Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the off - season, the factory ex - factory price of offset printing paper is lowered, and the market has just - needed transactions. Chenming's resumption of production may lead to an oversupply of supply, with a weak fundamental operation, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Raw material prices are at a relatively low level, and the cost reduction space is limited, but the finished product price is difficult to rise in the off - season, so the production profit is expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner [8][12][14]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Offset Printing Paper Overview - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: In the week of October 17, 2025, Jiulong Paper's Beihai base PM55 high - grade cultural paper production line was successfully put into operation. The production and start - up of double - offset paper increased. The monthly import volume decreased by 0.79 tons compared with the previous month, and the weekly apparent demand increased by 1.7 tons. The monthly export volume decreased by 0.08 tons, and domestic demand decreased by 2.89 tons. Due to the increase in production and stable demand, the inventory is expected to accumulate. For example, the enterprise inventory increased by 1.5 tons [6]. - **Price**: The ex - factory delivery prices of various brands decreased by 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous week, and the market self - pick - up prices of some brands remained unchanged. The disk price of OP2601 decreased by 24, and OP2603 decreased by 18. It is expected that the double - offset paper price will fluctuate or slightly decrease, and the disk will operate weakly [8]. - **Spread and Basis**: The disk spread is low in position, mainly for observation. The basis is expected to remain stable or slightly increase. The disk spread between January and March is expected to remain stable, and the basis of some brands is expected to weaken [10]. - **Cost and Profit**: Raw material prices are at a relatively low level, and it is expected that the cost reduction space is limited. However, the finished product price is difficult to rise in the off - season, so the production profit is expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner. For example, the profit of self - used pulp decreased by 92.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the off - season, the factory ex - factory price is lowered, and the market has just - needed transactions. The disk is expected to operate weakly, and it is recommended to use a light - position short - put strategy or a short - call strategy when it rebounds, while paying attention to risk prevention and control [14]. Part 2: Offset Printing Paper Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the cumulative import volume, production volume, total supply, total demand, and inventory of offset printing paper all showed certain changes. In 2025, the cumulative import volume showed a certain growth rate, while the production volume and total supply decreased year - on - year, and the total demand also decreased slightly. The inventory increased year - on - year in most months [16]. Part 3: Offset Printing Paper Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - Production Situation**: In 2025, many companies have new production capacity put into operation or resume production. For example, Jiulong Paper has multiple production lines put into operation in different locations, and Chenming is expected to resume production of about 900,000 tons of double - offset paper capacity. From 2025 - 2026, some projects are planned to be put into operation, but some are suspended [18]. - **Demand, Inventory, and Import - Export**: No specific analysis content is provided in the given text. Part 4: Offset Printing Paper Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Cost**: The prices of raw materials such as U - needle, Moon, and Goldfish are at a relatively low level, and it is expected that the cost will remain stable or slightly increase [12]. - **Profit**: The production profit is expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner, and the profit of low - cost and high - cost production is expected to remain stable or slightly decrease [12]. Part 5: Offset Printing Paper Price and Spread Analysis - **Spot Quotation**: The ex - factory delivery prices and market self - pick - up prices of various brands of offset printing paper decreased compared with the previous period [8]. - **Spot - Futures Basis and OP Main Contract Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread**: The disk spread is low in position, mainly for observation. The basis is expected to remain stable or slightly increase, and the inter - month spread between January and March is expected to remain stable [10].

中美谈判前，铜价宽幅震荡运行 沪铜周度报告·2025年10月21日 姓名：安冉 从业资格号：F3049294 交易咨询证书号：Z0017020 姓名：王海聪 从业资格号：F03101206 交易咨询证书号：Z0022465 联系人：陈天敏 从业资格号：F03134700 目 录 01 周度综述：宏观/周度数据/多空逻辑/风险提示 02 铜产业链解析：价格/价差/成本/利润/供给/需求/库存 CONTENTS 资金持仓：外盘持仓CFTC/LME 03 数据来源：wind SMM 中泰期货整理 Part 01 周度综述 ➢ 周度综述（10.13-10.17） ➢ 本页数据为2025.10.13-2025.10.17日期内周度数据对比 | | 项目 | | | | | 周度数据 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 上期 | 当期 | 环比 | 环比率 | 综述 | | | 铜精矿现货TC（美元/ | -40.36 | -40.97 | -0.61 | -1.51% | 周内铜精矿市场成交较为冷清 ，TC小幅回落 后续重点关注11月长单谈判的结果 。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report provides a rating table for different commodities, categorizing them as bearish, neutral, or bullish. For example, palm oil, soybeans, and gold are rated bearish; rubber, hot-rolled coils, and rapeseed oil are rated neutral; and rapeseed meal, aluminum, and soybean meal are rated bullish [6]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as macroeconomic data, trade tensions, and policy changes. The report suggests different trading strategies for various commodities based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment [13][15][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee started on October 20. China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8%, and industrial production exceeded expectations. The 70 - city housing prices showed a mixed trend, with most cities having a decline in the secondary - housing market and a narrowing year - on - year decline in new - housing prices. The 10 - month LPR remained unchanged. The US and Australia signed a rare - earth and key - mineral agreement, and there are developments in the US government shutdown and international trade tensions [8][9][10]. 3.2 Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Consider a strategy of buying on dips and focus on index rotation. Although the market rebounded due to improved risk appetite, trading volume was weak. The macro - economic situation showed a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, and it is expected that monetary policy may be further loosened in the fourth quarter [13]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Adopt a strategy of expecting a slow rise and pay attention to the odds of short - term bonds. The market was affected by risk - appetite changes and interest - rate cut expectations. The overall economic situation is similar to that of stock index futures, with a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [15]. 3.3 Black Commodities - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel may experience a shock adjustment, and iron - ore short positions can be reduced on dips. The market is affected by factors such as trade frictions, supply - demand fundamentals, and cost. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is relatively good. Steel mills' profits are low, and iron - ore prices are volatile [17][18]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Supply is gradually recovering, but there are still expectations of production restrictions and safety inspections. The demand from downstream steel mills is relatively strong, but the weak profit of steel mills restricts the upward space [19][20]. - **Ferroalloys**: Silicon iron is stronger than manganese silicon from the perspective of supply - demand and cost. The reasonable valuation range of the spread between the two is between - 450 and - 250 yuan/ton. There is no recommended unilateral strategy for now [21]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, hold a bearish view or take short - term profits. For glass, adopt a wait - and - see approach. Soda - ash supply is at a high level, and the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve. Glass is affected by the market confidence and the demand in the peak season [22]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Alumina is expected to continue to decline, and it is advisable to short on rallies when the futures price is at a premium [24]. - **Zinc**: Hold short positions. Domestic zinc inventories have increased, and the market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and inventory changes [24]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It will mainly fluctuate in the short term. Supply is increasing, and demand is relatively strong in the short term. The impact of export controls on short - term demand is limited [26]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It will fluctuate weakly in a range. Although coal prices provide cost support, the supply - demand situation is weak due to the resumption of production by large enterprises and the expected reduction of production by polysilicon enterprises in the dry season [27]. - **Polysilicon**: It will continue to fluctuate narrowly in a range. The spot price provides support, and the upper limit depends on the implementation of capacity - merger policies [28]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. The market is affected by trade tensions and the US government shutdown [30]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar supply is abundant, but the cost provides support. Consider a short - rolling strategy or a wait - and - see approach. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus [32][33]. - **Eggs**: Short near - month contracts on rallies. The supply of eggs is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. The process of reducing production capacity is slow [35]. - **Apples**: The price will fluctuate. The price in the western region is firm, and the market is affected by factors such as the listing volume [37]. - **Corn**: Sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract. The new - season corn supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure, but low inventory and some purchasing support the price [38]. - **Red Dates**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The market price is stable, and the consumption is weak, but the opening - price expectation is high [39]. - **Pigs**: Short the LH2601 contract on rallies. The supply pressure continues, but there are some factors supporting the price at the bottom [39][40]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Hold existing short positions. The supply - demand situation is bearish, with increasing supply and weakening demand. The price may have a small - scale repair before the Sino - US summit [42]. - **Fuel Oil**: Its price will follow the trend of crude oil. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is affected by geopolitical risks and macro - economic expectations [44]. - **Plastics**: It will fluctuate weakly. The supply pressure is large, but the current price is relatively low, so it is advisable to reduce short positions and wait for a rebound to short again [45]. - **Rubber**: It will mainly fluctuate. Consider a double - selling strategy in the short term. The inventory is decreasing, and the price is affected by factors such as raw - material supply and international macro - situation [46]. - **Methanol**: Adopt a weakly - fluctuating strategy and wait for a rebound to go long in small amounts. The market is affected by factors such as the arrival of Iranian goods [47]. - **Caustic Soda**: Adopt a fluctuating strategy. The price is affected by factors such as the price of caustic soda and liquid chlorine, and the demand from the alumina industry [48]. - **Asphalt**: Its price will follow the trend of crude oil. The current demand is in the peak season, and the production and inventory situation is normal [49]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The products in the polyester industry chain will continue to fluctuate weakly. The supply - demand situation of each product is different, but they are all affected by factors such as oil prices and new - device commissioning [50]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: It will be bearish in the long term. Although it is strong in the short term, the supply is abundant, and the demand is expected to weaken [51]. 3.7 Paper and Wood Products - **Offset Printing Paper**: It will fluctuate weakly. The supply may be excessive due to the resumption of production by Chenming during the off - season [52]. - **Paper Pulp**: Observe the de - stocking situation at ports and spot transactions. If the spot price is stable, consider going long on the far - month 01 contract [54]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weakly fluctuating. Consider going long on the 01 contract on dips, and focus on downstream demand and freight - related factors [55]. 3.8 Others - **Urea**: Adopt a fluctuating strategy. Pay attention to the impact of cost factors on futures prices, and the supply - demand situation remains weak [56]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It will fluctuate, and be cautious about chasing the rise. The downstream procurement is weak, and the price is under pressure [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall economic situation shows a stable and slightly upward trend, but there are still uncertainties. Fiscal policy may enter a bottleneck period, and there is a strong need for monetary policy to be further loosened in the fourth quarter. - Different industries have different market trends and investment opportunities. For example, in the black industry, steel may experience shock adjustments, while coal and coke may continue to be shock - strong in the short term; in the agricultural product industry, cotton and sugar face supply - side pressure, while eggs have a high - inventory and weak - demand situation. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - On October 18, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call and agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [8]. - The State Council executive meeting deployed measures to expand green trade and studied agricultural production work, and proposed to promote cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement in logistics [8]. - The opening ceremony of the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference is scheduled for October 27, with central bank and regulatory leaders attending and relevant policies to be released [8]. - In the first three quarters, national fiscal revenue was 16.39 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%, and fiscal expenditure was 20.81 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [8]. - The Ministry of Finance will arrange 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit for local use and will advance the release of the new local government debt limit for 2026 [9]. - NVIDIA has completely left the Chinese market due to US export controls [9]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the price limit and margin ratio of gold and silver futures contracts from October 21 [9]. - US President Trump admitted that the strategy of threatening China with high tariffs is unsustainable and may impact the US economy [9]. - Trump signed an executive order to impose new tariffs on imported medium and heavy - duty trucks and parts from November 1 [10]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market declined on Friday, with popular sectors such as new energy and AI performing weakly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.95% to 3839.76 points, and the daily trading volume was 1.95 trillion yuan. The CSI 300, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index also declined [12]. - Inflation data was basically in line with expectations. Food prices dragged down CPI, with pork prices dropping 17.0%. Core CPI rose to 1.0%. PPI improvement was unbalanced, and domestic oil - related industries' prices declined due to falling international oil prices [12]. - Financial data showed that social financing continued to decline, M2 decreased significantly, while M1 increased substantially, and credit was weak. Fiscal policy may face a bottleneck, and there is a strong need for monetary policy to be loosened in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to consider buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation [12][13]. Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market was moderately loose, and the bond market was optimistic due to concerns about the US credit market. Inflation and financial data were similar to those of stock index futures. It is recommended to adopt a shock - rising strategy and pay attention to the odds of short - term bonds [14][15]. Black Industry Steel and Iron Ore - The improvement in steel apparent demand led to a small rebound in black commodities, but market transactions were weak, and prices remained weak. Considering macro factors, trade frictions may cool down, and the impact of policies before the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is limited. The market should focus on supply - demand fundamentals [15]. - In terms of supply - demand, real - estate sales and new construction were weak, infrastructure projects had capital pressure, and overall building material demand was weak. However, the demand for rolled plates was acceptable, but high inventories of galvanized and cold - rolled products affected steel valuations. Steel may experience shock adjustments, and iron ore short positions can be reduced on dips [15][16]. Coal and Coke - Short - term coal and coke supply gradually recovered, but "anti - involution" and environmental protection restrictions still existed, and futures prices continued to fluctuate at high levels. Under policy constraints, coal supply contraction expectations were strengthened, but weak steel mill profits and less - than - ideal peak - season demand restricted the upward space. Double - coke prices may continue to be shock - strong in the short term [17]. Ferroalloys - On the 17th, ferrosilicon fluctuated widely at high levels, and ferromanganese silicon's center moved further down. From the perspective of supply - demand and cost support, ferrosilicon was stronger than ferromanganese silicon. The reasonable valuation range of the 01 spread between the two was between - 450 and - 250 yuan/ton. There is no clear unilateral strategy [18]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Due to the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, market risk aversion increased. Aluminum demand was resilient, and inventory was good. It is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate at high levels, and it is recommended to sell on rallies. Alumina had some production cuts due to losses, but the total output and inventory were still high. It is expected to continue to bottom out, and it is recommended to sell on rallies when the futures price is at a premium [21]. Shanghai Zinc - On the night of the 17th, Shanghai zinc prices weakened. The main reasons were repeated domestic inventories and lack of market guidance, and spot transactions were poor. Overseas prices were strong due to the continuous decline of LME inventories. It is recommended to hold short positions [22]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate supply showed an increasing trend, and short - term destocking supported prices. However, the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, and it will mainly oscillate in the short term [23]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon's supply - demand contradiction was not prominent. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range due to the expected increase in production by leading manufacturers and the expected reduction in production by polysilicon manufacturers during the dry season. Polysilicon's spot price was firm, and it is expected to continue to oscillate within a narrow range, with the upper limit depending on the implementation of capacity - merger policies [24]. Agricultural Products Cotton - ICE cotton prices rebounded slightly due to signs of easing trade tensions, but demand concerns still existed due to the US government shutdown. Domestic cotton prices rebounded due to rising raw cotton prices, but supply pressure limited the rebound space. It is recommended to sell on rallies [26][27]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar prices fell under pressure, and domestic sugar prices were under pressure due to global sugar supply surplus and increased domestic imports. However, the cost provided some support. It is recommended to use a short - selling rolling strategy [27][28]. Eggs - Egg spot prices were stable and weak, and futures prices continued to decline slightly. The high inventory of laying hens and slow capacity reduction made it difficult to change the supply - demand pattern in the short term. It is recommended to sell on rallies for near - month contracts [29][30]. Apples - The prices of late - maturing Fuji apples in the eastern and western regions were stable, and the futures market oscillated strongly. It is expected to continue to oscillate [30][31]. Corn - The decline in domestic corn spot prices slowed down, and futures prices rose and then fell. New - season corn supply increased, putting pressure on prices. However, purchases by some state - owned grain depots may support prices. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 07 contract or sell out - of - the - money call options for the 01 contract [31][32]. Red Dates - The market price of red dates was stable, and the futures market showed a strong trend. It is recommended to wait and see [33]. Pigs - Pig prices fluctuated at the bottom. Supply pressure continued, but factors stabilizing prices increased. It is recommended to hold short positions in near - month contracts and pay attention to the 1 - 3 positive spread strategy [34]. Energy and Chemical Industry Crude Oil - Although the Russia - Ukraine situation may ease, geopolitical uncertainties still exist, and international oil prices rose. However, due to increasing supply and weakening demand, oil prices are expected to decline steadily. It is recommended to hold existing short positions [34][35]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices fluctuated with crude oil prices. The supply was loose, and the demand was weak. It is expected to continue to fluctuate with oil prices [36][37]. Plastics - Polyolefins had high supply pressure and weak demand. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to reduce short positions at the current low - valuation level and wait for a rebound to re - enter short positions [38]. Rubber - The international economic outlook was uncertain, and the commodity sector was weak. NR was relatively stronger than RU due to warehouse - receipt issues. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up and consider selling call options on RU after a rebound [39]. Methanol - Methanol prices fluctuated greatly due to the game around the arrival of Iranian goods. Although the current situation is weak, there are positive factors such as winter gas restrictions. It is recommended to adopt a weak - shock strategy and wait for a rebound to enter long positions [40][42]. Caustic Soda - In the spot market, the prices of different concentrations of caustic soda in Shandong changed differently, and the futures market declined due to rumors of alumina production cuts. It is recommended to maintain a shock - strong strategy [40][41]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices fluctuated with crude oil prices. The market was cautious due to uncertainties before the Sino - US summit. Asphalt's fundamentals were stable, and it is expected to follow oil prices [43]. Polyester Industry Chain - Polyester product prices declined due to rising Sino - US trade tensions and falling oil prices. Although trade tensions may ease, the supply - demand situation has not improved. It is expected to rebound in the short term but remain pessimistic in the long term [44]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG prices declined. The supply was abundant, and the demand was expected to weaken. It is recommended to maintain a short - term weak strategy relative to crude oil and a long - term short strategy [45]. Paper - related Industries Offset Printing Paper - In the off - season, factory ex - factory prices were lowered, and market transactions were based on rigid demand. With the resumption of production by Chenming, supply may be excessive, but the low - valuation futures market may support prices. It is recommended to try long positions near the production cost or sell put options [46]. Pulp - Pulp spot prices were stable. European inventory increased, and consumption also changed. The futures market was under pressure but had some support. It is recommended to observe port destocking and spot transactions and consider buying long - term 01 contracts on dips [47]. Logs - Log spot prices were stable, but demand from sawmills was weak. Supply pressure increased due to expected concentrated arrivals. It is recommended to observe the market and be cautious when trading [48]. Other Industries Urea - Urea spot prices were stable, and the market was weak. Futures prices were relatively strong due to expectations of increased export quotas. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [49]. Synthetic Rubber - The inventory of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber increased, and prices were under pressure. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [50].

