Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, particularly for the liquor sector, indicating a positive outlook based on policy support and expected recovery in demand [1]. Core Insights - China's consumption policies are positively oriented, leading to an uplift in expectations for the liquor industry. The government has emphasized the need to boost consumption and expand domestic demand through various initiatives [7][32]. - The liquor industry's performance is expected to show differentiation, with a forecast of a "front low and back high" trend for the year, as demand gradually recovers and the previous year's low base effects come into play [7][32]. - Liquor valuations are currently below historical averages, suggesting potential for recovery as market sentiment improves amid easing external uncertainties [7][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Positive Policy Orientation and Liquor Recovery Expectations - The report highlights that recent government meetings have focused on boosting consumption and investment efficiency, which is expected to positively impact the liquor market [7][32]. - The liquor market has experienced a three-year adjustment period, and the current economic recovery is anticipated to drive the liquor cycle upward [15][32]. 2. Liquor Sales Stability and Confidence Boosting Measures - Liquor sales during the Spring Festival saw a decline of approximately 10% year-on-year, but there are signs of improvement in demand post-holiday [36]. - Companies are implementing inventory control measures to stabilize prices during the off-season, which is expected to improve supply-demand dynamics [33][38]. - High-end liquor prices are expected to remain stable, with key brands maintaining their pricing strategies amid positive consumption policies [39]. 3. Market Dynamics and Company Strategies - The report notes that leading liquor companies are adopting pragmatic strategies focused on stability and quality, with many emphasizing consumer-centric approaches in their business models [44][46]. - Several companies, including Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, are actively engaging in share buybacks and increasing their holdings to bolster market confidence [48]. 4. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as regional brands showing strong sales performance [7][32]. - It also recommends monitoring companies that have experienced significant declines and may be poised for recovery, such as Shede Liquor and Shui Jing Fang [7][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) with a target price of 285 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company has a solid operational foundation, allowing for flexible management strategies. The revenue for Q1 2025 is expected to show a strong start, with a projected double-digit growth for 2024. The company is focusing on maintaining stable inventory and pricing while enhancing product structure assessments [6][7]. - The company aims to strengthen its market presence in both domestic and provincial markets, with a particular focus on expanding its distribution network in East and South China [6][7]. - The report highlights the effectiveness of the "Fen Enjoy" program in managing market dynamics and pricing strategies, which is expected to further enhance sales performance [6][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 31,928 million CNY in 2023 to 46,569 million CNY in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.8%, 17.3%, 12.9%, and 10.1% respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 10,438 million CNY in 2023 to 15,799 million CNY in 2026, with growth rates of 28.9%, 19.7%, 13.9%, and 11.0% respectively [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 8.56 CNY in 2023 to 12.95 CNY in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 25 to 16 over the same period [2][10]. Market Positioning - The company has established a leading market share in its home province, with plans to enhance product structure while ensuring a stable growth trajectory. The focus will be on key products like Qing 20 and Lao Bai Fen, which are expected to see significant growth [6][7]. - The report indicates that the company is well-positioned to capitalize on any recovery in external demand, which could lead to a rapid rebound in performance metrics [6][7].

Group 1 - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 major consumer index increased by 0.28%, closing at 22,960.31 points with a trading volume of 14.755 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the major consumer index has risen by 6.27%, while it has decreased by 0.04% over the last three months and increased by 0.81% year-to-date [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the major consumer index include Kweichow Moutai (45.05%), Wuliangye (11.78%), Yili (8.19%), Muyuan Foods (4.97%), Shanxi Fenjiu (4.73%), Luzhou Laojiao (4.43%), Wens Foodstuff (4.14%), Haitian Flavoring (3.08%), Dongpeng Beverage (2.2%), and Yanghe Brewery (2.11%) [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange accounts for 66.27% of the major consumer index holdings, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounts for 33.73% [2] - The major consumer index is composed entirely of consumer-related stocks, with a 100% allocation [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2]

Core Points - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Food and Beverage Index is reported at 24,563.26 points, with a recent one-month increase of 6.60% and a year-to-date increase of 0.73% [1] - The index is composed of 300 sample stocks categorized into 11 primary industries, 35 secondary industries, over 90 tertiary industries, and more than 200 quaternary industries [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Kweichow Moutai (51.19%), Wuliangye (13.41%), Yili (9.35%), Shanxi Fenjiu (5.36%), and others [1] Market Composition - The Shanghai Stock Exchange accounts for 75.29% of the holdings in the index, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounts for 24.71% [2] - In terms of industry composition, liquor represents 80.91%, dairy products 9.35%, condiments and cooking oils 4.48%, soft drinks 2.45%, meat products 1.41%, and beer 1.40% [2] Index Adjustment Mechanism - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with temporary adjustments made in response to changes in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index samples [2] - Special events affecting sample companies may lead to adjustments in the industry index samples, including delisting or corporate actions such as mergers and acquisitions [2]

