| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹表需受节日影响环比下降，产量略降，库存上升。整体来看，建筑钢材下游需求仍 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 显疲弱，房地产及基建表现继续形成拖累，供需驱动力量有限，，整体维持区间偏弱运 行。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷表需受节日影响环比回落，产量小幅下降，库存上升，总体符合季节性表现。钢材 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 整体需求仍然偏弱，库存水平偏高，供需层面缺少持续向上驱动，短期区间偏弱运行。 | | 铁矿石 | 多单离场 | 基本面偏中性。下游成材端体现假期特征，累库明显，观察节后库存消化速度。宏观层 | | ★ | | 面关税扰动再袭，避险情绪升温，盘面恐偏弱运行。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭现货第二轮提涨延迟，焦钢博弈明显。焦企利润一般，现货生产相对稳定。铁水产 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 量维持高位运行，原料需求较稳定。焦炭本身供需相对平衡，跟随焦煤区间运行。 | | 焦煤 | | 煤矿整体产量有回升预期，进口预计维持高位，供应边际将继续改善。铁水产量绝对水 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 平较高， ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹表需受节日影响环比下降，产量略降，库存上升。整体来看，建筑钢材下游需求仍 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 显疲弱，房地产及基建表现继续形成拖累，供需驱动力量有限，原料端短线偏强，整体 维持区间运行。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看多 | 热卷表需受节日影响环比回落，产量小幅下降，库存上升，总体符合季节性表现。钢材 | | ★ | | 整体需求仍然偏弱，供需层面缺少持续向上驱动，或维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | | 国庆期间铁水产量微降，维持高位。钢厂消耗库存为主，节后部分钢厂有补库需求。基 | | ★ | 多单持有 | 本面偏中性。下游成材端体现假期特征，累库明显，观察节后库存消化速度。宏观层面 | | | | "反内卷"与月底重要会议预期偏强，提振市场情绪。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭现货第一轮提涨已落地，焦钢博弈明显。焦企利润一般，现货生产相对稳定。铁水 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 产量维持高位运行，原料需求较稳定。焦炭本身供需相对平衡，跟随焦煤区间运行。 | | 焦煤 | | 煤矿整体产量处于回升状态 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [3] - Ethylene glycol (MEG): Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [3] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [5] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [5] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [5] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [5] 2. Report's Core Views - The core driver of the energy and chemical industry is the supply - demand imbalance, with supply often exceeding demand in the off - season, leading to downward pressure on prices. For most products, there are short - term trading opportunities based on cost fluctuations, and long - term trends are affected by factors such as new capacity, inventory, and policy [1][7][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude oil - **Market performance**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 0.47%, Brent up 1.22%, and SC with no quote due to the holiday [6]. - **Basic logic**: On October 5th, OPEC+ planned to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The core driver is off - season supply surplus, and oil prices are likely to be pressured to around $60 [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to increase, while EIA forecasts show global oil supply will exceed demand in 2025 - 2026. US commercial crude oil inventory rose in the week ending October 3rd [8]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions and buy call options. Focus on the range of [470 - 485] for SC [9]. LPG - **Market performance**: On October 9th, the PG main contract closed at 4,078 yuan/ton, down 5.05% [11]. - **Basic logic**: The cost side is pressured by the decline in oil prices and the reduction of Saudi CP contract prices. Supply is relatively sufficient, and demand in some sectors has decreased [12]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4150 - 4250] for PG [13]. L - **Market performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,077 yuan/ton, down 1.1% [16]. - **Basic logic**: It follows cost fluctuations, with weakening cost support. After the holiday, inventory increased, and the supply - demand pattern is strong on both sides but with limited upward drive [18]. - **Strategy**: It runs weakly in the short term. Focus on the lower support level and wait for dips to test long positions. Focus on the range of [7000 - 7150] [18]. PP - **Market performance**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,745 yuan/ton, down 1.6% [21]. - **Basic logic**: Cost factors such as crude oil and propane are weak. After - holiday inventory increased, and the supply - demand pattern is loose with high de - stocking pressure [23]. - **Strategy**: The industry can hedge at high prices. Focus on the lower support level and wait for dips to test long positions. Focus on the range of [6700 - 6800] [23]. PVC - **Market performance**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,839 yuan/ton, down 1.4% [25]. - **Basic logic**: The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, and inventory has increased significantly after the holiday. The supply - demand pattern is loose, but the decline in spot prices is limited due to low valuation [27]. - **Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand pattern remains loose. Focus on the lower support level and conduct range operations. Focus on the range of [4700 - 4850] [27]. PX - **Market performance**: On September 30th, the PX spot price was 6,624 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton [30]. - **Basic logic**: Supply has slightly increased, while demand is expected to weaken due to PTA maintenance. Macro factors such as high US crude oil inventory and OPEC+ production increase put pressure on oil prices, and PX is expected to be weak [31]. - **Strategy**: Partially close short positions. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds and sell call options. Focus on the range of [6520 - 6630] for PX511 [32]. PTA - **Market performance**: On September 30th, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,545 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton [34]. - **Basic logic**: Supply pressure is expected to ease due to increased maintenance, and demand has improved recently. However, the cost side is pressured by oil prices, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [34]. - **Strategy**: Gradually close short positions. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4530 - 4610] for TA01 [35]. MEG - **Market performance**: On September 30th, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,275 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [37]. - **Basic logic**: Domestic plants have slightly increased production, and overseas plants have changed little. Terminal demand has improved, but new capacity and supply recovery may lead to inventory accumulation in the future. It follows cost fluctuations and is expected to be weak [38]. - **Strategy**: Gradually close short positions. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4125 - 4185] for EG01 [39]. Methanol - **Market performance**: On September 30th, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,290 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic logic**: Supply pressure remains high as maintenance plants resume production. Demand has improved, especially in the MTO sector. Social inventory is decreasing, and cost support is stabilizing [43]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 01 contract. Focus on the range of [2280 - 2320] for MA01 [45]. Urea - **Market performance**: On September 30th, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton [47]. - **Basic logic**: Supply is relatively loose as plants resume production. Domestic demand is weak, but fertilizer exports are relatively good. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists [48]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously. Look for opportunities to go long on dips in the long term [3]. Natural gas - **Market performance**: As of October 3rd, the number of US natural gas rigs increased by 1 to 118 [5]. - **Basic logic**: Supply is relatively sufficient, but the increase in combustion demand with the cooling weather and winter gas storage provide some support for gas prices [5]. - **Strategy**: Cautiously bearish [5]. Asphalt - **Market performance**: Not specifically mentioned in the given text. - **Basic logic**: The cost side is pressured by the increase in crude oil supply surplus, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. Valuation is high [5]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [5]. Glass - **Market performance**: Some regional spot prices have risen, and factory inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks [5]. - **Basic logic**: Supply is under pressure as daily melting volume remains high, and demand from the real - estate sector is weak. Focus on the downstream restocking during the peak season [5]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the alkali - glass spread in the short term and be bearish on rebounds in the long term [5]. Soda ash - **Market performance**: Spot prices have risen slightly, and the basis has strengthened [5]. - **Basic logic**: Supply is expected to be loose as summer maintenance ends and plants resume production. Demand is mostly for rigid needs, and enterprise inventory has decreased for five consecutive weeks [5]. - **Strategy**: The industry can hedge at high prices and be bearish on rebounds in the long term [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Short - term Volatility**: Soybean meal, Rapeseed meal [1] - **Short - term Bullish**: Palm oil, Soybean oil [1] - **Bullish**: Rapeseed oil [1] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Cotton, Red dates, Live pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term volatility is expected due to the intersection of long and short factors such as the harvest of US soybeans, Sino - US trade negotiations, and dry weather in Brazilian soybean planting. The adjustment space is limited before the Sino - US negotiations start [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is expected to show short - term volatility, following the trend of soybean meal. Trade policies and high inventory lead to the intersection of long and short factors. The Sino - Canadian trade negotiation still takes time, and the positive impact is limited [1][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bullish. The Indonesian government's bio - fuel policies are expected to increase future demand, but the absence of the Southeast Asian减产 season may limit the continuous upward space [1][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term bullish, mainly following the palm oil market. The US government shutdown and other factors have led to an optimistic sentiment in the US soybean market [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: It is expected to run strongly. Low oil mill operating rates, market sentiment of hoarding and price - holding, and the consumption peak season, along with the hype of palm oil's bio - fuel concept, support its bullish trend [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautiously bearish. The supply of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries is increasing, and the demand has not improved significantly. In the domestic market, new cotton harvesting is progressing, and the demand outlook is weak [1][10][11]. - **Red Dates**: Cautiously bearish. Considering the expected production and inventory, there is still pressure after the new fruits are listed. Although the concern about quality is gradually alleviated, there may be significant price fluctuations due to weather speculation [1][15]. - **Live Pigs**: Cautiously bearish. The supply pressure is strong due to the active slaughter of large farms and increased slaughter by retail farmers. The terminal demand is expected to decline after the double - festival stocking [1][17]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Inventory and Consumption**: As of September 26, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 938500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40200 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 719910 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25250 tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 118920 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6080 tons [3]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract was 2939 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price was 3025.14 yuan/ton. The basis of different contracts and cross - variety spreads showed certain changes [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory and Production**: As of September 26, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 2600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 1500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 250 tons [6]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract was 2435 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price was 2593.16 yuan/ton. The basis and cross - variety spreads changed [5]. Palm Oil - **Inventory and Production**: As of September 26, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 552200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32900 tons. The Malaysian palm oil production in September decreased by 2.35% compared with the previous month [8]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract was 9570 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 9555 yuan/ton. The cross - period and cross - variety spreads showed changes [7]. Cotton - **Supply and Demand**: Internationally, the supply pressure of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries is increasing, and the export demand has not improved significantly. Domestically, new cotton harvesting is ongoing, and the demand is weak [10][11]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures prices of different contracts showed small increases, and the basis and cross - period spreads changed. The cotton profit of textile enterprises decreased, and the开机 rates of spinning mills and weaving factories were relatively stable [9]. Red Dates - **Production and Inventory**: The estimated new - season production is 560000 - 620000 tons, a decrease compared with previous years. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9167 tons, a decrease of 36 tons compared with the previous period [15]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures prices of different contracts increased slightly, and the basis and cross - period spreads changed. The arrival volume in Guangdong increased [13]. Live Pigs - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the supply pressure is strong due to the large - scale enterprises'出栏 pressure and the increase in the number of slaughtered pigs. The terminal demand is expected to decline after the double - festival stocking [17]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures prices of different contracts decreased, and the basis, cross - period spreads, and other indicators changed. The national sample enterprises'生猪存栏 and出栏 increased slightly [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Long - term holding (★★) [1] - Silver: Callback to go long (★★) [1] - Copper: Long - term holding (★★) [1] - Zinc: Rebound (★), with a view of selling on rallies in the medium - long term [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure (★) [1] - Tin: Rise and then fall (★) [1] - Aluminum: Rise and then fall (★) [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure (★) [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound (★) [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish (★) [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish (★) [1] Core Views - For precious metals, the geopolitical situation and central bank gold - buying support long - term prices, but short - term adjustments occur due to events like the cease - fire in the Middle East [1][3] - For base metals, supply - demand imbalances lead to different price trends. For example, copper is long - term bullish due to supply shortages and strong demand, while zinc is a bearish configuration in the medium - long term due to increasing supply and weakening demand [1][7][11] - For new energy metals like lithium carbonate, policy expectations and demand support prices, but attention should be paid to supply - side factors such as mine复产 [1][23] Summary by Variety Gold - **Market situation**: After the cease - fire in the Gaza Strip, the safe - haven sentiment partially withdrew, and gold adjusted from its high level [2] - **Logic**: Factors such as the US government shutdown, political uncertainties in France and Japan, and central bank gold - buying support the long - term rise of gold prices. The cease - fire in the Middle East causes short - term adjustments [3] - **Strategy**: Long - term positions should be held. Short - term investors can buy on dips. Domestic gold may test the 900 support level [1][4] Silver - **Market situation**: It fluctuates greatly following gold, with a significant drop after reaching a high [1] - **Logic**: Global policy stimulus leads to strong demand and an obvious supply - demand gap, supporting long - term prices. Gold price fluctuations impact the silver market [1] - **Strategy**: Short - term investors can try to go long, and long - term investors should hold [1] Copper - **Market situation**: Shanghai copper reached the 88,000 - yuan mark and then quickly fell back, while LME copper was close to its historical high [7] - **Logic**: Supply shortages due to mine accidents and production cuts, along with strong demand from emerging industries, drive up prices. However, high prices suppress short - term demand [7] - **Strategy**: Hold existing long positions with trailing stops. New long positions should wait for a pull - back to stabilize. Long - term bullish. Shanghai copper focus range is [84,500, 88,500] yuan/ton, and LME copper is [10,000, 11,000] dollars/ton [1][8] Zinc - **Market situation**: Zinc prices rose overnight and then fell back, with LME zinc back above the 3,000 - dollar mark. The domestic and overseas trends are divergent, with the domestic market being weaker [11] - **Logic**: Domestic supply is relatively loose, while overseas inventories are low. Demand from real estate and infrastructure is weak, but export may increase [11] - **Strategy**: In the short term, the upside space of Shanghai zinc is limited. Sell - hedging can be arranged on rallies. In the medium - long term, it is a bearish configuration. Shanghai zinc focus range is [22,000, 22,600] yuan/ton, and LME zinc is [2,900, 3,100] dollars/ton [12] Aluminum - **Market situation**: Aluminum prices rose