Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of each monthly contract of the container shipping index (European route) futures opened with a significant decline and then continued to fluctuate downward. By the close, the prices of EC monthly contracts showed mixed trends. The reduction in the spot cabin quotes of Maersk and ONE lowered the valuation of the current near - month contract futures prices, leading to a decline in futures prices. However, the potential for relatively low tariffs between the US and Europe and the expected recovery of trade have a certain positive impact on the far - month futures prices. The futures prices still have bottom support, and the SCFI European route has slightly rebounded. Near - month contracts are more likely to experience a short - term correction, but the overall trend may still be slightly downward with fluctuations [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Cabin Management**: For those who have already obtained cabins but have full capacity or poor booking volume and are worried about falling freight rates (long spot exposure), they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits, with a recommended selling range of 1800 - 1900 [1]. - **Cost Management**: When shipping companies increase blank sailings or the market is about to enter the peak season, and one wants to book cabins according to order situations (short spot exposure), they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance, with a recommended buying range of 1350 - 1450 [1]. Market Data Analysis Position and Trading Volume Changes - For the EC2510 contract, long positions decreased by 559 lots to 25,266 lots, short positions decreased by 236 lots to 31,305 lots, and trading volume decreased by 19,270 lots to 50,437 lots (bilateral) [1]. Basis Changes | Contract | Basis (Points) | Daily Change (Points) | Weekly Change (Points) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 | 187.90 | 32.30 | 53.30 | | EC2510 | 873.00 | 56.40 | 85.50 | | EC2512 | 680.30 | 59.70 | 70.80 | | EC2602 | 881.70 | 43.50 | - 23.70 | | EC2604 | 1038.80 | 20.30 | - 32.30 | | EC2606 | 882.5 | - 11.10 | - 96.14 | [4][5] Futures Price and Spread Changes | Contract | Closing Price (Points) | Daily Change Rate | Weekly Change Rate | Spread Contract | Closing Price (Points) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 | 2212.6 | - 1.44% | - 2.35% | EC2508 - 2512 | 492.4 | 27.4 | 17.5 | | EC2510 | 1527.5 | - 3.56% | - 5.30% | EC2512 - 2604 | 358.5 | - 39.4 | - 119.7 | | EC2512 | 1720.2 | - 3.35% | - 3.95% | EC2604 - 2508 | - 850.9 | 12.0 | 21.3 | | EC2602 | 1518.8 | - 2.78% | 1.59% | EC2508 - 2510 | 685.1 | 27.4 | 32.2 | | EC2604 | 1361.7 | 0.15% | 2.43% | EC2510 - 2512 | - 192.7 | 3.3 | - 14.7 | | EC2606 | 1518.0 | 0.74% | 5.18% | EC2512 - 2602 | 201.4 | - 16.2 | - 94.2 | [5] Market News and Quotes Spot Cabin Quotes - On August 7, for Maersk's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP increased by $7 to $1822, and the total quote for 40GP increased by $14 to $3064 compared to the previous period. For ONE's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam in mid - to - early August, the total quote for 20GP decreased by $493 to $2321, and the total quote for 40GP decreased by $500 to $3143 compared to the previous period [7]. Global Freight Rate Indexes | Index | Latest Value | Previous Value | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Route (Points) | 2400.5 | 2421.94 | - 21.44 | - 0.89% | | SCFIS: US West Route (Points) | 1301.81 | 1266.59 | 35.22 | 2.78% | | SCFI: European Route ($/TEU) | 2090 | 2079 | 11 | 0.53% | | SCFI: US West Route ($/FEU) | 2067 | 2142 | - 75 | - 3.50% | | XSI: European Route ($/FEU) | 3406 | 3407 | - 1 | - 0.03% | | XSI: US West Route ($/FEU) | 2216 | 2248 | - 32 | - 1.4% | | FBX Comprehensive Freight Rate Index ($/FEU) | 2366 | 2348 | 18 | 0.77% | [8] Port - Related Data Global Main Port Waiting Times | Port | July 24, 2025 | July 23, 2025 | Daily Change | Last Year's Same Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Hong Kong Port | 1.080 | 1.312 | - 0.232 | 0.455 | | Shanghai Port | 1.169 | 1.212 | - 0.043 | 1.423 | | Yantian Port | 1.253 | 0.868 | 0.385 | 0.565 | | Singapore Port | 0.556 | 0.513 | 0.043 | 0.554 | | Jakarta Port | 10.642 | 2.050 | 8.592 | 1.759 | | Long Beach Port | 1.909 | 1.927 | - 0.018 | 2.572 | | Savannah Port | 1.535 | 1.431 | 0.104 | 1.449 | [15] Ship Speed and Waiting Ship Quantity in Suez Canal | Ship Type | July 24, 2025 | July 23, 2025 | Daily Change | Last Year's Same Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8000+ | 15.794 | 15.843 | - 0.049 | 15.904 | | 3000+ | 14.861 | 15.037 | - 0.176 | 14.73 | | 1000+ | 13.134 | 13.269 | - 0.135 | 13.232 | | Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage | 13 | 18 | - 5 | 11 | [23]