汾酒走进2025全球南方金融家论坛:共饮一杯汾酒 全球南方友谊天长地久 2025全球南方金融家论坛于3月19日至21日在北京举办，众多国内外金融领域的机构负责人、专家及行 业领袖齐聚一堂，致力于为全球南方金融界搭建关键交流平台，共同探索适配发展需求的金融模式。 论坛期间，汾酒作为中国知名白酒品牌，凭借独特风味与深厚文化底蕴，为来自全球南方的参会嘉宾带 来了别样体验。在交流活动中，一杯杯汾酒承载着中国的热情与友好，传递到嘉宾手中。瑞士外国记者 协会主席让・穆西品尝汾酒后，对汾酒赞不绝口，他表示此次论坛意义非凡，正如品尝汾酒带来全新味 觉体验一样，大家通过论坛在此尝试碰撞新思想、收获新发现。瑞士外国记者协会副主席彼得・肯尼也 发表看法，他非常期待，通过此次论坛，中国与南方国家和地区能达成更深层次合作。 共饮汾酒，不仅为金融探讨营造了轻松氛围，更在无形中加深了彼此间的情谊。汾酒以其独特魅力，助 力全球南方国家和地区代表们在交流合作中增进了解，让全球南方的友谊如同汾酒般香醇久远，为全球 经济稳定繁荣与友好合作注入了独特的文化力量。(杨哲 马振宁 白志斌) ...

