Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's report indicates a preference order for the materials sector in 2026: Copper/Gold > Aluminum > Lithium > Coal > Steel [1] - The MSCI China Materials Index is expected to outperform the MSCI China Index this year due to supply disruptions or tight supply and further M&A activities [1] - Zijin Mining (601899)(02899) remains Morgan Stanley's top pick for the year, with continued optimism for Luoyang Molybdenum (603993)(03993), China Aluminum (601600)(02600), and China Hongqiao (01378) [1] Group 2 - Based on a positive outlook for copper, Jiangxi Copper (600362)(00358) rating is upgraded to Neutral [1] - Chinese policies are seen as the main driver of commodity prices, but the execution and intensity of anti-involution policies post-Q4 2025 are expected to be milder than anticipated [1] - The effort to reduce excess capacity in the steel sector is a long-term endeavor, and without significant production cuts, steel profit margins are expected to remain low [1] Group 3 - Baosteel (600019)(600019.SH) rating is downgraded to Neutral, while Ansteel (000898)(00347) is downgraded to Underweight [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Views - The lithium sector is expected to experience a surge in demand due to a decline in export tax rebates, leading to a wave of pre-purchases. The Ministry of Finance announced that the export tax rebate for lithium products will decrease from 9% to 6% on April 1, 2026, and to 0% on January 1, 2027. This is projected to increase lithium carbonate demand by approximately 40,000 to 50,000 tons, significantly tightening supply [11][12] - The gold market is influenced by geopolitical risks in the Americas and a recent downward revision of U.S. non-farm payrolls. Despite a decrease in non-farm employment growth, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.4%. The gold price is expected to remain strong in the short term due to these factors [12][13] - Copper prices have seen a correction, which has improved demand. The current market conditions suggest that copper prices may rise beyond expectations, and investors are encouraged to actively position themselves in copper mining stocks [13][14] Summary by Sections Lithium - Weekly inventory has shifted to an accumulation of 337 tons, indicating a turning point. Market perception is that demand will recover post-maintenance of positive electrode manufacturers [11] - The decline in export tax rebates is expected to lead to a pre-purchase wave, with demand for lithium carbonate significantly increasing [11] - The lithium mining sector is anticipated to benefit from both profit and valuation increases, with a focus on companies like Guocheng Mining and others [11] Gold - U.S. non-farm payrolls were revised down, with a growth of only 50,000 jobs in December, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% [12] - Geopolitical risks are accumulating, particularly in Venezuela and other parts of the Americas, which may support gold prices in the short term [12] - The long-term outlook for gold remains bullish due to currency depreciation and geopolitical fragmentation [12] Copper - After a price correction, demand for copper has improved, with expectations of increased production rates in the coming weeks [13] - The market is characterized by a favorable sentiment, and investors are advised to take advantage of price corrections to invest in copper mining stocks [13] - The outlook for copper prices suggests potential upward movement beyond current expectations, with adjustments in earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios anticipated [13]

Core Insights - The latest "Top 500 Chinese Listed Companies by Market Value" list for 2025 highlights the dominance of leading enterprises in finance, energy, technology, consumption, and intelligent manufacturing, with companies like Tencent and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China showcasing trillion-level market values [2][5][17] - The presence of companies such as Industrial Fulian, SMIC, and BYD in the 11th to 30th rankings reflects the deep transformation of China's economic structure, indicating these firms are both stabilizers and leaders in industrial upgrades [2][5][24] Market Value Rankings - The top ten companies by market value include Tencent (49400 billion), ICBC (26311 billion), Agricultural Bank of China (26123 billion), Alibaba (24621 billion), and others, collectively representing a significant portion of the market [17][19] - The total market value of the top ten companies reaches 181.5 trillion, emphasizing the concentration of market power among these leading firms [17][19] Industry Distribution - The companies ranked 11th to 