Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the documents. 2. Core Views - The market is affected by factors such as China - US trade talks, tariff policies, and spot freight rates. Under the current situation, the market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, and the spot market lacks significant positive news, making the futures market prone to decline and difficult to rise [3]. - Attention should be paid to the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the relaxation of tariff policies, and the final result of the court's ruling [3]. 3. Specific Summaries Market Conditions - On June 9, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1622.81 points, up 29.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 2185.08 points, up 27.2% from the previous period. On June 6, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1123.64 points, up 5.25% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 3259.14 points, down 9.10% from the previous period [2]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 2240.35 points on June 6, up 167.64 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European line was 1667 USD/TEU, up 5.04% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US - West route was 5606 USD/FEU, up 8.39% from the previous period [2]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1154.98 points on June 6, up 3.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1397.02 points, up 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 1034.94 points, up 9.6% from the previous period [2]. - On June 11, the main contract 2508 closed at 2001.5, down 2.10%, with a trading volume of 55,100 lots and an open interest of 44,600 lots, a decrease of 891 lots from the previous day [3]. Economic Data - The eurozone's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous value 49); the May services PMI preliminary value was 48.9 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.1); the May composite PMI was 49.5 (expected 50.7, previous value 50.4). The eurozone's May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 (expected - 11.5, previous value - 19.5) [2]. - The May Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [2]. - The US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3, a three - month high (expected 49.9, previous value 50.2); the services PMI preliminary value was 52.3, a two - month high (expected 51, previous value 50.8); the composite PMI preliminary value was 52.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.6) [2]. Trade Data - In the first five months of this year, ASEAN was China's largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 3.02 trillion yuan, up 9.1%, accounting for 16.8% of China's total foreign trade value. Exports to ASEAN were 1.9 trillion yuan, up 13.5%; imports from ASEAN were 1.12 trillion yuan, up 2.3% [5]. - The EU was China's second - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 2.3 trillion yuan, up 2.9%, accounting for 12.8%. Exports to the EU were 1.57 trillion yuan, up 7.7%; imports from the EU were 728.33 billion yuan, down 6.1% [5]. - The US was China's third - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 1.72 trillion yuan, down 8.1%, accounting for 9.6%. Exports to the US were 1.27 trillion yuan, down 8.7%; imports from the US were 447.51 billion yuan, down 6.3% [5]. - China's total imports and exports to countries along the Belt and Road Initiative in the same period were 9.24 trillion yuan, up 4.2%. Exports were 5.34 trillion yuan, up 10.4%; imports were 3.9 trillion yuan, down 3.2% [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For the 2506 contract, focus on the logic of basis convergence; for the 2508 contract, it is recommended to lightly short when it rebounds above 2250 and set a stop - loss [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff relaxation, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a situation where the near - term freight rate is strong and the long - term freight rate is weak. Pay attention to the court's ruling result. Currently, use a positive arbitrage structure [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Other Information - The daily trading limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 has been adjusted to 16% [4]. - The margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 has been adjusted to 26% [4]. - The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4].

