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永安合成橡胶早报-20250828
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 02:37
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Yong'an Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: August 28, 2025 [3] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data Contract Information - On August 27, the closing price of the main BR contract was 11,710, a daily decrease of 135 and a weekly decrease of 5 [4] - The open interest of the main contract was 39,912, a daily decrease of 3,208 and a weekly increase of 4,221 [4] - The trading volume of the main contract was 94,999, a daily decrease of 17,448 and a weekly decrease of 74,065 [4] Price and Basis - The warehouse receipt quantity remained at 12,470, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 280 [4] - The virtual - to - real ratio was 16.00, a daily decrease of 1 [4] - The butadiene rubber basis was 90, a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly increase of 205 [4] - The butadiene rubber basis (two major oil companies) was 390, a daily increase of 135 and a weekly increase of 205 [4] - The styrene - butadiene rubber basis was 690, with a daily increase of 8 [4] - The August - September spread was 275, a daily increase of 100 [4] - The September - October spread was - 10, a daily increase of 5 [4] Market Prices - The Shandong market price was 11,800, a daily decrease of 150 and a weekly increase of 200 [4] - The Chuanhua market price was 11,700, a daily decrease of 150 and a weekly increase of 200 [4] - The Qilu ex - factory price was 12,100, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 200 [4] Processing and Trade Profits - The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,475, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 25 [4] - The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,725, with no daily and weekly changes [4] - The spot processing profit was - 90, a daily decrease of 99 and a weekly decrease of 14 [4] - The on - screen processing profit was - 180, a daily decrease of 84 and a weekly decrease of 219 [4] - The import profit was - 86,509, a daily decrease of 109 and a weekly decrease of 1,110 [4] - The export profit was - 366, a daily increase of 126 and a weekly decrease of 27 [4] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Data Market Prices - The Shandong market price was 9,500, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly increase of 210 [4] - The Jiangsu market price was 9,300, a daily decrease of 200 and a weekly increase of 50 [4] - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,500, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 100 [4] - The CFR China price was 1,095, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 15 [4] Processing and Trade Profits - The carbon - four extraction profit was N/A [4] - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 406, a daily decrease of 200 [4] - The import profit was 299, a daily decrease of 196 and a weekly decrease of 44 [4] - The export profit was - 909, a daily increase of 278 and a weekly increase of 113 [4] Downstream Profits - The butadiene rubber production profit was - 180, a daily decrease of 84 and a weekly decrease of 219 [4] - The styrene - butadiene rubber production profit was 1,075, a daily increase of 13 and a weekly increase of 138 [4] - The ABS production profit was N/A [4] - The SBS production profit (791 - H) was 1,090, a daily increase of 15 and a weekly decrease of 25 [4] Group 4: Spread Data Inter - Variety Spreads - The RU - BR spread was - 24,152, a daily increase of 3,083 and a weekly decrease of 4,136 [4] - The NR - BR spread was - 27,297, a daily increase of 3,033 and a weekly decrease of 4,131 [4] - The Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 2,900, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 30 [4] - The 3L - styrene - butadiene rubber spread was 2,600, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 100 [4] Intra - Variety Spreads - The butadiene rubber standard - non - standard price spread was 250, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 100 [4] - The styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 - 1712 spread was 900, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 50 [4]
有色套利早报-20250828
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 01:10
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2) Core View The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on August 28, 2025, offering data support for potential arbitrage opportunities [1][4][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 28, 2025, the domestic spot price was 79,520, the LME price was 9,728, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.14 with a profit of 90.69; the three - month domestic price was 79,190, the LME price was 9,818, and the ratio was 8.09 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,270, the LME price was 2,795, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.62 with a loss of 1,839.43; the three - month domestic price was 22,310, the LME price was 2,803, and the ratio was 6.03 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,840, the LME price was 2,641, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.43 with a loss of 1,417.39; the three - month domestic price was 20,790, the LME price was 2,636, and the ratio was 7.91 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 121,100, the LME price was 15,091, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.22 with a loss of 2,251.12 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,725, the LME price was 1,945, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.82 with a loss of 389.50; the three - month domestic price was 16,880, the LME price was 1,987, and the ratio was 11.24 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 28, 2025, the spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were - 40, - 40, - 90, and - 100 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 498, 894, 1299, and 1705 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 25, 25, 25, and 0 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 335, 455, and 576 respectively [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 70, 50, 20, and - 10 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 330, 446, and 562 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were - 20, - 30, - 20, and 5 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 315, 421, and 526 respectively [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were 1,580, 1,710, 1,860, and 2,150 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 550, and the theoretical spread was 5,634 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 245 and - 285 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 289 and 723 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 15 and 40 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 149 and 279 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 185 and 165 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 166 and 278 respectively [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking On August 28, 2025, for cross - variety arbitrage, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.55, 3.81, 4.69, 0.93, 1.23, and 0.76 respectively, and in London (three - continuous) were 3.53, 3.75, 4.92, 0.94, 1.31, and 0.72 respectively [5].
