Group 1 - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) has seen significant capital inflow, with 17 out of the last 20 trading days recording net inflows, totaling over 27 million yuan last week [1] - The ETF closely tracks the CSI Food and Beverage Index, which includes major companies in the beverage, packaged food, and meat sectors, with top holdings including Kweichow Moutai, Yili, and Wuliangye [2] - The Tianhong A500 ETF (159360) has also performed well, with a 0.58% increase and a trading volume exceeding 44 million yuan, indicating strong market interest [2] Group 2 - Kweichow Moutai is launching a new digital service for consumers to select production dates for their purchases of the Snake Year Moutai, enhancing customer engagement [3] - Various provinces, including Hunan, are distributing consumption vouchers totaling 100 million yuan to stimulate consumer spending in key sectors such as dining and fuel [3] - The upcoming Double 11 shopping festival on Tmall has shown promising early results, with significant sales figures indicating strong consumer interest [3] Group 3 - The food and beverage index has experienced a recovery in early October, with snacks, beer, and health products leading the gains, suggesting a potential continuation of this trend [4] - The market is expected to focus on Q3 earnings reports, with companies in the new consumption sector likely to show strong performance [4] - Looking ahead to Q4 2025, there are two key areas of focus: the year-end valuation shift and the potential for cyclical recovery as PPI improvements begin to affect CPI [4]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market showed a collective increase on October 20, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.69% to 3866.09 points, indicating positive market sentiment and performance in various sectors, particularly the liquor industry [1] Industry Summary - The liquor sector closed at 2272.85 points, up by 0.6%, with 14 liquor stocks experiencing gains [1] - Major liquor companies showed mixed performance: Kweichow Moutai closed at 1460.79 CNY per share, up by 0.40%; Wuliangye closed at 120.73 CNY per share, down by 0.28%; Shanxi Fenjiu closed at 192.60 CNY per share, down by 1.68%; Luzhou Laojiao closed at 133.70 CNY per share [1] Company Insights - According to a report from GF Securities, the progress of dealer payments suggests that most manufacturers are relaxing their payment requirements or no longer enforcing mandatory payments, which is expected to benefit leading brands in the industry [1]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Insights - The overall sales of liquor during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are expected to decline by 20%-30%, aligning with pre-festival expectations due to the impact of the "ban on alcohol" in May [2] - High-end liquor brands are showing resilience, while the mass market is under pressure, with a notable shift towards lower-priced products in certain regions [3] - The market is characterized by "overall pressure with regional differentiation," where high-end and regional leading brands perform better compared to mass-market products [3] - The price of high-end liquor is stabilizing after a decline, with notable brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showing recovery in prices [4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Sales during the double festival period are under pressure, with a slight recovery in terminal sales observed in September, but overall sales remain constrained [2] - Inventory levels among distributors are high due to sluggish sales, leading to cautious payment collection [2] Regional Analysis - Jiangsu: Stable sales in urban areas, but rural markets are struggling [3] - Henan: Lower-priced products are becoming the main sales drivers due to changing consumer perceptions [3] - Sichuan: Differentiated performance in urban and rural markets, with rural areas showing resilience [3] - Shandong: Sales are influenced by promotional activities, but overall market sentiment is weak [3] Pricing Trends - High-end liquor prices are stabilizing after a decline, with Moutai's price around 1760 yuan [4] - Strong brand power is crucial for performance, with brands like Jiu Gui and Jian Nan Chun showing better resilience [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that with the upcoming Q3 earnings disclosures, risks may be fully released, and the sector could see a recovery in sentiment [5] - Key investment lines include: 1. High elasticity stocks under policy expectations: Jiu Gui, She De, Shui Jing Fang, Lao Jiao, Hua Zhi [5] 2. Stocks benefiting from consumer recovery: Gu Jing Gong Jiu, Ying Jia, Jin Si Yuan [5] 3. Strong alpha stocks: Moutai, Fen Jiu [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights significant market volatility post-holiday, with technology stocks experiencing notable corrections while international gold prices reached historical highs [1] - There was a net inflow of over 60 billion yuan into the ETF market last week, with the top three attracting funds being SGE Gold 9999, Hang Seng Technology, and CSI Bank Index [1] - The food and beverage sector, particularly the food and beverage ETF (515170), saw a rare net inflow of 1.21 billion yuan last week, indicating strong investor interest in this segment [1] Group 2 - The current market sentiment is influenced by concerns over escalating trade tensions and renewed expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in October [1] - The "dumbbell strategy" is suggested for current market conditions, focusing on leading stocks in the food and beverage sector, which includes major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye [3] - The lowest fee gold ETF, Huaxia Gold (518850), is highlighted for its T+0 trading capability, appealing to investors seeking liquidity [4] Group 3 - The mid to long-term outlook suggests that 2026 could be a significant year for economic resonance between China and the U.S., enhancing the allocation value of cyclical sectors amid a recovering PPI backdrop [2] - The discussion around the "14th Five-Year Plan" starting on October 20 is expected to bring policy catalysts that could influence market dynamics, particularly in promoting domestic demand [1]

Group 1 - The establishment of Jinxiangyuan Huowu No. 5 (Shenzhen) Investment Partnership (Limited Partnership) with a registered capital of 191 million RMB is reported [1][2] - The main business scope of the partnership is to engage in investment activities using its own funds [1][2] - The partnership is funded by Sichuan Jinjue Investment Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Luzhou Laojiao Group Co., Ltd., among others [1][2] Group 2 - The partnership is registered in Nanshan District, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, with a business duration until October 17, 2025, with no fixed end date [2] - The main operating location is at China Resources Building, 2666 Keyuan South Road, Nanshan District, Shenzhen [2] - The partnership has multiple contributors, with Sichuan Jinjue Investment Co., Ltd. holding 57.59% of the shares, contributing 110 million RMB [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a correction last week, but certain stocks within the brand index showed resilience, indicating potential investment opportunities in sectors like electronics, new energy, new consumption, and real estate as uncertainties ease [1][4]. Market Performance - The market indices saw declines: Shanghai Composite Index down 1.47%, Shenzhen Component down 4.99%, ChiNext down 5.71%, and CSI 300 down 2.22%. The brand index fell 3.58% to 1956.62 points [2]. - Notable gainers in the brand index included Shanghai Jahwa up 9.42%, Changbai Mountain up 7.19%, and Darentang up 5.34%. Other stocks like Luzhou Laojiao and Yiling Pharmaceutical also saw gains exceeding 4% [2]. Stock Performance Since H2 - Since the beginning of the second half of the year, Zhongji Xuchuang has surged 156.40%, leading the gains, followed by Sunshine Power at 114.27%. Other significant performers include Lanke Technology and Yiwei Lithium Energy, both up over 60% [3]. Market Outlook - Looking ahead, the market is expected to maintain upward momentum as uncertainties gradually diminish. Liquidity is anticipated to remain supportive, with domestic interest rates low and overseas liquidity remaining loose, encouraging investment in Chinese equity assets [4][5]. - The current market environment is characterized by a shift in investment styles, with a focus on sectors that offer higher investment certainty, particularly in electronics, new energy, new consumption, and real estate [5].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry: Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) Key Points and Arguments 1. **Emerging Channels and Consumer Trends** The live streaming phenomenon at the Nanjing Sugar and Wine Fair highlights the penetration of new channels like instant retail in the baijiu industry. The popularity of light bottle liquor priced under 100 yuan indicates robust consumer spending and a trend towards consumption upgrades [1][3]. 2. **Performance During Mid-Autumn and National Day** The baijiu industry performed slightly better than expected during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays. Notably, the sales of Yanghe Jinshuiyuan exceeded company expectations, with significant year-on-year growth in sales volume and banquet sessions. However, the overall banquet sales growth was modest due to a decline in the number of bottles opened per banquet [4][5]. 