16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-12） | 铁矿：本期全球铁矿石发运总量环比回升，主流矿山发运量保持平稳回升 | 态势，需求端铁水产量环比回落 | 0.1 | 万吨至 | 241.8 | 万吨，连续四周下行， | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基本面供需逐步宽松。铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，说明当前 | 240 | 的高铁水 | 铁矿石 | 逢高沽空 | 仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水持续回落状况。特朗普再次提高钢铁 | | | | | 关税至 | 50%，资金和情绪端表现出偏空。产业端淡季，后续利润或逐步收 | 缩，钢厂缓慢减产，策略上，前期空单建议继续持有，情绪性反弹可酌情 | | | | | | | | 加仓。 | 煤焦：部分煤矿因完成月度生产任务而停产或减产，但炼焦煤整体高供应 | | | | | | | | | 弱需求格局难以缓解。焦煤产量高位，下游补库动力不足，523 | 家样本矿 | 山原煤库存刷出历年新高，随着铁水产量下滑以及焦煤供应的持续增加， | 煤焦 | 反弹 | | | | | ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 6 月 11 日星期三 交易提示 | | | | 看到，美方代表团主要成员包括美国财政部长贝森特、美国贸易代表格里 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 中证 500 | 上行 | 尔和美国商务部长卢特尼克。贝森特负责宏观经济和金融问题，是特朗普 | | | | | 政府关税战略执行的关键人物。格里尔主要管辖范围就是关税，更像是美 | | | | | 方处理各类贸易谈判的"专业谈判官"。新加入的卢特尼克相对更聚焦于 | | | | | 产业层面，比如各行业的出口、进口、市场准入等问题。国新办举办新闻 | | | 中证 1000 | 上行 | 发布会，国家发改委等六部门介绍进一步保障和改善民生有关政策情况。 | | | | | 预计今年支持社会事业的中央预算内投资规模将比"十三五"末提高 30% | | | | | 以上；统筹用好中央预算内投资和超长期特别国债，支持高校持续改善办 | | | | | 学条件；积极推进低保等社会救助政策扩围增效，研究制定加快发展服务 | | | 2 年期国债 | 震荡 | 类 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS has risen significantly, fulfilling positive expectations. Market sentiment is generally pessimistic, and risk - takers can consider lightly shorting at high prices [2]. - Attention should be paid to the results of the Sino - US meeting. Without more positive news, the market is more likely to fall than rise. Key factors to watch include the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under tariff policy easing, and the final ruling result [4]. - Amid the Sino - US economic and trade consultations, although SCFIS has risen sharply, the positive sentiment has mostly subsided. The market is in a range - bound oscillation, and future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Index Changes - On June 9, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1622.81 points, up 29.5% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 2185.08 points, up 27.2% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 2240.35 points, up 167.64 points from the previous period. The SCFI European route price was 1667 USD/TEU, up 5.04% from the previous period; the US - West route price was 5606 USD/FEU, up 8.39% from the previous period [3]. - On June 6, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1669.44 points, down 0.41% from the previous period; the European route was 1123.64 points, up 5.25% from the previous period; the US - West route was 3259.14 points, down 9.10% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1154.98 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the European route was 1397.02 points, up 1.6% from the previous period; the US - West route was 1034.94 points, up 9.6% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous 49); services PMI preliminary value was 48.9 (expected 50.3, previous 50.1); composite PMI was 49.5 (expected 50.7, previous 50.4). The May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 (expected - 11.5, previous - 19.5) [3]. - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [3]. - US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3, a three - month high (expected 49.9, previous 50.2); services PMI preliminary value was 52.3, a two - month high (expected 51, previous 50.8); composite PMI preliminary value was 52.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.6) [3]. Market and Policy Information - As of June 9, the main contract 2508 closed at 2065.6, down 2.55%, with a trading volume of 55,700 lots and an open interest of 44,100 lots, a decrease of 2100 lots from the previous day [4]. - The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism is being held in the UK, and the market is in a wait - and - see mode [4]. - Short - term strategy: For the 2506 contract, focus on the logic of basis convergence; for the 2508 contract, it is recommended to lightly short when it rebounds above 2250 and set a stop - loss [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate pattern. Attention should be paid to the court's ruling, and currently, a positive arbitrage structure is mainly adopted [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. - The daily price limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 has been adjusted to 16%, the company's margin for these contracts has been adjusted to 26%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [5]. Trade Data - In the first five months of this year, ASEAN was China's largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 3.02 trillion yuan, up 9.1%, accounting for 16.8% of China's total foreign trade. Exports to ASEAN were 1.9 trillion yuan, up 13.5%; imports from ASEAN were 1.12 trillion yuan, up 2.3% [6][8]. - The EU was China's second - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 2.3 trillion yuan, up 2.9%, accounting for 12.8%. Exports to the EU were 1.57 trillion yuan, up 7.7%; imports from the EU were 7283.3 billion yuan, down 6.1% [6]. - The US was China's third - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 1.72 trillion yuan, down 8.1%, accounting for 9.6%. Exports to the US were 1.27 trillion yuan, down 8.7%; imports from the US were 4475.1 billion yuan, down 6.3% [6]. - China's total imports and exports to countries along the Belt and Road Initiative were 9.24 trillion yuan, up 4.2%. Exports were 5.34 trillion