20th span key sectors such as intelligent manufacturing, finance, e-commerce, energy, technology, and new energy vehicles, with a combined market value of 91645 billion [7][24] - The average market value of the top 500 companies is 1856 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 373 billion, with information technology, finance, and consumer discretionary sectors leading in market share [10][27] Economic Transformation - The high market values of these companies signify a shift from extensive growth to intensive growth in China's economy, driven by national policies like "Made in China 2025" and the new energy strategy [9][26] - Analysts suggest that the emergence of high-value companies is due to their alignment with economic transformation directions and their potential for future growth, leading to higher valuation premiums from the capital market [9][26] Corporate Strategies - Companies are focusing on core business upgrades and exploring new growth avenues, with Xiaomi targeting 550,000 vehicle deliveries by 2026 and BYD investing in solid-state and hydrogen fuel cell technologies [11][28] - Financial institutions like China Ping An and China Merchants Bank are enhancing their digital transformation and wealth management capabilities, while Pinduoduo is investing in agricultural technology and expanding its global market presence [11][28] Investment Trends - The performance of the 11th to 20th ranked companies reinforces a value investment orientation, guiding capital towards high-quality enterprises and core sectors [12][28] - The capital market is expected to support the long-term matching of value and market capitalization for these quality enterprises, promoting a positive cycle of corporate development and investor returns [12][28]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the gold industry is experiencing a strong upward trend due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic factors, leading to increased gold prices and a positive outlook for gold-related stocks and ETFs [1] - The China Securities Index for gold industry stocks (931238) rose by 1.09%, with notable increases in individual stocks such as Mingpai Jewelry (up 10.05%) and Hunan Silver (up 5.19%) [1] - International spot gold prices have historically surpassed $4600 per ounce, prompting domestic gold prices to follow suit, with local gold jewelry prices reported between 1420-1430 yuan per gram [1] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Index for gold industry stocks account for 63.58% of the index, with major companies including Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [2] - The macroeconomic environment, particularly weak U.S. non-farm payroll data, is reinforcing market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026, which could support the upward movement of precious metals [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up by 0.55%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.88%, with notable gains in tech stocks like Meituan and Baidu, both increasing over 2% [1] - Lithium stocks showed strong performance, with Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium both rising over 4%, while the precious metals sector also strengthened, with Zijin Mining up nearly 3% and China Aluminum increasing over 2% [1] - Citic Securities anticipates a second round of valuation recovery and performance resurgence in the Hong Kong stock market by 2026, driven by internal "15th Five-Year Plan" catalysts and external economic stimulus [1] Group 2 - Zheshang International views the fundamentals of the Hong Kong stock market as still weak, with a slight decline in the funding environment, but maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for the mid-term market trends [2] - The firm highlights sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, including new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI technology, as well as low-valuation state-owned enterprises [2] - The expected performance of the Hong Kong stock market in spring 2026 is projected to be driven by "AI applications, PPI improvement, and expanded domestic demand," with a recommendation to focus on quality stocks in these areas [2]

点击小程序查看报告原文 1月进入年报业绩预报和快报的披露高峰期。 12月中下旬以来A股市场单边上行，近期再创十年新高，交投情绪明显改善。随着A股上市公司年报业绩预 报在1月集中披露，我们认为业绩出现改善或超预期的行业和个股可能成为投资者关注的主线。截至1月10日，A股已披露年报预告的公司数量约占1.8%， 我们结合中金行业分析员自下而上预测，梳理年报业绩预览供投资者参考： 2025年全年A股盈利同比有望结束此前四年的增速连降，转为正增长。 从2025年四季度宏观数据来看，内需方面，四季度社零增速延续放缓，1-11月社零 总额同比+4.0%（vs.前三季度4.5%），以旧换新政策影响退坡；房地产量价走弱，房企投资仍偏谨慎；物价层面，4Q25物价水平边际改善，CPI同比由三 季度的-0.2%转正至0.6%，PPI同比降幅收窄至-2.1%；外需方面，10-11月人民币计价的出口金额同比分别为-0.8%/5.7%，2024年高基数为主要扰动，需求 侧整体平稳。考虑到2024年四季度非金融盈利因减值造成的低基数，我们预计单四季度盈利同比有望出现改善。2025年前三季度全部A股/金融/非金融盈 利增速分别为5.4%/9. ...