and then fell, while alumina continued to be weak [14] - **Logic**: There is an expectation of interest - rate cuts overseas. The domestic aluminum inventory increased during the holiday, and the alumina market is in an oversupply situation [15] - **Strategy**: In the short term, take profit and wait and see. Pay attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprises'开工 rate. The main operating range of Shanghai aluminum is [20,600 - 21,500] [16] Nickel - **Market situation**: Nickel prices rebounded under pressure, and stainless steel prices slightly declined [18] - **Logic**: The supply of nickel ore is relatively sufficient, and the domestic pure nickel inventory increased slightly. The downstream consumption season is uncertain, and the inventory of stainless steel increased [19] - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see. Pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range of nickel is [121,000 - 125,000] [20] Lithium Carbonate - **Market situation**: The main contract LC2511 rose and then fell back, with the late - session gain narrowing [22] - **Logic**: Policy requirements and export controls impact the market. The production of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and the demand from the battery industry is relatively stable, which supports the price [23] - **Strategy**: Try to go long on dips in the range of [72,800 - 74,500] [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1][7][9] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1][12][13] - L: Bearish consolidation [1][15][18] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1][20][23] - PVC: Low - level oscillation [1][25][28] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1][32][33] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1][36][37] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [1][40][41] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [1][45][47] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [1][50][52] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [1][5][53] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [1][5] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [1][5] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [1][5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall energy and chemical market is under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, cost fluctuations, and macro - economic impacts. Most products are expected to show a bearish or weak - oscillating trend, but some products may have short - term opportunities based on specific supply - demand and cost changes [1][7][32] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 0.47% and Brent up 1.22%, while SC had no quote due to the holiday [6] - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ plans to increase production in November, and the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, with oil prices likely to be pressured to around $60 [7] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to increase as OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. Demand is expected to be lower than supply in 2025 - 2026. US commercial crude inventory increased in the week ending October 3 [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and buy call options. Focus on the range of [470 - 485] for SC [9] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 30, the PG main contract closed at 4,295 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China showed different changes [10][11] - **Basic Logic**: The cost side is bearish as the oil price center moves down and Saudi Arabia lowers the CP contract price. Supply is relatively sufficient, and demand has some improvement [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4150 - 4250] [13] L - **Market Review**: The L01 closing price was 7,153 yuan/ton, down 0.4%. Other related prices and positions also had corresponding changes [16] - **Basic Logic**: It mainly follows cost fluctuations. The cost support weakens as crude oil prices decline slightly during the holiday. Pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It runs weakly in the short term due to cost factors. Wait for a pull - back to try long positions. Focus on the range of [7100 - 7250] [18] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closing price was 6,852 yuan/ton, down 0.7%. Other related prices and positions changed accordingly [21][22] - **Basic Logic**: It follows cost fluctuations. Crude oil prices decline slightly during the holiday, while propylene is strong. Pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation and upstream device changes [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry can hedge at high prices. Wait for a pull - back to try long positions. Focus on the range of [6800 - 6950] [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closing price was 4,839 yuan/ton, down 1.2%. Other related prices and positions had corresponding changes [26][27] - **Basic Logic**: The cost support weakens as crude oil and calcium carbide prices decline slightly during the holiday. Pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation. The low valuation limits the downside [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a pull - back to try long positions. Focus on the range of [4800 - 5000] [28] PX - **Market Review**: On September 30, the PX spot price was 6,624 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [30][31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices are slightly increasing load, while demand - side PTA maintenance is high, leading to a loose supply - demand expectation. Macroeconomic factors also put pressure on oil prices [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially stop - profit short positions, short on rebounds, and sell call options. Focus on the range of [6490 - 6600] for PX511 [33] PTA - **Market Review**: On September 30, the PTA price in East China was 4,545 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [34][35] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure may ease due to expected device maintenance. Demand has improved recently. 