Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to maintain an upward trend in December, with short-term fluctuations anticipated, while the Hong Kong market may experience a volatile upward trend influenced by signals from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Economic Policy and Market Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference in December is expected to focus on economic policies for 2026, particularly in areas such as fiscal and monetary policy, expanding domestic demand, stabilizing the real estate market, and "anti-involution" measures [1] - The Federal Reserve's December meeting may result in a combination of "interest rate cuts + hawkish guidance" [1] - A series of industry conferences in December may create investment opportunities, including the "AI+" industry conference on December 1, the brain-computer interface conference on December 4, the 9th International Carbon Materials Conference on December 9, and the 2025 Computing Power Industry High-Quality Development Conference on December 11 [1] - The Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start full island closure operations on December 18, impacting duty-free retail, modern logistics, and trade services [1] Group 2: Investment Themes - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve industry performance, with a weaker dollar potentially boosting commodity prices, suggesting a focus on resource sectors benefiting from rising gold and copper prices [2] - The "going abroad" theme indicates that China's high-end manufacturing sector is likely to continue increasing its global market share, with overseas revenue becoming a key profit growth driver for companies, particularly in wind power equipment and home appliance exports [2] - The high dividend and stable cash flow theme suggests focusing on defensive sectors with favorable dividend rates [3] - The technology innovation and domestic demand recovery theme highlights the semiconductor industry's cyclical recovery and the long-term logic of domestic substitution, with leading companies in specific segments expected to benefit, while consumer services are anticipated to become a new growth point [3] Group 3: Recommended Stocks - The report lists ten recommended stocks, including: - Dajin Heavy Industry (002487.SZ) - China Mobile (600941.SH) - Longking Environmental Protection (600388.SZ) - China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (1209.HK) - Damai Entertainment (1060.HK) - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) - Electric Power Investment Energy (002128.SZ) - Haier Smart Home (600690.SH) - Zhaoyi Innovation (603986.SH) - China Merchants Bank (600036.SH) [4]

Summary of Earnings Estimates for China Commodities Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China commodities** sector, specifically covering various sub-sectors including steel, coal, cement, aluminum, copper, gold, EV metals, paper, and agriculture. Key Points in Earnings Estimates Revisions - **General Update**: Earnings estimates for China commodities have been refreshed to reflect mark-to-market price changes for Q3 2025 and the current quarter. Target price changes range from -5% to +5%, with investment ratings remaining unchanged. The changes are not viewed as material, and the overall investment thesis remains intact [1][2]. Steel Sector - **Baosteel and Maanshan-H/A**: Earnings estimates cut by 3% to 5%. Loss estimates for Angang-H/A increased by 4% for 2025E [9]. Coal Sector - **Shenhua-H/A, Yankuang-H/A, Chinacoal-H/A**: Earnings estimates updated by -3% to +5% for 2025-27E based on recent coal price trends. Chinacoal-H/A target price adjusted to HK$6.5 from HK$6.4, maintaining a Sell rating [9]. Cement Sector - **CNBM, WCC, BBMG-H/A, Conch-H/A, CRBMT**: Earnings estimates updated by -5% to +3% for 2025-27E, reflecting recent unit gross profit trends [9]. Aluminum Sector - **Chalco-H/A and Hongqiao**: Earnings estimates adjusted by -5% to +5% for 2025-27E based on mark-to-market aluminum and alumina prices. Hongqiao target price fine-tuned to HK$20.0 from HK$19.6, maintaining a Neutral rating [9]. Base Metals (Copper and Gold) - **Zijin-H/A, JXC-H/A, CMOC-H/A, MMG, Zhaojin**: Earnings estimates updated by -5% to +5% for 2025-27E to reflect mark-to-market prices of copper and other metals [9]. EV Metals - **Huayou and GEM**: Earnings estimates adjusted by -3% to +5% for 2025-27E based on mark-to-market nickel/cobalt prices and cathode spreads. Huayou's target price fine-tuned to Rmb32.6 from Rmb32.4, maintaining a Sell rating [9]. Paper Sector - **ND Paper and Sun Paper**: Earnings estimates updated by 0% to 2% for 2025-27E to reflect mark-to-market paper prices [10]. Agriculture Sector - **Hog and Feed Coverage**: Earnings estimates revised by -5% to +3% for companies like Wens, New Hope, Haid, and Dabeinong, incorporating mark-to-market hog and feed prices. For animal health and conventional seeds, estimates revised by -5% to -2% [10][13]. Target Price Methodologies and Risks - **Cement Companies**: Target prices based on historical P/B vs. ROE correlations. Key risks include weaker-than-expected construction demand and slower unauthorized cement capacity exit [14]. - **Base Metals**: Target prices based on historical P/B vs. ROE correlations. Key risks include lower commodity prices and operational risks [14]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of considering these estimates as part of a broader investment decision-making process, highlighting potential conflicts of interest due to Goldman Sachs' business relationships with covered companies [3]. This summary encapsulates the key updates and insights from the earnings estimates for the China commodities sector, providing a comprehensive overview of the changes and their implications for investors.