Group 1: Government Policies - The State Council has announced the establishment of a special guarantee plan for private investment, aiming to lower financing thresholds and costs for enterprises [1][9] - Measures include interest subsidies for loans to small and micro enterprises and a risk-sharing mechanism for corporate bonds, which are intended to enhance consumer capacity and expand quality service supply [1][9] Group 2: Corporate Developments - Liu Peng, the chairman of paper giant Zhongshun Jierou, has resigned, raising concerns about potential changes in corporate governance strategies [1][10] - The company, which saw revenue approach 10 billion, has faced pressure in recent years, and the effectiveness of its diversification strategy remains uncertain [1][10] Group 3: Energy Pricing - New energy pricing results have been released across over 20 provinces, showing significant regional disparities, with Shanghai's photovoltaic electricity price at 0.4155 yuan per kWh, approximately 85% higher than Shandong [1][11] - The differences in electricity prices are attributed to resource endowments, consumption capacity, and policy objectives, leading companies to adjust investment strategies towards refined management and load center project development [1][11] Group 4: Market Performance - The "Everyday Brand 100 Index" rose by 1.26% in the first trading week of 2026, with significant market capitalization growth observed in companies like China Life, Zijin Mining, and Kweichow Moutai, each increasing by over 50 billion yuan [2][12] - Zijin Mining's stock price reached a new high, with its market value briefly surpassing 1 trillion yuan, driven by performance expectations and resource expansion [2][12] Group 5: Economic Trends - Vietnam's GDP growth is projected to reach 8.02% in 2025, potentially surpassing Thailand to become the third-largest economy in Southeast Asia by 2026 [4][14] - The commercial aerospace industry in China is expected to exceed 7.8 trillion yuan, with over 20 provinces implementing supportive policies, indicating a significant shift towards large-scale deployment [4][14] Group 6: Financial Sector Changes - By 2025, the brokerage settlement model is expected to become the mainstream for newly issued funds, surpassing 50% market share, driven by regulatory changes [5][15] - Small and medium-sized fund companies are adopting multi-brokerage strategies to expand sales, while smaller brokerages focus on niche markets to enhance their business scale and industry influence [5][15] Group 7: Inflation and Price Movements - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, marking the highest level since March 2023, with core CPI remaining above 1% for four consecutive months [6][16] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed, indicating some recovery in certain sectors [6][16] Group 8: Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices have experienced significant volatility due to geopolitical risks and debt issues in developed economies, driving demand for safe-haven assets [7][17] - Analysts suggest that while gold prices may have room to rise, silver is expected to exhibit greater volatility due to a lack of central bank reserves [7][17]

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for non-ferrous metals remains optimistic for 2026, with expectations of continued price increases driven by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics, despite concerns about high valuations and potential risks in the market [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong performance, with the China Nonferrous Metals Index rising over 8% since the beginning of the year, reaching a historical high of 3369 points on January 9 [1]. - In 2025, the China Nonferrous Metals Index recorded a cumulative increase of 91.67%, with leading stocks like Luoyang Molybdenum and Jiangxi Copper seeing price increases of 200.7% and 166% respectively [2]. - The futures market also reflected this trend, with LME copper futures prices increasing by over 40% in 2025, and LME tin and aluminum rising by 39% and 17% respectively [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that the demand for metals such as copper and aluminum will continue to rise due to increased global electricity construction and investment in power infrastructure, which is expected to outpace GDP growth [2][6]. - The electric aluminum sector is anticipated to mirror the coal market's performance from 2022 to 2024, with limited supply and high dividend yields making it attractive for value investors [3]. - The ongoing macroeconomic environment, including potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is expected to create a favorable backdrop for both precious and non-ferrous metals [6]. Group 3: Institutional Activity