近期，投资者对AI泡沫的担心持续上升。就此，在11月26日举办的中国银河证券2026年度投资策略报 告会上，中国银河证券首席经济学家、研究院院长章俊表示，AI泡沫确实存在，但会否演变成危机， 目前来看还为时尚早。章俊提到，IMF将当下与互联网泡沫进行了对比，从市盈率和投资热度等指标来 看，目前整体依然相对可控。美联储加息是刺破互联网泡沫的重要原因，但当下是美联储和全球降息周 期，政策风险可控。不过与此同时，他强调，目前全球经济的韧性远低于当年，因此指标的可比性也还 是存在不确定性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction industry in China is seeking structural growth opportunities amid traditional demand pressures, driven by national strategic infrastructure projects and emerging trends in urban renewal [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, 152 listed companies in the construction sector reported a total revenue of 5.84 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.14%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 123.62 billion yuan, down 9.76% [2]. - The urban development is shifting towards improving existing stock, with urban renewal actions expected to create a market worth trillions, particularly in underground pipeline investments exceeding 5 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan [3]. Group 2: Major Projects and Trends - Significant projects such as the Yaxi Hydropower and the Sichuan-Tibet Railway are highlighted, with the Yaxi Hydropower project alone having an investment of 1.2 trillion yuan and the Sichuan-Tibet Railway segment costing approximately 319.8 billion yuan [4]. - The regulatory environment is becoming more favorable for mergers and acquisitions, which will benefit construction companies [4]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investment focus areas include major projects like Yaxi Hydropower and Sichuan-Tibet Railway, with recommended companies such as China Power Construction and China Railway Construction [6]. - Urban renewal, high dividend stocks, and overseas expansion are also key investment themes, with companies like China State Construction and Shanghai Construction recommended [6]. - Growth sectors include low-altitude economy, welding robots, and computing infrastructure, with suggested companies like China Communications Construction and Shanghai Institute of Building Science [6]. - The coal chemical industry in Xinjiang and nuclear power projects are highlighted as areas of improvement, with recommendations for companies like China Chemical and China Nuclear Engineering [6].

Core Viewpoint - The electronic industry is undergoing a critical transition driven by AI, shifting from computing infrastructure to application implementation by 2026, with overall valuations being high and investment logic needing to shift from valuation expansion to profit realization [1][2] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its rapid growth into 2026, with key trends including the push for domestic computing power and a significant cycle in storage [3] - The demand for AI and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is expected to drive a new growth cycle in semiconductor manufacturing, with a focus on domestic semiconductor equipment and materials [3] Consumer Electronics - The consumer electronics sector is anticipated to see accelerated development in AI applications, particularly in mobile devices and smart imaging equipment, leading to significant revenue growth [4] - Investment opportunities are emerging from the rapid penetration of AI in small-end devices and upgrades in large-end devices, including foldable screens and enhanced imaging functions [4] Components and Devices - The demand for printed circuit boards (PCBs) is expected to remain high due to AI, with leading manufacturers expanding production to meet growing downstream needs [5] - The storage industry's upward cycle is driving demand for packaging substrates, while passive components like chip inductors and tantalum capacitors are also areas of focus [5] - The optical components market is benefiting from the upgrade of smart phone optics and the proliferation of new consumer electronic products [5]

Core Insights - The electronic industry is undergoing a critical transition driven by AI, shifting from computing infrastructure to application implementation by 2026 [1] - Overall industry valuation is considered high, necessitating a shift in investment logic from valuation expansion to profit realization [1] - Key opportunities are identified in three main areas: semiconductors, consumer electronics, and components [1] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry is experiencing rapid growth, with expectations for continued trends into 2026 [2] - Key focus areas include the trend of domestic computing power localization, the impact of AI on consumer electronics, and the significant demand for storage chips driven by computing needs [2] - The semiconductor manufacturing sector is entering a new growth cycle due to AI and high bandwidth memory (HBM) demand [2] Consumer Electronics - Major consumer electronics brands are embracing AI, with expectations for accelerated development in AI edge applications by 2026 [3] - Opportunities for valuation enhancement are seen in smartphone manufacturers as AI traffic entry points and in the rapid growth of smart imaging devices [3] - Investment opportunities are also identified in components related to AI glasses, AI headphones, and the upgrade of large-end devices [3] Components and Devices - The demand for printed circuit boards (PCBs) is expected to remain high due to AI, with leading manufacturers actively expanding production [4] - The global CSP manufacturers are increasing investments in AI, driving high demand for multi-layer PCBs and HDI products [4] - Opportunities in passive components focus on chip inductors and tantalum capacitors, while optical components are driven by the upgrade of smart phone optics and the proliferation of new consumer electronics [4]

Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy Securities emphasizes the importance of selecting leading AI application companies under the AI-First paradigm, focusing on five key areas: edge AI, AI creative and content generation tools, enterprise-level AI agents, vertical industry expert AI agents, and AI-native social and companionship applications. The report highlights the expanding supply-demand gap in domestic computing power and continues to recommend leading domestic AI computing power companies [1]. Industry Overview - The computer industry in 2025 shows a trend of "initial rise followed by decline and oscillation," with the industry index up 19.57% year-to-date as of November 18, outperforming the CSI 300 index. The first three quarters of 2025 saw a slight revenue recovery with a 9.13% year-on-year revenue growth and a 38.25% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders. However, the gross margin decreased by 1.19%, while the net margin increased by 0.50%. The accounts receivable turnover rate grew by 8.17%. The current valuation of the computer industry index is above the historical ten-year average, with a PE (TTM) of 87.97 times and a PS (TTM) of 3.62 times [1]. 2026 Industry Outlook - The trend of model parity is accelerating, with the penetration rate of domestic computing power continuing to rise. Domestic large models are increasingly adopting open-source routes, with 9 out of the top 20 large models being domestic, reflecting a nearly 50% share. The average API price for domestic models is 3.88 yuan per million tokens, significantly lower than the 20.46 yuan per million tokens for overseas models. The demand for domestic AI chips is expected to grow rapidly due to strong demand for inference computing power and U.S. restrictions on high-end chips, further widening the supply-demand gap [2]. AI Agent Development - The AI Agent sector is expected to see a structural acceleration in implementation by 2026. Current challenges include a mismatch between technological maturity and commercialization pace, with 90% of AI Agents achieving over 70% accuracy but only 66% meeting autonomy standards. The high cost of enterprise-level agents compared to general large models limits large-scale deployment. However, structural opportunities are emerging, with enterprise-level agents transitioning from "L2 popularization" to "L3 integration," and the implementation rate in financial risk control and customer service quality inspection exceeding 40% [3]. AI-First Paradigm - The shift towards AI-First applications is driven by the need to internalize AI capabilities into product architectures rather than treating them as additional features. This approach will determine the survival of AI application companies in the next competitive round. A three-dimensional verification system is proposed to identify AI-First companies, focusing on qualitative aspects (data loop capabilities, AI R&D investment over 15%, AI technical background of core teams), quantitative health of AI business (over 50% revenue growth, gross margin above 40%, customer repurchase rate over 80%), and barriers to entry (exclusive scenario data, patent reserves, deep industry know-how) [4].