南华期货沥青风险管理日报 2025年7月25日 凌川惠（投资咨询证号：Z0019531） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 沥青价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沥青主力合约 | 3400-3750 | 22.30% | 8.95% | source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 沥青风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例（%） 建议入场区间 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心沥青价格 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空 | bu2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 3650-3750 | | | 下跌 | | 沥青期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | 采购管理 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据订 | 空 | 为了防止沥青价格上涨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the current macro sentiment is positive, and the overall commodity market is strong. With the increase in both supply and demand of industrial silicon and the rise of polysilicon prices, industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short term, and the downside risk is limited [3][5]. - For polysilicon, policy expectations have sparked market speculation. Before the measures are implemented, the market can repeatedly speculate on the rectification expectations, which will have a substantial positive impact on future deliverable brand companies. However, after the measures are implemented, the market will react according to the measures, and one should be vigilant about the situation of "strong expectations, weak reality" [11][12]. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 1. Weekly Summary Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated and strengthened this week. The weighted index contract closed at 9,709 yuan/ton, up 11.54% week-on-week. The trading volume was 957,248 lots, down 50.89% week-on-week, and the open interest was 568,379 lots, down 50,087 lots week-on-week. The spread between SI2509 - SI2511 maintained a back structure, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 683 lots to 49,710 lots [3][15]. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market quotes of the silicon industry chain were stable this week. The supply side saw stable silica prices, and the market quotes of industrial silicon and silicon powder increased overall, with a weekly increase of over 20%. The operating rate of industrial silicon increased slightly, and the output increased by 605 tons week-on-week. On the demand side, the organic silicon market quotes increased by 14.75% week-on-week, with a stable operating rate and high current output. The aluminum alloy market was still in the off - season, with stable quotes and downstream procurement on demand. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 0.755 million tons, the aluminum alloy inventory increased, and the recycled aluminum alloy inventory decreased [3]. - **Core Logic**: Fundamentally, industrial silicon is in the industrial cycle of eliminating backward production capacity, and the pressure of oversupply persists. As the wet season approaches, enterprises in the southwest region are gradually increasing furnace starts, and the resumption of production expectations are gradually being realized, with a risk of further inventory accumulation. The improvement in polysilicon profits is expected to drive the demand for industrial silicon, but one should be vigilant that if the "anti - involution" measures are implemented and enterprises adjust production such as production cuts, it will suppress the demand for industrial silicon. The linkage logic between industrial silicon and polysilicon in the second half of the year can be divided into two stages: the first stage is dominated by integration expectations, and the second stage is the verification period after the measures are implemented [3]. - **Nanhua's View**: The current supply and demand of industrial silicon are both increasing, and with the rise of polysilicon, it will drive industrial silicon to fluctuate and strengthen. In the short term, the decline of industrial silicon is limited, and it should be viewed with a bullish and fluctuating mindset [5]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on industrial silicon at low prices in the short term; pay attention to the opportunity to sell put options [6]. - **Positive Factors**: Rising electricity prices will increase the production cost of industrial silicon; the cost side has limited room for further contraction in the short term, and there is strong cost