and Caution - There has been a surge in public fund applications for non-ferrous metal-themed ETFs, indicating strong institutional interest in the sector [4]. - Despite the positive sentiment, there is a growing caution among market participants regarding high valuations, with the price-to-book ratio of the non-ferrous sector rising from 2 to approximately 3.5 [6]. - Analysts recommend a balanced approach, advising against blindly chasing high valuations while recognizing the ongoing demand and investment opportunities in the sector [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper industry [6] Core Views - The copper market is expected to remain tight in 2026, supporting upward price movement. As of January 9, 2026, the SHFE copper closing price was 101,410 CNY/ton, up 3.23% from January 2, and the LME copper closing price was 12,998 USD/ton, up 4.31% from January 2 [1] - The report highlights that the TC spot price has reached a historical low, indicating ongoing tightness in copper concentrate procurement [3] - Despite a rise in domestic social inventory, the overall supply-demand dynamics are still expected to favor higher copper prices in the future [1][2] Supply and Demand Summary - **Supply**: - The TC spot price is at -45.1 USD/ton, a historical low [3] - Domestic copper concentrate production in October 2025 was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and down 12.1% year-on-year [2] - The domestic port copper concentrate inventory as of January 9, 2026, was 640,000 tons, down 0.8% from the previous week [2] - **Demand**: - The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw a weekly operating rate of 56.58%, down 2.37 percentage points [3] - The air conditioning sector, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, is projected to have production changes of +11%, -11.4%, and -2.4% for January to March 2026 [3] Inventory Summary - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 14.6% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 2.5% [2] - As of January 9, 2026, global copper inventory across the three major exchanges totaled 838,000 tons, up 6.2% from December 31, 2025 [2] Futures Market Summary - The SHFE copper active contract position decreased by 12.8% week-on-week, with a total position of 189,000 lots as of January 9, 2026 [4] - The COMEX non-commercial net long position was 58,000 lots, down 3.3% week-on-week [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Liquidity expectations are strengthening, and the expansion trend is expected to continue. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will halt interest rate cuts from January to April, leading to a temporary stabilization in the financial attributes. The upcoming Supreme Court ruling on the Trump tariff case may significantly increase price volatility. With supportive policies both domestically and internationally, the bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged, and the expansion trend is likely to persist [3][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment: Strengthening Liquidity Expectations, Continued Expansion Trend - The U.S. unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, with non-farm employment increasing by 50,000, below the market expectation of 73,000. This indicates a new equilibrium in the labor market, with both supply and demand growth slowing [12]. 2. Industry and Individual Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 8.56% in the week ending January 9, ranking fourth among all industries [19]. The sector's performance outpaced major indices, with small metals showing the highest gains [20]. 3. Macro Data Tracking - The report highlights various macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. CPI and PPI, as well as China's manufacturing PMI, which stood at 50.1% in December, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing sector [30][34]. 4. Precious Metals: Increased Volatility Expected Ahead of Tariff Ruling - Gold prices increased, with SHFE gold rising by 2.96% to 1,006.48 CNY per gram and COMEX gold up by 3.59% to 4,473.00 USD per ounce. Silver also saw significant gains, with SHFE silver up by 9.70% to 18,731.00 CNY per kilogram [13][14][27]. 5. Copper: Continued Weakness, Increased Volatility from Tariff Disruptions - Copper prices rose, with SHFE copper increasing by 3.23% to 101,410 CNY per ton and LME copper up by 4.24% to 12,998 USD per ton. Supply tightness continues to affect the market, with copper concentrate treatment charges declining [16][26]. 6. Aluminum: Price Improvement, Export Competition May Increase Mismatch - Aluminum prices increased, with SHFE aluminum rising by 6.13% to 24,330 CNY per ton. The report notes a slight increase in domestic aluminum inventory and stable production capacity [15][78].