金融研究 2025年5月13日 星期二 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：5 月 12 日，A 股四大股指全线上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.82%，报收 3369.24 点；深成 指上涨 1.72%，报收 10301.16 点；创业板指上涨 2.63%，报收 2064.71 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.49%， 报收 1011.23 点。市场成交 13,409 亿元，较前日增加 1,185 亿元。行业板块方面，国防军工(+4.8%)， 电力设备(+2.69%)，机械设备(+2.24%)涨幅居前；农林牧渔(-0.49%)，医药生物(-0.27%)，公用事业 (-0.26%)跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,109/198/1,101。沪深两 市，机构、主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 113、23、-94、-41 亿元，分别变动+286、+215、 -156、-345 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 130.46、105.67、37.61 与 16.02 点，基差年化收益率 分别为-18.24%、-15.72%、-8.33%与-5. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Trade war easing leads to a significant drop in gold prices and a fall in the gold - silver ratio below 100. The logic of de - dollarization remains unchanged, with short - term avoidance recommended and mid - to long - term opportunities for building long positions [1]. - For basic metals, copper is recommended for buying on dips; aluminum may be bullish in the short - term, and buying on dips is advised; alumina is recommended for shorting on rallies; zinc is expected to be weak in the medium - term; lead is likely to trade in a range with a slightly higher bottom; industrial silicon suggests waiting and watching; and tin is recommended for buying on dips [1][2][3]. - In the black industry, for steel, hold short positions and relevant arbitrage positions; for iron ore, try short positions in the 2509 contract; and for coking coal, it is advisable to wait and watch [4][5]. - In the agricultural products market, soybeans are expected to be volatile, corn futures prices will consolidate, sugar may be bullish in the short - term and bearish later, cotton suggests waiting and watching, palm oil should focus on relevant reports and policies, eggs and pork prices are expected to be weak, and apples suggest waiting and watching [6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, LLDPE, PP, and styrene are expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term; rubber suggests waiting and watching in the short - term and shorting in the medium - term; and crude oil is recommended for shorting on rallies [8][9]. - In the shipping industry, the short - term outlook for European line container shipping is bullish, but be cautious about chasing high prices in the 06 contract [10][11]. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Overnight, precious metal prices dropped significantly due to trade war easing. The gold - silver ratio fell below 100 [1]. - **News**: China and the US cancelled 91% of additional tariffs and suspended 24% of counter - tariffs. Traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, and Goldman Sachs postponed the expected rate - cut time to December [1]. - **Economic Data**: The US government's April fiscal budget surplus increased by 23% year - on - year to $258.4 billion, and customs tariff revenue reached a record high of $16 billion [1]. - **Inventory Data**: Domestic gold ETFs had outflows. COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged at 1217 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory remained at 15 tons. London's April gold inventory increased slightly. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9 tons to 924 tons, and India's March silver imports decreased to about 180 tons [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Avoid in the short - term due to trade war easing, and consider building long positions in the mid - to long - term. For silver, short on rallies or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Basic Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated slightly higher yesterday, but were constrained by the strong US dollar index [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of copper ore remains tight. Domestic inventory increased slightly, and the back structure weakened [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum contract rose 1.66% yesterday [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased slightly as smelters maintained high - load production, and demand improved as the operating rate of aluminum products increased [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The export of aluminum products may improve, and aluminum prices may be bullish in the short - term. Buy on dips [1]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the 2509 contract rose 0.57% yesterday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased as refineries carried out maintenance and production cuts, while demand increased as electrolytic aluminum smelters maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price rebounded in the short - term, but the long - term supply - demand surplus remains. Short on rallies [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the 2506 contract rose 1.35% yesterday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure remains as new smelter capacity increases and imports rise. Consumption decreased in May due to tariff impacts and weak domestic demand [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the medium - term [2]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The 2506 contract rose 1.13% yesterday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply may tighten as secondary lead production becomes unprofitable and primary lead plants plan maintenance. Consumption is weak due to the off - season and export difficulties [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price bottom may rise slightly, but it will mainly trade in a range [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The 2506 contract rose 115 yuan yesterday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is strong and demand is