Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][2]. Core Views - The company's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 11.077 billion yuan, an 8% year-on-year increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 7% to 1.047 billion yuan [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from inventory stocking for the Spring Festival in Q4, leading to marginal revenue improvement despite a significant profit decline in Q3 due to various short-term factors [1][2]. - The report highlights that the company is actively participating in market price competition, with a focus on high-growth products like "locked fresh" packaging and premium offerings [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.533 billion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 37% to 244 million yuan [1]. - The gross profit margin decreased by 2 percentage points to 19.93%, primarily due to price competition in certain product categories [1]. - The report projects the company's EPS for 2024-2026 to be 4.99, 5.79, and 6.61 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 15, and 13 times [2]. Market Strategy - The company continues to expand its market presence through localized R&D and channel development, particularly in the B-end market [1]. - The report notes that the sales of "locked fresh" products maintained a growth rate of 20% in Q3, with stable high margins [1]. - The company aims to achieve significant sales targets in new product categories, including a projected 300 million yuan in revenue from grilled sausages and 150 million yuan from beef and lamb rolls for the year [1]. Future Outlook - The report expresses confidence in the company's ability to meet its annual revenue targets, supported by government subsidies and seasonal demand from the Spring Festival [2]. - The company is expected to navigate through current challenges, with a focus on maintaining stable operations and adjusting its business strategy according to market trends [1].

来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所 业绩简评 公司披露三季报，前三季度实现营业收入 110.77 亿元，同比 +7.84%；归母净利润 10.47 亿元，同比-6.65%；扣非归母净利润 10.01 亿元，同比-2.46%。23Q3 实现营业收入 35.33 亿元，同比 +4.63%；归母净利润 2.44 亿元，同比-36.76%；扣非归母净利润 2.29 亿元，同比-30.90%。 经营分析 Q3 表现承压，速冻菜肴表现亮眼。前三季度速冻调制食品/速冻米 面 制 品 / 速 冻 菜 肴 制 品 / 速 冻 农 副 产 品 实现收 入 56.25/18.24/33.37/2.68 亿 元 ， 分 别 同 比 +13.88%/-2.06%/+7.34%/-20.87% ， 单 Q3 分 别 实现收入 17.92/5.33/11.29/0.78 亿元， 分 别 同 比 -0.12%/-9.49%/+24.1%/-0.83%。由于行业在消费偏弱的背景下竞 争激烈，公司部分产品对渠道进行让利，Q3 整体表现略有承压。 分渠道看，前三季度经销商/商超/特通直营/新零售/电商渠道分 别实现营业收入 90.91/6.02/7. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term profit pressure but is expected to improve in the future due to proactive adjustments in response to external demand and industry changes [5]. - The company has a diversified product and channel layout, with ongoing localization transformation, which supports its growth potential [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 11.077 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.047 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.65% year-on-year [3]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.533 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.63%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 244 million yuan, down 36.76% year-on-year [3]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 22.64%, with a decline in Q3 attributed to increased promotional discounts due to weak industry demand [4]. Product Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the revenue from frozen prepared foods was 1.792 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.12% year-on-year, while frozen dishes saw a significant increase of 24.12% to 1.128 billion yuan [4]. - The new retail channel showed remarkable growth, with revenue reaching 137 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 95.93% [4]. Channel Performance Summary - The company has expanded its new retail channels, with revenue from distributors, supermarkets, and e-commerce increasing by 3.23%, 15.07%, and 0.44% respectively in Q3 2024 [4]. - The total number of distributors increased by 105 to 2069 by the end of Q3 2024 [4]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 15.221 billion yuan, 16.601 billion yuan, and 17.961 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 8.4%, 9.1%, and 8.2% respectively [5][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.44 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight decrease of 2.6%, followed by growth of 14.4% and 9.9% in the subsequent years [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2][4]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 11.077 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.84%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.047 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.65% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 3.533 billion yuan, up 4.63% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 36.76% to 244 million yuan [2][3]. - The growth in frozen dishes and the rapid development of new retail channels are highlighted as key drivers for the company's performance [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue from various product