Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on January 9, 2026 [1][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 9, 2026, the domestic spot price was 101970, the LME spot price was 12837, and the spot ratio was 8.01. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 7.93, with a loss of 941.12. The loss for spot export was 1194.91 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 24180, the LME spot price was 3126, and the spot ratio was 7.73. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.35, with a loss of 1929.08 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 24000, the LME spot price was 3064, and the spot ratio was 7.83. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.35, with a loss of 1591.59 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 146650, the LME spot price was 16961, and the spot ratio was 8.65. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.02, with a profit of 1776.70 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17350, the LME spot price was 1988, and the spot ratio was 8.70. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.59, with a profit of 228.79 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next month, the third month, the fourth month, and the fifth month and the spot month were - 1950, - 1920, - 1940, - 2010 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 618, 1134, 1659, 2183 [3] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 340, - 305, - 270, - 250 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 225, 355, 486, 616 [3] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 625, - 585, - 540, - 495 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 233, 367, 500, 634 [3] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 420, - 385, - 350, - 345 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 324, 433, 543 [3] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 10960, - 10810, - 10510, - 10150 respectively [3] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 900, and the theoretical spread was 7176 [3] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month contract, the next - month contract and the spot were 1145, - 805 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 378, 656 [3] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 135, - 205 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 69, 209 [3] - **Lead**: The spreads were 405, - 15 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 158, 273 [3] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On January 9, 2026, for cross - variety arbitrage, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) were 4.22, 4.26, 5.83, 0.99, 1.37, 0.72 respectively, and in London (three - continuous) were 4.06, 4.12, 6.28, 0.99, 1.53, 0.65 respectively [5]

变造资料等,我司均不承担任何责任。 华东基差(镇江库) 山乐县差 (+80) 2022 2021 2023 2024 2020 2025 华南基差(佛山库) 山东基差 安南县 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 10/1 11/1 9/1 -100 -200 -300 -300 研究中心能化团队 2026/1/9 周度变化 80 100 120 16 -1 31 110 73282 39668 2990 #N/A 110 190 210 230 #N/A 2026 2020 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2021 2020 ·2021 -2022 2023 ·2024 2025 ·2026 BU03-06 BU02-03 200 100 80 1 20 60 100 40 50 20 0 -20 -50 -40 -100 -60 -150 -80 -200 -100 2020 2024 2020 2021 2022 2023 2025 2026 2021 2023 2025 2026 2022 2024 BU主力合 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - In the short - term, corn prices may rise again due to downstream seasonal restocking after New Year's Day, and long - term price trends depend on import and domestic auction policies. Starch prices are expected to strengthen slightly in the near future, and long - term prices depend on downstream consumption rhythm [3] - Egg prices could benefit in the second quarter if there is a concentrated culling of hens before Laba Festival. The key driver is the culling rhythm [6] - Apple prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the short - term, with a near - strong and far - weak pattern in the medium - term due to consumer competition [9] - Short - term pig market sentiment is weak, and stage supply - demand mismatches may still exist in January. Long - term expectations depend on further production and inventory reduction [9] - Short - term sugar prices can be priced based on domestic sugar costs and spot prices, and may decline to the cost of out - of - quota imports if the global sugar surplus deepens [10] - Cotton is suitable for long - term long positions as initial inventory is low and demand is expected to improve next year [10] Group 3: Corn/Starch Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, corn prices in some regions remained stable, with a 20 - unit change in蛇口 price, a - 18 change in basis, and a 20 change in trade profit. Starch basis decreased by 8, and processing profit remained unchanged [2] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn prices are affected by policy and supply, with strong basis and potential for price increase due to downstream restocking. Starch prices are weak due to slow de - stocking, but may strengthen slightly later [3] - Long - term: Corn prices depend on import and auction policies, and starch prices depend on downstream consumption rhythm [3] Group 4: Eggs Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, egg