Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Zinc Weekly Report - Narrow Range Fluctuation [1] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Research Team [2] - Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The zinc price will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range, with the short - term contradiction being the stronger external and weaker domestic zinc prices [3] Group 2: Market Performance 2.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract is 22,275 yuan/ton, down 0.91%; LME zinc is 2,818 dollars/ton, down 0.39% [5] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract is 107,792, and the open interest is 88,665 [5] 2.2 Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The price of 0 zinc ingot is 22,200 yuan/ton, down 1.11%; 1 zinc ingot is 22,130 yuan/ton, down 1.12% [12] - **Premium and Discount**: Shanghai (10 - month/15 - month) premium is - 35 yuan/ton; Shanghai (spot/main) premium is 220 yuan/ton [12] Group 3: Industry Situation 3.1 Supply - **Supply Side**: The supply side remained stable this week and was better than last year. The zinc ore supply was still in a state of slight surplus [3] - **Mine End**: Although there were many imports, domestic mines had price advantages [3] - **Smelting End**: The smelter's operating rate remained strong, the willingness to resume production was strong, TC increased steadily, and profit repair was stable [3] 3.2 Demand - Affected by the military parade, the downstream operating rate decreased slightly [3] 3.3 Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: The seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 132,900 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons (- 1.85%); zinc concentrate port inventory was 217,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons (1.88%) [26] - **LME Inventory**: LME zinc inventory decreased to 68,075 tons, a decrease of 8,250 tons (- 10.81%); registered warrants decreased continuously [26] Group 4: Advanced Data - **Zinc Import Profit and Loss**: - 1,675.88 yuan/ton, an increase of 349.65 yuan/ton [22] - **Import Zinc Concentrate TC**: 45 dollars/dry ton, unchanged [22] - **Domestic Zinc Concentrate TC**: 3,900 yuan/metal ton, unchanged [22] - **Zinc SHFE - LME Ratio**: 7.9045, a decrease of 0.1402 [22] Group 5: Production and Consumption 5.1 Production - **Zinc Concentrate Capacity Utilization (July 2025)**: The total annual capacity was 7.70844 million tons, the capacity utilization rate was 98.07%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.74% and a year - on - year increase of 0.18% [35] - **Zinc Output (July 2025)**: Refined zinc output was 555,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.62%; zinc concentrate output was 319,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.76% [35] 5.2 Consumption - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rate of galvanizing was 57.42%, a decrease of 1.12%; zinc oxide was 55.89%, a decrease of 1.06%; die - casting zinc alloy was 50.46%, an increase of 2.85% [51] Group 6: Import and Export 6.1 Zinc Concentrate Import - **July 2025**: The import volume was 501,425 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.58%; the cumulative import volume was 3,035,364 tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.20% [37] - **Import Dependence**: 60.9%, a year - on - year increase of 13.19% [37] 6.2 Refined Zinc Import - **July 2025**: The import volume was 17,904 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.97%; the cumulative import volume was 209,889 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.7% [37] - **Import Dependence**: 3.12%, a year - on - year decrease of 19.79% [37] Group 7: Supply - Demand Balance - **Zinc Concentrate (June 2025)**: - 57,000 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 209.62% [48] - **Refined Zinc (June 2025)**: 23,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2490.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 210.65% [48]

南华甲醇产业链数据周报20250824： 港口承压 戴一帆（Z0015428）张博（F03100606） 甲醇区域现货流通概括 2 周度产业链价格总览： | | | | | | | 期货 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | | 令日 | 上周 | 周涨跌 | 上月 | 月涨跌 | 价差 | 今日 | 上周 | 周辉联 | 上月 | 月涨跌 | | 01合约 | | 2410 | 2430 | -20 | 2503 | -93 | 1-5价差 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 75 | +48 | | 05合约 | | 2383 | 2402 | -19 | 2428 | -45 | 5-9价差 | 81 | 64 | r 17 | 3 | 78 | | 09合约 | | 2302 | 2338 | -36 | 2425 | -123 | 9-1价差 | -108 | -92 | -16 | -78 | +30 | | | | | | | | 国内 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the trading volume of commodity options decreased significantly by 24.45% compared to last week, and the open interest decreased by 24.29%. The market sentiment of commodity options cooled significantly, and the implied volatility of options generally declined [2][4]. - The implied volatility of lithium carbonate and soda ash options decreased by more than 4 percentage points compared to last Friday and are currently at the 60%-70% and 30%-40% historical quantile levels respectively [2][4]. 