yuan, up 10.4%; imports were 3.9 trillion yuan, down 3.2% [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound and short [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rebar: Volatile [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index Futures/Options: Volatile [2][4] - Shanghai 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2][4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Volatile [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Volatile [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High - level volatile [4] - Silver: Strong - side volatile [4] - Pulp: Weak - side volatile [6] - Logs: Volatile [6] - Edible oils: Weak - side volatile [6] - Meal products: Rebound [6] - Live pigs: Volatile [8] - Rubber: Volatile [8] - PX: On - the - fence [8][10] - PTA: Try shorting at high prices [10] - MEG: On - the - fence [10] - PR: On - the - fence [10] - PF: On - the - fence [10] Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand relationship in the black - series commodities market is gradually loosening, with the iron ore market facing the impact of reduced demand and increased tariffs, and the coking coal and coke markets suffering from high supply and weak demand [2]. - The real - estate market remains in an adjustment period, which restricts the demand for glass [2]. - The stock index shows a certain degree of differentiation, and the market sentiment is affected by economic data and policies [4]. - The price of gold is influenced by multiple factors such as central - bank gold purchases, inflation, and trade policies [4]. - The pulp market is under pressure due to cost reduction and weak demand [6]. - The supply of logs is expected to decrease, while the demand remains relatively stable [6]. - The edible - oil market is in a weak - side volatile state due to factors such as production increase and seasonal consumption [6]. - The meal - product market is expected to rebound, affected by weather conditions and supply - demand relationships [6]. - The live - pig market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain weakly volatile [8]. - The rubber market presents a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the price lacks strong upward momentum [8]. - The polyester - related product markets have different supply - demand situations, and the prices are affected by cost and downstream demand [8][10]. Summary by Categories Black - Series Commodities - **Iron ore**: The global iron - ore shipping volume has rebounded, but the iron - water production has declined for four consecutive weeks, and the supply - demand relationship is gradually loosening. The port inventory is still decreasing, but attention should be paid to the continuous decline of iron - water production. Trump's tariff increase has a negative impact on the market. It is recommended to hold short positions and add positions during emotional rebounds [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Some coal mines have stopped or reduced production, but the high - supply and weak - demand pattern is difficult to change. The coke enterprises' profits will be compressed, and the inventory pressure is increasing. The market mainly follows the trend of finished products [2]. - **Rebar**: Trump's tariff increase has weakened the market sentiment. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is poor. The total inventory of steel products is decreasing, but the decline has slowed down. The price is likely to fall rather than rise [2]. Building Materials - **Glass**: The fundamentals lack positive factors, and the price has rebounded due to environmental - protection restrictions. The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the inventory has decreased for the first time in two months. In the long term, the demand is difficult to recover significantly due to the adjustment of the real - estate industry [2]. Financial Futures - **Stock index futures/options**: The performance of different stock indexes varies. The market is affected by economic data such as CPI and PPI, and it is recommended to hold long positions [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The market interest rate is consolidating, and the Treasury - bond price has a narrow - range rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions with a light position [4]. Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and it is affected by central - bank gold purchases, inflation, and trade policies. The short - term price is affected by factors such as the US non - farm data and tariff policies. Attention should be paid to economic data and trade negotiations [4]. Forestry Products - **Pulp**: The cost support for pulp prices has weakened, and the demand has entered the off - season. It is expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Logs**: The demand is relatively stable, and the supply is expected to decrease. The price is expected to be volatile [6]. Agricultural Products - **Edible oils**: The Southeast Asian palm - oil production is in an increasing cycle, and the domestic edible - oil market is affected by factors such as production increase and seasonal consumption. It is expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Meal products**: The meal - product market is expected to rebound, affected by weather conditions and supply - demand relationships. Attention should be paid to weather and supply - arrival situations [6]. - **Live pigs**: The live - pig market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain weakly volatile with limited downward space [8]. - **Rubber**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has decreased. The price lacks strong upward momentum [8]. Chemical Products - **PX**: The supply has increased, and the demand is affected by polyester production reduction. The price follows the trend of oil prices, and the PXN spread still has support [8][10]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand relationship has weakened, and the spot price follows the cost - end to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester devices [10]. - **MEG**: The short - to - medium - term supply - demand structure is good, and the price is supported. Attention should be paid to the change in polyester load [10]. - **PR**: The raw - material support is weak, and the market is adjusted weakly and steadily [10]. - **PF**: The market is expected to be sorted warmly under the game of multiple factors [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot market price range is set, and the price increase reaction is weak. Without more positive factors, the market is prone to decline and difficult to rise. Attention should be paid to the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the easing of tariff policies, and the final ruling result [3]. - The US has extended the tariff exemption on China, and the dialogue between the top leaders of China and the US has brought some impetus to the bulls. However, due to the slight decline in spot freight rates, the situation of price increase implementation is unclear, and the market fluctuates greatly with the game between long and short positions [3]. 3. Key Points by Category Freight Rate Index - On June 2, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1252.82 points, up 0.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1718.11 points, down 0.1% from the previous period [2]. - On June 6, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1669.44 points, down 0.41% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1123.64 points, up 5.25% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 3259.14 points, down 9.10% from the previous period [2]. - On June 6, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 2240.35 points, up 167.64 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1667 USD/TEU, up 5.04% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 5606 USD/FEU, up 8.39% from the previous period [2]. - On June 6, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1154.98 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1397.02 points, up 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 1034.94 points, up 9.6% from the previous period [2]. PMI Data - Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous 49); services PMI was 48.9 (expected 50.3, previous 50.1); composite PMI was 49.5 (expected 50.7, previous 50.4). The Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 (expected - 11.5, previous - 19.5) [2]. - China's May Caixin manufacturing PMI was 48.3, down 2.1 points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [2]. - US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3 (expected 49.9, previous 50.2), services PMI was 52.3 (expected 51, previous 50.8), and composite PMI was 52.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.6) [2]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For the 2506 contract, focus on the logic of basis convergence. For the 2508 contract, when it rebounds to above 2250, it is recommended to try short positions with a light position and set stop - losses [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a situation where the near - term freight rate is stronger than the long - term one. Attention should be paid to the court's ruling result, and currently, the positive arbitrage structure is mainly considered [3]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [3]. Market Conditions - On June 6, the main contract 2508 closed at 2146.3, down 0.11%, with a trading volume of 73,400 lots and an open interest of 47,300 lots, a decrease of 707 lots from the previous day [3]. - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 was adjusted to 16%, the margin was adjusted to 26%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 was 100 lots [3]. Other Information - Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu said on the 5th that Israel is "using" local organizations in the Gaza Strip to fight against Hamas [4]. - As of the end of May, China has newly opened more than 100 international air cargo routes this year, with 26 new routes opened in May. The new routes are mainly in Asia and Europe, and the cargo mainly includes cross - border e - commerce goods, electronic products, etc. [4]