prices in some regions increased, with a - 16 change in basis, and slight changes in substitute prices [5] Market Analysis - The key to egg price trends is the culling rhythm of hens. Concentrated culling before Laba Festival may benefit second - quarter prices [6] Group 5: Apples Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, apple spot prices remained stable, basis changed, and inventory decreased slightly [8][9] Market Analysis - Short - term: The apple market has a weak trading atmosphere, but prices are firm, and the futures market may maintain high - level oscillations [9] - Medium - term: The market has a near - strong and far - weak pattern due to consumer competition [9] Group 6: Pigs Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, pig prices in some regions changed slightly, with a - 35 change in basis [9] Market Analysis - Short - term: Market sentiment is weak after New Year's Day, but there may be supply - demand mismatches in January [9] - Long - term: Expectations depend on further production and inventory reduction [9] Group 7: Sugar Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, sugar spot prices changed slightly, basis increased by 2, import profit changed, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [10] Market Analysis - Short - term: Sugar prices can be priced based on domestic sugar costs and spot prices [10] - Long - term: Prices may decline to the cost of out - of - quota imports if the global sugar surplus deepens [10] Group 8: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, cotton prices changed, import profit and other indicators also changed [10] Market Analysis - Cotton is suitable for long - term long positions as initial inventory is low and demand is expected to improve next year [10]

焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2026/1/8 免责声明 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分 析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资 建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突。未经我司 70.00 75.00 80.00 85.00 90.00 95.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 247家高炉产能利用率 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 190.00 200.00 210.00 220.00 230.00 240.00 250.00 260.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 铁水产量 2021 2022 2023 2024 202 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No relevant content provided. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Profit - Presents the spot prices of various types of steel (including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Xi'an, Guangzhou, and Wuhan for rebar; Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong for hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils) from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, along with the price changes of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils [1] Production and Inventory No relevant content provided. Basis and Calendar Spread No relevant content provided.

Group 1: Price Performance - London platinum's latest price is 2362.00 with a change of 116.00; London palladium's latest price is 1773.00 with a change of 51.00; LME copper's latest price is 13120.50 with a change of -251.50 [3] - The latest value of the US dollar index is 98.74 with a change of 0.14; the latest value of euro - US dollar exchange rate is 1.17 with a change of - 0.00; the latest value of pound - US dollar exchange rate is 1.35 with a change of - 0.00; the latest value of US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate is 156.78 with a change of 0.11 [3] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX silver's latest inventory is 13863.98 with a change of -108.05; SHFE silver's latest inventory is 553.43 with a change of -28.01 [4] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1067.13 with no change; silver ETF's latest holding is 16099.83 with a change of -18.33 [4] - The deferred fee payment direction of SGE gold's latest data is 1 with a change of -1.00; the deferred fee payment direction of SGE silver's latest data is 2 with no change [4]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Pulp Morning Report [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Report date: January 8, 2026 [2] Group 2: SP Main Contract Closing Price - Closing price on January 7, 2026: 5596.00 [3] - Closing prices from January 5 to December 30, 2025: 5530.00, 5612.00, 5532.00, 5568.00 [3] - Dollar - converted prices and daily changes from January 5 to December 30, 2025: 692.18 (-0.03615%), 702.51 (1.48282%), 691.61 (-0.64655%), 696.05 (1.05263%) [3] - Shandong Yinxing basis and Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis from January 5 to December 30, 2025: 35, -22, 58, 22; 30, -22, 28, -8 [3] Group 3: Import Information - Import profit calculation based on 13% VAT: Canada's Golden Lion (CFR, port price 780, Shandong RMB price 6300, profit 69.01), Canada's Lion (CFR, port price 730, Shandong RMB price 5590, profit -246.05), Chile's Yinxing (CFR 90 - day credit, port price 700, Shandong RMB price 5590, profit -9.09) [4] - Exchange rate on the previous day: 6.99 [4] Group 4: Price Averages - National and Shandong price averages of different pulp types from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026: no change in