Core Insights - The automotive market in China is expected to maintain strong growth in 2025, driven by macroeconomic factors and government policies promoting consumption [1] - The differentiation between passenger and commercial vehicles is becoming more pronounced, with passenger vehicle sales projected to grow by 13% in 2025, while commercial vehicles benefit from the electrification trend [4][6] - The performance of major automotive groups is showing significant divergence, with some state-owned enterprises lagging behind, while private companies like BYD and Chery are performing well [8][11] Group 1: Market Trends - The overall automotive market in September showed strong performance, with total sales reaching 3.2 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [6] - The commercial vehicle market is experiencing a structural growth driven by electrification, particularly in logistics and pickup segments [1][4] - The passenger vehicle market is benefiting from trade-in policies, with strong sales growth expected as regions resume previously paused incentives [4][11] Group 2: Sales Performance - From January to September 2025, total automotive sales reached 24.21 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 12% [6] - In September 2025, narrow passenger vehicle sales totaled 2.8 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12% [16] - The sales of new energy passenger vehicles in September reached 1.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 22% [24] Group 3: Company Performance - BYD leads the market, followed by Geely and Chery, with significant growth in their sales figures [18] - Traditional fuel vehicle sales are under pressure, with a projected decline of 10% in 2024, while new energy vehicles continue to gain market share [29][31] - The commercial vehicle segment is seeing strong performance from leading manufacturers like FAW and Heavy Truck, with significant year-on-year increases in sales [40]

Core Insights - Jiangsu Oryson Testing Technology Service Co., Ltd. has signed an annual service framework contract for engine test benches with SAIC Motor Corporation Limited, thereby entering the supplier system of SAIC Group [1] Company Summary - Jiangsu Oryson Testing Technology Service Co., Ltd. is expanding its business by partnering with a major automotive manufacturer, indicating growth potential in the automotive testing services sector [1] - SAIC Motor Corporation Limited is enhancing its supplier network by incorporating Oryson, which may lead to improved service capabilities and operational efficiency [1]

Core Insights - The automotive market in September experienced both month-on-month and year-on-year growth, with retail sales reaching 2.241 million units, a 6.3% increase year-on-year and an 11.0% increase month-on-month [1] - Domestic brands captured two-thirds of the market share, with retail sales of 1.5 million units, reflecting a 13% year-on-year increase and a 12.9% month-on-month increase [2] - New energy vehicles (NEVs) and exports significantly contributed to the growth of domestic brands, with NEV penetration among domestic brands reaching 78.1% [2] Domestic Brands Performance - Domestic brands achieved a retail market share of 66.9% in September, up 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, and a cumulative market share of 64.8% for the first nine months of the year, an increase of 5.9 percentage points [2] - BYD led the domestic brands but experienced its first year-on-year decline in sales since March 2024, with September sales at 396,200 units, down 5.52% [2][4] - Geely and Chery are gaining market share in the NEV sector, with Geely's sales reaching 273,100 units in September, a 35.24% year-on-year increase, and Chery's sales at 255,600 units, an 8.90% increase [5] Joint Venture and Luxury Brands - Joint venture brands faced challenges, with retail sales of 490,000 units in September, down 6% year-on-year, despite a 4% month-on-month increase [6] - Luxury brands saw a slight year-on-year decline, with retail sales of 240,000 units, down 1%, but a 16% month-on-month increase [6] - The market share of German brands decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 14.3% in September, indicating a shift towards domestic brands [6] New Energy Vehicle Market - The penetration rate of NEVs among domestic brands remains high at 70.1%, despite a slight year-on-year decline of 2.3 percentage points [2] - New energy vehicles accounted for 6.6% of joint venture brands and 40% of luxury brands in September [6] Emerging Players - New energy vehicle startups showed significant growth, with Leap Motor leading the segment with approximately 66,700 units delivered in September, a 97% year-on-year increase [8]

Group 1 - The 138th China Import and Export Fair (Canton Fair) opened in Guangzhou, with Guangxi organizing 441 enterprises and 468 exhibits, totaling 783 booths across various sectors including new energy materials and intelligent equipment [1] - The Guangxi trading group featured 310 industrial enterprises, accounting for 70.3% of the exhibitors, showcasing advanced products such as the Dongfeng Liuzhou Automobile's long-range new energy vehicles [1] - Guangxi Yuchai Machinery Group presented innovative products like direct current generators for new energy storage systems and small excavators, attracting significant interest from both new and returning customers [1] Group 2 - To leverage the Canton Fair platform, Guangxi's Commerce Department will host an international trade matchmaking event for the hanger industry, facilitating connections between local enterprises and overseas buyers [2] - The Guangxi trading group, in collaboration with the China Export & Credit Insurance Corporation, launched a special initiative to provide digital services for risk identification and order facilitation during the fair [2] - In the previous 137th Canton Fair, Guangxi's trading group reported an export transaction of approximately $423 million, a 2.1% increase compared to the 135th session, with significant growth in domestic sales [2]

