Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bullish [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Rebound [2] - Glass: Bullish [2] - Soda ash: Rebound [2] - SSE 50 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300 Index: Upward [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebound [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Logs: Range-bound oscillation [5] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [5] - Offset paper: Bearish [5] - Soybean oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Palm oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillating bearish [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating bearish [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating bearish [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating bearish [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating bullish [6] - Rubber: Oscillating [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Oscillating [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut landed as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to reality. The market sentiment for various commodities has been affected by factors such as policy expectations, supply and demand changes, and cost fluctuations [2][3]. - The overall market shows a mixed trend, with different commodities having different investment outlooks, and investors need to pay attention to specific supply and demand situations and market factors of each commodity [2][3][4][5][6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Global iron ore shipments increased, supply returned, and iron ore demand rebounded with the recovery of daily average hot metal production. The short - term fundamental contradictions of iron ore are limited, and attention should be paid to whether the 2601 contract can stand firm at the previous high [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Affected by coal mine shutdown news and the "anti - involution" expectation, the coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year, and demand rebounded with the recovery of hot metal production [2]. - **Rebar and hot - rolled coil**: Supply will remain at a relatively high level, inventory pressure will continue to increase, and total demand is difficult to show an anti - seasonal performance. In the short term, the 2601 contract of rebar will oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to inventory performance [2]. - **Glass**: The rise of glass futures is driven by the strengthening of upstream fuel prices and the improvement of macro - sentiment. Although the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved, the inventory reduction process provides some confidence [2]. - **Soda ash**: Currently, the trading is about cold - repair, and the key lies in the cold - repair path. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment period, and attention should be paid to the improvement of real demand [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock index futures/options**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market showed different trends. Multiple financial and electric power grid sectors had capital inflows, while precious metals and agriculture sectors had capital outflows. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indexes while controlling risk preferences [2][3]. - **Treasury bonds**: Market interest rates fluctuated, and the trend of treasury bonds was weak. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [3]. - **Precious metals**: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting, and factors such as the Fed's interest rate policy, geopolitical risks, and physical gold demand in China affect its price. Gold is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [4]. Light Industry - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports increased slightly, the supply pressure was not large, and the inventory was at a critical threshold. The cost - side support weakened, and it is expected to oscillate in a range [5]. - **Pulp**: The spot market price showed a differentiated trend, the cost support for pulp prices increased, but the demand improvement expectation remains to be verified. Pulp prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom [5]. - **Offset paper**: The spot market price was relatively stable, but the industry is in a stage of over - capacity, with stable short - term supply and poor demand. It should be treated bearishly [5]. Oil and Fat Industry - **Oils**: The supply pressure of palm oil in the producing areas increased, and the supply of domestic soybean oil may tighten in the future. Oils may oscillate widely in the short term after a previous sharp rise, and attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and the production and sales of palm oil in Malaysia [5][6]. - **Oilseeds and meals**: The total output of US soybeans increased, and the domestic supply pressure was significant. The demand was weak, and soybean meal is expected to continue to oscillate bearishly [6]. Agricultural Products Industry - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs increased slightly, and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate increased. With the increase in the supply of large pigs, the support for the overall price weakened. The price of standard pigs may decline slightly, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs may widen slightly [6]. Soft Commodities Industry - **Rubber**: The supply - side pressure decreased, the demand - side capacity utilization rate increased, and the inventory continued to decline. The price of natural rubber is expected to oscillate widely [8]. - **Polyester products**: PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF have different supply - demand situations and cost factors, and their market trends are mainly oscillating or in a wait - and - see state [8].