动力煤早报-20250828
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 01:08
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View - Not provided in the given content 3) Summary by Relevant Data Coal Prices - Qinhuangdao 5500: Latest price is 701.0, with a daily change of -1.0, weekly change of -1.0, monthly change of 49.0, and annual change of -139.0 [1] - Qinhuangdao 5000: Latest price is 623.0, with a daily change of -3.0, weekly change of -10.0, monthly change of 36.0, and annual change of -112.0 [1] - Guangzhou Port 5500: Latest price is 765.0, with no daily or weekly change, monthly change of 30.0, and annual change of -135.0 [1] - Ordos 5500: Latest price is 470.0, with a daily change of -5.0, weekly change of -20.0, monthly change of 45.0, and annual change of -140.0 [1] - Datong 5500: Latest price is 525.0, with a daily change of -5.0, weekly change of -35.0, monthly change of 25.0, and annual change of -165.0 [1] - Yulin 6000: Latest price is 602.0, with no daily change, weekly change of -20.0, monthly change of 20.0, and annual change of -177.0 [1] - Yulin 6200: Latest price is 630.0, with no daily change, weekly change of -20.0, monthly change of 20.0, and annual change of -175.0 [1] Terminal Data - 25 - province terminal available days: Latest is 19.6, with a daily change of 0.4, weekly change of -0.3, monthly change of -1.3, and annual change of 2.0 [1] - 25 - province terminal coal supply: Latest is 614.5, with a daily change of -0.8, weekly change of 6.0, monthly change of -25.5, and annual change of -8.3 [1] - 25 - province terminal daily consumption: Latest is 607.4, with a daily change of -12.3, weekly change of -35.8, monthly change of -38.6, and annual change of -47.0 [1] - 25 - province terminal inventory: Latest is 11923.8, with a daily change of -3.5, weekly change of -896.7, monthly change of -1580.7, and annual change of 406.3 [1] Northern Port Data - Northern port inventory: Latest is 2027.0, with a daily change of -10.0, weekly change of -26.0, monthly change of -263.0, and annual change of -173.4 [1] - Northern anchored ships: Latest is 78.0, with a daily change of 8.0, weekly change of 11.0, monthly change of -20.0, and annual change of -10.0 [1] - Northern port inbound volume: Latest is 153.0, with a daily change of -3.6, weekly change of 3.3, monthly change of 11.0, and annual change of 3.7 [1] - Northern port throughput: Latest is 143.8, with a daily change of -9.7, weekly change of -12.8, monthly change of -21.1, and annual change of -11.5 [1] Shipping Index and Freight Rates - CBCFI shipping index: Latest is 742.7, with a daily change of -28.3, weekly change of -93.7, monthly change of -17.5, and annual change of 147.4 [1] - Qinhuangdao - Shanghai (4 - 5DWT): Latest freight rate is 28.6, with a daily change of -1.3, weekly change of -4.2, monthly change of -1.3, and annual change of 6.2 [1] - Qinhuangdao - Guangzhou (5 - 6DWT): Latest freight rate is 44.0, with a daily change of -1.5, weekly change of -4.7, monthly change of 1.1, and annual change of 8.3 [1]
永安期货集运早报-20250827
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 08:16
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall situation in September is loose, and the subsequent driving force continues to be weak. However, the valuation in October has gradually approached the annual low (1250 - 1300), and the downside space may be limited. Attention can be paid to the long - allocation opportunity of the 12 - contract [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: The closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 decreased by 2.88%, 3.11%, 1.84%, 0.85%, and 2.01% respectively. The trading volume of EC2510 was 25,779, and the open - interest changes of different contracts varied, with EC2510 increasing by 52, EC2604 increasing by 133, etc. [2] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread of EC2510 - 2512 increased by 13.7 compared with the previous day and 95.9 compared with the previous week. The spread of EC2512 - 2602 decreased by 25.2 compared with the previous day and 69.3 compared with the previous week [2] Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The prices of Telinit SCH (European Line) on August 25th and 22nd were 1990.2 and 1668 dollars/TEU respectively, with a decrease of 8.71% and 8.35% compared with the previous periods. The CCFI on August 22nd was 1757.74 points, a decrease of 1.85% compared with the previous period, and the NCFI was 1083.74 points, a decrease of 8.83% compared with the previous period [2] Shipping Market Weekly Situation - **Booking Situation**: Downstream is currently booking shipping space for the end of August and early September (week35 - 36). The final average price of week35 is 2550 dollars (1800 points), and the current average quoted price of week36 is 2300 dollars (1600 points). Different alliances and shipping companies have different price ranges [2] - **Capacity Situation**: The weekly average capacity in September and October 2025 is 300,000 and 320,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended sailings, it is 290,000 and 290,000 TEU. On August 26th, the suspension of the FE4 route of the PA alliance in week38 of September was filled by HMM AOUAMARINE, increasing the weekly average capacity in September to 305,000 TEU [2] Recent European Line Quotation Situation - **Week35**: The average landed price is 2575 dollars (1770 points) [3] - **Week36**: The latest quoted price of shipping companies ranges from 2120 to 2420 dollars, with an average of 2250 dollars (1550 points). Different alliances and shipping companies have different price ranges [3] - **Week37**: The opening quoted price of MSK is 1900 dollars (1300 points) [3] Related News - On August 23rd, US President Trump announced a major tariff investigation on imported furniture, and the tax rate is to be determined. On August 26th, Trump said dealing with Netanyahu was difficult and expected a good and clear outcome in 2 - 3 weeks. Also on August 26th, Trump threatened to impose up to 200% tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the US if rare - earth magnet exports were restricted [4]