weak. Sichuan's production recovered, and Yunnan reduced production. Demand from the polysilicon and organosilicon industries is limited [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and watch as the weekly production has declined [2]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The 2507 contract rose 1020 yuan yesterday due to short - covering [2][3]. - **Marginal Changes**: The US postponed a 24% tariff on "reciprocal tariffs" for 90 days, and the comprehensive tariff rate for power batteries and energy - storage batteries decreased. The impact on lithium demand is controllable [2][3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand is expected to be more balanced in May. Supply decreased slightly, and demand from the domestic new energy vehicle market was lower than expected. Inventory decreased slightly last week [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be bullish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term. Hold short positions or take short - term profits [2][3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The PS2506 contract rose 620 yuan yesterday [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to be flat or slightly lower in May. Demand from downstream wafer factories is limited [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions as the number of registered warehouse receipts is much smaller than the open interest. Pay attention to the willingness of enterprises to deliver when the price reaches 40,000 yuan [3]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices fluctuated slightly higher yesterday [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The reduction of tariffs between China and the US boosted the consumer electronics industry, which is positive for tin prices. Domestic warehouse receipts decreased, and London's inventory increased [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips [3]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The 2510 contract of rebar rose 65 yuan yesterday [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar inventory decreased, and the supply - demand balance is seasonal. The impact of the Sino - US trade negotiation has been mostly digested [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions and relevant arbitrage positions. The reference range for RB10 is 3040 - 3110 yuan [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of iron ore rose 22.5 yuan yesterday [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased slightly, and demand remained strong. However, the profit of steel mills narrowed, and the medium - term supply surplus remains. The impact of the Sino - US trade negotiation has been mostly digested [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try short positions in the 2509 contract. The reference range for I09 is 700 - 730 yuan [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of coking coal rose 3 yuan yesterday [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Iron ore production increased slightly, and the profit of steel mills narrowed. The first round of price increases was implemented, and the overall supply - demand is relatively loose. The impact of the Sino - US trade negotiation has been mostly digested [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and watch. The reference range for JM09 is 850 - 900 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose due to positive USDA reports [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is loose in the near - term in South America and tight in the long - term in the US. Demand is dominated by South America in the short - term, and US soybean demand is seasonally weak [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are expected to be volatile, and domestic soybeans will follow the international market after stabilizing. Pay attention to trade policies and US soybean production [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The 2507 contract of corn corrected, and the price of deep - processed corn fell in North China and remained stable in Northeast China [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand is tightening this year. The transfer of grain ownership to channels increases their bargaining power. Substitute imports are expected to decrease, but short - term spot sentiment may cool down [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices will consolidate due to falling spot prices and eased trade tensions [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The 09 contract of Zhengzhou sugar rose 0.19% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Raw sugar rebounded due to macro and crude oil factors. The price is supported at 17 cents/lb. China's sugar market is in the pure sales period, and inventory is low. The price trend will follow raw sugar [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bullish in the short - term and bearish later. Pay attention to the time of concentrated imports [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Overnight, US cotton prices fluctuated, and Zhengzhou cotton prices rose due to tariff policy changes [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazil's April cotton exports were stable compared to March and decreased by 1% year - on - year. China's April textile and clothing exports increased. The expected production of Xinjiang cotton in the 25/26 season may increase [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and watch, and use a range - trading strategy [6]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian market was closed yesterday [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased seasonally in the producing areas, and exports improved [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Palm oil is in a seasonally weak stage. Pay attention to the MPOB report today and production