招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：上周贵金属市场大幅波动，以伦敦银计价的国际银价跌幅超过 10%；消息面，美国参议院通过预 算决议，特朗普税收、边境安全和军事优先事项法案获"关键突破"。经济数据方面，美国 3 月非农就业人口 增长 22.8 万，高于预期的增加 14 万，前值从增加 15.1 万下修为增加 11.7 万；3 月失业率升至 4.2%，预期 4.1%，前值 4.1%。库存数据方面，印度 2 月白银进口减至 250 吨左右；上期所白银库存增加 11 吨至 1186 吨，金交所白银库存上周增加 52 吨 1731 吨。伦敦 2 月库存减少 1056 吨至 22446 吨，主要流向美国。随着 黄金回调，白银价格也出现了明显回落。操作上，建议白银空单继续持有注意仓位或者做多金银比。风险点： 美国经济大幅衰退 基本金属 招商评论 | 铜 | 市场表现：清明节外盘铜期货市场暴跌，周一国内开盘前，美铜的暴跌依然继续，对应国内价格可能要去到 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 71000 元以下。观察黄金和比特币的情况，我们认为 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term sector rotation and uncertainties in US bilateral policies may increase spot market volatility. Given that the IF valuation is still low, it is recommended to allocate at low prices [2]. - Recent short - term capital tightness has eased. With dense macro - side changes, if the economy continues to recover under policy support, long - term interest rates are expected to rise further [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent economic fundamentals have a differentiated prosperity. The real estate and infrastructure sectors have weak prosperity, while the manufacturing sector has slightly improved [4]. Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On April 2, most of the four major A - share stock indexes rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05% to 3350.13 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09% to 10513.12 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.13% to 2104.63 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 0.16% to 1022.75 points. Market turnover was 992.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 160.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - In terms of industry sectors, textile and apparel (+1.45%), beauty care (+1.01%), and communication (+0.97%) led the gains; national defense and military industry (-1.17%), non - ferrous metals (-0.87%), and public utilities (-0.8%) led the losses [1]. - From the perspective of market strength, IM>IC>IF>IH. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2755/218/2425 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of 20.24 billion, 7.2 billion, - 8.71 billion, and - 6.04 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +11.79 billion, +0.67 billion, - 3.31 billion, and - 0.34 billion yuan respectively [1]. - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 102.65, 72.69, 5.59, and - 3.18 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were - 14.1%, - 10.62%, - 1.24%, and 1.03% respectively, and the three - year historical quantiles were 10%, 8%, 44%, and 56% respectively. Currently, the discount of small - and medium - cap stock indexes is still large, and although the futures - spot price difference has recovered, it is still at a low level [1]. Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On April 2, treasury bond futures rose across the board. The 2 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.04% to 102.39 points, the 5 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.15% to 105.75 points, the 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.26% to 108.05 points, and the 30 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.86% to 117.18 points [2]. - For the current active 2506 contract, the CTD bonds of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had yield changes of - 1.5bps, - 3.25bps, - 3bps, and - 4.5bps respectively, corresponding net bases of - 0.092, - 0.101, - 0.072, and - 0.012, and IRRs of 2.29%, 2.31%, 2.19%, and 1.86% respectively. Currently, CTD bonds of all maturities have high IRRs and low bases, indicating potential arbitrage opportunities [2]. - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 22.99 billion yuan and withdrew 45.54 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 22.55 billion yuan [2]. - Short - term capital rates have declined. For example, SHIBOR overnight decreased from 1.82 to 1.76, and DR001 decreased from 1.83 to 1.74 [13].

