Core Viewpoint - The new consumption investment trend, driven by潮玩IP, national trend gold, pet economy, and new tea drinks, has gained momentum in 2023, with many new consumption companies seeing stock price increases of over 30% since the second quarter, attracting extensive institutional investor interest [1]. Group 1: New Consumption Companies - Leading new consumption stocks such as 泡泡玛特, 老铺黄金, and 中宠股份 have shown strong performance, with institutional investors conducting multiple research sessions [3]. - 潮宏基 has been researched by 178 institutions three times since mid-April, with a stock price increase of 74.71% in Q2 and 183.42% over the past year. The company plans to expand its brand internationally in 2025 [3]. - 周大生 attracted 216 institutions for 14 research sessions, with new self-operated stores focusing on gold and embedded products [3]. - 新兴珠宝企业曼卡龙 has been researched 16 times by 113 institutions, with a stock price increase of 79.78% in Q2, emphasizing its online capabilities to meet young consumers' preferences [4]. - 中宠股份, a leader in pet food, held two research activities attracting 221 institutions, while 天元宠物 was researched by 45 institutions six times, with a stock price increase of 38.82% in Q2 [4]. Group 2: Investment Logic and Strategy - The unique characteristics of new consumption companies have led fund managers to adjust their strategies, focusing on individual stock research rather than top-down approaches due to the scarcity of listed companies in niche markets [5]. - The research framework for new consumption differs significantly from traditional consumption, emphasizing product strength and consumer-driven purchasing rather than channel power [5]. Group 3: Future Investment Opportunities - Institutions are focusing on new consumption investment opportunities as the year progresses, with 国信证券 identifying seven main lines for investment: digital economy, self-care consumption, emotional value consumption, health economy, convenience economy, alternative economy, and value-driven consumption [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, indicating it is expected to outperform the overall market [4][5][52]. Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of the pig farming sector, with expectations for a re-evaluation of pig prices due to ongoing market dynamics. It emphasizes the importance of quality pig farming enterprises and suggests focusing on the profitability of breeding support and pet food sectors [4][5]. - During the "618" shopping festival, the pet food industry showed resilience, with leading brands performing well. The report suggests that the performance of top companies may exceed expectations throughout the year [4][5]. - The report notes that pig prices have consistently outperformed market expectations since the beginning of 2025, with futures prices remaining lower than spot prices. It anticipates a slow recovery in production capacity and highlights the potential for profit realization in low-cost pig farming [4][5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index fell by 3.1%, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.5%. The top five gainers included Bangji Technology (up 24.7%) and Chenguang Biotech (up 13.4%), while the top five losers included Andeli (down 18.7%) and Zhongchong Co. (down 13.4%) [4][5][12]. Pig Farming - As of June 22, the average selling price of external three yuan pigs was 14.29 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 1.2%. The report indicates that the average weight of market pigs decreased to 128.28 kg, down 0.54 kg from the previous week. The report suggests that the expectations of "reducing weight, stabilizing production capacity, and limiting breeding" may lead to a re-evaluation of pig prices in the second half of the year [4][5]. Poultry Farming - The report notes a significant drop in chick prices, with the average price of white feather broiler chicks at 1.72 yuan/chick, down 29.2% week-on-week. The average price of white feather broilers remained stable at 3.52 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 1.7% week-on-week [4][5]. Pet Food - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the sales performance of pet food during the "618" shopping festival, with a year-on-year increase of 15% in e-commerce sales. The total sales for pet food reached 7.5 billion yuan, up from 5.5 billion yuan in the previous year, indicating a year-on-year growth of 36% [4][5]. Animal Health - The report highlights the recovery in vaccine sales, with a year-on-year increase of 23.02% in the number of veterinary vaccine batches issued in Q1 2025. It suggests that the profitability of breeding enterprises will drive the demand for vaccines and other products [4][5].