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 6 月 9 日星期一 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-9） | | | | | 铁矿：本期全球铁矿石发运总量环比回升，主流矿山发运量保持平稳回升 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 万吨至 | | | | 态势，需求端铁水产量环比回落 0.1 241.8 万吨，连续四周下行， | | | | | | 基本面供需逐步宽松。铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，说明当前 240 的高铁水 | | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹抛空 | 仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水持续回落状况。特朗普再次提高钢铁 | | | | | | 关税至 50%，资金和情绪端表现出偏空，关注市场对关税的消化反应以及 | | | | | | 减产的推进程度，短期受煤焦带动呈现反弹走势，策略上，前期空单建议 | | | | | | 继续持有，情绪性反弹可酌情加仓。 | | | | | | 煤焦：部分煤矿因完成月度生产任务而停产或减产，但炼焦煤整体高供应 | | | | | | 弱需求格局难以缓解。焦煤产量高位，下游补库动力不足，52 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report analyzes the container shipping market, highlighting factors such as CMA's price cut, fluctuations in freight rate indices, the impact of the US court ruling on the Trump administration, and the need to monitor multiple factors including spot freight rates, tariff policies, and the final ruling result. It also provides short - term, arbitrage, and long - term trading strategies [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Freight Rate Indices - On June 2, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1252.82 points, up 0.5% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1718.11 points, down 0.1% [3]. - On May 30, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1676.25 points, up 51.55% from the previous period; the European route was 1067.59 points, up 36.25%; the US West route was 3585.23 points, up 89.23% [3]. - On May 30, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 2072.71 points, up 486.59 points from the previous period; the European line price was 1587 USD/TEU, up 20.50%; the US West route was 3275 USD/FEU, up 57.92% [3]. - On May 30, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1117.61 points, up 0.9% from the previous period; the European route was 1375.62 points, down 1.2%; the US West route was 944.06 points, up 4.0% [3]. Market Analysis - CMA cut the online freight rates for the second half of June, leading to intense long - short competition and significant market fluctuations. Risk - preferring investors can consider lightly shorting at high prices [2]. - The US court's ruling on the Trump administration may boost the macro - sentiment, but the spot market remains weak. There may be a rush - shipping situation due to the potential easing of the Sino - US trade war in 90 days. Attention should be paid to the final result of the court ruling, the 90 - day spot freight rate range, and the terminal demand feedback under the tariff policy easing [4]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For the 2506 contract, focus on the basis - narrowing logic. For the 2508 contract, when it rebounds above 2250, it is recommended to lightly short with a stop - loss set [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate pattern. Currently, focus on the court ruling result and mainly adopt a positive - spread structure [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high level, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent trend [4]. Contract Information - On June 5, the main contract 2508 closed at 2146.3, down 0.11%, with a trading volume of 73,400 lots and an open interest of 47,300 lots, a decrease of 707 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 was adjusted to 16% [4]. - The margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 was adjusted to 26% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4]. Other Information - The eurozone's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4, service PMI was 48.9, and composite PMI was 49.5. The May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 [3]. - The May Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 48.3, down 2.1 points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [3]. - The US May Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.3, service PMI was 52.3, and composite PMI was 52.1 [3]. - China has added over 100 international air freight routes as of the end of May this year, with 26 new routes in May. The new routes are mainly in Asia and Europe, and the main cargo types include cross - border e - commerce goods, electronics, etc. [5].

Group 1: Iron Ore - The total global iron ore shipments increased this period, with mainstream mines' shipments steadily rising. Iron - making molten iron production decreased by 0.1 million tons to 2.418 million tons, dropping for four consecutive weeks, and the supply - demand situation is gradually loosening. Port inventories are still decreasing, and it's necessary to monitor the continuous decline of molten iron production. Trump raised steel tariffs to 50%, making the capital and sentiment bearish. The market's reaction to tariffs and the progress of production cuts should be watched. In the short term, it shows a rebound driven by coal and coke. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and add positions during emotional rebounds [2]. Group 2: Coal and Coke - There are rumors that Mongolia will impose a 20% resource tax on coal exports, and some coal mines in China's Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions have stopped or reduced production due to completing monthly production tasks, causing the coal - coke futures to rise significantly. However, coking coal production is at a high level, downstream replenishment motivation is weak, and the raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines has reached a record high. With the decline of molten iron production and the continuous increase of coking coal supply, the fundamentals are hard to improve. For coke, as coking coal prices fall, coking enterprises' costs decrease, and most are in a profitable state. Steel mills have initiated the third round of price cuts for coking enterprises, which will shrink their profits. With the arrival of the high - temperature and plum - rain season, downstream demand weakens, steel mills control production more, and coking enterprises' inventory pressure