categories was as follows: frozen prepared foods (5.625 billion yuan, +13.88%), frozen dishes (3.337 billion yuan, +7.34%), and frozen noodles and rice products (1.824 billion yuan, -2.06%) [3]. - In Q3 2024, the revenue from frozen prepared foods, frozen dishes, and frozen noodles was 1.792 billion yuan, 1.128 billion yuan, and 532 million yuan, respectively [3]. Regional Performance - Revenue growth was robust in regions such as South China, Southwest, and overseas markets, with year-on-year increases of 12.80%, 15.33%, and 35.77%, respectively, for the first three quarters of 2024 [3]. - In Q3 2024, the top revenue-generating regions were East China, North China, and Central China, with revenues of 1.456 billion yuan, 552 million yuan, and 440 million yuan, respectively [3]. Channel Performance - The company reported revenue from various sales channels: distributors (9.091 billion yuan, +9.24%), supermarkets (602 million yuan, +1.52%), and new retail channels (464 million yuan, +41.95%) for the first three quarters of 2024 [3]. - In Q3 2024, the new retail channel saw significant growth, primarily driven by contributions from Hema [3]. Profitability Metrics - In Q3 2024, the company's net profit margin was 6.92%, down 4.53 percentage points year-on-year, and the gross margin was 19.93%, down 2.04 percentage points [4]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the net profit margin was 9.45%, a decrease of 1.47 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.429 billion yuan, 1.628 billion yuan, and 1.827 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -3.30%, 13.88%, and 12.25% [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company has shown strong potential for new products, with operating pressures having peaked. The main business experienced steady growth in Q3, with certain product lines like frozen products and Kung Fu food showing significant growth. The company is expected to benefit from an earlier shipping schedule due to the upcoming 2025 Spring Festival [4][5] - The company has increased promotional policies and new product launches to address industry competition, which has led to fluctuations in profit margins. The gross margin and net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 were 22.64% and 9.45%, respectively, showing a year-on-year change of +0.58% and -1.47 percentage points [5][6] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 11.077 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.84%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.047 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.65% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, total revenue was 3.533 billion yuan, with a net profit of 244 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 36.76% year-on-year [3][4] - The revised revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 15.271 billion yuan, 16.745 billion yuan, and 18.247 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 8.73%, 9.65%, and 8.97%, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.413 billion yuan, 1.583 billion yuan, and 1.800 billion yuan for the same period [6][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the next three years are expected to be 4.82 yuan, 5.40 yuan, and 6.14 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18, 16, and 14 times [7][8]

安井食品（603345.SH） 食品加工 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 29 日 执业证书编号：S0740517030001 Email：fanjs@zts.com.cn 报告摘要 事件：公司发布 2024 年三季报。2024 年前 3 季度，公司实现营业收入 110.77 亿 元，同比+7.84%；归母净利润 10.47 亿元，同比-6.65%；扣非归母净利润 10.01 亿元，同比-2.46%；其中 3Q24 收入 35.33 亿元，同比+4.63%；归母净利润 2.44 亿元，同比-36.76%；扣非归母净利润 2.29 亿元，同比-30.90%。 | --- | --- | |-------------------|-----------| | | | | 总股本(百万股 ) | 293.29 | | | | | 流通股本 (百万股) | 293.29 | | 市价 (元) | 91.79 | | 市值(百万元 ) | 26,921.48 | | 流通市值(百万元 ) | 26,921.48 | 短期净利率承压，静待基本面反转 ——安井食品三季报点评 | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved a revenue of 11.077 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.84%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.65% to 1.047 billion yuan [6][8] - The report indicates that the company's gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 19.93%, a decrease of 2.04 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased expenses and a reduction in government subsidies [6][8] - The company is expected to have an EPS of 5.04 yuan in 2024, with a projected valuation range of 100.8 to 126 yuan based on a PE ratio of 20-25 times [8][11] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue was 3.533 billion yuan, up 4.63% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 36.76% to 244 million yuan [6] - The revenue from the dish products segment increased by 24.12% year-on-year, while the revenue from the new retail channel surged by 95.93% [7][8] - The company experienced a net increase of 105 distributors, bringing the total to 2,069 [8] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 15.251 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 1.479 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year [9][11] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 23.9% by 2026 [11][12] Market Performance - The company's stock price closed at 