Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The domestic market has a relatively high valuation. Although the domestic chemical industry has poor profits, the operating rate remains firm, and there is an expectation of a slight increase in civil demand, so there is still short - term support. Attention should also be paid to winter weather and oil price conditions [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Daily Changes - On Monday, for civil gas, the prices in East China were 4401 (-10), in Shandong 4500 (+0), and in South China 4460 (-10). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4540 (+70). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 91 (-52) and a 01 - 02 month spread of 71 (-8). As of 21:00, FEI was 528 (+2) and CP was 508 (+2) dollars/ton [1]. Weekly Views - The futures market fluctuated. The basis was 143 (+232), the 01 - 02 month spread was 79 (+3), and the 03 - 04 month spread was -211 (-19). The number of warehouse receipts was 4611 (-200) hands. Civil gas prices rose, and the cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4411 (+88). The external market FEI declined, while CP and MB increased, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. Both domestic and external markets weakened. PG - CP dropped to 100 (-21); PG - FEI dropped to 79 (-7). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The arrival premium of propane in East China was 97 (-2), and the FOB premiums of propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the US were 30 (+18.75), 25 (-13), and 43 dollars (+4) respectively. Freight rates decreased [1]. - PDH spot profits weakened, and the futures market profits declined; the alkylation unit improved; MTBE profits fluctuated. Port inventories decreased (-7%) due to a significant drop in incoming ships (-18%) and a slight increase in demand; refinery inventories increased slightly (+0.86%). The PDH operating rate was 70.22% (+0.4pct), the alkylation operating rate was 37.93% (+1pct), and the MTBE operating rate was 71.58% (+0) [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking in Singapore oscillated, the monthly spread ran at a historical low, strengthened slightly on Friday, the basis weakened and then strengthened slightly on Friday. The HSFO cracking in Europe oscillated and weakened, and the EW oscillated. The 0.5% cracking in Singapore weakened, with the monthly spread and basis oscillating at low levels [3]. - In terms of inventory, there was a slight increase in Singapore residue, a slight decrease in high - sulfur floating storage, a slight increase in ARA residue, a significant increase in Fujairah residue, a decrease in high - sulfur floating storage, and a slight increase in EIA residue [3][4]. - With the strengthening expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, the cracking of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline this week, and the price difference between low - sulfur and diesel continued to rebound [4]. - After the fire at the Al Zour refinery on October 21 and its subsequent shutdown, the external low - sulfur market faces support, but the short - term strengthening space is limited. The global heavy oil has entered the off - season for inventory accumulation. The external cracking is subject to crude oil fluctuations, and there is no improvement on the spot side. FU01 should be treated bearishly. The low - sulfur valuation is low but lacks a driving force [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fuel Oil Price Data - **Rotterdam**: From December 2 to December 8, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased from 348.23 to 349.63, with a change of 0.82; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased from 390.52 to 393.57, with a change of 1.90; other price indicators also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Singapore**: The price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased from 349.17 to 351.64, with a change of 2.60; the price of Singapore 180cst M1 increased from 356.17 to 359.58, with a change of 3.79; other price indicators also changed [1]. - **Singapore Fuel Oil Spot**: From December 2 to December 8, 2025, the FOB 380cst price increased from 337.62 to 343.53, with a change of 2.71; the FOB VLSFO price increased from 423.98 to 425.03, with a change of 3.30; other indicators also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Domestic FU**: The price of FU 01 increased from 2469 to 2508, with a change of 53; the price of FU 05 increased from 2532 to 2573, with a change of 48; other price indicators also changed [2]. - **Domestic LU**: The price of LU 01 increased from 3030 to 3071, with a change of 53; the price of LU 05 increased from 3053 to 3091, with a change of 54; other price indicators also changed [3]

、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担任何责任。 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 789.0 -7.0 -29.0 -31.0 -31.0 25省终端可用天数 23.3 0.0 3.4 2.4 5.7 秦皇岛5000 689.0 -8.0 -29.0 -39.0 -31.0 25省终端供煤 554.3 -1.4 -54.3 -85.8 -68.6 广州港5500 855.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 -40.0 北方港库存 2735.0 21.0 133.0 519.0 120.4 鄂尔多斯5500 535.0 -15.0 -40.0 -30.0 -75.0 北方锚地船舶 73.0 0.0 5.0 -39.0 35.0 大同5500 590.0 -10.0 -35.0 -25.0 -80.0 北方港调入量 163.8 22.7 -16.5 9.7 -3.3 榆林6000 732.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 -90.0 北方港吞吐量 161.5 36.5 1.0 1.5 -14.3 榆林6200 ...

