Investment Rating - Investment advice indicates a sector recovery catalyzed by recent CPI data, focusing on growth and supply-demand inflection points [5][16]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer goods growth, particularly in beverages, snacks, and food ingredients, while also highlighting structural opportunities in the baijiu sector [5][16]. - CPI data shows a positive trend with October CPI year-on-year at +0.2% and core CPI at +1.2%, indicating a recovery in domestic demand [6][16]. - The baijiu industry is undergoing accelerated clearing, with expectations for improved sales and inventory adjustments leading into 2026 [7][16]. - Consumer goods are expected to benefit from stabilization and recovery, with a focus on low valuation and high dividend stocks [8][16]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended baijiu stocks include Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory, Gujing Distillery, and stable targets like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [5][16]. - Beverage growth is highlighted with recommendations for Eastroc Beverage and Nongfu Spring, alongside low valuation stocks like China Foods and Tingyi [5][16]. - Snack and food ingredient stocks recommended include Bailong Chuangyuan, Yankershop Food, and Three Squirrels [5][16]. - Beer recommendations include Yanjing Brewery and Tsingtao Brewery, while condiment stocks like Haitian Flavoring & Food are also suggested [5][16]. Baijiu Sector Insights - The baijiu sector is experiencing a significant adjustment, with industry destocking still in progress and a focus on promotional sales for 2026 [7][16]. - Recent sales data from JD.com shows a +18% year-on-year increase in liquor sales during the Double 11 shopping festival, indicating a positive market response [7][16]. Consumer Goods Outlook - Consumer goods are expected to see growth as the mainline, with structural differentiation evident in beverages, snacks, and health products [8][16]. - The report notes that companies with product innovation and channel expansion will have growth advantages, particularly in the context of recent service and non-food price recoveries [8][16].

Group 1 - The food ETF (515710) showed weak performance with a decline of 0.32% and a trading volume of 54.66 million yuan as of November 17 [1] - Leading stocks in the food sector included Tianwei Food, Lianhua Holdings, and Kweichow Moutai, with increases of 2.06%, 1.37%, and 0.65% respectively [1] - Conversely, Dongpeng Beverage, Yunnan Energy Investment, and Yanghe Distillery experienced declines of 3.02%, 2.34%, and 2.33% respectively [1] Group 2 - The white liquor industry is undergoing a destocking phase, with expectations of recovery in demand and economic revival by Q4 2025 [2] - The trend towards healthier snacks is evident, with categories like konjac continuing to benefit, and leading companies are expected to gain from this trend [2] - The dairy product demand is gradually recovering, with raw milk prices potentially stabilizing [2] Group 3 - The food ETF and its linked funds passively track a segmented food index, with the top ten weighted stocks including Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [2]

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry in China is undergoing a deep adjustment period due to policy changes, consumption structure transformation, and intense competition, with a focus on quality and brand vitality for sustainable growth [1][6][28] Group 1: Industry Context - The year 2025 marks a transitional phase for the Chinese economy, emphasizing the need to expand domestic demand and boost consumption as key supports for high-quality development [1] - The white liquor industry is a significant part of the domestic consumption market and is currently facing challenges from policy adjustments and market competition [1][6] - The "十四五" (14th Five-Year Plan) and "十五五" (15th Five-Year Plan) are pivotal for the strategic planning of the industry [1] Group 2: Shanxi Fenjiu's Development Strategy - Shanxi Fenjiu is entering the second phase of its revival from 2025 to 2030, focusing on consolidating achievements and adjusting resources while transitioning from speed-oriented growth to quality-driven development [6][28] - The company aims to maintain a balance between stability and progress, recognizing the challenges ahead while fostering confidence in its growth trajectory [6][28] Group 3: High-Quality Development Initiatives - A strategic seminar was held to explore how the white liquor industry can navigate complex challenges and achieve high-quality