Group 1: Oil and Chemical Industry Outlook - China Galaxy Securities forecasts Brent crude oil prices to range between $60-70 per barrel by 2026, with costs expected to stabilize [1] - The chemical industry is experiencing negative capital expenditure growth since 2024, with supply expected to contract due to the "anti-involution" trend and accelerated elimination of outdated overseas capacity [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" draft emphasizes expanding domestic demand, combined with the onset of the US interest rate cut cycle, which is expected to open up demand for chemical products [1] - A dual bottom in supply and demand is anticipated, with strong policy expectations catalyzing a potential cyclical upturn in the chemical industry by 2026, leading to a "Davis Double Play" from valuation recovery to earnings growth [1] Group 2: Specific Chemical Sector Recommendations - PTA industry is operating at low levels, with increasing calls for anti-involution; recommended companies include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Xinfon Ming, and Tongkun [1] - Polyester filament capacity is becoming concentrated, with industry self-discipline enhancing cyclical elasticity; recommended companies include Xinfon Ming, Tongkun, and Hengyi Petrochemical [1] - The spandex industry is expected to see increased concentration; recommended companies include Huafeng Chemical and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber [1] - Global demand for pesticides is improving, with bottom-priced varieties likely to rebound; recommended companies include Yangnong Chemical, Runfeng Shares, Jiangshan Shares, Guangxin Shares, and Lier Chemical [1] - Organic silicon capacity expansion is nearing completion, with supply-demand dynamics expected to improve; recommended companies include Hesheng Silicon Industry, Xin'an Shares, and Dongyue Silicon Material [1] - The titanium dioxide industry is facing challenges and opportunities; recommended company is Longbai Group [1] - Refining capacity is being optimized, with a shift from oil to chemicals enhancing effective supply; recommended companies include Sinopec, PetroChina, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Hengli Petrochemical [1] Group 3: Demand-Supported Chemical Sectors - Strong pricing power from suppliers is expected to sustain high demand for potash fertilizers; recommended companies include Yara International and Dongfang Iron Tower [2] - Phosphate supply and demand remain tight, benefiting resource-based companies; recommended companies include Batian Shares, Yuntianhua, Xingfa Group, and Chuanheng Shares [2] - Strict quota policies are expected to sustain high demand for refrigerants; recommended companies include Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. [2] - Amino acids are expected to maintain their upward trend, with overseas capacity gradually exiting; recommended companies include New Hope Liuhe, Andisu, and Meihua Biological Technology [2] - The chlorinated sugar market is anticipated to see anti-involution, with significant potential for allulose; recommended companies include Jinhui Industrial, Bailong Chuangyuan, and Baolingbao Biology [2] - Vitamins are leading the current round of chemical price increases, entering the second phase; recommended companies include New Hope Liuhe and Zhejiang Medicine [2] - The EU's preliminary anti-dumping ruling is expected to reassess the value of overseas tires; recommended companies include Sailun Tire and Senqilin [2] - The civil explosives industry is developing steadily, with policy guidance likely accelerating industry consolidation; recommended companies include Guangdong Hongda, Yipuli, and Jiangnan Chemical [2] Group 4: New Materials and Technologies - Lightweight humanoid robots may benefit from PEEK as a key solution; recommended companies include Zhongyan Shares, Water Shares, and Guoen Shares [3] - AI is driving global demand for computing power, with electronic-grade PPO expected to grow; recommended companies include Shengquan Group and Dongcai Technology [3] - The domestic substitution of core chip materials, particularly photoresists, is accelerating; recommended companies include Wanrun Shares and Dinglong Shares [3]

Core Viewpoint - The media and internet industry growth is driven by performance and AI empowerment, with a focus on increasing AI investments and the production of quality content [1] Group 1: 2025 Media Market Review - The media sector experienced significant index growth driven by elastic sectors, with a year-to-date increase of 26.0% compared to the 17.6% increase of the CSI 300 index as of November 14, 2025 [2] - The gaming sector saw a remarkable year-to-date increase of 57.2%, fueled by new product cycles [2] Group 2: Hong Kong Internet Sector - Major internet companies in Hong Kong have shown steady growth since 2025, with increased investments in AI reflecting strategic priorities in AI infrastructure, model development, and scenario implementation [3] - The combination of technological accumulation, data resources, and user ecosystems is expected to create a positive development loop in technology and scenario expansion [3] Group 3: Gaming & Film Industry - The production of high-quality content is essential for the gaming and film sectors, with a notable increase in quality works since 2025, leading to long-term value growth for related companies [4] - Domestic games and films have achieved significant success in overseas markets, with AI technology applications continuously explored within the industry [4] - Recommended companies include Tencent, Alibaba, Bilibili, Kuaishou, and others involved in AI applications and content production [4]