Core Viewpoint - The passenger car sector experienced a rise of 1.61% on October 15, with Haima Automobile leading the gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3912.21, up 1.22% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The passenger car sector's individual stock performance showed significant increases, with notable gainers including: - Haima Automobile (10.00% increase, closing at 6.49) - GAC Group (7.44% increase, closing at 60.8) - Changan Automobile (2.39% increase, closing at 12.84) [1] - The overall trading volume for the passenger car sector was substantial, with Changan Automobile recording a transaction volume of 2.51 million shares and a transaction value of 3.208 billion [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The passenger car sector saw a net inflow of 1.26 billion from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 810 million [1] - Individual stock capital flows indicated: - Changan Automobile had a main fund net inflow of 651 million, while retail investors had a net outflow of 386 million [2] - BYD experienced a main fund net inflow of 245 million, with a retail net outflow of 158 million [2] - Haima Automobile had a main fund net inflow of 238 million, with retail investors seeing a net outflow of 116 million [2]

长江证券研报指出，上汽集团2025年9月销量44.0万辆，同比+40.4%，合资、自主、新能源、海外延续多板块向好。3月以来，公司总销量同比增速呈上升趋势，改革成效持续显现。近期多款 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China Auto Manufacturers** industry, specifically the **New Energy Vehicle (NEV)** market trends as of September 2025. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **NEV Market Growth**: - In September 2025, domestically produced NEV passenger vehicle (NEV-PV) sales increased by **17% month-over-month (MoM)** and **17% year-over-year (YoY)**, surpassing expectations [1][9][10]. 2. **BEV Market Penetration**: - Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) penetration rose, while Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) sales penetration fell to **41.6%**, a decline of **1.9 percentage points (ppt) MoM** [2][10]. 3. **Market Share Changes**: - **Tesla**, **Changan**, and **Seres** gained BEV market share, each increasing by **0.4, 0.4, and 0.2 ppt MoM**, respectively. Conversely, **Geely** and **BYD** lost market share by **1.2 and 0.6 ppt MoM** [2][3]. - **GWM**, **Geely**, and **DF** gained PHEV market share by **1.9, 1.0, and 0.6 ppt MoM**, while **BYD** and **Changan** lost share [2][3]. 4. **Inventory Levels**: - Overall inventory for major OEMs decreased from **2.6 months** at the end of August to **2.3 months** at the end of September [5][26]. - Passenger Vehicle (PV) inventory dropped to **2.0 months**, NEV inventory to **1.4 months**, and ICE inventory to **2.8 months** [5][26]. 5. **Tesla's Performance**: - Tesla's domestic insurance retail sales reached **70,862 units**, a **25% increase MoM** but flat YoY. Wholesales were **90,812 units**, up **9% MoM** and **3% YoY** [4][22]. 6. **Chinese Brands' Market Share**: - Local Chinese brands maintained a high NEV market share of **83.2%**, unchanged MoM, compared to US brands at **12.9%**, which increased by **0.5 ppt MoM** [6][10]. 7. **ICE Market Dynamics**: - German brands saw an increase in ICE market share, while Chinese brands' ICE market share fell by **1.3 ppt MoM** to **33.7%** [3][10]. 8. **Sales Performance by OEM**: - Notable sales figures for September 2025 include: - **BYD**: 342,892 units (-11% YoY) - **Geely**: 158,514 units (+88% YoY) - **Tesla**: 70,862 units (0% YoY) - **Li Auto**: 34,325 units (-35% YoY) [9][22]. Additional Important Insights - The overall NEV-PV retail sales totaled **1,288,348 units**, reflecting a **16% increase YoY** [9][10]. - The report indicates a competitive landscape with significant shifts in market share among both local and international brands, highlighting the dynamic nature of the NEV sector in China [1][6][10]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the current state and trends within the China Auto Manufacturers industry, particularly focusing on the NEV market.

October 14, 2025 10:18 AM GMT China Autos & Shared Mobility | Asia Pacific Investor Presentation: China Autos Overview | Downloaded by Neil.Wang@troweprice.com M | Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | Foundation | | October 14, 2025 10:18 AM GMT | | | | China Autos & Shared Mobility Asia Pacific | Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | | | | Tim Hsiao | | | | Equity Analyst | | | Investor Presentation: China Autos Overview | Tim.Hsiao@morganstanley.com | +85 ...