9 - month supply - demand was in tight balance, but it is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [36] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop - profit short positions gradually after the holiday. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4520 - 4600] for TA01 [37] MEG - **Market Review**: On September 30, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,275 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [38][39] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices slightly increase load, overseas devices change little. Terminal demand has short - term improvement but is under pressure in the future. There is an expected increase in supply after the holiday [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short positions should be gradually stopped - profit after the holiday's low - opening and rebound. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4145 - 4210] for EG01 [41] Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 30, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,290 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [44] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure remains large as domestic devices resume production and overseas device load declines. Demand has improved, and cost support is stabilizing [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Focus on the range of [2311 - 2351] for MA01 [47] Urea - **Market Review**: On September 30, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [48][49] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively loose as enterprises resume production. Demand is weak domestically but good for exports. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Look for long - term opportunities to go long at low prices. Focus on the range of [1640 - 1670] for UR601 [52] Natural Gas - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively sufficient, causing gas prices to decline. The increase in rig count and the need for winter gas storage have some impact on prices [5] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost side is bearish as oil prices decline. Supply - demand is loose, and the valuation is high. Hold short positions [1][5] Glass - **Basic Logic**: The spot price was firm before the holiday, and the basis was continuously repaired. Factory inventory has been decreasing for 3 weeks. Pay attention to downstream restocking during the peak season. The supply is under pressure, and the demand from the real - estate sector is weak [1][5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions on the alkali - glass spread in the short term and be bearish on rebounds in the long term [5] Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The futures market is in a high - premium structure, and industrial hedging pressures the market. The demand for heavy soda has improved, and enterprise inventory has decreased for five consecutive weeks. Supply is expected to be loose [1][5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry can hedge at high prices. Be bearish on rebounds in the long term [5]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 节日期间现货变化不大，高炉生产基本正常，检修不多。螺纹表需受节日影响环比下降， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 产量略降，库存上升。整体来看，建筑钢材下游需求仍显疲弱，房地产及基建表现继续 | | | | 形成拖累，供需驱动力量有限，短期区间运行。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷表需受节日影响环比回落，产量小幅下降，库存上升，总体符合季节性表现。钢材 | | ★ | | 整体需求仍然偏弱，供需层面缺少持续向上驱动，或维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | | 截止到 10 月 7 日，今年十一小长假期间进口铁矿石市场表现出较为冷清的状态，海外 掉期与往期小长假期间表现一样处于窄幅震荡的状态。掉期价格较节前上涨 0.68％。 | | | 轻多参与 | | | ★ | | 节后来看，假期铁水产量高企，对矿价仍有支撑，节后钢厂预计有阶段性补库，带动矿 | | | | 价走强。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭现货第一轮提涨已落地，焦钢博弈明显。焦企利润一般，现货生产相对稳定。铁水 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 产量维持高 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★ [1] - Silver: ★★ [1] - Copper: ★★ [1] - Zinc: ★ [1] - Lead: ★ [1] - Tin: ★★ [1] - Aluminum: ★★ [1] - Nickel: ★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★ [1] Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are expected to benefit from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring in the long term, but short - term technical overbought risks should be guarded against [1][3][4] - Copper is a strategic resource in Sino - US competition and a substitute for precious metals, and is long - term bullish under the background of tight copper concentrate supply and booming green copper demand [1][9] - Zinc supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, short - term upside is limited, and it is a short - side allocation in the medium - to - long term [1][12] - Aluminum prices are expected to be strong, and short - term long positions can be considered [1][16] - Nickel and stainless steel are recommended to be on the sidelines for now, waiting for downstream consumption improvement [1][20] - Lithium carbonate prices are in a wide - range oscillation, and long positions should take profits in a timely manner [1][24] Summary by Variety Gold - **Market Performance**: During the National Day holiday, the overseas gold market was strong, with spot gold breaking through $4,000 per ounce, and COMEX gold rising 4.45%. Domestic gold may challenge the 910 position [2][4] - **Driving Factors**: US government shutdown, weak economic data, French political turmoil, Japanese leadership change, and central bank gold - buying behavior contribute to the rise [3] - **Strategy**: Long - term positions should be held, and short - term positions can be deployed on dips [4] Silver - **Market Performance**: It follows the sharp fluctuations of gold and copper markets, with short - term high sentiment. Domestic silver may challenge the 11,300 position [1][4] - **Driving Factors**: Global policy stimulus, strong demand, and obvious supply - demand gap support long - term bullishness [1] - **Strategy**: Short - term long positions can be tried, and long - term positions should be held [1] Copper - **Market Performance**: During the National Day holiday, LME copper hit a new