饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 3 月 26 日辽宁现货 14.3-14.6 元/公斤，较上日稳定；河南 14.4-14.9 元/公 斤，较上日稳定；四川 14.4-14.8 元/公斤，较上日稳定；广东 15.4-16 元/ 公斤，较上日稳定，今日早间猪价稳定为主。3 月生猪出栏增加，前期规模 企业出栏平缓，月底企业出栏或增加，目前肥标价差收窄，价格涨高后二次 育肥介入谨慎，大猪出栏积极性增强，而终端消费增量有限，屠企大多亏 损，猪价上方承压，但猪价跌至 14 元/公斤附近，养殖端惜售、二次育肥逢 低进场仍存以及屠宰企业也会考虑冻品入库，均支撑价格，短期猪价围绕 14 元/公斤震荡整理，关注二育和屠宰冻品入库介入情况。中长期来看，能 繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月持续缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况 下，3-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，二季度供应同比增加，叠加生 猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下，猪价下跌风险加剧， 向成本回归，关注二育介入造成供应后移、冻品入库以及饲料价格波动对价 格的扰动；12-1 月产能小幅下滑，接近均衡区间上限，供应压力仍大，远 期价格承压。策略上 ...

日度观点: ◆ PVC： 3 月 25 日 PVC 主力 05 合约收盘 5127 元/吨（-32），常州市场价 4920 元/吨（+20），主力基差-207 元/吨（+52），广州市场价 5060 元/吨（-30）， 杭州市场价 4970 元/吨（+20）；兰炭中料 675（-35）元/吨，乌海电石 2700（0）元/吨，乙烯 7300（0）元/吨。3 月 18 日，亚洲地区 PVC 4 月 船期预售报价环比小幅下调 20-40 美元/吨不等，中国台湾地区主要报价 CIF 印度环比下调 40 美元/吨在 700 美元/吨，CFR 中国大陆主港环比下 跌 25 美元/吨在 700 美元/吨，其他地区环比下调 20 美元/吨。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下持续低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且 出口体量总体占比小（12%左右）；供应端有不少新投计划，且烧碱利润 高开工持续维持高位，库存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求不足、产能 过剩，供需宽松格局，偏空配。4-5 月检存有春检预期，内需季节性恢 复，出口以价换量持稳状态，目前估值中性，预计 PVC 反弹空间有限， 关注宏观和黑色板块带动。后期关注新增投产 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to oscillate, and treasury bonds are recommended for timely profit - taking [5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is expected to oscillate; iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly; coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate at low levels [5][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is expected to oscillate at a high level, with a suggestion to reduce long positions on rallies and add on pullbacks; aluminum is expected to oscillate, with a reference range of 20300 - 21000 for the main contract; nickel is recommended for waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; tin is expected to oscillate strongly; silver and gold are expected to oscillate [11][12][15][17][18][19]. - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC is expected to oscillate; caustic soda is expected to oscillate; urea is recommended for interval operation; methanol is expected to oscillate; soda ash is recommended to hold short positions in call options [21][23][25][27][28]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate; apples are expected to oscillate strongly; PTA is expected to oscillate weakly [30][31]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs are expected to oscillate weakly; eggs are expected to have strong support in the near - term and be shorted on rallies in the far - term; corn is expected to oscillate strongly; soybean meal is recommended for interval operation; oils are expected to fluctuate within a range [33][36][37][39][40]. Core Views The report analyzes the market conditions of various futures products, including macro - financial, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton textile, and agricultural and livestock sectors. It takes into account factors such as policy changes, supply and demand, and international trade situations to provide investment strategies and market outlooks for each product [5][7][11]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to Trump's possible "two - step" tariff plan, the decline in trading volume, and the drop in market liquidity and risk appetite, index futures are expected to oscillate, with IF oscillating strongly and IM oscillating weakly [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Although factors are favorable for the bond market, the central level of capital interest rates restricts the downward space of short - term bonds and the imagination space of long - term bonds. Bond yields may oscillate, and it is recommended to take profits in a timely manner [5]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: With the policy basically in line with expectations, weak economic data, stable production, rising demand, and slow inventory reduction, rebar is expected to oscillate, with its price below the electric - arc furnace flat - rate cost and above the valley - rate cost and long - process cost [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Affected by steel mill production restrictions and macro - economic sentiment, iron ore prices oscillated strongly on Monday. However, with pessimistic demand expectations and the possible implementation of steel production control policies, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly [7]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal supply is stable, and demand is limited by the steel - coke game. Coke supply is high, and demand is affected by market sentiment and the low - inventory strategy of steel mills. Both are expected to oscillate at low levels [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the impact of US tariff policies and the slowdown in downstream demand, copper prices may face a high - level correction. However, due to the approaching traditional consumption season and the long - term demand logic, copper prices are generally easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to adjust