甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/12 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2026/01/0 5 801 2233 2205 2350 - 2315 2448 258 320 25 -2 - 2026/01/0 6 801 2275 2248 2350 - 2345 2450 266 322 22 10 - 2026/01/0 7 801 2285 2250 2350 - 2345 2443 268 322 8 0 - 2026/01/0 8 801 2230 2220 2340 - 2345 2448 264 322 -19 -10 - 2026/01/0 9 801 2250 2235 - - 2345 2430 267 - -20 -10 - 日度变化 0 20 15 - - 0 -18 3 - -1 0 - 观点 内地见底，港口交易大去库，但需注意到大去库前提是MTO开工高，目前MTO利润一般，压制甲醇高度；委内船月 度预计2-3船，8 -10w月均，关 ...

Price Performance - The latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, WTI Crude Oil, and LME Copper are 4493.85, 78.14, 2217.00, 1719.00, 59.12, and 12873.00 respectively, with changes of 64.50, 2.93, -81.00, 8.00, 1.36, and 53.00 [1] - The latest values of the US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, US Dollar to Japanese Yen, and US 10 - year TIPS are 99.14, 1.16, 1.34, 157.94, and 1.90 respectively, with changes of 0.27, -0.00, -0.00, 1.07, and -0.02 [1] Trading Data - The latest COMEX silver inventory, SHFE silver inventory, gold ETF holdings, and silver ETF holdings are 13677.46, 620.26, 1064.56, and 16308.48 respectively, with changes of -85.19, -17.39, -2.57, and 93.05 [1] - The payment directions of the deferred fees for Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold and silver are 1 and 2 respectively, with changes of 0.00 and 0.00 [1]

产 量 和 库 存 | | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2026/01/12 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2026/01/05 | 3130 | 3270 | 3300 | 3250 | 3470 | 3340 | | 2026/01/06 | 3120 | 3270 | 3300 | 3230 | 3470 | 3340 | | 2026/01/07 | 3180 | 3340 | 3370 | 3290 | 3540 | 3420 | | 2026/01/08 | 3190 | 3340 | 3400 | 3320 | 3540 | 3420 | | 2026/01/09 | 3150 | 3280 | 3340 | 3320 | 3540 | 3370 | | 变化 | -40 | -60 | -60 | 0 | 0 | -50 | | 日期 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices have significantly increased recently, driven by the expected US refined copper tariff and investment fund inflows. The future performance of copper prices will depend on terminal demand, US restocking, and China's demand recovery. It is expected to accumulate inventory steeply before the Spring Festival and deplete inventory quickly after the festival [1] - For aluminum, expected trading dominates the changes in futures and spot prices, with amplified price fluctuations. The actual domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously estimated, but strong expectations can support the current high prices [1][2] - Zinc's domestic fundamentals are poor, but there is a temporary reduction in supply at the end of the year. The price may not decline significantly. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities for internal - external trading, and positive arbitrage opportunities for monthly spreads [5] - Nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak, and there is a continuation of the game between short - term policies and fundamentals [7] - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak, and recent price movements are mainly driven by news of Indonesian quotas, following nickel prices in the short term [11] - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate. There are risks associated with low warehouse receipts, and attention should be paid to them [12] - Tin prices are expected to rise in the short term, with strong support from fundamentals. In the long term, demand determines the upside potential [13] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long term [16] - Lithium carbonate prices have risen recently, driven by potential disturbances in the resource end, increased processing fees, and macro - sentiment [19] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 5 - 9, 2026, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 0, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 1105, the SHFE inventory increased by 68840, and the LME inventory decreased by 2100 [1] - **Market Outlook**: The increase in copper prices is due to the expected US tariff and investment inflows. Future performance depends on demand and restocking [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 5 - 9, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 30, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price increased by 30, and the domestic aluminum oxide price decreased by 9. The SHFE social inventory increased by 15320 [1] - **Market Outlook**: Expected trading dominates price changes, with domestic apparent demand weaker than expected but high - price support from strong expectations [1][2] Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 5 - 9, 2026, the spot premium decreased by 10, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 140, and the SHFE inventory increased by 889 [5] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is tight in the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. Domestic smelters are competing for zinc ore inventory. Demand is seasonally weak domestically and generally average overseas [5] - **Strategy**: Wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage for internal - external trading, and positive arbitrage for monthly spreads [5] Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 5 - 9, 2026, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 9400, and the LME inventory increased by 8490 [6] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term fundamentals are weak, and there is a game between policies and fundamentals [7] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 5 - 9, 2026, the 304 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 100, and the 304 hot - rolled coil price decreased by 125 [11] - **Market Outlook**: Fundamentals are weak, and prices are mainly driven by news of Indonesian quotas, following nickel prices in the short term [11] Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 5 - 9, 2026, the spot premium decreased by 10, the SHFE inventory increased by 3016, and the LME inventory decreased by 3725 [12] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to weaken. There is a short - term supply - demand mismatch, but it is gradually being alleviated [12] - **Market Outlook**: Prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [12] Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 5 - 9, 2026, the spot import return decreased by 16694.67, and the LME inventory increased by 10 [12] - **Market Outlook**: Prices are expected to rise in the short term, with strong fundamental support. In the long term, demand determines the upside potential [13] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 5 - 9, 2026, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 180, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 96 [16] - **Market Outlook**: Prices are expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long term [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 5 - 9, 2026, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 1500, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 410 [19] - **Market Outlook**: Prices have risen recently, driven by resource - end disturbances, increased processing fees, and macro - sentiment [19]

