Group 1 - The current rise in Hong Kong stocks is supported by fundamentals, with signs of structural recovery in profitability starting from the second half of 2024 due to stabilization in both domestic and external demand and macroeconomic policy support [1][24] - The Hang Seng Index is transitioning from traditional economic cycles to focus on hard technology sectors such as AI applications, new energy, and semiconductors, with the weight of new economy sectors in the index increasing from 17% to nearly 50% [1][34] - The performance of Hong Kong stocks is expected to shift from being liquidity-driven to being driven by both profitability and liquidity, with earnings growth projected to rebound to 10.8% in 2026 [1][25] Group 2 - The current low valuation levels of quality companies in Hong Kong stocks highlight their growth potential, and the market sentiment has likely adjusted to current liquidity and emotional factors [6][24] - The structural recovery in profitability is evident, with emerging industries experiencing rapid growth while traditional sectors are still stabilizing [28][29] - The performance of individual stocks correlates positively with earnings growth, with high-growth companies significantly outperforming those under profit pressure [33] Group 3 - The upcoming liquidity improvements, including potential dovish signals from the new Federal Reserve chair and a decrease in HIBOR rates, could provide upward momentum for Hong Kong stocks [52][70] - The AH premium is expected to decline further due to increased investment from insurance funds in H-shares and the growing convenience for foreign capital to allocate resources in Hong Kong [71][74] - The spring market rally in Hong Kong stocks has historically shown a high probability of positive returns, indicating a potential opportunity for investors [56][60]

Core Viewpoint - The secondary market prices for Labubu blind boxes from Pop Mart have experienced a significant decline, with some prices dropping over 80% within six months, indicating a fundamental shift in supply and demand dynamics [1][4][9] Price Decline of Labubu Blind Boxes - The average transaction price for the Labubu "Heart Password" series has fallen from approximately 1800 yuan at launch to about 1022 yuan, a decline of over 40% [1][14] - The price of the "Self" hidden version from the "Front High Energy" series peaked at nearly 3000 yuan in June 2025 but has since plummeted to around 530 yuan, representing a drop of over 80% [4][17] - The number of Labubu listings on platforms like Xianyu and Chidao has increased, with many popular items seeing continuous price reductions [6][19] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Pop Mart has significantly increased its production capacity, with monthly output now exceeding ten times that of the same period last year, reaching around 30 million units [8][21] - The company has implemented a large-scale replenishment strategy following the global pre-sale of the Labubu 3.0 series, which has led to a substantial increase in market supply [21][22] Market Sentiment and Speculation - The retreat of speculative sentiment has contributed to the decline in secondary market prices, with reports of second-hand dealers halting purchases of Labubu products [9][22] - Industry experts suggest that Pop Mart may face challenges related to IP aging, as market fatigue and increased competition have led to a decrease in the popularity of Labubu [22] Financial Performance and Growth Prospects - Despite the market downturn, Pop Mart's overall revenue for Q3 2025 has increased by 245% to 250%, with significant growth in both domestic (185% to 190%) and overseas (365% to 370%) markets [10][23] - The company is actively expanding its overseas supply chain, with new partnerships in Indonesia, Cambodia, and Mexico, which may support revenue diversification and cost optimization [11][24] - Analysts predict that Pop Mart is transitioning from explosive growth to a phase of sustainable growth, with future revenue drivers expected to shift from single blockbuster products to a more diversified portfolio [12][25]

