Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [5] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that investing in resource stocks is not only about bullish metal prices but also serves as a hedge against rising inflation. The recent surge in metal prices, including gold, silver, copper, and aluminum, is attributed to a significant drop in market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, alongside rising inflation expectations [8][13] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from geopolitical events, with China's electrolytic aluminum industry poised to enjoy valuation premiums due to its supply chain security and competitive advantages. The report highlights the increasing domestic supply of bauxite and alumina, which enhances the industry's resource security [14] - The precious metals sector is viewed positively as the long-term debt cycle enters its late stage, with rising physical prices reflecting a loss of trust in fiat currency systems. The report anticipates that precious metal prices will continue to reach historical highs in 2026 [15] - The copper sector faces supply chain vulnerabilities, with recent labor disputes leading to production cuts. The report suggests that the basic fundamentals support the equity side of copper investments, which are expected to rise alongside copper prices [16] Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The report indicates that the recent collective rise in metal prices is a response to inflationary pressures and a re-evaluation of physical asset values as the dollar debt cycle matures [8][13] - The aluminum sector is highlighted for its strong supply chain capabilities, with domestic production of bauxite and alumina expected to increase, providing a competitive edge [14] - The precious metals market is projected to see continued price increases, driven by a shift in investor sentiment towards physical assets as a safeguard against debt risks [15] Steel Industry - The steel industry is currently experiencing a weak fundamental outlook as it approaches the year-end off-season, with a slight increase in iron and steel production but a decrease in demand [17][22] - Inventory levels for both social and steel mill stocks have increased, indicating a potential oversupply situation [24] - Steel prices have shown a slight overall increase, with specific products like hot-rolled steel experiencing marginal price rises [36][37] New Energy Metals - The report notes a significant year-on-year increase in lithium carbonate production, with December 2025 figures showing a 69.09% rise [40] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains strong, with production and sales figures for November 2025 reflecting substantial growth [44] - Prices for lithium and cobalt have risen sharply, indicating a robust market for new energy metals [49][50]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend in the first trading week of 2026, with significant gains in major indices and individual stocks, indicating a positive start to the year [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The major A-share indices continued their upward trend from the end of 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.82%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.40%, and the ChiNext Index and STAR Market 50 Index by 3.89% and 9.80%, respectively [2]. - The "Everyday Brand 100 Index" achieved a weekly increase of 1.26%, closing at 1159.90 points [2]. - Over 10 constituent stocks saw weekly gains exceeding 5%, with notable performances from China Life, Zijin Mining, and Guizhou Moutai, each increasing their market value by over 50 billion yuan [1][2]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The insurance, real estate, and non-ferrous metal sectors experienced strong rebounds, with China Pacific Insurance and China Life Insurance seeing weekly increases of 10.95% and 9.94%, respectively [2]. - The performance of Zijin Mining was particularly noteworthy, with its stock price reaching a new high and a total market value nearing 1 trillion yuan [4]. Group 3: Company Insights - Zijin Mining's market value reached 989.7 billion yuan as of January 9, 2026, with a projected net profit for 2025 estimated between 51 billion and 52 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 59% to 62% [4]. - The company plans to produce 105 tons of gold, 1.2 million tons of copper, and 520 tons of silver in 2026, indicating a significant increase in production capacity [4]. - Zijin Mining is actively expanding its resource portfolio through acquisitions, including overseas gold mines in Ghana and Kazakhstan, as well as domestic acquisitions [4]. Group 4: Management Changes - Following the profit forecast announcement, Zijin Mining appointed a new chairman, Zou Laichang, and a new president, Lin Hongfu, marking a transition in leadership aimed at shifting from a founder-driven to a mechanism-driven management model [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Northbound Stock Connect funds have shown increased trading activity in the A-share market, with significant holdings and trading volumes reported for the fourth quarter of 2025 [2][10]. Group 1: Northbound Stock Connect Holdings - As of the end of Q4 2025, Northbound Stock Connect funds held a total of 4,014 securities, including stocks and ETFs, with overall holdings remaining relatively stable [4][5]. - Notably, Northbound funds held over 1 billion shares in 213 stocks, and in 37 stocks, holdings exceeded 5 billion shares. Key stocks with holdings over 10 billion shares include BOE Technology Group, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Zijin Mining, Agricultural Bank of China, and others [5][6]. Group 2: Increased Holdings - During Q4 2025, Northbound Stock Connect funds increased their holdings in over 1,600 stocks, with more than 1,000 stocks seeing an increase of over 1 million shares. Significant increases were noted in stocks such as China Aluminum, Weichai Power, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, with increases exceeding 10 million shares in several cases [7][8]. Group 3: Trading Activity - The trading activity of Northbound Stock Connect has been notably active, with trading volumes exceeding 300 billion yuan for four consecutive trading days, reaching a peak of 369.6 billion yuan on January 9, 2026, marking the highest level since September 2025 [10]. - Cumulatively, since the establishment of the mutual market access mechanism, the total trading volume of Northbound Stock Connect has surpassed 200 trillion yuan, with 2025's total trading volume reaching 50.33 trillion yuan, a growth of over 40% compared to 2024 [11].