黑色供应周报-铁合金 2025年10月17日 中泰期货研究所 黑色分析师:董雪珊 本相告所载的资料、观点及预测均反映了本公司在最初发布该报告当日分析师的判断、是基于本公司分析师认为可靠且已公开的信息，本公司力求但不探证 这些信息的挺确性和完整性,也不保证文中观点或陈述不会发生任何变更,在不同时期,本公司可在不发出通知的情况下发出与本报告所载资料、意见政推 测不一致的报告，亦可因使用不同假设和标准、采用不同观点和分析方法而与本公司其他业务部门、单位或附属机构在制作类似的其他材料时所给出的意见 不同或者相反。本公司并不承担提示本报告的收件人注意该等材料的 责任。 14 20 18 13 16 12 14 11 12 10 10 8 y 6 4 2 下载 8 下午餐早餐加盟 早餐早餐店加盟 早餐早餐加盟 早餐早餐加盟 早餐早餐加盟 早餐 累计同比(右轴) 2023 -2021 2022 2024 ·2025 累计同比(右轴) 2022 2024 -2021 - 2023 2025 内蒙古-硅锰日均产量:万吨 内蒙古-硅铁日均产量:万吨 1.60 0.65 1.50 0.60 1.40 0.55 1.30 0.50 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a shrinking volume and oscillating trend on Thursday, with inflation data basically in line with expectations. Fiscal policy may enter a bottleneck period, and there is a strong necessity for an increase in monetary policy in the fourth quarter [6]. - The steel market is expected to oscillate or experience a "golden nine, silver ten" season without a peak. The supply and demand of steel are imbalanced, with weak downstream demand and high inventory in some varieties [10]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, cost, and macro - policies. Different commodities have different trends and investment strategies [3][6][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. The A - share market was in a shrinking volume and oscillating state on Thursday. Inflation data was basically in line with expectations, and fiscal policy may face a bottleneck, while the necessity of increasing monetary policy in the fourth quarter is strong [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Adopt an oscillating strategy and pay attention to the odds of short - term bonds [7]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market may oscillate or experience a "golden nine, silver ten" season without a peak. The downstream demand for steel is weak, and the inventory of some varieties is high. Iron ore can hold short positions or reduce positions on dips [10][11]. - **Coal and Coke**: The prices of coal and coke are expected to oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to the demand of finished products during the "golden nine, silver ten" period [12]. - **Ferroalloys**: From the perspective of supply and demand, silicon alloys are in a medium - long - term short - biased logic, but from the cost - profit perspective, they are in a low - valuation range. Consider buying on dips [13]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, maintain a short - biased view and wait for the actual progress of new production capacity. For glass, adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the improvement of peak - season demand and other factors [16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to sell on rallies. Alumina prices are expected to continue to decline, and it is advisable to sell on rallies [18]. - **Zinc**: Hold short positions. The domestic zinc market has weak spot trading, and the price may follow the external market [18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the supply increasing and the demand supporting the price [20]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range. Consider selling call options [21]. - **Polysilicon**: It will continue to oscillate within a narrow range. Pay attention to the progress of the industry meeting [22]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies due to increasing supply pressure and weak demand [24]. - **Sugar**: The end - of - season inventory data is bearish, and the supply is expected to increase. Adopt a short - selling strategy with rolling operations [26]. - **Eggs**: The supply and demand of eggs are in a loose state. Adopt a short - biased strategy for near - term contracts and pay attention to spot price changes [27]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the impact of rainfall on the quality of new - season apples [29]. - **Corn**: Consider buying the 07 contract on dips or selling out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract. Pay attention to the supply pressure and the purchase of state - owned grain depots [29]. - **Jujubes**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy. Pay attention to the price game between buyers and sellers and the procurement progress [31]. - **Hogs**: Hold short positions in near - term contracts and consider the 1 - 3 positive spread strategy [31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The supply exceeds demand, and the price center is moving down. Hold existing short positions and expect price recovery in the future [34]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price will follow the oil price, with a loose supply - demand structure [35]. - **Plastic**: It is expected to oscillate weakly. Wait for a rebound to go short [36]. - **Methanol**: The market is volatile. Wait for a rebound to go long in small quantities [38]. - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price is expected to oscillate due to the short - term strength of the fundamentals and the weakness of alumina [39]. - **Asphalt**: The price follows the oil price, and the actual demand is weak during the peak season [40]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The supply is abundant, and a long - term short - biased view is maintained [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: Observe the de - stocking of ports and spot transactions. Consider buying the 01 contract on dips [45]. - **Urea**: Adopt an oscillating strategy and pay attention to changes in cost and supply [46]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The fundamentals are not substantially strengthened, and it is expected to oscillate weakly following the cost [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For stock index futures, consider a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. It is believed that fiscal policy may reach a bottleneck, and there is a strong need for monetary policy to be further loosened in the fourth quarter [12][13]. - For treasury bond futures, it is also considered that fiscal policy may reach a bottleneck, and monetary policy is likely to be further loosened. The market is slightly pressured as the stock market rises with shrinking trading volume [14]. - In the black market, steel may experience shock adjustments, and it is recommended to hold short positions in iron ore or reduce positions on dips. The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate in the short - term. For ferroalloys, it is recommended to close out short positions on dips and consider going long on dips [16][17][18]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials market, aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies; alumina is expected to continue to seek a bottom, and it is advisable to short on rallies. Carbonate lithium will mainly fluctuate, and industrial silicon will fluctuate weakly in a range [23][26][27]. - In the agricultural products market, for cotton, adopt a short - on - rallies strategy; for sugar, consider short - term short operations or stay on the sidelines; for eggs, short on rallies for near - month contracts; for apples, go long on dips; for corn, buy the 07 contract on dips or sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract; for red dates, stay on the sidelines; for live pigs, hold short positions in near - month contracts and pay attention to the 1 - 3 positive spread strategy [30][32][34]. - In the energy and chemical market, for crude oil, hold existing short positions; for fuel oil, its price follows that of crude oil; for plastics, expect a weak and narrow - range fluctuation; for rubber, it may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and consider short - selling call options after a rebound; for methanol, wait for a rebound to go long; for caustic soda, expect price fluctuations; for asphalt, it