1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products**: Cautiously bullish [1][3][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Short - term long - position profit - taking, mid - term short - position layout [1][6][7][8] - **Coke**: Stay on the sidelines [1][9][11][12] - **Coking Coal**: Stay on the sidelines [1][13][15][16] - **Ferroalloys**: Cautiously bullish [1][17][19][20] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel Products**: The news of coal production restrictions drives the overall upward movement of the black market, strengthening the bullish sentiment. For rebar, production and apparent demand decline month - on - month, with a slight increase in total inventory, showing off - season characteristics. The significant increase in hot metal production boosts the expected demand for furnace materials. For hot - rolled coils, production, apparent demand, and inventory change little, with a relatively stable fundamental situation and limited contradictions [1][4]. - **Iron Ore**: Fundamentally, hot metal production increases significantly, with both supply - side shipments and arrivals rising, and there will be more shipments later. Ports are destocking while steel mills are restocking. Recently, steel mills have good profits and high production enthusiasm, and the locked - in profits on the futures market drive the strong performance of iron ore. However, as the recent rise is rapid, there are profit - taking opportunities, so previous long positions should be closed, and attention should be paid to the subsequent supply - side reform policies [1][7]. - **Coke**: The second round of spot price increases has started, and there are still expectations for further increases. The news of coal production restrictions boosts market sentiment. After the rapid price increase, steel mills' restocking makes the market more positive. However, the current market atmosphere seems overly exuberant, so it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [1][11]. - **Coking Coal**: The news of coal production restrictions strengthens the bullish sentiment in the market, and the futures price has risen significantly recently. In terms of supply and demand, domestic coking coal production has rebounded recently, approaching last year's level. Some shut - down coal mines have resumed production since July, and supply is expected to increase later. The inventory has shifted from upstream to downstream, and the total inventory remains stable. Spot trading has improved, and market sentiment has generally improved. However, the futures market sentiment is overly exuberant, so it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [1][15]. - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, the supply increases while the demand decreases. Although the hot metal production is at a high level, the month - on - month decline in rebar production drags down the demand for ferromanganese, but the slight increase in raw material prices strongly supports the cost. For ferrosilicon, the supply increases while the demand decreases. The factory inventory pressure has been relieved, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period, with obvious near - end warehouse receipt pressure. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunities [1][19]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Information**: Rebar 01 is at 3367 with a rise of 90; rebar 05 is at 3386 with a rise of 93; rebar 10 is at 3307 with a rise of 83. Hot - rolled coil 01 is at 3492 with a rise of 82; hot - rolled coil 05 is at 3490 with a rise of 77; hot - rolled coil 10 is at 3477 with a rise of 83. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions also show certain changes [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Rebar is expected to continue its strong performance with limited short - term decline due to policy expectations and the increase in hot metal production. Hot - rolled coils may maintain a strong short - term trend due to factors such as macro - policies, anti - involution, and industry production restrictions, as well as the sharp rise in raw material prices [1][5]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: Iron ore 01 is at 794 with a rise of 17; iron ore 05 is at 771 with a rise of 16; iron ore 09 is at 823 with a rise of 14. The prices of various iron ore powders also change accordingly, and there are also fluctuations in spreads, basis, freight rates, and spot indices [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term long positions should take profits, and mid - term short positions can be considered [1][8]. Coke - **Price and Data Information**: The 1 - month contract of coke is at 1752.0 with a rise of 98.0; the 5 - month contract is at 1797.5 with a rise of 98.5; the 9 - month contract is at 1697.5 with a rise of 94.5. There are also changes in basis, spot prices, and weekly data such as capacity utilization, production, and inventory [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines due to the over - exuberant market atmosphere [1][12]. Coking Coal - **Price and Data Information**: The 1 - month contract of coking coal is at 1137.0 with a rise of 81.0; the 5 - month contract is at 1154.0 with a rise of 79.5; the 9 - month contract is at 1048.5 with a rise of 42.5. There are changes in basis, spot prices, and weekly data such as the start - up rate of coal washing plants, production, and inventory [14]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines because of the overly exuberant futures market sentiment [1][16]. Ferroalloys - **Price Information**: Manganese silicon 01 is at 6084 with a rise of 120; manganese silicon 05 is at 6130 with a rise of 142; manganese silicon 09 is at 6012 with a rise of 98. Silicon iron 01 is at 5952 with a rise of 206; silicon iron 05 is at 6012 with a rise of 220; silicon iron 09 is at 5874 with a rise