Group 1 - The global mining landscape is characterized by a "dual" scenario, with Chinese mining showcasing record performance and strategic resource discoveries, while the international market faces supply chain restructuring and policy changes in resource-rich countries [1] Group 2 - China's mining sector has delivered significant results, highlighting a clear development path through three key aspects: record performance, resource discoveries, and ecological governance [3] - Zijin Mining reported a record annual revenue of 293.4 billion yuan and a net profit of 21.119 billion yuan, marking its best performance since listing, driven by global operations and major projects in Congo, Tibet, and Serbia [4] - A strategic breakthrough in geological exploration was announced, revealing a copper resource of 41.72 million tons in the upper reaches of the Jinsha River, enhancing China's resource security during the energy transition [5] - The National Mine Safety Supervision Bureau reported the completion of 91,332 abandoned mine closures in 2023, focusing on ecological restoration and safety governance in traditional mining provinces [6] Group 3 - The international mining focus is on the intense competition for resource control, with the U.S. Department of Defense providing $120 million to Lynas Corporation for a rare earth separation plant in the U.S., indicating a move towards "de-China" mineral supply chains [8] - Codelco's copper production increased by 9.9% year-on-year to 395,000 tons, while the Las Bambas copper mine in Peru received mining permits to boost annual production to 350,000 tons [9] Group 4 - The commodity market is experiencing structural differentiation, with copper prices stabilizing between $9,850 and $10,150 per ton, driven by Chinese demand and global monetary policy [11] - Gold prices reached a historical peak of $2,372 per ounce, supported by central bank purchases and geopolitical risks, while lithium prices remain stable between 110,000 and 113,000 yuan per ton [12]

Core Insights - The data for Northbound capital holdings in the Chinese stock market for Q4 2025 shows a clear picture of foreign investment trends, indicating a sustained positive outlook from foreign investors towards Chinese equities [1][3]. Group 1: Northbound Capital Holdings - As of the end of Q4 2025, Northbound funds held a total of 3,257 stocks, with a combined holding of approximately 1,077.09 billion shares and a total market value of about 2.59 trillion yuan, reflecting an increase of 1,476.05 million shares from Q3 2025 [3]. - Compared to the end of 2024, Northbound capital's total market value increased by approximately 380 billion yuan, with a gradual upward trend in holdings throughout 2025 [3]. - In December 2025, foreign capital inflow into Chinese stocks accelerated to 3.5 billion USD, up from 2.3 billion USD in November, marking a significant turnaround from a net outflow of 26 billion USD in 2024 [3]. Group 2: Major Holdings and Sector Preferences - The top holding for Northbound funds as of Q4 2025 was Ningde Times, with a market value of 254.34 billion yuan, significantly higher than the second-largest holding, Midea Group, at 77.05 billion yuan [4]. - Other notable holdings included Kweichow Moutai, China Merchants Bank, and Zijin Mining, with a noticeable shift in the top ten holdings compared to the end of 2024, as some stocks like BYD and Mindray Medical dropped out of the list [4]. - In terms of sector distribution, the top three sectors for Northbound capital were power equipment, electronics, and non-ferrous metals, indicating a shift from the previous year's focus on power equipment, banking, and food and beverage [5]. Group 3: Net Buying and Selling Trends - Ningde Times led the net buying list with an inflow of 45.63 billion yuan, followed by Northbound Huachuang and BYD with 24.89 billion yuan and 13.03 billion yuan, respectively [6]. - Conversely, Kweichow Moutai, Changjiang Electric, and Agricultural Bank were the top three stocks for net selling, with outflows of 32.30 billion yuan, 16.21 billion yuan, and 12.27 billion yuan, respectively [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, institutions generally expect foreign capital holdings in Chinese stocks to further increase, with Goldman Sachs estimating potential buying funds could reach 10 billion USD, indicating a positive outlook for the Chinese stock market [7].