Core Insights - The toy market is experiencing significant growth, particularly in collectible toys, with the global market expected to reach approximately $15.89 billion in 2025 and grow to $37.97 billion by 2034, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 10.16% from 2025 to 2034 [1][3] - The trend of adult consumers collecting trendy toys is becoming mainstream, with emotional expression and personal interests driving this consumption shift [3][4] - The U.S. toy market is witnessing structural changes, with adult consumers aged 18 and above increasing their spending by approximately 12% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching about $1.8 billion [4] Market Trends - The collectible toy segment, particularly trendy toys, has gained a significant share of over 36% in global consumer preferences, with around 40% of buyers prioritizing limited edition items [1][3] - Emotional support toys are becoming popular, with social media platforms like TikTok showcasing their role in emotional well-being, leading to increased consumer discussions and purchases [3][4] - In the U.S., the toy industry saw a 7% year-on-year sales increase in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by adult consumers and collectible toys [4] Brand Strategies - Brands like Relatable are capitalizing on the emotional support trend by creating products that resonate with consumers' emotional needs, such as the "Emotional Support Pals" series [6][9] - Established IPs are crucial for driving toy sales, as they lower consumer decision-making costs and facilitate long-term purchasing choices [10] - Chinese brand Pop Mart reported a revenue of approximately 13.88 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, a 204.4% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in overseas markets [17][19] Regional Insights - The French toy market reached a total sales volume of 4.3 billion euros in 2024, with around 5 million active collectors spending an average of over 500 euros annually [12] - In Germany, popular brands include LEGO and Playmobil, reflecting consumer preferences for familiarity and quality [14] - The UK toy market saw a sales increase of over 1 billion pounds in the first half of 2025, with licensed toys related to movies and TV shows growing at nearly double the rate of other toys [14] Global Expansion - Chinese brands are increasingly entering the global toy market, with Pop Mart leading the way through social media and limited edition strategies [17][19] - 52TOYS is adopting a dual approach of self-owned and licensed IPs, achieving rapid growth with overseas revenue exceeding 1.47 billion RMB [21] - TOPTOY is exploring overseas markets by leveraging existing channels and localizing production, showing a flexible approach to international retail [23]

Core Viewpoint - LABUBU has transitioned from a "financial product" to an ordinary consumer good, with significant changes in availability and pricing in the secondary market [1][2]. Group 1: Product Availability and Pricing - As of January 3, LABUBU products are readily available for purchase on platforms like Tmall, with a guarantee of shipping within 48 hours, contrasting with previous scarcity [1]. - The resale price of LABUBU's 3.0 series has dropped significantly, nearing the original retail price, with some non-popular items selling for even less [2]. - The LABUBU 4.0 series has not experienced the same level of scarcity, with reports indicating that consumers can easily find stock in stores [2]. Group 2: Market Performance and Company Strategy - Despite a significant increase in stock price over two years, Bubble Mart's stock has seen a decline of approximately 40% since reaching a peak of 339.8 HKD per share, resulting in a market cap loss of over 200 billion HKD [2]. - Industry expert Zhang Shule believes that reducing LABUBU's secondary market prices is essential for Bubble Mart to establish itself as a genuine global IP operation, emphasizing the difference between short-term profit and long-term sustainability [3]. - The rising popularity of the Starry People IP under Bubble Mart suggests a potential shift in revenue sources, although it is uncertain if it can replicate LABUBU's previous success [3].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,445.95, up by 107.48 points or 0.41% as of January 2, 16:00 Eastern Time [1] - The highest price during the trading session was 26,472.92, while the lowest was 26,180.87, with a trading volume of 58.0567 million [1] - The HSI has a 52-week high of 27,275.90 [1] Group 2 - Major blue-chip stocks showed mixed performance, with HSBC Holdings closing at HKD 125.368, up 0.86% from the Hong Kong close [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 627.621, reflecting a 0.74% increase from the Hong Kong close [2] Group 3 - Tencent Holdings (code: 00700) latest price is HKD 623.000, with an increase of HKD 24.000 or 4.01% [3] - Alibaba Group (code: 09988) latest price is HKD 149.000, up by HKD 6.200 or 4.34% [3] - HSBC Holdings (code: 00005) latest price is HKD 124.300, increasing by HKD 1.900 or 1.55% [3] - Other notable stocks include AIA Group (code: 01299) at HKD 83.300, up 4.26%, and Baidu Group (code: 09888) at HKD 143.800, up 9.35% [3]

