Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bearish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating weakly [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Weak [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 50: Rebounding [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Upward [2] - CSI 1000: Upward [2] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Declining [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: Strongly oscillating [4] - Pulp: Oscillating [6] - Logs: Oscillating [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating bearishly [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating bearishly [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating bearishly [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating [6] - No. 2 soybeans: Oscillating [6] - No. 1 soybeans: Oscillating bearishly [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating [8] - Rubber: Oscillating [8] - PX: On the sidelines [9] - PTA: On the sidelines [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Views of the Report - The driving force for the previous policy and sentiment-driven rise in the iron and steel industry is gradually weakening, and it will return to fundamentals in the short term. The real demand for steel products continues to weaken, and the overall pattern of supply increase and demand decrease for the five major steel products persists. The decline in steel prices reduces the rigid demand for raw material procurement. The profitability rate of steel mills is currently high, and the temporary easing of Sino-US relations brings new restocking demand. However, the daily average pig iron output in the previous period decreased by 11,700 tons to 2.436 million tons, exceeding market expectations. The port inventory level of iron ore remains relatively high, exerting pressure on prices. In the long term, domestic demand is weak, and investors who have already entered short positions during the rebound caused by the easing of the trade conflict should continue to hold [2]. - The output of coking coal is at a high level, and the downstream restocking motivation is insufficient after the May Day holiday. The raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines has reached a record high. As pig iron output declines and coking coal supply continues to increase, the far-month 09 contract will continue to weaken. For coke, as coking coal prices fall, the cost of coking enterprises' incoming coal decreases, and most enterprises remain profitable. However, steel mills have initiated a second round of price cuts on coking enterprises today, squeezing coking enterprises' profits. With the arrival of high-temperature weather in various regions, downstream demand weakens, the phenomenon of steel mills controlling production increases, and the inventory pressure of coking enterprises rises. The overall inventory of coke has increased month-on-month, and the pattern of oversupply in the coking coal and coke market remains unchanged, generally following the trend of steel products [2]. - The driving force for the previous policy and sentiment-driven rise in rebar is gradually weakening. The demand decline is relatively slow in the short term, and steel supply is increasing while demand is decreasing. The total inventory is still in the process of destocking, but the impact of the rainy season will drag down terminal demand, and inventory destocking may slow down or even reverse in mid-June. Steel prices face periodic pressure. The profits of long-process steel mills have been repaired periodically, and the blast furnaces under maintenance have resumed production, keeping the supply at a high level. Domestic demand declines seasonally. Attention should be paid to the rush export demand brought about by the 90-day suspension of the 24% tariff. It is expected that steel prices will remain oscillating at a low level in the short term, waiting for a clear signal of demand decline [2]. - There are rumors in the market that glass manufacturers in Hubei plan to cut production, and production and sales have improved. Recently, some production lines have been restarted after cold repair, and the daily melting volume has fluctuated slightly. The daily output of float glass remained stable last week. The spot price of float glass has declined slightly, and profits have also been squeezed. The production enthusiasm of manufacturers in the Shahe area is relatively high, leading to a significant increase in inventory. Both the national manufacturers' inventory and the Shahe area have seen substantial inventory accumulation. The market sentiment of buying up but not buying down is strong, and downstream traders and processing enterprises are highly cautious. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment period, and the year-on-year decline in housing completion area is relatively large, making it difficult for glass demand to recover significantly. As the peak season transitions to the off-season, the fundamentals lack the driving force for an upward trend. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand [2]. - For stock index futures and options, on the previous trading day, the CSI 300 index closed down 0.57%, the SSE 50 index closed down 0.46%, the CSI 500 index closed up 0.29%, and the CSI 1000 index closed up 0.65%. Funds flowed into the leisure products and power generation equipment sectors, while flowing out of the pharmaceutical and automobile sectors. The General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Improving the Modern Enterprise System with Chinese Characteristics," which proposes to improve the enterprise income distribution system, promote enterprises to establish a reasonable wage growth mechanism, deepen the reform of the wage distribution system of state-owned enterprises, implement the wage total budget cycle system in eligible state-owned enterprises, promote listed companies to carry out medium- and long-term incentives, formulate stable and long-term cash dividend policies, strengthen the fiduciary duties of controlling shareholders to the company, and support listed companies to introduce institutional investors with a shareholding ratio of more than 5% as active shareholders. Moody's has decided to maintain China's sovereign credit rating at "A1" with a negative outlook. The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Finance stated that since the fourth quarter of last year, the Chinese government has implemented a package of macroeconomic control policies, leading to an improvement in economic indicators, stable market expectations and confidence, and enhanced medium- and long-term sustainability of debt. Moody's decision to maintain the stability of China's sovereign credit rating is a positive reflection of China's economic prospects. In the next step, a series of incremental and existing policies will work together and continue to show results, providing solid support for high-quality economic development. China will remain confident and focused on its own affairs regardless of external changes. The Sino-US tariff issue has achieved phased results, the external market has stabilized, market risk aversion has eased, and investors should hold long positions in stock indices [2][4]. - For Treasury bonds, the yield of the 10-year Chinese Treasury bond has decreased by 2 basis points, FR007 has increased by 7 basis points, and SHIBOR3M has remained unchanged. The central bank announced that on May 26, it conducted 382 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate through quantity tender, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, a bid volume of 382 billion yuan, and a winning volume of 382 billion yuan. According