88.88 yuan on October 29, 2024, with a 52-week price range of 68.20 to 130.99 yuan [2] - The report notes a relative performance comparison with the market index, indicating a decline of 7.6% over the past month [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 11.077 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.84%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.047 billion yuan, down 6.65% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.533 billion yuan, up 4.63% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 36.76% to 244 million yuan [2] - The company continues to see strong performance in its fresh-lock packaging segment, with new products driving accelerated growth in prepared dishes [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects total revenue to reach 15.259 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.64% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.433 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a decrease of 3.04% year-on-year [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted at 4.89 yuan per share for 2024, with a P/E ratio of 18.79 [1] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 19.93%, down 2.04 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.92%, down 4.53 percentage points year-on-year [4] Product Performance Summary - The revenue performance by product in Q3 2024 showed a mixed trend: frozen prepared foods increased by 24.12%, while frozen noodle and rice products decreased by 9.49% [3] - The company maintains a leading advantage in the frozen hot pot ingredient market, with a clear strategy focusing on rice, hot pot ingredients, and grilled sausages [5]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [4] - Target price remains at 113.37 RMB [4] - Current price is 91.79 RMB [4] Core Views - Revenue growth remains steady in Q3 2024, but profitability fluctuates due to increased equity payment expenses and intensified promotions [5] - The company maintains strong competitive advantages in the long term and is expected to outperform competitors [7] - Lock-fresh products continue to grow rapidly, and new categories, channels, and customers are being actively developed [7] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue: 11.08 billion RMB, up 7.84% YoY [7] - Q1-Q3 2024 net profit: 1.05 billion RMB, down 6.65% YoY [7] - Q3 2024 revenue: 3.53 billion RMB, up 4.63% YoY [7] - Q3 2024 net profit: 244 million RMB, down 36.76% YoY [7] - Q3 2024 gross margin: 19.9%, down 2.0 pct YoY [7] Business Segments - Frozen prepared food revenue: -0.1% YoY in Q3 2024 [7] - Dishes revenue: +24.1% YoY in Q3 2024 [7] - Rice and noodle products revenue: -9.5% YoY in Q3 2024 [7] Channels - Distributor channel revenue: +3.2% YoY in Q3 2024 [7] - Special direct sales channel revenue: -12.4% YoY in Q3 2024 [7] - Supermarket channel revenue: +15.1% YoY in Q3 2024 [7] - New retail channel revenue: +95.9% YoY in Q3 2024 [7] - E-commerce channel revenue: +0.4% YoY in Q3 2024 [7] Financial Forecasts - 2024-2026 EPS forecasts adjusted to 5.06, 5.70, and 6.40 RMB, respectively [7] - 2024-2026 revenue growth expected at 8.5%, 11.1%, and 10.8% [12] - 2024-2026 net profit growth expected at 0.4%, 12.7%, and 12.3% [12] Valuation Metrics - 2024 PE ratio: 18.15x [12] - 2024 PB ratio: 1.95x [14] - 2024 PS ratio: 1.77x [14] Historical Performance - 52-week stock price range: 68.93-129.22 RMB [8] - 1-month stock price increase: 2% [11] - 3-month stock price increase: 25% [11] - 12-month stock price decrease: 24% [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][7][9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue growth of 4.63% year-on-year in Q3 2024, with total revenue for the first three quarters reaching 11.077 billion yuan, a 7.84% increase year-on-year. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.65% to 1.047 billion yuan [1][4] - The company is experiencing good growth in its dish products, with a 24% year-on-year increase in Q3 2024, while other product categories like rice and noodle products saw declines [1][4] - The company is expanding its new retail channel, achieving a 96% year-on-year revenue growth in this segment [1][4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 3.533 billion yuan, a 4.63% increase year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 36.76% to 244 million yuan [1][4] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 decreased to 19.9%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to price declines [5] - The company expects improved sales performance in Q4 2024, driven by early stocking for the upcoming Spring Festival and the seasonal demand for hot pot products [5][7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 15.192 billion, 16.393 billion, and 17.532 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.2%, 7.9%, and 7.0% [7][8] - The forecasted net profit for the same period is 1.458 billion, 1.624 billion, and 1.751 billion yuan, with a slight decrease of 1.4% in 2024, followed by increases of 11.4% and 7.8% in 2025 and 2026 [7][8] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 4.97, 5.54, and 5.97 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18.5, 16.6, and 15.4 [7][8]