3. **Consensus on Industry Bottoming** There is an increasing consensus that the baijiu industry has reached its bottom, but expectations for recovery remain cautious. Demand is currently affected by alcohol bans and economic downturns, while supply is entering a destocking phase. Moutai's prices have stabilized, and distributor inventories are low [6]. 4. **Price Trends and Distributor Conditions** Moutai's post-holiday prices exceeded expectations, with stable original box prices around 1,780 yuan. Distributors' inventory levels are healthy, with a turnover rate of about one month. In contrast, Wuliangye faces price inversion and subsidy pressures, leading to a challenging situation for both Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao [7][8]. 5. **Projected Performance for Q3 2025** For Q3 2025, Moutai is expected to maintain mid-to-high single-digit growth, while Wuliangye may see double-digit revenue growth but with larger profit margins. Luzhou Laojiao is also projected to achieve double-digit growth in both revenue and profit, while Fenjiu and Gujing Gongjiu are expected to decline significantly [9][10]. 6. **Future Outlook and Recommendations** The baijiu industry is currently at a fundamental bottom, with a potential adjustment period from Q2 to Q1 of the following year. The valuation appears attractive. Recommended stocks include leading brands like Moutai, Fenjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, and Jiansu Yuer, as well as dividend-paying companies like Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yanghe. Attention is also drawn to flexible stocks like Zhenjiu Lidu [10][11]. Industry: Beverage Key Points and Arguments 1. **Steady Growth in Beverage Sector** The beverage industry is experiencing steady growth in Q3 2025, with standout performances from tea drinks, traditional health waters, electrolyte waters, and coconut water. Companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Special Drink are seeing rapid revenue growth, with profit margins expected to improve [2][12]. 2. **Differentiated Performance of Major Brands** In Q3 2025, Master Kong benefited from price increases, while Uni-President faced challenges due to delivery subsidies. Master Kong's instant noodle business returned to low single-digit growth, while its beverage segment experienced a mid-single-digit decline [13][14]. 3. **Emerging Categories and Competitive Landscape** New categories such as tea drinks and health-oriented beverages are showing significant potential for growth. The competitive landscape is intensifying due to declining raw material prices and increased subsidies from delivery platforms [12][16]. 4. **Long-term Growth Potential** Companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Special Drink are recommended for their strong brand power and growth potential, with expectations for continued performance above industry averages in the coming years [15]. Industry: Dairy Products Key Points and Arguments 1. **Dairy Sector Challenges** The dairy sector is facing a decline in supply and weak downstream demand. The number of dairy cows has decreased, while milk prices have risen slightly. Companies like Yili are expected to see modest revenue growth, while Mengniu may experience a decline due to previous high bases [18]. 2. **Market Dynamics and Future Outlook** The overall dairy market is expected to stabilize in 2026, with potential improvements in competition dynamics as raw milk prices balance out. Companies like New Dairy, Mengniu, and Yili are seen as having certain investment value [18]. Industry: Snack and Frozen Food Key Points and Arguments 1. **Snack Industry Performance** The snack industry is developing steadily, with franchisees favoring larger stores. Despite a slight decline in average transaction prices, new product categories are expected to drive growth. Companies like Wancheng are projected to achieve significant revenue growth [19][20]. 2. **Frozen Food Sector Trends** The frozen food sector is experiencing flat performance, with slight revenue growth but ongoing profit pressures. Companies like Anjijia and Qianwei Central Kitchen are seeing modest revenue increases, while others like Baobi are benefiting from lower pork costs [22][23]. 3. **Future Growth Expectations** The snack sector is anticipated to perform better in 2026, with cost pressures easing and new channel opportunities emerging. Companies are encouraged to adapt to market changes and explore new distribution channels [21]. Industry: Beer Key Points and Arguments 1. **Beer Industry Performance** The beer industry is facing moderate demand, with on-premise channels underperforming. However, off-premise channels are showing resilience, with moderate sales growth. Companies like China Resources Beer and Qingdao Beer are expected to see slight revenue increases [24][25]. 