Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 19.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.75 billion yuan, up 24.5% year-on-year [2] - The company maintains a strong domestic market presence, with significant growth in various product lines and regions, particularly in the high-end segment [2][4] - The company is focusing on improving marketing quality and channel management to sustain growth, especially in the face of macroeconomic pressures [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 19.07 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.5%, and a net profit of 4.75 billion yuan, reflecting a 24.5% increase [2] - In Q3 2024, revenue reached 5.26 billion yuan, growing 13.4% year-on-year, while net profit was 1.17 billion yuan, up 13.6% year-on-year [2] Product and Regional Performance - The company expects revenue growth of approximately 25% for its high-end products, with specific products like Gu 20 experiencing a slowdown due to inventory management [2] - The domestic market remains robust, with strong performance in products such as Gu 5, Gu 18, and Gu 16, while the expansion in the external market is cautious [2] Cost and Profitability - The company has improved efficiency in its cost structure, although net profit margins were slightly affected by tax fluctuations and increased competition [3] - In Q3 2024, the net profit margin increased by 0.05 percentage points year-on-year, driven by cost efficiency improvements, despite a decline in gross margin [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 5.7 billion, 6.7 billion, and 7.9 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17, 15, and 12 times [4] - The expected growth rates for net profit are 24%, 17%, and 19% for the respective years [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company, indicating expected relative performance between 10% and 20% over the next six months [3][11]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong revenue resilience with a 19.53% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, reaching 19.069 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 24.49% to 4.746 billion yuan [1]. - The gross margin improved by 0.67 percentage points to 79.71% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, despite a slight decline in the third quarter [2]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from its strategic focus on "nationalization and mid-to-high-end" products, alongside the deepening of its "Three Connections Project" [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 19.069 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.746 billion yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 4.700 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 19.53%, 24.49%, and 25.55% respectively [1]. - The third quarter alone saw a revenue of 5.263 billion yuan, a 13.36% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.174 billion yuan, up 13.60% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s gross margin for the third quarter was 77.87%, down 1.55 percentage points from the previous year, while the net profit margin was 23.14%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points [2]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 5.694 billion yuan, 6.745 billion yuan, and 7.745 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 24%, 18%, and 15% [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company's performance is in line with expectations, with profit growth slightly outpacing revenue growth. For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue reached 19.069 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.53%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.746 billion yuan, up 24.49% year-on-year [2] - The company is optimizing its investment efforts, with a slight adjustment in product structure. The gross margin and net margin for the first three quarters of 2024 were 79.71% and 25.68%, respectively, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.67 and 1.17 percentage points [2] - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence both within and outside its home province, with significant growth in premium products driven by local consumption upgrades [3] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - For Q1-Q3 2024, total revenue was 19.069 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.53%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.746 billion yuan, reflecting a 24.49% increase year-on-year. In Q3 alone, total revenue was 5.263 billion yuan, up 13.36%, and net profit was 1.174 billion yuan, an increase of 13.60% [2] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 5.344 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.56%, and 1.334 billion yuan for Q3, up 34.55% [2] Market Strategy - The company is leveraging its leading position in the home province while making significant strides in external markets, particularly in Jiangsu, Shandong, and Henan [3] - The product mix is being upgraded, with notable growth in products priced at 16 yuan and above, benefiting from local consumption trends [3] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 10.41, 11.98, and 13.72 yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18, 16, and 14 times for the respective years [4]

古井贡酒（000596.SZ）2024 年三季报点评 Q3 收入利润双位数 徽酒龙头显韧性 2024 年 11 月 01 日 ➢ 事件：公司于 10 月 30 日发布 2024 年三季报，24 年 Q1-3 公司累计实现 营 收 / 归 母 净 利 润 / 扣 非 后 归 母 净 利 润 190.69/47.46/47.00 亿 元 ， 同 比 +19.53%/+24.49%/+25.55%。其中单 24Q3 实现营收/归母净利润/扣非后归 母净利润 52.63/11.74/11.59 亿元，同比+13.36%/+13.60%/+14.52%。 ➢ 年份原浆腰部价位成为品牌增长主力，省外扩张阶段性受阻向省内收缩。产 品端：产品端基本盘年份原浆全价位带布局，受益于持续多年的品牌建设和消费 者培育，年内有望维持量价齐升态势。古 5 表现平稳，古 7 省外招商汇量，腰部 古 8/古 16 高基数下持续放量，古 20 年内降速或系适配的政商务场景缺失，新 品古 30 卡位千元价格带提前布局目标拔高品牌形象。区域上：公司全国化战略 以合肥为战略高地引领全省，并快速辐射江苏、河南、山东、河北、湖北、江西 等周边市场，目前 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gujing Gongjiu with a target price of 222.66 CNY, compared to the last closing price of 186.31 CNY [1][2]. Core Views - Gujing Gongjiu's performance in Q1-Q3 2024 met expectations, demonstrating resilience during industry adjustments. The company achieved a revenue of 19.069 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, and a net profit of 4.746 billion CNY, up 24.5% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company’s gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 79.71%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.67 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 25.68%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. - The report indicates that product structure continues to improve, with strong growth in specific products like Gu 8 and Gu 16, while Gu 20 faced a slowdown due to weak business demand [2][3]. Financial Summary - For Q3 2024, Gujing Gongjiu reported a revenue of 5.263 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, and a net profit of 1.173 billion CNY, up 13.6% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 10.68 CNY, 12.37 CNY, and 14.21 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17x, 15x, and 13x [2][3]. - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 19%, 14%, and 12% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 23%, 16%, and 15% for the same years [2][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Gujing Gongjiu is "Outperform the Market" [3][7]. Core Views - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue growth of 13.4% year-on-year, with a net profit growth of 13.6%. For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue reached 19.07 billion yuan, up 19.5% year-on-year, and net profit was 4.75 billion yuan, up 24.5% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company demonstrated resilience in the domestic market despite a challenging environment for liquor demand in Anhui province. The revenue growth is attributed to the stable demand for its main products priced around 200 yuan and the strong brand power of Gu 16, which has benefited from the upgrade in price points [5][6]. - The overall profitability remains stable, with a slight decrease in gross margin by 1.55 percentage points due to product structure pressure and increased promotional expenses during festive seasons [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 operating cash flow was 1.334 billion yuan, up 34.6% year-on-year, and sales cash receipts were 5.460 billion yuan, up 24.6% year-on-year, indicating strong cash flow performance [6][7]. - The company has adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026, now expecting revenues of 23.71 billion, 26.94 billion, and 30.37 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.1%, 13.6%, and 12.7% respectively [7][8]. - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 5.599 billion, 6.563 billion, and 7.656 billion yuan, with growth rates of 22.0%, 17.2%, and 16.7% respectively [7][8]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 17.6x for 2024 and 15.0x for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [7][9]. - The company maintains a strong market position with a total market capitalization of approximately 99.594 billion yuan [3]. Market Context - The report highlights the competitive landscape within the liquor industry, with Gujing Gongjiu maintaining a strong brand presence and pricing power in the domestic market [5][6]. - The overall trend in the industry suggests a gradual recovery in liquor consumption, with Gujing Gongjiu positioned to benefit from ongoing consumption upgrades in its domestic market [7].