development, gathering insights from various sectors [3][4] - The seminar emphasized the importance of integrating cultural tourism with brand building to enhance consumer engagement and experience [7][8] Group 4: Consumer Trends and Market Dynamics - The white liquor market is witnessing a shift towards quality and cultural significance, with consumers increasingly valuing product quality and brand heritage [15][20] - The industry is expected to balance supply and demand, price and value, and stability and growth in response to evolving consumer preferences [16][17] Group 5: Marketing and Brand Strategy - Engaging younger consumers is crucial for the future of Shanxi Fenjiu, necessitating innovative cultural expressions and marketing strategies [20][27] - The use of digital technology and short video platforms is highlighted as essential for modern brand communication and consumer engagement [23][25] Group 6: Collaborative Efforts and Future Outlook - The need for multi-party collaboration is emphasized to enhance strategic execution and resource sharing for sustained growth [30][31] - The company aims to leverage opportunities from the "Belt and Road" initiative to expand its international presence and cultural exchange [30][31]

Core Insights - The overall retail price of major products in the Chinese liquor industry remains stable, with some brands experiencing price increases [1] Price Changes - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ saw a price increase of 6 yuan per bottle, marking its third consecutive day of price rise [1] - Xijiu Junpin increased by 4 yuan per bottle, continuing its second day of growth [1] - Qinghua Fen 20 and Shuijing Jian'nanchun both experienced a slight increase of 1 yuan per bottle [1] - Guizhou Moutai Feitian's price decreased slightly by 1 yuan per bottle [1] Price Table Summary - Guizhou Moutai Feitian (53°/500ml) priced at 1840 yuan, down by 1 yuan [3] - Wuliangye Pu Wu 8th generation (52°/500ml) priced at 863 yuan, down by 470 yuan [3] - Qinghua Fen 20 (53°/500ml) priced at 382 yuan, up by 1 yuan [3] - Guojiao 1573 (52°/500ml) priced at 878 yuan, unchanged [3] - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ (52°/550ml) priced at 578 yuan [3] - Xijiu Junpin (52°/500ml) priced at 658 yuan [3]

Summary of Conference Call on Dairy and Beverage Industry Industry Overview - The dairy industry is experiencing a continuous capacity reduction, with expectations for supply-demand balance improvement by mid to late 2026, leading to potential stabilization in milk prices. As of October, milk prices remained stable at 2.94 yuan per kilogram, with a production loss of approximately 0.2 yuan per kilogram and a loss rate of about 5% [2][2][2]. Key Points on Dairy Companies New Dairy Industry - New Dairy reported a strong performance in October, continuing the trend from Q3, with double-digit growth in low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt. The company is expanding into new channels, achieving significant revenue from collaborations, and is expected to meet its profit margin targets ahead of schedule by 2026 [4][4][4]. Mengniu Dairy - Mengniu's Q3 results met expectations, with stable market share following price reductions on its flagship product. The company anticipates stable revenue and profit margin growth through 2026, with a relatively low valuation providing investment flexibility [5][5][5]. Yili Group - Despite weak overall demand, Yili's low-temperature milk and other segments showed positive growth, with low-temperature white milk exceeding 20% growth. The company is expected to stabilize its liquid milk business by 2026, benefiting from diversified product offerings and channels [6][7][6][7]. Miao Ke Lan Duo and Youran Dairy - Miao Ke Lan Duo is experiencing rapid growth in the B-end market, with significant C-end product launches. The company is expanding its deep processing of dairy products, which is expected to improve profitability. Youran Dairy is increasing fresh milk supply with stable prices, supporting profits, and is projected to enhance profitability further with a reduction in livestock numbers [8][8][8]. Beverage Industry Insights Master Kong - Master Kong's beverage business saw a slight decline in Q3, but the drop has narrowed in October. The company expects to stabilize its beverage business next year, with a focus on promotional activities and potential price adjustments for its one-liter products [9][10][9][10]. Nongfu Spring - Nongfu Spring's water business experienced double-digit growth in October, with its sugar-free tea brand capturing nearly 80% market