波动率数据日报 1、金融期权隐含波动率指数反映截止上一交易日的30日隐波走势,商品期权隐含波动 率指数通过主力月平值期权上下两档隐波加权所得,反映主力合约的隐波变化趋势。2 隐波指数与历史波动率的差值,差值越大反映隐波相对历史波动率越高,差值越小代 表隐波相对历史波动率越低。 1 1000 1000 300 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 05 o.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 ore 0.7 0 a ● I 0 1 70 -300股指 -- 300股指 IV-HV差 - 50ETF - 50ETF IV-HV美 ZD 20 -- 1000股指 IV-HV差 500ETF -- 1000股指 - 500ETF IV-HV美 20 10 10 日报 IV-HV美 IV-HV美 tte rop Por 18/12/15 875/226 - 豆粕 IV-HV差 塑和 玉米 IV-HV差 王米 30 50 20 30 20 10 10 0 TO 10 10 30 40 IV-HV美 日 護 25 30 IV-HV美 棉花 棉花 25 20 20 20 10 15 5 0 ...

Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.136, UK 4.476, France 3.523, Germany 2.797, Italy 3.484, Spain 3.259, Switzerland 0.157, Greece 3.391, Japan 1.939, Brazil 6.197, China 1.831, South Korea 3.376, Australia 4.684, New Zealand 4.349 [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.561, UK 3.776, Germany 2.093, Japan 1.043, Italy 2.228, China (1Y yield) 1.400, South Korea 2.833, Australia 3.946 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.451, Russia (not provided), South Africa zar 16.934, South Korean won 1472.050, Thailand baht (not provided), Malaysian ringgit 4.111 [3] - The latest exchange rate - related data of the RMB: on - shore RMB 7.071, off - shore RMB 7.069, RMB central parity rate 7.075, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.934 [3] - The latest stock indices of major economies: S&P 500 6870.400, Dow Jones Industrial Average 47954.990, Nasdaq 23578.130, Mexican stock index 63378.300, UK stock index 9667.010, French CAC 8114.740, German DAX 24028.140, Spanish stock index 16688.500, Russian stock index (not provided), Nikkei 50491.870, Hang Seng Index 26085.080, Shanghai Composite Index 3902.808, Taiwan stock index 27980.890, South Korean stock index 4100.050, Indian stock index 8632.761, Thai stock index (not provided), Malaysian stock index 1616.520, Australian stock index 8926.127, emerging - economy stock index 1385.480 [3] - The latest credit - bond indices: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3535.540, euro - zone investment - grade credit - bond index 265.875, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 289.560, US high - yield credit - bond index 2901.450, euro - zone high - yield credit - bond index 409.330, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1806.999 [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 3902.81, up 0.70%; CSI 300 closing price 4584.54, up 0.84%; SSE 50 closing price 3002.01, up 0.93%; ChiNext closing price 3109.30, up 1.36%; CSI 500 closing price 7097.84, up 1.21% [4] - Valuation: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 is 14.02 with a 0.06环比 change; SSE 50 is 11.86 with a 0.04环比 change; CSI 500 is 32.35 with a 0.41环比 change; S&P 500 is 27.33 with a 0.05环比 change; German DAX is 18.61 with a 0.11环比 change [4] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.48 with a - 0.05环比 change; German DAX is 2.58 with a - 0.05环比 change [4] - Fund flow: The latest value of A - share fund flow is 759.67, the main board is 443.70, the ChiNext is 260.14, and CSI 300 is 197.37. The 5 - day average of A - share fund flow is - 395.38, the main board is - 294.49, the ChiNext is - 74.98, and CSI 300 is 17.56 [4] - Transaction amount: The latest transaction amount of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 17257.71 with a 1768.11环比 change; CSI 300 is 4121.47 with a 633.80环比 change; SSE 50 is 1104.47 with a 218.25环比 change; small - and - medium - sized board is 3269.66 with a 132.41环比 change; ChiNext is 4717.40 with a 600.12环比 change [5] - Main contract basis and spread: IF basis is - 10.14, amplitude - 0.22%; IH basis is - 4.61, amplitude - 0.15%; IC basis is - 14.64, amplitude - 0.21% [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Closing prices and price changes: T2303 closing price is 108.06, up 0.06%; TF2303 closing price is 105.72, up 0.10%; T2306 closing price is 107.87, up 0.19%; TF2306 closing price is 105.76, up 0.15% [5] - Fund interest rates: R001 is 1.3719% with a - 12.00 BP daily change; R007 is 1.4963% with a 1.00 BP daily change; SHIBOR - 3M is 1.5800% with a 0.00 BP daily change [5]