Core Insights - The price fluctuation of Labubu blind boxes reflects the normal adjustment of the Chinese trendy toy industry, with initial speculative price surges followed by a return to more stable values [2] - Labubu, a popular IP from Pop Mart, significantly contributed to the company's revenue, accounting for over one-third of total income in 2024, leading to a revenue increase of over 100% year-on-year [2] - The overall landscape of the Chinese trendy toy industry shows an uneven distribution of original capabilities, with most companies still struggling to establish stable profitability [3] Company Performance - Pop Mart's revenue reached 13.04 billion yuan in 2024, driven by Labubu, with a projected revenue growth of 204.4% and net profit growth of 396.5% in the first half of 2025 [2] - Other companies like Chengshi Culture and 52TOYS are exploring innovative approaches but face challenges such as losses and limited IP influence [3] Market Dynamics - The Chinese trendy toy market is expected to reach 110 billion yuan by 2026, with an annual growth rate of around 20%, indicating a need for more diverse and enduring IPs beyond a few star products [3] - Compared to global leaders, Chinese trendy toy companies, including Pop Mart, lag significantly in scale and ecosystem, with Pop Mart's annual revenue being about one-fourth of Bandai Namco's and less than one-fifth of LEGO's [4] IP Development - The longevity and success of IPs like Gundam and Dragon Ball, which have decades of market presence, contrast with the relatively short history of domestic IPs like Molly from Pop Mart, raising questions about their sustainability [4] - The industry must shift focus from mere production to creative innovation, emphasizing long-term brand building and stronger intellectual property protections [5] Industry Outlook - The rise and fall of Labubu's prices signify a market returning to rationality, highlighting the importance of cultural value and emotional connection in trendy toys rather than short-term speculation [5] - The true maturation of the Chinese trendy toy industry will depend on the cultivation of diverse, enduring IPs and the emergence of competitive companies on the global stage, requiring dedication and time [5]

Group 1 - Warren Buffett officially retired as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway on December 31, 2025, at the age of 95, but will continue as chairman of the board and retain a significant number of shares [1] - Nvidia is in advanced talks to acquire Israeli AI startup AI21 Labs for up to $3 billion, with AI21 Labs valued at $1.4 billion in a recent funding round [1] - Warner Bros. plans to reject Paramount's acquisition proposal again, as the board is concerned about the lack of an improved offer [2] Group 2 - Kimi completed a $500 million Series C funding round, with over 10 billion RMB in cash reserves, and reported a 170% month-over-month growth in global paid users [3] - Alibaba has open-sourced a new image generation model, Qwen-Image-2512, which significantly enhances texture rendering and supports complex image generation [3] - ByteDance's overseas AI assistant Dola has surpassed 10 million daily active users, focusing on writing, translation, and image capabilities [3] Group 3 - Xiaomi launched a "3 years 0 interest" car purchase plan for the YU7 model, with a down payment starting at 74,900 RMB and monthly payments as low as 4,961 RMB [3] - Li Auto is preparing a significant product adjustment to enhance product strength and reduce internal inefficiencies, focusing on the 300,000 to 400,000 RMB price segment [4] - Yushutech opened its first offline store, indicating that humanoid robots may soon enter households [4][5] Group 4 - The first personal robot, Qiyuan Q1, was launched by Shangwei New Materials, which aims to enter the personal robot market [9] - Zeekr previewed a new SUV model, tentatively named 9S, featuring design similarities to its flagship model 9X [11] - The secondary market prices for certain collectibles from Pop Mart have dropped significantly, with some products now selling below their official retail prices [13]

Summary of Conference Call Records Companies Involved - Pop Mart - Laopu Gold Core Insights and Arguments - Both Pop Mart and Laopu Gold utilize consumer-driven marketing for brand promotion, focusing on aesthetic superiority rather than cost-effectiveness to attract consumers, creating a unique "breaking the circle effect" [1][2] - For the second and third quarters of 2025, both companies expect significant profit growth to approximately 13 billion, driven by increased confidence from rising stock prices. However, recent stock price declines have raised doubts about the 30% growth forecast for 2026 [1][2] - There is a notable divergence in market expectations regarding the 30% growth forecast for 2026. While overseas markets continue to show high growth (Pop Mart over 100%, Laopu Gold 150-200% after price increases), the growth rate has declined compared to earlier in the year, raising concerns about sustainability [1][4] - The inability to predict future performance through traditional store-opening methods adds significant uncertainty to the future performance of both companies. There is intense debate between bullish and bearish perspectives regarding their business models and the decline in overseas growth [1][4] Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Investor confidence is primarily influenced by stock performance and specific sales data. Sales data from January and February 2026, expected in March-April, will provide trend guidance. An increase in stock prices could also enhance market confidence, but the long-term growth potential still requires validation [5] - Pop Mart focuses on building intellectual property (IP) as its core competitive advantage, while Laopu Gold is the world's first jewelry brand primarily made of gold. Both companies have distinct characteristics and have achieved some success overseas, supported by a loyal fan base [3][5] - Investors should recognize the value of these companies and understand their development direction aligns with national policies promoting consumption. Despite short-term uncertainties, there is potential for significant growth if key data points, such as sales figures and stock trends, are monitored [7][6]