share. The company is expected to maintain steady revenue and profit growth, making it a strong long-term investment choice [10][10][10]. Dongpeng Beverage - Dongpeng Beverage reported a nearly 30% growth rate, with ambitious annual targets. The company shows significant growth potential from a valuation perspective [10][10][10]. Investment Recommendations - The dairy sector is recommended for investment due to expected improvements in profitability and market conditions by 2026. Companies like Mengniu, Yili, and New Dairy are highlighted for their growth potential and stable valuations [5][7][4][4]. - In the beverage sector, Master Kong and Nongfu Spring are noted for their resilience and growth prospects, making them attractive investment options [9][10][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector is expected to experience a "difficult to decline" phase starting in 2026, with a clear bottom and upward potential. The growth will shift from valuation recovery to performance-driven [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of "individual stock improvement" and "structural dividends," suggesting that the sector is currently in a performance bottoming phase, with short-term trading opportunities focused on stocks showing significant performance recovery [8] - The report anticipates that the overall performance of the food and beverage sector will improve in 2026, driven by supply-side adjustments and a gradual recovery in consumer demand [8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Short-term strategy focuses on trading "individual stock improvement" and "turnaround" themes, recommending stocks such as Miaokelando (600882, Buy), Jinshiyuan (603369, Buy), Gujinggongjiu (000596, Buy), and Shede Liquor (600702, Buy) [4] - Structural dividends are expected to continue, with recommendations for Dongpeng Beverage (605499, Buy) and Yanjinpuzi (002847, Buy) [4] - On the demand side, stability or market share themes are highlighted, recommending stocks like Kweichow Moutai (600519, Buy), Shanxi Fenjiu (600809, Buy), Luzhou Laojiao (000568, Buy), Qingdao Beer (600600, Buy), and Yili Group (600887, Buy) [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a transformation driven by health-conscious consumer trends, product innovation, and channel expansion, with companies actively enhancing their product offerings and exploring overseas markets [1][9]. - In the liquor segment, the supply side is undergoing continuous changes to seek growth, while the demand side is gradually recovering, highlighting the absolute investment value in the industry [2][3]. - The beverage sector is focusing on product innovation and network expansion to uncover growth potential, with a strong emphasis on health upgrades and premiumization [4][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor Industry - **Water Well**: The company is optimizing its product matrix and plans to launch a new high-end product in 2025, focusing on brand collaboration and expanding its terminal network [2]. - **Jiu Gui Jiu**: The brand is implementing a strategic focus on brand depth and product line simplification, with expectations for improved sales performance [3]. - **She De Jiu Ye**: The company is maintaining its core strategy while expanding its product offerings, particularly in e-commerce, to drive growth [3]. Beverage Industry - **Kang Shi Fu**: The company is committed to innovation and quality, focusing on expanding its product range to meet diverse consumer needs [4]. - **Unified Enterprises**: The company is experiencing stable performance with a focus on product innovation and market expansion, particularly in the instant noodle and beverage segments [7]. - **Hua Run Beverage**: Short-term performance is under pressure due to competition, but long-term growth prospects remain strong due to the essential nature of its products [7]. Health and Wellness Trends - **Anqi Yeast**: The company is targeting over 10% revenue growth, with a focus on expanding its overseas market presence and maintaining cost advantages [9]. - **Xian Le Health**: The company is advancing its global strategy and product innovation to capture new consumer trends, with a focus on high-margin products [9]. - **Jian Yi Health**: The company is enhancing its probiotic offerings and expanding its product lines to meet evolving consumer demands [10]. Overall Market Trends - The food and beverage industry is witnessing a shift towards healthier products and innovative marketing strategies, with companies adapting to changing consumer preferences and exploring new growth avenues [1][4].

