消息面上，9月28日，工业和信息化部等八部门印发《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026 年）》，其中提到，2025—2026年，有色金属行业增加值年均增长5%左右，十种有色金属产量年均增 长1.5%左右，铜、铝、锂等国内资源开发取得积极进展。国海证券认为，短期来看，美联储如期降 息，且仍有进一步降息预期；有色金属行业稳增长工作方案出台，提振行业情绪。下游铝加工环节开工 率仍在持续回升中，库存拐点基本出现，关注"金九银十"旺季机会。民生证券指出，美联储降息落地， 商品供给干扰频发，伴随美国财政货币双宽松，叠加国内"金九银十"旺季需求，工业金属价格有望继续 上行。 有色股早盘活跃，截至发稿，赣锋锂业（002460）(01772)涨6.01%，报39.5港元；中铝国际（601068） (02068)涨4.41%，报2.37港元；招金矿业(01818)涨4.02%，报30.52港元；洛阳钼业（603993）(03993)涨 3.44%，报14.45港元；中国铝业（601600）(02600)涨3.97%，报7.85港元；江西铜业（600362）股份 (00358)涨2.45%，报27.6港元。 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly the increase in the price of copper and aluminum, driven by supply disruptions and demand recovery [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal ETF showed a stable performance with a 1.5% increase in price and a transaction volume of 1.4755 million yuan, bringing the fund's total size to 303 million yuan [1] - Key stocks such as Baiyin Nonferrous, Guiyan Platinum, and Xingye Silver Tin saw significant gains of 3.6%, 3.23%, and 2.92% respectively, while Shenghe Resources experienced a decline of 1.41% [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The Grasberg copper mine, the second largest globally, has halted production due to an accident, leading Freeport to project a significant decrease in copper sales by Q4 2025 and a potential 35% drop in production in 2026, exacerbating supply tightness [1] - The aluminum sector is witnessing a positive trend with successful technological advancements in aluminum alloy materials for automotive applications, recognized by high-end clients like BMW and Mercedes, which is expected to drive industry transformation [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - Tianfeng Securities indicates a bullish sentiment in the copper market, with prices expected to continue rising due to supply-demand dynamics and a favorable outlook for aluminum prices supported by inventory reductions and seasonal demand [1][2] - The cobalt sector is facing increased prices due to export bans and quota policies from the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to a tightening of raw material supply [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [7] Core Insights - The second round of interest rate cuts has begun, similar to the period from April to June 2020, highlighting the importance of the silver-gold ratio recovery and the elasticity of silver [2][4] - Inflation data met expectations while consumer confidence hit a new low, increasing the probability of interest rate cuts [4] - In the base metals sector, while the interest rate cut benefits are being realized, concerns about natural demand have led to a decline in industrial metals, except for copper, which saw price increases due to supply disruptions [4][5] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the recovery of the silver-gold ratio and the potential for silver to gain elasticity as inflation expectations rise [4] - It suggests that during the initial phase of the interest rate cut cycle, gold prices are expected to continue a volatile upward trend, with a 90% probability of a rate cut in October and a 65% probability in December [4] - Recommendations include increasing allocations to gold stocks in anticipation of a quarterly resonance in price, valuation, and style [4][5] Industrial Metals - The report notes that copper prices have surged due to supply shocks, particularly from the Grasberg copper mine accident, which is expected to impact sales by nearly 200,000 tons by Q4 2025 and reduce production by 270,000 tons in 2026 [4][5] - Overall, industrial metals have seen a decline, but copper has risen by 3.2% on the SHFE and 2.1% on the LME due to supply constraints [4][22] Strategic Metals - The report highlights the long-term bullish outlook for cobalt prices due to the implementation of an export quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which will lead to a global cobalt market shortage from 2025 to 2027 [5] - It also discusses the strategic importance of rare earths and tungsten, with a focus on the increasing demand and price support for rare earth materials [5] Market Performance - The report indicates that the metal materials and mining sector has outperformed the broader market, with a 2.60% increase compared to a 0.21% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [13][16] - Specific stocks in the copper and aluminum sectors are highlighted for their growth potential, with recommendations for companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining [5][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the metals and new materials industry, highlighting strong performance in various segments [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that supply disruptions continue to drive metal prices higher, with significant increases observed in copper and precious metals [3][10]. - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals index has outperformed the broader market, with a year-to-date increase of 56.38%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 40.74 percentage points [4][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued price increases in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, due to central bank purchasing trends and macroeconomic factors [3][19]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.06%, and the CSI 300 Index gained 1.07% [4]. - The non-ferrous metals index saw a weekly increase of 3.52%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 2.46 percentage points [6][8]. - Precious metals experienced a notable rise, with gold prices increasing