招商评论 铜 相对于国内 4 月 30 日收盘，5 月 2 日收盘 LME 铜价上涨 0.3%。 宏观来看，市场有贸易战缓和预期，全球股票指数节日内表现偏强。美国 PCE 数据符合预期，非农数据强于 预期，美元指数在关键位置继续震荡。但市场对于美元贬值预期较强，亚洲国家和地区货币对美元大幅升值， 市场担忧对美国资产的抛售再度到来。微观来看，铜矿紧张格局延续，周度 TC 在-42.6 美金。国内平水铜成 交升水来到 200 元以上，国内 back950 元，伦敦结构也来到 20 美金 back。伴随全球库存的快速去化，铜价 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 贸易战反复 2025年05月06日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 【市场表现】 | | 金 | 五一小长假海外贵金属市场走弱，以伦敦金为代表的国际金价周四下跌 1.53%，不过随后企稳。 | | 属 | 【消息面】由沙特阿拉伯领导的 OPEC+八国生产商集团周六达成协议，决定在 6 月份再次增产 41.1 万桶/日 | | | 再次拖累油价走弱；第二轮日美关税谈判结束，石破茂强硬表态：绝不接受 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On April 29, most of the four major A-share stock indices declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index falling by 0.05%, 0.05%, and 0.13% respectively, while the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose by 0.1%. Market trading volume decreased by 35 billion yuan compared to the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, public utilities, communications, and beauty care led the gains, while real estate, pharmaceutical biology, and coal led the losses [2]. - The basis of the next-month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 129.78, 117.71, 50.28, and 24.31 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of -15.7%, -15%, -9.51%, and -6.56%. After the implementation of US reciprocal tariffs, stock index fluctuations increased significantly. The short-term index may be oversold. Attention should be paid to signs of tariff relaxation and structural opportunities in the stock market. If the RMB holds the key level, the index may stabilize synchronously. Currently, there are gaps above and below the index, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The valuation of IF is low, and it is recommended to make long-term investments at low prices [3]. - On April 29, treasury bond futures rose across the board. Recently, the short-term capital market is neutral. With the implementation of the US reciprocal tariff executive order, global trade uncertainty has increased significantly. In the short term, the safe-haven property of treasury bonds is more prominent, but the price has reached a high level, and it is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the order of fiscal and monetary policies will determine the direction of long-term prices. If fiscal policies are introduced first and the domestic economy shows further improvement, it is expected that long-term treasury bond prices will gradually cool down and the yield curve will become steeper [3][4]. - High-frequency data shows that the recent infrastructure boom has slightly increased [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Economic Data - High-frequency data indicates a slight increase in the recent infrastructure boom [6]. (2) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance | Code | Name | Change (%) | Current Price | Change | Volume | Turnover (10,000 yuan) | Open Interest | Daily Change in Open Interest | Settlement Price | Basis | Annualized Basis Yield (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IC2505 | CSI 2505 | 0.24 | 5573.8 | 13.4 | 19806 | 2204954 | 47845 | -2300 | 5572.8 | 31.1 | -12.6 | | IC2506 | CSI 2506 | 0.23 | 5487.2 | 12.8 | 34048 | 3731914 | 95869 | -211 | 5487.6 | 117.7 | -15.0 | | IC2509 | CSI 2509 | 0.25 | 5360.8 | 13.2 | 7370 | 789232 | 44957 | 792 | 5360.6 | 244.1 | -10.9 | | IC2512 | CSI 2512 | 0.41 | 5275.6 | 21.8 | 3696 | 388947 | 10261 | 887 | 5266.6 | 329.3 | -9.2 | | IC500 | CSI 500 | 0.12 | 5604.9 | 6.6 | 12674292700 | 15803300 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | | IF2505 | SSE-CSI 2505 | -0.21 | 3757.8 | -7.8 | 17994 | 2029214 | 46271 | -3286 | 3758.4 | 17.3 | -10.4 | | IF2506 | SSE-CSI 2506 | -0.21 | 3724.8 | -8.0 | 37569 | 4199484 | 134140 | -200 | 3725.8 | 50.3 | -9.5 | | IF2509 | SSE-CSI 2509 | -0.15 | 3670.0 | -5.6 | 6039 | 664974 | 54843 | 67 | 3670.2 | 105.1 | -7.0 | | IF2512 | SSE-CSI 2512 | -0.12 | 3645.6 | -4.2 | 2045 | 223522 | 5819 | 461 | 3643.8 | 129.5 | -5.4 | | IF300 | SSE-CSI 300 | -0.17 | 3775.1 | -6.5 | 11151469400 | 19746274 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | | IH2505 | SSE 2505 | -0.32 | 2639.0 | -8.6 | 9490 | 751984 | 17294 | -724 | 2640 | 6.5 | -5.6 | | IH2506 | SSE 2506 | -0.35 | 2621.2 | -9.2 | 20683 | 1628147 | 43068 | 452 | 2623.2 | 24.3 | -6.6 | | IH2509 | SSE 2509 | -0.28 | 2589.8 | -7.2 | 2672 | 207741 | 16917 | 36 | 2590.8 | 55.7 | -5.3 | | IH2512 | SSE 2512 | -0.35 | 2583.4 | -9.2 | 619 | 48041 | 1492 | 41 | 2586.2 | 62.1 | -3.7 | | IH50 | SSE 50 | -0.22 | 2645.5 | -5.7 | 2804263100 | 5389422 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | | IM2505 | China 1000 2505 | 0.60 | 5868.0 | 35.0 | 38130 | 4462992 | 63293 | -4736 | 5864.8 | 35.4 | -13.6 | | IM2506 | China 1000 2506 | 0.70 | 5773.6 | 40.4 | 116166 | 13372787 | 159461 | 203 | 5769 | 129.8 | -15.7 | | IM2509 | China 1000 2509 | 0.64 | 5610.0 | 35.4 | 18463 | 2066494 | 69978 | -1510 | 5607 | 293.4 | -12.4 | | IM2512 | China 1000 2512 | 0.56 | 5478.2 | 30.4 | 6083 | 665528 | 17620 | 884 | 5478.4 | 425.2 | -11.3 | | IM1000 | CSI 1000 | 0.45 | 5903.4 | 26.3 | 18602339400 | 21941178 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | [10] (3) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance | Code | 2-Year Treasury Bond Futures | 5-Year Treasury Bond Futures | 10-Year Treasury Bond Futures | 30-Year Treasury Bond Futures | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current Price | 102.3 | 106.1 | 109.1 | 121.0 | | Change (%) | 0.01 | 0.13 | 0.23 | 0.69 | | Volume | 34240 | 50163 | 51372 | 77545 | | Turnover (10,000 yuan) | 7008580 | 5318695 | 5600931 | 9361494 | | Open Interest | 93075 | 157294 | 192474 | 106469 | | Daily Change in Open Interest | -1495 | -717 | 5655 | 1926 | | CTD Bond | 240024.IB | 240014.IB | 240025.IB | 200012.IB | | Yield Change (bps) | -1.00 | -1.75 | -3.12 | -3.10 | | Net Basis | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | | Quantile | 27.00% | 12.30% | 8.30% | 13.10% | | IRR | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | | Quantile | 70.90% | 94.80% | 94.00% | 87.20% | [12] Short-Term Capital Interest Rate Market Changes | | Current Price | Previous Price | One Week Ago | One Month Ago | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHIBOR: Overnight | 1.54 | 1.60 | 1.71 | 1.73 | | DR001 | 1.54 | 1.59 | 1.70 | 1.72 | | SHIBOR: One Week | 1.75 | 1.72 | 1.67 | 1.94 | | DR007 | 1.78 | 1.75 | 1.71 | 2.05 | [15]

商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | 【市场表现】隔夜贵金属小幅震荡，以伦敦金计价的国际金价维持在 3300 美元/盎司一线，沪金主力收于 785 | | | 金 | 元/克。 | | | 属 | 【消息面】美国商务部长谈及部分关税谈判进展，声称有的已谈妥待批准；特朗普预计将采取措施减轻其汽 | | | | 车关税政策带来的冲击。 | | | | 【经济数据】3 月份美国商品贸易逆差比上月增长了 9.6%，达到 1620 亿美元。进口增长 5%至 3427 亿美元， | | | | 其中消费品进口量激增 27.5%，企业纷纷在关税实施前"抢跑"进口；美国 3 月 JOLTS 职位空缺 719.2 万人， | | | | 预期 750 万人，低于媒体调查的所有经济学家的预测；3 月份美国商品贸易逆差比上月增长了 9.6%，达到 1620 | | | | 亿美元。进口增长 5%至 3427 亿美元，其中消费品进口量激增 27.5%。 | | | | 【库存数据】国内黄金 ETF 前一交易日估算流入 0.2 吨，COMEX 黄金库存前一交易 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the stock index futures market, after the implementation of US reciprocal tariffs, stock index fluctuations have significantly increased. There is a possibility of short - term over - decline in the index. Attention should be paid to signs of tariff easing and structural opportunities in the stock market. If the RMB holds the key level, the index may stabilize. Currently, there are gaps above and below the index, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term. Since the valuation of IF is low, it is recommended to make long - term investments at low prices [2]. - For the treasury bond futures market, the short - term capital situation is neutral recently. With the implementation of the US reciprocal tariff executive order, global trade uncertainty has increased significantly. In the short term, the safe - haven property of treasury bonds is more prominent, but the price has reached a high level, so it is expected to move in a volatile manner. In the long run, the sequence of fiscal and monetary policies will determine the direction of long - term prices. If fiscal policies are introduced first and the domestic economy shows a further positive trend, the prices of long - term treasury bonds are expected to gradually decline, and the yield curve will become steeper [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Economic Data High - frequency data shows that the recent infrastructure construction boom has slightly increased [5]. (2) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On April 28, the four major A - share stock indexes declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.2% to 3288.41 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.62% to 9855.2 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.65% to 1934.46 points, and the STAR 50 Index fell 0.17% to 1002.83 points. Market trading volume was 1.0768 trillion yuan, a decrease of 60.2 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, public utilities (+0.39%) led the gains, while real estate (-3.66%) led the losses [2]. - The basis and basis annualized yields of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH are 148.06, 127.3, 51.02, and 23.23 points, and - 17.49%, - 15.79%, - 9.37%, and - 6.08% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles are 5%, 3%, 6%, and 16% respectively. The futures - spot price difference has been repaired but remains at a low level [2]. (3) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On April 28, most treasury bond futures rose. The 2 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.01% to 102.32 points, the 5 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.06% to 105.92 points, the 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.03% to 108.84 points, and the 30 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.3% to 120.18 points [3]. - In the open - market operations, the central bank injected 279 billion yuan and withdrew 176 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 103 billion yuan [3]. - The short - term capital interest rate market has changed. For example, SHIBOR overnight is 1.60, DR001 is 1.59, SHIBOR one - week is 1.72, and DR007 is 1.75 [14].

2025年04月29日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 基本金属 招商评论 铝 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2506 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.47%，收于 19935 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 130 元/吨， LME 价格 2427.5 美元/吨。 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅上升。需求方面，铝材开工率小幅上升。 交易策略：美国关税政策态度缓和，开工环比走强，并维持去库。预计铝价震荡偏强运行。 操作建议：观望或逢低试多。 风险提示：海内外宏观政策变化。 氧 化 铝 市场表现：昨日氧化铝 2509 合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.56%，收于 2862 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 56 元/吨，4 月 23 日，澳大利亚成交 3 万吨，离岸成交价格 347.5 美元/吨，较上一单（4 月 17 日）持平。 基本面：供应方面，氧化铝厂总体运行产能未出现大幅波动。需求方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产 能小幅上升。 交易策略：氧化铝厂压产和检修增多，现货止跌且周度供应短缺转为去库。但几内亚铝土矿发运恢复，进口 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 期货研究 矿价格跌幅扩大，若矿价继续下跌修复 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The report indicates a weak - demand situation in the log market, with prices showing an oscillatory downward trend. It suggests a wait - and - see approach due to factors such as the upcoming seasonal demand slump in May, reduced demand for construction materials caused by a decline in new housing starts, and a supply - stronger - than - demand pattern in the market. Attention should be paid to the delivery situation in July [3][5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Basics - Trees can be classified into softwood (coniferous) and hardwood (broad - leaved) trees. Logs are divided into coniferous and broad - leaved logs, and log futures' deliverable items are coniferous logs. The benchmark deliverable item for log futures is radiata pine, and there are also alternative deliverable items with different specifications and corresponding price adjustments [13]. - The delivery area covers 9 major import provinces and cities, with Shandong as the benchmark delivery area. Different regions have different import volumes and corresponding premium or discount settings [14]. 