positions [11]. - **Aluminum**: The supply of the ore end is improving, and the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing. Although demand is rising and inventory has turned around, affected by US tariffs, aluminum prices may still have room for correction, and it is recommended to buy on pullbacks [12][13]. - **Nickel**: Affected by policy changes in the nickel ore end and macro - economic factors, nickel prices may oscillate widely, and it is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies [15]. - **Tin**: Although the supply of tin ore is tight, the resumption of production in Myanmar and Indonesia may increase supply. The recovery of the semiconductor industry may support demand, and it is recommended to take partial profits on previous long positions [17]. - **Silver and Gold**: Due to the slowdown of the Fed's balance - sheet reduction, weak economic data, and the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policies, the market's expectation of the Fed's early interest - rate cut has increased, and precious metals prices have continued to rise. It is recommended to build positions on dips [19]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Affected by weak demand, high inventory, and new production plans, PVC is expected to oscillate, and it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as new production, spring maintenance, and downstream resumption [22]. - **Caustic Soda**: Due to the weakening of end - point expectations, high inventory, and rising liquid chlorine prices, caustic soda is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as inventory reduction and alumina production [24]. - **Urea**: With a slight decrease in supply, stable demand, and smooth inventory reduction, urea prices have risen. However, it is necessary to prevent price corrections, and the 05 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1720 - 1880 [25]. - **Methanol**: With high domestic production, sufficient supply, and a slight increase in downstream demand, methanol prices are expected to oscillate within a range, and it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as production reduction and international crude oil prices [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Although demand has improved, supply has increased rapidly, and soda ash prices are under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions in call options [28][29]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: According to the USDA report, the supply and demand of global cotton have increased slightly, and with weak market consumption, cotton is expected to oscillate [30]. - **Apples**: With good apple出库 and low inventory, apple prices are expected to oscillate strongly [31]. - **PTA**: Affected by the trend of crude oil prices, the restart of maintenance devices, and the high - level operation of downstream polyester, PTA is expected to oscillate weakly and follow the cost - end crude oil [31][32]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: With an increase in supply in March, limited terminal consumption, and support from breeding and slaughtering, pig prices are expected to oscillate around 14 yuan/kg in the short term. In the long term, supply will increase, and prices will be under pressure [35]. - **Eggs**: In the short term, egg supply and demand are increasing, and the market is oscillating at a low level. In the long term, supply will increase, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies for the 05 contract and take a short - term view on the 08 and 09 contracts [37]. - **Corn**: With a decrease in selling pressure, high purchasing enthusiasm, and a decrease in new production and imports, corn prices are expected to be strong in the short term and may rise in the long term, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the 05 contract [38][39]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short term, domestic supply and demand are tight, and prices are supported. In the medium term, prices may be weak due to the large arrival volume from South America. In the long term, prices may be easy to rise due to increased import costs and possible reduction in planting area, and it is recommended for interval operation and long - position layout [39][40]. - **Oils**: In the short term, the trends of soybean and palm oils are oscillating, and rapeseed oil is strong. In the medium term, prices may fall. It is recommended to wait and watch for soybean and palm oil 05 contracts, pay attention to the pressure of rapeseed oil at 9300, and conduct arbitrage operations [45].

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周二，螺纹钢期货价格震荡偏强运行，杭州中天螺纹 3280，环比前一日 上涨 10 元/吨，基差 60（-6）。宏观方面，两会政策力度基本符合预期， 不过 1-2 月经济数据仍然羸弱，地产持续下行、基建增速略有改善；产 业方面，螺纹钢产量持稳、需求继续回升，库存连续第三周去化，不过去 库速度并不快；海外方面，3 月 12 日，美国对进口钢铝征收 25%关税生 效，欧盟、印度等也开始提高贸易壁垒，继续关注 4 月 2 日对等关税， 据媒体报道，特朗普计划推出的对等关税措施可能比外界预期的要温和。 后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格低于电炉平电成本，高于电炉谷 电成本与长流程成本，静态估值处于中性水平；驱动方面，国内政策已 经明朗、需求强度仍处于验证期，短期外需属于扰动因素，预计价格震 荡运行为主。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周二，铁矿期货价格震荡运行，主要受新疆钢厂开启粗钢限产，以及宏 观降息情绪利好影响。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 776 元/湿吨（-2）。普 氏 62%指数 102.55 美元/吨（-0.60），月均 102.17 美元/吨 ...

