下游需求依然疲弱，谨防旺季调整风险 中泰黑色报告 2025年9月1日 黑色研究团队 裴红彬 从业资格号：F0286311 交易咨询证书号：Z0010786 张 林 从业资格号：F0243334 交易咨询证书号：Z0000866 董雪珊 从业资格号：F3075616 交易咨询证书号：Z0018025 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 中泰黑色报告摘要20250830：下游需求依然疲弱，谨防旺季调整风险 交易逻辑和核心观点 从政策角度看，从政策角度看，《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案（2025-2026年）》出台，虽然其中提到"继续实施产量压减政策"，但是2025-2026年， 钢铁行业增加值年均增长4%左右（与《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案（2023-2024年）》相比，工业增加值基本相同），所以供给政策依然是刚性的，总体对钢 材供给和市场行情影响有限。 "防内卷"会议精神方面，7月底的政治局会议延续了7月初中财委会议的精神，继续强调了"反内卷"，不过表述较此前有 所放松，后续政策力度可能 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term strategy for stock index futures is mainly based on shock, and long - term investors can consider buying on dips. For treasury bond futures, conservative strategies can continue to focus on the curve steepening strategy, while aggressive strategies can consider buying on dips in the short term [13][14]. - For black commodities, the short - term price of steel and ore may adjust, and the medium - term will maintain a shock market. The price of coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. For ferroalloys, pay attention to the long - buying opportunity of the ferrosilicon 10 - contract, and maintain the medium - and long - term idea of short - selling on rebounds for manganese silicon [18][20][21]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials sector, the price of aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The price of alumina is expected to decline with shocks, and it is recommended to short on rallies. The price of lithium carbonate will mainly operate in a wide - range shock without new drivers. The price of industrial silicon will operate in a shock, and the price of polysilicon will also operate in a wide - range shock [25][26][27]. - For agricultural products, the price of cotton will follow the macro and external cotton market fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term and be bearish on rallies in the long term. The price of sugar is expected to be under pressure due to increased supply, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the short term. The price of eggs may not reverse in the short term, and it is recommended to take profit on short positions and wait and see. The price of apples can consider buying on dips or using a long - 10 short - 01 positive spread combination. The price of corn can consider shorting the 01 - contract on rallies or using an 11 - 1 positive spread. It is recommended to wait and see for jujubes. For live pigs, short on rallies for near - month contracts and consider long - buying opportunities for the 01 - contract [29][30][33]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the price of crude oil will operate in a strong shock in the short term and is expected to be weak in the medium and long term. The price of fuel oil will follow the price of crude oil. The price of plastics will be weak in a shock. It is advisable to pay attention to the long - buying opportunity of rubber on dips. The price of methanol will continue to be weak in a shock. The price of caustic soda will be strong, and a long - buying idea should be maintained. The price of asphalt will follow the price of crude oil. For the polyester industry chain, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider a PX positive spread opportunity. The price of liquefied petroleum gas will follow the price of crude oil and is expected to be bearish in the long term. The price of pulp rebounds after hitting the bottom, and it is recommended to observe. The price of logs is expected to be in a shock, and it is recommended to observe. The price of urea will operate in a strong shock in the short term. The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are gradually improving, and it is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities [39][40][46]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [10]. - From January to July, the total operating income of national state - owned and state - holding enterprises was flat compared with the previous year, and the total profit decreased by 3.3% year - on - year [10]. - Chinese official Li Chenggang visited the US and held talks with relevant US officials [10]. - In the first half of the year, Central Huijin "stood still" in ETF investments, and it spent over 210 billion yuan on increasing its holdings of 12 ETF products. By the end of the second quarter, the total market value of ETFs held by two companies reached 1.28 trillion yuan, accounting for about 30% of the total ETF scale [10]. - The US core PCE price index in July increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month [11]. - Macron stated that France and Germany are determined to jointly defend the EU's legislative and digital sovereignty [11] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The short - term strategy is mainly based on shock, and long - term investors can consider buying on dips. The A - share market had a good performance on Friday, but the manufacturing industry is still below the prosperity level. The stock market accelerated after continuous rises in August, and the index showed differentiation. There is a possibility of rhythm adjustment for stock index futures [13]. Treasury Bond Futures - Conservative strategies can continue to focus on the curve steepening strategy, and aggressive strategies can consider buying on dips in the short term. The PMI data in August stabilized after a rapid decline. The stock index and long - term bonds showed a strong negative correlation. The key contradiction in the bond market lies in the stock index [14]. Black Commodities Steel and Ore - The short - term price may adjust, and the medium - term will maintain a shock market. The implementation of relevant policies has limited impact on the supply of steel products. The real demand in the downstream of steel is limited, and there may be a situation of "no peak season in the peak season". The supply is expected to remain strong, and the cost and profit are affected by the price of raw materials [18][19]. Coking Coal and Coke - The price may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and the capital game is intense. The supply of coking coal may be tight in the short term, and the demand from steel mills provides support, but there is also downward pressure [20]. Ferroalloys - Pay attention to the long - buying opportunity of the ferrosilicon 10 - contract. For manganese silicon, maintain the medium - and long - term idea of short - selling on rebounds. The current supply of both ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is in an oversupply situation [21][22]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, maintain the idea of short - selling on rallies, and leave the market flexibly if a positive feedback atmosphere emerges. For glass, it is recommended to wait and see. The supply of soda ash may increase, and the demand for photovoltaic glass is stable. The inventory pressure of glass has been relieved, but there is potential pressure on upstream shipments [23]. Non - ferrous and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - The price of aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The price of alumina is expected to decline with shocks, and it is recommended to short on rallies. The demand for aluminum is weak, and the supply of alumina is in excess [25]. Lithium Carbonate - Without new drivers, the price will mainly operate in a wide - range shock. In September, the demand is in the peak season, and there may be inventory reduction, which will support the price [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The price of industrial silicon will operate in a shock, and the key lies in the resumption of production of leading manufacturers in Xinjiang. The price of polysilicon will operate in a wide - range shock, and policy expectations will affect the price [27][28]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The upstream - downstream game is intense, and the supply is low while the demand is weak. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term and be bearish on rallies in the long term. The price is affected by the international cotton price and macro factors. The domestic cotton inventory is low, but the downstream demand is weak [29]. Sugar - The import volume has increased significantly, and the short - term supply - demand relationship is relatively loose. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short term and pay attention to the support at the low point in mid - August. The international and domestic sugar markets are affected by multiple factors such as production and demand [30][31]. Eggs - The 10 - contract is a post - festival contract, and there is a game between weak reality and the expectation of concentrated culling of old hens. It is recommended to take profit on short positions and wait and see, and be cautious when buying at the bottom. The current supply pressure is high, but the futures position has reached a new high [33]. Apples - Consider buying on dips or using a long - 10 short - 01 positive spread combination. The price of early - maturing apples is high - quality and high - price, and the price of stored apples is relatively stable. The new - season Fuji apple price will be affected by early - maturing and old - season apples [35]. Corn - Consider shorting the 01 - contract on rallies or using an 11 - 1 positive spread. The domestic corn price is weak, and the supply and demand are under pressure. The policy grain supply and substitutes affect the demand, and the downstream processing demand is weak [35][36]. Jujubes - It is recommended to wait and see. The local rainfall in Xinjiang may affect the quality of jujubes, and the transaction price in the production area is stable [37]. Live Pigs - Short on rallies for near - month contracts and consider long - buying opportunities for the 01 - contract. The supply pressure in August was high, and it may continue in September. The demand is gradually recovering, but it is difficult to reverse the situation of "strong supply and weak demand" [37][38]. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - The price will operate in a strong shock in the short term and is expected to be weak in the medium and long term. The negotiation between the US, Russia, and Ukraine will take a long time, and the inventory data shows that the peak - season demand is approaching the end. Pay attention to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine event and the OPEC+ meeting [39]. Fuel Oil - The price will follow the price of crude oil. The future focus is on whether the price reflects the expected supply - demand surplus or geopolitical and macro factors. The supply of fuel oil is affected by domestic refinery demand and inventory [39][40]. Plastics - The supply pressure is relatively large, and it is expected to be weak in a shock. The positive sentiment from the elimination of backward production capacity has faded, and the supply is high while the demand is weak [40]. Rubber - Pay attention to the long - buying opportunity on dips, and be cautious when chasing high. The short - term fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the raw material price and demand affect the price [40][41]. Methanol - The price will continue to be weak in a shock. The port inventory is increasing, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The spot price is weakening [42]. Caustic Soda - The spot price is strong, and a long - buying idea should be maintained. The transportation restriction has been lifted, and the demand is expected to increase. The futures price is also strong [43]. Asphalt - The price will follow the price of crude oil. The asphalt fundamentals are stable, and the price is affected by the international oil price [43][44]. Polyester Industry Chain - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider a PX positive spread opportunity. The industry is in the transition period between the off - season and peak season, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve [46]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price follows the crude oil price and is affected by the import volume. The supply is abundant, and the demand is difficult to exceed expectations. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view in the long term [47]. Pulp - The fundamentals are unchanged, and the price rebounds after hitting the bottom. Observe whether the port inventory continues to decline and the spot transaction and demand after Chenming's resumption of production [48]. Logs - The fundamentals are in a shock state, and the spot price is stable. The supply may face pressure, but the demand is expected to improve in the peak season [48]. Urea - The short - term export is optimistic, and the futures price will operate in a strong shock. The spot price is stable, and the downstream demand is weak. The factory maintenance is increasing, and the daily output is below 190,000 tons [49]. Synthetic Rubber - The fundamentals are gradually improving, and pay attention to low - buying opportunities. The industry chain has no obvious contradictions, and the price is affected by raw materials and demand [50].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - In the stock index futures market, the short - term may be dominated by shocks, and long - term investors may consider buying on dips [11]. - In the treasury bond futures market, the short - term may be volatile, and long - term investors can consider buying on dips [12]. - For black commodities, steel and ore prices are expected to have limited price movements and remain in a mid - term oscillatory market; coking coal and coke prices may continue to oscillate at high levels in the short term; ferroalloys suggest a mid - term rebound - selling strategy; for soda ash, maintain a high - selling strategy, and for glass, adopt a wait - and - see approach [14][17][18][19]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials sector, aluminum is expected to oscillate and decline at high levels in the short term, and alumina can be considered for short - term basis - repair long positions and mid - term high - selling; zinc prices will oscillate and weaken; lithium carbonate prices will mainly operate in a wide - range oscillation; industrial silicon and polysilicon prices will be affected by policies and fundamentals and operate in a wide - range oscillation [22][23][24][25]. - In the agricultural products market, cotton can be observed for the time being; sugar prices are restricted by the expected increase in processed sugar; for eggs, adopt a short - term rebound - selling strategy; for apples, consider buying on dips or a 10 - 01 long - short spread strategy; for corn, adopt a high - selling strategy for the 01 contract or a 11 - 1 long - short spread strategy; for dates, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for live pigs, adopt a high - selling strategy for near - term contracts and consider low - buying opportunities for the 01 contract [30][33][37][38][41][42]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil is likely to shift to a supply - exceeding - demand pattern, and it can be considered to short on rallies; fuel oil prices will follow oil price fluctuations; plastics are expected to oscillate weakly; for rubber, consider buying on dips; methanol will continue to oscillate weakly; caustic soda can be considered for long positions after the basis is appropriate; asphalt follows oil prices; for the polyester industry chain, adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and consider a PX long - short spread strategy; LPG maintains a long - term bearish view; for paper pulp, observe port de - stocking and demand; for logs, observe the market; for urea, maintain an oscillatory view; for synthetic