of 206. There are also changes in spot prices, spreads, and weekly data such as enterprise start - up rates and production [18]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For ferromanganese, short - term trading is mainly driven by sentiment, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. In the medium term, the price may face pressure as the fundamentals return to a loose state. For ferrosilicon, the short - term high market sentiment may lead to a correction, and in the medium term, the price will still face pressure as the fundamentals return to a loose state [1][20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings provided in the report Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: It is expected to trade in a wide range. Short - term rebound should be treated with caution. In the short - term, under the dual influence of weak fundamentals and Sino - US trade tariff cost support, it will show a wide - range market. The main trading range is [3050, 3120] [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is also expected to trade in a wide range. Short - term trend is bullish, but chasing long positions requires careful position and risk control management. Pay attention to the improvement of China - Canada relations and China - Australia progress. The main trading range is [2670, 2800] [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Be cautious when chasing long positions. Although there are some bullish factors, considering the supply season in Southeast Asia and the large inverted spread between soybean oil and palm oil, it is difficult to force a short - squeeze. The main trading range is [8850, 9150] [1]. - **Cotton**: Be cautious about shorting. Although the short - term bullish sentiment of funds is strong, the conditions for a short - squeeze are not complete. Be vigilant against the negative feedback from weakening downstream demand. The main trading range is [14100, 14350] [1]. - **Red Dates**: Be cautious about shorting. The expected production reduction is gradually being disproven, and the high inventory makes it difficult for the price to rise. However, due to the relatively low price level, the downside space is limited [1]. - **Hogs**: Be cautiously bullish. The short - term price is supported by slow - down in slaughter rhythm and farmers' reluctance to sell, but there is still supply pressure in the medium and long - term. Consider going long on the 01 contract at low prices or using a cross - year reverse spread strategy [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Supply and Demand**: According to CPC's monthly outlook, the planting weather for US soybeans in July was generally smooth, and South America had a bumper harvest. In China, ports and oil mills are in the inventory - building stage, and feed companies' inventory is higher than last year, with reduced enthusiasm for further restocking [1]. - **Price Movement**: The news of Indonesia's commitment to purchase $4.5 billion of US agricultural products boosted the price of US soybeans. China's soybean meal prices continued to rise. The futures price of the main contract closed at 3086 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [1][2]. - **Market Strategy**: Short - term rebound should be treated with caution. When approaching or above the previous high, continue to chase long positions with proper position and risk control management [1]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply and Demand**: Global rapeseed production has recovered year - on - year, but soil moisture in Canada is dry. In China, the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in oil mills has decreased month - on - month, but is still high year - on - year. From July to September, rapeseed imports will decrease significantly year - on - year, and the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal supports the price [1]. - **Price Movement**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2736 yuan/ton, up 0.33%. The short - term trend is bullish [1][4]. - **Market Strategy**: Short - term trend is bullish, but chasing long positions requires careful position and risk control management. Pay attention to the improvement of China - Canada relations and China - Australia progress [1]. Palm Oil - **Supply and Demand**: The July USDA supply - demand report lowered the global palm oil ending inventory for the new year. India's palm oil imports in June increased by 61.19% month - on - month. However, the export and production data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 15 days of this month were bearish [1]. - **Price Movement**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8926 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. The domestic palm oil price continued to rise [1][8]. - **Market Strategy**: Be cautious when chasing long positions. Considering the supply season in Southeast Asia and the large inverted spread between soybean oil and palm oil, it is difficult to force a short - squeeze [1]. Cotton - **Supply and Demand**: In the US, the soil moisture in cotton - growing areas is still good, and the excellent - good rate is increasing. In China, the actual sown area of cotton has increased, and the inventory of domestic commercial cotton has decreased. However, the downstream textile enterprises' orders are weakening, and the finished product inventory is increasing [1][13][14]. - **Price Movement**: The main contract CF2509 closed at 14225 yuan/ton, up 0.28%. The ICE cotton price rose 0.23% to 68.26 cents/pound, and the domestic spot price fell 0.30% to 15549 yuan/ton [11][13]. - **Market Strategy**: Be cautious about shorting. Although the short - term bullish sentiment of funds is strong, the conditions for a short - squeeze are not complete. Be vigilant against the negative feedback from weakening downstream demand [1]. Red Dates - **Supply