all types including softwood, hardwood, natural, and chemimechanical pulp [4] - Price indexes of cultural paper, packaging paper, and living paper from December 31, 2025, to January 7, 2026: no change in cultural and packaging paper indexes; living paper index changed from 859 to 863 and back to 859 [4] Group 5: Profit Margins - Profit margins of different paper types from December 31, 2025, to January 7, 2026: double - offset paper margin changed from -4.8428% to -5.3540%, double - copper paper margin changed from 5.6167% to 5.1750%, white cardboard margin changed from -9.2148% to -9.7229%, living paper margin changed from 4.1121% to 3.9350% [4] Group 6: Price Spreads - Price spreads between different pulp types from January 7 to December 30, 2025: softwood - hardwood spread 850.00, 890, 890, 915, 930; softwood - natural spread 190, 190, 165, 190, 190; softwood - chemimechanical spread 1715, 1715, 1690, 1740, 1740; softwood - waste paper spread 4014, 4014, 3989, 4014, 4014 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint - No information provided 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - For silicon iron, on January 8, 2026, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 were 5370 and 5350 respectively, with daily changes of 100 and 70 and weekly changes of 70 and 30. The export price of Tianjin 72 was 1025 (USD), with a weekly change of 5 [2]. - For silicon manganese, on January 8, 2026, the latest prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, Guangxi 6517, Guizhou 6517, and Yunnan 6517 were 5650, 5600, 5720, 5700, and 5680 respectively, with daily changes of 20, 40, 20, 20, and 0, and weekly changes of 0, 30, -30, 0, and -20 [2]. Supply - The monthly production of 136 silicon iron enterprises in China from 2022 - 2026 is presented, and the weekly production of 136 silicon iron enterprises in China (with a capacity - share of 95%) from 2022 - 2026 is also shown. The monthly capacity utilization rates of 136 silicon iron production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2022 - 2026 are provided [5]. - The weekly production of silicon manganese in China from 2022 - 2026 is presented, and the monthly procurement volume and price of silicon manganese 6517 by Hebei Iron and Steel Group from 2022 - 2026 are also shown [7]. Demand - The monthly estimated and revised production of crude steel in China from 2022 - 2026, the monthly production of stainless - steel crude steel in China from 2022 - 2026, and the monthly procurement volume of FeSi75 - B by Hebei Iron and Steel Group from 2022 - 2026 are presented. The monthly demand for silicon manganese in China from 2022 - 2026 is also shown [5][8]. Inventory - The weekly inventory of 60 silicon iron sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi from 2022 - 2026 is presented. Also, the daily warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of silicon iron from 2022 - 2026 are provided. The monthly average available days of silicon iron inventory in East China, South China, North China, and China from 2022 - 2026 are shown [6]. - The daily warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of silicon manganese from 2022 - 2026 are presented. The weekly inventory of 63 silicon manganese sample enterprises in China from 2022 - 2026 and the monthly average available days of silicon manganese inventory in China from 2022 - 2026 are also provided [8]. Cost - Profit - The electricity prices in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2022 - 2026, the market mainstream price of small - sized blue coke in Shaanxi from 2022 - 2026, the production cost and profit of silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2022 - 2026, and the export profit of 75 - grade silicon iron from 2022 - 2026 are presented [6]. - The profits of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the North Region, and the South Region from 2022 - 2026, the prices of chemical coke, manganese ore, and other raw materials from 2022 - 2026, and the profit of Guangxi silicon manganese converted to the main contract from 2022 - 2026 are shown [7][8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the crude oil market faces geopolitical risk uncertainties due to the US - Venezuela event. The Venezuelan sea area's imports and exports will be affected by the blockade, and Iran has issued a strong condemnation with the escalation of the Israel - Iran situation. Supply may decline in the short - term if Venezuela enters a political transition, but the low absolute value of its output won't change the global surplus pattern in Q1. The price may be affected by logistics disruptions and geopolitical premiums but has limited upside elasticity. [6] - In the long - term, with political stability, new licenses, stable diluent logistics, and the expansion of US oil companies' operations, Venezuela's oil production could increase to 120 - 130 barrels per day within half a year. It may become the largest supply increase uncertainty in 2026 - 2027. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Data - From 2025/12/30 to 2026/01/07, WTI decreased by 1.14, BRENT by 0.74, and DUBAI by 0.81. Other related prices also showed corresponding changes. For example, SC decreased by 11.90, and domestic gasoline decreased by 40.00. [3] b. Daily News - US Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced on January 7 that the US will "indefinitely" control Venezuelan oil sales, aiming to stabilize and increase its production. The Trump administration also considers establishing a compensation mechanism for US oil companies investing in Venezuela. [3] - US Attorney General Bondi said on January 8 that the US executed a seizure order on the "BELLA 1" oil tanker. The department is monitoring other vessels for similar actions. [4] - According to a source close to the White House, Venezuelan oil sales will continue indefinitely, and US sanctions on Venezuela will be reduced. Venezuela has a large proven oil reserve but a current daily output of about 800,000 barrels. [4] c. Inventory - In the week of January 2, US crude exports increased by 823,000 barrels per day to 4.263 million barrels per day, while domestic production decreased by 16,000 barrels to 13.811 million barrels per day. [5] - Commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.832 million barrels to 419 million barrels, a 0.91% decline. The strategic petroleum reserve increased by 245,000 barrels to 413.5 million barrels, a 0.06% increase. [5] - The average four - week supply of US crude products was 19.871 million barrels per day, a 1.86% decrease from the previous year. [5] d. Weekly Viewpoints - Before the holiday, crude oil prices fluctuated. On January 2, foreign - market crude oil closed lower. The US - Venezuela event escalated over the weekend, bringing geopolitical uncertainties to the market. [5][6] - In the short - term, Venezuelan production may decline, but it won't change the global surplus pattern. In the long - term, production may increase, but the investment attitude of the industry is cautious. [6]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - For methanol, the inland market has bottomed out, and the port is trading on significant inventory reduction. However, the pre - condition for large - scale inventory reduction is high MTO operation. Currently, MTO profit is average, which suppresses the upside of methanol. Venezuelan shipments are expected to be 2 - 3 vessels per month, with an average of 80,000 - 100,000 tons per month. Short - term shipments may remain normal. Attention should also be paid to changes in oil prices. The current limited upside of methanol is due to the poor performance of other downstream sectors, and if oil prices drive up other products, it may lift the price ceiling [2] - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. The two major oil companies and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The basis for the 09 contract is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas market in Europe and the US is stable, as is Southeast Asia. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price spreads are oscillating, with LD weakening. The number of September maintenance is the same as the previous period. Recently, the domestic linear production has decreased. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [7] - For polypropylene, the upstream two major oil companies and the middle - stream are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price spread is neutral. The European and US markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, the propylene price is oscillating, and the powder production operation rate is stable. The拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7] - For PVC, the basis is maintained at - 270 for the 01 contract, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. The downstream operation rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. The northwest plants have seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability. The recent near - end export orders have slightly decreased. The coal market sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance; the counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operation rates [7] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price data includes various spot prices (e.g., Jiangsu, South China, Lunan, etc.), CFR prices, import profit, and主力基差. There are also daily changes in prices. For example, the South China spot price increased by 10, and the Northwest discounted price decreased by 7 [2] Polyethylene - Price and inventory data for different regions and types of polyethylene, such as Northeast Asian ethylene, North China LL, East China LL, etc. The daily change in the North China LL price is 80, and the two - oil inventory increased by 216. The overall inventory situation is as described in the core views [7] Polypropylene - Price data including Shandong propylene, Northeast Asian propylene, East China PP, etc. The daily change in East China PP price is 60, and the主力期货 price increased by 63. The inventory and valuation situations are as described in the core views [7] PVC - Price and profit - related data such as Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, different production - method prices in different regions, import and export profits, etc. The daily change in Northwest calcium carbide price is 50, and the East China calcium carbide - based price increased by 70. The basis, inventory, and other situations are as described in the core views [7]