Core Viewpoint - The copper industry is experiencing significant growth in 2025, driven by rising copper prices, an increase in high-value product ratios, and expansion into overseas markets, leading to impressive financial results for listed companies in the sector [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Zijin Mining, as a leading player in the industry, expects a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62% [3] - The increase in Zijin Mining's profit is attributed to a rise in production and sales prices of key mineral products, with gold production expected to reach approximately 90 tons, copper production around 1.09 million tons, and silver production about 437 tons in 2025 [3] - Other copper companies are also reporting strong performance, with 15 out of 16 listed companies achieving profitability in the first three quarters of 2025, and 14 companies reporting year-on-year net profit growth, with some like Chuanjiang New Material and Jintian Co. achieving profit doubling [4] Group 2: Market Trends - The overall performance of copper companies is improving due to sustained market demand and rising copper prices, prompting companies to expand their copper-related production capacities [4] - For instance, Xibu Mining's subsidiary, Yulong Copper, anticipates a copper concentrate output of 151,000 tons for the entire year of 2025, with future capacity expected to reach 180,000 to 200,000 tons per year after the completion of its third-phase project [4] - Experts believe that copper prices are likely to remain stable or continue to rise, providing ongoing profit opportunities for copper companies, especially with the growing demand from emerging industries such as renewable energy and electronic information [4]

Core Viewpoint - The copper industry is experiencing significant performance improvements due to rising copper prices, an increase in high-value product ratios, and expansion into overseas markets, with many listed companies reporting substantial profit growth for 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Improvement - In 2025, 15 out of 16 listed copper companies reported profits in the first three quarters, with 14 companies showing year-on-year net profit growth, and some, like Chujiang New Materials and Jintian Copper, achieving profit increases of over 100% [1][2]. - Zijin Mining expects a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62%, driven by increased production and higher sales prices of key mineral products [1]. - Chujiang New Materials reported a revenue of 44.19 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.29%, with net profit soaring by 20.89 times [2]. Group 2: Production Capacity Expansion - Companies are gradually expanding copper-related production capacity in response to increasing market demand and rising copper prices, with Yulong Copper's expected copper concentrate production for 2025 set at 151,000 tons [2]. - Zijin Mining plans to increase its production of key minerals in 2026, targeting 120,000 tons of copper and 105 tons of gold [1]. Group 3: Overseas Business Development - Companies like Hailiang and Jintian are actively pursuing international market expansion, with Hailiang being a pioneer in overseas operations within the copper processing industry, establishing a global network of 23 production bases [4]. - Jintian Copper emphasizes its international strategy, overcoming challenges posed by the uncertain international trade environment, and aims to optimize its global product and customer structure [4][5]. - The copper products from Jintian are widely used in various sectors, including new energy vehicles, clean energy, and telecommunications, showcasing the company's robust market position and global industrial layout [4][5].