and biodiesel policies later [7]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The 2506 contract of eggs rebounded, and the spot price rose [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is high, and demand is weak due to high - temperature and high - humidity weather and low vegetable prices. Cost provides some support [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate [7]. Pork - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of pork fluctuated slightly, and the spot price fell slightly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply will continue to increase, and the impact of secondary fattening on prices will weaken. Demand is in the off - season, and costs are low [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to decline with resistance. Pay attention to enterprise sales rhythms and secondary fattening trends [7]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The main contract of apples rose 0.32% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Extreme weather may affect apple production in the new season, especially in Shaanxi. Low inventory and expected production reduction support prices, but consumption needs attention [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and watch [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract rose slightly yesterday due to positive news from Sino - US tariff negotiations. The basis weakened, and the import window closed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased as new plants were put into operation and existing plants had more unexpected maintenance. Demand is in the off - season for agricultural films, but there may be a rush to export [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Slightly bullish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term. Short on rallies for far - month contracts [8]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract rose 2.18% on Monday [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Thai raw material prices were not reported due to the Buddha's Birthday festival. Social inventory increased slightly [9]. - **Market Logic**: Positive signals from Sino - US negotiations boosted the market [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bullish in the short - term but with limited upside. Wait and watch in the short - term and short in the medium - term [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract rebounded slightly yesterday due to positive news from Sino - US tariff negotiations. The basis strengthened, the import window closed, and the export window opened [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased as some plants resumed production and new plants were put into operation. Demand from the downstream home appliance and automobile industries is mixed, and there may be a rush to export [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Slightly bullish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term. Short on rallies for far - month contracts [9]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices rose yesterday due to positive Sino - US tariff negotiation results, but the increase was limited due to supply pressure [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to exceed demand in the second half of the year even if demand is adjusted upwards [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term trading range is adjusted to $60 - 70 per barrel for Brent. Short on rallies [9]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main contract rose significantly yesterday due to positive news from Sino - US tariff negotiations. The import window closed [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories are expected to increase slightly in May. Demand from downstream industries is weak, but there may be a rush to export [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Slightly bullish in the short - term. Do positive arbitrage on the monthly spread [9]. Shipping European Line Container Shipping - **Market Performance**: The main contract hit the daily limit after the Geneva meeting [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Demand improved after tariff negotiations, but European line cargo volume was still moderate. Supply will be adjusted on the US line, and large European line ships are still being launched [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bullish in the short - term, but be cautious about chasing high prices in the 06 contract. Do 8 - 10 positive arbitrage [10][11].

金融研究 2025年5月12日 星期一 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：5 月 9 日，A 股四大股指有所回调，其中上证指数下跌 0.3%，报收 3342 点；深成指下 跌 0.69%，报收 10126.83 点；创业板指下跌 0.87%，报收 2011.77 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.96%， 报收 1006.32 点。市场成交 12,224 亿元，较前日减少 994 亿元。行业板块方面，美容护理(+1.41%)， 银行(+1.36%)，纺织服饰(+0.72%)涨幅居前；电子(-2.07%)，计算机(-1.96%)，国防军工(-1.87%)跌 幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,212/135/4,061。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-174、-192、62、304 亿元，分别变动-244、-103、+156、 +191 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 136.88、116.92、37.56 与 17.81 点，基差年化收益率 分别为-18.75%、-17.03%、-8.14%与-5.53%，三年期历史分 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and shipping. It offers market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each sector, with an overall cautious and diversified view on the market trends, influenced by factors such as economic data, trade policies, and supply - demand dynamics [1][2][3] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: International gold prices rose 0.57% last Friday. Multiple factors influenced the market, and with the unchanged de - dollarization logic, it is recommended to hold long gold positions. The gold - silver ratio remained above 100, and it is advised to short silver on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1] - **Silver**: After the holiday, the pattern of strong gold and weak silver remained. With the gold - silver ratio above 100, it is recommended to short silver on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1] Base Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices oscillated on Friday, and the US copper strengthened before the morning session. The short - term market risk appetite was boosted by the Sino - US negotiation, leading to stronger copper prices. The tight supply of copper ore continued [2] - **Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum rose 0.54% on Friday. The supply side maintained high - load production, and the demand side saw a slight increase in the start - up rate. It is expected that the aluminum price will oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [2][3] - **Alumina**: The price of alumina rose 3.06% on Friday. The supply side had reduced production due to maintenance, while the demand side had an increase in operating capacity. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price fell on Friday. The supply was strong and the demand was weak, and it is recommended to wait and see as the downward driving force is limited [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract fell 4.46% week - on - week. The supply - demand is expected to be more relaxed in May, and it is recommended to hold short positions or wait and see [3] - **Polysilicon**: The price of the main contract rose. The supply is expected to be flat or slightly lower in May, and long positions can be held due to the issue of the number of registered warehouse receipts being far less than the positions [3] - **Tin**: Tin prices oscillated on Friday. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and it is recommended to adopt a range - bound trading strategy in the short - term [4] Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main contract of rebar was weakly oscillating. The supply - demand of steel was seasonally deteriorating, but the contradiction was not significant. It is expected that the steel futures price will oscillate widely, and it is recommended to hold short positions and relevant arbitrage positions [5] - **Iron Ore**: The main contract of iron ore was horizontally oscillating. The supply - demand was neutral to strong in the short - term, but the medium - term surplus pattern remained. It is recommended to try short positions on the 2509 contract and wait and see for arbitrage [5] - **Coking Coal**: The main contract of coking coal was weakly oscillating. The overall supply - demand was relatively loose, and it is recommended to wait and see [5] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose last Friday. The supply was loose in the near - term in South America and the sowing in the US was accelerating in the long - term. The US soybeans are expected to oscillate, and the domestic soybeans are short - term bearish and medium - term follow the international market [6] - **Corn**: The 2507 contract of corn was narrowly oscillating. The supply - demand was tightening, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to be bullish [7] - **Sugar**: ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar both rose. The raw sugar's later trend will be affected by Brazil's crushing progress and sugar - alcohol ratio. Domestic sugar is short - term bullish and long - term bearish [7] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price was flat, and the Zhengzhou cotton price rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - bound strategy [7] - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil rose. The supply was seasonally increasing, and the demand was improving. It is in a seasonally weak stage, and attention should be paid to relevant reports and policies [7] - **Eggs**: The 2506 contract of eggs was narrowly oscillating. The supply was high and the demand was weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [7] - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract of hogs was narrowly oscillating. The supply will increase, and the price is expected to decline resistantly. Attention should be paid to the enterprises' slaughter rhythm and secondary fattening trends [7] - **Apples**: The main contract of apples fell last week. The new - season production is worried due to extreme weather, and it is recommended to wait and see [7][8] Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract of LLDPE fell slightly on Friday. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline. It is short - term oscillating and long - term bearish [9] - **PVC**: The V09 contract of PVC fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to hedge after the premium is restored [9] - **PTA**: The PTA market has short - term supply pressure relief but long - term pressure. It is recommended to hold long - short spreads and look for short - selling opportunities in the far - month contracts [9] - **Rubber**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see with the improvement of the macro - atmosphere [9][10] - **Glass**: The FG09 contract of glass fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to hedge [10] - **PP**: The main contract of PP fell slightly on Friday. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline. It is short - term oscillating [10] - **MEG**: The MEG market is in a de - stocking pattern in May, and it is recommended to operate within a range [10] - **Crude Oil**: The short - term price is supported by seasonal demand, but the long - term supply surplus is significant. It is recommended to short on rallies [10][11] - **Styrene**: The main contract of styrene fell slightly on Friday. The supply and demand are expected to weaken slightly in the later period. It is short - term oscillating, and the upward movement is restricted by the import window [11] - **Soda Ash**: The SA09 contract of soda ash fell. The supply has a reduction expectation but the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [11] Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: The US is negotiating tariffs with China. The supply of the US line overflows, and the European line freight is under pressure. The overall freight rate expectation is pessimistic, and it is recommended to wait and see or take a light long position in the 8 - 10 period [12]

