Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report, but individual metal - specific outlooks are given [1] Group 2: Report's Core Views - Gold is expected to be in a high - level oscillation due to the Fed's dovish remarks, the weakening dollar, and central banks' gold purchases. Silver will have a strong oscillation, affected by industrial demand and other metals' prices. Most base metals like copper, zinc, lead, tin, and aluminum are expected to have short - term rebounds, while industrial silicon and polysilicon will have high - level oscillations, and lithium carbonate is expected to be relatively strong [1] Group 3: Summaries by Metal Gold and Silver - **行情回顾**: Despite positive US data, Fed officials' dovish stance and ongoing tariff negotiations led to gold and silver maintaining high - level oscillations [2] - **基本逻辑**: The risk of US economic recession is reduced, there are potential changes in the Fed's leadership and possible rate cuts, Japanese inflation shows mixed trends, and with large tariff uncertainties, gold has a long - term bullish outlook [3] - **策略推荐**: Gold may have short - term adjustments, but with the dollar's medium - term weakness, it has strong support around 760. Silver has support at 9000, and a long - position approach is recommended [3] Copper - **行情回顾**: Shanghai copper strongly rebounded and returned to the 79,000 level [6] - **产业逻辑**: The shortage of copper concentrates persists. New smelter production has increased electrolytic copper output. Domestic social inventory has slightly decreased, and LME inventory accumulation has slowed. Downstream开工率 has increased, and green copper demand in power and automotive sectors offsets the weak real - estate copper demand [6] - **策略推荐**: With expectations of industry reform and positive overseas economic data, short - term copper long positions should be held, and there is long - term confidence in copper. Shanghai copper is expected to be in the range of [78500, 80500], and London copper in the range of [9700, 9900] dollars per ton [7] Zinc - **行情回顾**: Shanghai zinc rose over 2% and broke through the oscillation range [8] - **产业逻辑**: Zinc ore supply is abundant in 2025. Domestic inventory has slightly increased, and LME inventory has decreased. Downstream galvanizing enterprises'开工率 is affected by weak steel demand [8] - **策略推荐**: Short - term zinc long positions should be held cautiously, and some can take profits at high prices. In the long term, short - selling opportunities should be grasped. Shanghai zinc is expected to be in the range of [22500, 23500], and London zinc in the range of [2680, 2880] dollars per ton [9] Aluminum - **行情回顾**: Aluminum prices rebounded, and alumina also showed a rebound trend [10] - **产业逻辑**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas uncertainties remain, production capacity has increased, inventory has risen, and demand is weak in the off - season. For alumina, there are disturbances in Guinea, and short - term supply is tight, but the overall supply - demand structure is expected to be loose [11] - **策略推荐**: Look for short - selling opportunities during the rebound of Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20000, 20900]. Alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [11] Nickel - **行情回顾**: Nickel prices rebounded from a low level, and stainless steel also showed a rebound [12] - **产业逻辑**: For nickel, overseas uncertainties exist, and the price of Philippine nickel ore may decline. Domestic nickel supply - demand improvement is limited, and inventory has increased. For stainless steel, production cuts have weakened, and inventory pressure has reappeared in the off - season [13] - **策略推荐**: Look for short - selling opportunities during the rebound of nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [118000, 122000] [13] Carbonate Lithium - **行情回顾**: The main contract LC2509 increased in position and broke through 70,000 [14] - **产业逻辑**: In the spot market, lithium salt producers are eager to sell, and basis has weakened. Total inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks. The new - energy vehicle market's growth has slowed, but the energy - storage market supports demand. There are many supply - side disturbances [15] - **策略推荐**: It is expected to operate strongly in the short term, with a range of [68000, 71000] [15]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 强现实与弱预期继续博弈，油价反弹偏空。从供需基本面看，当前呈现旺 | | 原油 | 反弹偏空 | 季强现实，全球原油库存处于低位，但随着 OPEC+逐渐扩产，油价供给 | | | | 过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大，重点关注供给端 OPEC 实际增产 | | | | 量与美国产量。策略：轻仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。SC【510-530】 | | | | 成本端企稳，下游开工率提高，短线偏震荡，前期空单可止盈。成本端油 | | LPG | | 价企稳，美国丙烷处于消费淡季，供给相对充足；下游燃烧需求处于淡季， | | | 空单止盈 | 化工需求回升，PDH 开工率上升；供给和库存中性偏空，国内商品量小幅 | | | | 下降，港口库存累库。策略：短线震荡，空单可止盈。PG【4050-4150】 | | | | 市场情绪好转，基本面暂无新利空出现，盘面在 7200 附近呈现一定支撑 | | | | 力度。供需偏弱，社会库存连续 3 周累库，月差、基差边际走弱。进口贸 | | L | 空头盘整 | 易商接盘态 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range due to dovish remarks from Fed officials, threats to the Fed's independence, a medium - term weakening trend of the US dollar, loose policies in many countries, and continued gold purchases by central banks. Silver is likely to have a strong - level range as there is a supply gap, economic demand is supported, and it is affected by the prices of base metals and gold. Copper is expected to oscillate, with a short - term rebound and long - term optimism. Zinc will have a short - term rebound and long - term supply - demand imbalance. Lead is under pressure due to increased supply and insufficient consumption. Tin's short - term rebound is under pressure because of slow复产 and seasonal consumption decline. Aluminum's rebound is under pressure with high production capacity and weak terminal demand. Nickel may have a short - term rebound but faces long - term challenges. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in high - level ranges. Lithium carbonate is expected to be relatively strong [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Despite positive US data, gold and silver maintained a high - level range due to dovish Fed statements and ongoing tariff negotiations [2]. - **Underlying Logic**: The risk of a US economic recession has decreased, with better - than - expected initial jobless claims and retail sales data. There are potential changes in the Fed's leadership, and geopolitical issues such as the Iran - nuclear deal remain uncertain. The long - term bullish trend for gold is supported by tariff uncertainties, global order reshaping, and loose fiscal and monetary policies [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has strong support around 760, and the long - term bullish view remains unchanged. Silver has support at 9000, and a long - position approach is advisable [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated around the 78,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **Industry Logic**: The shortage of copper concentrates persists, and electrolytic copper production has increased significantly. There are concerns about copper inventory flowing back to the Asian market, but downstream开工 has rebounded, and green copper demand in power and automotive sectors is resilient [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, copper has rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips. In the long term, due to the tight global copper ore supply, a bullish view on copper is maintained. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [77,800, 79,500] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [9,600, 9,800] US dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc continued to rebound and traded in a range [7]. - **Industry Logic**: The zinc ore supply is expected to be abundant in 2025, and smelters are actively resuming production. Domestic inventory has slightly increased, and the galvanizing enterprise开工 rate is lower than usual due to weak steel demand [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, zinc will continue to rebound due to improved macro and sector sentiment. In the long term, given the supply - demand imbalance, it is advisable to short on rallies. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [22,000, 22,600] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [2,680, 2,780] US dollars/ton [8]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded slightly, and alumina also showed a rebound trend [9]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas macro uncertainties remain. Production capacity is high, inventory has increased, and downstream开工 has declined. For alumina, overseas bauxite imports are high, and there are short - term supply shortages due to some enterprise maintenance. The supply - demand structure is expected to be loose in the short term [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rallies for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20,000, 20,800] yuan/ton. Alumina is expected to trade in a low - level range [10]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded from a low level, and stainless steel also showed a rebound [11]. - **Industry Logic**: For nickel, overseas uncertainties remain, and the price of Philippine nickel ore may decline. Domestic nickel supply - demand conditions have improved slightly, and inventory has increased. For stainless steel, the production cut has weakened, and inventory pressure has reappeared during the off - season [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118,000, 122,000] yuan/ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 increased in position and price, then pulled back [13]. - **Industry Logic**: Supply - side disruptions such as mine closures have led to a strong rally in the main contract, pricing in improved supply - demand conditions. However, total inventory has reached a new high. Although import pressure has eased, domestic production remains high. Terminal demand in the new - energy vehicle market has slowed, but the energy - storage market has some growth [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lithium carbonate is expected to be relatively strong in the short term, with a trading range of [66,500, 67,500] yuan/ton [14].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil): Bullish [1][3][4][5] - Iron ore: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [1][8][9] - Coke: Bullish [1][10][12][13] - Coking coal: Bullish [1][14][16][17] - Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon): Range-bound [1][18][20][21] Core Views of the Report - The steel market continues to be driven by production cut news and significant increases in raw material prices, with rebar showing seasonal weakness in production and demand but still expected to run strongly due to increased hot metal production and positive market sentiment; hot-rolled coil has relatively stable fundamentals and may maintain a strong trend in the short term due to macro policies and raw material price increases [1][4][5] - The iron ore market has seen a significant increase in hot metal production, with both supply and arrivals increasing, and subsequent shipments expected to rise. However, the rapid recent price increase has compressed profit margins, so it is not advisable to chase the rise, and short-term observation is recommended while considering short positions in the medium term [1][8][9] - The coke market has seen the first round of spot price increases implemented, with expectations of further increases. Market sentiment is affected by production cut news, and steel mill restocking has made the market more positive, so it may maintain a strong trend [1][12][13] - The coking coal market has seen a recent increase in domestic production, approaching last year's levels. Some mines have resumed production in July, and supply is expected to increase. Upstream inventory has decreased, spot trading has improved, and downstream restocking has boosted the market, so it may continue to run strongly in the short term [1][16][17] - The ferroalloy market has limited supply-demand contradictions. The ferromanganese market has increasing supply and decreasing demand, with cost support from manganese ore but potential cost weakening. The ferrosilicon market has both supply and demand decreasing, with lower production area electricity prices and high factory inventories, so it is expected to trade within a range [1][20][21] Summary by Variety Steel Rebar - **Market situation**: There are still occasional production cut news, and significant increases in raw material prices drive the steel price up. Production and apparent demand have decreased month-on-month, total inventory has increased slightly, showing obvious seasonal weakness. Hot metal production has