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：区间震荡 全球新年度产量目前预期波动幅度较小，国内供应并不特别宽裕，或有 略微紧张趋向，目前最大的变数是在国内宏观刺激政策的落地，国内经 济提振消费是否变好，中美贸易壁垒对出口担忧形成博弈，特朗普上台， 美国对华关税再度增加，累计加征 20%关税，不利于出口，影响经济， 后续关税影响存在长期性和不确定性，市场谨慎心态或持续，国内进入 金三银四传统消费旺季，冲淡了下游对原料的备货信心，前期国内 3 月两会召开，市场信心有所提振，短中期底部空间有限，后市来看，美 联储在利率政策上面是否存在变数，总体市场担忧仍存，总体在供需偏 紧基本面及中美关税加征背景下，期价维持区间震荡运行，等待反弹机 会。企业在风险管理策略方面，采取合适的期货和期权策略进行规避风 险。（数据来源：中国棉花信息网 TTEB） ◆ PTA：低位调整 原油方面：美国计划进一步加强对伊朗的制裁,同时美国计划补充战略 储备，国际油价小幅反弹。现货方面：PTA 现货价格+25 在 4800 元/ 吨，现货基差+14 在 2505-10。PX 收 834.67 美元/吨，PTA 现货加工 区间参考 282.68 元/吨。开 ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 （数据来源：农业部、我的农产品网） ◆鸡蛋： 3 月 25 日山东德州报价 3.15 元/斤，较上日稳定；北京报价 3.23 元/斤， 较上日跌 0.07 元/斤。3 月换羽的老鸡和前期补苗开产陆续增多，不过蛋价 走势承压，惜淘情绪有所缓解，鸡蛋供应增速放缓，低蛋价会刺激渠道及下 游采购需求增加，整体鸡蛋市场供需双增。长期来看，高养殖利润驱动 24 年 12 月-25 年 2 月补栏积极性高，对应二季度新开产蛋鸡较多，供应持续 增加，不过在鸡苗供应偏紧、鸡龄结构偏老背景下，需要关注老鸡淘汰或换 羽对阶段性供应的影响，整体高补苗量下，下半年供应增势或难逆转。当前 盘面 05 基本平水现货，短期鸡蛋供需双增，低位震荡，等待现货指引；中 长期供应压力增加，远月估值承压，关注近端淘汰及原料成本波动扰动。策 略上 05 等待反弹逢高套保，关注 3100 压力；08、09 大逻辑偏空对待，关 注饲料端及淘汰扰动。关注淘鸡及换羽开产、各环节库存。（数据来源：蛋 e 网、卓创资讯） ◆油脂： 3 月 24 日美豆油主力 5 月合约涨 0.26%收于 42.13 美分/磅，因为油粕套 利解锁。马棕油 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: The preliminary value of the US manufacturing PMI in March unexpectedly returned to contraction, the service PMI was better than expected but the outlook confidence was low, and tariffs caused a sharp rise in material costs. The People's Bank of China adjusted the winning bid method to conduct 450 billion yuan of MLF operations, and the policy interest rate attribute of MLF has withdrawn from the historical stage. The Chinese Ministry of Finance stated that in 2025, fiscal policy should be more proactive, increasing the fiscal deficit ratio and arranging a larger - scale government bond; in 2025, it is necessary to support the all - around expansion of domestic demand and focus on enhancing scientific and technological innovation capabilities. From January to February in China, the general public budget revenue decreased by 1.6% year - on - year, the expenditure increased by 3.4% year - on - year, and the securities trading stamp duty increased by 58.9%. The trading volume of stock indices decreased compared with before, but the US tariff stance has become more lenient. The Beijing Stock Exchange and the Hong Kong stock market closed higher in the late trading yesterday, and the stock indices may fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With the end of a large - scale treasury bond issuance on Monday, the biggest negative factor in the market this week has subsided. As the end of the quarter approaches, the capital situation and institutional behavior remain the core concerns of the market. Given the accelerated issuance of government bonds this week, it is expected that the capital injection during the cross - quarter period will be more proactive. In terms of institutional behavior, although the fluctuations caused by the bond sales of the banking system still exist, the overall sales volume has decreased. In addition, after the end of the quarter, these institutions may transform into new allocation forces. Overall, the amplitude of the market correction caused by the after - effects is gradually decreasing, and the bond market may face more obvious positive factors in the future [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Stock Index**: Fluctuate [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Take profit and wait and see [4]. 