to Wind data, 135 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 247 billion yuan. The market interest rate is consolidating, and Treasury bonds are oscillating in a narrow range. Investors should hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - In the context of a high-interest-rate environment and the reconstruction of globalization, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to the central bank's gold purchases, which are the key and reflect the "decentralization" and risk aversion needs. In terms of its monetary attribute, the debt problem has caused cracks in the currency credit of the US dollar, highlighting the de-fiat currency attribute of gold in the process of de-dollarization. In terms of its financial attribute, in the global high-interest-rate environment, the substitution effect of gold as a zero-coupon bond for bonds has weakened, and its sensitivity to the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds has decreased. In terms of its risk aversion attribute, geopolitical risks have marginally weakened, but Trump's tariff policy has intensified global trade tensions, and market risk aversion remains strong, becoming an important factor driving up the gold price in the short term. In terms of its commodity attribute, the demand for physical gold in China has increased significantly, and the central bank has restarted gold purchases since November last year and has been increasing its holdings for six consecutive months. Currently, the logic driving up the gold price has not completely reversed. The Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy may be short-term disturbing factors. It is expected that this year's interest rate policy will be more cautious, and the evolution of the tariff policy will dominate the change in market risk aversion. According to the latest US data, the non-farm payrolls data shows that the labor market is relatively strong, with non-farm employment exceeding market expectations and the unemployment rate stable at 4.2%. The latest PCE data shows that inflation has slowed down, with core PCE rising 2.6% year-on-year, in line with market expectations, and PCE rising 2.3% year-on-year, slightly higher than market expectations. The CPI in April rose 2.3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and indicating a continuous decline in inflation. However, inflation is expected to rise again under the influence of tariffs. In the short term, the uncertainty in the trade environment has raised concerns about the global economy, geopolitical risks continue to rise, and the risk aversion demand for gold remains strong. Coupled with the weak US dollar index, it supports the rise in the gold price. It is expected that the gold price will remain strongly oscillating. Attention should be paid to this week's PCE data and meeting minutes [4]. - The spot market price of pulp loosened slightly on the previous trading day, with the price of some softwood pulp in the spot market falling by 20 - 50 yuan/ton and that of some hardwood pulp loosening by 30 - 50 yuan/ton. The latest FOB price of softwood pulp has decreased by 55 US dollars to 770 US dollars/ton, and that of hardwood pulp has decreased by 70 US dollars to 560 US dollars/ton. The decline in the cost price weakens the support for pulp prices. The profitability of the papermaking industry is at a low level, paper mills' inventories continue to accumulate, and they are not willing to accept high-priced pulp, purchasing raw materials only based on rigid demand. The demand has entered the off-season, which is negative for pulp prices. Paper mills have successively issued price increase notices, which is beneficial for boosting industry sentiment. It is expected that pulp prices will oscillate [6]. - The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports last week was 62,100 cubic meters, an increase of 700 cubic meters month-on-month. The downstream has entered the off-season, and it is expected to be difficult to return to the level of 70,000 cubic meters. The volume of logs shipped from New Zealand to China in March was 1.659 million cubic meters, a 32% increase from the previous month. New Zealand has started to cut production, and the log shipment volume has decreased. It is expected that the domestic arrival volume will start to decrease. The expected arrival volume last week was 421,000 cubic meters, a 52% increase month-on-month. As of last week, the log port inventory was 3.43 million cubic meters, a 20,000-cubic-meter increase month-on-month. The spot market price has been relatively stable. The spot market price in Shandong has remained stable at 750 yuan/cubic meter, a 10-yuan decrease from last week, and that in Jiangsu has remained stable at 770 yuan/cubic meter, also a 10-yuan decrease from last week. The latest CFR quotation has decreased by 4 US dollars to 110 US dollars/cubic meter, and it is expected that the June quotation will remain the same. The negative impact on the cost side may weaken. In the short term, the spot market price is relatively stable, demand has improved month-on-month, the arrival volume in the past two weeks has been lower than the average level, and the supply pressure has relatively decreased. The fundamentals of the log market have marginally improved. It is expected that log prices will oscillate [6]. - The inventory of Malaysian palm oil jumped to a six-month high of 1.87 million metric tons in April due to a surge in production and a decline in domestic consumption, a 19.4% month-on-month increase. Indonesia has raised the export tax on palm oil, while Malaysia has lowered the export tax on crude palm oil in June. The price of Indonesian palm oil has lost its competitive edge compared to Malaysia, which is conducive to stimulating the export potential of Malaysian palm oil. However, Malaysian palm oil is in the seasonal production increase cycle, and the production increase is higher than the export increase, so inventory may continue to accumulate. The US biofuel policy still has great uncertainty. South American soybeans have achieved a record high yield, and the domestic arrival volume of soybeans has increased significantly. As the overall operating rate of oil mills has increased, the inventory of soybean oil has started to rise. Although the import profit of palm oil is still negative, palm oil purchases have increased, further replenishing domestic inventory. The supply of the three major oils is abundant. Currently, it is the traditional off-season for oil consumption, and the pre-Dragon Boat Festival stocking is about to end. It is expected that oil prices will oscillate bearishly. Attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean-producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - The new crop inventory of US soybeans may become even tighter, leaving less room for error during the critical summer growing season for US soybeans, whose sown area is already expected to decrease. Rainfall in the US Midwest has slowed down spring sowing, and there are concerns about soybean production cuts in Argentina due to heavy rain. The increase in the premium of Brazilian soybeans has driven up the cost of imported soybeans. The domestic arrival volume of soybeans in May has surged to about 11 million tons, and customs clearance has accelerated recently. With the large arrival of imported soybeans, the soybean supply situation has become more relaxed, and the overall operating rate of oil mills has recovered to over 50%. The inventory of soybean meal has increased, and the trading sentiment has improved after the continuous decline in the market. The spot trading volume has increased, and prices have stopped falling and stabilized, alleviating the