Report Summary 1. Core View - The external market has found support at key integer levels, but Sino-US talks and weather conditions can no longer drive the market to rebound. Attention should be paid to China's purchases and weather in US soybean-producing areas. The domestic soybean complex is expected to continue the positive spread logic, and the rapeseed complex is strong due to short - term warehouse receipt supply - demand mismatch. Short - term contradictions cannot drive the market to strengthen significantly, and the far - month supply - demand gap is the focus for layout [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include Sino - US peace talks expectations, strong far - month bullish sentiment in the weather market, and cost support from Brazil's export premium for far - month contracts. Bearish factors involve spot supply pressure on the basis, expected soybean arrivals, and the impact of the Indian rapeseed issue and potential supply recovery of rapeseed [5][6]. 2. Price Forecast and Strategy Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. For rapeseed meal, it is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1266 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0718 [3]. Hedging Strategy - Traders with high protein inventory can short M2509 soybean meal futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy M2509 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans can short M2509 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3. Market Data Futures Prices - The closing prices and daily changes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts are as follows: Soybean meal 01 closed at 3116, up 12 (0.39%); Soybean meal 05 at 2769, up 9 (0.33%); Soybean meal 09 at 3095, up 9 (0.29%); Rapeseed meal 01 at 2444, up 7 (0.29%); Rapeseed meal 05 at 2383, up 6 (0.25%); Rapeseed meal 09 at 2758, up 22 (0.8%) [7][9]. Spreads - The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the basis and spot spreads, are presented in the report. For example, the M01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 347, up 3 [10]. Import Costs and Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4766.8495 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 8.7627 and a weekly decrease of 0.004. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 173.8811 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40.4599 and a weekly increase of 0.9124. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed is also provided [11].

南华期货硅产业链企业风险管理日报 2025年07月22日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 工业硅&多晶硅期货价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 日涨跌 | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | 日涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 宽幅震荡 | 40.8% | 1.61% | 96.8% | 0.0% | | 多晶硅主力合约 | 宽幅震荡 | 47.86% | 3.38% | 85.40% | 3.8% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 工业硅&多晶硅风险管理策略建议 | 行 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 为 导 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | | 向 | | | | | | | 库 | | 为了防止存货减值，根据企业库存情况，做空期货来锁定利 | ...

市场回顾 今日股指继续走强，以沪深300指数为例，收盘上涨。从资金面来看，两市成交额上涨1930.58亿元。期指均 放量上涨。 重要资讯 1. 人社部：持续推动扩大基本养老保险基金委托投资规模 核心观点 股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年7月22日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 连涨，沪深300、中证500均创年内新高 如我们昨日预期，今日股指延续上涨，沪深300指数、中证500指数皆创年内新高，两市成交额大幅放量接近 1.9万亿元。受反内卷政策以及雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工消息影响，昨日领涨的水利、钢铁、建材板块今 日继续领涨。从期货指标来看，今日各品种期指成交量加权基差均上涨，持仓量放量，表明多头入场。当前 消息面相对平淡，各项情绪指标均向好的情况下，股指预计延续走强。 策略推荐 多头持仓观望 股指日报期指市场观察 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | 1.12 | 0.90 | 1.15 | 0.66 | | 成交量（万手 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The external market has found support at key integer levels, but Sino - US talks and weather conditions can no longer drive the market to rebound. Future focus should be on China's purchases and weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean complex is expected to continue the positive spread logic, and the rapeseed complex is strong due to short - term warehouse receipt supply - demand mismatch. Short - term contradictions cannot drive the market to strengthen significantly, and the long - term supply - demand gap is the key for layout [4]. - Positive factors include the expectation of Sino - US talks supporting the US soybean market, strong long - term bullish sentiment under weather speculation, and Brazilian export premiums supporting long - term contract prices from the cost side [5]. - Negative factors involve supply pressure on the spot side mainly reflected in the basis, the need to monitor the departure of long - position funds in the near - term contracts for futures - spot convergence, expected soybean arrivals with a gap after December, and the impact of the Indian rapeseed meal issue and potential Sino - Canadian and Sino - Australian talks on the market [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 14.1%. For rapeseed meal, the price range is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1642 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.2531 [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Traders**: With high protein inventory and concerns about falling meal prices, they are advised to short 25% of soybean meal futures (M2509) at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - **Feed Mills**: With low regular inventory and the need to purchase based on orders, they are recommended to buy 50% of soybean meal futures (M2509) at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - **Oil Mills**: Worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices, they should short 50% of soybean meal futures (M2509) at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover costs [3]. 3.2 Futures Prices - **Soybean Meal**: The closing prices of soybean meal 01, 05, and 09 are 3104, 2760, and 3086 respectively, with daily increases of 17, 8, and 17, and daily growth rates of 0.55%, 0.29%, and 0.55% [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The closing prices of rapeseed meal 01, 05, and 09 are 2437, 2377, and 2736 respectively, with daily increases of 22, 11, and 9, and daily growth rates of 0.91%, 0.46%, and 0.33% [7][9]. - **Others**: CBOT yellow soybeans closed at 1026.75 with no change, and the offshore RMB was at 7.1714, down 0.0071 or 0.1% [9]. 3.3 Spreads - **Soybean Meal Spreads**: M01 - 05 is 344 (up 9), M05 - 09 is - 326 (down 9), M09 - 01 is - 18 (unchanged). The soybean meal spot price in Rizhao is 2900 (unchanged), and the basis is - 186 (down 17) [10]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spreads**: RM01 - 05 is 60 (up 11), RM05 - 09 is - 359 (up 2), RM09 - 01 is 299 (down 13). The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian is 2590 (down 84), and the basis is - 137 (down 89) [10]. - **Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Spreads**: The spot spread is 310 (unchanged), and the futures spread is 350 (up 8) [10]. 3.4 Import Costs and Pressing Profits - **Import Costs**: The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4770.043 yuan/ton (up 51.5218), and that of Brazilian soybeans is 3927.66 yuan/ton (down 29.05) [11]. - **Profits**: The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 853.473 yuan/ton (up 51.5218), the import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 133.4212 yuan/ton (down 20.3779), the import profit of Canadian rapeseed on the futures market is 301 yuan/ton (down 4), and the import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the spot market is 292 yuan/ton (down 8) [11].

国债期货日报 2025年7月22日 大宗商品大幅反弹 观点：交易盘暂时观望 南华研究院 高翔（Z0016413） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 国债期货开盘偏强窄幅震荡，盘中跳水翻绿，随着风险资产走强价格持续下跌，午后二次跳水，尾盘明显收 跌。结构上短端偏强，TS09下跌0.008。10Y活跃券250011当日上行1.2bp，接近1.69%。流动性进一步改 善，资金利率回到1.3%的关键水平，开盘前隔夜匿名1.3%超过1400亿大额，DR001同样下行回到1.3%附 近。 日内消息： 1.俄罗斯总统新闻秘书、克宫发言人佩斯科夫表示，俄罗斯总统普京将于9月访华，出席中国人民抗日战争暨 世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年纪念活动，俄方正为此次访华行程做筹备。 行情研判： 当前风险资产强势，不光是权益市场内部轮动接力，同样体现在风险资产之间的先后上涨提供支撑，风险偏 好整体强势，加上国债期货价格下跌破位，交易盘短期建议暂时止损观望，等待重要会议后反内卷政策细节 全部落地。 TS主力：净基差与基差 source： wind,南华研究 元 TS净基差：主连 TS基差：主连 10/31 12/3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, China's economy showed strong performance with a GDP growth of 5.3%, but structural contradictions were prominent. Some industries had over - capacity and profit pressure, while others had supply shortages but low gross margins. The "anti - involution" policy aimed to address these issues by eliminating backward production capacity, optimizing the supply structure, and promoting the development of new productive forces, with a focus on the coordinated optimization of the entire industrial chain [2][3]. - In the short - term, the "anti - involution" policy expectations dominated the commodity market, leading to emotional price increases in black (steel), glass, soda ash and other varieties. In the medium - term, it was necessary to observe the matching degree between policy implementation and downstream demand, and be vigilant against price corrections due to "more significant reduction in demand than supply". In the long - term, only through the coordinated optimization of the entire industrial chain could prices achieve sustainable and healthy growth [3]. Summary by Relevant Chapters 1. "Anti - involution" Policy Proposal 1.1 Macro Background - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP growth was strong, with a second - quarter year - on - year growth of 5.2% and a cumulative growth of 5.3% in the first half, easing the growth pressure in the second half. However, from the perspective of the "troika", economic support was somewhat special. Consumption growth relied on the "trade - in" policy, investment was mainly supported by infrastructure investment, and exports were strong due to the "rush to export" and "rush to re - export" effects in the first half. - In the second half, economic operation still faced pressures. Residents' demand was weak, and the gap between macro - data and micro - perception widened. Enterprise profit growth was still in the negative range, and over - capacity in some industries restricted their healthy development [7]. 