3. Summary of Relevant Content Volatility - As of Friday's close, the implied volatility of crude oil options was 28.91%, a decrease of 4.35% from a week ago; lithium carbonate options was 42.69%, a decrease of 5.54%; rebar options was 11.35%, a decrease of 0.46%; soda ash options was 18.20%, a decrease of 1.48%; gold options was 15.51%, a decrease of 0.25%; silver options was 18.06%, a decrease of 0.21%; palm oil options was 15.61%, an increase of 0.14%; soybean oil options was 21.60%, an increase of 2.06%; rapeseed oil options was 19.84%, a decrease of 0.35%; rubber options was 12.69%, a decrease of 2.85% [1][4]. Figures - There are multiple figures in the report, including those showing the trading volume and open interest, implied volatility and historical volatility, skewness structure, and term structure of various commodity options such as crude oil, lithium carbonate, rebar, soda ash, gold, silver, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and rubber [5][13][20].

Report Information - Report Title: "Deposit Certificate Weekly Report (0818 - 0824): Supply - Demand is Unfavorable, and Pricing Repair May be Difficult" [1] - Report Date: August 24, 2025 - Analyst: Zhou Guannan, Song Qi Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - Considering the relatively active certificate of deposit supply, the constraint of the lower limit of funds, and the lack of unexpected support on the demand side, it may be difficult to repair the pricing. Given the relatively weak supply - demand structure and stable capital prices, it is expected that the certificate of deposit pricing will maintain a high - level volatile state. If the capital stratification pressure remains at a seasonal level, the pressure for a significant price increase of certificates of deposit may be controllable. The allocation value of 1 - year national and joint - stock certificates of deposit can be considered at the range of 1.65% to 1.7% [2] Summary by Directory Supply: Net Financing Declines, and Term Structure Shortens - This week (August 18 - 24), the issuance scale of certificates of deposit was 54.921 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 24.551 billion yuan (compared with - 13.246 billion yuan from August 11 - 17). The issuance proportion of state - owned banks decreased from 38% to 27%, while that of joint - stock banks increased from 21% to 25%. The issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit decreased from 38% to 25%, and the weighted issuance term narrowed to 6.46 months (from 8.09 months). Next week (August 25 - 31), the maturity scale will decline to 75.108 billion yuan, a weekly decrease of 4.334 billion yuan [2][5] Demand: State - owned Banks and Overseas Institutions are the Main Secondary - market Allocators, and the Primary - market Subscription Rate Continues - In the secondary market, state - owned banks and overseas institutions are the main allocators, with weekly net purchases of 50.919 billion yuan and 36.713 billion yuan respectively. The weekly net purchase of insurance increased from 23.869 billion yuan to 27.908 billion yuan. The primary - market subscription rate (15DMA) of the whole market remained around 90% [2] Valuation: Certificates of Deposit are Priced Higher in the Primary Market, and Secondary - market Yields Rise - In the primary market, the issuance price of 1 - year national and joint - stock certificates of deposit increased to 1.68%. The 1 - month variety increased by 6bp, the 3 - month by 3bp, the 6 - month and 9 - month by 2bp, and the 1 - year by 4bp compared with last week. The 1Y - 3M term spread of joint - stock banks widened by 1bp, at the 24% historical quantile. The 1 - year credit spreads between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks, and rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed. In the secondary market, the yields of AAA - rated certificates of deposit all increased. The 1 - month variety increased by 4bp, the 3 - month and 1 - year by 3bp, and the 6 - month and 9 - month by 2bp. The 1Y - 3M term spread of AAA - rated certificates of deposit remained at the 27% historical quantile [2][22][30] Comparison: The Supply - Demand Structure is Unfavorable, and Pricing Repair May be Difficult - The spread between certificates of deposit and funds continued to widen. The spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated certificate of deposit yield and DR007:15DMA widened from 16.48BP to 19.19BP; the spread with R007:15DMA widened from 13.25BP to 17.48BP; the spread with the 1 - year treasury bond yield widened from 27.35BP to 29.43BP, and the quantile increased from 10% to 14%. The spread between certificates of deposit and China Development Bank bonds narrowed from 