Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - There are multiple updates on the soybean and palm oil markets, including export sales, harvest progress, and inventory levels [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - A private exporter reported the sale of 198,000 tons of soybeans for the 2025/2026 market year to an unknown destination [1]. - Brazilian farmers have harvested 0.53% of the 2025/26 soybean crop, compared to 0.05% last year and a five - year average of 0.39% [1]. - In Brazil's Mato Grosso state, the 2025/26 soybean harvest started slightly earlier, with 1.98% of the total area harvested as of Friday, up 1.28 percentage points from 2025 and ahead of the historical average of 1.09% [1]. - On January 13, 2026, the National Grain and Material Reserves Bureau's Grain Trading Coordination Center will organize a competitive trading of imported soybeans, with a quantity of 1.1396 million tons at 13:30 [1]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 10 were 504,400 tons, a 29.2% increase from the same period last month [1]. - A survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of December was 2.97 million tons, the highest since January 2019. December production is expected to decline 8.7% month - on - month to 1.77 million tons, while exports are expected to increase 2.9% month - on - month to 1.245 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from January 5 - 9, 2026 are provided [6].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, and nickel on January 12, 2026 [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 12, 2026, the domestic spot price was 100330, the LME price was 12915, and the ratio was 7.79. The three - month domestic price was 101580, the LME price was 12873, and the ratio was 7.83. The equilibrium ratio for spot imports was 7.92, with a loss of 1676.26, and the profit for spot exports was 962.00 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 24040, the LME price was 3109, and the ratio was 7.73. The three - month domestic price was 24015, the LME price was 3153, and the ratio was 5.50. The equilibrium ratio for spot imports was 8.35, with a loss of 1902.57 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 24030, the LME price was 3136, and the ratio was 7.66. The three - month domestic price was 24385, the LME price was 3128, and the ratio was 7.73. The equilibrium ratio for spot imports was 8.33, with a loss of 2107.33 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 137250, the LME price was 17279, and the ratio was 7.94. The equilibrium ratio for spot imports was 8.01, with a loss of 640.56 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17200, the LME price was 1996, and the ratio was 8.60. The three - month domestic price was 17395, the LME price was 2040, and the ratio was 11.74. The equilibrium ratio for spot imports was 8.54, with a profit of 132.82 [3] Cross - period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 12, 2026, the differences between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 440, 610, 670, and 610 respectively, while the theoretical differences were 607, 1112, 1626, and 2139 [3] - **Zinc**: The differences were 40, 85, 120, and 135, and the theoretical differences were 223, 351, 480, and 609 [3] - **Aluminum**: The differences were 545, 600, 635, and 670, and the theoretical differences were 230, 361, 492, and 623 [3] - **Lead**: The differences were 60, 100, 125, and 140, and the theoretical differences were 211, 319, 426, and 534 [3] - **Nickel**: The differences between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 3090, 3220, 3580, and 3900 [3] - **Tin**: The difference between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts was 90, and the theoretical difference was 7248 [3] Spot - futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The differences between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were 730 and 1170 respectively, while the theoretical differences were 275 and 893 [3] - **Zinc**: The differences were - 110 and - 70, and the theoretical differences were 83 and 223 (or 64 and 285) [3] - **Lead**: The differences were 95 and 155, and the theoretical differences were 109 and 224 [3] Cross - variety Arbitrage Tracking - On January 12, 2026, the cross - variety ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc were 4.23, 4.17, 5.84, 1.02, 1.40, and 0.72 in Shanghai and 4.12, 4.14, 6.34, 0.99, 1.53, and 0.65 in London [3]

| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/12 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF O掉期 M1 | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS FO掉期 M1 | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br ent M1 | 鹿特丹10ppm G asoil掉期 M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G O M1 | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H SFO M1 | | 2026/01/05 | 328.36 | 377.83 | -9.43 | 600.70 | -222.87 | 21.06 | 49.47 | | 2026/01/06 | 327.72 | 377.00 | -9.51 | 593.30 | -216.30 | 21.18 | 49.28 | | 2026/01/07 | 315.72 | 370.14 | -10.22 | 580.60 | -210.46 | 20.31 | 54.42 | | 2026/01/08 | 311 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the documents. Group 2: Report's Core Views - For PTA, the near - end TA device slightly reduced its load, the polyester load remained stable, and the inventory continued to decrease. However, with the concentrated introduction of polyester maintenance plans, the basis weakened, and the spot processing fee shrank. In the future, the high profit of PX will keep domestic production high and overseas production rising, reducing the de - stocking amplitude in the far - month. The short - term upward space is limited before the pre - holiday polyester maintenance plan, but the overall situation has not changed before the new device is put into operation. Attention should be paid to the progress of overseas production increase [1]. - Regarding MEG, the near - end domestic oil - based production has partial load reduction, and overseas maintenance has increased month - on - month. The port inventory decreased at the beginning of the week due to low arrivals, but the arrival forecast rebounded during the week. The basis remained weak, and the coal - based profit improved month - on - month. The overall inventory accumulation continues, and the absolute inventory is not low. The pattern is expected to remain weak under the continuous new production, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the far - end device runs smoothly, the production and sales have improved month - on - month, and the inventory has slightly decreased. On the demand side, the opening rate of the polyester yarn end remained stable, the raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory increased, with stable profits. After the raw material price correction, the spot processing fee of staple fiber has improved, but the futures price remains low. The downstream seasonality is expected to continue to weaken, and the production load remains high with limited inventory pressure. It is in a state of medium - low valuation and weak drive, with limited overall contradictions. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [1]. - In the case of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the daily and weekly price changes of various rubber products are provided. The specific market situation needs further analysis based on these price changes [1]. - For styrene, the daily price changes of relevant products such as ethylene, pure benzene, and styrene are presented, as well as the daily changes in the production profits of ABS, EPS, and PS. The overall market situation is affected by these price and profit changes [3]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs PTA - **Device and Load**: Near - end TA device slightly reduced load, polyester load stable [1]. - **Inventory and Basis**: Inventory continued to decrease, basis weakened, spot processing fee shrank [1]. - **Future Outlook**: High PX profit keeps domestic production high and overseas production rising, far - month de - stocking amplitude reduced, short - term upward space limited [1]. MEG - **Device and Load**: Near - end domestic oil - based partial load reduction, overseas maintenance increased month - on - month [1]. - **Inventory and Basis**: Port inventory decreased at the beginning of the week, arrival forecast rebounded, basis remained weak [1]. - **Profit and Outlook**: Coal - based profit improved month - on - month, overall inventory accumulation continues, pattern expected to remain weak [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Device and Production - Sales**: Far - end device runs smoothly, production and sales improved month - on - month, inventory slightly decreased [1]. - **Demand Side**: Polyester yarn end opening rate stable, raw material inventory decreased, finished product inventory increased, profits stable [1]. - **Processing Fee and Outlook**: Spot processing fee improved after raw material correction, futures price low, downstream seasonality weakening, production load high [1]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - **Price Changes**: Daily and weekly price changes of various rubber products are provided [1]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: Daily price changes of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene and related products are presented [3]. - **Profit Changes**: Daily changes in the production profits of ABS, EPS, and PS are shown [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - No relevant content provided Summary by Related Catalog Spot Market - Newman powder price is 814, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 9, and its import profit is 11.35 [1] - PB powder price is 822, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 14 [1] - Mac powder price is 824, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 14, and its import profit is 45.15 [1] - Jinbuba powder price is 775, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 14, and its import profit is 37.25 [1] - Mixed powder price is 756, with a daily change of 6 and