and Demand**: The growth of new - season jujube trees is good, and the expected production reduction is gradually being disproven. The old - crop inventory is at a historical high, and the inventory reduction is slow. The demand is weak in the off - season [1][17]. - **Price Movement**: The main contract CJ2601 closed at 10490 yuan/ton, up 0.77% [16][17]. - **Market Strategy**: Be cautious about shorting. The upside pressure on the price is large, but the downside space is limited due to the relatively low price level [1]. Hogs - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the slow - down in slaughter rhythm and farmers' reluctance to sell support the price. In the medium - term, the number of piglets born from January to May 2025 increased, indicating potential growth in slaughter volume in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the industry still has over - capacity [1][19]. - **Price Movement**: The main contract Lh2509 closed at 14380 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The domestic spot price remained stable at 14810 yuan/ton [18][19]. - **Market Strategy**: Be cautiously bullish. The 09 contract may face a slight correction risk, while the 01 contract is relatively strong. Consider going long at low prices or using a cross - year reverse spread strategy [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1][3][4] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [1][6][7] - L: Cautiously bullish [1][9][11] - PP: Cautiously bullish [1][13][14] - PVC: Cautiously bullish [1][16][17] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1][19][20] - PTA/PR: Cautiously bullish [1][22][23] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bullish [1][25][26] - Glass: Cautiously bullish [2][28][30] - Soda ash: Bullish [2][31][32] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bullish [2][33][34] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2][36] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bullish [2] Core Views - Crude oil: The peak - season market is in the second half, and oil prices are oscillating weakly. OPEC+ is gradually increasing production, leading to rising supply - surplus pressure and significant downward pressure on oil prices [1][3][4] - LPG: The cost side is weak, but the high basis provides support for LPG prices [1][6][7] - L: Plastic has a 20% coal - to - plastic ratio, is less affected by anti - involution, and rebounds following market sentiment in the short term [1][9][11] - PP: With a 19% coal - to - plastic ratio, it rebounds following market sentiment, and export is expected to maintain high - speed growth [1][13][14] - PVC: Capacity reduction boosts sentiment and cost, providing short - term support, but the weak fundamentals limit the rebound space [1][16][17] - PX: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and there are macro - policy bullish factors [1][19][20] - PTA/PR: There may be increased supply pressure in the future, but short - term macro - policies bring bullish factors [1][22][23] - Ethylene glycol: The fundamentals are slightly loose, but macro - policies provide bullish support [1][25][26] - Glass: The market is boosted by policy expectations, and the price center moves up [2][28][30] - Soda ash: Affected by policy expectations, the price rises, but the high - supply and high - inventory situation persists [2][31][32] - Caustic soda: Supply is approaching saturation, but demand is improving, and the price is supported by the market sentiment [2][33][34] - Methanol: Supply - demand conditions are improving, and it is oscillating strongly under the influence of macro - policies [2][36] - Urea: Supply is increasing, but demand and macro - policies provide support [2] - Asphalt: Cost - side oil prices are under long - term pressure, and the market is bearish [2] - Propylene: The low absolute price provides support, and the market sentiment is improving [2] Summary by Variety Crude oil - **Market review**: Overnight international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 0.97%, Brent dropped 0.72%, and SC dropped 1.69% [3] - **Basic logic**: The oil market is in a situation of weak expectation and strong reality. OPEC's production increase is gradually releasing pressure, and the oil - price center may decline. EU sanctions on Russia and changes in Norwegian production affect supply. Chinese imports and IEA forecasts impact demand. EIA data shows inventory changes [4] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the long - term, supply is in surplus, and the price range is expected to be 60 - 70 dollars/barrel. In the short - term, the trend is oscillating weakly. Recommend light - position shorting and buying call options. SC focuses on [495 - 510] [5] LPG - **Market review**: On July 22, the PG main contract closed at 3981 yuan/ton, down 0.99% [6] - **Basic logic**: As OPEC+ increases production, the cost side is weak. LPG's fundamentals are mixed, with a high basis providing support. PDH and other indicators show changes in supply and demand, and inventory is increasing [7] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the long - term, the upstream crude - oil supply is in surplus, and LPG is over - valued. In the short - term, there is support below. Recommend closing previous short positions. PG focuses on [3950 - 4050] [8] L - **Market review**: Short - term prices are affected by cost, supply, and demand. The cost support is weakening, supply pressure is increasing, and demand is in the off - season [9][10] - **Basic logic**: Plastic has a 20% coal - to - plastic ratio, is less affected by anti - involution. The standard - product import window is closed. It rebounds following market sentiment, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking [11] - **Strategy recommendation**: Recommend short - term dip - buying. L focuses on [7250 - 7450] [11][12] PP - **Market