焦煤日报 研究中心黑色团队 2026/1/12 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 年变化 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 柳林主焦 | 1403.00 | 0.00 | -47.00 | -102.00 | 0.21% Peak Downs | 229.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 7.50 | 27.50 | | 原煤口岸库提价 | 1040.00 | 6.00 | 80.00 | 118.00 | 12.43% Goonyella | 230.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 9.50 | 26.50 | | 沙河驿蒙5# | 1340.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -60.00 | -4.29% 盘面05 | 1204.00 | 68.00 | 88.50 | 120.00 | 5.29% | | 安泽主焦 | 1500.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.63% 盘面09 | ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: January 12, 2026 [3] 2. Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Data** - Closing price of BR main contract on January 9: 12,015, down 180 from the previous day and up 370 week - on - week [4] - Open interest on January 9: 26,339, down 3,889 from the previous day and down 13,898 week - on - week [4] - Trading volume on January 9: 101,221, down 66,416 from the previous day and up 13,867 week - on - week [4] - Warehouse receipt quantity on January 9: 24,330, unchanged from the previous day and up 1,170 week - on - week [4] - Long - short ratio on January 9: 5.41, down 1 from the previous day and down 3 week - on - week [4] - **Basis/Spread/Inter - variety Data** - Butadiene rubber basis on January 9: 185, up 130 from the previous day and up 30 week - on - week [4] - 02 - 03 spread on January 9: - 50, down 15 from the previous day and down 10 week - on - week [4] - 03 - 04 spread on January 9: - 20, down 5 from the previous day and down 5 week - on - week [4] - RU - BR spread on January 9: 4,015, up 90 from the previous day and down 130 week - on - week [4] - **Spot Data** - Shandong market price on January 9: 11,950, down 50 from the previous day and up 350 week - on - week [4] - Transfar market price on January 9: 11,900, down 50 from the previous day and up 350 week - on - week [4] - Qilu ex - factory price on January 9: 11,900, unchanged from the previous day and up 400 week - on - week [4] - CFR Northeast Asia price on January 9: 1,415, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week [4] - CFR Southeast Asia price on January 9: 1,635, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week [4] - **Profit Data** - Spot processing profit on January 9: 111, up 1 from the previous day and down 160 week - on - week [4] - Import profit on January 9: 286, down 26 from the previous day and up 355 week - on - week [4] - Export profit on January 9: 381, up 20 from the previous day and down 309 week - on - week [4] BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Data** - Shandong market price on January 9: 9,450, down 50 from the previous day and up 500 week - on - week [4] - Jiangsu market price on January 9: 9,250, down 50 from the previous day and up 500 week - on - week [4] - Yangzi ex - factory price on January 9: 9,100, unchanged from the previous day and up 300 week - on - week [4] - CFR China price on January 9: 1,005, unchanged from the previous day [4] - **Profit Data** - Ethylene cracking profit on January 9: N/A [4] - C4 extraction profit on January 9: N/A [4] - Butylene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on January 9: 590, up 20 from the previous day and up 640 week - on - week [4] - Import profit on January 9: 1,170, down 33 from the previous day [4] - Export profit on January 9: - 1,913, up 170 from the previous day and up 401 week - on - week [4] - Styrene - butadiene production profit on January 9: 888, unchanged from the previous day and up 150 week - on - week [4] - ABS production profit on January 9: N/A [4] - SBS production profit on January 9: - 382, unchanged from the previous day and up 60 week - on - week [4] 3. Data Source - Data sources: Mysteel, Wind [8]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term due to limited supply and downstream stocking expectations. In the long - term, import and domestic auction policies should be monitored [3]. - Starch prices are likely to be stable with a slight upward trend in the short - term. After the seasonal peak, inventory depletion will be the key factor for pricing [3]. - For sugar, the international market anticipates increased production in the 25/26 season. In the domestic market, short - term pricing depends on domestic sugar costs, while long - term pricing may move towards out - of - quota import costs [6]. - Cotton is suitable for long - term long positions as demand is expected to improve next year due to expanding textile production, good profits, and positive trade relations [9]. - For eggs, the key to future inventory decline is the culling rhythm. If culling accelerates, it will benefit egg prices in the second quarter [13]. - Apple prices show strong high - quality goods and weak general - quality goods. The short - term futures may maintain high - level fluctuations, and the medium - term pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term [16]. - For pigs, there is an expectation of both supply and demand increase before the Spring Festival. Price increases depend on further production and inventory reduction in the short - term [16] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Corn: From January 5 - 9, prices in some regions remained stable, with a 10 - unit increase in the蛇口 price. The basis increased by 3 units, trade profit by 10 units, and import profit by 35 units [2]. - Starch: From January 5 - 9, prices in some regions were unchanged, and the basis increased by 11 units, while processing profit remained the same [2] Sugar - From January 5 - 9, spot prices in some regions were stable. The basis decreased by 9 units, and import profit increased by 27 units. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - From January 5 - 9, the 3128 cotton price decreased by 100 units, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 250 units. The 32S spinning profit increased by 105 units [17]. Eggs - From January 5 - 9, prices in some regions increased slightly. The basis increased by 7 units, and the price of substitutes such as pigs increased by 0.08 units [13]. Apples - From January 5 - 9, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples was stable. The national inventory decreased by 158,000 tons, and Shandong inventory decreased by 21,000 tons [15][16]. Pigs - From January 5 - 9, prices in some regions had minor fluctuations, and the basis remained unchanged [16].