11.42BP to 9.95BP, and the quantile dropped to around 3%. The spread between AAA - rated medium - and short - term notes and certificates of deposit widened from 4.94BP to 7.30BP, and the quantile increased to 31% [2][35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View - Today's stock market showed a strong overall trend, with the Sci - tech Innovation Board surging. At the industry level, TMT led the gains. However, the ratio of rising to falling stocks was around 1.23, different from the previous near - across - the - board rise. Also, although tech concepts led the gains and had a higher weight in small - cap indices, large - cap indices performed stronger today, suggesting a possible shift of funds from small - cap to large - cap stocks. With the support of sentiment and funds, the stock market continued to rise. Taking the CSI 300 as an example, after breaking through the resistance line at 4250, it showed a strong trend, and the next resistance line is around the previous high of 4450. In the short term, continue to hold positions and observe while doing a good job in risk avoidance. Before the Jackson Hole meeting, several Fed officials made hawkish statements. If Powell takes a hawkish stance tonight, it may put some pressure on the A - share market from the perspectives of liquidity expectations and risk appetite [6]. Market Review - Today, the stock index showed a significant upward trend. In terms of capital flow, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 122.653 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all varieties rose with increased trading volume, and large - cap futures indices showed a stronger trend [4] Strategy Recommendation - Insurance strategy: Hold spot and buy put options [7] Futures Index Market Observation - Main contract intraday percentage changes: IF 2.72%, IH 2.80%, IC 2.50%, IM 2.25% - Trading volume (in ten thousand lots): IF 14.0136, IH 7.3462, IC 12.8579, IM 27.7717 - Trading volume change compared to the previous period (in ten thousand lots): IF 1.9002, IH 1.385, IC 0.7116, IM - 1.3374 - Open interest (in ten thousand lots): IF 27.7117, IH 11.3515, IC 23.3603, IM 39.1042 - Open interest change compared to the previous period (in ten thousand lots): IF 1.889, IH 1.0155, IC 0.4551, IM 0.0694 [7] Spot Market Observation - Shanghai Composite Index percentage change: 1.45% - Shenzhen Component Index percentage change: 2.07% - Ratio of rising to falling stocks: 1.23 - Total trading volume of the two markets (in billion yuan): 25467.10 - Trading volume change compared to the previous period (in billion yuan): 1226.53 [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the macro - sentiment was volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton slightly declined with the market. Xinjiang's new cotton is entering the boll - splitting and boll - opening stage, and most cotton fields may spray defoliants from late August to mid - early September. The downstream is approaching the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, with the load of downstream yarn mills remaining stable and that of fabric mills slightly increasing, and finished products are being destocked, showing signs of the peak season, but the downstream market is generally cautious and current orders are still insufficient. Abroad, the US may further increase tariffs on Indian imports, and India has announced a suspension of about 11% import tariffs on cotton arriving at ports from August 19 to September 30. As of August 19, about 22% of the cotton - planting areas in the US are affected by drought, with the drought area in the central - southern cotton region expanding significantly. Brazil's new cotton picking progress was slow but has recently accelerated. In the short term, the rapid destocking of old cotton and the low - inventory situation still strongly support cotton prices. With the marginal improvement in downstream sales, the operation strategy is to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the continuous demand during the peak season and the opening price of new cotton purchases [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Market - **Supply**: As of August 14, the national new cotton sales rate was 97.9%, 5.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 8.2 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [1]. - **Import**: In July, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous month and a decrease of 150,000 tons from the same period last year; the yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, the same as the previous month and a decrease of 20,000 tons from the same period last year; the cotton fabric import volume was 3,981.43 tons, a 29.16% increase from the previous month and a 10.57% decrease from the same period last year [1]. - **Demand**: In July, the domestic retail sales of textile and clothing were 96.1 billion yuan, a 24.63% decrease from the previous month and a 1.80% increase from the same period last year; the export volume of textile and clothing was 26.766 billion US dollars, a 2.01% decrease from the previous month and a 0.06% decrease from the same period last year [1]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China was 2.7444 million tons, a decrease of 343,800 tons from the end of July. Among them, the commercial inventory was 1.8202 million tons, a decrease of 369,600 tons from the end of July, and the industrial inventory was 924,200 tons, an increase of 25,800 tons from the end of July [1]. 