domestic supply pressure. It is expected that soybean meal prices will oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the weather in North America, the logistics delays in Brazil, and the soybean arrival situation [6]. - The Sino-US trade relations have eased, the USDA report is moderately positive, the export of new Brazilian soybeans has accelerated, and there are concerns about soybean production cuts in Argentina due to heavy rain. According to the shipping and berthing forecasts of major soybean-producing countries, the domestic soybean arrival volume is expected to be relatively large from May to June, exceeding 11 million tons each month. Soybean customs clearance has accelerated, and the soybean inventory has continued to rise. The overall operating rate of oil mills has recovered to over 50%, and the domestic soybean spot price has remained stable. It is expected that the price of No. 2 soybeans will oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the weather in South American soybean-producing areas and the soybean arrival situation [6]. - In terms of supply, the latest data shows that the average slaughter weight of live pigs across the country shows a slight upward trend, with an average trading weight of 126.5 kilograms, a 0.07% month-on-month increase. Regionally, the average trading weight in different provinces varies. Due to the adjustment of the procurement strategy of some local slaughter enterprises, which have reduced the purchase of large-weight pigs, and the decline in the inventory of large pigs after the previous concentrated slaughter, the average trading weight in some areas has decreased. On the other hand, most provinces' breeding farms still maintain the strategy of holding back pigs for weight gain, artificially extending the breeding cycle and driving up the slaughter weight. Slaughter enterprises' demand for standard-weight pigs of 125 - 140 kilograms remains stable, driving up the overall average purchase weight. In terms of demand, the average operating rate of key slaughter enterprises is 34.76%, a 0.18-percentage-point increase from last week. After the festival, the terminal consumption demand has declined seasonally, the downstream procurement and stocking enthusiasm has weakened, and there is no significant boost factor on the consumption side. It is expected that the operating rate of slaughter enterprises will remain oscillating or show a slight decline. After the festival, the consumption demand decreases cyclically, the procurement volume of terminal catering and households has decreased, and the sales of pork products have slowed down. Although it is the traditional off-season for consumption and the slaughter demand remains low, the strong demand for secondary fattening supports prices. It is expected that the live pig market will show a pattern of tight supply in May. The self-breeding and self-raising cost of leading enterprises is supported at around 13,000 yuan per head. There is no obvious upward driving force in the market, and it is expected that pig prices will remain oscillating [8]. - On the supply side, the weather disturbances in domestic and foreign rubber-producing areas have intensified, and rubber supply is under short-term pressure. Recently, there has been frequent rainfall in the main natural rubber-producing areas at home and abroad, significantly interfering with rubber tapping operations. The rainfall in the Southeast Asian producing areas is expected to increase in the coming week, and heavy rain is expected in Myanmar and the western part of Thailand (north of the equator), significantly restricting rubber tapping activities. The weather conditions in the producing areas south of the equator are relatively stable, with rainfall in the medium to low range, having limited impact on rubber tapping. As a result, the supply of rubber raw materials has tightened, and the purchase

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The extension of US - EU tariffs to July has led to high - level oscillations in the overall market, in line with the daily report's expectations. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and wait for correction opportunities [1]. - Tariffs have become a means in trade negotiations, adding significant uncertainties to future shipping trends. While the easing of the China - US trade war may boost the digestion of US - bound shipping capacity in 90 days, price wars among alliances cannot be avoided. Attention should be paid to the US - bound shipping capacity allocation within 90 days and the feedback of terminal demand under the easing of tariff policies [3]. - In the short - term, due to the volatile external policies, it is difficult to operate. It is recommended to focus on medium - to - long - term contracts if participating. Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate pattern, but the window period is short and the fluctuations are large, so a positive arbitrage structure is adopted for now. In the long - term, it is recommended to take profits on rallies, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then try to go long on freight rate rebounds [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Indexes - **May 12th**: The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1265.30 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1446.36 points, down 0.6% from the previous period [2]. - **May 23rd**: The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1106.08 points, up 9.02% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 783.58 points, up 4.35% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1894.63 points, up 4.50% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1586.12 points, up 106.73 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1317 USD/TEU, up 14.12% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 3275 USD/FEU, up 5.95% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1107.40 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1392.61 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 908.14 points, up 3.6% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - **Eurozone**: In May, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.4, a 33 - month high; in April, the preliminary service PMI was 49.7 (expected 50.5), and the comprehensive PMI was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The April Sentix investor confidence index was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [2]. - **China**: In March, the manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a four - month high [2]. - **US**: In April, the preliminary S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 50.7 (expected 49.1, March final value 50.2); the preliminary service PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, March final value 54.4); the preliminary comprehensive PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, March final value 53.5) [3]. 3.3 Futures Market - On May 23rd, the main contract 2508 closed at 2224.9, up 2.73%. The trading volume was 74,200 lots, and the open interest was 49,200 lots, with a reduction of 2478 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Market Analysis - The freight rates online in early June are relatively firm, which supports the market to some extent. However, due to the stable cargo volume in the spot market, the market may decline after the peak US - bound shipping season, suppressing the market. Under the game between long and short positions, the overall market fluctuates significantly. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: Due to the volatile external policies, it is difficult to operate. If participating in each contract, it is recommended to focus on medium - to - long - term contracts [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate pattern, but the window period is short and the fluctuations are large. For now, a positive arbitrage structure is adopted [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for each contract, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then try to go long on freight rate rebounds [4]. 3.6 Contract Rules - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 16%. - The company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 26%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short-term long allocation, medium to long-term bearish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Sideways to weak [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Sideways [2] - Glass: Sideways [2] - Soda ash: Sideways [2] - Shanghai 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Sideways [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Sideways [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Sideways [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Decline [3] - Gold: High-level sideways [3] - Silver: Bullish sideways [3] - Pulp: Sideways [5] - Logs: Sideways [5] - Soybean oil: Sideways [5] - Palm oil: Sideways [5] - Rapeseed oil: Sideways [5] - Soybean meal: Rebound [5] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways [5] - Live pigs: Sideways [7] - Rubber: Sideways [7] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Wait-and-see [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Viewpoints - The upward momentum driven by policies and sentiment in the early stage is gradually weakening, and various industries are mainly influenced by fundamentals, supply and demand, and external factors [2][3][5][7][8] - The market is affected by factors such as Sino-US relations, tariff policies, interest rate policies, and seasonal factors, with significant uncertainties [2][3][5][7][8] Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Short-term, it returns to fundamentals, with high valuation in the black sector and mainly long allocation. Steel mill profitability is high, and there is new restocking demand. However, iron ore port inventory is relatively high, and iron water production has decreased. Medium to long-term, it is bearish due to weak domestic demand [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal are loose, and the profit of coking enterprises has improved. Steel mill iron water production has slightly decreased, and coke supply has increased, with an overall oversupply situation following the trend of finished products [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The upward momentum driven by policies and sentiment is weakening. Demand is falling, and supply is increasing. The total inventory is still in the process of destocking, but the impact of the rainy season may slow down or reverse the destocking. Steel prices are under phased pressure [2] - **Glass**: There are rumors of production cuts by Hubei glass manufacturers, and production and sales have improved. However, production lines have resumed operation, and inventory has increased significantly. In the long term, demand is difficult to recover significantly due to the adjustment of the real estate industry [2] - **Soda ash**: Sideways, mainly affected by the overall situation of the glass industry [2] Financial Industry - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indexes. The central bank and the foreign exchange bureau plan to improve the management of overseas direct listing funds of domestic enterprises. The issuance of the first 50-year special treasury bond has been completed, and the bond market is mainly affected by supply pressure and capital conditions [2][3] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10-year treasury bond is flat, and the market interest rate is consolidating. The treasury bond market is in a narrow sideways range, and long positions can be held lightly [3] - **Precious metals**: - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The current upward logic remains unchanged, and it is mainly affected by the Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy. It is expected to maintain a high-level sideways trend [3] - **Silver**: Bullish sideways, affected by factors such as inflation and market sentiment [3] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price is stable, but the cost price has decreased, and the demand is in the off-season. The paper mill inventory is accumulating, and it is expected to be sideways [5] - **Logs**: The downstream is in the seasonal off-season, and the demand is average. The supply pressure is relatively weak, and it is expected to be in a bottom sideways pattern [5] Oil and Fat Industry - **Oils and fats**: The inventory of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly, and the supply of the three major oils is abundant. It is currently in the traditional consumption off-season, but there is pre-festival stocking demand. It is expected to be sideways [5] - **Meal products**: The inventory of US soybeans may tighten further, and the cost of imported soybeans has increased. The domestic soybean supply has become loose, and the inventory of soybean meal has increased. It is expected to rebound in the short term [5] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average slaughter weight has increased slightly, and the demand of slaughter enterprises is stable. The post-festival consumption demand has decreased seasonally, but the strong demand for secondary fattening supports the price. It is expected to be sideways [7] - **Rubber**: The supply is temporarily under pressure due to weather disturbances in domestic and foreign producing areas, and the raw material supply is tight. The tire enterprise operating rate has increased, but the terminal demand has not improved substantially. It is expected to be sideways [7] Polyester Industry - **PX**: The US traditional peak season supports oil prices, and PX inventory has been continuously reduced, with the PXN spread repaired. It is expected to fluctuate with oil prices [8] - **PTA**: The US traditional peak season supports oil prices, and PTA inventory is being reduced. It is mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [8] - **MEG**: The domestic production load has decreased, and the port is expected to destock. The raw material end is weak, and the market fluctuates widely due to macro sentiment [8] - **PR**: There is some cost support, but downstream follow-up is insufficient. The polyester bottle chip market may adjust slightly stronger [8] - **PF**: Downstream orders are insufficient, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. However, there is still some cost support, and the polyester staple fiber market is expected to fluctuate narrowly [8]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - MSK slightly increased the spot rate at the beginning of June, and the futures market opened low and closed high, meeting the daily report's expectations. It is recommended to take profits when the price rises and wait for a callback opportunity [1]. - There are differences in the future freight rate trends and the implementation of price increases, resulting in intense long - short competition in the futures market. The slight increase in MSK's price at the beginning of June drove the market to rise slightly [3]. - The tariff has become a means of trade negotiation, adding significant uncertainties to future shipping trends. Although the easing of the Sino - US trade war may boost the digestion of US - bound shipping capacity, price wars among shipping alliances cannot be avoided [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Freight Rate Indexes - On May 12, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1265.30 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1446.36 points, down 0.6% from the previous period. On May 16, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1479.39 points, down 134.22 points from the previous period, with the European route price at 1154 USD/TEU, down 0.60%, and the US - West route at 3091 USD/FEU, up 31.70% [2]. - On May 16, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1014.55 points, up 6.53% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 750.91 points, down 0.78% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1813.08 points, up 23.18% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1104.88 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1430.35 points, down 1.0%; the CCFI for the US - West route was 876.92 points, up 2.2% [2]. 