increased significantly, driving up the expected demand for furnace materials [1][4][5] - **Price range**: [3150, 3190] [1] - **Operation suggestion**: May continue to run strongly [1][5] Hot-rolled Coil - **Market situation**: Production, apparent demand, and inventory changes are small, with relatively stable fundamentals and limited contradictions. The market is trading around macro policies, anti-involution, and industry production cut policies, and raw material price increases have also pushed up the steel price [1][4][5] - **Price range**: [3320, 3360] [1] - **Operation suggestion**: May maintain a strong trend in the short term [1][5] Iron Ore - **Market situation**: Hot metal production has increased significantly, with both supply and arrivals increasing, and subsequent shipments expected to rise. Ports and steel mills have both seen inventory accumulation. Steel mills have good profits and high production enthusiasm, and locking in profits on the futures market has driven up the iron ore price. However, the rapid recent price increase has compressed profit margins [1][8] - **Price range**: [785, 815] [1] - **Operation suggestion**: Short-term observation, consider short positions in the medium term [1][9] Coke - **Market situation**: The first round of spot price increases has been implemented, and there are expectations of further increases. There is a lot of production cut news in the market, which affects market sentiment. Steel mill restocking after the rapid price increase has made the market more positive [1][12] - **Price range**: [1520, 1550] [1] - **Operation suggestion**: May maintain a strong trend [1][13] Coking Coal - **Market situation**: Domestic production has recently increased, approaching last year's levels. Some mines have resumed production in July, and supply is expected to increase. Upstream inventory has decreased month-on-month, spot trading has improved, and market sentiment has generally improved. Downstream restocking has boosted the market [1][16] - **Price range**: [920, 950] [1] - **Operation suggestion**: May continue to run strongly in the short term [1][17] Ferroalloys Ferromanganese - **Market situation**: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and inventory pressure has not been significantly relieved. Manganese ore currently supports the price, but there are expectations of cost weakening due to lower electricity costs in multiple production areas and slightly lower long-term quotes from some mines. Hot metal production is at a high level, providing rigid support for ferromanganese demand [1][20] - **Price range**: [5700, 5890] [1] - **Operation suggestion**: Short-term trading is mainly sentiment-driven, and attention should be paid to the 6000 yuan/ton integer mark [1][21] Ferrosilicon - **Market situation**: Both supply and demand are decreasing. Production area electricity prices have decreased, further lowering the cost line. Factory inventories are still relatively high, some factories plan to resume production, and the downstream consumption off-season has arrived, increasing the difficulty of factory de-stocking [1][20] - **Price range**: [5390, 5575] [1] - **Operation suggestion**: Short-term trading is mainly sentiment-driven, and the market is expected to trade within a range [1][21]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 大区间震荡 | 按照 CPC 月度展望来看，7 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 | | | | 面丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段。饲料企业库存 | | | | 开始走高于去年同期，进一步补库积极性预计会有所减缓。7 月美农报告调增新年 | | 豆粕 | | 度美豆期末库存，偏利空。美豆下跌。昨日美豆种植报告显示种植情况环比改善。 | | | | 昨日豆粕小幅收跌。在缺乏基本面利多驱动下，价格出现整理。短期走势，在基本 | | | | 面偏弱及中美贸易关税成本支撑双重作用下，豆粕以大区间行情对待。主力【2970， | | | | 3040】 | | | 大区间震荡 | 欧盟及加籽种植天气降雨偏低，部分地区土壤墒情偏干。新季全球菜籽产量有所恢 | | | | 复，但加籽种植面积同比下降，同比增幅受限，关注后续天气及单产情况。国内市 | | | | 场，目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比整体去库，商业库存去库，但同比维持较高水平。 | | | | 7 月至 9 月菜籽进口同比大幅 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Take profit on short positions [1] - L: Continue short positions [1] - PP: Continue short positions [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - PX: Bearish [1] - PTA/PR: Bearish on rebounds [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Buy on pullbacks [2] - Soda ash: Narrow - range sideways [2] - Caustic soda: Slowdown in upward trend [2] - Methanol: Bearish on rebounds [2] - Urea: Short - term rebound in a bear market [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Weak sideways [2] Core Views - The supply pressure of the oil market is gradually rising, and the oil price is weak. The supply - demand pattern of most chemical products is weak, with cost support weakening and inventory accumulation in some cases. Some products are affected by policy expectations and new capacity releases [1][2][4] Summary by Variety Crude oil - **Market situation**: Overnight international oil prices continued to decline. WTI dropped 2.00%, Brent dropped 0.28%, and SC dropped 0.45% [3] - **Basic logic**: The oil market shows a situation of weak expectations and strong reality. Although it is in the consumption peak season, the pressure brought by OPEC's production increase is gradually released, and the oil price center still has room to decline. Russia's June seaborne oil product exports decreased by 3.4% to 8.98 million tons. China's June crude oil imports were 49.888 million tons, with a cumulative increase of 1.4% from January to June. The EIA data shows that as of the week of July 11, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.9 million barrels [4] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the medium - to - long term, due to factors such as the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC +'s expansion cycle, the supply of crude oil will be in excess, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate between 60 - 70 US dollars per barrel. In the short term, it is recommended to lightly short and buy call options for protection. Focus on SC [505 - 525] [5] LPG - **Market situation**: On July 16, the PG main contract closed at 4108 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.25%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased to varying degrees [7] - **Basic logic**: With the production increase of OPEC +, the supply pressure of LPG is increasing. Two PDH plants are planned to restart at the end of the month, providing some