Report Overview - Report Date: September 18, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research Group: Shipping Research Group Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottom - building, suggesting light - position participation or waiting and seeing [4] - With liner companies significantly reducing freight rates and pre - holiday cargo volume being concerning, the near - month contracts have obvious declines, and further position - adding is not recommended. Stop - loss should be set [2] Summary by Related Content Freight Index Changes - From September 12 to September 15, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) dropped 11.71% to 903.32 points; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) fell 8.1% to 1440.24 points; the NCFI (European route) decreased 14.78% to 729.42 points; the SCFIS (US West route) rose 37.7% to 1349.84 points; the NCFI (US West route) declined 9.13% to 1216.14 points [2] - From September 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) decreased 46.33 points to 1398.11 points; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) dropped 2.1% to 1125.30 points; the SCFI European route price fell 12.24% to 1154 USD/TEU; the CCFI (European route) decreased 6.2% to 1537.28 points; the SCFI US West route rose 8.27% to 2370 USD/FEU; the CCFI (US West route) declined 2.2% to 757.45 points [2] PMI Data - Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous 49.8), service PMI preliminary value was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous 51), and composite PMI preliminary value rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, hitting the highest since May 2024 and higher than the expected 50.7. The August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous 4.5) [2] - China's August manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from last month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from last month [3] - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high; the service PMI preliminary value was 55.4; the Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 [3] Trade and Tariff Situation - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The spot price has slightly decreased, and the tariff issue has a marginal effect [4] Market and Contract Information - On September 17, the main contract 2510 closed at 1109.7, with a decline of 6.72%, a trading volume of 4.35 million lots, and an open interest of 4.96 million lots, an increase of 2092 lots from the previous day [4] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, try to go long lightly around 1200 for the 2510 contract and increase positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - loss [4] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract maintains a seasonal logic with large fluctuations. Temporarily wait and see or try with a light position [4] - Long - term strategy: Take profit when each contract rises, wait for the pull - back to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent situation [4] Policy Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4] Geopolitical Events - The EU will announce measures against Israel on September 17, including suspending trade preferences and imposing sanctions on extreme - right ministers and violent settlers, to pressure Israel to end the Gaza conflict [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Spot prices are continuously declining, the situation in the Middle East is volatile, and cargo volume before the National Day is concerning. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contract is relatively strong. Risk - preferring investors are recommended to lightly test long positions around 1200 for the 2510 contract and increase positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to subsequent market trends, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [3]. - Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or lightly try for arbitrage strategies [3]. - For long - term strategies, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Content 3.1 Freight Index Changes - On September 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1440.24 points, a decrease of 8.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1349.84 points, an increase of 37.7% from the previous period [2]. - On September 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 903.32 points, a decrease of 11.71% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 729.42 points, a decrease of 14.78% from the previous period; the NCFI (US - West route) was 1216.14 points, a decrease of 9.13% from the previous period [2]. - On September 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1398.11 points, a decrease of 46.33 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1154 USD/TEU, a decrease of 12.24% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route price was 2370 USD/FEU, an increase of 8.27% from the previous period [2]. - On September 12, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1125.30 points, a decrease of 2.1% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1537.28 points, a decrease of 6.2% from the previous period; the CCFI (US - West route) was 757.45 points, a decrease of 2.2% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - In the eurozone, the August manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51), and the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, the highest since May 2024 and higher than the expected value of 50.7. The August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2]. - In August in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an accelerated overall expansion of enterprise production and operation activities [2]. - In the US, the August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7), and the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [2]. 3.3 Contract Information - On September 16, the main contract 2510 closed at 1169.7, a decrease of 0.10%, with a trading volume of 32,600 lots and an open interest of 47,500 lots, a decrease of 255 lots from the previous day [3]. - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3]. 3.4 Geopolitical Information - On September 16, Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that the Israeli military is strongly attacking the infrastructure of Hamas armed personnel to create conditions for defeating Hamas and releasing Israeli hostages [5]. - On September 15, US President Trump said that Israel would not attack Qatar again [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Spot prices are continuously declining, the situation in the Middle East is volatile, and cargo volume before the National Day is concerning. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1] - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect. The current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3] - The main contract remains weak, while the far - month contracts are stronger. Risk - preferring investors are recommended to lightly try to go long on the 2510 contract around 1200 and increase positions on the 2512 contract around 1600. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [3] - In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see or lightly try for the arbitrage strategy. For the long - term strategy, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3] Summary According to Related Content Freight Rate Index - On September 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1440.24 points, a decrease of 8.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1349.84 points, an increase of 37.7% from the previous period [2] - On September 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 903.32 points, a decrease of 11.71% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 729.42 points, a decrease of 14.78% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1216.14 points, a decrease of 9.13% from the previous period [2] - On September 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1398.11 points, a decrease of 46.33 points from the previous period. The SCFI for the European route was 1154 USD/TEU, a decrease of 12.24% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2370 USD/FEU, an increase of 8.27% from the previous period [2] - On September 12, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1125.30 points, a decrease of 2.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1537.28 points, a decrease of 6.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 757.45 points, a decrease of 2.2% from the previous period [2] Economic Data - In the Eurozone, the manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51), and the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, with three - month consecutive improvement and the highest since May 2024, higher than the expected value of 50.7. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2] - In August in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an acceleration in the overall expansion of enterprise production and operation activities [2] - In the US in August, the S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7), and the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [2] Contract Information - On September 16, the main contract 2510 closed at 1169.7, a decrease of 0.10%. The trading volume was 32,600 lots, and the open interest was 47,500 lots, a decrease of 255 lots from the previous day [3] - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin of the company for these contracts was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 was 100 lots [3] Geopolitical Situation - On September 16, Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that the Israeli military was strongly attacking the infrastructure of Hamas armed personnel and would continue the operation until the mission was completed [5] - On September 15, US President Trump said that Israel would not attack Qatar again [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bullish [2] - Rebar: Rebound [2] - Glass: Bullish [2] - Soda ash: Rebound [2] - SSE 50 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300 Index: Upward [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High - level oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Logs: Range - bound oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish [6] - Soybean oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Palm oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating weakly [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating weakly [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating weakly [8] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating weakly [8] - Live pigs: Oscillating strongly [8] - Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: Wait - and - see [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: Wait - and - see [10] - PR: Wait - and - see [10] - PF: Wait - and - see [10] Core Views The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities and financial products, including the supply - demand relationship, price trends, and influencing factors. It provides investment ratings and suggestions for each product, considering factors such as industry policies, seasonal effects, and macro - economic indicators. For example, in the black industry, factors like steel mill production, mine policies, and demand changes affect the prices of iron ore, coking coal, and rebar; in the financial sector, policies and market sentiment impact the performance of stock indices and bonds; and in the agricultural and soft commodity sectors, factors such as weather, production, and consumption patterns play important roles [2][4][6][8][10]. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: After steel mills resumed production, hot metal output rebounded to 2.4 million tons. Global iron ore shipments increased, with Australian and Brazilian shipments up 6.482 million tons. Demand recovered, and steel mills' profit ratio declined from a high. There is limited fundamental contradiction in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether the 2601 contract can hold at the previous high [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Mine shutdown news and "anti - involution" expectations drove the double - coke futures to rebound. Supply may be weaker than last year, and demand increased as hot metal output recovered. Coke started the second round of price cuts, with a cumulative reduction of 100 - 110 yuan/ton [2]. - **Rebar**: There is a lack of macro - level drivers, and "anti - involution" policy expectations are rising. Supply remains high, inventory pressure increases, and total demand is hard to show an inverse - seasonal performance. The profit of five major steel products declined, and the 2601 contract may oscillate strongly in the short term [2]. - **Glass**: The rise of glass futures was driven by stronger upstream fuel prices and improved macro - sentiment. The "coal - to - gas" conversion in Shahe may cause price fluctuations. Although the supply - demand contradiction has not improved substantially, inventory reduction provides some confidence [2]. - **Soda ash**: Currently, trading is about cold - repair, and the key lies in the cold - repair path. The real - estate industry is in an adjustment period, and attention should be paid to the improvement of real demand [2]. Financial Sector - **Stock indices**: The performance of different stock indices varied. Some sectors had capital inflows or outflows. Policies such as the "Measures on Expanding Service Consumption" and the "Regulations on the Management of Sales Fees of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds" may impact the market. It is recommended to control risk preference and hold long positions in stock indices [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds declined, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations. Market interest rates fluctuated, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4]. Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting. Factors such as the US debt problem, geopolitical risks, Chinese physical gold demand, and the Fed's interest - rate policy affect gold prices. Silver also shows high - level oscillation. The current upward - driving logic has not completely reversed, and short - term factors include the Fed's interest - rate policy and geopolitical conflicts [4]. Light Industry and Agriculture - **Logs**: Port daily shipments increased slightly, and September arrivals are expected to be low. Supply pressure is not large, and the spot price is stable. It is expected to oscillate in a range [6]. - **Pulp**: Spot prices were strong, and the cost support from foreign prices increased. However, the paper industry's low profitability and high inventory pressure limit the demand for high - priced pulp, and prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - **Offset paper**: Spot prices partially declined. Production is stable, but it is in the seasonal off - season. There is an oversupply situation, and it should be treated bearishly [6]. - **Oils and fats**: The production of Malaysian palm oil increased, and inventory rose. Domestic soybean oil has inventory pressure, but supply may tighten later. Oils and fats may oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [6]. - **Meal products**: The US soybean yield decreased slightly, but production increased due to larger areas. Export demand is weak, and domestic supply pressure is significant. Meal products are expected to oscillate weakly [6][8]. - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs increased slightly, and the slaughtering rate rose. Although demand is still restricted by high temperatures, it is expected to improve with school openings. The price may oscillate strongly, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs may widen slightly [8]. Soft Commodities and Polyesters - **Rubber**: Supply pressure decreased in Yunnan, and production increased in Hainan. Tire factory capacity utilization rose, and inventory decreased. Rubber prices may oscillate widely [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: PX and PTA prices follow oil prices, with PX's near - month supply - demand weakening. MEG has low - level inventory and wide - balanced supply - demand in the medium term. PR and PF are affected by cost and demand factors, and their prices may oscillate or be in a wait - and - see state [10].

Price Trends - Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFIS) for Europe decreased to 1440.24 points, down 8.1% from the previous period[2] - Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for Europe fell to 729.42 points, down 14.78% from the previous period[2] - SCFIS for the US West Coast increased to 1349.84 points, up 37.7% from the previous period[2] - NCFI for the US West Coast dropped to 1216.14 points, down 9.13% from the previous period[2] Economic Indicators - Eurozone August Manufacturing PMI was 50.5, above the forecast of 49.5 and previous value of 49.8[2] - Eurozone August Services PMI initial value was 50.7, slightly below the forecast of 50.8[2] - US August Manufacturing PMI initial value reached 53.3, the highest in 39 months, exceeding the forecast of 49.5[2] Market Sentiment - Ongoing US-China trade negotiations show no substantial progress, leading to a slight decline in spot prices[3] - The main contract closed at 1163.1, with a decrease of 1.57% and a trading volume of 17,800 contracts[3] - Recommendations suggest light positions or observation due to geopolitical tensions and tariff fluctuations[3] Strategic Recommendations - Short-term strategy advises maintaining weak positions in main contracts and stronger positions in distant contracts[4] - Suggested light long positions around 1200 for the 2510 contract and around 1600 for the 2512 contract[4] - Long-term strategy recommends taking profits on high points and waiting for stabilization before making further decisions[4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bullish [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Rebound [2] - Glass: Bullish [2] - Soda ash: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Upward [2] - CSI 500: Upward [4] - CSI 1000: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High-level sideways [4] - Silver: High-level sideways [4] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish [6] - Soybean oil: Wide-range sideways [6] - Palm oil: Wide-range sideways [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range sideways [6] - Soybean meal: Sideways with a weak bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Sideways with a weak bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Sideways with a weak bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways with a weak bias [7] - Live pigs: Sideways with a strong bias [7] - Rubber: Sideways [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Sideways [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views - The iron ore market is supported by increased demand from the recovery of molten iron production and potential restocking by steel mills before the holiday, with the 2601 contract expected to test the previous high [2]. - The coking coal and coke futures have rebounded due to potential supply shortages and the approaching peak season, despite the second round of price cuts for coke [2]. - The rebar market faces high supply and weak demand, but the "anti-involution" expectation and rising costs may drive short-term strength in the 2601 contract [2]. - The glass futures have risen due to stronger upstream fuel prices and improved macro sentiment, but the market's supply-demand contradiction remains, and the key lies in the cold repair path [2]. - The stock index market has rebounded, with investors advised to control risk appetite and hold long positions, while the bond market is affected by interest rate fluctuations, and investors are recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. - The gold market is influenced by central bank gold purchases, the US debt issue, interest