Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Weakening fundamentals, with potential for price decline. Attention should be paid to the continued decline of hot metal and the market's reaction to tariffs and production cuts [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Overall, they follow the trend of finished products, with the far - month 09 contract of coking coal continuing to weaken and coke facing profit contraction [2]. - Rebar: Price is likely to fall rather than rise, facing pressure from high production and weak demand in the off - season, as well as the impact of increased tariffs [2]. - Glass: Fundamentals lack upward momentum, with demand difficult to recover significantly, and it is in a weak operation [2]. - Stock index futures/options: It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices, as the market's risk - aversion sentiment has eased [4]. - Treasury bonds: It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly, with a narrow - range rebound in the market [4]. - Gold and silver: They are expected to be in a relatively strong and volatile state, with various factors such as trade policies and demand affecting their prices [4]. - Pulp: Expected to be in a weak and volatile state, affected by factors such as cost and demand [6]. - Logs: Expected to be in a volatile state, with improved fundamentals and relatively stable prices [6]. - Oils and fats: Expected to be volatile, affected by policies, production, and consumption seasons [6]. - Meal: Expected to be in a weak and volatile state, affected by trade and supply - demand factors [6]. - Soybean No. 2: Expected to be in a weak and volatile state, affected by trade disputes and supply [6]. - Soybean No. 1: Expected to be in a slightly bearish and volatile state [6]. - Live pigs: Futures prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern, affected by supply and market expectations [8]. - Rubber: Expected to be in a range - bound and volatile state in the short term, affected by supply, demand, and policies [8]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: All in a wait - and - see state, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [9]. Core Viewpoints - The global economic situation is complex, with Trump's tariff policy intensifying trade tensions and affecting various industries. The manufacturing PMI has declined, and the economic data shows a certain degree of weakness. However, the logistics demand continues to recover [2][4]. - In the commodity market, different products have different supply - demand situations. Some are affected by production, consumption seasons, and policies, while others are affected by cost and inventory factors. The market sentiment is also affected by trade policies and geopolitical risks [2][4][6][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Global shipments have rebounded, but demand has weakened, with iron - water production declining for three consecutive weeks. Port inventories are still decreasing, but attention should be paid to the continuous decline of iron - water. Trump's tariff increase has a negative impact on the market [2]. - Coking coal and coke: There are rumors of a 20% resource tax on coal exports from Mongolia. Coking coal production is at a high level, and downstream replenishment is weak. Coke supply is in an oversupply situation, and the overall trend follows that of finished products [2]. - Rebar: Trump's tariff increase has weakened market sentiment. Supply is at a high level, while demand is poor, with a significant decline in real - estate investment and a seasonal decline in manufacturing demand [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Glass: The fundamentals are not good, with the industry's start - up rate and production increasing, but demand difficult to recover significantly due to the real - estate adjustment [2]. Financial Futures - Stock index futures/options: The performance of major stock indices has been positive, with some sectors having capital inflows and outflows. The manufacturing PMI has declined, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has increased slightly, and the market has a narrow - range rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: They are affected by multiple factors such as currency, finance, and risk - aversion. The original upward - driving logic has not completely reversed, and they are expected to be in a relatively strong and volatile state [4]. Forestry Products - Pulp: The cost support has weakened, and demand has entered the off - season, so it is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [6]. - Logs: The fundamentals have improved, with relatively stable prices, and it is expected to be in a volatile state [6]. Oils and Fats and Meals - Oils and fats: Supply is abundant, and it is in the traditional consumption off - season. They are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as weather and production - sales [6]. - Meal: Affected by trade and supply - demand factors, it is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [6]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The market price has fluctuated, with supply and demand showing different trends. Futures prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [8]. - Rubber: Supply is in a pattern of short - term tightness and long - term looseness, and demand has limited improvement. It is expected to be in a range - bound and volatile state in the short term [8]. Chemical Products - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: All in a wait - and - see state, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is filled with a mix of long and short information, causing significant fluctuations in the market. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3] - It is necessary to focus on the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the relaxation of tariff policies, and the final result of the court ruling [3] Group 3: Summary of Specific Information Freight Index Information - On June 2, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1252.82 points, up 0.