1.2 "Anti - involution" Policy Introduction - On the 18th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a new round of stable growth work plans for ten key industries, including steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity. Since July, the Nanhua Commodity Index has rebounded, with significant increases in sub - sector indices. This "anti - involution" industrial policy adjustment was different from the 2016 "supply - side reform" and had a more profound impact on the domestic economy and the commodity market [10][11]. 2. Analysis of Industrial "Involution" Characteristics 2.1 Supply Perspective - In terms of industrial added - value, except for the non - metallic mineral products industry in raw material manufacturing, the growth rates of industries such as food manufacturing, electrical machinery, automobile manufacturing, and electronic communication were not low compared to the overall industrial level. However, their capacity utilization rates were at historical lows, indicating a need for policy - driven elimination of over - capacity [16]. - Regarding capacity utilization, the capacity utilization rates of some mid - stream manufacturing and downstream consumption industries were at historical lows. Industries such as food manufacturing, electrical machinery, automobile manufacturing, and non - metallic minerals had capacity utilization rates below the 10th percentile of historical levels, and the electronic communication industry was at the 20th percentile. These industries showed no significant improvement in 2025 [17]. - Some industries with low capacity utilization but relatively high production growth were not all backward production capacity. Industries such as electrical machinery, automobile manufacturing, and electronic communication were closely related to new productive forces. The decline in capacity utilization was due to excessive investment in the short - term, resulting in temporary over - capacity [21]. 2.2 Demand Perspective - China's manufacturing investment growth rate has gone through stages of "high - speed growth - stable operation - continuous decline - intensified fluctuations". The industry has experienced both the expansion stage driven by factors such as the "WTO dividend" and the challenges of reduced profits, capital outflow, and capacity transfer due to intensified trade frictions [22]. - In 2020, the growth rates of manufacturing fixed - asset investment and private manufacturing fixed - asset investment rebounded, mainly due to the accelerated investment in high - tech industries. The profitability of industrial enterprises improved, with 61% of industries seeing profit growth or narrowing declines. However, from 2020 - 2022, most industries declined, and the real estate industry's contribution to GDP turned negative [23][26]. 2.3 Price Perspective - Excessive supply in the short - term could solve the supply - demand contradiction, but when demand declined, profit reduction would be transmitted from downstream to upstream industries, affecting the entire industry. - In 2025, the profit pressure index of industrial enterprises improved. The profit pressure indices of the food and chemical industries improved, while those of the black metallurgy, textile, and paper industries declined. Industries such as general equipment, special equipment, and automobile manufacturing also faced increased cost pressure and thinner profits [31]. 3. Analysis of the Impact of "Anti - involution" on Commodities 3.1 Impact on the Steel Market - The steel industry has over - capacity, but the feasibility of eliminating backward production capacity is low as much of the current capacity has been optimized. - The impact of "anti - involution" on the steel market has different logics. If it is implemented only in downstream industries, it may reduce steel demand; if it is implemented only in the steel industry, it may boost steel prices in the short - term but needs to consider downstream acceptance; if it is implemented simultaneously in the steel and downstream industries, the impact depends on the matching of supply and demand reduction [38][40][41]. - In the short - term, market sentiment is high, and steel demand shows a "not - so - off - season" feature. In the long - term, the implementation and effect of the policy are unclear, and demand support is crucial for price sustainability [42][43]. 