review**: The market is affected by maintenance, demand, and cost. Currently, the market is weak, and attention should be paid to cost and supply [13] - **Basic logic**: With a 19% coal - to - plastic ratio, it rebounds following market sentiment. Inventory is being depleted, supply pressure is relieved, and exports are expected to grow [14] - **Strategy recommendation**: Recommend short - term dip - buying. PP focuses on [7100 - 7250] [14][15] PVC - **Market review**: The market is driven by policies, with weak fundamentals but a strong - oscillating price due to policy expectations [16] - **Basic logic**: Capacity reduction supports the price, but the weak fundamentals limit the rebound. Inventory is increasing, and attention should be paid to Indian anti - dumping duties and warehouse - receipt registration [17] - **Strategy recommendation**: Recommend short - term dip - buying. V focuses on [5100 - 5400] [17][18] PX - **Market review**: On July 18, the spot price in East China was 7120 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6810 yuan/ton [19] - **Basic logic**: Supply - side device changes are small, and demand is stable. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and inventory is high but decreasing. PXN is not low, and there are macro - policy bullish factors [20] - **Strategy recommendation**: PX focuses on [6820, 6940] [21] PTA - **Market review**: On July 18, the East - China spot price was 4782 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4733 yuan/ton [22] - **Basic logic**: Supply - side device changes are small, and new device production may increase pressure. Demand is weak, but macro - policies bring bullish factors. TA's fundamentals are expected to be looser, but there are short - term bullish opportunities [23] - **Strategy recommendation**: TA focuses on [4760, 4850] [24] Ethylene glycol - **Market review**: On July 18, the East - China spot price was 4429 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4376 yuan/ton [25] - **Basic logic**: Domestic and overseas device changes are small, and imports are low. Demand is in the off - season but shows signs of stopping decline. The basis is strong, and low inventory provides support. There are macro - policy bullish factors [26] - **Strategy recommendation**: EG focuses on [4420, 4480] [27] Glass - **Market review**: Spot - market quotes increased, and the futures price rose significantly, with an enlarged premium [29] - **Basic logic**: Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the market sentiment is strong. Coal prices drive up cost expectations. Glass fundamentals improve, with increased production and decreased inventory, boosting market confidence [30] - **Strategy recommendation**: FG focuses on [1220, 1260] [30] Soda ash - **Market review**: The heavy - alkali spot price increased, and the futures price rose significantly, with a narrowing basis and increasing warehouse receipts [31] - **Basic logic**: Affected by policy expectations, the glass and coal markets are strong, boosting the soda - ash futures price. However, alkali - factory inventory is at a record high, and supply is increasing [32] - **Strategy recommendation**: No specific strategy other than the price range [31][32] Caustic soda - **Market review**: The liquid - caustic soda spot price decreased, and the futures price rose, with a weakening basis [33] - **Basic logic**: Supply is approaching saturation, with high - level production and new - capacity expectations. Demand from alumina is improving, but non - aluminum demand is weak [34] - **Strategy recommendation**: No specific strategy other than the price range [33][34] Methanol - **Market review**: On July 18, the East - China spot price was 2385 yuan/ton, and the MA09 contract closed at 2365 yuan/ton [36] - **Basic logic**: Domestic device maintenance reduces supply, while overseas devices recover. Demand is good, and inventory is increasing but still low. Affected by macro - policies, it oscillates strongly [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Recommend dip - buying. MA focuses on [2410 - 2460] [2] Urea - **Basic logic**: Supply is increasing as maintenance devices resume production. Demand from industry is improving, and exports are growing. Coal prices are stable, providing cost support [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Recommend light - position buying. UR focuses on [1790 - 1820] [2] Asphalt - **Basic logic**: Cost - side oil prices are under long - term pressure, and supply is sufficient. Supply and demand are both increasing, and inventory is accumulating. The cracking spread is high, and the valuation is high [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Recommend light - position shorting. BU focuses on [3580 - 3680] [2] Propylene - **Basic logic**: The absolute price is low, providing support. The market sentiment is improving [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Unilateral trading is cautiously bullish. For arbitrage, consider shorting the 1 - 2 month spread or shorting the PP processing fee. Propylene focuses on [6500 - 6700] [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [1] - L: Cautiously bullish [1] - PP: Cautiously bullish [1] - PVC: Cautiously bullish [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish [1] - Glass: Bullish [2] - Soda ash: Bullish [2] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bullish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Bullish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bullish [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: The peak - season market is in the second half, and oil prices are oscillating weakly due to EU sanctions on Russia and OPEC+ expansion [1][3][4] - LPG: With stable cost, rising downstream开工率, it is short - term bullish, and previous short positions can take profit [1][6][7] - L: It is mainly