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1718.11 points, down 0.1% from the previous period [2] - On May 30, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1676.25 points, up 51.55% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1067.59 points, up 36.25% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 3585.23 points, up 89.23% from the previous period [2] - On May 30, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 2072.71 points, up 486.59 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1587 USD/TEU, up 20.50% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US - West route was 3275 USD/FEU, up 57.92% from the previous period [2] - On May 30, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1117.61 points, up 0.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1375.62 points, down 1.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 944.06 points, up 4.0% from the previous period [2] Market and Policy Information - The US has restored Trump's tariff policy, indicating that tariffs could reach up to 15%, and then extended partial exemptions for China under Section 301 tariffs. Some shipping companies raised freight rates for mid - to late June [3] - The US court's ruling that the government overstepped its authority may boost macro - sentiment, but the spot market remains weak in price support. The easing of the China - US trade war may lead to a rush to ship within 90 days [2] Contract Information - On May 30, the main contract 2508 closed at 2075.3, down 0.25%, with a trading volume of 102,700 lots and an open interest of 41,800 lots, a decrease of 4754 lots from the previous day [3] Strategy Information - Short - term strategy: For the 2506 contract, focus on the logic of basis convergence. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to lightly short when it rebounds above 2250 and set stop - losses [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a situation where near - term freight rates are stronger than long - term ones. Pay attention to the court's ruling result, and for now, focus on positive arbitrage structures [4] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rallies, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4] Other Information - The daily trading limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 has been adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 has been adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4]

| 铁矿：本期全球铁矿石发运总量环比回落，但主流矿山发运量保持平稳回 | 升态势，需求端铁水产量连续三周下行，基本面边际走弱。钢材现实需求 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 继续走弱，五大钢材整体面临供增需减格局，成材下跌使得对原料采购刚 | 铁矿石 | 偏空 | 需减少。铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，说明当前 | 240 | 的高铁水仍旧能驱动港 | | | | | | | | | 口去库，关注后续铁水持续回落状况。特朗普再次提高钢铁关税至 | 50%， | 资金和情绪端持续表现出偏空，关注市场对关税的消化反应以及减产的推 | | | | | | | | | | | | 进程度，本轮贸易冲突缓和带来的反弹行情里已经介入空单的投资者，则 | 继续持有。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 煤焦：焦煤产量高位，下游补库动力不足，523 | 家样本矿山原煤库存刷出 | 历年新高，随着铁水产量下滑以及焦煤供应的持续增加，远月 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro sentiment is generally bullish, and with the entry of long - position funds, the market pulled up rapidly in the afternoon with significant volatility. Risk - preferring investors can consider short - selling on rallies [2][3]. - It's necessary to focus on the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the easing of tariff policies, and the final result of the court ruling [3]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary Based on Related Content 3.1 Freight Rate Index - **SCFIS and NCFI**: On May 26, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1247.05 points, down 1.4% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1719.79 points, up 18.9%. On May 23, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1106.08 points, up 9.02%; for the European route, it was 783.58 points, up 4.35%; for the US - West route, it was 1894.63 points, up 4.50% [2]. - **SCFI and CCFI**: On May 23, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1586.12 points, up 106.73 points. The SCFI European route price was 1317 USD/TEU, up 14.12%; the US - West route was 3275 USD/FEU, up 5.95%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1107.40 points, up 0.2%; for the European route, it was 1392.61 points, down 2.6%; for the US - West route, it was 908.14 points, up 3.6% [2]. 3.2 PMI Data - Eurozone: In May, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous 49); the service PMI preliminary value was 48.9 (expected 50.3, previous 50.1); the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.5 (expected 50.7, previous 50.4). The Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 (expected - 11.5, previous - 19.5) [2]. - US: In May, the Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.3 (a three - month high, expected 49.9, previous 50.2); the service PMI preliminary value was 52.3 (a two - month high, expected 51, previous 50.8); the composite PMI preliminary value was 52.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.6) [3]. 3.3 Market Conditions - On May 29, the main contract 2508 closed at 2131.0, with a 6.34% increase, a trading volume of 131,600 lots, and an open interest of 46,600 lots, an increase of 2813 lots from the previous day [3]. - Spot freight rates are gradually stabilizing, which supports the market to some extent. However, due to the unclear peak - season momentum, there was intense competition between long and short positions in the morning. In the afternoon, the market price was quickly pulled up and then fluctuated slightly, possibly due to the generally bullish macro situation and the entry of some long - position funds [3]. 3.4 Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: For the 2506 contract, focus on the logic of basis convergence. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to lightly short - sell when it rebounds above 2250 and set a stop - loss [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a situation where near - term freight rates are stronger than long - term ones. It is necessary to pay attention to the result of the court ruling. Currently, the market is volatile, and it is advisable to mainly use positive - spread arbitrage [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rallies. Wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before making further judgments [4]. 3.5 Other Information - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 18% [4]. - The margin of the company for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [4].