Group 1: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Information - The price of the BR main contract (12) on 12/5 was 10410, with a daily change of -45 and an interval change of 100 compared to 11/5 [3][12]. - The holding volume on 12/5 was 30197, with a daily change of -1872 and an interval change of -18607 [3][12]. - The trading volume on 12/5 was 65443, with a daily change of -26058 and an interval change of -58373 [3][12]. - The warrant quantity on 12/5 was 13320, with a daily change of -100 and an interval change of -2520 [3][12]. - The virtual - real ratio on 12/5 was 11.34, with a daily change of -1 and an interval change of -4 [3][12]. Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety - The cis - butadiene spread on 12/5 was 40, with a daily change of 45 and an interval change of -50 [3][12]. - The butadiene spread on 12/5 was 540, with a daily change of 45 and an interval change of -50 [3][12]. - The 12 - 01 spread on 12/5 was -35, with a daily change of 40 and an interval change of 60 [3][12]. - The 01 - 02 spread on 12/5 was -25, with a daily change of -30 and an interval change of -25 [3][12]. - The RU - BR spread on 12/5 was 4655, with a daily change of 70 and an interval change of -285 [3][12]. - The NR - BR spread on 12/5 was 1635, with a daily change of 120 and an interval change of -225 [3][12]. Spot Market - The Shandong market price on 12/5 was 10450, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of 50 [3][12]. - The Transfar market price on 12/5 was 10400, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of 150 [3][12]. - The Qilu ex - factory price on 12/5 was 10600, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of 200 [3][12]. - The CFR Northeast Asia price on 12/5 was 1300, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of -25 [3][12]. - The CFR Southeast Asia price on 12/5 was 1575, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of -25 [3][12]. Profit - The spot processing profit on 12/5 was 906, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of 101 [3][12]. - The import profit on 12/5 was -442, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of 250 [3][12]. - The export profit on 12/5 was 1401, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of -220 [3][12]. Group 2: BD (Butadiene) Spot Market - The Shandong market price on 12/5 was 7200 (the original text had an unclear value on 11/5), with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of -50 [3][12]. - The Jiangsu market price on 12/5 was 7050 (the original text had an unclear interval change value), with a daily change of 0 [3][12]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price on 12/5 was 7100, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of 0 [3][12]. - The CFR China price on 12/5 was 850, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of 30 [3][12]. Profit - The ethylene cracking profit on 12/3 was -65, and data for 12/4 and 12/5 were unavailable [3][12]. - The carbon - four extraction profit on 12/4 was 202, and data for 12/5 were unavailable [3][12]. - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on 12/5 was -1764, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of 25 [3][12].

沂期欧线现货情况: 手家早报 | | | | | | AND IN | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/8 | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 募 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓管 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2512 | | 1658.6 | 0.58% | -175.0 | 443 | | 3500 | -231 | | | EC2602 | | 1609.9 | 1.57% | -126.3 | 37284 | | 32215 | -2007 | | | EC2604 | | 1092.9 | 0.26% | 390.8 | 4598 | | 19350 | 229 | | | EC2606 | | 1252.5 | -0.21% | 231.2 | 180 | | 2108 | -33 | | | EC2608 | | 1367.1 | -1.34% | 116.6 | 88 | | 1226 | 10 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic market has a relatively high valuation. Although the domestic chemical industry has poor profits, its operation remains stable, and there is an expectation of a slight increase in civil demand. Therefore, there is still short - term support for the driving force. Attention should also be paid to winter weather and oil price conditions [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Daily Changes - On Friday, in the civil gas market, the price in East China was 4411 (+0), in Shandong was 4500 (+20), and in South China was 4470 (-50). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4470 (+10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 79 (-22), and the 01 - 02 month difference was 79 (+0). As of 15:00, FEI was 516 (-1) and CP was 498 (-4) dollars/ton [1] 3.2 Weekly Views - The futures market fluctuated. The basis was 143 (+232), the 01 - 02 month difference was 79 (+3), and the 03 - 04 month difference was -211 (-19). The number of warehouse receipts was 4611 lots (-200). The price of civil gas increased, and the cheapest deliverable product was East China civil gas at 4411 (+88). The external market FEI declined, while CP and MB increased, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. Both domestic and international markets weakened. The PG - CP spread reached 100 (-21); the PG - FEI spread reached 79 (-7). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened [1] - The arrival premium of propane in East China was 97 (-2), and the FOB premiums of propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 30 (+18.75), 25 (-13), and 43 dollars (+4) respectively. Freight rates declined. The spot profit of PDH weakened, and the futures profit decreased; the alkylation unit improved; the MTBE profit fluctuated [1] - Port inventories decreased (-7%) due to a significant drop in arrivals (-18%) and a slight increase in demand; refinery inventories increased slightly (+0.86%). The PDH operating rate was 70.22% (+0.4pct), the alkylation operating rate was 37.93% (+1pct), and the MTBE operating rate was 71.58% (+0) [1]

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纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/08 | 日期 | 2025/12/05 | 2025/12/04 | 2025/12/03 | 2025/12/02 | 2025/12/01 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5450.00 | 5496.00 | 5458.00 | 5328.00 | 5190.00 | | 折美元价 | 679.27 | 679.27 | 674.79 | 658.04 | 640.65 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -0.83697% | 0.69623% | 2.43994% | 2.65896% | -0.15391% | | 山东银星基差 | 50 | 29 | 67 | 97 | 185 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 115 | 79 | 67 | 97 | 195 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 加拿大 | 金狮 | CFR | 780 ...