金融研究 2025年5月9日 星期五 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：5 月 8 日，A 股四大股指多数上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.28%，报收 3352 点；深成指上 涨 0.93%，报收 10197.66 点；创业板指上涨 1.65%，报收 2029.45 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.36%， 报收 1026.44 点。市场成交 13,218 亿元，较前日减少 1,833 亿元。行业板块方面，国防军工(+2.57%)， 银行(+1.11%)，基础化工(-0.21%)涨幅居前；传媒(+1%)，计算机(+0.71%)，电子(+0.5%)跌幅居前。 从市场强弱看，IM>IF>IC>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,837/205/1,366。沪深两市，机构、主力、大 户、散户全天资金分别净流入 70、-89、-94、113 亿元，分别变动+146、+111、-63、-195 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 139.28、113.81、36.9 与 14.71 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-18.24%、-15.9%、-7.72%与-4.43%，三年期历史分位数分别为 5%、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and shipping. Different commodities face different supply - demand situations and market factors, leading to diverse trading outlooks [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: Prices oscillated. Supply of copper ore remained tight, and domestic inventories decreased weekly. Short - term trading should adopt an oscillatory approach [1]. - **Zinc**: The 2506 contract price declined. Supply was expected to be in surplus in the long - run, and 5 - month consumption was pessimistic. If domestic demand was insufficient, prices might fall further, but short - term support came from low inventories [1]. - **Lead**: The 2506 contract price rose. Supply was affected by raw material shortages and low production enthusiasm. Demand was weak, and post - holiday inventory accumulation was likely. Buying on dips after price drops was advisable [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 2506 contract price increased. Supply was expected to increase with some restarts, and demand was weak. Short - selling on rebounds was recommended [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2507 contract price rose. Supply decreased, and demand was mixed. Futures prices were expected to oscillate downward, and holding short positions or waiting was recommended [1][2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The PS2506 contract price fluctuated. Bulls and bears were in a tug - of war, and waiting was recommended [2]. - **Tin**: Prices were strong. Market risk preference was boosted, and short - term trading should be based on an oscillatory view [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract price fell. Supply and demand were both weak, and inventory pressure was low due to low production. Short positions should be held [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract price declined. Near - term supply - demand was neutral - strong, but medium - term surplus was expected. Short positions in the 2509 contract could be attempted [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract price decreased. Supply - demand was relatively loose, and waiting was recommended [3][4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans were expected to oscillate, and domestic soybeans were short - term bearish and medium - term followed the international market. Trade policies and sowing areas should be monitored [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract price oscillated. Supply - demand tightened, and prices were expected to rise. Buying on dips was recommended [5]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract price rose. Brazil's new season was expected to be productive, and domestic prices were expected to fall with a smaller margin. A bearish trading approach was recommended [5]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and Zhengzhou cotton prices also declined. Selling on rallies was recommended [5]. - **Log**: The 07 contract price dropped. Supply was strong, demand was weak, and waiting was recommended [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices rose. Supply was seasonally increasing, and demand improved. It was in a seasonal weak phase, and production and policies should be monitored [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2506 contract price oscillated. Supply was high, and prices were expected to decline [6]. - **Pigs**: The 2509 contract price oscillated. Supply was increasing, and prices were expected to decline with resistance [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract price fell. Supply was increasing, and demand was expected to decline. Short - term and long - term short - selling on rallies were recommended [7]. - **PVC**: The V09 contract price declined. Supply was large, and exports cooled. After the contract returned to a high premium, hedging was recommended [7]. - **PTA**: PX supply decreased, and PTA short - term pressure eased. Positive spreads should be held, and short - selling on far - month rebounds was recommended [8]. - **Glass**: The FG09 contract price fell. Supply was increasing, and inventory was accumulating. Prices were expected to continue falling [8]. - **PP**: The main contract price fell. Supply was rising, and demand was expected to weaken due to tariffs. Short - term prices were expected to oscillate downward [8]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure increased, and demand was weak. Short - term waiting was recommended, and cost support should be monitored [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices rebounded. Short - term prices were expected to oscillate, and the Brent price range was $55 - 65 per barrel [8][9]. - **Styrene**: Supply was expected to accumulate slightly, and demand was affected by tariffs. Prices were expected to follow the cost of pure benzene and oscillate downward [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA09 contract price fell. Supply was high, and inventory was difficult to digest. Prices were expected to oscillate, and selling out - of - the - money call options at 1500 was recommended [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The sh09 contract price fell. Inventory decreased, and prices were expected to stop falling and stabilize [9]. Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: The main contract price fell. Supply was affected by tariff policies, and demand was mixed. Unilateral trading should wait, and a light - position long spread for 8 - 10 months could be tried [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to stabilize from four perspectives, and it is recommended to buy index futures on dips. Short-term IC and IM have more elasticity, while medium- and long-term IH and IF are more attractive in terms of valuation [4]. - The short-term funds are neutral. After the unexpected implementation of US tariffs, there are signs of easing. Although global trade uncertainties still exist, government bonds have gradually returned to pricing based on economic fundamentals. In the short term, government bond prices are expected to fluctuate; in the long term, the timing and intensity of fiscal/monetary policies will affect the price trend of government bond futures [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Economic Data - High-frequency data shows that the recent infrastructure boom has slightly increased, while the import and export boom has decreased [7]. (2) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On May 7th, the four major A-share stock indexes all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.8% to close at 3342.67 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.22% to close at 10104.13 points; the ChiNext Index rose 0.51% to close at 1996.51 points; the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 0.36% to close at 1030.19 points. The market turnover was 15,051 billion yuan, an increase of 140.6 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - The basis and basis annualized yields of IM, IC, IF, and IH next-month contracts are 156.29, 130.09, 46.63, and 24.3 points, and -19.98%, -17.67%, -9.51%, and -7.11% respectively. The three-year historical quantiles are 3%, 2%, 6%, and 14% respectively. The futures-spot price difference has been repaired but is still at a low level [3]. (3) Government Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On May 7th, most government bond futures declined. The 2-year government bond futures fell 0.01% to close at 102.31 points; the 5-year government bond futures fell 0.08% to close at 106 points; the 10-year government bond futures fell 0.19% to close at 108.85 points; the 30-year government bond futures fell 0.62% to close at 120.14 points [4]. - In terms of the current bond, the CTD bonds of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond futures have corresponding net basis and IRR. In terms of the money market, the central bank's net withdrawal was 33.53 billion yuan. In the short term, government bond prices are expected to fluctuate; in the long term, the timing and intensity of fiscal/monetary policies will affect the price trend of government bond futures [5].

| 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏弱运行。基本面：昨日国新办会议市场整体冲高回落，有利好落地的意思。美联 储按兵不动，以及鲍威尔重申愿意等前景更明朗再行动，美元指数走强，基本金属承压。供应端，铜矿紧张 | | | 格局延续。华东华南平水铜现货升水 250 元和 170 元成交。伦敦结构 23 美金 back。交易策略：短期以宽幅 | | | 震荡思路对待。风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | 碳 | 2507 64160 元/吨（-1100）。基本面：碳酸锂供应端减量高企。国内碳酸锂周 市场表现：昨日主力 合约收于 | | 酸 | 产量回落但维持高位在 16900 吨，环比-2.81%，4 月 SMM 碳酸锂产量为 73810 实物吨，环比-6.5%，预计 5 | | 锂 | 月产量高企在 75500 实物吨。需求端，国内新能源车 4 月渗透率突破 50%，3 月产销同比新高。海外新能源 | | | 汽车景气度预期分化，欧洲需求或因改变对华电车关税走强，美国需求因加征关税提前释放，后期预期走弱。 | 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | - ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to hold long positions in gold; for silver, it is advisable to sell short on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio when appropriate [1]. - For base metals, different metals have different trading strategies based on their supply - demand fundamentals, such as maintaining a buy - on - dips strategy for copper and zinc, and waiting for downstream restocking for lead [1][2][3]. - In the black industry, the overall situation is relatively balanced, with a wait - and - see strategy recommended, and some specific contract positions need to be adjusted according to market conditions [4]. - In the agricultural products market, different products have different trends and trading strategies, such as a bearish view on sugar and a wait - and - see approach for logs [5][6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, most products are expected to be weak in the short - term, and it is recommended to sell short on rebounds, while the overall trend of oil prices is bearish [9][10]. - In the shipping industry, the overall outlook for shipping rates is pessimistic in the context of the trade war, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Overnight, precious metals strengthened with international gold prices rising 2.9%. There are geopolitical events, economic data showing a widened US trade deficit, and changes in inventory. It is recommended to hold long gold positions [1]. - **Silver**: It is recommended to sell short on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio. After the holiday, gold rose while silver was weak, and the gold - silver ratio reached 102 [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price was strong yesterday. With positive news on the Sino - US economic and trade front and a tight supply of copper ore, it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Zinc**: The price of the 2505 contract rose 0.44% yesterday. The supply is expected to be in surplus, and the short - term price has support from low inventory. It is necessary to pay attention to the arrival of imported zinc and inventory changes [2][3]. - **Lead**: The price of the 2505 contract fell 1.07% yesterday. The supply of raw materials is tight, and consumption is weak after the holiday. It is advisable to buy on dips after the price falls [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price hit a new low after the holiday. Supply may increase slightly, and demand is weak. It is recommended to sell short on rebounds [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract fell. Supply is high, and demand has different trends at home and abroad. It is recommended to sell short on the main contract or short the far - month contract [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price hit a new low after the holiday. Supply and demand are both weak, and it is recommended to sell short on the 07 contract's rebounds [3]. - **Tin**: The price was strong yesterday. With positive news on the Sino - US economic and trade front, a short - term range - bound trading strategy is recommended [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2510 contract was flat. Inventory is decreasing, and the overall supply - demand is balanced. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended, and short positions in the coil - rebar spread can be held [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2509 contract was strong. Supply is in line with seasonal patterns, and demand has limited growth space. It is recommended to close previous short positions, and aggressive investors can try to go long [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2509 contract was weak. Supply is relatively loose, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [4]. Agricultural Products Market - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean price fell. Supply is different in the near and far term, and demand is weak. The domestic market is short - term bearish and mid - term follows the international market [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract was strong. Supply is tightening, and demand is increasing. The price is expected to rise [6][7]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract rose slightly. Brazil's new season has a strong start, and the domestic market is expected to follow the decline of raw sugar, with a bearish trading strategy [7]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fell, and the domestic Zhengzhou cotton price rebounded. It is recommended to sell short on rebounds [7]. - **Logs**: The 07 contract rose slightly. Supply is strong, and demand is weak. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The price fell yesterday. Supply is increasing seasonally, and demand is improving. The short - term price is falling, and the mid - term is in a weak stage [7]. - **Eggs**: The 2506 contract continued to fall. Supply is high, and the price is expected to be weak [7][8]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract was range - bound. Supply is increasing, and the price is expected to decline with resistance [8]. Energy and Chemical Industry - **LLDPE**: The main contract fell slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to sell short on rebounds in the short and long term [9]. - **PVC**: The price fell. Supply is increasing, and inventory is falling. It is recommended to hedge after the price returns to a high premium [9]. - **Glass**: The price fell. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure [9]. - **PP**: The main contract fell slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is affected by tariffs. A short - term bearish strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the start - up rate of PDH plants [9][10]. - **Crude Oil**: The price rebounded slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is affected by trade frictions. It is recommended to sell short on rebounds, with a short - term trading range of Brent at $55 - 65 per barrel [10]. - **Styrene**: The price fell slightly. Supply may accumulate inventory, and demand is affected by tariffs. The price is expected to follow the cost and be weak [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The price fell. Supply has maintenance, and demand is affected by glass. The price is expected to fall, and it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money call options [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price rose. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak except for the alumina industry. The price is expected to stabilize [10][11]. Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: The main contract rose 0.1%. Trade war and geopolitical factors affect supply and demand. The overall outlook for shipping rates is pessimistic, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [11].

金融研究 2025年5月7日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：5 月 6 日，A 股四大股指全线上行，其中上证指数上涨 1.13%，报收 3316.11 点；深成指 上涨 1.84%，报收 10082.34 点；创业板指上涨 1.97%，报收 1986.41 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.39%， 报收 1026.52 点。市场成交 13,644 亿元，较前日增加 1,714 亿元。行业板块方面，计算机(+3.65%)， 通信(+3.59%)，综合(+3.38%)涨幅居前；银行(-0.13%)，食品饮料(+0.35%)，美容护理(+0.43%)跌 幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,959/70/379。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 196、60、-149、-107 亿元，分别变动+164、+99、-78、-184 亿元。 风险提示：美国双边政策不确定性、财政扩张进度不及预期。 市场表现：5 月 6 日，国债期货涨跌不一，其中 2 年期国债期货下跌 0.06%，报收 102.31 点，5 年 期国债期货下跌 0.04%，报收 1 ...