证 券 研 究 报 告 谢谢谢谢谢寻寻寻 古井贡酒（000596）2024 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 动力充足，韧性凸显 目标价：300 元 事项： 公司发布 2024 年三季报，前三季度实现营收 190.7 亿，同增 19.5%；归母净利 润 47.5 亿，同增 24.5%；其中单 Q3 实现营收 52.6 亿，同增 13.4%；归母净利 润 11.7 亿，同增 13.6%，销售回款 54.6 亿，同增 24.6%，经营现金流量净额 13.3 亿，同增 34.6%，Q3 末合同负债 19.4 亿，环比 Q2 末降 2.8 亿。 评论： 业绩符合预期，报表具备韧性。公司单 Q3 营收同增 13.4%，环比降速，但仍 居酒类上市公司前列，报表韧性显现。判断系古 16 受益宴席升级及商务降档， 延续高增引领增长；古 7 费投加大叠加河北、河南、东北、西北等区域招商铺 货，提速明显贡献增量；古 8 基本盘强化增长，库存略有增加；古 5/献礼高费 投下亦实现正增长；古 20 省外延续调整，增速回落明显；老明光受益省内广 告资源倾斜，叠加规模起势，维持高增态势。分区域看，公司省内强化终端布 局，行业承压下持续抢占竞品 ...

股 票 研 究 ——古井贡酒 2024 年三季报点评 展现韧性，优势凸显 古井贡酒(000596) 食品饮料 [Table_Industry] /必需消费 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|-----------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 訾猛 ( 分析师 ) | 李耀 ( 分析师 ) | | | | | | | | 021-38676442 | 021-38675854 | | | | | | | | zimeng@gtjas.com | liyao022899@gtjas.com | | | | | | | 登记编号 | S0880513120002 | S0880520090001 | | | | | | 本报告导读： 2024Q3 公司收入表现符合预期，利润略超预期；得益于费率下行，公司盈 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][10]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q3 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 19.07 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, and a net profit of 4.75 billion RMB, up 24.5% year-on-year [4]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 23.9 billion RMB in 2024, 26.5 billion RMB in 2025, and 29.9 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 18.0%, 10.7%, and 13.2% respectively [3][4]. - The report highlights the company's strong brand recognition and operational resilience, particularly in its home market, while also noting the challenges faced in expanding outside its primary region [5]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecast: - 2022: Revenue of 16.71 billion RMB, net profit of 3.14 billion RMB - 2023: Revenue of 20.25 billion RMB, net profit of 4.59 billion RMB - 2024E: Revenue of 23.90 billion RMB, net profit of 5.67 billion RMB - 2025E: Revenue of 26.45 billion RMB, net profit of 6.50 billion RMB - 2026E: Revenue of 29.94 billion RMB, net profit of 7.68 billion RMB [3][4]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS) is projected to grow from 8.68 RMB in 2023 to 14.54 RMB in 2026, reflecting a strong upward trend [3][4]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 21.32% in 2023 to 24.43% in 2026, indicating enhanced profitability [3][4]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 26.81, projected to decrease to 12.82 by 2026, suggesting the stock may become more attractive over time [3][4]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 5.72 in 2023 to 3.13 in 2026, indicating potential undervaluation as the company grows [3][4].

公 司 报 告 公 司 季 报 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024年10月31日 食品饮料 古井贡酒(000596.SZ) 环比降速，稳扎稳打 推荐 ( 维持) 事项： 股价:186.31元 | --- | --- | |------------------------|----------------------------------| | 行业 | 食品饮料 | | 公司网址 | www.gujing.com | | 大股东 / 持股 | 安徽古井集团有限责任公司 /51.34% | | 实际控制人 | 亳州市人民政府国有资产监督管理委 | | | 员会 | | 总股本 ( 百万股 ) | 529 | | 流通 A 股 ( 百万股 ) | 409 | | 流通 B/H 股 ( 百万股 ) | 120 | | 总市值 ( 亿元 ) | 891 | | 流通 A 股市值 ( 亿元 ) | 761 | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 45.20 | | 资产负债率 (%) | 34.2 | | 行情走势图 | | 相关研究报告 【平安证券】古井贡酒（000596.SZ）*半年报点评* 市场稳扎稳打，利润 ...