rubber, continue to focus on low - buying opportunities [45][46][47][48][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro News - The "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting High - Quality Development of Cities" was released, with goals set for 2030 and 2035 [6]. - China - Canada held the 28th China - Canada Economic and Trade Joint Committee, and the Chinese delegation will visit the US [6]. - China will continue to impose anti - dumping duties on imported phenol from the US, EU, South Korea, Japan, and Thailand for 5 years [6]. - Guotai Junan International launched cryptocurrency trading services in Hong Kong [7]. - The US Q2 real GDP annualized revised value increased by 3.3% quarter - on - quarter, and the core PCE price index increased by 2.5% [7]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 229,000 [7]. - A lawsuit was filed regarding the independence of the US central bank [7]. - In July, China issued new local government bonds worth 703.2 billion yuan and refinancing bonds worth 510.3 billion yuan [7]. - Japan's 2 - year treasury bond auction demand hit a record low since 2009 [8]. Stock Index Futures - The short - term may be dominated by shocks, and long - term investors may consider buying on dips. A - share indices rebounded in the afternoon, and the market turnover was 3 trillion yuan. The government released relevant policies, and industrial enterprise profit data rebounded [11]. Treasury Bond Futures - The short - term may be volatile, and long - term investors can consider buying on dips. The capital market was balanced and loose, and the stock - bond seesaw was not obvious [12]. Black Commodities Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - Supply policies have limited impact on the market, and the market will remain in an oscillatory pattern. Seasonal demand is expected to turn from weak to strong, and the mid - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The impact of policies on exports in September is worthy of attention. Production may be limited during the parade, but the impact is expected to be small. The cost and profit situation is favorable for the raw material price valuation of the futures market. Steel and ore prices are expected to have limited price movements and remain in an oscillatory market [14][15][16]. Coking Coal and Coke - Prices may continue to oscillate at high levels in the short term, and operations require caution. Short - term coal mine safety inspections may be strict, and coking enterprises' production restrictions are starting. The supply of coking coal may be tight in the short term, and the demand from steel mills is strong, but there are also factors that put pressure on prices [17]. Ferroalloys - Adopt a mid - term rebound - selling strategy and do not chase short positions. The stock market's decline has affected commodity sentiment, and the supply of ferroalloys may increase until the end of September. The supply - demand situation is weakening, and the volatility may continue to decline [18]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, maintain a high - selling strategy and flexibly exit if the positive feedback atmosphere intensifies; for glass, adopt a wait - and - see approach. Soda ash production has declined recently but is expected to return to normal, and the inventory pressure has been relieved. The demand for photovoltaic glass is expected to increase, but there is potential delivery pressure. The inventory of glass has decreased, but the mid - stream inventory is large, and the demand is mainly driven by speculation [19]. Non - Ferrous and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to oscillate and decline at high levels in the short term, and long - term investors can consider buying on dips. Alumina can be considered for short - term basis - repair long positions and mid - term high - selling. The inventory of aluminum is not performing well, and the market sentiment is weak. The market is trading the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the demand for aluminum is expected to increase in the peak season. The supply of alumina is excessive, and the market sentiment is poor [22]. Zinc - Social inventory is increasing, and zinc prices will oscillate and weaken. The processing fee is rising, and refineries are resuming production. The off - season is approaching, and the supply is expected to increase, while the downstream demand is weak [23]. Lithium Carbonate - Prices will mainly operate in a wide - range oscillation. The tight supply - demand situation provides support for prices, and attention should be paid to changes in supply - side disturbances [24]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the impact of key varieties in the previous anti - involution market. Polysilicon prices are mainly affected by policy progress, and the market sentiment has cooled slightly. The policy is expected to promote the exit of backward production capacity in the photovoltaic industry, and the market may enter a phase of near - month warehouse receipt valuation regression [25][28]. Agricultural Products Cotton - In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton may strengthen at high levels, and long - term investors can observe. The low domestic cotton inventory and seasonal peak demand support cotton prices. The price of US cotton rebounded overnight, and domestic cotton prices followed suit. Attention should be paid to macro - economic and supply - demand changes, and the long - term production increase pressure still exists [30][31][32]. Sugar - The low domestic sugar inventory is restricted by the expected increase in processed sugar. The import cost follows international sugar prices, and the technical indicators are weak, but there is support at the mid - August low. The international sugar price has demand support, and the Brazilian sugarcane production may decrease. The domestic sugar price is under pressure due to increased imports, but there is support from the mid - August low [33][35][36]. Eggs - The futures trading volume has reached a record high, and the market game has intensified. The 10 - contract has a weak reality and the expectation of concentrated old - hen culling. The current high egg production is difficult to reverse in the short term, and it is recommended to sell on rebounds for near - term contracts and operate with light positions [37]. Apples - Consider buying on dips or a 10 - 01 long - short spread strategy. The high - quality early - maturing apples in the western region are sold at high prices, and the price of stored apples is expected to be stable in the short term, while early - maturing apples are expected to maintain the high - quality - high - price trend [38][39][40]. Corn - Adopt a high - selling strategy for the 01 contract or a 11 - 1 long - short spread strategy. The domestic corn price is weak, and the futures price has strengthened due to short - covering. The corn market sentiment is bearish, with pressure on both supply and demand sides [41]. Dates - Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The rainy weather in some areas of Xinjiang may affect the quality of dates, and the futures price is strong. The transaction price in the production area is stable, and the price in the sales area has changed slightly [42]. Live Pigs - Adopt a high - selling strategy for near - term contracts and consider low - buying opportunities for the 01 contract. The spot price is weak, and the end - of - month price increase expectation has been falsified. The supply is high, but the inventory has decreased recently, and the government's storage policy has boosted the market sentiment [42][43]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - It is likely to shift to a supply - exceeding - demand pattern, and it can be considered to short on rallies. The uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has affected the market, and the