high of $10,802.5 per ton, and SHFE copper may open higher [6][8] - **Driving Factors**: US government shutdown, weak employment data, Fed rate - cut expectations, weak US dollar, geopolitical risks, and supply disruptions in Indonesian mines [8] - **Strategy**: Hold existing long positions, and new long positions can be entered after a pull - back. Long - term bullishness is maintained [9] Zinc - **Market Performance**: LME zinc hit a new high during the holiday but then declined. SHFE zinc may rise in the short term but with limited upside [10][11][12] - **Driving Factors**: Low LME zinc inventory, supply - demand imbalance with increasing supply and decreasing demand in the medium - to - long term [11][12] - **Strategy**: Short - term sell - hedging can be arranged at high levels, and it is a short - side allocation in the medium - to - long term [12] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: LME aluminum rose during the holiday, and SHFE aluminum is expected to follow suit [13][14] - **Driving Factors**: Expected decrease in overseas bauxite arrivals, and support from terminal consumption [15] - **Strategy**: Short - term long positions can be taken at low levels, paying attention to downstream processing enterprise operations [16] Nickel - **Market Performance**: LME nickel rose slightly during the holiday, and SHFE nickel may continue to rebound [17][18] - **Driving Factors**: Overseas political situation has limited impact on nickel supply, and there is a supply - demand divergence within the domestic nickel industry chain [19] - **Strategy**: Wait and see for now, paying attention to downstream consumption improvement [20] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2511 opened high and closed low, with pre - holiday fluctuations converging [22] - **Driving Factors**: Increasing production, stable downstream demand, and expected inventory reduction [23] - **Strategy**: Take profits on long positions in the range of 72,800 - 74,500 [24]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Short - term Rebound**: Bean meal, rapeseed meal [1] - **Short - term Bullish**: Palm oil, soybean oil [1] - **Stronger Operation**: Rapeseed oil [1] - **Bearish**: Cotton, live pigs [1] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Red dates [1] Core Views - **Bean Meal**: Short - term rebound expected due to potential US - China trade talks on soybeans, post - holiday market recovery in China, and dry planting weather in Brazil [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term rebound, with multiple factors in a tug - of - war. It is likely to follow the trend of bean meal as social inventory may decrease during the holiday [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bullish. The B50 biodiesel policy in Indonesia and reduced inventory in Malaysia are expected to boost domestic palm oil prices after the holiday [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term bullish. Influenced by the US - China trade situation, Brazilian weather, and the palm oil market, it is expected to open higher after the holiday [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Expected to run strongly due to low oil mill operating rates, market sentiment, and the entry into the consumption season [1]. - **Cotton**: Bearish. Supply pressure from new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere, weak demand, and no significant support from the spot market. Short - term short - allocation of near - month contracts is recommended [1]. - **Red Dates**: Cautiously bearish. New fruit may face pressure after listing. There may be volatile price movements before November, and short - selling opportunities on price rebounds are recommended [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Bearish. High supply and expected weakening demand may lead to further decline in futures prices after the holiday. Short - allocation and reverse spreads are recommended [1]. Summary by Variety Bean Meal - **Market Data**: As of September 26, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 938.5 million tons, up 40.2 million tons week - on - week. 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 719.91 million tons, up 3.63% week - on - week, and bean meal inventory was 118.92 million tons, down 4.86% week - on - week [3]. - **Price and Spread**: Futures price of the main contract was 2928 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The national average spot price was 3018.57 yuan/ton, up 0.14% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: As of September 26, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 2.6 million tons, down 2 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory was 1.5 million tons, down 0.25 million tons week - on - week [6]. - **Price and Spread**: Futures price of the main contract was 2421 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The national average spot price was 2581.05 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. Palm Oil - **Market Data**: As of September 26, 2025, national key region commercial inventory was 55.22 million tons, down 5.62% week - on - week, up 9.16% year - on - year [8]. - **Price and Spread**: Futures price of the main contract was 9228 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The national average price was 9185 yuan/ton, down 1.18% [7]. Cotton - **Market Data**: As of a certain period, domestic cotton commercial inventory dropped to 103.15 million tons, lower than the same period last year. Spinning mill operating rates were relatively stable, and weaving mill operating rates declined slightly [9][11]. - **Price and Spread**: Futures price of the main contract CF2601 was 13215 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. The China Cotton Price Index (3128B) dropped 103 yuan/ton during the holiday [9][10]. Red Dates - **Market Data**: Mysteel estimated new - season production at 56 - 62 million tons. 36 sample enterprises' physical inventory was 9203 tons, down 44 tons week - on - week [15]. - **Price and Spread**: Futures price of the main contract CJ2601 