support. As of July 11, the LPG commodity volume decreased, and the PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil operating rates changed. Refinery and port inventories increased [8] - **Strategy recommendation**: After the release of geopolitical risks, from the perspective of supply - demand, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to move down. Currently, the ratio of LPG to crude oil is high, so it is recommended to take profit on previous short positions. Focus on PG [4000 - 4100] [9] L - **Market situation**: Both futures and spot prices declined. The North China basis was - 64 (down 23 compared to the previous period) [11] - **Basic logic**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, social inventories have increased for three consecutive weeks, the 9 - 1 spread has turned negative, and the basis is at a low level. Although recent device maintenance has alleviated supply pressure marginally, 2.05 million tons of new devices are planned to be put into production from July to August, with a weak medium - to - long - term outlook. The agricultural film operating rate has increased month - on - month [12] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on L [7150 - 7300] [12] PP - **Market situation**: The East China basis was 80 (down 14 compared to the previous period). The market is expected to continue to be weak [15] - **Basic logic**: Cost support is weakening, and recent warehouse receipts have been increasing. Enterprises and traders' inventories have decreased this week, but there are more device restart plans in the future. 2 million tons of new capacity are planned to be added in the third quarter, with long - term supply pressure. From January to May, exports increased by 22% year - on - year, and export profits are positive [16] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on PP [6950 - 7100] [16] PVC - **Market situation**: The Changzhou basis was - 94 (up 31 compared to the previous period). The spot price is expected to be weakly sideways [19] - **Basic logic**: Short - term policy expectations have weakened, and trading has returned to the weak fundamental situation. Social inventories have increased for three consecutive weeks, and new capacity is being released. Both domestic and foreign demand are in the off - season. In July, the supply - demand pattern tends to accumulate inventory. However, due to the expected Politburo meeting at the end of the month and the stabilization of coal prices, there is support at the bottom [20] - **Strategy recommendation**: Short - term long and long - term short. Focus on V [4900 - 5100] [20] PX - **Market situation**: On July 11, the spot price in East China was 7120 yuan/ton (unchanged compared to the previous period), and the PX09 contract closed at 6694 (- 88) yuan/ton [22] - **Basic logic**: Domestic devices have reduced their loads, while overseas devices are operating at a relatively high load. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and PX inventories are still relatively high. The PXN spread is 256.7 (+ 5.3) US dollars/ton [23] - **Strategy recommendation**: Focus on shorting opportunities on rallies. Focus on PX [6650 - 6750] [23] PTA - **Market situation**: On July 11, the PTA price in East China was 4715 (- 20) yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4700 (- 42) yuan/ton [24] - **Basic logic**: The processing fee is relatively high, and the supply is abundant. Some devices are under maintenance or shut down. Downstream polyester production cuts are ongoing, and the terminal weaving operating rate is declining. Inventory is being depleted, and the basis is weakening [25] - **Strategy recommendation**: Focus on shorting opportunities on rallies. Focus on TA [4650 - 4710] [26] MEG - **Market situation**: On July 11, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4383 (- 3) yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4305 (- 20) yuan/ton [27] - **Basic logic**: The number of domestic and overseas device overhauls is less than restarts, and the expected arrival volume is increasing. The demand is expected to weaken, and the polyester operating rate is declining. The social inventory has stopped falling, and the port inventory is low [28] - **Strategy recommendation**: Focus on shorting opportunities on rallies. Focus on EG [4300 - 4360] [29] Glass - **Market situation**: Spot market quotes were lowered, the futures price corrected, the basis fluctuated narrowly, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [32] - **Basic logic**: At the macro level, policies on backward capacity exit and coal - fired production line technological transformation are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. In the short term, due to high - temperature conditions, the market is restricted. The in - production capacity of glass fluctuates slightly at a low level, production has increased slightly, and inventories have continued to decline [32] - **Strategy recommendation**: Focus on FG [1060 - 1090] [32] Soda ash - **Market situation**: The spot price of heavy soda ash was lowered, the futures price closed down, the main - contract basis widened, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the number of valid forecasts remained unchanged [34] - **Basic logic**: Although the high - level meeting mentioned supply - side capacity reduction, the impact of policy speculation has weakened, and soda ash manufacturers have accumulated inventories again. The supply is at a high level, and inventory removal is difficult. Downstream support is okay, but terminal consumption is weak [35] - **Strategy recommendation**: Treat it with a wide - range sideways thinking. Focus on SA [1200 - 1230] [2] Caustic soda - **Market situation**: The spot price of caustic soda was partially lowered, the futures price dropped from a high level, the basis strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [37] - **Basic logic**: The supply side has a summer maintenance season inventory - removal expectation, and the new capacity is expected to be put into production. The supply pressure may be relieved in the short term. The downstream alumina operating rate has increased, but non - aluminum demand is weak. The cost support has shifted downwards, and the inventory has decreased [38] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold long positions cautiously. Focus