2025年04月03日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 基本金属 招商评论 | 铜 | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏弱运行，美铜在特朗普关税政策落地后加速下跌。基本面：特朗普关税政策令市 场担忧美国全球衰退，全球股市走弱，离岸人民币走弱，预期将对金属带来下行压力。华东华南平水铜现货 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 升水 20 元和贴水 15 元成交，精废价差 1500 元。交易策略：短期铜价预期交易全球衰退预期，下行压力较 | | | | | | | | | | | 大。风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | | | | | | | | 市场表现：昨日锌 2504 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.93%，收于 23,410 元/吨。国内 0-3 月差 100 元/吨 Back， 海外 26 美元/吨 Con 结构，华南、华东对 2504 合约 20（+15）元/吨升水， 50 元/吨（+40）升水。 | 0-3 | 月差 | | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term sector rotation and uncertainties in US bilateral policies may increase spot market volatility. Currently, the valuation of IF is still low, and it is recommended to allocate it on dips [2] - The recent tightness in short - term funds has eased. With frequent changes on the macro side, if the economy continues to recover with policy support, long - term interest rates are expected to rise further [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent economic fundamentals have a differentiated level of prosperity. The prosperity of the real estate and infrastructure sectors is weak, while that of the manufacturing sector has slightly improved [4] (2) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On April 1, the four major A - share stock indexes showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.38% to close at 3348.44 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.01% to close at 10503.66 points; the ChiNext Index fell 0.09% to close at 2101.88 points; the STAR 50 Index rose 0.16% to close at 1024.38 points. The market turnover was 1.1528 trillion yuan, a decrease of 905 million yuan from the previous day [1] - In terms of industry sectors, pharmaceutical biology (+3.34%), public utilities (+1.78%), and national defense and military industry (+1.46%) led the gains; household appliances (-1.71%), computers (-0.97%), and automobiles (-0.9%) led the losses [1] - From the perspective of market strength, IC > IM > IF > IH. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 3849/145/1403 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of 8.45 billion, 6.53 billion, - 5.4 billion, and - 5.7 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +6.61 billion, +12.88 billion, +12.46 billion, and +0.68 billion yuan respectively [1] - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 116.48, 86.85, 8.08, and - 3.89 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 15.51%, - 12.28%, - 1.73%, and 1.22% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles were 6%, 5%, 38%, and 59% respectively. Currently, the discount of small - and medium - cap stock indexes is still large, and although the futures - spot price difference has been repaired, it is still at a low level [1] (3) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On April 1, most treasury bond futures fell. The 2 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.04% to close at 102.35 points, the 5 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.04% to close at 105.57 points, the 10 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.08% to close at 107.76 points, and the 30 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.15% to close at 116.21 points [2] - For the current active contract 2506, the CTD bond of the 2 - year treasury bond futures is 240024.IB, with a yield change of +1 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.078, and an IRR of 2.21%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year treasury bond futures is 240014.IB, with a yield change of +1.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.046, and an IRR of 2.06%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year treasury bond futures is 220003.IB, with a yield change of +2.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.005, and an IRR of 1.87%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year treasury bond futures is 200012.IB, with a yield change of - 0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.03, and an IRR of 1.71%. Currently, short - term bonds have high IRR and low basis, indicating potential arbitrage opportunities between futures and spot [2] - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 6.49 billion yuan and withdrew 37.79 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 31.3 billion yuan [2]

2025年04月02日 星期三 商品期货早班车 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周二国际贵金属市场回落；消息面，市场等待特朗普最终关税内容。经济数据方面，美国 2 月职 位空缺 756.8 万人，预期 765.5 万人，前值为 776 万人；美国 3 月 ISM 制造业指数 49，不及预期的 49.5，2 月前值为 50.3。库存数据方面，印度 2 月白银进口减至 250 吨左右；上期所白银库存减少 7 吨至 1167 吨， 金交所白银库存上周增加 52 吨 1731 吨。伦敦 2 月库存减少 1056 吨至 22446 吨，主要流向美国。近期伦敦 市场白银可能再次出现挤仓，部分投资者认为银价相对金价低估而涌入白银市场。操作上，建议白银空单适 当控制仓位或者做多金银比。风险点：美国经济大幅衰退 基本金属 招商评论 | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏弱。基本面：美国 ISM 制造业 PMI 今年首次出现萎缩，劳动力市场温和放缓，2 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 月 JOLTS 职位空缺不及预期。市场依旧担心美国滞胀或者衰退风险。华东华南平水铜现货升水 5 ...

2025年4月1日 星期二 金融研究 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | | 市场表现：3 月 日，A 股四大股指有所回调，其中上证指数下跌 0.46%，报收 点；深成 31 | | 3335.75 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指下跌 0.97%，报收 10504.33 点；创业板指下跌 1.15%，报收 2103.7 点；科创 0.66%， | 50 | 指数下跌 | | | 报收 1022.71 点。市场成交 12,433 亿元，较前日增加 983 亿元。行业板块方面，通信(+0.58%)，家 | | | | | 用电器(+0.37%)，银行(+0.35%)涨幅居前；电力设备(-1.94%)，国防军工(-1.81%)，房地产(-1.8%) | | | | | 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IM>IF>IC，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,287/83/4,026。机构、主力、大 | | | | | 户、散户全天资金分别净流入 18.4、-63.5、-178.6、-63.8 亿元，分别变动-66.2、+82.7、+165.9、 | | | | 股指期货 | +124.5 亿 ...