support; the resumption of production expectations of downstream enterprises are gradually being realized, increasing the demand for industrial silicon [7]. - **Negative Factors**: As the wet season approaches, the decrease in electricity prices will increase the operating expectations of factories in the southwest region, and the production capacity will be released as scheduled; if the polysilicon industry integration is successful, the demand for industrial silicon will further decrease; high inventory suppresses market prices, and the de - stocking process is slow [8]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures fluctuated and strengthened this week. The weighted index contract closed at 51,319 yuan/ton, up 16.62% week-on-week. The trading volume was 1,238,561 lots, down 28.91% week-on-week, and the open interest was approximately 322,759 lots, down 25,674 lots week-on-week. The spread between PS2509 - PS2512 maintained a back structure, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 240 lots to 3,020 lots [10][15]. - **Industry Performance**: The supply side of the photovoltaic industry chain performed well this week. Polysilicon and the downstream silicon wafer segment maintained their quotes. The raw material market improved, with the silicon powder price increasing week-on-week and active market transactions. Large polysilicon manufacturers held back supplies to support prices, and the N - type polysilicon price index increased by 1.71%. The output of polysilicon enterprises increased week-on-week. On the demand side, the N - type silicon wafer market quotes increased by about 4%, and manufacturers started to support prices due to the increase in raw material quotes. The battery cell and component market quotes remained stable. The weekly output of the silicon wafer market increased by 0.1 GW week-on-week. In terms of inventory, the polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons, the silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.85 GW week-on-week, and the inventory of photovoltaic battery export factories decreased by 6.02 GW week-on-week [10]. - **Core Logic**: Polysilicon is in a stage where fundamental logic and "anti - involution" logic alternate. Fundamentally, the expectation of lower electricity prices as the wet season approaches is expected to reduce the production cost of polysilicon. At the same time, the production schedule in July increased month-on-month, and the supply increment is continuously being released. The downstream is affected by the photovoltaic rush - installation tide, which has overdrafted future demand in advance, resulting in limited expected demand growth in the second half of the year. The inventory side continues to face high inventory pressure of silicon materials and downstream products, and the market de - stocking process has not shown a substantial marginal improvement, and inventory consumption still takes time. From the "anti - involution" logic analysis, if an effective integration agreement can be reached in the industry in the future, it is expected to reverse the current dilemma of the polysilicon industry. The current market speculates on the supply - side reform expectation in advance, pushing up the polysilicon price, which is expected to improve the situation of polysilicon production enterprises in advance and increase their production enthusiasm [11]. - **Nanhua's View**: Policy expectations have triggered market speculation enthusiasm. Before the measures are implemented, the market can repeatedly speculate on the rectification expectations, and the increase in futures prices will have a substantial positive impact on future deliverable brand companies. However, after the measures are implemented, the market will react according to the measures, and one should be vigilant about the situation of "strong expectations, weak reality" [12]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Pay attention to the positive spread trading opportunity between PS2509 - PS2512 [13]. - **Positive Factors**: The industry may introduce a capacity integration and elimination plan in the future. If a substantial integration agreement is reached in the industry, it is expected to promote the improvement of the polysilicon industry pattern; the current situation of high open interest in the near - month contracts and a small number of warehouse receipts [14]. - **Negative Factors**: If the industry integration and elimination plan fails to be implemented and enterprises continue their current normal production rhythm, the inventory will continue to accumulate [14]. 