4. Market Review - **Stock Index**: The futures of the main contract of the CSI 300 index rose 0.49%, the futures of the main contract of the SSE 50 index rose 0.68%, the futures of the main contract of the CSI 500 index fell 0.01%, and the futures of the main contract of the CSI 1000 index fell 0.47% [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.12%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.09%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.33%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.02% [8]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index**: The Shanghai Composite Index is below the 5 - day moving average [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The T continuous main contract closed above the 5 - day moving average [9]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/03/24 | CSI 300 Continuous Main | 3,900.20 | 0.49 | 51,229 | 151,921 | | 2025/03/24 | SSE 50 Continuous Main | 2,689.00 | 0.68 | 25,107 | 51,401 | | 2025/03/24 | CSI 500 Continuous Main | 5,903.80 | - 0.01 | 52,006 | 71,554 | | 2025/03/24 | CSI 1000 Continuous Main | 6,142.80 | - 0.47 | 139,956 | 158,394 | | 2025/03/24 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Main | 107.60 | 0.12 | 79,458 | 176,230 | | 2025/03/24 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Main | 105.51 | 0.09 | 65,439 | 147,785 | | 2025/03/24 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Main | 115.59 | 0.33 | 119,255 | 102,815 | | 2025/03/24 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Main | 102.39 | 0.02 | 32,449 | 93,614 | [11]

截至 3 月 24 日收盘，沪铝主力 05 合约下跌 0.22%至 20750 元/吨。整 体矿端供应逐步好转、价格逐步下行。氧化铝运行产能周度环比下降 70 万吨至 9290 万吨，氧化铝库存周度环比增加 1.3 万吨至 336.8 万吨。 因矿石供应问题导致现金成本亏损，多家氧化铝企业出现减产。山东某 150 万吨氢氧化铝项目逐步贡献氧化铝产量；广西地区某氧化铝厂二期 第一条 100 万吨产线开始出成品，第二条 100 万吨产线近期也将逐步进 产业服务总部 有色金属团队 2025-03-25 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 有色金属团队 有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 3 月 24 日收盘，沪铜主力 05 合约上涨 0.88%至 81840 元/吨。美 关税政策对市场的影响延续，而冶炼企业检修减产牵动市场的神经，但 暂无后续供给端的消息出来。随着铜价持续上涨，下游接货意愿减弱， 现货升水周尾有所承压。消费表现一般，但由于国内部分冶炼厂仍积极 出口，国内库存维持去库趋势，不过幅度有所放缓。宏观因素搅动全球 供需格局，未来几周预计将有 10 万-15 ...

能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： ◆ 尿素： 3 月 24 日 PVC 主力 05 合约收盘 5159 元/吨（+139），常州市场价 4900 元/吨（+70），主力基差-259 元/吨（-69），广州市场价 5090 元/吨（+80）， 杭州市场价 4950 元/吨（+90）；兰炭中料 710（0）元/吨，乌海电石 2700 （0）元/吨，乙烯 7700（0）元/吨。3 月 18 日，亚洲地区 PVC 4 月船期 预售报价环比小幅下调 20-40 美元/吨不等，中国台湾地区主要报价 CIF 印度环比下调 40 美元/吨在 700 美元/吨，CFR 中国大陆主港环比下跌 25 美元/吨在 700 美元/吨，其他地区环比下调 20 美元/吨。长期看 PVC 需 求在地产拖累下持续低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体 量总体占比小；供应端仍有新投计划，且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位， 库存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求不足、产能过剩，供需宽松格局， 偏空配。3 月检修不多但后期存有春检预期，出口以价换量持稳状态， 内需季节性恢复；目前估值中性，基本面驱动有限，跟随大盘波动。美 衰退担忧加剧，国内 ...

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周一，螺纹钢期货价格大幅反弹，杭州中天螺纹 3270，环比前一日上涨 50 元/吨，基差 66（+2）。宏观方面，两会政策力度基本符合预期，不 过 1-2 月经济数据仍然羸弱，地产持续下行、基建增速略有改善；产业 方面，螺纹钢产量持稳、需求继续回升，库存连续第三周去化，不过去库 速度并不快；海外方面，3 月 12 日，美国对进口钢铝征收 25%关税生 效，欧盟、印度等也开始提高贸易壁垒，继续关注 4 月 2 日关税是否再 升级。 后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格低于电炉平电成本，高于 电炉谷电成本与长流程成本，静态估值处于中性水平；驱动方面，国内 政策已经明朗、需求强度仍处于验证期，短期外需属于扰动因素，预计 价格震荡运行为主。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周一，铁矿期货价格震荡偏强，主要受新疆钢厂开启粗钢限产，以及宏 观降息情绪利好影响。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 778 元/湿吨（+16）。 普氏 62%指数 103.15 美元/吨（+2.10），月均 102.15 美元/吨。PBF 基差 44 元/吨（-4）。供给端：最新澳洲巴西铁矿 ...