3.2 Impact on the "One Glass and Two Alkalis" Market - **Glass Market**: After a round of supply clearance in the second half of last year, the daily melting capacity of glass in the first half of 2025 was around 158,000 tons. The market was in a weak balance or weak surplus, with relatively high upstream inventories. If the "capacity reduction" policy is implemented and combined with mid - and downstream replenishment, glass prices may have high elasticity. In the short - term, market sentiment is driving price increases [45][51]. - **Soda Ash Market**: The soda ash market is in a long - term surplus situation, with high upstream and mid - stream inventories. Although the "anti - involution" and capacity - elimination expectations are rising, the impact is limited in the long - term due to new capacity investments and weakening demand. In the short - term, the market is driven by sentiment [52][53]. - **Caustic Soda Market**: Caustic soda is in a state of strong current reality but weak long - term expectations. The current spot is strong, but new capacity and maintenance restarts may increase supply pressure in the future. The market is waiting for clearer policy guidance [55][56]. 3.3 Impact on the Non - ferrous Metals Market - **Mining End**: The zinc ore market is expected to be loose in the second half of the year, while the lead market has cost support from tight supply of recycled lead. - **Smelting End**: Zinc and aluminum have optimized their production capacities. The overall开工率 of refined zinc has been around 90%, and the production capacity of refined zinc in China is estimated to be about 7.3 million tons. The production capacity of lead is increasing, with a significant difference in capacity utilization between primary lead and recycled lead. The electrolytic aluminum industry is in a tight balance, and the alumina industry has over - capacity [58][61][62]. - Overall, the "anti - involution" policy may attract funds and have a greater impact on non - ferrous metal prices. The prices of copper and aluminum may be slightly stronger, and alumina may have its own market due to factors such as tight spot supply and potential soft - squeeze risks [65]. 3.4 Impact on the Olefin Industry Chain - The average operating rate of ethylene and its downstream products has declined significantly in the past decade, and the olefin industry chain needs to eliminate old production capacity. However, the proportion of old devices in the olefin industry chain is not large, and most of them are in large enterprises or profitable coal - chemical enterprises. The actual impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the olefin industry chain is limited, and the current impact on the chemical product market is mainly sentiment - driven [66][67].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The medium - to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish. For short - term, the resistance levels of London gold are raised to 3400, 3450, and 3500, with support at 3375; London silver has support around 38.4 and resistance in the 39 area. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - On Monday, the precious metals market rose strongly. The decline of the US dollar index and the 10Y US Treasury yield favored the valuation of precious metals. The surrounding US stocks, Bitcoin, and crude oil fluctuated, while the South China Non - ferrous Metals rose. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3410.3 per ounce, up 1.55%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $39.24 per ounce, up 2.02%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was at 781.7 yuan per gram, up 0.82%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9271 yuan per kilogram, up 0.93%. The approaching August 1 tariff deadline and slow US trade negotiation progress increased market risk - aversion sentiment in late July, which was beneficial to precious metals. The government's continuous intervention in the Fed may lead to a shift from hawkish to dovish under the Fed's independence principle, also favoring precious metals. Additionally, Japan's ruling coalition suffered a historic defeat in the Senate election [1]. 2. Interest Rate Cut Expectation and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly increased. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 41.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 57.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 1.5%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 19.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 48.7%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 31.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 0.8%. In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 3.43 tons to 947.06 tons daily; the iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 347.58 tons to 15005.79 tons daily, reaching the highest level since February 2023. In terms of inventory, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 6.6 tons to 1204.5 tons daily; as of the week ending July 11, SGX silver inventory increased by 7.3 tons to 1327.2 tons weekly [2]. 