点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【杭州银行（600926.SH）】扩表强度高，盈利增速稳——2025年一季报点评 杭州银行25Q1营收、拨备前利润、归母净利润同比增速分别为2.2%、3%、17.3%，利息收入贡献季环比 提升，盈利增速维持高位。2025年是杭州银行"二二五五"战略收官之年，更是新征程的起笔之处，1Q信 贷投放实现"开门红"，资产质量保持稳健，盈利增速在17%以上，基本面韧性较强。 （王一峰/董文欣） 2025-04-29 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【盈峰环境（000967.SZ）】环卫装备销量连续24年国内第一，环卫电动化推进行业领先——2024年年报 &2025年一季报点评 （洪吉然） 2025-04-29 您可点击今日推送内 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 2025Q1实现营业收入104.46亿元，同比+2.9%，主要受销量带动。2025Q1公司累计实现销量226.1万千 升，同比+3.5%。从产品结构看，2025Q1青岛啤酒主品牌销量137.5万千升，同比+4.1%；中高端以上产品 实现销量101.1万千升，同比+5.3%，随着即饮消费场景逐步恢复，公司中高端以上产品销量占比提升。从 吨价来看，2025Q1公司ASP同比-0.6%至4620元/千升。 积极控本降费，净利率改善明显 1）25Q1公司毛利率为41.64%，同比+1.20pcts，主要系大麦和包材等价格下降。此外，中高端以上产品销 量占比提升，亦推动毛利率改善。2）25Q1公司销售费用率为12.53%，同比- ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a positive outlook for the beverage sector, driven by the upcoming peak season and supportive macroeconomic policies from the central government [2][12] - The report emphasizes the potential for valuation recovery in the liquor sector, particularly in light of the recent political bureau meeting that indicated a more proactive fiscal and monetary policy [2][12] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - For the week of April 21 to April 25, the food and beverage sector declined by 1.36%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.38%. Notable performances included snacks (+4.50%) and soft drinks (+2.21%), while categories like beer (-0.72%) and health products (-1.28%) saw declines [1][19] Weekly Perspective Updates - **Liquor Sector**: The liquor sector saw a decline of 1.75%, attributed to the off-peak consumption period and inventory adjustments. However, the upcoming May Day holiday is expected to boost demand for banquet scenarios, aiding in inventory reduction [2][12] - **Beer and Beverage Sector**: The beer sector decreased by 0.72%, but companies like Zhujiang Brewery saw a 5.7% increase in stock price due to better-than-expected Q1 performance. The report anticipates improved demand as the weather warms and consumption policies are implemented [3][13] - **Consumer Goods Sector**: The report identifies opportunities in the snack sector, with a focus on companies that have shown resilience and potential for growth. The upcoming sales season for soft drinks is also highlighted as a catalyst for growth [3][14] Investment Recommendations - **Liquor Sector**: Recommended stocks include strong alpha leaders like Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as cyclical stocks like Luzhou Laojiao and Jiugui Liquor [4][18] - **Consumer Goods**: The report recommends focusing on snacks and dairy products, with specific mentions of companies like Ganyuan Foods and Yuyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from low base effects in Q2 [4][18] Sector and Individual Stock Performance - The report provides detailed performance metrics for various sectors, indicating that the snack and soft drink sectors are currently outperforming others, while the liquor sector is under pressure [19][22]

盈利预测：看好25Q2&Q3 低基数下公司销量端持续改善。24 年公司经历库存水平调整，整体渠道库存 良性，叠加Q2&3 销量基数较低。我们看好公司量端的恢复弹性。我们预计公司25-27 年实现营收 331.4/340.6/349.0 亿元，分别同比+3.1%/+2.8%/+2.5%，实现归母净利润47.4/50.2/52.4 亿元，分别同比 +9.0%/+6.0%/+4.4%，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 成本端红利延续，毛利率提升，盈利能力有所提升。25Q1 公司吨成本同比-2.6%，毛利率同比+1.2pcts 至41.6%。费用端，销售/管理/财务费用率分别同比-0.3pcts/-0.2pcts/+0.4pcts。在毛利率提升及费控良好 的带动下，25Q1 公司归母净利率同比+0.6pcts至16.4%，扣非归母净利率同比+0.4pcts至15.3%。 事件：公司发布2025 年第一季度报告，25Q1 实现营业收入104.5 亿元，同比+2.9%；实现归母净利润 17.1 亿元，同比+7.1%；实现扣非归母净利润16.0亿元，同比+5.9%。 25Q1 销量改善兑现，展望Q2&Q3，在低基数下销量有望持续改善 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve better-than-industry performance in 2025 due to low base effects and strengthened internal momentum, with projected EPS of 3.55, 3.86, and 4.19 RMB for 2025-2027 [4][6]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue and net profit growth of 2.9% and 7.1% year-on-year, respectively, aligning with expectations [1][2]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 10.45 billion RMB and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.71 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 41.6%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [1][3]. - The sales volume of beer reached 2.261 million tons in Q1 2025, reflecting a 3.5% year-on-year increase, driven by the recovery in the restaurant sector and inventory destocking [2][3]. Cost and Efficiency - The report highlights significant cost benefits, with a 2.6% decrease in per-ton cost and a 0.3 percentage point reduction in sales expense ratio, contributing to improved profitability [3][4]. - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency, which is expected to continue supporting profit margins [3][4]. Market Outlook - The company is entering a peak season for inventory replenishment, with expectations for accelerated sales growth as northern weather warms and economic activity increases [1][2]. - The report anticipates that the recovery in the restaurant sector will boost sales of mid-to-high-end products, while the company continues to promote the canned format of lower-end products [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve better-than-industry performance in 2025 due to low base effects and strengthened internal momentum, with projected EPS of 3.55, 3.86, and 4.19 RMB for 2025-2027 [4][6]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed revenue and net profit growth driven by sales recovery and cost improvements, with revenue at 10.45 billion RMB and net profit at 1.71 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year increases of 2.9% and 7.1% respectively [1][3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, the company sold 2.261 million tons of beer, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, supported by the recovery in the restaurant sector and inventory reduction [2][3]. - The average revenue per ton of beer decreased slightly by 0.6% year-on-year, while sales of mid-to-high-end products increased by 5.3% [2][3]. Profitability - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 41.6%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a decrease in raw material costs [3]. - The net profit margin increased by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year to 16.4%, supported by improved operational efficiency and cost reductions [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory in 2025, with anticipated revenue and profit growth driven by seasonal demand and ongoing cost advantages [4][6]. - The target price for the A-share is set at 92.30 RMB, and for the H-share at 71.78 HKD, based on a PE ratio of 26x for 2025 [4][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 10.