Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, primarily due to falling coal prices, despite stable production and sales volumes [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 38.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.98 billion yuan, down 20.0% year-on-year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 3.94 billion yuan, a decline of 19.4% year-on-year [1] Coal Production and Sales - The company sold 64.14 million tons of commodity coal in Q1 2025, a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year [1] - Self-produced commodity coal sales reached 32.68 million tons, up 1.1% year-on-year [1] - The average selling price of coal was 487 yuan/ton, down 17.0% year-on-year, while the average price for self-produced coal was 492 yuan/ton, down 17.7% year-on-year [1][2] Cost and Profitability - The cost of self-produced commodity coal was 270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.3% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit per ton of self-produced coal was 222 yuan, down 27.6% year-on-year [2] - Overall coal revenue was 31.25 billion yuan, a decline of 16.6% year-on-year, with operating costs at 23.80 billion yuan, down 13.0% year-on-year [2] Chemical Products Performance - The company sold 355,000 tons of olefins in Q1 2025, a decrease of 4.8% year-on-year, with an average price of 6,876 yuan/ton, up 0.4% year-on-year [2] - Urea sales reached 600,000 tons, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year, with an average price of 1,702 yuan/ton, down 23.9% year-on-year [2] - Methanol sales were 529,000 tons, up 33.6% year-on-year, with an average price of 1,794 yuan/ton, up 7.1% year-on-year, leading to a turnaround in profitability [2] New Capacity and Projects - The company is advancing coal, electricity, and new energy projects, including a stable release of production capacity from the Dahuize coal mine and the upcoming launch of a 400,000-ton/year project [3] - The company is also constructing a 900,000-ton/year polyolefin project and accelerating the development of various renewable energy projects [3] Dividend and Profit Forecast - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.258 yuan per share for the end of 2024, with a total dividend payout exceeding 30% [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 162.1 billion yuan, 156.5 billion yuan, and 156.0 billion yuan, respectively, with a forecasted net profit of 15 billion yuan, 14.7 billion yuan, and 14.6 billion yuan [3]

2025 年 04 月 29 日 与传统风格相关性更低，A 股资产配置 新方向：大成中证全指自由现金流 ETF （159235）投资价值分析 ——指数基金产品研究系列报告之二百四十七 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 方思齐 A0230123090003 fangsq@swsresearch.com 联系人 方思齐 (8621)23297818× fangsq@swsresearch.com 益 量 化 研 究 权 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共25页 简单金融 成就梦想 股 票 基 金 证券分析师 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 现金流 ETF 已经成为海外市场热门产品，国内产品申报火热。国内自由现金流产品目前 处于起步阶段，而海外现金流产品已经取得了丰硕的发展成果。其中规模领先的 COWZ 规模已超 200 亿美元。近期国内现金流 ETF 迎来集中申报浪潮， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance showed a decline in revenue and net profit due to falling coal prices, with revenue at 38.392 billion RMB, down 15.43% year-on-year, and net profit at 3.978 billion RMB, down 19.96% year-on-year [1][2] - Despite the decline, the company achieved significant cost reductions, expanded production and sales scale, and improved order structure, indicating resilience in cash flow and dividend sustainability [1][3] - The company plans to maintain its cash dividend policy in 2025, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The coal business generated sales revenue of 31.250 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a decrease of 16.6% year-on-year, with a production volume of 33.35 million tons, up 1.9% year-on-year, and sales volume of 64.14 million tons, up 0.4% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of self-produced coal decreased by 106 RMB/ton (-11.7%) to 492 RMB/ton, contributing to a revenue loss of 3.457 billion RMB, while the increase in sales volume partially offset this decline [2] Cost Management and Client Structure - The unit sales cost of self-produced coal was 269.82 RMB/ton, down 21.15 RMB/ton (-7.3%) year-on-year, driven by reduced material costs and optimized expense management [3] - The company maintains a strong client structure, primarily serving state-owned enterprises, which helps stabilize sales during price downturns [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 15.849 billion RMB, 18.112 billion RMB, and 18.546 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 6.8%, 4.6%, and 2.5% from previous estimates [4] - The target price for A-shares is set at 11.82 RMB, and for H-shares at 9.84 HKD, based on a DDM valuation approach [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company's performance has declined due to falling self-produced coal prices, but it shows potential for high dividends and growth, maintaining a "buy" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 38.