3. This Week's Focus - This week's data is generally light. Pay attention to the preliminary values of the US July S&P manufacturing and services PMIs and the weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday evening. In terms of events, at 20:30 on Tuesday, Fed Chairman Powell will give a welcome speech at a regulatory meeting. At 01:00 on Wednesday, Fed Governor Bowman will host a fireside chat session at a large - bank capital framework meeting hosted by the Fed. At 20:15 on Thursday, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision, followed by a monetary policy press conference by ECB President Lagarde. During the week, US President Trump will give a speech at an event named "Winning the AI Race" [3]. 4. Precious Metals Spot and Futures Prices - SHFE gold main - continuous contract is at 781.7 yuan per gram, up 4.68 yuan or 0.6%; SGX gold TD is at 777 yuan per gram, up 3.63 yuan or 0.47%; CME gold main contract is at $3410.3 per ounce, up $54.8 or 1.63%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract is at 9271 yuan per kilogram, down 2 yuan or - 0.02%; SGX silver TD is at 9226 yuan per kilogram, up 15 yuan or 0.16%; CME silver main contract is at $39.24 per ounce, up $0.815 or 2.12%. SHFE - TD gold is at 4.7 yuan per gram, up 1.05 yuan or 28.77%; SHFE - TD silver is at 45 yuan per kilogram, down 17 yuan or 44.19%. The CME gold - silver ratio is 86.9088, down 0.4172 or - 0.48% [5]. 5. Inventory and Holdings - SHFE gold inventory is 28857 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory is 1156.8058 tons, unchanged; SHFE gold holdings are 211239 lots, up 8952 lots or 4.43%; SPDR gold holdings are 947.06 tons, up 3.43 tons or 0.36%. SHFE silver inventory is 1204.466 tons, down 6.61 tons or - 0.55%; CME silver inventory is 15478.5188 tons, up 12.4918 tons or 0.08%; SGX silver inventory is 1327.23 tons, up 7.335 tons or 0.56%; SHFE silver holdings are 467534 lots, down 12142 lots or - 2.53%; SLV silver holdings are 15005.786237 tons, up 347.575 tons or 2.37% [13]. 6. Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The US dollar index is 97.8575, down 0.6137 or - 0.62%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is 7.1714, down 0.0071 or - 0.1%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 44342.19 points, down 142.3 points or - 0.32%; WTI crude oil spot is $67.34 per barrel, down $0.2 or - 0.3%; LmeS copper 03 is $9794.5 per ton, up $116.5 or 1.2%; the 10Y US Treasury yield is 4.44%, down 0.03 or - 0.67%; the 10Y US real interest rate is 1.98, down 0.05 or - 2.46%; the 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread is 0.56, unchanged [18][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Tin prices have risen passively, and there is still some pressure above [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 267,250 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.51%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.4% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concern about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concern about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2] 3.2 Factors Affecting Tin Prices 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations, and anti - involution benefiting the entire non - ferrous metal sector [4] 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Tariff policy fluctuations, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and gradually moving from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5][6] 3.3 South China's View - The rise of tin prices on Monday was mainly due to the impact of anti - involution on the entire non - ferrous sector, but the fundamentals of tin itself have not changed. In the short term, considering the imminent outflow of Burmese ore and no sign of further improvement in tin downstream demand, the view that the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support still holds [7] 3.4 Tin Futures and Spot Data 3.4.1 Futures Data (Daily) - The latest price of the Shanghai Tin main contract is 267,250 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai Tin continuous - one is 267,470 yuan/ton, also with no daily change. The Shanghai Tin continuous - three is 267,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME Tin 3M is 33,355 US dollars/ton, up 285 US dollars or 0.86%. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.96, up 0.04 or 0.51% [8][9] 3.4.2 Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 267,200 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan or 0.26%. The 1 tin premium is 500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or - 16.67%. The 40% tin concentrate is 253,500 yuan/ton, down 1200 yuan or - 0.47%. The 60% tin concentrate is 257,500 yuan/ton, down 1200 yuan or - 0.46%. The 60A solder bar in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 172,250 yuan/ton, down 1000 yuan or - 0.58%. The 63A solder bar in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 179,750 yuan/ton, down 1000 yuan or - 0.55%. The lead - free solder is 271,250 yuan/ton, down 1500 yuan or - 0.55% [16][17] 3.5 Tin Import Profit and Loss and Processing - The latest tin import profit and loss is - 16,228.79 yuan/ton, down 684.78 yuan or 4.41%. The 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [19] 3.6 Tin Inventory - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6817 tons, up 104 tons or 1.55%. The warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4524 tons, up 122 tons or 2.77%. The warehouse receipt quantity in Shanghai is 1412 tons, down 8 tons or - 0.56%. The total LME tin inventory is 1935 tons, down 100 tons or - 4.91% [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, the macro - atmosphere has been warm, leading to a strong rebound in the coking coal and coke futures market. Speculative demand has entered the market to lock in goods, tightening the spot liquidity. Coal enterprises have raised prices, pressuring coking profits. The second round of price increases by coking plants at the beginning of the week is likely to be implemented. - This week, iron ore prices rebounded strongly, shrinking the immediate steel profits, but the steel profits calculated based on raw material inventories are still expanding. Steel mills have little intention to voluntarily reduce hot metal production, resulting in strong procurement demand for coking coal and coke. - In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate strongly. In the long - term, the sharp rise in furnace materials poses a potential threat to steel mill profitability, and high hot metal production may not be sustainable. Steel billet export orders have declined significantly, and inventory accumulation in Tangshan has accelerated, which may trigger a negative feedback mechanism. - In terms of operations, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and not to chase high prices. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of the 9 - 1 reverse spread of coking coal and coke. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - **Coking Coal**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 850 - 1130, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. - **Coke**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 1450 - 1650, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13%. [3] 3.2 Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For inventory hedging, when the coke futures price is significantly higher than the spot price and the delivery profit is considerable, it is recommended to short J2509. The hedging ratio is 25% when entering the market at 1650 - 1700 and 50% at 1700 - 1750. [3] 3.3 Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - **Decrease in Inventory**: The inventory of rebar decreased by 897 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 293 tons, coking coal decreased by 500 hands, and silicon manganese decreased by 1177 sheets. - **Increase in Inventory**: The inventory of silicon iron increased by 200 sheets. - **No Change in Inventory**: The inventory of iron ore and coke remained unchanged. [3] 3.4 Core Contradiction - Short - term: The combination of speculative and rigid demand supports the prices of coking coal and coke, and the market may continue to fluctuate strongly. - Long - term: The strong rise of furnace materials threatens steel mill profits, and high hot metal production may not last. Steel billet export and inventory issues may trigger negative feedback. [4] 3.5利多解读 - The "Supply - side 2.0" has affected market sentiment, creating a positive market outlook. - Downstream steel mills have good profits, with a per - ton profit of over 100, and hot metal production in July is unlikely to decrease. - There is speculation about the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. [5] 3.6利空解读 - Coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production ahead of schedule. - The military parade on September 3 may affect steel production around Hebei. - The shipment of imported coal has increased, leading to greater pressure on future arrivals at ports. [6] 3.7 Coking Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Price Data - **Coking Coal**: The spot and futures prices, basis, and spreads have shown various changes. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread decreased by 0.5 compared to the previous day and 6.5 compared to the previous week. - **Coke**: Similar price, basis, and spread changes are observed. The coke 09 - 01 spread decreased by 6 compared to the previous day and 7 compared to the previous week. - **Other Ratios**: The coking profit, ore - coke ratio, screw - coke ratio, and carbon - coal ratio also changed. [6]