3.2 Supply - In 2025, it is still the peak supply cycle for New Zealand. The import volume of logs has shown certain trends over the years, and different countries and tree species have different import proportions. For example, in 2024, New Zealand accounted for 68.3% of the import volume of coniferous logs [27][26]. 3.3 Demand - As of April 18, the average daily outbound volume of Chinese log ports was 70,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The real - estate market's development investment, new construction area, and other indicators have an impact on log demand. The export of furniture and related data also reflect the demand situation in the market [36][38]. 3.4 Inventory - As of April 18, the port inventory of Chinese coniferous logs was 351 cubic meters, a decrease of 8 cubic meters from the previous week. The inventory of North American logs decreased by 80,000 cubic meters, radiata pine decreased by 50,000 cubic meters, and spruce increased by 50,000 cubic meters [44][47]. 3.5 Price - This week, the spot prices remained stable. As of April 25, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 780 yuan per cubic meter, the same as the previous week, with a basis of - 16 yuan per cubic meter. The prices of other types of logs also remained unchanged compared to the previous week [49].

2025年04月28日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：周五铜价震荡偏弱运行。基本面：贸易战的言语往来还在继续，市场风险偏好较低。国内政治局 | | 铜 | 会议结束，维持底线思维。供应端，铜矿紧张格局延续，TC 继续走弱。需求端，周度精铜制杆开工率走强。 | | | 国内和伦敦结构走强，近月紧张延续。交易策略：假期来临，建议暂时观望。风险提示：全球需求不及预期。 | | | 仅供参考。 | | | 市场表现：周五电解铝 2506 合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.50%，收于 20030 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 210 元/吨， | | | LME 价格 2437.5 美元/吨。 | | 铝 | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅上升。需求方面，铝材开工率小幅上升。 | | | 交易策略：美国关税政策态度缓和，宏观情绪偏暖，开工环比走强，并维持去库。预计铝价震荡偏强运行。 | | | 操作建议：逢低试多。 | | | 风险提示：海内外宏观政策变化。 | | | 市场表现：周五氧化铝 2509 合约收盘价较前一交 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: April 28, 2025 [1] - Report Issuer: China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. [1] 1. Market Performance Stock Index - On April 25, most of the four major A-share stock indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.07% to 3295.06 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.39% to 9917.06 points, the ChiNext Index up 0.59% to 1947.19 points, and the STAR 50 Index up 0.13% to 1004.57 points. Market turnover was 1.137 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.9 billion yuan from the previous day. [2] - In terms of industry sectors, public utilities (+1.36%), communication (+1.15%), and beauty care (+0.96%) led the gains; real estate (-0.6%), pharmaceutical biology (-0.59%), and coal (-0.59%) led the losses. [2] - In terms of market strength, IC > IM > IF > IH, with the number of rising/flat/falling stocks being 2,831/212/2,366 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had net inflows of 7.8 billion, -4.6 billion, -10 billion, and 6.7 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +22.1 billion, +16.6 billion, -10.7 billion, and -28.1 billion yuan respectively. [2] Stock Index Futures - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 152.9, 128.58, 47.79, and 20.81 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of -17.39%, -15.44%, -8.53%, and -5.31% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 5%, 3%, 8%, and 18% respectively. The futures - spot price difference has been repaired but remains at a low level. [2] Treasury Bond Futures - On April 25, Treasury bond futures showed short - term decline and long - term increase. The 2 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.04% to 102.28 points, the 5 - year Treasury bond futures remained unchanged at 105.94 points, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.06% to 108.77 points, and the 30 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.28% to 119.68 points. [3] - For the current active contract 2506, the CTD bonds of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures had yield changes of +0.75bps, -0.75bps, -1bps, and -1.75bps respectively, corresponding net bases of -0.037, -0.063, -0.059, and -0.006, and IRRs of 1.89%, 2.06%, 2.04%, and 1.64% respectively. Currently, CTD bonds of each maturity have high IRRs and low bases, indicating potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities. [3] - In the open - market operations, the central bank injected 159.5 billion yuan and withdrew 250.