燃料油早报-20250827
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 06:18
Report Overview Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst weakened, and the near - month spread weakened (9 - 10 at 0.75 USD/ton, 10 - 11 at 3.25 USD/ton). The LU maintained a weak trend, with the external MF0.5 basis oscillating at a low level and LU internal - external spread oscillating. The low - sulfur cracking weakened, and the spread oscillated (9 - 10 at 2 USD/ton, 10 - 11 at 2.75 USD/ton). The LU internal - external spread strengthened slightly to 10 USD. [5][6] - Fundamentally, Singapore's land - based residue inventory continued to decline, floating storage inventory decreased significantly, and low - sulfur floating storage increased. In July, Singapore's high - sulfur bunkering volume increased by 15% month - on - month and 10% year - on - year. The land - based inventory in Fujairah, Middle East decreased significantly, and floating storage decreased significantly. This week, Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased month - on - month, and UAE's shipments oscillated. The US residue inventory increased slightly but remained at the lowest level in the same period of history, ARA ports decreased slightly, and floating storage increased slightly. [6] - The global supply - demand of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. Due to logistics reshaping, the demand for high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provided support, and the EW spread was still being repaired. The FU delivery volume was still relatively large, and attention should be paid to subsequent delivery changes. The new round of sanctions had a relatively large potential impact on domestic heavy crude oil, providing some support for Asian fuel oil valuation. In the short term, opportunities for the expansion of high - sulfur 380 EW could still be monitored. [6] Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Name | Price on 2025/08/20 | Price on 2025/08/26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 386.27 | 382.78 | - 11.30 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 447.87 | 451.36 | - 9.65 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 5.40 | - 6.40 | - 0.35 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 647.20 | 652.30 | - 15.02 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 199.33 | - 200.94 | 5.37 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 22.39 | 22.75 | - 0.40 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 61.60 | 68.58 | 1.65 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Name | Price on 2025/08/20 | Price on 2025/08/26 | | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 388.83 | 393.61 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 402.12 | 407.23 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 475.48 | 480.94 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 84.72 | 85.48 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 4.63 | - 4.69 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 151.45 | - 151.61 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Name | Price on 2025/08/20 | Price on 2025/08/26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 386.10 | 396.25 | - 0.90 | | FOB VLSFO | 474.94 | 489.51 | 1.10 | | 380 Basis | - 2.65 | - 2.00 | 0.55 | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | - 1.8 | 4.1 | - 0.4 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 8.9 | 9.5 | - 1.1 | [4] Domestic FU Data | Name | Price on 2025/08/20 | Price on 2025/08/26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2719 | 2842 | 11 | | FU 05 | 2712 | 2799 | 9 | | FU 09 | 2687 | 2827 | - 18 | | FU 01 - 05 | 7 | 43 | 2 | | FU 05 - 09 | 25 | - 28 | 27 | | FU 09 - 01 | - 32 | - 15 | - 29 | [4] Domestic LU Data | Name | Price on 2025/08/20 | Price on 2025/08/26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3411 | 3488 | - 3 | | LU 05 | 3376 | 3451 | 2 | | LU 09 | 3422 | 3460 | 57 | | LU 01 - 05 | 35 | 37 | - 5 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 46 | - 9 | - 55 | | LU 09 - 01 | 11 | - 28 | 60 | [5]
原油成品油早报-20250827
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 05:54