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 21.6% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.98 billion yuan, down 20% year-on-year and 15.5% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.4% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 15.7% [1] - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 17.05 billion, 18.47 billion, and 19.07 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -11.8%, +8.3%, and +3.3% respectively [1] Group 2: Coal Business Performance - In Q1 2025, the company produced and sold 33.35 million and 64.14 million tons of commodity coal, representing year-on-year increases of 1.9% and 0.4%, but quarter-on-quarter decreases of 5.4% and 19.1% [2] - The average selling price of coal in Q1 2025 was 487.2 yuan per ton, down 17% year-on-year and 9.8% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The comprehensive cost of coal was 371 yuan per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.4% [2] - The gross profit per ton of coal was 116.2 yuan, down 26.7% year-on-year and 11.2% quarter-on-quarter [2] Group 3: Coal Chemical Business Performance - In Q1 2025, the production of polyolefins, urea, methanol, and ammonium nitrate was 37.8, 52.8, 51.4, and 13.9 million tons, with year-on-year changes of -3.6%, +11.2%, +24.8%, and +6.9% respectively [2] - The selling prices for polyolefins, urea, methanol, and ammonium nitrate were 6,876, 1,702, 1,794, and 1,861 yuan per ton, with year-on-year changes of +0.4%, -23.9%, +7.1%, and -17.3% respectively [2] - The gross profit per ton for polyolefins, urea, methanol, and ammonium nitrate was 1,101, 360, 380, and 386 yuan per ton, with year-on-year changes of +16%, -46.7%, +675.8%, and -47.6% respectively [2] Group 4: Growth Potential and Dividend Policy - The company has two coal mines under construction, with expected production capacities of 4 million tons/year and 2.4 million tons/year, respectively, set to begin trial production by the end of 2025 [3] - The company plans to invest 23.888 billion yuan in a coal deep processing project, with a construction scale of 900,000 tons/year of polyolefins, and has already completed significant investment [3] - The cash dividend amount for 2024 is expected to be 6.35 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 32.87%, indicating potential for increased dividends in the future [3]

Group 1: Market Trends and Investment Opportunities - The report indicates a shift in foreign capital from net outflows to net inflows, with passive allocation foreign capital being the main contributor to this trend [1][2][3] - The construction industry is experiencing weak supply and demand, with a notable decline in real estate transaction volumes, particularly in new homes [2][3] - The FPSO market is expected to see a rise in both volume and price due to improved economic viability in deep-sea oil and gas development, with projected spending reaching $159.4 billion in 2025, a 28% year-on-year increase [7] Group 2: Company Performance and Financial Results - Huazhong Technology reported a total bond scale of 27.3 billion yuan and $700 million, with a focus on off-market repayment due to risk exposure [3] - The report highlights that Weilan Meishi has established a strong brand presence in the spicy snack sector, with a target price of HKD 19.96 based on a 32x PE ratio for 2025 [9] - Xinbao Co. achieved a revenue of 16.82 billion yuan in 2024, a 14.84% increase year-on-year, with a strong performance in Q1 2025 driven by export demand [10] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The energy sector is witnessing increased investment demand for grid upgrades following a large-scale power outage in Spain, Portugal, and southern France, which may benefit companies like Siyi Electric and China West Electric [4] - The report notes that the steel industry is under pressure, with Baosteel's revenue declining by 6.6% in 2024, but the company is expected to benefit from supply-side optimization [22] - The report emphasizes that the semiconductor industry is facing challenges, with Zhuoshengwei's revenue dropping by 36.47% in Q1 2025, but there is potential for recovery with new product launches [20]

Summary of China Coal Energy Q1 2025 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Coal Energy - **Date**: Q1 2025 Earnings Call Key Financial Metrics - **Revenue**: 38.4 billion RMB, down 15.4% YoY [2][5] - **Total Profit**: 6.2 billion RMB, down 28.4% YoY [2][5] - **Net Profit**: 4 billion RMB, down 20% YoY [2][5] - **Coal Sales Volume**: 64.14 million tons, up 0.4% YoY [2][3] - **Average Selling Price of Self-produced Coal**: 492 RMB/ton, down 17.7% YoY [2][3] - **Average Selling Price of Trade Coal**: 486 RMB/ton, down 20.5% YoY [2][3] - **Unit Sales Cost of Self-produced Coal**: 269.82 RMB/ton, down 7.3% YoY [2][4] Operational Highlights - **Production and Sales**: - Self-produced coal sales increased by 1.1% to 32.68 million tons [3] - Trade coal sales increased by 4.9% to 31.20 million tons [3] - Significant decline in import and domestic agency coal sales, down 85.8% [3] - **Cash Flow**: Operating cash flow significantly decreased due to reduced net profit and delayed payments [2][7] Cost Management - **Cost Control Measures**: - Focus on stabilizing production and enhancing efficiency through smart construction and optimized production