2025年04月01日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周一国际贵金属市场回落；消息面，特朗普将于 4 月 2 日作出抉择并宣布相关关税政策的细节， 但且不包括豁免内容。经济数据方面，中国 3 月官方制造业 PMI 50.5，制造业扩张速度一年来最快。库存数 据方面，印度 2 月白银进口减至 250 吨左右；上期所白银库存增加 17 吨至 1174 吨，金交所白银库存上周减 少 16 吨 1678 吨。伦敦 2 月库存减少 1056 吨至 22446 吨，主要流向美国。近期伦敦市场白银可能再次出现 挤仓，部分投资者认为银价相对金价低估而涌入白银市场。操作上，建议白银空单适当控制仓位或者做多金 银比。风险点：美国经济大幅衰退 基本金属 招商评论 | | 市场表现：昨日铜价继续走弱。基本面：3 月 中国电解铜产量环比增加 6.39 万吨，升幅为 6.04%，同 | | | | SMM | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the stock index futures market, short - term sector rotation and uncertainties in US bilateral policies may increase spot market volatility. It is recommended to take short - term profit on IC and IM due to intensified high - level gaming, and to allocate IF at low prices as its valuation is still low [2]. - In the bond futures market, the recent tightness in short - term funds has eased. With frequent macro - side changes, if the economy continues to recover with policy support, long - term interest rates are expected to rise further [2]. 3. Summary by Directory (1) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows a divergence in the economic fundamentals' prosperity recently. The prosperity of the real estate and infrastructure sectors is weak, while that of the manufacturing sector has slightly improved [3]. (2) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On March 28, the four major A - share stock indexes declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.67% to 3351.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.57% to 10607.33 points, the ChiNext Index decreased 0.79% to 2128.21 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 1.07% to 1029.48 points. Market turnover was 1.145 trillion yuan, a decrease of 71.7 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, media (+0.44%), non - bank finance (-0.01%), and non - ferrous metals (-0.17%) led the gains, while basic chemicals (-2.48%), petroleum and petrochemicals (-1.71%), and commercial retail (-1.6%) led the losses [2]. - Regarding the strength of the market, IH > IF > IC > IM. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 940, 111, and 4345 respectively. Institutional, main - force, large - investor, and retail - investor funds had net inflows of 8.46 billion, - 14.62 billion, - 34.45 billion, and - 18.83 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 7.78 billion, - 19.58 billion, - 21.06 billion, and - 11.64 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 106.32, 85.23, 9.77, and - 3.46 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 13.25%, - 11.26%, - 1.95%, and 1.01% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 12%, 6%, 38%, and 56% respectively. Currently, the discount of small - and medium - cap stock indexes is still large, and although the futures - spot price difference has recovered, it remains at a low level [2]. (3) Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On March 28, most bond futures weakened. The 2 - year bond futures remained flat at 102.45 points, the 5 - year bond futures fell 0.04% to 105.65 points, the 10 - year bond futures dropped 0.08% to 107.88 points, and the 30 - year bond futures fell 0.49% to 116 points [2]. - For the current active 2506 contract, the CTD bonds of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year bond futures were 240024.IB, 240014.IB, 220003.IB, and 210005.IB respectively. Their yield changes were - 2bps, - 1.75bps, - 0.25bps, and + 1.75bps respectively, with corresponding net bases of - 0.058, 0.031, 0.031, and 0.435, and IRRs of 2.31%, 1.91%, 1.91%, and 0.58% respectively. Currently, short - term bonds have high IRR and low basis, indicating potential arbitrage opportunities [2]. - In terms of the money supply, the central bank injected 78.5 billion yuan and withdrew 93 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 14.5 billion yuan [2].

期货研究报告 | 商品研究 关税即将落地，风险偏好下降 ——20250330招商期货基本金属周报 2025年03月30日 • 研究员-马芸 • mayun@cmschina.com.cn • 联系电话：18682466799 • 资格证号： Z0018708 目录 01 周度回顾 本周观点 02 品种分析：铜氧化铝铝锌铅锡 03 2 01 周度回顾 3 周度回顾 5 周度观点 6 | | | 伦铜指数 | 伦铝指数 | 伦锌指数 | 伦铅指数 | 伦镍指数 | 伦锡指数 | | 沪铜指数 | 沪铝指数 | 沪锌指数 | 沪铅指数 | 沪镍指数 | 沪锡指数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 过去一年 | | 8.7% | 7.4% | 15.3% | 0.2% | -3.8% | 30.5% | 过去一年 | 6.3% | 2.0% | 9.3% | 6.0% | -3.8% | 20.2% | | 过去一月 | | 4.3% | -3.5% | 1.8 ...

2025年03月31日 星期一 商品期货早班车 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 市场表现：周五铜价震荡偏弱。基本面：临近关税落地时间，前期多头盈利了结，呈现减仓下行。供应端， 1500-2500 | | | | | 铜矿紧张格局延续，TC 来到-24 美金。铜矿紧张伴随冶炼减产传导到精铜。需求端，当期精废价差在 | | | | | 元之间，废铜替代效应提升。交易策略：铜自身基本面依然向好，关注关税落地后交易机会，暂时观望。风 | | | | | 险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | | 市场表现：周五氧化铝 2505 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.69%，收于 3035 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 71 元/吨，美 | | | | | 金价格 美元/吨。 | 377 | | | 氧 | 基本面：供应方面，部分氧化铝厂压产和检修，运行产能下降。需求方面，电解铝厂生产较为稳定。 | | | | 化 | 交易策略：氧化铝厂减产和检修增多，运行产能阶段性下降。但新投产能陆续投产达产（广西某厂二期 | | 100 | | | 万吨基本 ...