increases. The overall inventory of coke has increased month - on - month, and the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. Coal and coke generally follow the trend of finished products [2]. Group 3: Rebar - Trump raised steel tariffs to 50%, weakening the sentiment in the black market. Steel mills' profits are still good, and blast furnaces under maintenance are resuming production, so supply remains high. Construction demand is affected by capital and the plum - rain season, and terminal demand is poor. External demand for exports has been over - consumed in advance, and domestic demand in the manufacturing industries such as automobiles and home appliances has declined seasonally. Real estate investment has declined across the board, and overall demand is unlikely to show an off - season increase. With no increase in annual total demand, a pattern of high - early and low - late will form. The total steel inventory is continuously decreasing, but the decline has slowed down. In June, there will be dual pressures of high production and weak off - season demand, coupled with the negative macro sentiment caused by increased steel tariffs. Overall, rebar prices are more likely to fall than rise [2]. Group 4: Glass - There is no substantial positive news for the glass fundamentals, but the futures market has rebounded due to environmental production restrictions. The operating rate of the float glass industry is 76.01%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68%. The average capacity utilization rate is 78.62%, an increase of 0.42 percentage points compared to the 22nd, and daily production has increased by 0.51% to 157,500 tons, reaching a five - week high. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises has decreased by 0.46% month - on - month to 67.769 million heavy cases, falling from a two - month high for the first time. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment period, the housing completion area has decreased by 28.2% year - on - year, and glass demand is difficult to increase significantly. As it transitions from the peak season to the off - season, there is a lack of upward momentum in the fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand [2]. Group 5: Financial Futures and Bonds - In the previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.23%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.05%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.54%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.72%. Funds flowed into the Internet and communication equipment sectors, and out of the daily chemical and soft drink sectors. After the Geneva talks, China has implemented the agreement seriously, and the US should cancel negative measures against China. The two sides should strengthen exchanges in various fields. China's Caixin Services PMI in May was 51.1, up 0.4 percentage points from April, indicating an accelerated expansion of the service industry. New service orders increased in May, the employment index reached a six - month high, and market confidence improved slightly, but enterprises' profitability is under pressure. The manufacturing PMI and export data reflect China's economic resilience, and market risk - aversion sentiment has eased. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures. For bonds, the yield of the 10 - year Chinese government bond remained flat, FR007 decreased by 1bp, and SHIBOR3M remained unchanged. The central bank conducted 126.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 5, with an operating rate of 1.40%. A total of 266 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 139.5 billion yuan. Market interest rates are consolidating, and government bonds are rebounding slightly. It is recommended to hold long positions in government bonds lightly [2][4]. Group 6: Precious Metals - In the context of a high - interest - rate environment and global restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. China's physical gold demand has increased significantly, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for six consecutive months since November last year. The logic driving the current gold price increase has not completely reversed. The Fed's interest - rate policy and tariff policy may be short - term disturbing factors. It is expected that this year's interest - rate policy will be more cautious, and changes in tariff policy and geopolitical conflicts will dominate market risk - aversion sentiment. According to the latest US data, the labor market is relatively strong, inflation data has slowed down, but inflation may rise again under the influence of tariffs. In the short term, trade tensions have eased, risk - aversion demand has weakened, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the non - farm payroll data. Gold is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Silver is expected to fluctuate strongly [4][6]. Group 7: Pulp and Logs - The spot market price of pulp was stable in the previous trading day. The latest FOB price of softwood pulp decreased by $30 to $740 per ton, and the latest FOB price of hardwood pulp was not quoted. The decline in cost prices weakens the support for pulp prices. The profitability of the paper - making industry is at a low level, paper mills' inventories are accumulating, and their acceptance of high - price pulp is low. Demand has entered the off - season, which is negative for pulp prices. Pulp prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The average daily shipment volume of logs at ports last week was 62,800 cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 700 cubic meters. The downstream has entered the off - season, but the easing of exports may make up for part of the off - season gap. It is expected that the average daily shipment volume will remain at around 60,000 cubic meters. The volume of logs shipped from New Zealand to China in March was 1.659 million cubic meters, a 32% increase from the previous month. New Zealand has started to reduce production, and log shipments are decreasing. It is expected that the volume of logs arriving in China will start to decrease. The expected arrival volume this week is 339,000 cubic meters, a 21% month - on - month decrease. As of last week, the log inventory at ports was 3.41 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 cubic meters. The spot market price is stable. In the short term, the spot market price is stable, demand has improved month - on - month, the arrival volume has increased month - on - month but is lower than the average level, and supply pressure has eased. The fundamentals of logs have improved, and log prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. Group 8: Oils and Fats - Southeast Asian palm oil is in a seasonal production - increasing cycle. Although the export demand for Malaysian palm oil is strong, due to increased production, Malaysian palm oil inventories are expected to rise for the third consecutive month, possibly reaching the highest level since September last year. Recently, the cost - effectiveness of palm oil has recovered, and India's reduction of import tariffs will increase import demand, providing support for palm oil prices. The B40 policy in Indonesia is undecided, and attention should be paid to changes in Malaysian palm oil production and inventories. China's rapeseed oil inventory is at a multi - year high, and the easing of China - Canada relations is releasing the original supply pressure in the rapeseed oil market. South American soybeans have achieved a record harvest. Domestic soybean oil inventory is increasing rapidly due to a large amount of South American soybeans arriving in China and high - pressure oil - pressing by oil mills. Although domestic palm oil inventory is low, it is suppressed by the production - increasing cycle of palm oil in the producing areas. Currently, oils and fats are in the traditional off - season for consumption. Oils and fats are expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean - producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6][8]. Group 9: Meal and Grains - The phone call between Chinese and US leaders has boosted the overall grain market. The drought in the US Midwest is gradually easing, but some weather forecasts indicate that warm and dry weather may occur in mid - June, which may threaten newly - sown soybeans. The inventory of new - crop US soybeans may become even tighter, leaving less room for error for US soybeans, whose sown area is already expected to decline. Brazilian soybeans are having a bumper harvest and accelerating exports, and the yield per unit of Argentine soybeans is expected to exceed expectations, but the harvesting work is delayed. In June, the volume of soybeans arriving in China will surge by about 11 million tons, and customs clearance has accelerated recently. The soybean supply situation has become looser, the operating rate of oil mills has generally recovered to over 50%, and the inventory of soybean meal is increasing. Demand is rigid. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the weather in North America, Brazilian logistics delays, and the arrival of soybeans [8]. Group 10: Livestock - The price of live pigs has shown a volatile pattern of first falling, then rising, and then falling again, with the weekly average price showing a slight decline. Last week, the average trading price of ternary live pigs was 14.46 yuan per kilogram, a 0.21% decrease, and the price fluctuated between 14.28 - 14.54 yuan per kilogram. On the supply side, the average trading weight of live pigs across the country has decreased slightly, reflecting an adjustment in the market's slaughter rhythm. On the demand side, the operating rate of key slaughtering enterprises has increased, indicating a short - term recovery in slaughter demand. In terms of breeding profits, the average profit per head in the self - breeding and self - raising model across the country is 179.50 yuan, a slight decrease of 3.09 yuan per head from the previous period; the theoretical profit per head from raising piglets to slaughter has shown an upward trend, with an average of 164.95 yuan per head, a month - on - month increase of 1.86 yuan per head. It is expected that the price of the national live - pig market may rise first and then fall next week. The slaughter volume of breeders may shrink seasonally at the end of the month, which will support the market price. However, as June arrives, the slaughter volume of live pigs is expected to gradually recover, and market supply pressure may reappear. Currently, the price difference between standard pigs and fat pigs is continuously narrowing, which significantly reduces breeders' enthusiasm for holding back pigs for weight gain, thereby accelerating the slaughter of second - fattened pigs. Looking forward to the June market, considering the gradually