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The implementation of self-discipline measures against "involution" in copper smelting is expected to alleviate supply-demand contradictions between the mining and smelting sectors, potentially stabilizing smelting fees [8] - Major copper mines are expected to resume production, with mid-term mining output likely to exceed smelting expansion, creating upward pressure on smelting fees [8] - High demand in downstream sectors is anticipated to boost copper consumption, leading to a scenario where both copper prices and processing fees rise simultaneously [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the recent announcement by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association to control new copper smelting capacity and address unsustainable structural contradictions in the industry [8] - The self-discipline measures include a reduction of over 10% in copper production capacity for 2026 and the establishment of a supervision mechanism to prevent malicious competition [8] Mining Sector - The Grasberg copper mine is set to resume large-scale production in Q1 2026, with expected output growth continuing into 2027, potentially reaching 726,000 tons [8] - The Cobre Panamá mine is also expected to restart, with negotiations ongoing with the Panamanian government [8] Demand and Pricing - The report notes that the global upgrade of power grids and the rise of clean energy and AI data centers are expected to drive copper demand [8] - The anticipated alleviation of structural contradictions between the mining and smelting sectors may lead to a simultaneous increase in copper prices and processing fees [8] Investment Recommendations - For the copper smelting sector, it is recommended to focus on Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630, Buy) and Jiangxi Copper (600362, Not Rated) [8] - In the copper mining sector, attention is drawn to Zijin Mining (601899, Buy) and other companies with significant resource reserves and expansion potential [8]

Core Insights - The report suggests a high probability of an upward breakout in the market, leading to a cross-year rally, particularly due to anticipated positive economic policy adjustments from the upcoming political meetings [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of December as a strategic month for investment, with increased demand for equity funds expected due to the influx of new insurance premiums and favorable currency conditions [2][3] - The report identifies three main investment directions: infrastructure and real estate, service consumption, and self-sufficiency, with a focus on policy-driven adjustments [2][3] Investment Recommendations - The report lists a "golden stock" combination including companies such as Luxshare Precision, Shengyi Technology, Century Huatong, Zhongji Xuchuang, Haiguang Information, China Merchants Bank, Alibaba, Zijin Mining, Xingye Silver Tin, and XGIMI Technology [2][4] - Specific insights into Luxshare Precision highlight its strong position in the Apple supply chain and its potential for robust growth across various sectors, including automotive [8][9] - Shengyi Technology is noted for its leading position in the CCL market, with expectations for continued high-end product upgrades and significant growth potential [12][13] - Century Huatong is recognized for its innovative gaming strategies and strong market position, particularly with its successful game releases [17] - Zhongji Xuchuang is positioned to benefit from increasing overseas demand for optical modules, with a strong production capacity [17] - Haiguang Information is expected to see growth in its DCU chip business due to domestic project implementations [24] - China Merchants Bank is highlighted for its prudent management and strong asset quality, with expectations for recovery in performance as economic conditions improve [24] - Alibaba's cloud business is projected to grow significantly, driven by AI demand and a strong competitive position in the market [24] - Zijin Mining is anticipated to benefit from favorable commodity price trends, particularly in gold and copper [24] - Xingye Silver Tin is positioned as a leading silver producer with significant growth potential [20] - XGIMI Technology is expected to see revenue growth driven by market recovery and product innovation [20] Earnings Forecasts - Companies such as Luxshare Precision, Shengyi Technology, Century Huatong, Zhongji Xuchuang, Haiguang Information, Alibaba, Zijin Mining, Xingye Silver Tin, and XGIMI Technology are projected to achieve over 30% stable growth in earnings this year [5] Financial Metrics - Luxshare Precision is projected to have an EPS of 1.85 in 2024, with a net profit growth rate of 22.03% [6] - Shengyi Technology's EPS is expected to rise from 0.72 in 2024 to 