was 10820 yuan/ton, down 0.87%. Spot prices were generally stable [13]. Live Pigs - **Market Data**: National sample enterprises' monthly生猪存栏量 was 3782.4 million, up 0.51%, and monthly出栏量 was 1117.72 million, up 2.39% [17]. - **Price and Spread**: Futures price of the main contract Lh2511 was 12355 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. National average spot price of external ternary pigs dropped to 12.51 yuan/kg during the holiday [17][18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [2] - L: Bearish consolidation [2] - PP: Bearish consolidation [2] - PVC: Low - level oscillation [2] - PX: Cautiously bearish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [4] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [6] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [6] Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical disturbances and OPEC+ production expansion lead to increased crude oil price volatility, with a downward pressure on prices in the long - term. For other energy and chemical products, their prices are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and inventory, showing different trends [2][4][6] Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fell significantly, with WTI down 3.45%, Brent down 3.08%, and SC up 1.10% [7] - **Basic Logic**: In mid - to late September, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries caused oil prices to rebound. The focus is on the October 5 OPEC+ meeting, and in the long - term, supply may exceed demand, likely pushing oil prices down to around $60 [8] - **Fundamentals**: Supply from the Iraq - Turkey pipeline has recovered to 15 - 160,000 barrels per day. Indian refinery crude processing volume in August decreased by 4.4% month - on - month. As of September 19, US commercial crude inventory decreased by 607,000 barrels [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and buy call options. Focus on the range of [475 - 485] for SC [10] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 29, the PG main contract closed at 4,295 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [13] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of oil is weakening, downstream chemical demand is rising, and the supply is abundant during the double - festival. As of September 29, the number of warehouse receipts decreased [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4250 - 4350] for PG [15] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,181 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [19] - **Basic Logic**: It follows cost fluctuations in the short - term. Social inventory has been decreasing for 5 weeks. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is strengthening due to the peak season of shed films [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [7100 - 7250] for L [20] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,903 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [24] - **Basic Logic**: It follows cost fluctuations in the short - term. The supply pressure may ease, and the downstream demand is entering the peak season [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries can hedge at high prices. Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [6800 - 7000] for PP [25] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,896 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [29] - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals are supply - strong and demand - weak, with inventory accumulating for 14 weeks. However, low prices and positive macro - expectations support the price. There are many planned device overhauls in October [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [4800 - 5000] for V [30] PX - **Market Review**: On September 26, the PX spot price was 6,773 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan [33] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices have little change, and demand - side PTA may have more overhauls later. The supply - demand balance is expected to be loose, and inventory is still relatively high [33] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop loss on short positions and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of [6560 - 6670] for PX511 [34] PTA - **Market Review**: On September 26, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,590 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [36] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure may ease due to planned overhauls. Demand has improved recently. The supply - demand balance in September is tight and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually stop loss on short positions. Hold long positions lightly before the festival and look for opportunities to short on rebounds after the festival. Focus on the range of [4560 - 4650] for TA01 [38] MEG - **Market Review**: On September 26, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,311 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [40] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have reduced their loads, and overseas devices have little change. Terminal demand has improved, but inventory is low. The market is concerned about the supply increase from new devices [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of [4165 - 4240] for EG01 [41] Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 26, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,293 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [44] - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure is still large, but demand has improved, and the social inventory is decreasing. Cost support is stabilizing [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [45] Urea - **Market Review**: On September 26, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [49] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively loose, with production resuming. Domestic demand is weak, while exports are good. Inventory is accumulating [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Look for opportunities to go long on dips in the long - term [4]