by 1.89% and silver by 6.92% [3][15]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals showed varied price movements, with copper prices up by 8.57% and aluminum down by 1.79% [3][10]. - Year-to-date performance for various metals includes copper up 72.50%, precious metals up 67.52%, and energy metals up 56.65% [10][15]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Copper supply is expected to face disruptions due to incidents affecting major mines, with a projected 35% reduction in output from Freeport's Grasberg mine in 2026 [3][31]. - The report notes a decrease in domestic copper inventories, with social inventory at 140,000 tons, down by 9,000 tons [3][31]. - The aluminum sector is seeing increased downstream processing activity, with operating rates rising to 63% [3][31]. Key Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable supply-demand dynamics in the new energy manufacturing sector, recommending firms such as Huafeng Aluminum and Yatai Technology [3][10]. - For precious metals, companies like Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the ongoing market trends [3][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics for key companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating a range of price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and price-to-book (PB) ratios for various firms [17][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the metals and new materials industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights ongoing supply disruptions leading to continuous increases in metal prices, particularly in copper and precious metals [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the non-ferrous metals index, which has outperformed the broader market indices significantly [4][10]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.06%. The non-ferrous metals index surged by 3.52%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.46 percentage points [3][4]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has increased by 56.38%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 40.74 percentage points [8]. Price Changes - Industrial and precious metals saw varied price changes, with copper increasing by 8.57% and gold prices rising by 1.89% [3][10]. - The report notes significant price increases in energy materials, particularly in cobalt, which rose by 14.23% [3][10]. Key Metal Insights - **Copper**: The report indicates a reduction in domestic social inventory by 0.9 million tons, with a current total of 140,000 tons. Supply disruptions from Freeport's Grasberg mine are expected to reduce global copper supply by approximately 2.2% [3][35]. - **Aluminum**: The report notes an increase in downstream processing enterprise operating rates, with a current operating rate of 63.00%. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has decreased by 3.30 million tons [3][47]. - **Steel**: The report highlights an increase in steel production and a decrease in steel inventory, with a focus on monitoring supply adjustments and export demand [3][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable supply-demand dynamics in the new energy manufacturing sector, recommending stocks such as Huafeng Aluminum and Asia-Pacific Technology [3][10]. - For precious metals, the report recommends companies like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold, citing their potential for valuation recovery [3][10]. Company Valuations - The report provides detailed valuations for key companies in the metals sector, indicating a range of price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and price-to-book (PB) ratios for various firms [20][21].

Group 1: Metal Sector - Zijin Mining's net profit forecast for 2025 is 475 million CNY, with a PE ratio of 15.46[12] - Luoyang Molybdenum's net profit forecast for 2025 is 168.65 million CNY, with a PE ratio of 17.35[12] - The copper production of Zijin Mining is expected to increase by 7% to 115,000 tons in 2025[20] Group 2: Chemical Sector - Wanhua Chemical's net profit forecast for 2025 is 141.75 million CNY, with a PE ratio of 0.00[12] - Longbai Group's net profit forecast for 2025 is 23.01 million CNY, with a PE ratio of 19.75[12] - The MDI market is expected to improve as supply and demand conditions stabilize[48] Group 3: Transportation Sector - China Merchants Highway's net profit forecast for 2025 is 55.01 million CNY, with a PE ratio of 12.10[12] - Haitong Development's net profit forecast for 2025 is 4.43 million CNY, with a PE ratio of 18.87[12] Group 4: Construction Sector - Sichuan Road and Bridge's net profit forecast for 2025 is 82.86 million CNY, with a PE ratio of 8.79[12] - Honglu Steel Structure's net profit forecast for 2025 is 7.96 million CNY, with a PE ratio of 15.35[12]