交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 5 月 30 日星期五 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-5-30） | | | | 铁矿：前期政策与情绪驱动的上涨动力逐步减弱，短期内回归基本面。钢 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 材现实需求继续走弱，五大钢材整体面临供增需减格局，成材下跌使得对 | | | | | 原料采购刚需减少。当前钢厂盈利率小幅回落，本期日均铁水产量环比回 | | | 铁矿石 | 偏空 | 落 1.69 万吨至 241.91 万吨，铁水减量超市场预期，叠加外需出口提前透 | | | | | 支，在全年总需求无增量的基础下，会形成明显的前高后低格局。铁矿港 | | | | | 口库存水平仍相对偏高，对价格形成一定的压力。本轮贸易冲突缓和带来 | | | | | 的反弹行情里已经介入空单的投资者，则继续持有。 | | | | | 煤焦：焦煤产量高位，五一节后下游补库动力不足，523 家样本矿山原煤 | | | | | 库存刷出历年新高，随着铁水产量下滑以及焦煤供应的持续增加，远月 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡偏弱 | 09 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US court's ruling that the Trump administration overstepped its authority in imposing tariffs may boost macro - sentiment, but the spot market remains weak in price support. Attention should be paid to the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the easing of tariff policies, and the final result of the ruling [4]. - The spot freight rate shows a slight shock without an obvious peak - season trend, and the futures market fluctuates downward. Future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary of Related Content 3.1 Freight Rate Indexes - On May 26, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1247.05 points, down 1.4% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1719.79 points, up 18.9% from the previous period [3]. - On May 23, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1106.08 points, up 9.02% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 783.58 points, up 4.35% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1894.63 points, up 4.50% from the previous period [3]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1586.12 points on May 23, up 106.73 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1317 USD/TEU, up 14.12% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US - West route was 3275 USD/FEU, up 5.95% from the previous period [3]. - On May 23, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1107.40 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1392.61 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 908.14 points, up 3.6% from the previous period [3]. 3.2 PMI Data - The eurozone's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4, the highest in 33 months; the April services PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 50.5). The April composite PMI preliminary value was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The April Sentix investor confidence index was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [3]. - China's March manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The March Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a four - month high [3]. - The US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.7 (expected 49.1, March final value 50.2); the services PMI preliminary value was 51.4 (expected 52.8, March final value 54.4); the composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 52.2, March final value 53.5) [4]. 3.3 Futures Market - On May 28, the main contract 2508 closed at 1949.5, down 4.08%, with a trading volume of 77,000 lots and an open interest of 43,800 lots, an increase of 594 lots from the previous day [4]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The 2506 contract is based on the logic of basis convergence. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to lightly test short positions when it rebounds above 2250 and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate trend. Attention should be paid to the result of the court ruling, and for now, it is mainly in a positive - spread structure [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profit when each contract rallies and wait for the callback to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [5]. 3.5 Contract Rules - The daily price limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 16% [5]. - The company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 26% [5]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bearish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak oscillation [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Weak [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Upward [4] - CSI 1000: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Decline [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Oscillation [6] - Logs: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillatory and bearish [6] - Palm oil: Oscillatory and bearish [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillatory and bearish [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillatory and bearish [6] - Live pigs: Oscillation [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Wait-and-see [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The driving force for the previous policy and sentiment-driven rise in the iron ore market is gradually weakening, and it will return to fundamentals in the short term. The real demand for steel products continues to weaken, and the overall pattern of supply increase and demand decrease in the five major steel products has led to a reduction in the raw material procurement demand due to the decline in steel product prices. The high profit rate of steel mills and the significant reduction in molten iron production, combined with the pre - empted external demand exports, will result in a distinct pattern of high in the front and low in the back under the condition of no increase in total annual demand. The relatively high inventory level of iron ore ports also exerts pressure on prices [2]. - For coking coal, production is at a high level, and the downstream