emerging seasonal supply pressure, the spot market generally expects pig prices to still have room to fall, which will continue to suppress the futures market, causing live - pig futures prices to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [8]. Group 11: Rubber - Affected by continuous rainfall, rubber - tapping operations in domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas have been hindered, and the tight supply of raw materials has pushed up procurement prices. In April 2025, China's natural rubber imports reached 523,200 tons, a 11.93% month - on - month decrease but a 41.64% year - on - year increase. From January to April this year, the cumulative import volume was 2.2089 million tons, a 24.25% increase from the same period last year, indicating that medium - and long - term supply is still relatively abundant. Currently, the market shows a pattern of short - term supply tightness and medium - and long - term supply looseness. The operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.74%, a month - on - month increase of 2.53 percentage points but 6.35 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating rate of all - steel tires is 62.09%, a month - on - month increase of 2.21 percentage points and a 4.11 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease. Most enterprises maintain stable production, some increase production slightly due to foreign trade orders, but inventory pressure continues to restrict production capacity release, and some enterprises actively reduce production to control inventory. Terminal demand improvement is limited, enterprises' sales are weak, finished - product inventories are accumulating, and the inventory - reduction progress is slow. Considering inventory pressure and end - of - month maintenance plans, it is expected that the industry's operating rate may decline slightly. China's natural rubber social inventory is 1.342 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,000 tons, a 0.96% decrease. China's total social inventory of dark - colored rubber is 818,000 tons, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease. The inventory in Qingdao has decreased by 0.7%. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decline slightly in the next period. According to market supply - demand analysis, the general trade inventory in Qingdao may decrease by about 5,000 tons. It is expected that the natural rubber market may remain range - bound in June. Continuous rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas still restricts short - term rubber - tapping progress, but the market's expectation of supply recovery after the rainy season is increasing. Although tire operating rates are gradually recovering, terminal consumption has not shown substantial improvement. Without a clear one - way driving force, rubber prices will continue to be dominated by macro sentiment and policy orientation. Attention should be paid to the impact of policies such as state - reserve purchases on the market [10]. Group 12: PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF - Geopolitical tensions have eased locally, and oil prices may fluctuate within a narrow range. Recently, many domestic and foreign PX plants have restarted or increased their loads, increasing supply. At the same time, the strong sentiment of polyester production cuts has affected PX demand expectations. However, the supply - demand situation in the near - term is still tight, and the PXN spread still has support. PX prices are expected to fluctuate weakly following oil prices. For PTA, its supply - demand situation is okay. After continuous inventory reduction, the liquidity of the current spot market is tight, and the spot basis is strong. However, downstream polyester factories are reducing production, and the spot price will fluctuate within a range following the cost side, with the spot basis remaining strong. Attention should be paid to changes in polyester plants. For MEG, the arrival volume has been low recently, port shipping efficiency is good, and port inventories decreased significantly last week. In June, the available spot for circulation is still tight, and the spot basis will remain strong. The medium - and short - term supply - demand structure of MEG is good, which supports MEG prices. Attention should be paid to changes in polyester loads. For PR, macro - positive factors are boosting the commodity market, raw materials have strong support, and the industry's processing fee is low. Local supply is tight, and polyester bottle - chip prices are expected to rise, but the increase will be limited considering downstream follow - up. For PF, international oil prices have risen, but downstream orders are insufficient, and polyester plants are under great pressure to reduce production. It is expected that the polyester staple - fiber market will fluctuate and consolidate today [10].

2025年6月4日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 欧元区5月制造业PMN初值49.4，预期49.3，前值49; 欧元区5月服务业PMW初值48.9，预期50.3，前值50.1。欧元区5月综合PMWI值49.5. 预期50.7. 前值50.4。欧元区5月Sentix投资者信心指数 -8.1，预期 -11.5，前值 -19.5。 5月财新中国制造业采购经理指数 (PMI) 录得48.3, 较4月下降2.1个百分点，2024年10月来首次跌至临界点以下。 美国5月Markit制造业PMW值52.3，创三个月新高，预期49.9，前值50.2; 服务业PMM初值52.3，创下两个月新高，预期51, 前值50.8; 综合PMI初值 52.1,预期50.3, 前值50.6。 中心 美法院裁定特政府越权，宏观情绪上或有提振，但现货市场挺价上仍 较为疲软,中美贸易战的缓和势必在90天会产生抢运的情况,需要 关注本次法院裁定后的最终结果。综上述,我们认为,一需要关注 90天现货运价区间，二是关税政策缓和下终端需求的反馈，三是裁 定的最终结果。 6月3日主力合约2508收盘2100.2，涨幅为0.76%，成交量8.64万 手,持仓量 ...