Investment Highlights - In the first week of October, compulsory insurance reached 463,000 vehicles, down 28.2% week-on-week but up 28.4% month-on-month [2] - The performance of sub-sectors this week ranked as follows: SW Commercial Passenger Vehicles (+7.4%) > SW Motorcycles and Others (-0.9%) > SW Passenger Vehicles (-1.0%) > SW Auto Parts (-1.7%) > SW Commercial Cargo Vehicles (-1.9%) [2] - The top five stocks covered this week included King Long Automobile, Daimay Co., Yutong Bus, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group H, and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group A [2] Industry Core Changes - Xiaopeng Motors appointed Liu Xianming, the head of the World Base Model, as the new leader of the Smart Driving No. 1 position [3] - Seres' subsidiary, Chongqing Phoenix Technology, signed a business cooperation framework agreement with Volcano Engine [3] - Changan's Qiyuan Q07 Tian Shu Intelligent Laser version was officially launched, equipped with Horizon Journey 6M [3] Q4 Investment Opportunities in AI Smart Vehicles - The automotive sector underperformed the broader market this week, with buses performing the best among sub-sectors [4] - Key changes included the leadership change at Xiaopeng Smart Driving, Yutong's September sales exceeding expectations, Seres' collaboration with ByteDance on embodied intelligence, and strong sales in heavy trucks for September [4] Current Configuration of the Automotive Sector - The automotive industry is entering a new crossroads phase, with the electric vehicle (EV) boom nearing its end and smart vehicle technology in a "dark before dawn" stage [5] - Three main investment opportunities are identified: - **AI Smart Vehicle Main Line**: Focus on Robotaxi/van and C-end vehicles - **Upstream Supply Chain Key Stocks**: Include B-end vehicle OEMs and core suppliers in various components [6] - **AI Robot Main Line**: Focus on selected auto parts suppliers [6] - **Dividend & Good Pattern Main Line**: Focus on buses, heavy trucks, and two-wheelers [6] Weekly Automotive Sector Performance - The automotive sector's performance this week was mixed, with SW Commercial Cargo Vehicles performing the best [20] - The top five stocks in the automotive sector this week included Songyuan Safety, Jingwei Hengrun-W, Seres, New Spring Co., and Yadi Holdings [26] Valuation Metrics - This week, the PE (TTM) of SW Auto, SW Passenger Vehicles, SW Commercial Cargo Vehicles, and SW Auto Parts increased, while SW Commercial Passenger Vehicles' PE (TTM) decreased [34] - The global vehicle valuation PS (TTM) remained stable, with A-share vehicle valuations also stable [44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive parts industry, suggesting an "Overweight" rating, indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][11]. Core Insights - The automotive parts sector is experiencing a sustained rally, driven by developments in the robotics sector, particularly influenced by Tesla's supply chain. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring Tesla's dynamics and suggests focusing on bottom opportunities as many stocks in the sector have reached relatively high levels [2][3]. - Key companies to watch include Xingyu, Changshu Automotive Trim, Daimay, and Ningbo Huaxiang, which are expected to benefit from upcoming quarterly performance releases and fundamental changes [2][3]. Company Summaries Xingyu - Xingyu is shifting its strategic focus from domestic new energy vehicle clients to expanding into overseas markets, particularly in Europe, with strengthened collaborations with Volkswagen and BMW. The company anticipates securing headlight project designations by the end of this year or next year, with production ramping up in overseas factories starting in 2027 [4]. - The domestic market growth from 2025 to 2027 is expected to be driven by the adoption of high-end headlights by new energy vehicle clients, with potential increases in per-vehicle value from over 1,000 yuan for standard LEDs to over 4,000 yuan for HD headlights and even 10,000 yuan for DLP headlights [4]. - The competitive landscape is favorable for domestic leaders like Xingyu, as international competitors face operational pressures, providing a conducive environment for growth [4]. Changshu Automotive Trim - The company is focusing on applications involving PEEK materials, leveraging its core capabilities in injection molding. A recent strategic partnership with a Dutch sensor company aims to develop next-generation tactile sensing technology for automotive and robotics manufacturing, with plans for mass production in China [5]. Ningbo Huaxiang - Ningbo Huaxiang is entering the robotics sector through its unique ODM model, which is considered rare. The company has established a presence in the PEEK materials field, which may yield cost advantages. Expected profits for next year are around 1.5 billion yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of approximately 20 times for 2026 [5]. Daimay - As an interior parts supplier, Daimay's capabilities align with the transformation into biomimetic materials and robotic skin. The company is a supplier for Tesla and has a mature overseas customer base, suggesting potential developments in the robotics field [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic leading manufacturers such as BYD, Geely, and XPeng, as well as companies with strong performance growth and capabilities in robotics or overseas expansion, including Fuyao Glass, Xinquan, Fuda, Shuanghuan Transmission, and Yinlun [2].