以下文章来源于创业板观察 ，作者林嘉豪、沈娇娇 创业板观察 . 创业板观察致力于发布深交所创业板的市场发展、政策变化、监管导向、上市企业动态等的及时信息，提供有价值的市场资讯。 近日，"泡泡玛特开始五折甩卖了"登上热搜。受产能增长并大规模补货影响， 泡泡玛特（09992.HK）多款热门产品二手市场价格快速下 降，部分二手产品价格已跌破官方发售价。 以热度较高的前方高能系列搪胶毛绒挂件（简称"前方高能"）为例，得物APP数据显示，6月14日，前方高能系列单个盲盒成交均价达到峰 值639.3元，溢价5.5倍；同日，隐藏款"本我"成交均价亦达到峰值4522.5元，溢价44.7倍。618大促期间多轮预售之后，二手前方高能价 格"跳水"，伴随之后的多次补货，价格不断下跌。 截至12月31日，其单个盲盒成交均价为116.1元，隐藏款"本我"成交均价为569.9元， 分别较峰值下跌81.8%和87.4%。 图片来源：得物APP截图 其他二手交易平台同样如此。千岛APP显示，前方高能大部分款式二手价格已经跌破官方发售价99元。闲鱼APP上，前方高能端盒成交均价 为459.9元，仅为官方发售价格的77.4%。 图片来源：闲鱼A ...

Core Insights - 2025 is recognized as a "highlight year" for China's IP economy, marking a significant transformation where local IPs are becoming global symbols [1] - The success of "Nezha: The Devil's Child" showcases the potential of Chinese IPs in breaking Hollywood's long-standing dominance in animation [3] - The capital market is witnessing substantial growth in companies like Pop Mart and Laopuhuang, with both seeing stock price increases exceeding 100% in 2025 [1] Group 1: Chinese IP Achievements - "Nezha: The Devil's Child" achieved a domestic box office of 15.446 billion yuan and over 324 million viewers, making it the highest-grossing film in Chinese history [3] - The film's global box office exceeded 15.9 billion yuan (approximately 1.902 billion USD), ranking fifth in global box office history and first in animation history [3] - The film's merchandise generated over 100 million yuan in sales within a week, indicating a successful commercialization of the IP [3] Group 2: Pop Mart's Market Performance - Pop Mart reached a market capitalization peak of approximately 456 billion HKD, with a stock price of 339.8 HKD per share [4] - The company reported a revenue of 13.876 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, and a net profit of 4.574 billion yuan, up 396.5% [4] - Pop Mart's overseas revenue surged by 1,142.3% in the Americas and 257.8% in regions like Singapore and Thailand [6] Group 3: Laopuhuang's Growth - Laopuhuang is gaining international attention, with predictions that it will surpass Richemont's total revenue in China by 2025 [8] - The company achieved a revenue of 12.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 251%, with an average revenue of nearly 500 million yuan per store [9] - Laopuhuang's stock price rose to 618.0 HKD per share by the end of 2025, marking an annual increase of 156.22% [10] Group 4: Broader Implications for Chinese IP - The year 2025 is widely recognized as the "year of Chinese IP," with various companies and products emerging as significant players in the global market [11] - The founder of Miniso emphasized the potential for 100 Chinese IPs to reach global markets in the next decade, indicating a strong future for the industry [11] - The evolution of traditional narratives in Chinese IPs is paving the way for new growth trajectories, reflecting a dynamic shift in cultural storytelling [11]