management [2][9] - Reduction in unit sales cost attributed to decreased stripping and mining activities [4][15] - **Future Cost Outlook**: Company aims to control costs amid rising pressures but cannot guarantee specific reductions due to rigid cost structures [9][15] Chemical Products Performance - **Polyolefins**: Production up 0.4%, unit cost down [2][7] - **Urea**: Production up 11.2%, average price down [2][7] - **Methanol**: Production up 24.8%, average price up [2][7] - **Ammonium Nitrate**: Production up 6.9%, average price down [2][7] Market and Strategic Initiatives - **Market Conditions**: Facing severe market pressures but optimistic about macroeconomic recovery [6][26] - **Long-term Contracts**: Compliance with national requirements, with a focus on optimizing contract volumes [11][13][14] - **Potential Acquisitions**: Evaluating acquisition of quality coal assets from the controlling shareholder [11][12] Shareholder Returns - **Dividend Policy**: Committed to a 35% dividend payout ratio for 2024 and ongoing mid-term dividends [22] Industry Outlook - **Coal Market Dynamics**: Anticipated stable demand for coal as a fundamental energy source in China, with production and consumption levels remaining high [26][35] - **Future Growth Drivers**: Investments in new coal mining projects and chemical production capacity expansion [27][28] Additional Insights - **Safety and Compliance**: Addressing regulatory issues related to overproduction at specific mines [23] - **Inventory Management**: Focus on balancing production and sales to manage inventory levels effectively [33][34] This summary encapsulates the key points from the earnings call, highlighting the financial performance, operational strategies, market conditions, and future outlook for China Coal Energy.

Financial Data and Key Indicators Changes - In Q1 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of RMB 6.2 billion, down 15.4% year on year [7] - Total profit decreased by 28.4% year on year [7] - Net attributable profit was RMB 4 billion, down 20% year on year [7] - Basic earnings per share fell to RMB 3, down 18.9% [7] - Weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 2.58% and debt to asset ratio stood at 44.8% [7] Business Line Data and Key Indicators Changes - Commercial coal production reached 33.35 million tonnes, up 1.9% year on year [3] - Commercial coal sales volume was 64.14 million tonnes, up 0.4% year on year [4] - Self-produced commercial coal sales increased to 32.68 million tonnes, up 1.1% year on year [4] - Polyolefins production decreased by 3.6% to 378,000 tonnes, while sales fell by 4.8% to 55,000 tonnes [5] - Urea production increased by 11.2% to 28,000 tonnes, with sales up 8.9% to 600,000 tonnes [5] - Methanol production rose by 24.8% to 514,000 tonnes, with sales up 33.6% to 529,000 tonnes [5] Market Data and Key Indicators Changes - The average selling price (ASP) of self-produced commercial coal was RMB 4.92 per tonne, down RMB 160 [4] - ASP for proprietary coal trading was RMB 4.86 per tonne, down RMB 125 [4] - Coking coal prices decreased by 6% while thermal coal prices fell by 2% from the end of the previous year [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to strengthen marketing efforts, ensure safe production, and enhance production-sales coordination [9] - Focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement while managing business risks [9] - Plans to explore asset injection or mergers and acquisitions in the future, although no clear plans are currently in place [24] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The macroeconomic landscape shows signs of improvement, with favorable factors gradually emerging [9] - The company is committed to maintaining a clear-headed approach to address challenges in the coal market [9] - Management expressed confidence in coal remaining a primary energy source in China for the foreseeable future [54] Other Important Information - The company reported a net profit decrease due to declining prices of self-produced commercial coal and reduced profits from coal chemical enterprises [8] - The fulfillment rate of long-term contracts was reported to be no less than 90% for Q1 [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: What factors contributed to the reduction in the cost of self-produced commercial coal? - Management indicated that coordinated use of funds and improved production efficiency contributed to cost reduction [11][12] Question: What are the reasons behind the reduction of net operational cash in Q1? - The decrease was attributed to lower net profit, settlement of accounts payables, and depreciation and amortization impacts [13][14] Question: What is the outlook for the GP margin of the coal chemical business? - Management expects the GP margin to remain stable due to the integration of coal and coal chemical operations [35] Question: What is the current status of projects under construction? - The Yulin Coal Chemical Phase II project is on track, with no updates on the timetable [38] Question: What is the company's view on the outlook of the industry? - Management believes coal will continue to be a mainstay energy source in China, with stable demand expected [54][55]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][6][20] Core Views - The company is focusing on cost reduction and increasing production to offset the decline in coal prices, while also enhancing shareholder returns through increased dividend frequency [1][4][18] - The company plans to maintain a mid-term dividend in 2025, with a payout ratio of no less than 30% [3][18] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 38.