a weekly change of 16, and its import profit is -1.51 [1] - Super special powder price is 701, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 21, and its import profit is -0.71 [1] - Carajás powder price is 915, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of 30, and its import profit is -13.68 [1] - Brazilian blend price is 863, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 5, and its import profit is 5.29 [1] - IOC6 Brazilian coarse powder price is 786, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 14 [1] - SSFG Brazilian coarse powder price is 791, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 14 [1] - Ukrainian concentrate price is 907, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of 29 [1] - 61% Indian powder price is 764, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 14 [1] - Karara concentrate price is 907, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of 25 [1] - Roy Hill powder price is 809, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 14, and its import profit is 51.24 [1] - KUMBA powder price is 881, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 14 [1] - 57% Indian powder price is 636, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 21 [1] - Atlas powder price is 751, with a daily change of 6 and a weekly change of 16 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate price is 976, with a daily change of -6 and a weekly change of -6 [1] Futures Market - i2601 contract price is 852.0, with a daily change of -6.0 and a weekly change of 47.0, and its monthly spread is -59.0 [1] - i2605 contract price is 814.5, with a daily change of 1.5 and a weekly change of 25.0, and its monthly spread is 37.5 [1] - i2609 contract price is 793.0, with a daily change of 1.0 and a weekly change of 24.5, and its monthly spread is 21.5 [1] - FE01 contract price is 107.85, with a daily change of -1.00 and a weekly change of 2.30, and its monthly spread is -3.01 [1] - FE05 contract price is 106.76, with a daily change of -1.19 and a weekly change of 2.50, and its monthly spread is 1.09 [1] - FE09 contract price is 104.84, with a daily change of -1.17 and a weekly change of 2.53, and its monthly spread is 1.92 [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Glass and Soda Ash Morning Report [2] - Report Date: January 12, 2026 [3] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [3] Group 2: Glass Market Price and Spread - From December 31, 2025, to January 9, 2026, the prices of 5mm glass in major regions such as Shahe and Hubei showed an upward trend, with weekly increases ranging from 20.0 to 43.0. For example, the price of Shahe 5mm low - price glass rose from 950.0 to 993.0 [3]. - FG05 and FG09 contracts also increased during the same period, with FG05 rising from 1087.0 to 1144.0 and FG09 from 1191.0 to 1238.0. The FG 5 - 9 spread changed from - 104.0 to - 94.0, with a weekly increase of 10.0 [3]. - The basis of 05 contracts in Hebei and Hubei regions had different changes, with the 05 Hebei basis changing from - 137.0 to - 151.0 and the 05 Hubei basis from - 117.0 to - 154.0 [3]. Production and Sales - Shahe factory's glass production and sales rate was high, with middle - stream players actively purchasing. However, Shahe traders' sales were average, and the sales of futures - spot glass were poor. In Hubei, the factory increased prices, and the transaction was good [3]. - The production - sales rates in different regions were as follows: Shahe 151, Hubei 149, East China 93, and South China 110 [3]. Profit - The profits of glass production in North China and South China using natural gas had different trends. For example, the North China coal - fired profit increased from 72.9 to 101.7, and the North China natural gas profit increased from - 388.4 to - 351.7 [3]. Group 3: Soda Ash Market Price and Spread - From December 31, 2025, to January 9, 2026, the prices of heavy and light soda ash in major regions showed different trends. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda ash increased from 1140.0 to 1190.0, and the price of North China light soda ash increased from 1130.0 to 1150.0 [3]. - SA05, SA01, and SA09 contracts all increased, with SA05 rising from 1209.0 to 1228.0, SA01 from 1107.0 to 1141.0, and SA09 from 1274.0 to 1295.0. The SA01 - 05 spread changed from - 102.0 to - 87.0 [3]. - The basis of SA01 in Shahe increased from 33.0 to 49.0 [3]. Industry Situation - The upstream inventory of the soda ash industry increased significantly, while the middle - stream inventory decreased slightly. The output of Yuanxing's second - phase project increased [3]. Profit - The profits of North China ammonia - soda and North China combined - soda methods had different changes. The North China ammonia - soda profit changed from - 217.2 to - 200.6, and the North China combined - soda profit changed from - 287.2 to - 264.9 [3].