3.2 International Market 3.2.1 US Market - **Supply**: As of August 17, the budding rate of cotton in the US was 97%, 1 percentage point behind the same period last year and 1 percentage point behind the average of the past five years; the boll - setting rate was 73%, 10 percentage points behind the same period last year and 7 percentage points behind the average of the past five years; the boll - opening rate was 13%, 5 percentage points behind the same period last year and 3 percentage points behind the average of the past five years; the overall good - quality rate of cotton plants was 55%, 2 percentage points higher than the previous week and 13 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1]. - **Demand**: From August 8 to 14, the net signing volume of US 2025/2026 - season upland cotton was 23,904 tons, a significant 56% decrease from the previous week; the shipment volume of upland cotton was 27,964 tons, a 32% decrease from the previous week; the net signing volume of Pima cotton was 227 tons, and the shipment volume was 1,043 tons. There were no signings of 2026/2027 - season upland cotton and Pima cotton this week [1]. 3.2.2 Southeast Asian Market - **Supply**: As of August 15, the new - season cotton sown area in India reached 10.8 million hectares, a decrease of about 2.9% compared to the same period last year [1]. - **Demand**: In July, Vietnam's textile and clothing export volume was 3.911 billion US dollars, an 8.7% increase from the previous month and a 5.3% increase from the same period last year; in June, Bangladesh's clothing export volume was 2.788 billion US dollars, a 28.87% decrease from the previous month and a 6.31% decrease from the same period last year; in July, India's clothing export volume was 1.340 billion US dollars, a 2.2% increase from the previous month and a 4.8% increase from the same period last year; in June, Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume was 1.522 billion US dollars, a 0.60% decrease from the previous month and a 7.59% increase from the same period last year [1]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Cotton Futures**: The closing price of Zhengzhou cotton 01 was 14,030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan and a 0.64% decline; the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton 05 was 13,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan and a 0.71% decline; the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton 09 was 13,760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan and a 0.54% decline [22][25]. - **Spot**: The price of CC Index 3128B was 15,243 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan and a 0.18% increase; the price of CC Index 2227B was 13,341 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan and a 0.04% increase; the price of CC Index 2129B was 15,528 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan and a 0.27% increase [25]. - **Spreads**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the CF5 - 9 spread was 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; the CF9 - 1 spread was - 270 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan [25]. - **Import Prices**: The price of FC Index M was 13,541 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan and a 0.26% decline; the price of FCY Index C32s was 21,232 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan and a 0.11% decline [25]. - **Yarn**: The closing price of yarn futures was 20,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan and a 0.62% decline; the spot price of yarn was 20,720 yuan/ton, with no change [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The BDTI crude oil freight rate index closed at 1029 points on August 21, 2025, with a week - on - week increase of 0.98% and a year - on - year increase of 9.11%, but the growth rate narrowed. The significant increase in Middle East crude oil shipments and the obvious recovery of the demand for VLCC tankers supported the continuous rise of the BDTI index. However, the decrease in tanker traffic in major sea areas may have a negative impact on the next period's BDTI index, with the growth rate continuing to narrow or turning from rising to falling. Key events to watch include the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the