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 21, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Tin prices rose passively, and there is still some pressure above [3]. Key Points by Content 1. Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - **Price Volatility**: The latest closing price of tin is 267,250 yuan/ton, the monthly price range forecast is 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton, the current volatility is 14.08%, and the current volatility historical percentile is 25.1% [2]. - **Risk Management Suggestions**: - **Inventory Management**: For high - level finished product inventory and fear of price decline, sell 75% of Shanghai Tin main futures contracts at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of SN2509C275000 call options when volatility is appropriate [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low - level raw material inventory and fear of price increase, buy 50% of Shanghai Tin main futures contracts at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of SN2509P245000 put options when volatility is appropriate [2]. 2. Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy relaxation, semiconductor sector in expansion cycle, Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations, and anti - involution benefiting the entire non - ferrous metal sector [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Tariff policy fluctuation, inflow of Myanmar tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [5][6]. 3. Nanhua's View on Tin Prices - Tin prices are still in an overall oscillating trend recently. The macro - level US tariff policy change has limited impact on tin. In the short term, considering the imminent outflow of Myanmar ore and no signs of further improvement in downstream demand, the view that the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support still holds [7]. 4. Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data (Daily)**: - Shanghai Tin main contract: latest price 267,250 yuan/ton, daily increase of 2,710 yuan, daily increase rate of 1.02% [2][8]. - Shanghai Tin continuous - one contract: latest price 267,470 yuan/ton, daily increase of 2,840 yuan, daily increase rate of 1.07% [8]. - Shanghai Tin continuous - three contract: latest price 267,250 yuan/ton, daily increase of 2,900 yuan, daily increase rate of 1.1% [9]. - LME Tin 3M: latest price 33,355 US dollars/ton, daily increase of 285 US dollars, daily increase rate of 0.86% [9]. - Shanghai - London ratio: latest ratio 7.96, daily increase of 0.04, daily increase rate of 0.51% [9]. - **Spot Data (Weekly)**: - Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot: latest price 267,200 yuan/ton, weekly increase of 700 yuan, weekly increase rate of 0.26% [16]. - 1 tin premium: latest price 500 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 100 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 16.67% [16]. - 40% tin concentrate: latest price 253,500 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,200 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 0.47% [17]. - 60% tin concentrate: latest price 257,500 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,200 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 0.46% [17]. - Solder bar (60A) Shanghai Non - ferrous: latest price 172,250 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,000 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 0.58% [17]. - Solder bar (63A) Shanghai Non - ferrous: latest price 179,750 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,000 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 0.55% [17]. - Lead - free solder: latest price 271,250 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,500 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 0.55% [17]. 5. Tin Import and Processing Data - **Import Profit and Loss and Processing Fees (Daily)**: - Tin import profit and loss: latest price - 16,228.79 yuan/ton, daily decrease of 684.78 yuan, daily increase rate of 4.41% [19]. - 40% tin ore processing fee: latest price 12,200 yuan/ton, no change [19]. - 60% tin ore processing fee: latest price 10,550 yuan/ton, no change [19]. 6. Tin Inventory Data - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Inventory (Daily)**: - Total tin warehouse receipts: latest quantity 6,817 tons, daily increase of 104 tons, daily increase rate of 1.55% [23]. - Tin warehouse receipts in Guangdong: latest quantity 4,524 tons, daily increase of 122 tons, daily increase rate of 2.77% [23]. - Tin warehouse receipts in Shanghai: latest quantity 1,412 tons, daily decrease of 8 tons, daily decrease rate of - 0.56% [23]. - **LME Tin Inventory**: latest quantity 1,935 tons, daily decrease of 100 tons, daily decrease rate of - 4.91% [23].