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 91 billion yuan. [3] 2. Trading Strategies Stock Index Futures - After the implementation of the US reciprocal tariffs, the volatility of stock indices has increased significantly. In the short term, the index may be oversold. Attention should be paid to whether there are signs of tariff relaxation and the structural opportunities in the stock market. If the RMB holds the key level, the index may stabilize. Currently, there are gaps above and below the index, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Since the valuation of IF is relatively low, it is recommended to make long - term arrangements on dips. [2] Treasury Bond Futures - In the short term, the short - end funding situation is neutral; there have been frequent changes on the macro side, and the implementation of the US reciprocal tariff executive order has greatly increased global trade uncertainties. In the short term, the safe - haven property of Treasury bonds is more prominent, but the price has reached a high level, and it is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the sequence of fiscal and monetary policies will determine the direction of long - end prices. If fiscal policies are introduced first and the domestic economy shows a further positive trend, it is expected that the prices of long - term Treasury bonds will gradually cool down and the yield curve will become steeper. [3] 3. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent infrastructure boom has slightly increased. [4] 4. Market Data Tables Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - The table provides detailed information on the performance of various stock index futures contracts (such as IC2505, IF2505, etc.) and spot indices (such as CSI 500, SSE 50), including price, change, trading volume, open interest, basis, and annualized basis yield. [8] Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - The table shows the performance of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures, including price, change, trading volume, open interest, CTD bond information, yield change, net basis, quantile, and IRR. [10] Short - End Funding Rate Market Changes - The table presents the changes in short - end funding rates such as SHIBOR overnight, DR001, SHIBOR one - week, and DR007 compared with the previous price, one - week ago, and one - month ago. [13]

金融研究 2025年4月25日 星期五 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：4 月 24 日，A 股四大股指多数下跌，其中上证指数上涨 0.03%，报收 3297.29 点；深成 指下跌 0.58%，报收 9878.32 点；创业板指下跌 0.68%，报收 1935.86 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.92%， 报收 1003.32 点。市场成交 11,389 亿元，较前日减少 1,235 亿元。行业板块方面，美容护理(+1.61%)， 银行(+1.16%)，公用事业(+1.08%)涨幅居前；计算机(-2.36%)，通信(-2.08%)，电子(-1.47%)跌幅居 前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,543/175/3,690。沪深两市，机构、主力、 大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-143、-212、7、348 亿元，分别变动-218、-145、+109、+254 亿 元。 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 153.08、127.88、47.56 与 19.56 点，基差年化收益率 分别为-17.01%、-15.01%、 ...

2025年04月25日 星期五 基本面：供应端，废电瓶价格居高不下，挤压再生铅冶炼利润，冶炼企业生产积极性下降，消费端，铅蓄电 池市场淡季态势加剧，部分下游有意减产或放假，铅锭供需预期呈双降态势。近日铅价探低后回升，部分下 游企业陆续转移社会仓库的铅库存（为前期逢低采购的货源），显性库存减量或提振铅价运行重心略有上移。 交易策略：关税问题的不确定性尚存，铅供需双降，短期预计维持低位盘整。 风险提示：再生废料供应大幅恢复。 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏强运行。基本面：美联储官员讲话提振降息预期，投资者押注降息可以比之前预 | | | | 料的更早到来，美股和美债价格齐涨，美元回落，金属价格得到支撑。供应端，安塔米纳铜矿恢复生产。需 | | | 铜 | 求端，华东华南平水铜现货升水 160 元和 200 元，国内库存持续去化，国内 back 结构走强。国内近端偏紧 | | | | 格局延续。交易策略：后续关注四月数据是否体现贸易战对经济影响以及国内两会政策。建议暂时观望。风 | | | | 险提示：全球需求不 ...