Jackson Hole Conference [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 BDTI Crude Oil Freight Rate Index Trend - As of August 21, 2025, the BDTI crude oil freight rate index closed at 1029 points, up 0.98% week - on - week and 9.11% year - on - year. From a seasonal perspective, the growth rate of the freight rate continued to narrow [2] 3.2 Tanker Shipping Distance - In the 31st week of 2025 (as of August 8), the shipping distances of VLCC, Suezmax, and Aframax tankers all increased week - on - week, with the Suezmax tanker having the largest increase at 33.33%. Compared with the same period last year, the shipping distances of all three types of tankers decreased, and the Aframax tanker had the largest decrease at 12.62% [5][8] - From August 15 - 21, 2025, the total tanker traffic in the Red Sea decreased. The average number of tankers passing through the Red Sea was 792, 23 less than the previous week. In the Aden Gulf, the tanker traffic decreased significantly, with 104 tankers passing through, 41 less than the previous week [7] 3.3 Tanker Capacity - As of August 15, 2025, the number of scrapped tankers remained unchanged week - on - week at 9425, an increase of 81 year - on - year; the number of effective tankers increased by 10 week - on - week to 18320, an increase of 444 year - on - year; the number of delivered tankers decreased by 6 week - on - week to 213, an increase of 93 year - on - year; the number of tanker orders decreased by 1 week - on - week to 1342, an increase of 103 year - on - year; the number of tankers under construction increased by 1 week - on - week to 216, an increase of 75 year - on - year [9] - As of August 16, the tanker capacity at ports for all types of tankers decreased. The number of VLCC tankers at ports decreased by 46 to 2288, Aframax tankers decreased by 98 to 2638, and Suezmax tankers decreased by 86 to 2121 [9] 3.4 Crude Oil Shipment Data Tracking - As of August 15, 2025, the crude oil shipments from the US and Russia decreased week - on - week, while those from Saudi Arabia and the UAE increased. US crude oil shipments decreased by 11.89%, Russian shipments decreased by 10.47%, Saudi Arabian shipments increased by 12.85%, and UAE shipments increased by 2.98% [2][11] - In terms of shipment vessel types: For US crude oil, the demand for VLCC tankers increased by 29.09% week - on - week, while the demand for Aframax and Suezmax tankers decreased by 24.92% and 27.22% respectively. For Russian crude oil, the demand for Aframax and Suezmax tankers decreased by 11.28% and 14.72% respectively. For Saudi Arabian crude oil, the demand for VLCC tankers increased by 17.54% week - on - week, while the demand for Aframax and Suezmax tankers decreased by 10.73% and 29.31% respectively. For UAE crude oil, the demand for VLCC and Suezmax tankers increased by 0.36% and 12.66% respectively, while the demand for Aframax tankers decreased by 63.84% [11][12] 3.5 Crude Oil Arrival - During the week, the crude oil arrivals in China and the Netherlands increased week - on - week and were higher than the same period last year, while India's crude oil arrivals were lower than the historical average and similar to last year [29]

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing revenue pressure due to declining domestic and international interest rates and competitive fee structures in the futures brokerage market, but the dual-driven business model is expected to support high growth in performance [1][3]. Financial Performance - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 31.03 yuan. Projected revenue and net profit for 2025H1 are 1.101 billion yuan and 231 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -58.27% and +0.46% respectively [2]. - The weighted average ROE decreased by 0.52 percentage points to 5.51% [2]. - The EPS forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 0.82, 0.97, and 1.15 yuan, respectively, up from previous estimates [2]. Revenue Drivers - Interest income for 2025H1 is expected to decline by 27.80% to 253 million yuan, significantly impacting adjusted revenue [3]. - The company's overseas subsidiaries achieved a 26.46% growth in futures margin, indicating strong momentum in international business [3]. - The net commission rate has decreased due to market competition, leading to a 13.88% drop in net income from fees and commissions to 235 million yuan [3]. Business Growth Potential - The company is advancing plans for H-share financing, which is expected to enhance its financial service capabilities and strengthen its self-clearing system [4]. - The ongoing internationalization of the RMB is anticipated to expand domestic business opportunities, particularly in futures and foreign exchange markets [4]. Catalysts - Successful H-share listing and financing [5]. - Continuous progress in RMB internationalization [5].