follows the price of crude oil; for liquefied petroleum gas, maintain a bearish view in the long - term [41][42][51]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The US threatens to impose 100% tariffs on China, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry urges the US to correct its wrong actions. China opposes the EU's protectionist and discriminatory practices [8]. - China has achieved key breakthroughs in high - end electronic measurement instruments and filled the gap in high - end electronic design industrial software [8]. - In September 2025, China's CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and fell 0.3% year - on - year, while the core CPI rose 1% year - on - year. PPI remained flat month - on - month and fell 2.3% year - on - year [8]. - In September 2025, China's M2 increased 8.4% year - on - year, M1 increased 7.2% year - on - year, and the "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 reached a new low for the year. The increase in RMB loans in the first three quarters was 14.75 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan [9]. - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that economic activity has changed little, consumer spending has declined slightly, and employment has remained stable. A Fed official suggests that the Fed should cut interest rates twice this year [10]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - On Wednesday, the A - share market rebounded with shrinking trading volume. The inflation data was in line with expectations, with food and energy prices dragging down CPI. Core CPI continued to rise. PPI improvement was unbalanced, and financial data showed a decline in social financing and M2, while M1 increased significantly [12]. - It is recommended to continue the strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation [12]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The market is slightly pressured as the stock market rises with shrinking trading volume. The inflation data is in line with expectations, and financial data shows a decline in social financing and M2, while M1 increases significantly [14]. - It is believed that fiscal policy may reach a bottleneck, and there is a strong need for monetary policy to be further loosened in the fourth quarter [14]. 3.4 Black Market 3.4.1 Steel - From a macro perspective, Sino - US trade frictions have a negative impact on sentiment, but the impact on actual supply and demand is expected to be small. The market should focus on supply - demand fundamentals [16]. - During the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the real demand for steel downstream has improved limitedly, and the inventory of some varieties is high, which may lead to a shock or off - peak market [16]. - Steel may experience shock adjustments, and it is recommended to hold short positions in iron ore or reduce positions on dips [17]. 3.4.2 Coking Coal and Coke - In the short - term, the prices of coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate. The supply of coking coal and coke is gradually recovering, but there are still expectations of "anti - involution" and environmental protection restrictions [18]. - In the medium - term, the resumption of coking coal supply is hindered. The demand from steel mills for coking coal and coke is strong, but the current inventory level of downstream coking coal and coke is high, and the short - term demand support is weak [18]. 3.4.3 Ferroalloys - The cost of ferrosilicon may decline slightly in the fourth quarter, and the cost support of silicomanganese is stronger than that of ferrosilicon. It is recommended to close out short positions on dips and consider going long on dips [20]. - The price of ferrosilicon rose significantly during the day but then fell back, mainly due to the influence of the increase in thermal coal prices on sentiment [20]. 3.4.4 Soda Ash and Glass - The soda ash and glass industry chain is operating weakly. It is recommended to hold a bearish view on soda ash or take profits in the short - term, and stay on the sidelines for glass [21]. - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and the new production capacity of leading enterprises is expected to be postponed. The supply of glass is affected by the decline in the market, and the inventory of the middle - stream is high [21]. 3.5 Non - Ferrous and New Materials Market 3.5.1 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Alumina is expected to continue to seek a bottom, and it is advisable to short on rallies [23]. - The inventory of aluminum is decreasing, and the spot premium is rising. The supply of alumina is in a state of high - opening and high - supply, and the inventory is increasing [23]. 3.5.2 Zinc - The spot trading of zinc in the three major domestic markets is weak, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to hold short positions [24]. - The price of zinc is affected by trade disputes and weak demand. The domestic and overseas markets have different operating logics, and there are signs of a resonance decline in global zinc prices [25]. 3.5.3 Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium will mainly fluctuate. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in a state of de - stocking, which supports the current price [26]. - The impact of lithium battery export controls on short - term demand is limited, and the high level of warehouse receipts has limited impact on prices [26]. 3.5.4 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon will fluctuate weakly in a range, and it is advisable to sell call options. The recent decline in the price is mainly due to the expected weakening of supply and demand [27]. - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase in October, but there is also an expected decline in inventory due to the dry season in the southwest, resulting in a loose balance of supply and demand [27]. 3.5.5 Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is firm, which supports the lower space of the futures price. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range [28]. - The market was affected by rumors of a new cost benchmark for polysilicon on October 15, and the price rebounded due to valuation correction [28]. 3.6 Agricultural Products Market 3.6.1 Cotton - Adopt a short - on - rallies strategy. The upstream - downstream game is complex, with increasing supply pressure and weak demand [30]. - The price of domestic cotton is affected by the international market and the increase in supply, and the demand is uncertain [30][31]. 3.6.2 Sugar - Consider short - term short operations or stay on the sidelines. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus, and the domestic sugar supply is under pressure [32]. - The price of sugar is affected by supply and cost factors, and the new sugar production is expected to increase [32][33]. 3.6.3 Eggs - Short on rallies for near - month contracts. The inventory of laying hens is high, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in a loose supply - demand situation [34]. - The spot price of eggs has rebounded slightly, and the price may be affected by vegetable prices [34]. 3.6.4 Apples - Go long on dips. The late - maturing Fuji apples in the eastern and western regions are gradually on the market, and the price in the western region is firm [36]. - Pay attention to the impact of continuous rainfall on the quality of new - season apples [36]. 3.6.5 Corn - Buy the 07 contract on dips or sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract. The spot price of corn is weak, and the new - season supply is increasing [37]. - The price of corn may be supported by the purchase of the central reserve, and attention should be paid to the harvest and grain quality in North China and the selling intention of farmers [37][38]. 3.6.6 Red Dates - Stay on the sidelines. The market price of red dates is stable, and the consumption is poor, but the opening price is expected to be high [39]. - Pay attention to the opening price of new - season red dates [39]. 3.6.7 Live Pigs - Hold short positions in near - month contracts and pay attention to the 1 - 3 positive spread strategy. The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand after the double festivals [39]. - The supply of live pigs is sufficient, and the demand is weak after the festivals, which drags down the price [39]. 