2. Prices and Spreads - **Futures**: Provided the price, trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipt data of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures, as well as the price data of some industrial silicon and polysilicon - related products [15]. - **Spot**: Included price trend charts of silicon - related products such as silica, industrial silicon, and silicon powder in different regions [24][25][27]. 3. Upstream - Industrial Silicon - **Operating Rate**: Showed the seasonal operating rate data of metal silicon and industrial silicon in different regions [30][31]. - **Output**: Presented the weekly output data of industrial silicon in different regions, including Xinjiang, the northwest, Yunnan, and Sichuan. The total output increased by 605 tons week-on-week to 41,560 tons [33][35][37]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 0.755 million tons to 71 million tons. Also provided the seasonal inventory data of industrial silicon in different regions [38][39]. 4. Downstream - Organic Silicon - **Operating Rate and Output**: Showed the monthly production volume of organic silicon DMC and the monthly export volume of primary - form polysiloxane [47]. 5. Downstream - Silicon Aluminum Alloy Primary Aluminum Alloy - **Operating Rate and Output**: Provided the seasonal operating rate, monthly production volume, and weekly social inventory data of primary aluminum alloy [49]. Recycled Aluminum Alloy - **Operating Rate and Output**: Showed the seasonal operating rate, monthly production volume, and weekly factory - level inventory data of recycled aluminum alloy [51]. 6. Downstream - Polysilicon Polysilicon - **Operating Rate, Output, and Inventory**: Provided the seasonal operating rate, weekly output, and total inventory data of polysilicon, as well as the average cost data of the polysilicon industry [53][54]. Silicon Wafer - **Output and Inventory**: Showed the weekly output and inventory data of silicon wafers [58]. Battery Cell - **Operating Rate, Output, and Inventory**: Provided the seasonal operating rate, monthly output, and weekly inventory data of photovoltaic battery cells [60][62]. Component - **Operating Rate, Output, and Inventory**: Showed the seasonal operating rate, monthly output, monthly export volume, and inventory data of photovoltaic components, as well as the monthly output data of N - type and P - type components [64][66][67].

Report Details 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - The trading desk is advised to wait and see temporarily [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Treasury bond futures fluctuated higher in the morning, declined in the afternoon, and plunged at the end of the session, with most closing down. In the cash bond market, yields initially fell by up to 4bp in the morning, rebounded in the afternoon, and then declined again after the market, halting the continuous upward trend. Short - term bonds outperformed long - term bonds [2] - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan in reverse repurchases, with 187.5 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 601.8 billion yuan, which improved market sentiment [2] 3.2 News and Policy - The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a mid - year work meeting on July 24, emphasizing that although the internal and external environment of the capital market remains complex, the certainty of high - quality economic development, macro - policy expectations, and the valuation repair of Chinese assets provide a basis for the stable and healthy operation of the market [3] - Deputy Governor Zou Lan mentioned coordinating treasury bond issuance with the Ministry of Finance during the session, which improved the sentiment of bond market bulls [4] 3.3 Market Analysis - The central bank's net injection of over 600 billion yuan alleviated market tension. The central bank's supportive monetary policy stance is the last and strongest support for the bulls [4] - The A - share market adjusted during the session, with the broader market weaker than small and medium - cap stocks. The TMT sector, which had been continuously adjusting, rebounded, while sectors such as building materials and building decoration related to the Ya - Xia concept led the decline, and upstream resource stocks significantly adjusted. There was a divergence between the equity market and the commodity market, with commodities remaining strong [4] - The late - session plunge in treasury bond futures may have been affected by the strong performance of commodities [4] 3.4 Data Overview - Data for various treasury bond futures contracts (TS2509, TF2509, T2509, TL2509) including opening, closing, high, low prices, and changes, as well as contract positions and trading volumes are provided. Data on various deposit - based inter - bank repurchase rates (DR001, DR007, DR014) and their trading volumes are also presented [5]