3.2 PMI Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in May was 49.4, the highest in 33 months; the preliminary value of the service PMI in April was 49.7 (expected 50.5). The preliminary value of the Eurozone's composite PMI in April was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in April was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [2]. - In March, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a four - month high [2]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in April was 50.7 (expected 49.1, final value in March 50.2); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, final value in March 54.4); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, final value in March 53.5) [3]. 3.3 Futures Market - On May 22, the main contract 2508 closed at 2206.0, down 0.95%, with a trading volume of 91,300 lots and an open interest of 51,600 lots, a decrease of 1405 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies in the short term, the operation is difficult. If participating in each contract, it is recommended to focus on the medium - to - long - term [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a situation where the near - term freight rate is stronger than the long - term, but the window period is short and the fluctuations are large. Currently, it is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the price of each contract rises, and then wait for the price to stabilize after a callback and continue to try to go long on the freight rate rebound [4]. 3.5 Other Information - The US is negotiating with Hamas through intermediaries in Doha to promote a cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel [5]. - The European Commission plans to levy a 2 - euro tax on small packages entering the EU, most of which come from China [5]. - Geopolitical conflicts, extreme weather, and sharp fluctuations in the external crude oil market are factors affecting the shipping market [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short-term long allocation, medium and long-term short allocation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating weakly [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury Bond: Declining [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong oscillation [4] - Pulp: Oscillating [5] - Logs: Bottom oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Oscillating [5] - Palm oil: Oscillating [5] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating [5] - Soybean meal: Rebounding [5] - Rapeseed meal: Rebounding [5] - Soybean No. 2: Rebounding [5] - Soybean No. 1: Rebounding [5] - Live pigs: Oscillating [8] - Rubber: Strong oscillation [8] - PX: On the sidelines [8] - PTA: On the sidelines [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Viewpoints - The previous upward momentum driven by policies and sentiment in the iron ore, rolled steel, and rebar markets is gradually weakening, and they will return to fundamentals in the short term. The coal and coke market follows the trend of finished products, and the glass market lacks upward momentum in the off-season [2]. - The stock index market shows different trends, and the bond market is in a narrow oscillation. The gold market is affected by factors such as interest rate and tariff policies, and the silver market is expected to oscillate strongly [2][4]. - The pulp and log markets are in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the oil and fat market is expected to oscillate. The meal market may rebound, and the agricultural product market shows different trends [5][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The short-term upward momentum weakens, and it returns to fundamentals. It has a relatively high valuation in the black sector and is mainly allocated long. The daily pig iron output decreases, the port inventory is relatively high, and it should be treated with a short bias in the medium and long term [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal are loose, the profit of coking enterprises improves, the pig iron output of steel mills decreases slightly, and the supply of coke increases. The overall market follows the trend of finished products [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The short-term demand decline is slow, the supply increases and the demand decreases, the inventory is still in the process of destocking, but the Meiyu season may affect the terminal demand. The steel price faces phased pressure [2]. - **Glass**: The daily melting volume fluctuates slightly, the spot price drops slightly, the profit is squeezed, the inventory increases significantly, and the demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long term [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock index futures/options**: The performance of different stock index futures is different. The capital inflows into the banking and land transportation sectors, and the capital outflows from the fine chemical and chemical fiber sectors. The stock index long positions can be held [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond rises, the market interest rate consolidates, and the Treasury bond trend is in a narrow oscillation. The Treasury bond long positions can be held lightly [4]. - **Gold and silver**: The gold pricing mechanism is changing, and the current upward logic has not completely reversed. The silver market is expected to oscillate strongly [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price drops slightly, the cost support weakens, the papermaking industry profit is low, the demand is in the off-season, and the pulp price is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Logs**: The downstream demand is in the off-season, the supply pressure is relatively weak, the inventory is decreasing, and the log price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. Oil and Fat Industry - **Oil and fat**: The supply of the three major oils is abundant, the current is the traditional consumption off-season, but the spot consumption improves before the Dragon Boat Festival. The oil and fat market is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Meal**: The inventory of US soybeans may be further tightened, the planting progress in some areas of the US Midwest is slow, and the meal market may rebound [5]. Agricultural Products Industry - **Live pigs**: The overall supply is tight, the demand is in the off-season, the secondary fattening demand supports the price, and the pig price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Rubber**: The supply is relatively stable, the cost support is significant, the demand is gradually recovering, the inventory accumulation speed slows down, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate strongly [8]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: The domestic PX load oscillates and declines, the demand side PTA load rebounds, and the PX