Group 1: Pet Economy - The pet economy continues to show high growth, with over 400 pet brands achieving sales growth of over 100% year-on-year during the "618" shopping festival [1] - The number of pet transaction users increased by 32% year-on-year, while new pet owners grew by 39% [1] - Top brands in various pet food categories include Royal Canin and Maffidi for cat and dog dry food, and Maffidi and Zeal for cat and dog snacks/wet food [1] Group 2: Pig Prices - The average price of external three yuan pigs rose to 14.22 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 1.43% [2] - The average price of piglets decreased to 31.85 yuan/kg, down 3.16% week-on-week [2] - The average weight of market pigs decreased slightly to 128.28 kg, while the inventory rate of frozen products increased to 14.04% [2] Group 3: Grain Prices - Prices for corn, soybean meal, and wheat have increased, with corn averaging 2417.06 yuan/ton (up 0.47%), soybean meal at 3015.14 yuan/ton (up 1.59%), and wheat at 2441.67 yuan/ton (up 0.46%) [3] - Weather conditions and trade dynamics are influencing corn prices, while soybean meal prices are affected by supply concerns from the U.S. and geopolitical tensions [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The pig farming sector is expected to enter a long-term profit growth phase after inventory reduction, with recommended companies including Juxing Agriculture, Shennong Group, and Muyuan Foods [4] - The post-cycle sector is seeing a recovery in feed and veterinary demand, with companies like Haida Group and Ruipu Biotech recommended [4] - The planting chain is showing positive fundamentals with rising grain prices, suggesting investment opportunities in companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [4] - The pet food industry is in a growth phase, with increasing recognition of domestic brands and recommended companies including Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. [4]

Core Insights - The pet consumption market is becoming a significant pillar for Chinese companies going global, with pet product sales during the "618" shopping festival showing that cat product sales are twice that of dog products [1] - The global pet market is projected to exceed $300 billion by 2025 and reach $500 billion by 2030, with China transitioning from a manufacturing hub to a brand-exporting nation [1][3] - Chinese pet food exports have shown robust growth, with a 16.17% increase in quantity and a 6.06% increase in value in the first four months of 2025 compared to the previous year [3] Industry Trends - Over 30,000 pet businesses participated in cross-border sales during the "618" event, with over 1,000 businesses seeing their sales double year-on-year [1] - The demand for smart pet products and eco-friendly toys is driving innovation and growth in the pet industry, with leading companies expanding their overseas operations [1][3] - The consensus in the pet industry is that companies must expand internationally to tap into the more mature overseas markets [2] Company Performance - Zhongchong Co., a leading player in the pet economy, has seen its stock price increase by nearly 66% this year, with revenue growing from 648 million yuan to 4.465 billion yuan from 2015 to 2024, representing a 589.04% increase [4] - In Q1 2025, Zhongchong Co. reported a revenue of 1.101 billion yuan, a 25.41% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 91 million yuan, a 62.13% increase [4] - The company has established production facilities in multiple countries, including the U.S., Canada, and Thailand, to enhance its overseas capacity and mitigate risks [3]

Core Insights - The INC Index, which stands for "Internet Communication Influence Index," serves as a quantitative evaluation system for brand communication effectiveness in the digital age [1] - The average INC Index for all listed companies in Shandong in May 2025 is 571.0, indicating a mature state of brand building within the industry, although it has decreased by 3.06% compared to April [5] Industry Overall Level Analysis - The average INC Index of 571.0 suggests that most brands are increasingly recognized and that brand voice and social attention are on the rise [2] - The skewness coefficient of the INC Index is 0.947, indicating a moderate "right-skewed" distribution, where a few units exhibit outstanding communication influence, enhancing the overall INC level [2] Communication Breadth Analysis - The average communication breadth score for Shandong listed companies is 2.6, categorized as "standard level" [4] - To further enhance communication breadth, companies are encouraged to increase information volume and engage users more actively [4] - Nine companies achieved the highest level (5) in communication breadth, while 38 companies remain at a lower level (2) [6] Communication Heat Analysis - The average communication heat score is 2.24, also categorized as "standard level" [7] - Most companies have a certain level of attractiveness on major social media platforms, with some users actively participating in information sharing [7] - Eight companies reached the highest level (5) in communication heat, while 118 companies are at the lowest level (1) [8] Network Attention Analysis - The average network attention score is 1.55, indicating "regional attention" [9] - This suggests that Shandong companies have a relatively active information dissemination, with many attracting regional users to search for their information [9] - 95 companies achieved a score of 3 or higher, indicating "national attention" [10] Official Website Presentation Analysis - The average score for official website presentation is 1.08, below the "standard level" [11] - This indicates that many companies have low information release frequency and content richness on their official websites [11] - Two companies achieved the highest level (5) in official website presentation, while 175 companies are