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.71 billion yuan, up 7.1% year-on-year [1][2]. - The sales volume increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with a notable rise in the proportion of mid-to-high-end products, which saw a sales increase of 5.3% [2]. - The company improved its gross margin to 41.64%, up 1.20 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower prices for barley and packaging materials, as well as an increase in the sales proportion of higher-margin products [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 operating revenue was 10.446 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9% driven by sales volume [2]. - The company reported a net profit of 1.71 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.1% increase year-on-year [1]. - The average selling price (ASP) decreased by 0.6% to 4,620 yuan per thousand liters [2]. Cost Control and Profitability - The gross margin improved to 41.64%, up 1.20 percentage points year-on-year, due to lower raw material costs and a higher sales proportion of mid-to-high-end products [3]. - The sales expense ratio decreased to 12.53%, down 0.29 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved efficiency in expense allocation [3]. - The net profit margin reached 16.64%, an increase of 0.65 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see improved profitability in 2025 due to low year-on-year comparisons and a favorable cost environment, with raw material costs projected to decline [4]. - The new management team, which completed its transition at the end of 2024, is anticipated to enhance operational efficiency [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 4.846 billion, 5.171 billion, and 5.442 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.55, 3.79, and 3.99 yuan [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer, with a target price of 90 CNY and 70 HKD [2][6]. Core Views - The company reported a good start in Q1 2025, with total revenue of 10.446 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.71 billion CNY, up 7.08% year-on-year [2][6]. - The report anticipates an acceleration in sales during the peak season, supported by reduced inventory levels and a focus on sales growth strategies [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Total revenue is projected to grow from 32.138 billion CNY in 2024 to 33.639 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 4.7% [2][6]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 4.345 billion CNY in 2024 to 4.875 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 12.2% [2][6]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is forecasted to rise from 3.19 CNY in 2024 to 3.57 CNY in 2025 [2][6]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 24 times in 2024 to 22 times in 2025 [2][6]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 3.6 times in 2024 to 3.4 times in 2025 [2][6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has achieved a sales volume increase of 3.5% in Q1 2025, with a focus on premium products contributing to overall growth [6][7]. - The report highlights the importance of cost reduction and scale effects, with a decrease in unit costs by 2.6% to 2,696 CNY per ton in Q1 2025 [6][7]. - The management's strategy includes flexible product mix adjustments and increased investment in marketing to boost sales during the upcoming peak season [6][7].

投资要点： 成本红利延续，盈利能力同比优化。根据公司公告，测算2025Q1 公司吨酒成本为2696.3 元/吨，同比下 降2.6%，主因去年同期使用了部分高价麦芽，以及今年麦芽价格进一步下降。2025Q1 公司毛利率为 41.64%， 同比提升1.2pct 。费用端， 2025Q1 公司销售/管理/ 研发费用率分别为12.53%/3.2%/0.17%，分 别同比-0.29/-0.2/基本持平。费用率优化预计一方面是公司优化了费用投放方式，另一方面来自于销量 表现回暖后规模效应增强。2025Q1 公司归母净利率为16.37%，同比提升0.64pct。净利率提升幅度小于 毛利率，主因2025Q1 公允价值变动收益减少，以及利息收入减少等因素所致。 股价表现的催化剂：餐饮消费改善，产品提价。 核心假设风险：中高端竞争加剧，原材料成本超预期上涨。 事件：公司发布2025 年一季报，根据公司公告，2025Q1 公司实现营业总收入104.46 亿，同比增长 2.9%，归母净利润17.1 亿，同比增长7.08%，扣非净利润16.03 亿，同比增长5.9%，公司业绩符合预 期。 投资评级与估值：维持盈利预测，预测2025~2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Qingdao Beer has crossed the pressure point in Q1 2025, with expectations for volume and price to accelerate in the future [7] - The company reported a revenue of 10.446 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.710 billion yuan, up 7.08% year-on-year [7] - The report highlights that the sales volume in Q1 2025 increased by 3.53% to 2.261 million tons, indicating resilience and a positive outlook for the upcoming quarters [7] - The gross profit margin improved, with a net profit margin rising to 16.64%, reflecting better operational efficiency [7] - The report emphasizes that Qingdao Beer is a quality stock with both offensive and defensive characteristics, benefiting from restaurant recovery and management enhancements [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for Qingdao Beer are as follows: 33.614 billion yuan in 2025, 34.783 billion yuan in 2026, and 35.909 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 4.59%, 3.48%, and 3.24% [1][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 4.845 billion yuan in 2025, 5.350 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.736 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 11.51%, 10.43%, and 7.21% respectively [1][8] - The report projects the earnings per share (EPS) to be 3.55 yuan in 2025, 3.92 yuan in 2026, and 4.20 yuan in 2027 [1][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 21.75 in 2025 to 18.38 in 2027, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [1][8]