Group 1: Military Industry - The military sector is experiencing an upward trend, driven by the intensifying geopolitical competition among major powers, with a long-term positive outlook for military investments [4][5][6] - The recent commemorative events for the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War have highlighted the importance of national defense, leading to increased military spending [5] - Key companies to focus on include major manufacturers and component suppliers such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, AVIC South Lake, and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry [4] Group 2: Non-Metallic Building Materials - The implementation of new national standards for refrigerators is expected to accelerate the demand for VIP boards, with the company Reascent Technology poised for significant growth following its acquisition of Maikelong [8][9] - The company has integrated its supply chain from fiberglass cotton to VIP core materials and VIP boards, which is anticipated to enhance its competitive edge and profitability [9] Group 3: Dairy Industry - The price of raw milk continues to decline, and a supply-demand balance is expected in the second half of 2025, benefiting from reduced production and improved demand [11][19] - Beef prices are entering an upward cycle due to supply reduction and decreased import pressures, with a projected increase in profitability for livestock companies [12][20] - The cyclical resonance between meat and milk production is expected to enhance the profitability of leading livestock companies [11][21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but since late April, they have been in a continuous oscillation, lacking further inflation or interest - rate cut trading impetus. For London gold, short - term resistance is at 3350, and if broken, it may test 3375 and then the 3400 area, with support at 3330 and strong support at 3300 - 3310. For London silver, it stopped falling and rebounded around 37, short - term resistance is at the 38.2 area, and if broken, it may retest 38.7, with support at 37. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On Thursday, the precious metals market saw gold oscillate and silver rise slightly. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields increased, exerting pressure. The US stock market oscillated and adjusted, crude oil rose, Bitcoin fell, and the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metal Index oscillated. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3383.5 per ounce, down 0.15%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $38.1 per ounce, up 0.87%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was 775.12 yuan per gram, up 0.3%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was 9162 yuan per kilogram, up 0.63% [2]. 3.2 Interest - Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest - rate cut expectations continued to cool. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 25%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 75%. For October, the probability of unchanged rates is 13.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 51.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 35.3%. For December, the probability of unchanged rates is 3.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 24.4%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 46.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 25%. In terms of long - term funds, SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 1.44 tons to 956.77 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 28.24 tons to 15277.52 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 25.1 tons to 1115.1 tons, and as of the week ending August 15, SGX silver inventory decreased by 17.7 tons to 1286.8 tons [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week's data is scarce, and there is no important data release on Friday. The event focus is on the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. At 22:00 on Friday, Fed Chairman Powell will give a speech at the meeting [4]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Data - **Precious Metals Price Table**: SHFE gold main - continuous contract was 775.12 yuan per gram, up 0.32%; SGX gold TD was 771.66 yuan per gram, up 0.24%; CME gold main contract was $3383.5 per ounce, down 0.26%; SHFE silver main - continuous contract was 9162 yuan per kilogram, up 1.33%; SGX silver TD was 9144 yuan per kilogram, up 1.35%; CME silver main contract was $38.1 per ounce, up 0.54% [6]. - **Inventory and Position Table**: SHFE gold inventory was 36642 kilograms, up 0.16%; CME gold inventory was 1199.7791 tons, up 0.03%; SHFE gold position was 183215 lots, down 4.31%; SPDR gold position was 956.77 tons, down 0.15%; SHFE silver inventory was 1115.055 tons, down 2.21%; CME silver inventory was 15816.1046 tons, unchanged; SGX silver inventory was 1286.835 tons, down 1.35%; SHFE silver position was 307098 lots, down 3.63%; SLV silver position was 15277.5184 tons, down 0.18% [13][15]. 3.5 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The US dollar index was 98.6409, up 0.42%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.1853, up 0.06%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 44785.5 points, down 0.34%; WTI crude oil spot was $63.52 per barrel, up 1.29%; LmeS copper 03 was $9734.5 per ton, up 0.14%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.33%, up 0.93%; the 10 - year US real interest rate was 1.94%, unchanged; the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread was 0.54%, down 1.82% [21].