at the lowest level (1) [12]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The pet industry showed remarkable performance during the 2025 618 shopping festival, with Tmall reporting that 43 brands achieved over 100 million yuan in sales within the first hour, a year-on-year increase of over 50% [1][4] - The overall market for pet food is experiencing a trend towards refined and scientific feeding practices, with China ranking second globally in market size [3][20] Core Insights and Arguments - **Promotional Strategies**: Tmall implemented a unified 15% discount policy across all products, simplifying the purchasing process for consumers, while JD continued its strategy of discounts and cross-store promotions [2][4] - **Consumer Behavior**: There is a growing trust in domestic pet brands, with 10 out of 12 pet brands in the top 500 online brands being domestic, indicating a shift in consumer preference [5] - **Product Trends**: The baked dry food category emerged as a core growth driver, with high-premium wet food products also showing growth [1][8][9] - **Sales Performance**: During the 618 period, 653 pet brands on Tmall saw their sales double, with 9 brands entering the "ten million club" [6][7] Noteworthy Developments - **Emerging Categories**: New categories such as baked dry food, plant-based cat litter, and freeze-dried raw meat cans are gaining traction, reflecting consumer demand for innovative pet products [1][9] - **Domestic Health Products**: The domestic health product VCARE saw sales growth exceeding 110%, indicating increasing consumer recognition and competition against foreign brands [3][10] - **Live Streaming Sales**: Pet live streaming sales on Tmall surged nearly 180% within the first four hours, showcasing the effectiveness of influencer marketing [12][15] Additional Insights - **Brand Strategies**: Brands like Guibao Pet are effectively targeting different consumer segments with their product lines, such as high-value offerings from Fuleijiate and cost-effective options from Maifudi [23][24][25] - **Celebrity Endorsements**: The choice of Wang Danna as a spokesperson for Guibao Pet aims to attract younger consumers and enhance brand relatability [26] - **Future Directions**: The pet food industry is expected to see growth in both pet ownership and per-pet spending, with a focus on premium products and health-oriented offerings [22] Conclusion The 2025 618 shopping festival highlighted significant growth and transformation within the pet industry, driven by innovative products, effective marketing strategies, and changing consumer preferences towards domestic brands. The trends observed suggest a robust future for the industry, with opportunities for both established and emerging brands to capitalize on evolving consumer demands.

Investment Strategy Overview - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][5][6] Market Performance - From the beginning of 2025 to June 16, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index achieved an absolute return of +12.81%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 14.5 percentage points [10][13] - The pet food sector has shown the highest growth, while the aquatic processing sector has also performed well [13][14] Swine Breeding Sector - The swine breeding industry is expected to enter a phase of simultaneous supply and demand growth in the second half of 2025, driven by a sufficient supply of piglets and an increase in domestic slaughtering due to reduced imports from the U.S. [15][30] - The number of breeding sows and total swine stock remains high, with a notable increase in piglet supply observed from January to April 2025 [18][30] - Major companies like Muyuan Foods have reported significant increases in piglet sales, indicating strong market dynamics [17][30] Animal Health Sector - The animal health market is experiencing steady growth, with a market size increase from 472.29 billion yuan in 2016 to 696.51 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 5.71% [35][36] - The introduction of new products and the expansion of demand are driving the growth of the animal health industry, particularly with the anticipated market expansion following the launch of African swine fever vaccines [41][48] Seed Industry - The seed industry is undergoing significant transformation, with a focus on the commercialization of biotechnology breeding, which is expected to enhance market concentration and profitability for related companies [4][16][19] - The regulatory environment is becoming clearer, and companies that have passed initial reviews are now obtaining operational licenses, positioning them to benefit from the industry's growth [4][19] Pet Food Sector - China's pet food market is projected to continue growing, driven by demographic changes and rising living standards, with the market size expected to expand significantly [5][23] - The domestic pet food industry is seeing a shift towards increased online sales and domestic product substitution, indicating a robust growth trajectory [5][23][26] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the sector, including Muyuan Foods, Pulaike, Qiule Seed Industry, Guai Bao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co., as they are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions and valuation recovery [5][32]