2.03 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 49.37% in 2024 [7] - Century Huatong's EPS is forecasted to increase from 0.16 in 2024 to 1.11 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 131.51% in 2024 [7] - Zhongji Xuchuang is expected to see significant growth in EPS from 4.61 in 2024 to 17.24 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 137.93% in 2024 [7] - Haiguang Information's EPS is projected to grow from 0.83 in 2024 to 2.01 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 52.87% in 2024 [7] - Alibaba's EPS is expected to rise from 3.91 in 2024 to 5.82 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 9.93% in 2024 [7] - Zijin Mining's EPS is forecasted to increase from 1.21 in 2024 to 2.24 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 51.76% in 2024 [7] - Xingye Silver Tin's EPS is projected to grow from 0.86 in 2024 to 1.39 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 57.82% in 2024 [7] - XGIMI Technology's EPS is expected to rise from 1.72 in 2024 to 5.20 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of -0.3% in 2024 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a high prosperity trend driven by rising metal prices due to interest rate cut expectations [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the recent increase in metal prices is primarily influenced by the anticipation of interest rate cuts, which is expected to reshape the monetary credit landscape and increase demand for precious metals like gold and silver [2][3]. - The report suggests that the valuation of precious metals is currently at the lower end of historical averages, indicating potential for continued recovery and growth in this sector [2][3]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 3.56%, and the CSI 300 Index gained 1.64%. The non-ferrous metals index outperformed the CSI 300 by 1.73 percentage points, rising by 3.37% [3]. - Precious metals saw significant weekly gains, with gold prices increasing by 4.77% and silver by 14.95%. Year-to-date, precious metals have risen by 72.35% [9][10]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals experienced price fluctuations, with copper prices increasing by 3.33% and aluminum by 2.46%. The report notes that the prices of lithium and cobalt also saw upward trends [2][14]. - The report provides detailed price changes for various metals, indicating a general upward trend in prices across the board, with specific increases in copper, aluminum, and lithium [14][16]. Inventory Changes - The report indicates a decrease in domestic copper social inventory by 2.1 million tons, while exchange inventories saw a slight increase. This reflects a tightening supply situation for copper [30][15]. - For aluminum, the report notes a reduction in social inventory, with a total of 72.70 million tons, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance in the market [49]. Key Company Valuations - The report lists key companies in the metals sector, providing their stock prices and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts. For instance, Zijin Mining is priced at 28.58 yuan per share with an EPS forecast of 1.93 yuan for 2025 [17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with stable supply-demand dynamics and those with integrated business models, recommending specific stocks for investment [2][17].

Core Viewpoint - Chen Jinghe has been appointed as the lifetime honorary chairman of Zijin Mining Group, marking his official exit after 32 years of leadership, during which the company has grown into a leading global mining enterprise with a market value exceeding $100 billion [1][3][21]. Company Overview - Zijin Mining Group was founded in 1993 and has become one of the top three global metal mining companies, with a market capitalization surpassing $100 billion [1][21]. - The company has a comprehensive technical and management system, corporate culture, and core management team that supports its sustainable development [1][21]. - In 2024, Zijin Mining achieved a net profit of 32.1 billion yuan, and in the first three quarters of 2025, the net profit reached 37.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55% [3][21]. Leadership Transition - Due to age and family reasons, Chen Jinghe will not accept nomination for the ninth board of directors, emphasizing the need for the company to transition from "founder-driven" to "institution-driven" management [3][21]. - The new core management team is deemed mature enough for this transition, making it an opportune time for generational change [3][21]. Strategic Contributions - Chen Jinghe will continue to provide guidance and support in major strategic decisions and resource connections as the honorary chairman and senior advisor [3][21]. - The company has over 30 significant mining bases domestically and internationally, with its overseas resources surpassing domestic ones in terms of reserves, production, and profits [4][5]. Resource Reserves - Zijin Mining controls over 1.1 million tons of copper, 3,973 tons of gold, and 1.788 million tons of equivalent potassium carbonate, making it the Chinese company with the most metal mineral resources [5]. - The company ranks fifth globally in copper reserves, sixth in gold, third in zinc, first in molybdenum, and tenth in lithium [5].