market has returned to trading based on weak fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the progress of US - Russia negotiations and the OPEC+ quota adjustment in early September [45]. Fuel Oil - Prices will follow oil price fluctuations. The Brent crude oil price is rebounding, and the demand for crude oil still exists, but the long - term issue of supply surplus needs to be resolved. The domestic refinery's demand for raw materials affects the fuel oil market, and the Singapore fuel oil inventory is increasing [46]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly. The positive sentiment brought by the elimination of backward production capacity in the petrochemical industry has faded, and the supply pressure is large, while the downstream demand is weak [47]. Rubber - Consider buying on dips and be cautious when chasing high prices. There are no obvious short - term contradictions in the fundamentals, and the upstream losses and downstream demand recovery provide support for prices [48]. Methanol - It will continue to oscillate weakly. The overall sentiment in the chemical industry has cooled, and the supply pressure is large. The port inventory is increasing, and the price is under pressure [48][49]. Caustic Soda - Consider long positions after the basis is appropriate. The spot price is strong, and the futures price is relatively strong compared to other chemical products. The supply is low - inventory, and the demand is increasing [50]. Asphalt - Follows oil prices. The asphalt market is in the transition from the off - season to the peak season, with only rigid demand support, and the inventory is decreasing as expected [51]. Polyester Industry Chain - Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and consider a PX long - short spread strategy. The market sentiment has declined, and the PX price is under pressure, but there is support from the cost side. The PTA price is weak, but the downside space is limited. The ethylene glycol inventory has decreased, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve. Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices follow the raw material price decline [52]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Maintain a long - term bearish view. The short - term increase is due to reduced imports and the rebound of crude oil prices. The supply is abundant, and the demand is difficult to exceed expectations, especially in the off - season for civilian use [53]. Pulp - Observe whether the port de - stocking continues and whether the spot trading and demand improve after Chenming's resumption of production. The market is affected by the weak performance of softwood pulp [54]. Logs - Observe the market. The spot price is stable, the supply may face pressure due to increased arrivals this week, but the demand is expected to improve in the peak season [55]. Urea - Maintain an oscillatory view. The spot price is recognized by the market, and the trading volume has increased. The supply has decreased due to factory maintenance, and the demand has increased [56]. Synthetic Rubber - Continue to focus on low - buying opportunities and be cautious when chasing high prices. The fundamentals are improving, the inventory is decreasing, and the peak demand season is approaching, but there is pressure from the raw material side and the overall weak commodity sentiment [57].

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 8 月 28 日 | 联系人：王竣冬 | | --- | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | | [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 | | --- | 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_Finance] 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | 偏空 | 農荡 | 偏多 | | --- | --- | --- | | РУС | 菜粕 | 螺纹钢 | | 棕櫚油 | 热轧卷板 | 锰硅 | | 白糖 | 聚丙烯 | 鸡蛋 | | 沪锡 | 沪锌 | 沥青 | | 护银 | 沪金 | 铁矿石 | | 玻璃 | 들도 | 玉米淀粉 | | 沪铅 | 焦炭 | ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 8 月 27 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 2025/8/27 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 原油 | 氧化铝 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | 锌 | 铝 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | 三十债 | 液化石油气 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | 塑彩 | 沥青 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | 纯碱 | 橡胶 | 短纤 | | | | 甲醇 | 合成橡胶 | 对二甲苯 | | | | 玉米 | 二债 | 乙二醇 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 棉纱 | PTA | | | | | 十债 | 苹果 | | | | | 棉花 | | | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term fundamentals of the log market are in a weak and volatile state. The supply side has certain support, but the increase in arrivals in August may not be significant. The demand is currently weak but has limited downward space, and is expected to improve gradually as the peak season approaches. The inventory is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The prices of logs and wood products are relatively stable, and the import profit is declining. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and consider appropriate hedging at high prices according to one's own spot situation [6][9][11][15][17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Log Overview - **Supply Side**: The number of arriving ships remained the same at 8 from August 15th to 22nd, 2025, and the arrival volume increased by 3.30 million cubic meters to 28.4 million cubic meters. The import volume of coniferous logs decreased by 22.35 million cubic meters, and the import volume of radiata pine decreased by 20.96 million cubic meters. Although the arrivals are expected to increase next week, the arrival volume in August may not rise significantly due to factors such as less departure from New Zealand and rising outer - market quotes [6][7]. - **Demand and Inventory Side**: The weekly shipment volume increased slightly, with a national increase of 0.8 million cubic meters. The apparent demand decreased by 1.7 million cubic meters. The inventory in some regions and tree species showed a trend of destocking. Although the current demand is weak, it is expected to improve as the peak season approaches, and the inventory is expected to fluctuate and adjust [8][9]. - **Price and Spread**: The outer - market quotes of radiata pine are expected to rise, and the spot prices are relatively stable. The spread between spot prices is stable, and the basis can be considered at the level of 5.9m medium - grade A radiata pine. The futures prices are in a volatile state [10][11][13]. - **Cost and Profit**: The import cost of radiata pine and spruce increased slightly, and the import profit decreased. The profit of finished products is in a stable and weak state [14][15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The spot market is stable, and the supply side is under some pressure. The fundamentals are in a volatile state. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and consider appropriate hedging at high prices according to one's own spot situation [16][17]. Part 2: Log Balance Sheet The report provides the weekly balance sheet of logs from June 6th, 2025, to August 22nd, 2025, including arrival numbers, arrival volumes, daily average shipment volumes, apparent demand, inventory by region and tree species, and supply - demand differences [18][19][20]. Part 3: Log Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: It includes aspects such as New Zealand's log shipment volume, log imports, and imports by tree species, but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [22][25][26]. - **Demand Side**: It involves the daily average shipment volume of logs and the real - estate market, but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [34][35][37]. - **Downstream Analysis**: It includes the price and profit analysis of wood squares and the analysis of downstream substitutes such as aluminum alloys, but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [42][43][49]. - **Inventory Side**: It includes the inventory summary, inventory by tree species, and inventory by region, but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [58][59][61]. Part 4: Cost and Profit - **Log Import Cost and Profit**: The import cost of radiata pine and spruce increased slightly, and the import profit decreased [72][73][77]. - **Log Delivery Profit**: Specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [78]. Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis - **Log Outer - Market Quotes**: The outer - market quotes of radiata pine are expected to rise, and the price of New Zealand radiata pine in August is in the range of 114 - 118 US dollars per cubic meter, an increase of 1 - 2 US dollars compared to July [82][83][11]. - **Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Prices**: The report provides the price seasonality charts of radiata pine and spruce from 2024 to 2025, but specific analysis is not fully presented in the provided content [86][87][88]. - **Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Spreads**: Specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [89][94]. - **Basis between Radiata Pine and LG**: Specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [95]. - **Seasonal Chart and Inter - Month Spread of LG Main Contracts**: The report provides the seasonal chart of the LG main contract from 2024 to 2025, but specific analysis is not fully presented in the provided content [97][98][100].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Stock Index Futures**: Consider long - term buying on dips and focus on short - term supplementary gains opportunities for IH. The A - share market is strong, and overseas market risk preference has increased due to Powell's dovish stance. [11] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term trading is expected to be volatile, and the medium - term curve steepening strategy can still be held. The bond market has risen significantly, showing a situation of both stocks and bonds rising. [12] - **Black Commodities**: Overall, the black commodity market is expected to remain volatile. Policy and supply - demand factors jointly affect prices, with different trends for different varieties. [14][16][17][18] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish, while alumina is expected to be volatile and bearish. Zinc is expected to weaken, and other varieties also have their own trends based on supply - demand and policy factors. [20][21][22][23] - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, cotton has short - term upward momentum but long - term supply pressure, while sugar is restricted by inventory and supply factors. [25][28] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is likely to enter a supply - surplus pattern, and other energy and chemical products also have their own price trends based on supply - demand and geopolitical factors. [39][40][41][43][44] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro News - Shanghai introduced a "combination punch" of real - estate policies, including relaxed housing purchase restrictions, increased housing provident fund loan limits, and adjusted mortgage interest rates and property tax policies. [9] - The CPC Central Committee General Office and the State Council General Office issued an opinion on promoting green - low - carbon transformation and strengthening the construction of the national carbon market. [9] - Trump met with South Korean President Yoon Suk - yeol, expressing willingness to renegotiate the trade agreement and considering ordering ships from South Korea. Trump's administration also planned to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products. [9] - In July, the annualized sales volume of new homes in the US decreased by 0.6% to 652,000 units, and the median price of new homes decreased by 5.9% year - on - year to $403,800. [9] - Japanese postal services will temporarily stop receiving some mail destined for the US due to new regulations. [9] - Henan coking enterprises will implement voluntary production cuts from August 25th to September 3rd, with an estimated reduction of 20 - 35%. [10] Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Long - term buying on dips, focusing on short - term supplementary gains opportunities for IH. The A - share market is strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 3900 points, and the market turnover is close to 3.2 trillion yuan. Overseas, Powell's dovish stance at the global central bank annual meeting has increased market risk preference. [11] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy: Short - term trading is expected to be volatile, and the medium - term curve steepening strategy can still be held. The capital market is balanced and loose, and the bond market has risen significantly under the influence of interest - rate cut expectations and loose capital. [12] Black Commodities Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - Market fluctuations are due to the dovish remarks of the Fed Chairman and the relaxation of real - estate policies in Shanghai. The market is expected to remain volatile in the future, with seasonal demand improving and supply remaining strong. [14] Coal and Coke - The price of coal and coke may enter a high - level volatile stage in the short term. Supply is expected to be tight in the short term, but there are also potential downward pressures. [16] Ferroalloys - Short - term attention should be paid to the fluctuations of ferrosilicon. In the medium term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. [17] Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, a short - selling strategy on rallies can be maintained. For glass, it is advisable to wait and see for the time being. [18] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish, while alumina is expected to be volatile and bearish. [20] Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to weaken due to increasing inventory and supply. [21] Lithium Carbonate - After the sentiment cools down, lithium carbonate prices are expected to trade in a wide range. [22] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to trade in a volatile range, and polysilicon is mainly affected by policy progress and is expected to trade in a wide range. [23][24] Agricultural Products Cotton - In the short term, cotton prices are bullish, but there are long - term supply pressures. A short - selling strategy on rallies for the long - term is recommended. [25] Sugar - Domestic sugar prices are restricted by inventory and supply, and attention should be paid to potential short - covering opportunities during the Mid - Autumn and National Day holiday stocking period. [28] Eggs - The egg market has high supply pressure. A short - selling strategy on rallies for the near - term is recommended, and caution is needed when buying at the bottom. [31][32] Apples - A light - position positive - spread strategy is recommended. [33] Corn - Short - selling the 01 contract on rallies or a 11 - 1 positive - spread strategy is recommended. [33] Red Dates - It is advisable to wait and see. [35] Pigs - A short - selling strategy on rallies for the near - term contracts is recommended. The spot price may rebound at the end of the month, but the upside is limited. [36] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil is likely to enter a supply - surplus pattern, and a short - selling strategy on rallies can be considered. [39] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices will follow the trend of oil prices, and the short - term trading range is estimated to be between 65 and 70 US dollars. [40] Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to be volatile and bearish from a supply - demand perspective, but market sentiment may be affected by the expectation of eliminating backward production capacity. [41] Rubber - There are opportunities to buy on dips, but caution is needed when chasing high prices. [43] Methanol - Methanol prices are expected to be volatile and bearish due to inventory accumulation, but market sentiment may be affected by the expectation of eliminating backward production capacity. It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see. [44] Caustic Soda - A strategy of taking profits on rallies for long positions is recommended. [45] Asphalt - Asphalt prices will follow the trend of oil prices, and its fundamentals are in the transition from the off - season to the peak season. [46] Polyester Industry Chain - A strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The cost support is strengthening, and the demand in the industry chain is gradually recovering. [47][48] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - In the long term, a bearish view is maintained as supply is abundant and demand growth is limited. [49] Pulp - Observe whether the de - stocking at ports continues and whether the spot trading and demand improve after Chenming's resumption of production. [50] Logs - The fundamentals are expected to be volatile. It is recommended to observe and consider hedging on rallies according to one's own spot situation. [51] Urea - A bearish view is maintained, and attention should be paid to changes in China's urea export details. [52] Synthetic Rubber - The fundamentals are gradually improving, and opportunities for low - level buying can be considered. [53]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A series of significant events are taking place globally and in China, including international summits, policy announcements, and industry - related initiatives, which have a wide - ranging impact on the financial and commodity markets [9][10][11] - Different commodity futures have distinct trends and investment strategies, influenced by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical events [13][17][19] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - economic News - The 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit will be held in Tianjin from August 31 to September 1. President Xi Jinping will preside over relevant meetings [9] - Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium led traders to increase bets on a September rate cut [9] - The central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of MLF operations on August 25, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan this month [9] - Multiple policies were issued, including those related to securities company classification, futures company internet marketing, and the "Three - North" project [10] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association called for an end to cut - throat competition, and a major procurement bid saw an increase in average prices [10] Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to consider going long on dips for the long - term and using an option covered - call strategy for the short - term. The A - share market showed a strong upward trend on Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3,800 points [13] Bond Futures - In the short - term, it is mainly in a volatile state. The medium - term curve steepening strategy can still be held. Attention should be paid to the possible emotional swing after Central Huijin's reduction of Hong Kong - listed brokerage stocks [14][15] Black Commodities Steel and Iron Ore - Steel and ore prices are expected to remain volatile. Policy has a "de - involution" impact, and the supply - demand situation shows that seasonal demand is weak, but the medium - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [17] Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may enter a high - level volatile stage in the short - term. Supply is affected by safety inspections and production restrictions, while demand is supported by high iron - making output but may decline [18] Ferroalloys - The supply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is increasing, and the cost of silicomanganese is slightly weakening. The mid - term strategy is to short on rebounds, and the market may open higher on the 25th due to macro - sentiment [19] Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, the strategy is to short on rallies, and for glass, it is to wait and see. Soda ash supply may increase in the future, and glass needs to digest speculative inventory [20] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong, and it is recommended to go long on dips. Alumina prices are expected to be volatile and weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies [22] Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to weaken as social inventories increase, processing fees rise, and downstream demand is weak [23] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices will mainly operate in a wide - range volatile state after returning to a reasonable valuation. There may be a supply gap in September - October [24] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to be in a volatile state, and polysilicon is mainly affected by policy expectations, with a wide - range volatile trend [25] Agricultural Products Cotton - In the short - term, cotton prices are strong due to downstream demand and low inventory, but in the long - term, there are concerns about increased production and demand. It is recommended to short on rallies in the long - term and wait and see in the short - term [27] Sugar - Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to expected increased supply, but there may be support from holiday - related demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - covering opportunities in the long - term [29] Eggs - The egg futures market has intensified competition. It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - term, and be cautious about bottom - fishing [32] Apples - The price of stored apples is expected to be stable, and early - maturing apples are expected to maintain a high - quality, high - price trend. It is recommended to conduct a light - position positive spread operation [34] Corn - It is recommended to short on rallies for the 01 contract or conduct a 11 - 1 positive spread operation. The corn market is currently bearish due to supply and demand pressures [35] Red Dates - It is recommended to wait and see. The market is in a consumption off - season, and attention should be paid to weather and sales conditions [37] Pigs - It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The market is currently supply - dominant, but there may be a short - term price rebound at the end of the month [38] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are in a strong - side volatile state in the short - term but are expected to be weak in the medium - and long - term. Attention should be paid to geopolitical events and OPEC+ meetings [39] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices are expected to follow crude oil prices, with a short - term volatile range between 65 - 70 dollars [39] Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to be weak and volatile from a supply - demand perspective, but market sentiment may be affected by the expectation of eliminating backward production capacity [41] Rubber - Rubber has no obvious short - term contradictions. It is recommended to go long on dips with a stop - loss and be cautious about chasing high prices [42] Methanol - Methanol prices are expected to be weak and volatile due to port inventory accumulation. It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see [43] Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are strong in both the spot and futures markets. It is recommended to maintain a long - position idea [44] Asphalt - Asphalt prices follow crude oil prices. The current fundamentals are in a seasonal off - season but are turning to the peak season [45] Polyester Industry Chain - It is recommended to try to go long on dips. The supply - demand structure of the polyester industry chain has improved, and prices are expected to be strong [46] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG prices are strong in the short - term but are expected to be weak in the long - term due to sufficient supply and limited demand growth [47] Pulp - Pulp prices are mainly affected by news and sentiment. It is recommended to observe port inventory reduction and demand changes after Chenming's resumption of production [48] Urea - Urea prices are expected to be weak due to weak domestic demand and doubts about large - scale exports. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view [49] Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber has no obvious contradictions in the short - term. It is recommended to conduct high - selling and low - buying operations or wait and see [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global hedge funds are buying Chinese stocks at the fastest pace since the end of June, and foreign - owned A - share market value has increased by 8% compared to the end of 2024 [7]. - The total social electricity consumption in July reached 1.02 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%, and the proportion of new energy has significantly increased [7]. - The EU and the US announced details of a new trade agreement, with the US imposing a 15% tariff on most EU goods, and the EU making corresponding commitments and procurement plans [7]. - A new policy - based financial instrument worth 500 billion yuan will be launched, targeting emerging industries and infrastructure [8]. - The national average pig - grain ratio has fallen below 6:1, and the central government will conduct frozen pork reserve purchases [8]. - DeepSeek - V3.1 is officially released with new features and an increased API interface call price [9]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week reached a new high since June, and the number of continued jobless claims reached the highest level since November 2021 [9]. - US existing - home sales in July increased by 2% year - on - year, and the median price increased by 0.2% year - on - year [9]. - The eurozone's August PMI preliminary value rose above the boom - bust line for the first time since June 2022 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Long - term strategy: Consider buying on dips. Global hedge funds are actively buying Chinese stocks, and the market is expected to be stable with policy support [11]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Short - term: Volatility is the main trend. Medium - term: The curve - steepening strategy can still be held. After the tax period, funds are looser, and the stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious [12]. 3.2 Black (Steel and Ore) - Policy: The tone is becoming more moderate, and the policy is neutral to slightly negative for the market [13]. - Supply and demand: Supply is expected to remain strong, and the medium - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Steel mill profits are at a certain level, and iron ore production is expected to remain high [13]. - Cost and profit: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a limited range, with the valuation between valley - electricity and flat - electricity costs [13]. 3.3 Coal and Coke - Short - term: Prices may enter a high - level consolidation phase, and trading should be cautious. The market is affected by production inspections and steel mill production [15]. - Future: The supply of coking coal is expected to be tight in the short term, but there are also factors that may put pressure on prices, such as the possible decline in steel mill iron - water production and sufficient imported Mongolian coal supply [15]. 3.4 Ferroalloys - Market outlook: After a sharp decline in the double - silicon futures, the pressure has been partially relieved. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and take profits on dips if there is a sharp decline. Focus on structural trading opportunities [16]. 3.5 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash: Supply is expected to continue to increase, and the inventory of the delivery warehouse is increasing, with potential delivery pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [17]. - Glass: Inventory is increasing, and the spot market atmosphere has declined. It is recommended to wait and see for now [18]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.6.1 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum: The spot price is firm, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [20]. - Alumina: The supply is in excess, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to short on rallies [20]. 3.6.2 Lithium Carbonate - Prices will mainly fluctuate widely around a reasonable valuation. The price may first rise and then fall, and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances [21]. 3.6.3 Industrial Silicon - The downward adjustment space is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate. The key factor is the resumption of production of leading manufacturers [22]. 3.6.4 Polysilicon - Policy progress dominates the price fluctuation. The market is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is difficult to have a deep decline [23]. 3.7 Agricultural Products 3.7.1 Cotton - Long - term: Short on rallies. Short - term: Wait and see. The market is affected by factors such as low downstream demand and potential future production increases [26]. 3.7.2 Sugar - Domestic sugar inventory is low, but the expected increase in processed sugar may restrict prices. Pay attention to the short - covering opportunity during the Mid - Autumn and National Day holidays [29]. 3.7.3 Eggs - The supply pressure is high, and the futures price is correcting the premium. It is recommended to reduce short positions on dips and be cautious about bottom - fishing [32]. 3.7.4 Apples - A light - position positive spread strategy is recommended. The price of early - maturing apples is high, and the inventory apple price is relatively stable [35]. 3.7.5 Corn - Short the 01 contract on rallies or use a 11 - 1 positive spread strategy. The market sentiment is bearish, and both supply and demand are under pressure [36]. 3.7.6 Red Dates - It is recommended to wait and see. The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates widely [37]. 3.7.7 Pigs - For near - month contracts, be cautious and short. Consider a 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy. The supply is under pressure, and the short - term consumption improvement is limited [38]. 3.8 Energy and Chemicals 3.8.1 Crude Oil - In the long term, it is likely to enter a supply - surplus pattern. Consider shorting on rallies. Pay attention to factors such as US - Russia negotiations and OPEC+ quota adjustments [38]. 3.8.2 Fuel Oil - The oil price has no main - line logic and is expected to fluctuate between 63 - 70 dollars. The fuel oil price will follow the oil price [40]. 3.8.3 Plastics - Polyolefins have large supply pressure and are expected to fluctuate weakly. However, the expectation of eliminating backward production capacity may drive up the price. It is recommended to close previous short positions and wait and see [41]. 3.8.4 Rubber - The short - term fundamentals have no obvious contradictions. Short - term long positions can be considered on dips with a stop - loss, and be cautious about chasing high prices [42]. 3.8.5 Methanol - The port inventory is increasing, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to close short positions and wait and see due to the impact of the expectation of eliminating backward production capacity [43]. 3.8.6 Caustic Soda - The spot price is strong, and the futures price is affected by strong reality and strong expectations. A long - position strategy is recommended [44]. 3.8.7 Asphalt - The oil price has no main - line logic, and the asphalt price will follow the oil price. The asphalt market is in a seasonal off - season and is gradually turning to the peak season [44]. 