replenishment motivation is insufficient after the May Day holiday. The raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines has reached a record high. With the decline in molten iron production and the continuous increase in coking coal supply, the far - month 09 contract will continue to weaken. For coke, as the coking coal price falls, the cost of coking enterprises' incoming coal decreases, but steel mills have initiated a second price cut, squeezing the profit of coking enterprises. With the arrival of high - temperature weather, downstream demand weakens, and the inventory pressure of coking enterprises increases. The pattern of coke supply surplus remains unchanged, and coal and coke generally follow the trend of steel products [2]. - The driving force for the previous policy and sentiment - driven rise in the rebar market is gradually weakening. Although the demand decline rhythm is relatively slow in the short term, steel supply increases while demand decreases. The total inventory is still in the process of destocking, but the impact of the rainy season will drag down terminal demand, and inventory destocking may slow down or even increase in mid - June. Steel prices face periodic pressure. With the phased repair of long - process steel mill profits, blast furnace restarts continue, and supply remains at a high level. External demand exports are pre - empted, and real estate investment has declined across the board, resulting in a pattern of high in the front and low in the back under the condition of no increase in total annual demand [2]. - For glass, although there are rumors of planned cold - repair and production cuts by Hubei glass manufacturers, and the production and sales situation has improved, there is no substantial positive in the fundamentals. The supply of float glass has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased from a two - month high, which has improved market sentiment. However, in the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment period, and glass demand is difficult to recover significantly. There is a lack of driving force to push up prices during the transition from the peak season to the off - season [2]. - In the financial market, the performance of stock indexes was mixed in the previous trading day. Some sectors had capital inflows, while others had outflows. The financial data of state - owned enterprises showed that the total operating income was flat compared with the previous year, and the total profit decreased slightly. The asset - liability ratio increased slightly. The issuance of local government bonds showed certain characteristics. The sentiment in the stock index futures market has improved, and long positions can be held. The bond market has narrow - range fluctuations, and long positions in bonds can be held with a light position [2][4]. - For precious metals, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The currency, financial, and commodity attributes of gold, as well as the impact of geopolitical risks and trade policies, all affect the gold price. Although the logic driving the current gold price increase has not completely reversed, the Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may cause short - term fluctuations. The silver price also shows high - level oscillation [4]. - For pulp, the decrease in raw material prices weakens the support for pulp prices. The low profitability of the papermaking industry, high inventory, and weak demand during the off - season are negative factors. However, the price increase notices issued by paper mills may boost market sentiment, and pulp prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - For logs, the daily shipment volume of log ports has increased slightly, but it is difficult to reach a high level due to the off - season. The supply from New Zealand is expected to decrease, and the inventory has increased slightly. The cost - side negative factors may weaken, and the fundamentals have marginally improved. Log prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - For oils and fats, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly due to increased production and decreased domestic consumption. Although the export potential may be stimulated, the production increase is higher than the export increase, and inventory may continue to accumulate. The supply of the three major oils and fats is abundant, and it is the traditional consumption off - season, so the price is expected to show an oscillatory and bearish trend [6]. - For meal products, the new - crop inventory of US soybeans may further tighten, but the large domestic soybean arrivals, increased oil mill operating rates, and improved domestic inventory have alleviated the supply pressure. Meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. - For live pigs, the average slaughter weight has increased slightly, with regional differences. The demand of slaughtering enterprises is relatively stable, but terminal consumption demand has declined seasonally. Although it is the traditional consumption off - season, the strong demand for secondary fattening supports the price. The cost of leading enterprises provides support, and pig prices are expected to oscillate [8]. - For rubber, short - term supply is under pressure due to weather disturbances in domestic and foreign rubber - producing areas, and the raw material supply is tight. The import volume has decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has increased, but the terminal demand has not improved substantially, and inventory continues to accumulate. Rubber prices are expected to be affected by macro - sentiment and policies and maintain an oscillatory