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with a slight rebound in absolute prices on Friday. The peak of summer crude oil demand is ending, and the inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged. South American supply has been delivered as expected. The market is focusing on the Russia-Ukraine negotiations and the implementation of the US "punishment" measures against India for buying Russian oil. [6] - On August 21, India stated that it would continue to purchase Russian oil, eliminating the risk of an embargo, but trade frictions still have uncertainties. On Thursday, the US announced a new round of sanctions against Iran, involving two Chinese companies. The potential impact of this round of sanctions is significant, and subsequently, the Dubai market's monthly spread strengthened. [6] - From a macro perspective, the expectation of an interest rate cut in the US in September is rising, and the macro sentiment is positive, supporting the absolute price. Fundamentally, global oil inventories are slightly decreasing, US commercial inventories are decreasing, gasoline inventories are decreasing, and diesel inventories are increasing. This week, the refining profits of European and American refineries have strengthened, and the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel have also strengthened. [6] - Currently, refineries are at the peak of their operation. The latest estimate is that refinery maintenance in October worldwide will exceed previous years' levels (in Europe and Africa), and the crude oil monthly spread is expected to be under pressure. In the short term, the absolute price of crude oil is expected to remain oscillating with a slight upward trend, with Brent crude oil in the range of $65 - $70. In the medium term, the absolute price is expected to weaken, and the price will fall to $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Due to the expected adjustment of autumn maintenance in Europe, the crack spread price of European diesel in the fourth quarter is expected to be raised. [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From August 20 - 26, 2025, the prices of WTI, BRENT, DUBAI, and other oil - related products fluctuated. For example, WTI decreased by $1.55, BRENT decreased by $1.58, and DUBAI decreased by $0.27. [3] - The prices of domestic gasoline increased by 20 yuan, and domestic diesel increased by 25 yuan. [3] - The price of Japan's naphtha CFR increased, and the spread between Japan's naphtha CFR and BRENT increased by 19.11. [3] 3.2 Daily News - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending August 22 was - 974,000 barrels, lower than the expected - 1,725,000 barrels and the previous value of - 2,417,000 barrels. [3] - Russia has increased its August crude oil export plan from western ports by 200,000 barrels per day due to refinery attacks, but there are uncertainties in export arrangements. [3] - India plans to reduce its Russian oil purchases in the coming weeks as the US is about to impose tariffs. The expected daily purchase volume in October and later will be 1.4 - 1.6 million barrels, compared with an average daily purchase of 1.8 million barrels in the first half of this year. [4] - Iran's crude oil export volume in August has declined, with an average daily export of about 1.5 million barrels so far this month, down from 1.7 million barrels from March - May, affected by domestic demand and US sanctions. [4] 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - For the week ending August 15, US crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day, and domestic production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day. [5] - US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a decrease of 1.41%. The strategic petroleum reserve increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. [5] - From August 15 - 22, the operating rate of major refineries in China decreased, while the operating rate of Shandong's local refineries increased slightly. The weekly production of gasoline and diesel from Chinese refineries decreased, gasoline inventories decreased, and diesel inventories increased. The comprehensive profits of major refineries and local refineries decreased. [5]
纸浆早报-20250827
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 05:24
Group 1: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on August 26, 2025, was 5070.00 [3] - The closing prices of the SP main contract on August 25, 22, 21, and 20, 2025, were 5136.00, 5108.00, 5130.00, and 5136.00 respectively [3] - The corresponding US - dollar prices on these dates were 617.80, 626.87, 620.90, 623.85, and 624.46 respectively [3] - The daily price changes were - 1.28505%, 0.54816%, - 0.42885%, - 0.11682%, and - 0.81112% respectively [3] - The Shandong Yinxing basis on August 26, 2025, was 720, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis was 755 [3] Group 2: Pulp Import Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, for Canadian pulp brands (Jinshi and Xiongshi) and Chilean Yinxing pulp, the port US - dollar prices, Shandong - region RMB prices, and import profits are as follows: Jinshi (CFR, port US - dollar price 780, Shandong - region RMB price 6350, import profit - 30.82); Xiongshi (CFR, port US - dollar price 730, Shandong - region RMB price 5500, import profit - 476.28); Yinxing (CFR letter of credit 90 days, port US - dollar price 720, Shandong - region RMB price 5790, import profit - 105.38) [4] Group 3: Pulp Price Averages - From August 20 to 26, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural - color pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively; the Shandong - region average prices also remained unchanged at 6245.00, 4775.00, 5400.00, and 3600.00 respectively [4] Group 4: Paper Product Indexes and Margins - From August 21 to 26, 2025, the cultural - paper indexes (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging - paper index (white - card index), and living - paper index remained unchanged at 5725, 5670, 4350, and 828 respectively [4] - The profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white - card paper, and living paper on August 26, 2025, were 3.9691%, 21.2646%, - 13.3827%, and 7.6807% respectively, with a change of 0.0000, 0.0000, 0.0000, and - 0.0764 respectively compared to previous data [4] Group 5: Pulp Price Spreads - On August 26, 2025, the price spreads between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural - color pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood and waste - paper pulp were 1615.00, 390, 1965, and 4214 respectively [4]