price is expected to fluctuate with the oil price [8]. - **PTA**: The PXN spread is around $260/ton, the spot TA processing margin is around 392 yuan/ton, the TA load drops to around 77%, and the PTA supply and demand are in a state of destocking [9]. - **MEG**: The domestic MEG load drops to around 58.25%, the port inventory decreases, the raw material end is weak, and the MEG market fluctuates widely [9]. - **PR**: The cost support is weak, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the polyester bottle chip price may be adjusted weakly [9]. - **PF**: The downstream orders are insufficient, the cost increase may not continue, and the polyester staple fiber market is expected to be sorted weakly [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The addition of tariffs to small packages by the EU and the less - than - expected price increase by MSK have led to wide - ranging fluctuations in the shipping market, which is in line with the daily report's expectations. The market shows intense long - short gaming, and attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and current freight rates [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Data - On May 12, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1265.30 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1446.36 points, down 0.6% [2]. - On May 16, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1014.55 points, up 6.53% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 750.91 points, down 0.78%; for the US - West route, it was 1813.08 points, up 23.18% [2]. - On May 16, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1479.39 points, down 134.22 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1154 USD/TEU, down 0.60%; the SCFI US - West route price was 3091 USD/FEU, up 31.70% [2]. - On May 16, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1104.88 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1430.35 points, down 1.0%; for the US - West route, it was 876.92 points, up 2.2% [2]. - On May 21, the main contract 2508 closed at 2121.1, down 7.18%, with a trading volume of 100,500 lots and an open interest of 53,000 lots, an increase of 1266 lots from the previous day [3]. Economic Indicators - The eurozone's preliminary April manufacturing PMI was 48.7 (expected 47.5), the services PMI was 49.7 (expected 50.5), and the composite PMI was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.9). The April Sentix investor confidence index was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous - 2.9) [2]. - In March, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The Caixin China manufacturing PMI in March was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The preliminary April US S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 50.7 (expected 49.1, March final 50.2), the services PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, March final 54.4), and the composite PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, March final 53.5) [3]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: Given the volatile external policies, it is difficult to operate in the short - term. If participating in each contract, it is recommended to focus on the medium - to - long - term [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff relaxation, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate, but the window period is short and the fluctuations are large. Currently, it is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts reach high levels, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then try to go long on the freight rate rebound [4]. Other Information - Tariffs have become a means of trade negotiation, adding a major disturbing factor to the future of maritime shipping. Although the easing of the China - US trade war may lead to a rush of shipments in 90 days, which is beneficial for the digestion of US - route shipping capacity, price wars among alliances cannot be avoided [3]. - There are differences in the future freight rate trends and price announcements. The market has intense long - short gaming, with wide - ranging fluctuations and an obvious decline at the end of the session [3]. - The Israeli government has recalled some of its negotiators for the detained persons in Gaza, leaving only a small team in Doha, Qatar [5]. - The EU plans to impose a 2 - euro tax on small packages entering the EU, most of which are from China [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short - term long - allocation, medium - to - long - term short - allocation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating weakly [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 50: Rebounding [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Upward [4] - CSI 1000: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Declining [4] - Gold: High - level oscillating [4] - Silver: Strong - side oscillating [4] - Pulp: Oscillating [6] - Logs: Oscillating [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating [6] - Soybean meal: Rebounding [6] - Rapeseed meal: Rebounding [6] - Soybean No. 2: Rebounding [6] - Soybean No. 1: Rebounding [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating [8] - Rubber: Oscillating [8] - PX: On - hold [8] - PTA: On - hold [9] - MEG: On - hold [9] - PR: On - hold [9] - PF: On - hold [9] Core Viewpoints - For the black industry, the previous policy - and sentiment - driven upward momentum is weakening, and the market is gradually returning to fundamentals. Each variety has different supply - demand situations and price trends [2] - In the financial market, with the phased results of Sino - US tariffs and the stabilization of the external market, the market risk - aversion sentiment has eased, and long positions in stock index futures can be held. Treasury bonds are in a narrow - range oscillation, and light long positions can be held [4] - In the precious metals market, the pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and various factors such as currency, finance, and geopolitics affect its price, which is expected to oscillate strongly [4] - In the light industry and agricultural products markets, various products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, seasonality, and policies, and most are expected to oscillate [6][8] - In the polyester market, due to factors such as oil prices, raw material prices, and supply - demand, most products are in a state of waiting and watching [9] Summaries by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The previous upward momentum is weakening, and it returns to fundamentals. In the short - term, it is supported by high steel mill profitability and new restocking demand, but port inventory is high. In the medium - to - long - term, domestic demand is weak, so a bearish view is taken [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: The supply - demand of coking coal is loose, and the profit of coking enterprises has improved. Coke supply is increasing, and the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, following the trend of finished products [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The previous upward momentum is weakening, demand is falling back, and inventory may increase. Steel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [2] - **Glass**: Some production lines have resumed production, inventory has increased significantly, and demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long - term. It is in the transition from peak to off - season, and the focus is on downstream demand recovery [2] Financial Market - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day's stock index performance varied, and funds flowed in and out of different sectors. With the phased results of Sino - US tariffs, long positions in stock index futures can be held [2][4] - **Treasury bonds**: Market interest rates are consolidating, and Treasury bonds are in a narrow - range oscillation. Long positions can be held lightly [4] - **Precious metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and various factors affect its price. It is expected to oscillate strongly, and silver is also expected to oscillate strongly [4] Light Industry and Agricultural Products - **Pulp**: The cost price has decreased, the papermaking industry's profitability is low, and demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate [6] - **Logs**: Downstream demand is in the off - season, supply and demand are both weak, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [6] - **Oils and fats**: Supply is abundant, it is the traditional consumption off - season, but pre - holiday stocking has improved spot consumption. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to weather and production - sales [6] - **Meal products**: The inventory of new US soybeans may be tighter, and domestic soybean supply is turning loose. Meal products are expected to rebound in the short - term, and attention should be paid to weather and logistics [6] - **Live pigs**: Supply is relatively tight, demand is in the off - season, and cost provides support. Prices are expected to oscillate [8] - **Rubber**: Supply is relatively stable, demand is recovering, inventory accumulation is slowing down, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly [8] Polyester Market - **PX**: Oil prices are weakly consolidating, PX load is oscillating downwards, and it is expected to fluctuate with oil prices [8] - **PTA**: The possible acceleration of Russia - Ukraine peace talks may suppress oil price rebounds, and it is in a state of supply - demand destocking, mainly affected by raw material prices [9] - **MEG**: The supply - demand is not bad, but the macro - sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the disk fluctuates widely [9] - **PR**: Oil price callback weakens cost support, and the market may adjust weakly and steadily [9] - **PF**: Downstream orders are insufficient, and cost support is unstable. The market is expected to be weakly sorted [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping market is affected by multiple factors including tariff policies, geopolitical situations, and spot freight rates. The market is in a state of multi - empty game with uncertain outcomes for the implementation of liner companies' price increases [3]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates in the future [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On May 12, the NCFI (composite index) was 1014.55 points, up 6.53% from the previous period; the SCFIS (European route) was 1265.30 points, down 2.9%; the NCFI (European route) was 750.91 points, down 0.78%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1446.36 points, down 0.6%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1813.08 points, up 23.18% [2]. - On May 16, the SCFI was 1479.39 points, down 134.22 points from the previous period; the CCFI (composite index) was 1104.88 points, down 0.1%; the SCFI European route price was 1154 USD/TEU, down 0.60%; the CCFI (European route) was 1430.35 points, down 1.0%; the SCFI US West route was 3091 USD/FEU, up 31.70%; the CCFI (US West route) was 876.92 points, up 2.2% [2]. Economic Data - In March, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - In April, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI initial value was 48.7 (expected 47.5), the service PMI initial value was 49.7 (expected 50.5), and the composite PMI initial value was 50.1 (expected 50.3) [2]. - In April, the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI initial value was 50.7 (expected 49.1), the service PMI initial value was 51.4 (expected 52.8), and the composite PMI initial value was 51.2 (expected 52.2) [3]. Market Influencing Factors - Tariffs have been added as a trade negotiation tool, increasing uncertainty in the shipping market. The easing of the Sino - US trade war may lead to a rush of shipments in 90 days, which is beneficial for the digestion of US - bound shipping capacity, but price wars among alliances cannot be avoided [3]. - The Houthi rebels announced a maritime blockade of Haifa, Israel on May 19, which may affect shipping routes and freight rates [5]. - The new US government's tariff policy has brought more negative impacts than expected, causing uncertainty for shipping companies [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies, it is difficult to operate. It is recommended to focus on medium - to - long - term contracts if participating [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate pattern, but the window period is short and volatile. Currently, a positive arbitrage structure is recommended [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when prices reach a high level, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then try to go long on the freight rate rebound [4]. Contract Information - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 16% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 26% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short - term high - level allocation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak shock [2] - Rebar and wire rod: Shock [2] - Glass: Shock [2] - Soda ash: Shock [2] - CSI 300: Shock [4] - SSE 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 500: Upward [4] - CSI 1000: Upward [4] - 2 - year treasury bond: Shock [4] - 5 - year treasury bond: Shock [4] - 10 - year treasury bond: Decline [4] - Gold: High - level shock [4] - Silver: Strong - biased shock [4] - Pulp: Shock [6] - Logs: Shock [6] - Soybean oil: Shock [6] - Palm oil: Shock [6] - Rapeseed oil: Shock [6] - Soybean meal: Weak - biased shock [6] - Rapeseed meal: Weak - biased shock [6] - Soybean No. 2: Weak - biased shock [6] - Soybean No. 1: Shock [6] - Live pigs: Shock [8] - Rubber: Strong - biased shock [8] - PX: Wait - and - see [8] - PTA: Wait - and - see [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Viewpoints - The driving force for the previous policy - and - sentiment - driven rise in the black industry has gradually weakened, and it will return to fundamentals in the short term. The financial market is affected by factors such as LPR cuts and deposit rate cuts, and the precious metal market is influenced by multiple factors including central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks. The light industry and agricultural product markets are facing different supply - and - demand situations, and the polyester industry is affected by factors such as oil prices and raw material supply [2][4][6][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The driving force for the previous policy - and - sentiment - driven rise has weakened. Supply is expected to increase, iron - water production has declined from a high level, port inventory is relatively high, and demand is the key. The improvement in steel - demand expectations due to the easing of the trade war is offset by the seasonal weakening of actual demand. Conservative investors can try long - short spreads, and aggressive investors can focus on short - selling opportunities in the far - month contracts [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: The supply - and - demand pattern of coking coal remains loose. Coking enterprises' profits have improved, but steel mills' procurement willingness has decreased, and coke supply has increased, with an overall supply - surplus pattern [2] - **Rebar**: The driving force for the previous rise has weakened, demand is falling slowly in