following market sentiment for a short - term rebound, affected by anti - involution to a limited extent [1][10][11] - PP: The spot price has turned from falling to rising, with reduced inventory pressure and expected high export growth [1][13][14] - PVC: Driven by policy expectations and rising coal prices, it is short - term bullish despite weak fundamentals [1][17][18] - PX: Supply - demand is in tight balance, with high inventory and macro - policy support, suggesting holding long positions [1][20][21] - PTA/PR: Supply pressure is expected to increase, but short - term bullish due to anti - involution policies [1][23][24] - Ethylene glycol: Supply and demand are slightly loose, but with macro - policy support, it is recommended to go long at low levels [1][26][27] - Glass: Policy expectations boost the market, with inventory de - stocking and rising prices [2][29][31] - Soda ash: Despite high supply and inventory, it is following market sentiment and recommended to go long on pullbacks [2][32][33] - Caustic soda: Supply is approaching saturation, but demand from alumina is improving, and the market is bullish [2][34][35] - Methanol: Supply - demand has improved, and it is oscillating strongly due to macro - policies [2][36] - Urea: Supply is increasing, but with policy support and export expectations, it is recommended to go long lightly [2] - Asphalt: Cost is under pressure in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to go short lightly [2] - Propylene: Low valuation provides support, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [2] 3. Summaries by Variety Crude oil - Market situation: International oil prices fell overnight, with WTI down 0.27%, Brent down 0.35%, and SC up 1.63%. The current weak - expectation and strong - reality situation has support at the bottom, but OPEC+ expansion brings downward pressure [3][4] - Strategy: Lightly short and buy call options for protection, with SC in the range of [500 - 515] [1][5] LPG - Market situation: On July 20, the PG main contract closed at 4068 yuan/ton, up 0.15%. The cost is stable, downstream PDH开工率 is rising, and port inventory is accumulating [6][7] - Strategy: Take profit on previous short positions, with PG in the range of [3950 - 4050] [1][8] L - Market situation: The absolute price has low - valuation support, and it follows market sentiment for a short - term rebound. Social inventory has accumulated for 3 weeks, but the off - season for agricultural films is approaching an end [10][11] - Strategy: Try to go long on short - term pullbacks, with L in the range of [7200 - 7400] [1][12] PP - Market situation: The spot price has rebounded, with inventory de - stocking and increased unexpected maintenance. 1 - 6 months' exports increased by 21% year - on - year [13][14] - Strategy: Try to go long on short - term pullbacks, with PP in the range of [7000 - 7200] [1][15] PVC - Market situation: Driven by policy expectations and rising coal prices, the market is bullish in the short term, but inventory is accumulating, and the fundamental weakness limits the rebound space [17][18] - Strategy: Try to go long on short - term pullbacks, with V in the range of [5100 - 5300] [1][19] PX - Market situation: Supply - demand is in tight balance, inventory is high, and macro - policies are favorable. The PXN spread is not low, and the basis is narrowing [20][21] - Strategy: Hold existing long positions and consider adding long positions on pullbacks, with PX in the range of [6820 - 6910] [1][22] PTA/PR - Market situation: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. However, it is short - term bullish due to anti - involution policies [23][24] - Strategy: Add long positions on pullbacks, with TA in the range of [4740 - 4810] [1][25] Ethylene glycol - Market situation: Supply and demand are slightly loose, but low inventory and macro - policies support the price. Import and arrival are low [26][27] - Strategy: Try to go long at low levels, with EG in the range of [4405 - 4450] [1][28] Glass - Market situation: Policy expectations boost the market, inventory has been de - stocking for 4 weeks, and the spot price has increased [29][31] - Strategy: Go long based on the 5 - day moving average, with FG in the range of [1160 - 1200] [2][31] Soda ash - Market situation: High supply and inventory, but following market sentiment. The inventory has reached a new high, and the supply - demand surplus remains [32][33] - Strategy: Go long on pullbacks, with SA in the range of [1290 - 1350] [2] Caustic soda - Market situation: Supply is approaching saturation, but demand from alumina is improving, and the market is bullish [34][35] - Strategy: Go long cautiously based on the 10 - day moving average, with SH in the range of [2560 - 2620] [2] Methanol - Market situation: Supply - demand has improved, and it is oscillating strongly due to macro - policies [36] - Strategy: Try to go long on pullbacks, with MA in the range of [2385 - 2435] [2] Urea - Market situation: Supply is increasing, but with policy support and export expectations [2] - Strategy: Try to go long lightly, with UR in the range of [1800 - 1835] [2] Asphalt - Market situation: Cost is under pressure in the medium - long term, and supply and demand are both increasing, but inventory is accumulating [2] - Strategy: Go short lightly, with BU in the range of [3580 - 3680] [2] Propylene - Market situation: Low valuation provides support, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [2] - Strategy: Go long unilaterally at low levels and consider shorting the 1 - 2 month spread or PP processing fees, with a focus on the range of [6250 - 6600] [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Strong oscillation, strategic allocation value is high [1] - Silver: Bullish [1] - Copper: Bullish [1] - Zinc: Cautiously bullish in the short - term, bearish in the long - term [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Rebound [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound [1] - Industrial silicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Global order reshaping and the trend of fiscal and monetary double - easing remain unchanged, and gold is in a long - term bull market. Multiple factors support gold, and the long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged. Silver has support at 9200, and a bullish approach should be taken [3][4] - Macro - sentiment is positive, and it is recommended to hold existing copper long positions. In the long - term, the tightness of global copper mines is difficult to ease, and there is confidence in the long - term rise of copper [5][6] - The zinc supply is abundant, which limits the upside space. It is recommended to hold existing zinc long positions cautiously in the short - term and wait for opportunities to short at high prices in the long - term [7][8] - The cost price of aluminum has increased, and the aluminum price has rebounded again. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for Shanghai aluminum and pay attention to the changes in aluminum ingot inventory [9][10] - There is an expectation of improvement in the downstream of nickel, and the nickel price has rebounded again. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for nickel and stainless steel and pay attention to inventory changes [11][12] - There are continuous disturbances on the supply side of lithium carbonate, and it is operating at a high level. It is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term [13][14] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: US Treasury Secretary Yellen made dovish remarks, the US - EU trade negotiation was not going smoothly, the US - Japan trade negotiation deadline was approaching, and the Japanese political situation was uncertain. US bond yields fell for 4 consecutive days, silver rose significantly, and gold oscillated strongly [2][3] - **Basic Logic**: Dovish remarks from the US Treasury Secretary, tense US - EU trade negotiations, potential inflation pressure in Japan and political uncertainty, and large tariff uncertainties. The long - term bullish trend of gold remains due to global order reshaping and fiscal - monetary double - easing [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has strong support around 770 - 775, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. Silver has support at 9200, and a bullish approach should be taken [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper rebounded strongly and tested the 80,000 pressure level [5] - **Industrial Logic**: The tight pattern of copper concentrates persists. The production of electrolytic copper has increased significantly. Domestic social inventory has decreased counter - seasonally and is at a historical low. Downstream开工率 has increased, and the demand from power and automotive industries has maintained resilience [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold existing copper long positions. In the long - term, the tightness of global copper mines is difficult to ease, and there is confidence in the long - term rise of copper. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [78500, 80500], and for LME copper is [9700, 9900] USD/ton [6] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc oscillated and closed with a doji, with a stalemate between bulls and bears [7] - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates is abundant. New domestic smelting capacity has been released intensively. The processing fee of zinc concentrates has continued to rise, and smelters' enthusiasm for production has increased. However, it is the high - temperature and consumption off - season, and downstream enterprises are hesitant to buy at high prices [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold existing zinc long positions cautiously, not to chase the rise blindly. Wait for a pull - back to enter the market. In the long - term, the supply of zinc will increase while the demand will decrease, and wait patiently for opportunities to short at high prices. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [22500, 23500], and for LME zinc is [2680, 2880] USD/ton [8] Aluminum - **Market Review**: The aluminum price rebounded again, and alumina also showed a rebound trend [9] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the market sentiment in China is positive, the full - cost of the industry has increased, the inventory has increased slightly, and the downstream开工率 has decreased in the off - season. For alumina, there are disturbances in Guinea's bauxite supply, and the supply of alumina spot is relatively tight in the short - term, but the overall supply - demand structure is expected to remain loose [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to mainly wait and see for Shanghai aluminum and pay attention to the changes in aluminum ingot inventory. The main operating range is [20200 - 21000]. Alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [10] Nickel - **Market Review**: The nickel price rebounded again, and stainless steel also showed a rebound trend [11] - **Industrial Logic**: For nickel, there is uncertainty in the overseas environment, and the price of Philippine nickel ore may continue to weaken. The improvement of the domestic nickel supply - demand situation is limited, and the inventory has accumulated again. For stainless steel, the production reduction intensity has weakened, and the inventory pressure has reappeared in the off - season [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to mainly wait and see for nickel and stainless steel and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 123700] [12] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 increased its positions slightly and reached a new high in nearly a month [13] - **Industrial