周四贵金属市场延续调整回落，美指收涨，10Y美债收益率亦回升则利空贵金属估值。周边欧美股市涨跌不 一，中国股市走强，比特币震荡，原油上涨，南华有色金属指数亦偏强，国内股市近期偏强走势已导致本周 国内黄金ETF流出和短期重新配置。最终COMEX黄金2508合约收报3371.3美元/盎司，-0.77%；美白银 2509合约收报于39.285美元/盎司，-0.55%。 SHFE黄金2510主力合约778.74元/克，-1.6%；SHFE白银 2510合约收9386元/千克，-0.83%。消息面，美联储"装修门"升级，特朗普首次"上门"施压降息，但解 雇鲍威尔警报暂停，贝森特指有其他风险。欧洲央行周四如期维持主要利率在2%不变，以等待欧盟与美国贸 易关系走向的更多明确信号，市场仍押注今年稍晚还有至少一次降息。会后拉加德表示央行处于"观望模 式"，市场明显下调9月降息预期。关税贸易战方面，墨西哥总统辛鲍姆表示，墨西哥努力避免8月美国关税 提高。墨西哥向美国提出了减少贸易逆差的计划。如有必要，将与特朗普进行交谈。数据方面，美国7月标普 全球制造业PMI初值 49.5，预期52.7，前值52.9；美国7月标普全球服务业PM ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The external market has found support at key integer levels, but Sino-US talks and weather conditions can no longer drive the market to rebound. Future focus should be on China's purchases and weather conditions in US soybean-producing areas. The domestic soybean market has seen a significant decline due to the soybean meal feed reduction substitution plan. The far-month basis quote has weakened, and the near-month warehouse receipt pressure has returned, leading to a correction of the basis. The rapeseed market has followed the decline of soybean meal. In the short term, the contradictions have returned to reality, and the far-month supply-demand gap remains the key focus for layout [4]. - Positive factors include the expectation of Sino-US peace talks supporting the US soybean market, strong bullish sentiment in the far month due to weather speculation, and the Brazilian export premium supporting the far-month contract prices from the cost side [5]. - Negative factors include the supply pressure on the spot side mainly reflected in the basis, the need to focus on the departure of near-month long funds for the return of the futures and spot markets, the expected soybean arrivals showing a gap after December, and the impact of the recent Indian rapeseed issue on the upward momentum, along with the lack of elasticity in the market's repeated pricing of the potential Sino-Canadian and Sino-Australian talks [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. For rapeseed meal, the price range is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1266 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0718 [3]. 3.2 Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about falling meal prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Feed mills with low regular inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. 3.3 Futures Price - The closing prices and daily changes of soybean meal futures contracts are as follows: M01 is 3059, down 57 (-1.83%); M05 is 2753, down 16 (-0.58%); M09 is 3025, down 70 (-2.26%). For rapeseed meal futures, RM01 is 2412, down 32 (-1.31%); RM05 is 2371, down 12 (-0.5%); RM09 is 2682, down 76 (-2.76%). CBOT yellow soybeans closed at 1022.5 with no change, and the offshore RMB closed at 7.1518, down 0.0174 (-0.24%) [7][9]. 3.4 Spread - The spreads and daily changes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are as follows: M01 - 05 is 347, up 3; M05 - 09 is -326, unchanged; M09 - 01 is -21, down 3; RM01 - 05 is 61, up 1; RM05 - 09 is -375, down 16; RM09 - 01 is 314, up 15. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2860, down 60, and the basis is -175, up 11. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2630, down 32, and the basis is -128, down 54. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 290, up 52, and the futures spread is 337, down 13 [10]. 3.5 Import Cost and Profit - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4766.8495 yuan/ton, up 8.7627 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 0.004 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3938.83 yuan/ton, up 12.66 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 21.8 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is -843.5845 yuan/ton, up 8.7627 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 7.0881 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 173.8811 yuan/ton, up 40.4599 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 0.9124 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the futures market is 238 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 147 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the spot market is 220 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 154 yuan/ton from the previous week [11].