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 700.0 3.0 12.0 -70.0 -70.0 25省终端可用天数 20.4 -0.1 0.5 -0.5 2.8 秦皇岛5000 611.0 4.0 20.0 -58.0 -64.0 25省终端供煤 564.1 4.0 -44.4 -75.9 -58.7 广州港5500 810.0 0.0 0.0 -40.0 -60.0 北方港库存 2531.0 -8.0 -123.0 -239.0 216.6 鄂尔多斯5500 500.0 0.0 5.0 -35.0 -60.0 北方锚地船舶 92.0 8.0 27.0 16.0 11.0 大同5500 555.0 0.0 5.0 -35.0 -75.0 北方港调入量 140.6 -10.1 27.3 -20.4 6.4 榆林6000 690.0 0.0 0.0 -42.0 -67.0 北方港吞吐量 135.9 -3.9 -5.6 1.0 1.0 榆林6200 745.0 0.0 0.0 -15.0 -40.0 CBCFI海运指数 609.1 -2.7 -31.4 -34.1 ...

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2026/01/12 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/01/05 | 2161 | 2257 | 2035 | 2230 | 2213 | 2091 | | 2026/01/06 | 2161 | 2255 | 2036 | 2231 | 2213 | 2093 | | 2026/01/07 | 2163 | 2254 | 2036 | 2233 | 2213 | 2096 | | 2026/01/08 | 2170 | 2260 | 2041 | 2242 | 2214 | 2098 | | 2026/01/09 | 2170 | 2259 | 2043 | 2241 | 2214 | 2102 | | 环比 | 0 | -1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 4 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析 ...

周度变化 -28 12 42 -28 -14 -13 38 -335317 d89 5480 1.2 10 10 50 80 -47 2026 2020 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2021 2020 ·2021 -2022 2023 ·2024 2025 ·2026 BU03-06 BU02-03 200 100 80 1 20 60 100 40 50 20 0 -20 31 -50 -40 -100 -60 -150 -80 -200 -100 2020 2024 2020 2021 2022 2023 2025 2026 2021 2023 2025 2026 2022 2024 BU主力合约 BU远期结构 5000 3200 4500 3150 3100 4000 3050 3000 3500 2950 3000 2900 2850 S 2500 2800 9/1 3/1 4/1 7/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 5/1 6/1 8/1 BU01 BU02 BU03 BU04 BU05 BU06 -2020 -2021 -- 2022 -- 2023 -20 ...