Logic**: In the spot market, lithium salt factories are more willing to sell scattered orders, and futures - cash merchants are actively buying. The basis has weakened. The fundamentals have not improved significantly in the short - term, and the total inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks. There are continuous disturbances on the supply side, and the futures market has priced in the improvement of the supply - demand contradiction in advance [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term, with a range of [70000 - 72000] [14]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Bullish [3] - Iron Ore: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish [9] - Coke: Bullish [10] - Coking Coal: Bullish [14] - Ferroalloys: Bullish [18] Core Views - The steel market is driven by factors such as government policies on capacity reduction and raw material price increases, and is expected to continue its strong performance. The iron ore market has seen an increase in iron - making water production and supply, but due to rapid price increases, short - term observation is recommended, and medium - term short positions can be considered. The coke market has a rising expectation of price hikes and a warm market atmosphere. The coking coal market has improved supply and demand conditions and positive market sentiment. The ferroalloy market is mainly driven by market sentiment, with medium - term supply expected to return to a loose state [4][8][12][16][20]. Summary by Variety Steel 1. Rebar - **View**: Driven by government capacity - reduction policies and raw material price increases, although it is in the off - season with declining production and demand and rising inventory, it is expected to run strongly due to increased iron - making water production and positive market sentiment. Price range: [3200, 3250] [1][4][5] - **Price Data**: Futures prices for contracts 01, 05, and 10 are 3277, 3293, and 3224 respectively, with increases of 86, 86, and 77. Spot prices in different regions range from 3060 to 3450, with price increases of 30 - 80 [2] 2. Hot - Rolled Coil - **View**: The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is expected to run strongly in the short term due to factors such as macro - policies and raw material price increases. Price range: [3370, 3420] [1][4][5] - **Price Data**: Futures prices for contracts 01, 05, and 10 are 3410, 3413, and 3394 respectively, with increases of 90, 86, and 84. Spot prices in different regions range from 3340 to 3520, with price increases of 70 - 90 [2] Iron Ore - **View**: The production of iron - making water has increased significantly, and supply has also increased. The market has strengthened due to strong steel - mill profits, but rapid price increases have compressed profit margins, so short - term observation is recommended, and medium - term short positions can be considered. Price range: [790, 830] [1][8][9] - **Price Data**: Futures prices for contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 777, 755, and 809 respectively, with increases of 24. Spot prices of different iron ore powders range from 675 to 815, with price increases of 5 - 25 [6] Coke - **View**: After the first round of spot price hikes, there is an expectation of further hikes. Market sentiment is positive due to factors such as production - restriction news and steel - mill restocking, and it is expected to run strongly. Price range: [1600, 1640] [1][12][13] - **Price Data**: Futures prices for contracts 1, 5, and 9 are 1654, 1699, and 1603 respectively, with increases of 85 - 101. Spot prices in different regions range from 1030 to 1340, with some prices remaining unchanged and some increasing by 70 [11] Coking Coal - **View**: Domestic production has recovered, supply is expected to increase, upstream inventory has decreased, and market sentiment has improved. Driven by downstream restocking, it is expected to run strongly in the short term. Price range: [1000, 1040] [1][16][17] - **Price Data**: Futures prices for contracts 1, 5, and 9 are 1056, 1074.5, and 1006 respectively, with increases of 80 - 83.5. Spot prices in different regions range from 1008 to 1390, with price increases of 50 - 58 [15] Ferroalloys 1. Manganese Silicon - **View**: The supply is increasing while the demand is decreasing. In the short term, it is mainly driven by market sentiment, and in the medium term, the price may face pressure. Attention should be paid to the 6000 yuan/ton mark. Price range: [5820, 6010] [1][20][21] - **Price Data**: Futures prices for contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 5964, 5988, and 5914 respectively, with increases of 110 - 138. Spot prices in different regions range from 5650 to 5700, with price increases of 30 - 50 [19] 2. Ferrosilicon - **View**: The supply is increasing while the demand is decreasing. There is pressure from delivery inventory. In the short term, it is driven by market sentiment, and in the medium term, the price may face pressure. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of inter - month reverse arbitrage. Price range: [5570, 5770] [1][20][21] - **Price Data**: Futures prices for contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 5746, 5792, and 5668 respectively, with increases of 160 - 180. Spot prices in different regions range from 5330 to 5400, with price increases of 50 [19]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 按照 CPC 月度展望来看，7 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 面丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段，油厂催提。饲 | | | | 料企业库存开始走高于去年同期，进一步补库积极性预计有所减缓。美国总统特朗 | | | | 普宣布与印度尼西亚达成农业贸易协议，该国承诺将采购 45 亿美元的美国农产品。 | | 豆粕 | 大区间震荡 | 印尼是美国大豆的第五大进口国，该消息提振美豆价格上涨。昨日国内豆粕价格延 | | | | 续收涨行情。短线反弹对待,前高附近及以上继续追多需注意做好仓位及风控管理。 | | | | 短期走势，在基本面偏弱及中美贸易关税成本支撑多空双重作用下，豆粕以大区间 | | | | 行情对待。主力【3040，3090】 | | | | 全球菜籽产量同比恢复，但加籽地区土壤墒情偏干，关注后续降雨情况。