the short term, inventory is still being depleted, but the rainy season may affect inventory depletion. Supply remains high, and attention should be paid to the impact of the suspension of a 24% tariff on exports [2] - **Glass**: Some production lines have resumed operation, daily output has fluctuated slightly, spot prices have fallen slightly, and inventory has increased significantly. The real - estate industry is in an adjustment period, and demand is difficult to recover significantly [2] Financial Market - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indexes. The latest LPR has been cut, and banks have lowered deposit rates. The Sino - US tariff issue has achieved phased results, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment has eased. Long positions in stock indexes can be held [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond has risen, and market interest rates are consolidating. The central bank has carried out reverse - repurchase operations, and long positions in treasury bonds can be held lightly [4] - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, currency credit, and geopolitical risks are affecting its price. The logic for the current price increase has not completely reversed, and the price is expected to be in a high - level shock [4] Light Industry and Agricultural Products - **Pulp**: Spot prices are stable, raw - material prices have fallen, the papermaking industry's profitability is low, and demand is in the off - season. Pulp prices are expected to be in a shock [6] - **Logs**: Downstream demand is in the off - season, supply pressure has weakened, and prices are expected to be in a bottom - level shock [6] - **Oils and fats**: Palm oil production is in a seasonal increase period, and inventory has risen. The supply of three major oils is abundant, and it is in the traditional consumption off - season, but pre - festival stocking has improved spot consumption. Prices are expected to be in a shock [6] - **Meals**: Sino - US trade relations have eased, US soybean inventories may tighten, and domestic soybean supply has become more abundant. Meal prices are expected to be in a weak - biased shock [6] - **Live pigs**: The average slaughter weight has increased slightly, demand from slaughter enterprises has decreased, and post - festival consumption has declined seasonally. However, secondary fattening demand provides support, and prices are expected to be in a shock [8] - **Rubber**: Domestic rubber output is stable, Thai raw - material prices are high, demand from tire enterprises is recovering, inventory accumulation has slowed down, and prices are expected to be in a strong - biased shock [8] Polyester Industry - **PX**: The acceleration of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks may suppress oil - price rebounds, PX load has recovered, and prices are expected to fluctuate with oil prices [8] - **PTA**: The acceleration of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks may suppress oil - price rebounds, PXN spreads are around $272/ton, and short - term supply and demand are in a de - stocking state, mainly affected by raw - material price fluctuations [9] - **MEG**: Domestic production load has decreased, ports are expected to de - stock, raw - material prices are weak, and the market fluctuates widely due to macro - sentiment fluctuations [9] - **PR**: Mainstream polyester factories may cut production, and prices may be adjusted downward due to cost factors [9] - **PF**: Although downstream buyers are cautious, international oil prices have risen, and supply - side factors are favorable. The market is expected to be in a narrow - range consolidation [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - European port congestion has intensified, with a 24 - hour strike in Antwerp. The market is oscillating at a high level, in line with the daily report's expectations. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and wait for pull - back opportunities [1]. - The addition of tariffs as a trade negotiation tool adds significant uncertainty to future shipping trends. Although shipping companies are trying to hold up prices, the easing of the China - US trade war may lead to a rush of shipments within 90 days, which is beneficial for the digestion of US - bound shipping capacity, but price wars among alliances cannot be avoided [2]. - The 2508 contract has become the main contract, possibly due to the explosive shipment of US - bound goods, driving up European and American freight rates. Shipping companies have successively announced price increases, and bullish sentiment has risen. Although the SCFIS index has slightly declined, the market is still oscillating upwards [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shipping Market Conditions - **May 16th Shipping Indexes**: The NCFI (comprehensive index) was 1014.55 points, up 6.53% from the previous period; the SCFIS (European route) was 1265.30 points, down 2.9%; the NCFI (European route) was 750.91 points, down 0.78%; the SCFIS (US - West route) was 1446.36 points, down 0.6%; the NCFI (US - West route) was 1813.08 points, up 23.18%. The SCFI was 1479.39 points, down 134.22 points; the CCFI (comprehensive index) was 1104.88 points, down 0.1%; the SCFI European route price was 1154 USD/TEU, down 0.60%; the CCFI (European route) was 1430.35 points, down 1.0%; the SCFI US - West route was 3091 USD/FEU, up 31.70%; the CCFI (US - West route) was 876.92 points, up 2.2% [1]. - **May 19th Futures Market**: The main contract 2508 closed at 2387.9, up 5.84%, with a trading volume of 85,100 lots and an open interest of 54,100 lots, an increase of 5292 lots from the previous day [2]. Economic Data - **Eurozone April Data**: The manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 48.7 (expected 47.5); the services PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 50.5); the composite PMI preliminary value was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The Sentix investor confidence index was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [1]. - **China March Data**: The manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a four - month high [1]. - **US April Data**: The S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.7 (expected 49.1, March final value 50.2); the services PMI preliminary value was 51.4 (expected 52.8, March final value 54.4); the composite PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, March final value 53.5) [2]. Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: Given the volatile external policies, it is difficult to operate. If participating in each contract, it is recommended to focus on the medium - to - long - term [3]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Against the backdrop of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate situation. However, the window period is short and the fluctuations are large. For now, focus on positive spreads [3]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for each contract, wait for the pull - back to stabilize, and then try to go long on the freight rate rebound [3]. Contract Rules - **Price Limits**: For contracts from 2506 - 2604, the price limit is 16% [3]. - **Margin**: For contracts from 2506 - 2604, the company's margin requirement is 26% [3]. - **Daily Open - Position Limit**: For all contracts from 2506 - 2604, the daily open - position limit is 100 lots [3]. Geopolitical and Policy Events - Israel's prime minister has approved the immediate resumption of humanitarian aid to Gaza [4]. - The new US government's tariff policy has had a greater negative impact on the US and global economies than expected, and has brought uncertainty to the operations of shipping companies [4].