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The rush shipment may lead to short - term high freight rates. The EC2602 contract is likely to rise and hard to fall. For the EC2604 contract, the actual rush shipment situation needs attention, with short - term upward sentiment being strong but the actual scale of rush shipment may be limited. There may be opportunities to short EC2604 on rallies. The adjustment of export tax rebates is negative for far - month contracts, but due to recent geopolitical tensions, far - month contracts may still fluctuate in the short term, and the overall strategy is to short EC2610 on rallies. [3] Group 3: Market Data Summary Futures Contracts - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1729.8, up 1.40% with a basis of 66.0. The trading volume was 11327 and the open interest was 17703, a decrease of 2305. - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1144.5, down 1.62% with a basis of 651.3. The trading volume was 13495 and the open interest was 29021, an increase of 1247. - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1425.8, up 0.76% with a basis of 370.0. The trading volume was 447 and the open interest was 2505, an increase of 29. - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1525.7, down 0.11% with a basis of 270.1. The trading volume was 75 and the open interest was 1215, an increase of 15. - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1102.2, down 0.27% with a basis of 693.6. The trading volume was 777 and the open interest was 6662, an increase of 43. [2] Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2502 - 2604: The spread was 585.3, with a day - on - day increase of 42.6. - EC2504 - 2606: The spread was - 281.3, with a day - on - day decrease of 29.6. [2] Spot Market - SCEIS (European Line): Updated weekly on Mondays. On January 5, 2026, it was 1795.83 points, up 3.05% from the previous period. - SCFI (European Line): Updated weekly. On January 9, 2026, it was 1719 dollars/TEU, up 1.772% from the previous period. [2] European Line Spot Freight Rates - Week 2: MSK opened at 2500 dollars, Hamburg at 2600 dollars (+100). PA had some price drops, OA had price increases. The central price was 2860 dollars, equivalent to about 2000 points on the futures market. - Week 3: MSK's opening price increased by 100 dollars. Other alliances had small price drops. PA was at 2600 dollars (YML's one route was 2400 dollars), and PA was in the range of 2800 - 2900 dollars. The central price was 2750 dollars, equivalent to about 1930 points on the futures market. - Week 4: MSK's opening price increased by 100 dollars. Most other shipping companies had not adjusted prices for the time being. [4] Group 4: News Summary - On January 11, the Israeli military was reported to plan a new round of strikes on the Gaza Strip in March 2026, aiming to expand control. - On January 11, sources said the Israeli military had no intention to attack Iran currently, but was on defensive alert. - On January 9, the Ministry of Finance adjusted the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic and other products. From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate rate for battery products will be lowered from 9% to 6%, and from January 1, 2027, the VAT export tax rebate will be cancelled. [5]

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Group 1: Report Introduction - The report is a daily volatility data report from the Options Headquarters of Yong'an Futures, updated on January 9, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Volatility Index Explanation - The implied volatility index of financial options reflects the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day. The implied volatility index of commodity options is obtained by weighting the IV of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract month, reflecting the IV change trend of the main contract [2] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV. A larger difference means IV is relatively higher than HV, and a smaller difference means IV is relatively lower [2] Group 3: Volatility Data Charts - There are charts showing the IV, HV, and IV - HV differences of various options including 300 Index, 50ETF, 1000 Index, 500ETF, silver, corn, cotton, rubber, iron ore, PTA, crude oil, aluminum, PVC, rebar, urea, rapeseed oil, and palm oil from July 2024 to January 2026 [3] Group 4: Quantile Ranking Charts - The implied volatility quantile represents the current level of a variety's IV in history. A high quantile means the current IV is high, and a low quantile means the current IV is low. The volatility spread is calculated as IV index minus HV [4] - There are ranking charts for implied volatility quantiles and historical volatility quantiles [5]

| | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/1/9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2602 | | 1706.0 | -4.11% | 1681.7 | 27173 | | 20008 | -1803 | | | EC2604 | | 1163.3 | -1.58% | 2224.4 | 16470 | | 27774 | 1435 | | | EC2606 | | 1415.0 | -0.56% | 1972.7 | 929 | | 2476 | -3 | | | EC2608 | | 1527.4 | -0.37% | 1860.3 | 225 | | 1200 | 8 | | | EC2610 | | 1105.2 | -0.61% | 2282.5 | 1277 | | 6619 | -131 | | | 月産 | | 前一日 | 前两日 | 前三日 | 日环比 ...