pattern [8]. - For polyester products, PX prices are expected to follow the trend of oil prices. PTA is mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations. MEG has a relatively good short - term supply - demand situation but is subject to large macro - sentiment fluctuations. Polyester bottle - grade chips and polyester staple fibers are affected by factors such as raw material supply, downstream orders, and production cuts, and their prices are expected to show a weakening trend with limited decline space [9]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: The previous policy - and sentiment - driven rise is losing momentum, and it will return to fundamentals. Steel demand weakens, and iron ore inventory exerts pressure. Investors who have short positions can continue to hold [2]. - Coal and coke: Coking coal production is high, and downstream replenishment is weak. Coke supply surplus persists, and the 09 contract of coking coal may weaken. Steel mills' price cuts squeeze coking enterprise profits [2]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The rise momentum weakens, demand declines, and supply remains high. The rainy season will affect inventory destocking, and steel prices face pressure [2]. - Glass: There are rumors of production cuts, and production and sales have improved, but fundamentals lack substantial positives. Real estate adjustment restricts demand recovery [2]. - Soda ash: The transition from peak to off - season lacks driving force to push up prices, and attention should be paid to downstream demand recovery [2]. Financial Market - Stock indexes: Performance is mixed, and sector capital flows vary. Financial data of state - owned enterprises and local government bond issuance have certain characteristics. Stock index futures sentiment improves, and long positions can be held [2][4]. - Bonds: Market interest rates are consolidating, and bond prices fluctuate in a narrow range. Long positions in bonds can be held with a light position [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and multiple factors affect prices. Although the driving logic has not reversed, policies may cause short - term fluctuations. Prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillation [4]. Light Industry - Pulp: Raw material price decline weakens support, and off - season demand is weak. Price increase notices may boost sentiment, and prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - Logs: Shipment volume increases slightly, supply from New Zealand may decrease, and inventory accumulates. Cost - side negatives weaken, and prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Oils and Fats and Meal Products - Oils and fats: Malaysian palm oil inventory increases, and the supply of the three major oils and fats is abundant. It is the consumption off - season, and prices are expected to be oscillatory and bearish [6]. - Meal products: US soybean inventory may tighten, but domestic supply is abundant, and prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Slaughter weight increases with regional differences, demand is stable but terminal consumption weakens. Secondary fattening supports prices, and pig prices are expected to oscillate [8]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply is affected by weather, import volume changes, and tire enterprise inventory accumulates. Terminal demand has not improved substantially, and prices are expected to oscillate [8]. Polyester Products - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: PX follows oil prices, PTA is affected by raw materials, MEG is subject to macro - sentiment, and PR and PF are affected by raw material supply, downstream orders, and production cuts, with prices expected to show a weakening trend [9].

2025年5月28日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 观 x , 507 地缘政治冲突事件、极端天气、外盘原油剧烈波动 提示 SCFIS与期货价格走势 上海集表相指数 EC2510 - EC2512 - EC2602 EC2508 CFISEE 12,000.00 6,100 8000.00 6,000.00 4,000.00 2.600 2,100 2,000.00 1.600 0.00 1,100 (2) 20120 20 11 20 20 20 10 600 200 100 200 200 00 00 110 000 000 000 000 100 000 EC价差 EC星差 -06-12 -06-08 -06-10 -06-02 -06-04 -2506重要 -5508重差 -2510直差 -2512星星 =2602 == -260411 800 4,800 4,300 600 3,800 400 3,300 2,800 200 2,300 1,800 0 1,300 800 -200 300 -200 -400 -700 -600 -1,200 -1,700 -800 6/20 7/20 8/20 10 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 5 月 28 日星期三 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-5-28） | | | | | 铁矿：前期政策与情绪驱动的上涨动力逐步减弱，短期内回归基本面。钢 材现实需求继续走弱，五大钢材整体面临供增需减格局，成材下跌使得对 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 原料采购刚需减少。当前钢厂盈利率水平较高，上期日均铁水产量环比回 | | | | 铁矿石 | 偏空 | 落 1.17 万吨至 243.6 万吨，铁水减量超市场预期，叠加外需出口提前透支， | | | | | | 在全年总需求无增量的基础下，会形成明显的前高后低格局。铁矿港口库 | | | | | | 存水平仍相对偏高，对价格形成一定的压力。本轮贸易冲突缓和带来的反 | | | | | | 弹行情里已经介入空单的投资者，则继续持有。 | | | | | | 煤焦：焦煤产量高位，五一节后下游补库动力不足，523 家样本矿山原煤 | | | | | | 库存刷出历年新高，随着铁水产量下滑以及焦煤供应的持续增加，远月 | | ...

2025年5月27日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 6月线上运价出现松动,盘面承压下行,符合日报预期,已建议冲高止盈,等待回调机会 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 5月26日 | 5月23日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1247.05点，较上期下跌1.4% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1106.08点，较上期上涨9.02% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1719.79点，较上期上涨18.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）783.58点，较上期上涨4.35% | | 5月23日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1894.63点，较上期上涨4.50% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1586.12点，较上期上涨106.73点 | 5月23日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1317USD/TEU, 较上期上涨14.12% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1107.40点，较上期上涨0.2% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线327 ...