on SH [2460 - 2510] [38] Methanol - **Market situation**: On July 11, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2381 (- 23) yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2370 (- 28) yuan/ton [39] - **Basic logic**: Domestic methanol device overhauls are ongoing, but the comprehensive operating load remains relatively high. Overseas devices have recovered to the same - period high. The demand has a negative feedback, and the coastal MTO external - procurement device load has continued to decline. Social inventories are accumulating [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Short on rallies. Focus on MA [2345 - 2375] [2] Urea - **Market situation**: The supply is under pressure, with a daily output of nearly 200,000 tons. The industrial demand is weak, and the agricultural fertilizer demand has weakened month - on - month, but the fertilizer export growth rate is fast [2] - **Basic logic**: The cost support still exists, and the basis is strong. The domestic urea fundamentals are still relatively loose, and there is short - term speculation on urea exports [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Lightly go long. Focus on UR [1725 - 1755] [2] Asphalt - **Market situation**: The cost - side oil price has declined, and the raw material supply is sufficient. The supply has decreased slightly, and inventories are accumulating [2] - **Basic logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the current cracking spread is at a high level, with high valuation [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Lightly short. Focus on BU [3550 - 3650] [2] Propylene - **Market situation**: The cost - side prices of crude oil and propane have continued to fall, and the cost support has weakened [2] - **Basic logic**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, some PP devices are shut down for maintenance, and new capacity in East China and Shandong is about to be put into production, putting pressure on the supply [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Short on rallies. Focus on propylene in the range of [6200 - 6350] [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - The steel market sentiment has slightly decreased, and it is expected to operate within a range [3]. - The fundamentals of iron ore have weakened, and its price may face pressure [7]. - The market sentiment for coke has slightly decreased, and it is expected to operate within a range [10]. - The sentiment for coking coal has slightly decreased, and it is expected to operate within a range [14]. - The supply - demand contradiction in ferroalloys is limited, and they are expected to operate within a range [18]. Summary by Variety Steel (including rebar and hot - rolled coil) - **Rebar**: The Urban Work Conference did not release stimulus signals, indicating the end of the real - estate incremental era, which was more bearish than expected. In terms of supply and demand, both production and apparent demand of rebar decreased month - on - month, and the total inventory slightly declined, showing obvious off - season characteristics. Although the molten iron output dropped below 2.4 million tons, the absolute level remained high. Currently, trading has shifted from industrial logic to macro - sentiment and policy - expectation logic, and it is expected to operate within the range of [3100, 3140] in the short term [1][4][5]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Both the production and apparent demand of hot - rolled coil slightly decreased month - on - month, and the inventory changed little. The overall supply - demand was relatively balanced with limited fundamental contradictions. After the Urban Work Conference, the market sentiment declined, but later meetings such as the Politburo meeting may still provide stimulus. It is expected to operate within the range of [3260, 3300] in the short term [1][5]. Iron Ore - Fundamentally, on the demand side, the molten iron output is decreasing and is expected to continue to decline slowly. On the supply side, both arrivals and shipments have increased, and there will be more shipments later. Ports are reducing inventory, and steel mills are restocking for rigid demand. The overall supply - demand structure is moderately weak. As the Urban Conference did not meet expectations, attention should be paid to the introduction of supply - side reform policies at the industrial level. In the short term, the futures market may return to fundamental trading. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and lay out short positions in the medium term, with the price range of [770, 795] [1][8][9]. Coke - The first round of spot price increases has occurred, and the coking profit has slightly improved. The fundamentals of coke have generally changed little. The output of independent coking enterprises has recently declined, but the output of steel - mill coking enterprises remains high. The absolute level of molten iron output is high, ensuring the demand for raw materials. The total inventory decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high. The market sentiment has slightly cooled down, and it is expected to operate within the range of [1490, 1520] [1][12][13]. Coking Coal - The domestic coking coal production has recently decreased, and the absolute level is close to that of the same period last year. Since July, some shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production, and the supply is expected to increase later. The upstream inventory decreased month - on - month, and the spot trading has improved. The overall market sentiment has improved. The short - term macro - expectation has slightly cooled down, and it is expected to operate within the range of [890, 920] [1][16][17]. Ferrous Alloys (including manganese silicon and silicon iron) - **Manganese silicon**: Fundamentally, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and the inventory pressure has not been significantly relieved. The manganese ore on the cost side temporarily supports the price. However, recently, the electricity - cost in many production areas has decreased, and the long - term quotes of some mines have slightly dropped, so there is still an expectation of cost - side loosening. Although the molten iron output is currently at a high level, the actual demand may be pressured to decline due to the off - season. In the short term, the market is mainly driven by sentiment. In the medium term, the price may be pressured to operate. Attention should be paid to the 6000 yuan/ton integer mark, with the price range of [5655, 5845] [1][20][21]. - **Silicon iron**: Fundamentally, both supply and demand are decreasing. After the electricity price in production areas was lowered, the cost line has further moved down. The current factory inventory level is still relatively high, and some factories still have plans to resume production. As the downstream consumption off - season has arrived, it is more difficult for factories to reduce inventory. In the short term, the market is mainly driven by sentiment, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited. It is expected that the market will operate within the range of [5315, 5500] [1][20][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High - level oscillation, strategic allocation [1] - Silver: High - level oscillation, maintain a long - position mindset [1][3] - Copper: Oscillation, long - term bullish, short - term pay attention to the risk of pullback [1][6] - Zinc: Under pressure, seize short - selling opportunities on rallies [1][9] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure, focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [1][11] - Nickel: Under pressure, focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [1][13] - Industrial silicon: High - level operation [1] - Polysilicon: High - level operation, take appropriate profit - taking for long positions [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global order is being reshaped, with fiscal and monetary double - easing trends remaining unchanged, and gold is in a long - term bull market. However, short - term adjustments may occur, and the US dollar is in a medium - term weak trend [3]. - For copper, although there is a risk of short - term pullback due to inventory and demand factors, the long - term outlook is positive as copper is an important strategic resource and the global copper mine shortage is difficult to alleviate [6]. - Zinc is facing short - term pressure due to factors such as the repair of processing fees, anti - dumping of overseas steel, and tariff uncertainties. In the long run, supply increases while demand weakens [9]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure as the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, inventory accumulates, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season [11]. - Nickel prices are under pressure due to factors such as tariff disturbances, weak terminal demand, and inventory accumulation [13]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are at high levels, but there are also factors restricting their upward movement, such as high inventory for industrial silicon and high prices and margin increases for polysilicon [1]. - Lithium carbonate is in a high - level oscillation, with the market affected by rumors and inventory contradictions, and the fundamentals have marginally improved but the inventory accumulation trend remains [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold and silver maintained high - level oscillation due to low US inflation, ongoing tariff negotiations, and the possible dismissal of Powell [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US inflation was lower than expected in June; Trump considered dismissing Powell, threatening the independence of the Fed; there are geopolitical issues regarding the Iran nuclear problem; and there are still many tariff variables, with the global order reshaping and fiscal - monetary double - easing trends unchanged [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has strong support around 760, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. Silver has support at 9000, and a long - position mindset should be adopted [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated around the 78,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **Industrial Logic**: The tight situation of copper concentrates persists. The production of electrolytic copper has increased due to new smelter projects. The inventory of LME copper increased by over 10,000 tons, and there are concerns about the return of excess copper inventory from the US to the Asian market. The downstream start - up rate has increased, and the demand from the power and automotive sectors has offset the weak demand from the real estate construction sector [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be vigilant about the pullback pressure caused by the verification of demand, but expect the deep decline of copper prices to be limited. Consider buying on dips after pullbacks. In the long run, be confident in the upward trend of copper prices. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [77,000 - 79,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [9600 - 9800] US dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc stopped falling and rebounded, with narrow - range oscillation [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose in 2025, and the processing fees of zinc concentrates have continued to rebound. The domestic inventory has slightly increased, and the LME zinc inventory increased by 7.7% overnight. The start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is affected by the weak steel demand [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, zinc is under pressure to decline. In the long run, supply increases while demand weakens. Seize short - selling opportunities on rallies. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [21,800 - 22,200] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [2680 - 2780] US dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina prices declined [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity remains high, the inventory has increased, and the demand is in the off - season. For alumina, the import of bauxite remains high, and some domestic enterprises have carried out maintenance and production suspension, but the overall supply - demand structure is expected to remain loose [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, and pay attention to the change in aluminum ingot inventory. The main operating range is [20,000 - 20,800] yuan/ton. Alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices were under pressure to rebound, and stainless steel prices rebounded and then declined [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: For nickel, the overseas environment is uncertain, and the price of Philippine nickel ore may continue to weaken. The domestic supply - demand situation has improved limitedly, and the inventory has accumulated again. For stainless steel, the production reduction intensity has weakened, and the inventory pressure has reappeared in the off - season [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118,000 - 122,000] yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 slightly reduced positions and closed higher, with shrinking trading volume [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply and demand have both increased, but the total inventory has reached a new high and has been accumulating for 6 consecutive weeks. The supply has increased significantly, and the terminal demand has both positive and negative factors. The main contract is difficult to decline deeply but is also restricted by high inventory [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It will operate at a high level in the short term, with the range of [65,500 - 67,500] yuan/ton [15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The steel market sentiment has slightly decreased, and it is expected to operate within a range [3]. - The iron ore fundamentals are weakening, and the price may face pressure [7]. - The coke market sentiment has slightly decreased, and it is expected to operate within a range [10]. - The coking coal sentiment has slightly decreased, and it is expected to operate within a range [14]. - The ferroalloy supply - demand contradiction is limited, and it is expected to operate within a range [18]. Group 3: Summaries by Variety Steel (including rebar and hot - rolled coil) - **Rebar**: The urban work conference was bearish as it didn't release stimulus signals and confirmed the end of the real - estate incremental era. Production and apparent demand decreased month - on - month, with total inventory slightly down, showing obvious off - season characteristics. The transaction logic has shifted from industrial to macro - sentiment and policy - expectation logic, and it will operate within the range of [3090, 3130] [1][4][5]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Production and apparent demand decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory changed little. The supply - demand is relatively balanced with limited fundamental contradictions. After the urban work conference, market sentiment declined, but later political bureau meetings may provide stimulus. It will operate within the range of [3230, 3270] [1][5]. Iron Ore - The demand side shows a decline in hot - metal production, which is expected to continue to decline slowly. The supply side has an increase in both arrivals and shipments, with more shipments to come. The overall supply - demand structure is neutral - weak. The urban meeting was below expectations, and the short - term market may return to fundamental trading. Short - term observation is recommended, and short positions can be arranged in the medium term. The price range is [750, 780] [1][8][9]. Coke - The first round of spot price increase occurred, and coking profit slightly improved. The fundamentals changed little. Independent coking enterprise production declined recently, but steel - mill coking production remained high. High hot - metal production guaranteed raw - material demand. Total inventory decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level. Market sentiment cooled slightly, and it will operate within the range of [1490, 1520] [1][12][13]. Coking Coal - Domestic coking coal production recently decreased, and the absolute level is close to that of last year. Some shut - down mines will resume production in July, increasing supply later. Upstream inventory decreased month - on - month, and spot trading improved. Market sentiment improved overall. Short - term macro - expectations cooled slightly, and it will operate within the range of [890, 920] [1][16][17]. Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon) - **Ferromanganese**: The fundamentals show increasing supply and decreasing demand, and inventory pressure is not significantly relieved. Manganese ore currently supports the price, but electricity costs in many production areas have decreased, and some mines' far - month quotes have slightly dropped, so there is an expectation of cost loosening. Although hot - metal production is at a high level, actual demand may decline in the off - season. Short - term trading is sentiment - driven, and attention should be paid to the 6000 yuan/ton mark. The price range is [5690, 5880] [1][20][21]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The fundamentals show a decline in both supply and demand. After the reduction of power prices in production areas, the cost line has further decreased. Factory inventory is relatively high, and some factories plan to resume production, while the downstream off - season has arrived, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction. Short - term trading is sentiment - driven, with limited supply - demand contradictions, and it is expected to operate within the range of [5400, 5590] [1][20][21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - PX: Bearish [1] - PTA/PR: Bearish on rebound [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Buy on pullback [2] - Soda ash: Narrow - range sideways [2] - Caustic soda: Uptrend slowing [2] - Methanol: Bearish on rebound [2] - Urea: Bearish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Weak sideways [2] Core Views - Crude oil: Supply pressure is rising, and oil prices are under pressure due to OPEC+ expansion [1][3][5] - LPG: Cost - end drag from falling oil prices leads to weakness [7][9] - L: Cost support weakens, and it shows a weak sideways trend [11][12] - PP: Cost support fades, with a weak sideways trend due to factors like new capacity [15][17] - PVC: Market sentiment weakens, with a short - term long and long - term short strategy [19][21] - PX: Tight supply - demand balance vs. falling oil prices, with a bearish sideways trend [23][24] - PTA/PR: Supply - demand expected to be loose, with attention on shorting opportunities on rallies [25][26] - Ethylene glycol: Low port inventory vs. loose supply - demand expectations, focus on shorting opportunities [28][29] - Glass: Inventory continues to decline, supported by moving averages [32][33] - Soda ash: Difficult inventory reduction, weak rebound in the futures market [34][36] - Caustic soda: Liquid chlorine subsidy narrows, and the uptrend slows [37][39] - Methanol: Device maintenance vs. MTO demand negative feedback, bearish on rebound [40] - Urea: Supply pressure is large, with a bearish outlook [2] - Asphalt: Cost - end oil price decline and sufficient raw materials lead to a bearish outlook [2] - Propylene: Cost support weakens, and supply is under pressure [2] Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market situation**: International oil prices fell overnight. WTI dropped 2.40%, Brent 0.72%, and SC 0.51% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In supply, Russian exports decreased, and US rig count dropped. In demand, China's imports increased, and IEA adjusted demand growth forecasts. In inventory, US commercial crude inventory rose [5]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, light - position shorting with call option protection. Long - term, the price range is expected to be $60 - 70/barrel [6]. LPG - **Market situation**: On July 15, PG main contract closed at 4160 yuan/ton, down 0.53% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost - end oil price pressure, supply is relatively sufficient, and demand is in the off - season. PDH device profit decreased, and inventories increased [9]. - **Strategy**: Light - position shorting, with a focus on the range of 4050 - 4150 yuan/ton [10]. L - **Market situation**: Futures and spot prices both declined. North China basis was - 71 (compared to - 33 previously) [12]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost support weakens, supply pressure increases, and demand is in the off - season. New device production is expected in July - August [13]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long and long - term short, with a focus on the range of 7150 - 7300 yuan/ton [14]. PP - **Market situation**: East China basis was 42 (compared to - 7 previously). The market is expected to be weak [16]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost support fades, new capacity is planned in the third quarter, and exports are expected to maintain high growth [17]. - **Strategy**: Bearish on rebound, with a focus on the range of 6950 - 7150 yuan/ton [17]. PVC - **Market situation**: Changzhou basis was - 125 (compared to + 35 previously). The market is expected to be weak [20]. - **Fundamentals**: Upward drive is insufficient, inventory is rising, and exports are weakening. New devices are starting up [21]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long and long - term short, with a focus on the range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton [21]. PX - **Market situation**: On July 11, East China spot was 7120 yuan/ton, and PX09 closed at 6694 yuan/ton [23]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, inventory is high, and it follows cost fluctuations [24]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies, with a focus on the range of 6660 - 6760 yuan/ton [24]. PTA - **Market situation**: On July 11, East China was 4715 yuan/ton, and TA09 closed at 4700 yuan/ton [25]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, downstream demand is weakening, and inventory is decreasing [26]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies, with a focus on the range of 4670 - 4730 yuan/ton [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market situation**: On July 11, East China spot was 4383 yuan/ton, and EG09 closed at 4305 yuan/ton [28]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to be loose, demand is weakening, and low inventory provides some support [29]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities, with a focus on the range of 4270 - 4340 yuan/ton [30]. Glass - **Market situation**: Spot prices increased, and the futures market pulled back. Basis widened [33]. - **Fundamentals**: Macro - policy expectations, inventory decreased, and cost increased. Spot prices were raised [33]. - **Strategy**: Buy on pullback, with a focus on the range of 1050 - 1080 yuan/ton [33]. Soda Ash - **Market situation**: Heavy - alkali spot prices were stable, and the futures market declined. Basis widened [35]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is at a high level, inventory reduction is difficult, and policy speculation has weakened [36]. - **Strategy**: Narrow - range sideways, with a focus on the range of 1200 - 1230 yuan/ton [2]. Caustic Soda - **Market situation**: Spot prices were stable, the futures market was flat, basis strengthened, and warehouse receipts decreased [38]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure may ease, demand from alumina is recovering, and inventory decreased [39]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions cautiously, with a focus on the range of 2480 - 2530 yuan/ton [39]. Methanol - **Market situation**: On July 11, East China spot was 2381 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 2370 yuan/ton [40]. - **Fundamentals**: Device maintenance vs. MTO demand negative feedback, and inventory may start to accumulate [40]. - **Strategy**: Bearish on rebound, with a focus on the range of 2365 - 2400 yuan/ton [2]. Urea - **Market situation**: Supply pressure is large, and demand is weak. Exports are growing [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is high, industrial and agricultural demand is weak, and cost provides some support [2]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies, with a focus on the range of 1735 - 1765 yuan/ton [2]. Asphalt - **Market situation**: Cost - end oil price pressure, supply decreased slightly, and inventory increased [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost - end oil price decline, supply is relatively sufficient, and demand is affected by weather [2]. - **Strategy**: Light - position shorting, with a focus on the range of 3550 - 3650 yuan/ton [2]. Propylene - **Market situation**: Cost - end oil price decline, supply is under pressure [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost support weakens, new capacity is about to be put into production [2]. - **Strategy**: Bearish on rebound, with a focus on the range of 6250 - 6400 yuan/ton [2].