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 24, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Tin price increase on Monday was due to the impact of anti - involution on the entire non - ferrous sector, but the fundamental situation of tin itself remained unchanged. In the short term, considering the upcoming outflow of Burmese tin ore and the lack of signs of improvement in downstream demand, the view that the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support still holds [3] Summary by Category Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 268,540 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2] Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to short the main Shanghai tin futures contract (75% hedging ratio, around 275,000 yuan/ton) and sell call options (25% hedging ratio, when volatility is appropriate) [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to long the main Shanghai tin futures contract (50% hedging ratio, around 230,000 yuan/ton) and sell put options (25% hedging ratio, when volatility is appropriate) [2] Market Factors Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy relaxation, the semiconductor sector still in the expansion cycle, Burmese复产 falling short of expectations, and anti - involution benefiting the entire non - ferrous metal sector [7] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy reversals, the start of Burmese tin ore flowing into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [5][7] Futures and Spot Data Futures Data (Daily) - The latest price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract is 268,540 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The LME tin 3M price is 34,750 US dollars/ton, up 830 US dollars or 2.45% [6] Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 268,900 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan or 2.01%. The price of 40% tin concentrate is 256,900 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan or 2.11% [11] Import and Processing - The latest tin import loss is 16,361.68 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 569.93 yuan or - 3.37%. The 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton, with no daily change [16] Inventory Data Daily Inventory - The total Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipt quantity is 6,807 tons, up 16 tons or 0.24%. The LME tin total inventory is 1,715 tons, down 170 tons or - 9.02% [20]

本周数据总体清淡，适当关注周四晚间美国7月标普制造业与服务业PMI初值以及周度初请失业金人数。事 南华贵金属日报: 贸易关税担忧趋缓削弱避险情绪 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年7月24日 【行情回顾】 周三贵金属市场有所调整，美指虽延续偏弱，但10Y美债收益率走高利空贵金属估值。周边美股再刷新 高，比特币和原油震荡，南华有色金属指数调整。最终COMEX黄金2508合约收报3397.5美元/盎 司，-1.34%；美白银2509合约收报于39.52美元/盎司，-0.09%。 SHFE黄金2510主力合约792.9元/克， +0.9%；SHFE白银2510合约收9492元/千克，+1.16%。随着8月1日关税落地期限临近，美国关税贸易战趋 缓提升市场风险偏好并短期压制贵金属价格，特朗普通过社交媒体宣布美国与日本达成贸易协议，对日关税 税率为15%及日本5500亿美元对美投资；媒体称欧美接近达成协议、美将对欧盟征15%关税，虽此后白宫回 应是臆测，但仍引发一定贵金属多头获利了结。美联储方面，政府对美联储干预仍在持续进行，这将促使美 联储独立性原则 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Recently, the macro - atmosphere has been warm, the double - coke futures have strongly rebounded, speculative demand has entered the market to lock in goods, spot liquidity has tightened, coal enterprises have raised prices, and coking profits are under pressure. The second round of price increases by coking plants at the beginning of the week is likely to be implemented. This week, iron ore has strongly rebounded, squeezing immediate steel profits, but steel profits calculated based on raw material inventories are still expanding. Steel mills have little willingness to cut pig iron production, and the procurement demand for coal and coke is strong. Speculative and rigid demand support the double - coke futures and spot prices. The market's expectation of Supply - side 2.0 is intensifying, and the short - term futures may continue to fluctuate strongly. In the medium - to - long term, the sharp rise in furnace materials threatens steel mills' profitability, high pig iron production may not be sustainable. Steel billet export orders have declined, and inventory accumulation is accelerating. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and not to chase high prices. For arbitrage, pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse spread opportunity of coal and coke [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Double - Coke Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for coking coal is 1030 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. For coke, the monthly price range forecast is 1350 - 1800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13% [3]. Double - Coke Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For the arbitrage scenario of inter - month spread, with no spot exposure, it is recommended to short the coking coal 9 - 1 spread (jm2509&jm2601), sell at the suggested entry range of (- 40, - 30) [3]. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - On July 23, 2025, compared with July 22, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of rebar remained unchanged at 86,534 tons; hot - rolled coil decreased by 598 tons to 58,951 tons; iron ore decreased by 200 lots to 3,100 lots; coking coal decreased by 500 lots to 0 lots; coke remained unchanged at 760 lots; ferrosilicon remained unchanged at 22,150 sheets; and ferromanganese decreased by 523 sheets to 77,972 sheets [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - Supply - side 2.0 has disturbed market sentiment, and the market has a good bullish atmosphere. Downstream steel mills have good profits, with a profit per ton of over 100, and it is difficult to reduce pig iron production in the off - season. There is speculation about the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. Coking plants are suffering serious losses and there is still an expectation of price increases [5]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - Coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production beyond expectations. The military parade on September 3 may affect steel production around Hebei. The shipment of imported coal has increased, and the subsequent port - arrival pressure is increasing [6]. Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Price Data - A large amount of data on coal and coke futures and spot prices, including basis, cost, price differences between different contracts, and various profit data, are provided. For example, on July 23, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian No. 5) was 1008 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis was - 128.0 yuan/ton; the immediate coking profit was - 19 yuan/ton [6][7][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerating the clearance of backward production capacity and entering the destocking process. The supply pressure will be continuously released with the implementation of production plans in Southwest China during the wet season. The overall support from the downstream demand side is expected to strengthen, but the demand may be suppressed if the integration of the photovoltaic industry makes substantial progress. The inventory is expected to further decline with the improvement of demand. Overall, the price of industrial silicon will show a wide - range oscillation in the second half of the year. The strategy is to pay attention to the opportunity of laying out long positions in industrial silicon on dips [4]. - The positive factors include the positive signal from the "anti - involution" policy, limited further downward space for costs in the short term, and better - than - expected demand. The negative factors are the release of production capacity in Southwest China during the wet season and the potential weakening of demand due to the integration of downstream polysilicon enterprises [7][8]. Polysilicon - In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is in a stage where the fundamental logic and the "anti - involution" logic alternate. From the fundamental perspective, the expectation of lower electricity prices and increased profits may prompt enterprises to increase production capacity, while the demand growth is limited, and the high - inventory pressure persists. From the "anti - involution" logic, effective integration agreements or coordinated production - reduction measures may reverse the current situation. The strategy is to pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between PS2509 and PS2512. - The positive factors are the potential industry - wide capacity integration and the external demand stimulus from the US "big and beautiful" bill. The negative factor is the potential inventory accumulation if the integration plan fails to materialize [10]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 9525 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.35% and a weekly increase of 9.67%. The trading volume is 1681997 lots, with a daily increase of 36.26% and a weekly increase of 51.32%. The open interest is 334776 lots, with a daily decrease of 12.12% and a weekly decrease of 11.87% [13]. - The SI09 - 11 spread is 160 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 10.34% and a weekly increase of 128.57%. The SI11 - 12 spread is - 265 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of - 17.19% and a weekly increase of - 18.46% [15]. Spot Data - The prices of 553 and 421 industrial silicon in various regions have increased, with daily increases ranging from 3.02% to 4.42%. The basis of East China 553 and 421 has increased significantly, with the daily increase of the basis of East China 553 reaching 955.56% and that of East China 421 reaching 145.76%. The price difference between East China 421 and 553 remains unchanged [17]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total warehouse receipts are 50106 lots, with a decrease of 5.19%. The inventory in some delivery warehouses has changed, such as a decrease of 13.73% in the Tianjin delivery warehouse and an increase of 1.45% in the Sichuan delivery warehouse [24][25]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract is 50080 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.99% and a weekly increase of 16.61%. The trading volume is 1246241 lots, with a daily increase of 64.52% and a weekly increase of 177.03%. The open interest is 165641 lots, with a daily decrease of 13.81% and a weekly increase of 130.75% [28]. - The PS08 - 09 spread is 115 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 55.77% and a weekly decrease of 51.06%. The PS08 - 11 spread is 440 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 39.31% and a weekly decrease of 61.74%. The PS09 - 11 spread is 325 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 30.11% and a weekly decrease of 64.48%. The PS11 - 12 spread is - 1950 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of - 12.95% and a weekly increase of - 8.02% [30]. Spot Data - The prices of most polysilicon products remain stable, with only the N - type polysilicon price index increasing by 1.15% and the particle silicon increasing by 2.33%. The prices of silicon wafers and solar cells remain unchanged [35][37]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 6030 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 8.55% and a weekly decrease of 1294.06%. The warehouse receipts in various regions remain unchanged [42][44].