Group 1 - As of the end of Q4 2025, northbound funds held a total of 3,257 stocks, with a total holding amount of approximately 1,077.09 billion shares and a total market value of about 2.59 trillion yuan, showing an increase from the previous quarter [1] - The top holdings of northbound funds include leading stocks such as CATL, Midea Group, Kweichow Moutai, and China Merchants Bank, with CATL's market value held by northbound funds reaching 254.34 billion yuan, significantly higher than Midea Group's 77.05 billion yuan [2] - The three major sectors heavily invested by northbound funds are power equipment, electronics, and non-ferrous metals, marking a shift from the previous year's focus on power equipment, banking, and food and beverage [2] Group 2 - In Q4 2025, the sectors with the largest increase in market value for northbound funds were non-ferrous metals, communications, and basic chemicals, with notable individual stocks including Zijin Mining and China Aluminum [3] - The estimated net purchases by northbound funds for CATL reached 45.63 billion yuan, making it the top stock, followed by Northern Huachuang and BYD with net purchases of 24.89 billion yuan and 13.03 billion yuan respectively [3] - Looking ahead to 2026, foreign investment in Chinese stocks is expected to increase, with potential buying funds estimated to reach 10 billion dollars, driven by global long-term investors seeking diversification [4]

Group 1: Gold Price Surge - International gold prices have surged due to global economic turmoil and increased geopolitical risks, with spot gold surpassing 1000 yuan per gram and domestic gold jewelry prices exceeding 1370 yuan [3][5] - Industry insiders have noted unprecedented price volatility, with daily fluctuations in gold prices being observed [3] Group 2: Chen Jinghe's Retirement - Chen Jinghe, known as "China's King of Gold," announced his retirement after 44 years in the mining industry, leading Zijin Mining from a small county-level mine to one of the top three metal mining companies globally [5][6] - His retirement coincides with a peak in gold prices, leading to speculation about his timing and success [5] Group 3: Zijin Mining's Growth - Zijinshan Gold Mine, under Chen Jinghe's leadership, has achieved multiple national records, including the highest gold production and resource availability in China [6][8] - The mine was nearly sold to foreign investors in the past, but Chen's efforts preserved it for domestic development [6][8] Group 4: Chen Jinghe's Leadership and Strategy - Chen Jinghe faced significant challenges in the early days, including low gold reserves and high extraction costs, but he successfully increased the mine's gold reserves from 5.45 tons to approximately 50 tons [9][24] - He rejected lucrative offers from foreign companies, advocating for domestic control over the mine, which ultimately led to a significant increase in profits for Zijin Mining [11][15] Group 5: Expansion and Acquisitions - Under Chen's leadership, Zijin Mining transitioned from a state-owned enterprise to a publicly traded company, expanding aggressively through acquisitions, including major international mining assets [32][33] - The company has successfully acquired significant resources, including gold and copper, positioning itself as a leading player in the global mining industry [41][43] Group 6: Future Prospects - Chen Jinghe has recognized the importance of diversifying into new energy minerals, such as lithium, and has made strategic acquisitions in this area [39][41] - As of the end of 2024, Zijin Mining is projected to hold substantial resources, including 3973 tons of gold and over 1.1 billion tons of copper, solidifying its status as a major global mining entity [41][43]

Group 1 - The core transaction on January 9 involved a block trade of 370,800 shares of Zijin Mining, amounting to 13.80 million yuan, with a transaction price of 37.22 yuan per share [1] - The buyer was CITIC Securities Co., Ltd. Beijing Branch, while the seller was UBS Securities Co., Ltd. Shanghai Huayuan Shiqiao Road Securities Branch [1] - Over the past three months, Zijin Mining has recorded a total of 21 block trades, with a cumulative transaction value of 1.48 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - On January 9, Zijin Mining closed at 37.22 yuan, reflecting a 2.53% increase, with a daily turnover rate of 1.36% and a total transaction amount of 10.41 billion yuan [1] - The net inflow of main funds for the day was 551 million yuan, and the stock has risen by 7.98% over the past five days, with a total net inflow of 722 million yuan [1] - The latest margin financing balance for Zijin Mining is 8.78 billion yuan, which has increased by 608 million yuan over the past five days, representing a growth rate of 7.44% [1]