Core Insights - The article indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates until 2026, with relatively stable China-U.S. relations, although geopolitical risks remain [1] - China's macroeconomic policies are anticipated to maintain continuity, with strong economic growth resilience driven by domestic demand expansion and anti-involution policies, leading to a rebound in inflation [1] - The A-share market is expected to improve in liquidity, with reasonable valuations and potential profit growth, particularly in emerging industries and China's economic transformation [1] Economic Outlook - The domestic economy may be in a recovery phase, with ongoing narratives around artificial intelligence supporting market optimism [1] - The market is expected to have support for continued positive performance, suggesting a focus on broad-based indices [1] Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to prioritize investments in representative broad-based indices, specifically the CSI A500 ETF (159338) and the SSE Composite Index ETF (510760), which may better withstand higher market volatility in the near term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry is expected to see structural opportunities by 2026, driven by policies and market conditions, with three main growth engines: new energy, electronics, and computing power [1] Summary by Sections 2025 Review - The construction materials index and fundamentals showed signs of recovery, with the SW construction materials index increasing by 21.37% from the beginning of the year to November 12, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.30 percentage points [2] - Sub-industry performance was mixed, with the fiberglass manufacturing sector leading gains due to the AI computing power boom [2] - Despite a slight revenue decline of 5.74% year-on-year, the industry saw a significant profit improvement, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 21.46% [2] 2026 Outlook - Structural investment opportunities in the construction materials industry are expected to emerge due to intensified policy regulation and sustained high demand in emerging sectors [3] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to reshape the competitive landscape in traditional materials like cement and glass, improving supply-demand dynamics and gradually restoring industry profitability [3] - The growth of new energy, electronics, and computing sectors will benefit leading companies with technological barriers and production capabilities, particularly in high-performance fiberglass [3] - The demand for renovation and urban renewal in the real estate sector will favor consumer building material leaders with strong channel layouts, brands, and product quality [3] Sub-industry Outlook - **Cement**: Supply regulation effects are expected to improve profitability, with major projects supporting future demand and leading companies expanding into overseas markets [4] - **Fiberglass**: Continued high demand from the wind power and electric vehicle sectors is expected to support sales, with AI computing needs driving fiberglass demand [4] - **Consumer Building Materials**: Urban renewal is likely to boost demand for renovation and repair, while consumption upgrades will increase the demand for high-quality green materials [4] - **Glass**: Prices remain under pressure, but the "anti-involution" policy may help ease supply-demand imbalances [4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on three investment themes: 1. Traditional building materials benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, with recommended companies including Huaxin Cement, Shangfeng Cement, and Conch Cement [4] 2. Emerging sectors with sustained high demand, recommending companies like China Jushi and China National Building Material [4] 3. Consumer building material leaders with strong retail channel layouts, recommending companies such as Oriental Yuhong, Beixin Building Materials, Weixing New Materials, Sankeshu, and Tubao [4]

智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，关注科技创新引领导向带来的超预期，四大子板块投资 方向。该行认为新兴产业以及未来AI赋能产业的发展将会是"十五五"期间的重要议题，细化至通信行业 主要体现于算力AI产业链边际改善，卫星互联网 量子科技方兴未艾，表现在运营商、光通信、卫星互 联网及量子科技等方面。 投资建议 （1）运营商：低估值高股息，运营商盈利能力、现金流资产不断改善，资产价值优势凸显，持续增加 分红回馈股东，"十五五"期间内第二增长曲线明晰； （2）光通信：云厂商AI资本开支增长，带动PCB、GPU、光通信及铜缆等相关产业链的蓬勃发展，预 计"十五五"期间国产替代及产业升级将持续深化； （3）卫星互联网：随着商业火箭发展逐步成熟，以及政府资本开支的增加、单星价值量的逐步降低， 2026年开始商业航天卫星互联网发展大周期或将展开； （4）量子科技：伴随我国空天一体化通信的建设，量子信息行业呈现高成长性，量子科技市场规模有 望持续攀升，"十五五"期间应用场景将进一步拓展。 风险提示：国际形势不确定性的风险；算力行业竞争加剧的风险；卫星产业链发展进度不及预期的风 险：量子科技及应用发展不及预期的风险。 ...