3.8.8 Polyester Industry Chain - It is recommended to try long positions on dips. The cost is strong, and the supply and demand are expected to improve [45]. 3.8.9 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The price is expected to fluctuate downward, and the medium - term trend is weaker than that of crude oil. The supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season [46]. 3.8.10 Urea - The domestic demand is weak, and it is recommended to maintain a bearish view. Pay attention to export changes [47]. 3.8.11 Synthetic Rubber - The short - term sentiment fluctuates significantly. Short - term long positions can be considered on dips with a stop - loss [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides trend judgments and trading strategies for various futures products based on fundamental and quantitative indicators. It analyzes the market conditions of different sectors, including macro - finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals, agriculture, and energy - chemical industries, and offers corresponding investment suggestions. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Information - China's new LPR remains unchanged for three consecutive months, with the 1 - year at 3.0% and the 5 - year and above at 3.5% [10] - The Fed's July meeting minutes show that almost all policymakers support not cutting interest rates, with only two opposing. There are differences among officials on inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation [10] - Multiple rural banks in Zhejiang, Guizhou, Jilin, etc., have lowered deposit rates, while many banks have launched large - value certificates of deposit with an annual interest rate of over 2% [10] - The US federal budget deficit is expected to reach $22.7 trillion in the next decade, nearly $1 trillion higher than the CBO's January forecast [11] 2. Macro Finance 2.1 Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to consider long - term buying on dips. The A - share market rebounded strongly on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten - year high. The semiconductor industry chain was strong, and sectors such as GPU, servers, and liquor led the rise [13] 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The curve steepening strategy can still be held in the medium - term cycle. The money market initially tightened and then eased. The stock - bond seesaw effect was obvious, and the long - end yield was strongly suppressed by the asset comparison logic [14] 3. Black Commodities 3.1 Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - Policy tone is milder. Seasonal demand is weak, but the medium - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Steel mill profits are stable, and prices are expected to fluctuate. The futures price of rebar is affected by the rumored large - scale warehouse receipts [15][16][17] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Prices may enter a high - level oscillation stage. Supply may be tight in the short term, but there is also downward pressure from factors such as the possible decline in steel mill iron - water production and sufficient imported Mongolian coal supply [17][18] 3.3 Ferroalloys - After the sharp decline in the double - silicon futures price, the short - term fundamentals have no rebound logic. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and consider taking profits on dips if there is a sharp decline [19] 4. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 4.1 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum prices are expected to rebound, and it is advisable to buy on dips because of downstream replenishment, the approaching peak season, and the expected Fed interest - rate cut. Alumina prices are expected to decline, and it is recommended to sell on rallies due to supply surplus [21][22] 4.2 Zinc - Social zinc inventories are increasing, and the supply is expected to increase. Zinc prices will oscillate downward as the macro - impact fades and the overseas inventory decline slows down [23] 4.3 Lithium Carbonate - Prices are expected to rise first and then fall. There is a short - term supply gap, but the fourth - quarter fundamentals will loosen, and the global lithium resource balance sheet is in surplus [24] 4.4 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate as the polysilicon复产 supports de - stocking. Polysilicon is mainly affected by policy progress, with wide - range oscillations [25][27] 5. Agricultural Products 5.1 Cotton - In the long - term, it is advisable to sell on rallies due to weak downstream demand and future production increase pressure. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to macro and supply - demand changes [29][30] 5.2 Sugar - Domestic sugar inventory is low, but the expected increase in processed sugar restricts prices. Pay attention to the short - covering opportunity during the Mid - Autumn and National Day stocking period [32] 5.3 Eggs - The supply pressure is high, and the futures contract is at a premium. It is recommended to reduce short positions gradually and be cautious about bottom - fishing [33] 5.4 Apples - The strategy is to conduct light - position positive spreads due to rainfall in the western production area [34] 5.5 Red Dates - It is recommended to wait and see as the spot market in Hebei is stable and weak, and the futures price oscillates widely [36] 5.6 Pigs - The short - term spot price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. It is recommended to be cautiously short on near - month contracts and pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy [37][38] 6. Energy - Chemical Industry 6.1 Crude Oil - EIA inventory reduction is short - term positive. In the long - term, the market may turn to a supply - surplus situation. It is advisable to try shorting on rallies [39] 6.2 Fuel Oil - The price follows the trend of crude oil. The market is affected by factors such as the peak power - generation season in the Middle East, weak shipping, and inventory accumulation [39] 6.3 Plastics - Polyolefins have high supply pressure and are expected to oscillate weakly. However, the expectation of eliminating backward capacity in the petrochemical industry may drive up prices. It is recommended to close previous short positions and wait and see [39][40] 6.4 Rubber - There is no obvious short - term contradiction in the fundamentals. It is advisable to short on dips with a stop - loss and be cautious about chasing high prices [42] 6.5 Methanol - The port inventory is increasing, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to close short positions and wait and see due to the impact of the expectation of eliminating backward capacity in the petrochemical industry [43] 6.6 Caustic Soda - The spot price is stable, and the futures price has risen significantly. It is advisable for long - positions to take profits at an appropriate time [44] 6.7 Asphalt - The price follows the trend of crude oil. The asphalt market is in the off - season, with slow inventory reduction [45] 6.8 Polyester Industry Chain - It is advisable to try going long on dips. The PX supply - demand pattern is in tight balance, the PTA supply is tight, and the terminal demand shows signs of recovery [46][47] 6.9 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The price is expected to decline as the Russia - Ukraine issue eases. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak in the medium - term [48] 6.10 Pulp - The coniferous pulp market is weak. It is recommended to observe whether the port de - stocking continues and whether the spot trading improves [49] 6.11 Logs - The fundamentals are oscillating. It is recommended to observe and consider hedging at high prices according to the spot situation [50] 6.12 Urea - The domestic demand is weak, and the market follows a wide - range oscillation pattern. Pay attention to the changes in China's urea export volume [50]