3.7 Energy and Chemical Market 3.7.1 Crude Oil - Hold existing short positions. The supply of crude oil is increasing, and the demand is weakening, resulting in a downward trend in the price [41]. - The price of crude oil is affected by API inventory, trade wars, and geopolitical risks, and there may be a price repair in the future [41]. 3.7.2 Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil follows that of crude oil. The supply - demand structure of fuel oil is loose, and the demand is flat [42]. - The price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and weak macro - expectations, and the price of fuel oil is also affected [42]. 3.7.3 Plastics - Expect a weak and narrow - range fluctuation. The supply pressure of polyolefins is large, and the demand is weak [43]. - It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short, as the current price is slightly low [43]. 3.7.4 Rubber - It may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and consider short - selling call options after a rebound. The supply is expected to increase, but it is affected by the NR near - month contract [44]. - The price of rubber is affected by the Fed's interest rate cut signal and the cancellation of NR warehouse receipts [44]. 3.7.5 Methanol - Wait for a rebound to go long. The main contradiction of methanol is the high inventory pressure in ports, and there are also factors such as the impact of winter gas restrictions on production [45]. - The price of methanol is affected by the arrival of Iranian goods in ports, and attention should be paid to the inventory removal process [45]. 3.7.6 Caustic Soda - The price of caustic soda futures is expected to fluctuate. The short - term strength of the fundamentals and the weakness of alumina affect the price [46]. - The spot price of caustic soda has changed, and the price of alumina and liquid chlorine also has an impact on the futures price [46]. 3.7.7 Asphalt - Asphalt follows the price of crude oil. The price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and weak macro - expectations [47]. - The spot price of asphalt has declined, and the demand is in the peak season. Attention should be paid to the inventory removal speed in October [48]. 3.7.8 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Maintain a bearish view in the long - term. The supply of LPG is abundant, and the demand is difficult to strengthen beyond expectations [51]. - The price of LPG is affected by trade wars, OPEC+ production increases, and the peak season for blending oil is over [51]. 3.7.9 Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate weakly. The overall fundamentals lack a clear driving force [50]. - The supply and demand of PX are relatively stable, the supply of PTA increases, and the far - month inventory of ethylene glycol is expected to increase [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side is under significant pressure as the arrival of imported logs is expected to increase in October, which is a peak season for imports, and subsequent arrivals are likely to be concentrated [7]. - The demand in the spot market shows mixed performance, with better sales of knot - free and integrated timber, but relatively low orders from sawmills and no large - scale orders. Short - term observation of terminal orders is recommended [9]. - The fundamentals of the market are weakly volatile, and the downstream demand is stable. As the delivery month of November approaches, the long - short game in the futures market is volatile, and long - position holders are reducing their positions. Short - term observation and cautious operation are advised [17]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Part 1: Log Overview 1.1 Supply - side - Foreign supply indicators such as the number of arriving ships, arrival volume, and imports of various types of logs show changes. For example, the imports of coniferous logs, radiata pine, and other types have decreased compared to the previous period. The arrival of ships is expected to increase this week, and overall, October is a peak import season, with subsequent arrivals likely to be concentrated, leading to obvious pressure on the supply side [7]. 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - The weekly shipment volume has decreased slightly compared to the previous period. The shipments of knot - free and integrated timber in the spot market are relatively better, while sawmill orders are low. - Inventory has increased slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate and accumulate under the situation of stable demand and increased arrivals [9]. 1.3 Price and Spread - **Outer - market quotes**: The outer - market price of New Zealand radiata pine in October is expected to increase slightly, but as the blue - stain period approaches, the domestic bargaining power will increase, and the outer - market price support may not be sustainable. - **Spot prices**: The spot prices are relatively stable as the peak season approaches, and traders are more willing to support prices. The prices of knot - free and sawed timber are polarized, and the downstream acceptance is limited in the short term, so prices are expected to remain stable. - **Futures prices**: The fundamentals are weakly volatile, and as the delivery month approaches, the long - short game is intense, with long - position holders reducing their positions. - **Spreads**: The spot spreads are relatively stable, mainly reflected in integrated and sawed timber. The basis can be considered at the level of 5.9m medium - grade A radiata pine [11][13]. 1.4 Cost and Profit - The import cost has increased slightly, and the import profit has decreased. As the off - season approaches, the outer - market quotes are difficult to sustain, and the import cost is expected to return to normal [15]. 1.5 Strategy Recommendation - For the industrial chain, the spot market is stable, but sawmill orders are low. The supply side is under pressure due to concentrated arrivals. - For the futures market, short - term observation and cautious operation are recommended due to the weakly volatile fundamentals, stable downstream demand, and intense long - short game as the delivery month approaches [17]. Part 2: Log Balance Sheet The log balance sheet shows the changes in supply, demand, and inventory on a weekly basis from June 6, 2025, to October 10, 2025. The supply includes the number and weight of arriving logs, and the demand includes daily shipment volume and apparent demand. The inventory is divided by region and tree species, and the supply - demand gap also varies over time [19]. Part 3: Log Supply - Demand Analysis 3.1 Supply - side - **New Zealand log shipments**: No specific data or analysis is provided in the current document. - **Log imports**: The imports of various types of logs have shown different trends, with a general decrease in the imports of some coniferous logs compared to the previous period. - **Imports by tree species**: The imports of radiata pine, spruce, and other coniferous logs have decreased to varying degrees [7]. 3.2 Demand - side - **Daily log shipment volume**: It has decreased slightly compared to the previous period, and sawmill orders are relatively low. - **Real estate**: No specific data or analysis is provided in the current document [9]. 3.3 Downstream Analysis - **Timber analysis - price**: The prices of timber are relatively stable, with polarization between knot - free and sawed timber. - **Timber analysis - profit**: The profits of timber products are relatively stable but generally low. - **Downstream substitutes - Aluminum alloy analysis**: No specific data or analysis is provided in the current document [11][15]. 3.4 Inventory - side - **Inventory summary**: The overall inventory has increased slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate and accumulate under the situation of stable demand and increased arrivals. - **Inventory by tree species**: The inventories of radiata pine, spruce, and North American timber have different trends. - **Inventory by region**: The inventories in Shandong and Jiangsu have increased [9]. Part 4: Cost and Profit - **Log import cost and profit**: The import cost has increased slightly, and the import profit has decreased. As the off - season approaches, the outer - market quotes are difficult to sustain, and the import cost is expected to return to normal [15]. - **Log delivery profit**: No specific data or analysis is provided in the current document. Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis - **Log outer - market quotes**: The outer - market price of New Zealand radiata pine in October is expected to increase slightly, but the outer - market price support may not be sustainable. - **Seasonality of radiata pine and spruce prices**: The document shows the price trends of different specifications of radiata pine and spruce over different months in 2024 and 2025, reflecting certain seasonal characteristics. - **Seasonality of radiata pine and spruce spreads**: No specific data or analysis is provided in the current document. - **Basis between radiata pine and LG**: No specific data or analysis is provided in the current document. - **Seasonal chart and inter - monthly spreads of LG main contracts**: The document shows the price trends of the LG main contract over different months in 2024 and 2025 [11][87][107].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, for different futures varieties, there are trend - bearish, oscillation - bearish, oscillating, oscillation - bullish, and trend - bullish judgments. For example, log and liquefied petroleum gas are oscillation - bearish, while two - year and ten - year treasury bonds are oscillation - bullish [2]. - Based on quantitative indicators, there are bearish, oscillating, and bullish judgments for futures varieties. For example, Shanghai silver is bearish, while palm oil is bullish [6]. - In the stock index futures, it is advisable to continue considering the idea of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. In the bond futures, it is advisable to adopt an oscillating mindset and pay attention to the odds of short - term bonds [12][13]. - For the black industry, steel may oscillate and adjust, and iron ore should hold short positions or reduce positions on dips. Double - coking prices may continue to oscillate in the short term [16][17]. - For non - ferrous metals and new materials, it is advisable to sell on rallies for aluminum, and for alumina, it is advisable to sell on rallies while paying attention to the policy changes at the Guinean mine end. For zinc, it is advisable to hold short positions [22]. - For agricultural products, it is advisable to sell on rallies for cotton, short - term holders should leave the market and wait and see for sugar, and for eggs, it is advisable to lightly short near - month contracts on rallies [29][30][32]. - For energy and chemicals, it is advisable to continue holding short positions for crude oil, and fuel oil prices will fluctuate with oil prices [38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro News - The Chinese government emphasizes efforts to implement counter - cyclical adjustments, expand domestic demand, and strengthen the domestic economic cycle. The US government's actions, such as the 301 investigation and tariff threats, have an impact on the market. The Fed may continue to cut interest rates, and the US government shutdown affects the economic situation [9][10][11]. Stock Index Futures - The A - share market showed a pattern of rising in the morning and falling in the afternoon. The focus has returned to foreign trade conflicts, but the actual impact may be limited. It is advisable to continue considering the idea of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation [12]. Bond Futures - It is advisable to adopt an oscillating mindset and pay attention to the odds of short - term bonds. The market is affected by foreign trade conflicts, and the bond market is expected to oscillate [13][15]. Black Industry Steel and Iron Ore - From a macro perspective, Sino - US trade frictions have a negative impact on sentiment, but the impact on real supply and demand is expected to be limited. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is fair. Steel may oscillate and adjust, and iron ore should hold short positions or reduce positions on dips [16]. Coal and Coking - Double - coking prices may continue to oscillate in the short term. The supply of coal and coking is gradually recovering, but there are still expectations of "anti - involution" and environmental protection restrictions. The downstream inventory is at a high level, and the short - term demand support is weak [17]. Ferroalloys - Although the settlement electricity cost of silicon - iron plants in Ningxia is expected to decline slightly in the fourth quarter, the impact on the cost side is limited. It is recommended to close out short positions on dips and look for opportunities to go long on dips [18]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash should be held with a bearish mindset or take short - term profits. Glass should be on the sidelines. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to resolve. The glass market is affected by the decline in the futures price, and the mid - stream inventory needs to be digested [20]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is advisable to sell on rallies. Alumina is expected to continue to find the bottom, and it is advisable to sell on rallies while paying attention to the policy changes at the Guinean mine end [22]. Zinc - The domestic spot trading of zinc is light, and the inventory is increasing. It is advisable to hold short positions [22]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the strong de - stocking state supports the price, and lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate [24]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly in a range, and it is advisable to layout selling call options. Polysilicon is expected to oscillate narrowly in a range, and attention should be paid to the policy expectations at the lower edge [26]. Agricultural Products Cotton - With a complex upstream - downstream game, increasing supply pressure and weak demand, it is advisable to sell on rallies. The cotton market is affected by the macro - environment, and the demand is uncertain [29]. Sugar - The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is bearish, and the new - sugar supply pressure is expected. However, attention should be paid to the cost support. It is advisable for short - term holders to leave the market and wait and see [30]. Eggs - The supply - demand situation of eggs is loose, and it is advisable to lightly short near - month contracts on rallies while paying attention to the spot price trend and the impact of vegetable prices [32]. Apples - It is advisable to lightly go long on dips. The late - maturing Fuji apples in the eastern and western regions are gradually on the market, and attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall on the quality [34]. Corn - It is advisable to go long on the 07 contract on dips or sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract. The new - season corn supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure, but there may be support from state - owned grain depots [34]. Red Dates - It is advisable to wait and see. The market price is stable, and attention should be paid to the opening price of new - season red dates [36]. Pigs - The supply - demand situation after the double festivals is still supply - strong and demand - weak. It is advisable to hold short positions on near - month contracts and pay attention to the 1 - 3 positive spread strategy [36]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The contradiction of oversupply in crude oil continues to materialize, and the price center of gravity moves down steadily. It is advisable to continue holding short positions. The oil price may be repaired in the future [38]. Fuel Oil - The fuel oil price will fluctuate with the oil price. The supply is loose, and the demand is flat [38]. Plastic - Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly due to high supply pressure [41]. Rubber - Rubber is expected to continue to be weak due to supply increase expectations and macro - environment uncertainties. It is advisable to be cautious when shorting on sharp drops [42]. Methanol - Methanol has a large port inventory pressure, but there are some bullish factors in the later stage. It is advisable to reduce short positions and wait for a rebound [43]. Caustic Soda - The futures price of caustic soda is expected to oscillate due to the impact of warehouse receipts and the weakening of alumina prices [43]. Asphalt - Asphalt will follow the oil price. The current oil price is affected by geopolitical and macro - factors, and the asphalt demand is in a critical period [44]. Printing Paper - In the off - season, Chenming's resumption of production may lead to oversupply. The fundamentals are weak, but the low - valued disk has some support, and it is expected to oscillate [47]. Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester chain is expected to continue to oscillate weakly due to the weak supply - demand structure and insufficient cost support [48]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG supply is abundant, and the CP price may strengthen in the short - term due to peak - season stocking but will follow the oil price in the long - term. It is advisable to maintain a bearish view in the long - term [49]. Pulp - The spot price of pulp is near the bottom, and the 01 contract has less pressure from new warehouse receipts. It is advisable to observe the inventory reduction at ports and the spot trading situation. If the spot price is stable, it is advisable to go long on the 01 contract on dips [50]. Logs - The fundamentals of logs are weakly oscillating, and the downstream demand is stable. It is advisable to observe and operate with caution [51]. Urea - It is advisable to pay attention to the impact of cost and supply changes on urea futures and maintain an oscillating mindset [52]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to continue to be weak due to weak downstream procurement and macro - sentiment. It is advisable to be cautious when shorting on sharp drops [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including macro - finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals, agriculture, and energy - chemical industries. It assesses the market trends, price movements, and influencing factors of different commodities, offering corresponding investment strategies and outlooks based on fundamental and technical analyses [12][16][22]. Summary by Directory Macro Information - China imposes special port fees on US ships starting today, and in September, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%. Exports were 2.34 trillion yuan, up 8.4%, and imports were 1.7 trillion yuan, up 7.5%. China's rare earth exports in September were 4000.3 tons, showing a decline for the third consecutive month [9]. - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference will be held from October 27th to 30th in Beijing. Fed's Paulson supports two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year. In September, China's soybean and iron ore imports reached record highs, and coal imports were the second - highest on record. OPEC slightly raised the global crude oil demand growth forecast for this year [10]. Macro Finance - **A - share Strategy**: Consider a buy - on - dips approach and pay attention to index rotation. Although there are uncertainties in the US - China trade conflict, the actual impact may be limited. Be cautious of short - term market fluctuations if the 100% tariff is imposed [12]. - **Treasury Futures**: Adopt an oscillatory approach and focus on the odds of short - term bonds. The bond market is expected to oscillate, but there is an overall optimistic bias based on odds and future fundamentals [13][14]. Black Commodities - **Steel**: Steel may experience oscillatory adjustments, and iron ore will maintain high - level oscillations. The real demand improvement in the steel downstream is limited, and the market may have an oscillatory or off - peak season performance. The cost of raw materials is expected to remain between valley and peak electricity costs [16][17]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to oscillate weakly in the short term. The supply of coking coal is gradually recovering, and the demand from steel mills is strong, but the post - holiday replenishment demand is weak [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market is expected to maintain a weak and stable trend. Pay attention to the stop - profit points for short positions and the entry points for long positions during sharp drops in the next 1 - 2 weeks [18]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Hold a bearish view on soda ash and consider taking short - term profits. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for glass. The supply - demand contradiction in soda ash is difficult to resolve, and the inventory of glass is relatively high [19][20]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Alumina prices are expected to continue to seek a bottom, and shorting on rallies can be considered [22]. - **Zinc**: Hold short positions. The domestic zinc market has weak fundamentals, with increasing inventory and a downward - trending price. The global zinc price may show a resonance decline [23]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will oscillate within a range. For polysilicon, wait and see the progress of the industry conference this week [24]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Adopt a short - on - rallies strategy. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The international and domestic cotton markets are affected by macro factors and supply - demand changes [26]. - **Sugar**: Adopt a short - selling strategy. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus of 740 million tons in the 2025/26 season. The domestic sugar market is under supply pressure [27][28]. - **Eggs**: Gradually stop - profit and reduce short positions, and wait and see. The supply - demand of eggs is loose, but the downside space of the spot is limited [28][29]. - **Apples**: Consider a light - position long - on - dips strategy. The new - season apples have a strong expectation of a high opening price, but the price may decline as the listing volume increases [30]. - **Corn**: Consider a long - on - dips strategy for the 07 contract or sell out - of - the - money call options for the 01 contract. The new - season corn supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure, but there may be support from state purchases [30]. - **Red Dates**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The market price is stable, and the consumption is weak, but the opening price has a high expectation [31]. - **Pigs**: Hold short positions for near - month contracts. The post - holiday supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak, and the spot price is likely to continue to be weak [31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Hold existing short positions. The supply - demand contradiction of crude oil is that supply exceeds demand, and the price center is moving down. There may be a short - term price repair [33]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price of fuel oil will follow the trend of crude oil. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak [34]. - **Plastics**: Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly. The supply pressure is high, and the downstream demand is weak [35]. - **Methanol**: Adopt a bullish - oscillatory view. The port inventory pressure is large, but the arrival of Iranian goods may be affected, which may lead to a short - term rebound [36]. - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price is expected to oscillate. The inventory of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises is slowly declining, and the spot price is slightly stronger [38]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt will follow the trend of crude oil. The asphalt's own fundamentals are stable, and the demand in the north is entering a critical period [39]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to continue to be weak. Be cautious when short - selling during sharp drops. Pay attention to macro policies, device changes, and downstream procurement sentiment [47]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Adopt a long - term bearish view. The supply is abundant, and the demand is difficult to strengthen beyond expectations [42]. - **Urea**: Adopt an oscillatory approach. Pay attention to the impact of cost and supply changes on urea futures [46]. - **Paper - related Products**: - **Printing Paper**: It is expected to oscillate. Consider a light - position long - on - dips strategy or sell put options [40]. - **Paper Pulp**: Observe the port de - stocking and spot trading. Consider going long on the 01 contract on dips if the spot is stable [44]. - **Log**: Pay attention to the implementation of spot price support and downstream orders in the peak season. Consider a light - position long - on - dips strategy if conditions are met [45]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The polyester chain is expected to continue to oscillate weakly. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the cost support is weak [41].