Group 1 - The compound seasoning industry is expected to reach a revenue of 134.1 billion CNY in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% from 2019 to 2024 [16][21][29] - The hot pot base market is projected to maintain a growth rate of over 5% in the next five years, with a market size of approximately 600 billion CNY [33][35] - The Chinese compound seasoning sector is still in its growth phase, with significant opportunities for new product development, particularly in categories like sauerkraut fish and crayfish seasoning [41][43] Group 2 - In February, the food and beverage sector outperformed the market by 2.2 percentage points, with sub-sectors like liquor showing strong performance [12][20] - The valuation of the food and beverage sector is at historical lows, with the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio at the 12th percentile and the price-to-book (PB) ratio at the 23rd percentile since 2010 [12][24] - The net inflow of southbound funds in February reached 152.8 billion HKD, indicating strong interest in stocks like Qingdao Beer and COFCO Joycome [12][14] Group 3 - The liquor market is experiencing a recovery, with companies controlling inventory and maintaining prices, as seen with the price of Moutai at 2,210 CNY per bottle [17][32] - The sales of consumer goods improved in February, particularly in beer, dairy products, and frozen foods, while raw material prices showed mixed trends [18][19] - The overall retail sales in January and February 2025 are expected to grow by 4.0% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [28][31] Group 4 - Investment recommendations include key players in the liquor sector such as Luzhou Laojiao, Jinshiyuan, and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as consumer goods companies like Yanjing Beer and Tianwei Foods [10][12] - The report emphasizes the potential for new product launches in the compound seasoning market, driven by changing consumer preferences and the expansion of retail channels like Sam's Club [41][43] - The macroeconomic environment is improving, which is expected to boost consumer confidence and spending, further supporting the growth of the food and beverage sector [29][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry, indicating that the overall upward risk outweighs the downward risk, especially with the current low positioning of the sector [1][3]. Core Insights - The industry is currently in a "corporate agony period," with signs of a bottom reversal established. The report suggests that while performance may be under pressure in the next two quarters, stock prices are expected to rebound [1][7][27]. - High-end liquor and strong regional brands are anticipated to lead the market recovery, with a particular focus on the evolution of Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu [1][7][42]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Historical Review of the Industry - The previous adjustment period from 2012 to 2015 saw stock prices decline ahead of performance, with a notable drop of 61% in the index from its peak [11][16]. - The report outlines two phases during the last cycle: the "channel agony period" and the "corporate agony period," highlighting how stock prices often lead performance by 2-3 quarters [11][20]. Section 2: Current Cycle Analysis - The current cycle has transitioned from a "channel agony period" starting in 2022 to a "corporate agony period," with inventory levels decreasing and market conditions improving [7][27]. - The report notes that the current adjustment has been less severe than the previous one, with the index experiencing a 45% decline from its peak, compared to a more rapid decline in the earlier cycle [27][30]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong market dynamics and improved strategic capabilities, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, which are expected to outperform due to their robust distribution networks and mature pricing strategies [1][7][42]. - It also highlights the potential for leading brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye to benefit from the recovery, as they have historically led rebounds in previous cycles [1][42]. Section 4: Market Performance Metrics - The report provides data on the industry scale, noting 143 listed companies with a total market value of 5,313 billion [3]. - It also includes performance metrics, indicating a 6.3% absolute performance over one month and a 37.6% performance over six months [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the liquor industry, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Jiangsu Yanghe, and others, indicating a positive outlook for long-term investment [4][44]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is currently in an adjustment phase post-Spring Festival, with no significant improvement in fundamentals observed. The second quarter is critical for verifying these fundamentals [4][5]. - Sales performance is generally flat, with differentiation among brands and consumption scenarios. High-end liquor consumption is decreasing, while mid-range and budget segments maintain some sales [4][5]. - Price stability is noted across various price segments, with key products like Moutai and Wuliangye maintaining stable prices of 2200 RMB and 930-940 RMB respectively [4][5]. - Channel inventory levels have not significantly decreased, with some brands actively managing inventory through reduced shipments. Moutai's inventory remains healthy, while other brands like Wuliangye and Fenjiu show slight increases compared to last year [4][5]. - Payment collection rates vary, with some brands experiencing slower collection compared to last year. Moutai and Fenjiu are close to last year's collection rates, while others like Wuliangye and Yanghe are lagging [4][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Perspective - The liquor industry is entering a seasonal lull post-Spring Festival, with a need for patience in verifying fundamental improvements. Sales are flat, with a recovery in banquet scenarios but no revival in business scenarios [4][5]. - The price system remains stable, with key products maintaining their prices. Moutai's price has slightly increased during the spring season [4][5]. - Inventory levels are stable, with some brands managing stock through reduced shipments. Moutai's inventory is in good condition, while others have seen slight increases [4][5]. Brand-Specific Insights - Moutai: Payment collection at 40%, stable pricing, and healthy inventory levels. Moutai 1935's price has slightly increased [5]. - Wuliangye: Payment collection at 40-50%, with inventory around one month. Price remains stable at 930-940 RMB [5]. - Shanxi Fenjiu: Payment collection at 40-50%, with slight price decreases. Inventory levels are higher than last year but manageable [5]. - Jiangsu Yanghe: Payment collection below 40%, with inventory levels around three months. Sales have decreased [5]. - Other brands like Jianzhu and Water Well have varying performance, with some showing stable sales while others face challenges [5][8]. Regional Insights - Different regions show varied performance, with some areas like Henan and Jiangsu maintaining stable growth for brands like Moutai and Guojing. However, overall demand remains weak due to economic conditions [8][12][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [6]. Core Insights - The recent local fertility policies have effectively boosted consumer confidence, particularly benefiting the liquor and dairy sectors [4][5]. - The liquor sector is currently at a low valuation, presenting a high margin of safety, and is expected to benefit directly from the recovery in consumption and increased consumer spending [4]. - The dairy sector is experiencing significant growth due to new child-rearing subsidies, which are expected to lower the cost of childbirth and increase birth rates, thus driving demand for dairy products [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector has shown a monthly performance increase of 9.0%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has increased by 1.7% over the same period [2]. Investment Views - In the liquor sector, companies such as Shui Jing Fang, Shanxi Fenjiu, Shede Liquor, and Jiu Gui Jiu are recommended based on their valuation advantages. Long-term recommendations include Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and others [4]. - The dairy sector has seen a significant rise, with companies like Ximai Food, Youyou Food, and others being highlighted for their growth potential [5]. Key Company Feedback - Luzhou Laojiao's stock price is at 143.61, with an EPS forecast of 9.00 for 2023 and a PE ratio of 15.96, rated as "Buy" [10]. - Gujing Gongjiu is also rated as "Buy," with a stock price of 193.54 and an EPS forecast of 8.68 for 2023 [10]. Industry Data Trends - The liquor industry reported a total revenue of 756.3 billion in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.7% [54]. - The cumulative production of liquor in 2024 reached 4.145 million tons, showing a decrease of 7.72% year-on-year [53]. - The seasoning industry has seen its market size grow from 259.5 billion in 2014 to 592.3 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 9.6% [56].

超配（维持） 食品饮料行业双周报（2025/02/28-2025/03/13） 行 食品饮料行业 2025 年 3 月 14 日 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 两会积极定调，关注需求复苏进程 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 行 业 研 究 业 周 报 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 食品饮料（申万）指数走势 资料来源：同花顺,东莞证券研究所 相关报告 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 行情回顾：2025年2月28日-2025年3月13日，SW食品饮料行业指数整体 上涨1.62%，板块涨幅位居申万一级行业第十位，跑赢同期沪深300指数 约3.05个百分点。 ◼ 行业周观点：两会积极定调，关注需求复苏进程。今年政府工作报告提 出，要大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求。此外，国 务院新闻办公室将于2025年3月17日下午3时举行新闻发布会，请有关 ...