钢材早报-20250827
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 05:24
| | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/08/27 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/08/20 | 3240 | 3270 | 3330 | 3250 | 3290 | 3310 | | 2025/08/21 | 3240 | 3320 | 3330 | 3250 | 3290 | 3310 | | 2025/08/22 | 3220 | 3270 | 3330 | 3250 | 3290 | 3310 | | 2025/08/25 | 3270 | 3320 | 3390 | 3290 | 3320 | 3360 | | 2025/08/26 | 3220 | 3290 | 3330 | 3240 | 3330 | 3330 | | 变化 | -50 | -30 | -60 | -50 | 10 | -30 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 ...
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250827
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 05:24
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - For methanol, port inventory has significantly accumulated, with high imports and high actual inventory. Inland supply is expected to return, and traditional demand will enter the peak season later. Attention should be paid to whether demand can support after the return of inland supply. If inventory deteriorates significantly, methanol is expected to see a valuation decline [1]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking, social inventory is flat, and downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and other price differentials are fluctuating. The number of September overhauls is flat month - on - month, and the recent domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [6]. - For polypropylene, the upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are destocking. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differentials are neutral. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. The supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month, and downstream orders are currently average, with neutral raw material and finished - product inventories. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6]. - For PVC, the basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Northwest plants are seasonally overhauled in summer, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. Attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability in Q4. Recent export orders have slightly declined. Coal sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工率 [6]. 3) Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From August 20 to August 26, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of Jiangsu and South China spot, and other regional prices had certain fluctuations. The daily change on August 26 showed a 0 change in power coal futures, - 27 in Jiangsu spot, - 5 in South China spot, etc [1]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: Port inventory has significantly accumulated, with high imports and high actual inventory. Inland supply is expected to return, and traditional demand will enter the peak season later [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From August 20 to August 26, 2025, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained at 830 on some days and then increased to 840. The prices of North China LL, East China LL, etc. had certain increases. The daily change on August 26 showed a 0 change in Northeast Asian ethylene, 20 in North China LL, 25 in East China LL, etc [6]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking, social inventory is flat, and downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now [6]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From August 20 to August 26, 2025, the price of Shandong propylene changed from 6380 to 6450, and other prices also had certain fluctuations. The daily change on August 26 showed a 30 increase in Shandong propylene, 0 in Northeast Asian propylene, etc [6]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: The upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are destocking. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year [6]. PVC - **Price Data**: From August 20 to August 26, 2025, the price of Northwest calcium carbide increased from 2200 to 2350, and other prices had certain changes. The daily change on August 26 showed a 50 increase in Northwest calcium carbide, 0 in Shandong caustic soda, etc [6]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100 [6].
贵金属早报-20250827
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 05:23
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Not provided Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 3367.10, while London Silver's is 38.42, WTI Crude Oil's is 63.25, and LME Copper's is 9805.00. WTI Crude Oil decreased by 1.55, and LME Copper decreased by 4.00 [1] - The latest Dollar Index is 98.24, down 0.19; the latest Euro to Dollar exchange rate is 1.16, unchanged; the latest Pound to Dollar exchange rate is 1.35, unchanged; the latest Dollar to Yen exchange rate is 147.43, down 0.31 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory data is not provided; SHFE Silver inventory is 1127.33, an increase of 13.69; Gold ETF holdings are 959.92, an increase of 1.43; Silver ETF holdings are 15274.70, a decrease of 14.12 [2] - SGE Silver deferred - fee payment direction is 1, unchanged; SGE Gold deferred - fee payment direction is 2, an increase of 1.00 [2]