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining Group announced significant changes in its leadership, with founder Chen Jinghe stepping down from the board due to age and family reasons, marking a pivotal transition for the company [1][3][12] Leadership Transition - Chen Jinghe, aged 68, will not accept nomination for the ninth board of directors, despite efforts from the controlling shareholder and board to retain him [3][12] - The company plans to appoint Chen as a lifetime honorary chairman and senior advisor, ensuring his continued involvement in major strategic decisions and resource connections [5][11] Company Performance - Zijin Mining's stock price closed at 28.58 yuan, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 95%, with a total market capitalization of 759.6 billion yuan [1][11] - The company ranks 267th in the Forbes Global 2000 and 364th in the Fortune Global 500, highlighting its significant market presence [11] Production and Resources - Zijin Mining's copper production accounts for 65% of the domestic total, while gold production represents 24% [11] - As of the end of 2024, the company holds substantial proven and inferred resources, including 110.37 million tons of copper and 3,973 tons of gold, with global rankings of second, fifth, and third for copper, gold, and zinc reserves respectively [11]

年报显示，2022~2024年， 陈景河年薪分别为994.48万元，804.92万元和747.52万元。他还持有紫金矿业8510万股股份，按最新收盘价计算，市值超24亿 元。 在他的带领下，紫金矿业从一家总资产仅300多万元、负债超90%的县属小企业，已成长为综合指标进入全球金属矿业企业前3位、市值突破7500亿元的跨 国矿业集团。 紫金矿业三季报显示，当期归母净利润增长55.5%至378.6亿元，其中第三季度净利润达到145.7亿元，再次刷新历史最好成绩。三季报披露后，包括西部 证券在内的机构亦将紫金矿业全年盈利预期上调至510亿元，预计公司今年净利润甚至有望杀入A股上市公司前20。 11月28日晚间，紫金矿业发布公告称，审议通过《关于拟聘任陈景河先生为公司终身荣誉董事长的议案》。该议案尚需进一步提交公司股东会审议。 公告显示，因年龄和家庭原因，紫金矿业现任董事长陈景河提出不再接受公司第九届董事会董事候选人提名。尽管控股股东及董事会极力挽留，陈景河认 为，一个基业长青的企业应从"创始人驱动"迈向"制度驱动"，目前公司新的核心管理团队已经成熟，是实现新老交替的最好时机。 紫金矿业拟聘任陈景河为终身荣誉董事长、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the copper market is expected to experience a supply shortage in 2026 due to ongoing disruptions in mining operations and insufficient capital expenditure (CAPEX) [1][2][3]. - It emphasizes that macroeconomic factors, particularly the interplay between U.S. and China policies, will support a bullish trend in copper prices, with expectations of a price increase driven by demand from sectors like electric grids, new energy vehicles, and AI [3][4][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Review of 2025 - The copper market faced unexpected supply disruptions in 2025, leading to a confirmed shortage for 2026. Major incidents included mining disruptions at Kamoa-Kakula, El Teniente, Grasberg, and Quebrada Blanca, collectively reducing production guidance by 490,000 tons [1][13][19]. 2. Outlook for 2026 2.1 Macroeconomic Factors - 2026 is a pivotal year for U.S.-China relations, with expectations of a more stable trade environment and supportive fiscal policies, which are likely to enhance copper price stability and growth [3][23]. 2.2 Supply Side - The report notes that supply constraints will persist in 2026, with CAPEX needing to rise to incentivize new projects. Current CAPEX levels are significantly lower than historical peaks, indicating a cautious approach from mining companies [3][36][37]. 2.3 Demand Side - Demand for copper is projected to grow, particularly from electric grid investments and the burgeoning AI sector. The report estimates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.7% for copper demand from 2025 to 2029 [4][8]. 3. Supply-Demand Gap from 2025 to 2029 - The report forecasts a widening supply-demand gap for copper, with expected shortages of 470,000 tons in 2025, increasing to 244,000 tons by 2029 if production does not ramp up significantly [4][41]. 4. Key Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and others, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated price increases and improved earnings [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - Chen Jinghe, the lifelong honorary chairman of Zijin Mining Group, has announced his retirement after 32 years of leadership, transitioning the company from a founder-driven model to an institutional-driven one, with a mature core management team in place [1][3][40]. Company Overview - Zijin Mining Group, founded in 1993, has grown into a multinational mining group with a market capitalization exceeding $100 billion, ranking among the top three global metal mining companies [1][3][40]. - The company achieved a net profit of 32.1 billion yuan in 2024 and reported a 55% year-on-year increase in net profit to 37.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [3][4]. Strategic Developments - The company plans to appoint Chen Jinghe as a lifelong honorary chairman and senior advisor, allowing him to continue providing guidance on major strategic decisions and resource connections [3][40]. - The board of directors has approved several resolutions, including amendments to the company's articles of association and governance rules to comply with new regulations [7][10][13][19][23]. Resource and Production Highlights - Zijin Mining operates over 30 significant mining bases across 17 provinces in China and 18 countries globally, with its copper, gold, and zinc production ranking first in China and among the top globally [4]. - The company holds substantial resource reserves, including over 1.1 million tons of copper, 3,973 tons of gold, and 1.788 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, making it the largest holder of metal mineral resources in China [4]. Governance and Management Changes - The board has proposed to eliminate the supervisory board and revise the articles of association to enhance governance in line with new legal requirements [7][19]. - The company is preparing for the election of the ninth board of directors, with nominations for both executive and independent directors already underway [31][36].