《底部布局，柳暗花明—行业投资策 略》-2025.11.14 《白酒底部布局，兼顾成长型标的— 行业周报》-2025.11.9 《三季报业绩压力增大，白酒报表持 续出清—行业周报》-2025.11.2 消费板块共振上涨，消费行业结构性回暖 ——行业周报 食品饮料 2025 年 11 月 16 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 22% 29% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525080001 核心观点：消费已有企稳迹象，布局机会渐行渐近 11 月 10 日-11 月 14 日，食品饮料指数涨幅为 2.8%，一级子行业排名第 5，跑赢 沪深 300 约 3.9pct，子行业中预加工食品（+6.9%）、烘焙食品（+5.1%）、乳品 （+4.3%）表现相对领先。本周消费板块集体上行，是由于 10 月 CPI 由负转正 引发催化， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Insights - The company reported a total operating revenue of 32.924 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.00% - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 11.405 billion yuan, up 0.48% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 11.411 billion yuan, an increase of 0.53% year-on-year - In Q3 2025, the operating revenue was 8.960 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.05%, but the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 1.38% to 2.899 billion yuan, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items fell by 1.61% to 2.895 billion yuan [2][4][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the revenue from the Fenjiu brand reached 32.171 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.54%, while other liquor categories generated 647 million yuan, a decline of 15.88% - The revenue from the provincial market was 11.005 billion yuan, down 7.52% year-on-year, while the revenue from the provincial market outside Shanxi was 21.813 billion yuan, up 12.72% year-on-year [11] Profitability Metrics - In Q3 2025, the net profit margin decreased by 1.78 percentage points to 32.36%, while the gross profit margin increased by 0.33 percentage points to 74.63% - The expense ratio decreased by 0.89 percentage points to 14.5%, with specific changes in expense categories: sales expense ratio down by 0.37 percentage points, management expense ratio down by 0.56 percentage points, and financial expense ratio up by 0.06 percentage points [11] Future Outlook - The long-term development logic of the company remains solid, with a dual-wheel strategy of "Glass Fen" and "Blue Flower" taking shape - The company is expected to maintain its competitive advantage with the "Glass Fen" flagship product, while the "Blue Flower 20" is gradually establishing its position in the mid-to-high-end market - The forecasted EPS for 2025 and 2026 is 10.09 yuan and 10.93 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20 and 18 times [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting the strategic configuration period for quality companies [3][7]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has shown signs of recovery, with retail sales growth of 2.9% year-on-year in October and a 3.8% increase in restaurant revenue, indicating a rebound from previous declines [3][7]. - Major liquor companies have experienced significant revenue declines, but the market is actively seeking a balance between volume and price, suggesting a potential bottoming out of the market [3][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of patience regarding fundamental performance and notes that individual stock performance will vary during this adjustment phase [3][7]. Summary by Sections Food and Beverage Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector rose by 2.82% last week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.99 percentage points [6]. - Key stocks such as Huanyujia and Sanyuan have shown significant gains, while Dongpeng Beverage and Qianwei Yangchun faced declines [6]. Liquor Sector Analysis - The report indicates that the liquor sector is entering a strategic configuration phase, with expectations of a fundamental turning point in Q3 2026 [8]. - The average price for Moutai is reported at 1655 RMB for loose bottles, with a week-on-week increase of 15 RMB, while the price for Wuliangye remains stable at approximately 830 RMB [8][26]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on sales volume in early 2026, but a stabilization and recovery in prices as inventory clears and demand rebounds [8]. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The performance of consumer goods companies has been mixed, with leading firms like Yili and Qingdao Beer maintaining stable operations, while some companies in the snack and beverage sectors have seen a slowdown in revenue growth [9]. - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend yielding companies and those with sustainable growth potential, particularly in the snack and beverage segments [9]. Valuation Metrics - As of November 14, 2025, the food and beverage sector has a dynamic PE of 20.85x, with a premium rate of 27%, while the liquor sector has a dynamic PE of 19.51x, with a premium rate of 18% [27].