rates, and geopolitical risks, and is expected to remain high-level sideways [4]. - The log market has stable spot prices, reduced supply pressure, and increased daily shipments, and is expected to trade in a range [6]. - The pulp market has cost support but weak demand, and is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - The offset paper market has stable production but poor demand, and is recommended to be treated bearishly [6]. - The oil and fat market faces supply pressure but potential demand growth, and is expected to trade in a wide range [6]. - The soybean meal and related products market has high supply and weak demand, and is expected to be weak sideways [6][7]. - The live pig market has slightly increased average transaction weight and slaughter rate, but the supply of standard pigs may increase and put pressure on prices [7]. - The rubber market has reduced supply pressure, increased demand, and declining inventory, and is expected to trade sideways [9]. - The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets are affected by geopolitical factors, supply-demand changes, and cost fluctuations, and are recommended to be observed [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments increased, molten iron production recovered, and steel mills' profit margins declined, but the short-term supply-demand contradiction is limited, and the 2601 contract may test the previous high [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Supply may be tight in the second half of the year, and the approaching peak season has boosted the futures market, despite the price cuts for coke [2]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Supply remains high, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is increasing, but the "anti-involution" expectation and rising costs may drive short-term strength [2]. - Glass: The futures have risen due to stronger fuel prices and improved sentiment, but the supply-demand contradiction persists, and the key is the cold repair path [2]. - Soda ash: The market is expected to rebound, but the real estate industry's adjustment may affect demand [2]. Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The market has rebounded, with different performances among various indices, and investors are advised to control risk and hold long positions [2][4]. - Treasury bonds: Interest rate fluctuations have affected the bond market, and investors are recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. - Gold and silver: The gold market is influenced by central bank purchases, the US debt issue, interest rates, and geopolitical risks, and is expected to remain high-level sideways [4]. Light Industry - Logs: Spot prices are stable, supply pressure is low, and daily shipments have increased, and the market is expected to trade in a range [6]. - Pulp: Cost support and weak demand coexist, and the market is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - Offset paper: Production is stable, but demand is poor, and the market is recommended to be treated bearishly [6]. Oil and Fat Industry - Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil: The market faces supply pressure but potential demand growth, and is expected to trade in a wide range [6]. - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal: High supply and weak demand, and the market is expected to be weak sideways [6]. - Soybean No. 2 and Soybean No. 1: High supply and uncertain demand, and the market is expected to be weak sideways [7]. Agricultural Products Industry - Live pigs: Average transaction weight and slaughter rate have slightly increased, but the supply of standard pigs may increase and put pressure on prices [7]. Soft Commodities Industry - Rubber: Supply pressure has decreased, demand has increased, and inventory has declined, and the market is expected to trade sideways [9]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF: Affected by geopolitical factors, supply-demand changes, and cost fluctuations, and recommended to be observed [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, the game is challenging, so it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - Near - month contracts may show weak and volatile trends due to the continuous decline of spot freight rates and the intensification of the Middle - East conflict, while far - month contracts may have strong and volatile trends due to the impact of China - US economic and trade talks [3]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - On September 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1440.24 points, down 8.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1349.84 points, up 37.7% from the previous period [2]. - On September 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 903.32 points, down 11.71% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 729.42 points, down 14.78% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1216.14 points, down 9.13% from the previous period [2]. - On September 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1398.11 points, down 46.33 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1154 USD/TEU, down 12.24% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2370 USD/FEU, up 8.27% from the previous period [2]. - On September 12, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1537.28 points, down 6.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 757.45 points, down 2.2% from the previous period [2]. - On September 15, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1163.1, with a decline of 1.57%, the trading volume was 17,800 lots, and the open interest was 47,800 lots, an increase of 161 lots from the previous day [3]. Economic Indicators - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI was 50.5, the service PMI was 50.7, and the composite PMI was 51.1, showing continuous improvement [2]. - China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3, and the service PMI was 55.4, both higher than expected [2]. Geopolitical Events - On September 15, the Houthi armed forces in Yemen launched 4 drones to attack 2 Israeli targets, including 3 drones attacking Ramon Airport and 1 attacking an Israeli military target [5]. - On September 14, an air - raid alert was sounded near Ramon Airport, and the Israeli military intercepted a drone from Yemen [5]. - On September 14, Hamas suspended the cease - fire and hostage - exchange negotiations with Israel, blaming Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu for obstructing the talks [5]. Strategy Suggestions - **Short - term Strategy**: For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly test long positions near 1200 for the 2510 contract and increase long positions near 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to subsequent market trends, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see or lightly try due to large fluctuations [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amidst continuous rate cuts by liner companies and the escalating Middle - East conflict, the market is at the bottom - building stage. It's not advisable to increase positions. Given geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it's recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [2][4]. - With the continuous reduction of spot freight rates by liner companies, pessimism spreads. The market continues to decline due to unchanged supply - demand in the spot market. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Aspects Market Data - On September 8, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1566.46 points, down 11.7% from the previous period; SCFIS (US - West route) was 980.48 points, down 3.3% [3]. - On September 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 903.32 points, down 11.71% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 729.42 points, down 14.78%; NCFI (US - West route) was 1216.14 points, down 9.13% [3]. - On September 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI announced price was 1398.11 points, down 46.33 points from the previous period; SCFI European line price was 1154 USD/TEU, down 12.24%; SCFI US - West route was 2370 USD/FEU, up 8.27% [3]. - On September 12, the China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1537.28 points, down 6.2%; CCFI (US - West route) was 757.45 points, down 2.2% [3]. - On September 12, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1157.6, with a decline of 5.27%. The trading volume was 27,400 lots, and the open interest was 47,600 lots, a decrease of 1896 lots compared to the previous day [4]. Economic Indicators - In August, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous 49.8), services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous 51), and the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9 [3]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points [3]. - In August, the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous 49.8), services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous 55.7); Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 [3]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it's recommended to lightly test long positions around 1200 for the 2510 contract and add long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it's recommended to stay on the sidelines or lightly attempt arbitrage [5]. - Long - term strategy: It's recommended to take profits when prices rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pull - back before determining the next direction [5]. Special Regulations - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [5]. - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [5]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text 2. Core View of the Report - Amid continuous rate cuts by liner companies, escalating Middle - East conflicts, and a bottom - building process of the market, it is not advisable to increase positions. Instead, set stop - losses. Given geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - On September 8, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1566.46 points, down 11.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 980.48 points, down 3.3% from the previous period. On September 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 903.32 points, down 11.71% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 729.42 points, down 14.78% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 1216.14 points, down 9.13% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI announced price was 1398.11 points, down 46.33 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1154 USD/TEU, down 12.24% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2370 USD/FEU, up 8.27% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1537.28 points, down 6.2% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 757.45 points, down 2.2% from the previous period [3] Economic Indicators - In August, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous 49.8), the service PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous 51), and the composite PMI rose to 51.1, the highest since May 2024. The eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous 4.5). In China, the manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month. In the US, the August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high; the service PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous 55.7); the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 [3] Tariff and Market Situation - The Sino - US tariff extension continues without substantial progress in negotiations. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [4] Contract Information - On September 12, the main contract 2510 closed at 1157.6, down 5.27%, with a trading volume of 27,400 lots and an open interest of 47,600 lots, a decrease of 1896 lots from the previous day. The daily limit for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the company's margin for these contracts is adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all these contracts is 100 lots [4][5] Strategy Recommendations - Short - term: For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly test long positions around 1200 for the 2510 contract and add long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to subsequent market trends and do not hold losing positions. Set stop - losses. - Arbitrage: In the context of international turmoil, contracts follow seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions. - Long - term: It is recommended to take profit when contracts rise, and then judge the subsequent direction after waiting for the price to stabilize after a pull - back [5] Geopolitical News - On September 14, Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed said that Qatar will continue to mediate to end the Gaza conflict. Israel's attacks on Qatar will not stop its mediation efforts with Egypt and the US. He also said that Israel's attacks are state terrorism [6]