2. **Cost and Profitability Trends** The cost of beer production is expected to stabilize, with key variables focusing on ASP (average selling price) increases and cost-saving measures. Companies with strong operational capabilities, such as China Resources Beer and Yanjing Beer, are recommended for investment [25][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [10][59]. Core Insights - The feedback from the recent Nanjing Autumn Sugar Fair was relatively flat, with major liquor companies showing low enthusiasm for participation. The focus is shifting towards consumer engagement through live streaming and other sales models [6][57]. - The white liquor sector is experiencing a demand bottoming phase, with inventory levels still relatively high. The report suggests focusing on high-dividend leaders like Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as flexible stocks that have corrected to appropriate levels [6][57]. - The consumer sector is rebounding, driven by market sentiment towards domestic demand policies amid U.S.-China tariff impacts. Companies in the snack food sector, such as Yanjin and Weidong, are benefiting from increased market penetration and revenue growth [7][58]. Summary by Sections Industry News - From January to August, the export value of Zunyi liquor increased by 776.17% year-on-year. In September, liquor prices fell by 1.3% year-on-year, and the Hubei liquor market reached a scale of 35 billion yuan [5][17][19]. Company News - Kweichow Moutai reported a significant recovery in terminal sales for its sauce-flavored liquor in September. Luzhou Laojiao held a 110th anniversary event, continuing to lead the vintage liquor market [19]. Key Company Feedback - The report highlights the performance of key companies, with a focus on their stock price movements and earnings forecasts. For instance, Kweichow Moutai's stock price is at 1455.00 yuan, with an EPS forecast of 68.64 for 2024 [60]. Industry Data Trends - The white liquor industry saw a cumulative production of 4.145 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 7.72% year-on-year, while industry revenue reached 796.4 billion yuan, an increase of 5.3% year-on-year [34][36]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with long-term value and high dividends in the white liquor sector, while also highlighting the potential in the snack food and beverage sectors due to changing consumer preferences and market dynamics [58][59].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47% this week, with only four industries showing gains, led by the banking and coal sectors, which rose by 4.89% and 4.17% respectively [1] - The food and beverage industry ranked third in terms of weekly gains [1] Fund Flow Analysis - Total net outflow of main funds from both markets reached 301.749 billion yuan this week, with only two industries experiencing net inflows: banking (24.19 billion yuan) and coal (2.67 billion yuan) [1] - The electronic industry saw the largest net outflow, totaling 70.079 billion yuan, followed by the power equipment sector with a net outflow of 41.692 billion yuan [1] Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector increased by 0.86% this week, despite a net outflow of 378 million yuan in main funds [3] - Within the food and beverage sector, 49 out of 124 stocks rose, with notable increases from Kweichow Moutai (11.08%), Miaokelando (8.52%), and Guifaxiang (6.90%) [3] - Conversely, 71 stocks declined, with Jinzi Ham, Yangyuan Beverage, and Zhuangyuan Pasture experiencing significant drops of 17.80%, 16.56%, and 14.06% respectively [3] Top Stocks in Food and Beverage - Kweichow Moutai led the net inflow with 680 million yuan, followed by Luzhou Laojiao (204 million yuan) and Wuliangye (198 million yuan) [3] - The top outflow stocks included Jinzi Ham (-186 million yuan), Yangyuan Beverage (-171 million yuan), and Zhuangyuan Pasture (-135 million yuan) [4]

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月19日 行情回顾：本周食品饮料（A 股和 H 股）累计上涨 0.66%，其中 A 股食品饮 料（申万食品饮料指数）上涨 0.85%，跑赢沪深 300 约 3.07pct，反映防御 性配置需求；H 股食品饮料（恒生港股通食品饮料）下跌 1.92%，跑输恒生 指数 0.54pct。本周食品饮料板块涨幅前五分别为会稽山(11.08%)、妙可蓝 多(8.52%)、桂发祥(6.90%)、晨光生物(6.50%)和金达威(5.36%)。本周投资 组合平均上涨 2.15%，跑赢食品饮料（申万）指数 1.31pct。 品类基本面延续分化，饮料＞食品＞酒类。（1）酒类。白酒：三季报预计 加速出清，关注政策催化，贵州茅台有望迎来重估。继续优先推荐战略复利 优势、产品增长抓手较多、渠道改革领先行业的泸州老窖；推荐飞天动销改 善、伴随流动性改善价值重估空间打开的贵州茅台。啤酒：行业库存良性， 静待需求回暖。继续优先推荐大单品快速增长、内部改革持续深化、业绩成 长性强的燕京啤酒，推荐啤酒业务竞争优势突出、估值逐步修复的华润啤酒。 （2）饮料。乳制品：需求平稳复苏，供给渐进出清，布局 2025 年供需改善 ...