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.98 billion yuan, down 20.0% [1][9] - The coal business showed stable production and sales, with a total coal production of 33.35 million tons, an increase of 1.9% year-on-year [2][11] - The average selling price for self-produced thermal coal and coking coal was 454 yuan/ton and 922 yuan/ton, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [2][11] Coal Business - The company reported a decrease in gross profit for the coal segment to 7.45 billion yuan, down 26.7 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to the decline in coal prices [2][11] - The unit sales cost for self-produced coal decreased to 269.8 yuan/ton, a reduction of 21.2 yuan/ton year-on-year, attributed to various cost management strategies [2][11] Coal Chemical Business - The coal chemical segment saw an increase in production and sales, with total production and sales of 1.559 million tons and 1.625 million tons, respectively, up 10.6% and 12.1% year-on-year [3][16] - The unit sales costs for major products decreased due to falling coal prices, with reductions of 2.1% to 18.8% across various products [3][16] Profit Forecast and Financial Indicators - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 16.8 billion yuan, 16.9 billion yuan, and 17.7 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to anticipated coal price declines [4][20] - Key financial metrics include a projected net profit margin of 15.2% for 2025 and a return on equity (ROE) of 10.3% [5][21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Coal Energy is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the market coal prices are at a bottoming phase, with stable production and sales growth for the company [1][8] - The company has a robust long-term contract sales model, which provides resilience against market fluctuations [9] - The report forecasts a gradual recovery in coal prices as summer demand increases and supply pressures ease [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 38.392 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.43% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.978 billion yuan, down 19.95% year-on-year [4] - The company's coal sales volume in Q1 2025 was 64.14 million tons, a slight increase of 270,000 tons year-on-year [8] Revenue Breakdown - The total revenue from coal business in Q1 2025 was 31.250 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.6% year-on-year [8] - The average selling price of self-produced coal was 492 yuan/ton, down 17.7% year-on-year [8] - The company’s coal chemical products revenue was approximately 3.725 billion yuan, a decline of 8.76% year-on-year [9] Future Projections - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 18.514 billion yuan, 19.616 billion yuan, and 20.224 billion yuan respectively [9] - The report anticipates a gradual increase in revenue from 184.696 billion yuan in 2025 to 194.618 billion yuan in 2027 [11] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 7.5, 7.1, and 6.8 respectively [11] - The report highlights the company's strong dividend payout potential due to its resilient earnings [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance has declined due to falling self-produced coal prices, but it shows potential for high dividends and growth [1][4] - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 38.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 21.6% [1][4] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 17.05 billion, 18.47 billion, and 19.07 billion yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year change of -11.8%, +8.3%, and +3.3% [1][4] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 3.98 billion yuan, down 20% year-on-year and 15.5% quarter-on-quarter [1][4] - The average selling price of self-produced coal in Q1 2025 was 491.7 yuan per ton, a decrease of 17.7% year-on-year [4] - The comprehensive cost of coal in Q1 2025 was 371 yuan per ton, down 13.4% year-on-year [4] Business Growth Potential - The company has ongoing construction of two coal mines, with expected production capacities of 4 million tons/year and 2.4 million tons/year, respectively [5] - The company plans to enhance its dividend payout, with a total cash dividend of 6.35 billion yuan in 2024, resulting in a dividend ratio of 32.87% [5] - The current dividend yield is 4.6%, indicating strong potential for continued high dividends [5] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.29, 1.39, and 1.44 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 8.1, 7.5, and 7.3 times [1][7] - The company's total market capitalization is 1384.20 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 955.47 billion yuan [1]