国内市场， | | | | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比整体去库，商业库存去库，但同比依然维持较高水平。 | | | | 7 月至 9 月菜籽进口同比大幅 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 旺季行情进入下半程，油价震荡偏弱。欧盟推出新一轮对俄罗斯制裁措施， 对俄原油制裁上限降至 50 美元/桶左右；油价进入下半程，随着 OPEC+ | | 原油 | 反弹偏空 | 逐渐扩产，油价供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大，重点关注供 | | | | 给端 OPEC 实际增产量与美国产量。策略：轻仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。 | | | | SC【505-520】 | | | | 成本端企稳，下游开工率提高，短线偏震荡，前期空单可止盈。成本端油 | | LPG | 空单止盈 | 价企稳，美国丙烷处于消费淡季，供给相对充足；下游燃烧需求处于淡季， | | | | 化工需求回升，PDH 开工率上升；供给和库存中性偏空，国内商品量小幅 | | | | 下降，港口库存累库。策略：短线震荡，空单可止盈。PG【4050-4150】 | | | | 市场情绪好转，绝对价格低估值支撑。基本面格局偏弱，华北标品现货价 格持续下跌，社会库存连续 3 周累库，近期装置重启增加，预计本周产 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 按照 | CPC 月度展望来看，7 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 面丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段，油厂催提。饲 | | | | 料企业库存开始走高于去年同期，进一步补库积极性预计有所减缓。美国总统特朗 | | | | 普宣布与印度尼西亚达成农业贸易协议，该国承诺将采购 45 亿美元的美国农产品。 | | 豆粕 | 大区间震荡 | 印尼是美国大豆的第五大进口国，该消息提振美豆价格上涨。昨日国内豆粕价格跟 | | | | 随大幅上涨。短线反弹对待,前高附近及以上继续追多需注意做好仓位及风控管理。 | | | | 短期走势，在基本面偏弱及中美贸易关税成本支撑多空双重作用下，豆粕以大区间 | | | | 行情对待。主力【3020，3090】 | | | | 全球菜籽产量同比恢复，但加籽地区土壤墒情偏干，关注后续降雨情况。国内市场， | | | | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比整体去库，商业库存去库，但同比依然维持较高水平。 | | | 7 | 月至 9 月菜籽进口同比大幅 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil): Bullish [3][5] - Iron ore: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [8][9] - Coke: Bullish [10][13] - Coking coal: Bullish [14][17] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Sideways [18][21] Core Views of the Report - Multiple factors drive steel prices to continue rising, with rebar showing off-season characteristics and hot-rolled coil having a relatively stable fundamentals [4] - Iron ore prices are strong due to increased iron production, but rapid price increases compress profit margins, so chasing the rise is not advisable [8] - After the first round of coke price increases, there are expectations for further increases, and the market sentiment is positive [12] - Coking coal production is increasing, inventory is decreasing, and the market sentiment is improving, with downstream restocking boosting the market [16] - The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, and prices may face pressure in the medium term [20][21] Summary by Variety Steel - **Rebar** - **View**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced capacity reduction in the steel industry, and the sharp rise in raw materials drives up steel prices. Rebar production and apparent demand continue to decline month-on-month, and total inventory rises slightly, showing off-season characteristics [4] - **Operation**: Iron production increases significantly, driving up the expected demand for furnace materials. The market sentiment is strong, and it may continue to run strongly, with a price range of [3170, 3220] [1] - **Hot-rolled coil** - **View**: Production, apparent demand, and inventory changes are small, and the fundamentals are relatively stable with limited contradictions [4] - **Operation**: The market trades around factors such as macro policies, anti-involution, and industry production restriction policies. The sharp rise in raw materials also promotes the strong performance of steel, and it may maintain a strong operation in the short term, with a price range of [3350, 3400] [1] Iron Ore - **View**: Iron production increases significantly, supply and arrivals both increase, and inventories at ports and steel mills accumulate. Steel mills have good profits and strong production enthusiasm, driving up the price of iron ore. However, the rapid price increase compresses the profit margin on the futures market [8] - **Operation**: Short-term observation is recommended, and medium-term short positions can be considered, with a price range of [780, 820] [1][9] Coke - **View**: After the first round of price increases, there are expectations for further increases. Market rumors of production restrictions affect sentiment, and steel mill restocking makes the market more positive [12] - **Operation**: It may maintain a strong operation, with a price range of [1520, 1570] [1][13] Coking Coal - **View**: Domestic coking coal production has rebounded recently, approaching the level of the same period last year. Some coal mines have resumed production in July, and supply is expected to increase. Upstream inventory has decreased month-on-month, spot transactions have improved, and market sentiment has generally improved. Downstream restocking boosts the market [16] - **Operation**: It may continue to run strongly in the short term, with a price range of [930, 970] [1][17] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Silicomanganese** - **View**: The fundamentals show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. Although iron production is high, the significant month-on-month decline in rebar production drags down the demand for silicomanganese. The slight increase in raw material prices strongly supports the cost [20] - **Operation**: In the short term, the market is mainly driven by sentiment, and the increase is relatively limited compared to other black commodities. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and prices may face pressure. Attention should be paid to the integer mark of 6000 yuan/ton, with a price range of [5710, 5900] [1][21] - **Ferrosilicon** - **View**: The fundamentals also show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. The factory inventory pressure has been released, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period, and there is obvious near-term warehouse receipt pressure. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of inter-month reverse arbitrage [20] - **Operation**: In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and prices may still face pressure, with a price range of [5410, 5605] [1][21]