Group 1 - The SW Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery industry rose by 5.02% from January to May 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 7.43 percentage points [13][14] - Most sub-sectors recorded positive returns, with only planting and fishery sectors showing negative returns of -1.58% and -0.07% respectively [14] - Approximately 70% of stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, with three stocks increasing over 100%, the highest being Yizhi Magic Yam at 209.66% [15] Group 2 - The overall PB of the SW Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery industry increased from a low of 2.31 times at the beginning of the year to 2.68 times, with a current PB of approximately 2.66 times as of June 13, 2025, reflecting a 15% recovery from the low [20] - The pig breeding sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in supply, with the number of breeding sows reaching 40.38 million heads by the end of April 2025, slightly above the normal holding capacity [21][23] - The average price of pigs as of June 13, 2025, was 14.04 yuan/kg, down 10.8% from the beginning of the year and 26.1% year-on-year, with expectations for a price rebound in Q4 2025 [27] Group 3 - The total feed production in China is expected to rebound in 2025 after a decline in 2024, with a total production of 49.2 million tons in the first two months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [54] - The average price of corn in China rose from approximately 2,122 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to over 2,400 yuan/ton, reflecting a 13.3% increase [56] - The pet health market is anticipated to grow rapidly, with significant expansion potential in the domestic market for pet food and supplies, benefiting quality domestic leaders [5][6]

沪指6月16日上涨0.35%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有18个，涨幅居前的行业为传媒、通信，涨幅 分别为2.70%、2.11%。跌幅居前的行业为农林牧渔、美容护理，跌幅分别为0.76%、0.49%。农林牧渔 行业位居今日跌幅榜首位。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出2.93亿元，今日有10个行业主力资金净流入，传媒行业主力资金 净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨2.70%，全天净流入资金31.81亿元，其次是计算机行业，日涨幅为 1.99%，净流入资金为26.70亿元。 主力资金净流出的行业有21个，国防军工行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金21.33亿元， 其次是石油石化行业，净流出资金为18.56亿元，净流出资金较多的还有机械设备、有色金属、医药生 物等行业。 农林牧渔行业今日下跌0.76%，全天主力资金净流出4813.91万元，该行业所属的个股共103只，今日上 涨的有52只，涨停的有1只；下跌的有43只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入的个股有45 只，其中，净流入资金超千万元的有11只，净流入资金居首的是安德利，今日净流入资金4312.11万 元，紧随其后的是温氏股份、宏辉果蔬，净流 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **New Consumption Sector**: The new consumption sector is expected to show strong growth in 2025, contrasting with the sluggish performance of traditional consumption. Key drivers include product innovation, marketing transformation, and policy support. Investors should focus on companies with sustainable innovation capabilities and stable high growth [1][2][3]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Home Appliance Industry**: The home appliance sector is affected by adjustments in national subsidy policies, but overall subsidies will not cease. Offline consumption guidance policies will impact the competitive landscape, favoring companies with offline sales networks. Leading white goods companies like Midea are seen as good investment opportunities after valuation adjustments [1][4][5]. - **Small Home Appliances**: Competition in the small appliance sector is easing, leading to improved profit margins. Companies like Beiding are gaining attention due to governance improvements and channel expansion, aligning with the trend of aesthetic economy [1][9]. - **Light Industry**: The new consumption landscape includes promising areas such as e-cigarettes, AR glasses, trendy blind boxes, and personal care products. Leading companies like Pop Mart are performing well, and domestic brands are rapidly increasing market share through new channels like Douyin [1][10]. - **Pet Industry**: The pet sector showed strong performance during the 618 shopping festival, with domestic brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. gaining attention. Companies like Ruipubio and Petty Co. are also noteworthy, while the pig farming sector may face profit declines due to falling pig prices and slowing production capacity [1][15][16]. Additional Important Content - **Investment Directions**: Future investment directions focus on companies with continuous changes, stable high growth, and those that can tell new stories to gain market recognition. Recommended companies include Ru Yuchen and Jinbo Biological in the personal care sector, and emerging beverage and snack companies like Yanjin, Weilong, and Bailong Chuangyuan, which are expected to maintain around 40% growth in 2025 [2][3]. - **Subsidy Policy Impact**: The subsidy policy will continue in the second half of the year, although some regions may temporarily pause it due to rapid progress. The aim is to stimulate the economy rather than directly increase profits for platforms or companies. New subsidy policies may emerge to guide offline consumption [5][6]. - **High Tariffs on Exports**: The U.S. tariffs on imported steel and aluminum negatively impact white goods that rely heavily on these materials. Leading white goods companies may face pressure in the second half of the year, but if valuations adjust to around 10 to 12 times, companies like Midea could present good investment opportunities [7][8]. - **E-cigarette Market**: The e-cigarette market is a rapidly growing sector globally, with harm-reduction products gradually replacing traditional cigarettes. Companies like British American Tobacco and their contract manufacturers are expected to perform well [11]. - **AR Glasses**: AR glasses are seen as a significant product in the new consumption field, with several new products being launched. Companies like Inpax and Mingyue are recommended for investment [12]. - **Retail Sector Recommendations**: The retail sector's investment focus is on new consumption areas like gold jewelry and tea drinks, with leading companies like Laopu Gold showing strong performance. The education sector, particularly private high schools and training institutions, is also highlighted for potential growth [17]. Catalysts and Events - **Upcoming Catalysts**: Notable upcoming events include the launch of new products in the AI glasses industry and other AI products, which could create investment opportunities. Companies like Kangnait Optical are expected to perform well due to their competitive advantages [18][19].