格隆汇9月28日｜据Choice数据，剔除新股和次新股，周五A股市场共有52家上市公司盘中股价创出历 史新高。这52家公司分别是：紫金矿业、阳光电源、洛阳钼业、赛力斯、华虹公司、ST华通、徐工机 械、浪潮信息、华工科技、晶合集成、杰瑞股份、华海清科、兴业银锡、科博达、科华数据、安集科 技、中科飞测、剑桥科技、纽威股份、电气风电、宁波华翔、北方铜业、华建集团、聚辰股份、应流股 份、精达股份、聚和材料、汇成股份、美湖股份、隆盛科技、菲林格尔、新坐标、*ST宇顺、统联精 密、赛微微电、亚翔集成、优优绿能、捷邦科技、*ST亚振、合锻智能、易德龙、和远气体、锦华新 材、金马游乐、智洋创新、唯特偶、品茗科技、佰奥智能、埃科光电、征和工业、太龙股份、通源环 境。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including 山金国际, 赤峰黄金, 洛阳钼业, 中国宏桥, and 中钨高新 [3]. Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are trading around interest rate cuts, with silver showing potential for a short squeeze due to low inventory levels and continued inflows into ETFs [1][33]. - Industrial metals like copper are supported by production cuts at the Grasberg mine and a reduction in global copper supply, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate as the market awaits demand recovery [1][33]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are experiencing active trading ahead of the holiday, with expectations of strong supply growth in the fourth quarter [1][33]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver continue to trade based on interest rate expectations, with silver's strong performance linked to low inventory levels and ETF inflows [1][33]. - The U.S. core PCE price index for August recorded a year-on-year rate of 2.9%, aligning with expectations and reducing concerns about interest rate cuts [1][33]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by production cuts at the Grasberg mine, with a projected reduction of over 500,000 tons in global copper supply over the next 12 to 15 months [1][33]. - Aluminum supply is increasing as production capacity is restored, but prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [1][33]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are stable, with active trading as companies prepare for the holiday season, and supply expectations remain strong for the fourth quarter [1][33]. - The report notes a slight increase in lithium carbonate production, with inventory levels decreasing [1][33]. Key Companies to Watch - The report highlights several companies to monitor, including 兴业银锡, 盛达资源, 万国黄金集团, 中金黄金, 紫金矿业, 山东黄金, 赤峰黄金, 银泰黄金, 招金矿业, 洛阳钼业, 明泰铝业, and others [1][3].

Core Viewpoint - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has extended its cobalt export ban until October 15, leading to a significant increase in cobalt prices, which have risen nearly 40% this year [1][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The DRC's cobalt production accounts for 76% of global supply, and the extension of the export ban is expected to reduce cobalt supply by approximately 141,600 tons during the ban period, nearly half of the global cobalt production in 2024 [3][5]. - Cobalt prices have increased from $14 per pound at the beginning of the year to $19.5 per pound as of September 24, reflecting a significant tightening of supply [4]. Industry Impact - Companies in the cobalt supply chain, such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, and Greeenmei, have seen their stock prices rise significantly, with Luoyang Molybdenum up 10.87%, Huayou Cobalt up 7.85%, and Greeenmei up 4.41% in the week leading up to September 25 [3][8]. - Analysts predict that the rising cobalt prices will lead to improved earnings for related companies, with Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price increasing over 115% this year and Huayou Cobalt's stock price increasing over 92% [8]. Future Outlook - The export quota policy is expected to create a global cobalt supply gap of over 300,000 tons in the next three years, with significant shortages anticipated in domestic cobalt supply by February next year [6][7]. - The demand for cobalt is expected to rise due to the increasing need for electric vehicles and other technologies, suggesting that cobalt prices may continue to rise [5][7]. Strategic Positioning - Greeenmei has positioned itself well in the market, with its cobalt recycling capabilities exceeding 350% of China's cobalt mining output, and its production in Indonesia showing significant growth [9]. - Analysts suggest that companies with strong resource reserves and production capabilities, particularly in Indonesia, will be better positioned to benefit from the evolving market dynamics [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [4][6][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that industrial metal prices are expected to continue rising due to supply disruptions and seasonal demand in China during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for energy metals like lithium and cobalt, driven by strong demand from the energy storage and electric vehicle sectors [3]. - Precious metals are anticipated to reach new highs due to increased safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][71]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by supply disruptions from the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, which has been shut down due to a mining accident, leading to a significant reduction in expected output [2][39]. - Aluminum demand is recovering as downstream processing companies increase their operating rates, with a notable rise in pre-holiday stockpiling [2][22]. - Zinc prices are fluctuating due to mixed signals from macroeconomic indicators and supply-demand dynamics, with a slight decrease in domestic consumption observed [45][46]. Energy Metals - The report notes that cobalt supply is tightening due to regulatory changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has implemented a quota system, leading to price increases [3]. - Lithium demand remains robust, particularly in the context of energy storage and electric vehicles, with expectations of a balanced supply-demand situation [3]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have surged, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions, with gold prices reaching historical highs [4][71]. - The report suggests that central bank purchases of gold and a weakening dollar will continue to support gold prices in the medium to long term [4]. Key Companies and Their Forecasts - Zijin Mining: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.21 CNY, with a PE ratio of 23, rated as "Buy" [4]. - Luoyang Molybdenum: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.63 CNY, with a PE ratio of 22, rated as "Buy" [4]. - Huayou Cobalt: EPS forecast for 2024A is 2.50 CNY, with a PE ratio of 23, rated as "Buy" [4].