Core Insights - The report highlights a significant rebound in pork prices before the New Year, with the average price of lean pigs reaching 12.39 CNY/kg, a 7.6% increase from the previous week, although it remains 19.7% lower year-on-year [5][13][23] - The implementation of a safeguard policy for beef import quotas is expected to alleviate domestic supply pressures, with a total import quota of 2.688 million tons for 2026, which is 93.5% of the total imports in 2024 [14] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with cost advantages in the livestock sector, particularly Wens Foodstuff and Muyuan Foods, while also highlighting potential turnaround candidates like Zhengbang Technology [5][13] Livestock Farming - The report notes that the pork market is under pressure due to significant losses in the industry, but the reduction in production capacity is expected to accelerate, leading to a more stable price environment in the first half of 2026 [5][13] - For poultry, the average price of white feather chickens is reported at 3.78 CNY/lb, down 3.1% week-on-week, while yellow feather chicken prices have shown slight increases, benefiting companies like Lihua and Wens [5][13][32] Dairy Industry - The current price of fresh milk in major production areas is 3.03 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week but down 3.2% year-on-year, indicating a balance in supply and demand as inventory levels decrease [14] - The safeguard measures on beef imports are anticipated to support domestic beef prices, which are expected to rise, enhancing the performance of companies like Yurun and Modern Farming [14] Feed and Animal Health - The report indicates a rebound in aquaculture prices due to holiday demand, with significant increases in white shrimp prices leading up to the New Year [15] - The feed industry is facing intense competition, but leading companies are expected to gain market share due to their cost advantages, especially in international markets [15] Agricultural Sector Performance - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 0.7 percentage points, with livestock farming and feed sectors showing the highest gains of 1.4% and 0.5%, respectively [21] - The report tracks various agricultural product prices, noting fluctuations in corn and soybean meal prices, with corn prices rising by 0.6% to 2352 CNY/ton [23][46]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [5] Core Viewpoints - The pig farming sector is expected to benefit from recent policies and market dynamics that promote capacity reduction, leading to a potential price turning point in Q2 2026, with long-term performance improvements anticipated for related stocks [3][43] - The structural growth trend in the post-cycle sector continues, with profits likely to gradually transmit downstream if the current round of pig capacity reduction proceeds smoothly, benefiting the animal health sector [3] - The planting chain shows a confirmed upward trend in grain prices, indicating favorable fundamentals for planting and seed industries, highlighting significant investment opportunities [3] - The pet food sector is experiencing growth and price increase logic, with continuous recognition of domestic brands and sustained growth of leading companies [3] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs as of December 31 was 12.76 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 10.38%, while the average price of 15 kg piglets was 19.44 yuan/kg, up 2.21% week-on-week [12][51] - The supply side shows a widening price gap for fattened pigs, supporting price increases, while demand is boosted by consumption expectations during the New Year holiday [12][17] Poultry - The price of white feather broilers increased to 7.82 yuan/kg, up 6.39% week-on-week, and chick prices rose to 3.59 yuan/chick, up 1.7% week-on-week [17][51] - The supply of meat chickens has increased, leading to a more relaxed market supply, while demand has weakened due to some slaughterhouses reducing operations [17] Feed Sector - The prices of corn, wheat, and soybean meal have risen, with corn averaging 2351.57 yuan/ton, up 0.57% week-on-week, and soybean meal at 3172.29 yuan/ton, up 0.96% week-on-week [27][51] - Increased selling enthusiasm among farmers is noted, although the pace of supply remains slow [27] Major Agricultural Products - The domestic natural rubber futures price was 15605 yuan/ton as of December 31, down 0.29% week-on-week, with inventory levels increasing [38][51] - The current down cycle for sugar prices continues, with no significant recovery expected [39]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the agricultural industry [9] Core Insights - In 2026, the pig and beef cattle farming sectors are expected to reach a cyclical turning point, with clear growth potential in the pet sector and significant opportunities in specialty planting [2][13] - Companies with complete production, sales, and research capabilities in the pet industry are likely to succeed amid competitive pressures [8] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Price: The pig price is expected to remain low in the first half of 2026, leading to continued low profits in the industry [3] - Capacity: Policy and cyclical adjustments are driving capacity reduction, with a focus on cost improvement and growth potential in pig farming enterprises [3][27] - Debt Reduction: The average debt-to-asset ratio for listed pig farming companies has decreased to 56.27%, indicating improved financial health [27] Poultry Farming - White Chicken: The industry is experiencing deep price declines, with a return to supply-demand balance expected to take time [4][30] - Yellow Chicken: Prices may see slight recovery, supported by promotional activities for native chicken varieties [35] Beef Farming - Long Cycle: The beef farming cycle is lengthy, with a fragmented supply structure impacting pricing dynamics [39] - Price Outlook: A supply contraction is expected to support continued price increases for beef from 2025 onwards [46] Feed and Animal Health - Feed: The feed sector is anticipated to see growth in sales, with a positive outlook for 2026 as livestock numbers remain high [49] - Animal Health: Demand for animal health products may face pressure due to low profits in farming, but breakthroughs in key products are worth monitoring [58][59] Planting - Grain Prices: Grain prices are expected to trend upwards, driven by increased focus on food security and innovation in seed varieties [7][64] - Specialty Planting: Opportunities in specialty crops like blueberries and mushrooms are highlighted, with a focus on innovation and market demand [7][70] Pet Industry - Growth Potential: The pet market is thriving, with strong consumer willingness to spend, indicating clear growth prospects [8][13] - Competitive Landscape: Companies with integrated production, sales, and research capabilities are rare and likely to outperform in the competitive environment [8][13]

人民财讯1月2日电，温氏股份1月2日在互动平台表示，公司2025年年初制定2025年肉猪（含毛猪和鲜 品）销售目标约3300万—3500万头。截至2025年11月末，公司已累计销售肉猪3190万头（含毛猪和鲜 品，不含仔猪）。 转自：证券时报 ...

Core Insights - The visit of Guangdong Wens Group to Henan Muyuan Group focused on key topics such as large-scale breeding, disease prevention, cost control, and digital applications [1][3] - Both companies engaged in an unprecedented level of technical exchange in the Chinese pig farming industry, discussing details on breeding systems, feed nutrition standards, and pig house site selection [3] Group 1 - Wens Group's visit was not a superficial tour but involved in-depth exploration of Muyuan's technical core areas, including innovative practices in building design and environmental control systems [3] - The two companies held substantial technical dialogues in three main areas: breeding and health management, feed nutrition, and pig farm design and environmental protection [3] - Muyuan emphasized its commitment to an open and shared approach, aiming to advance the pig farming industry collaboratively with peers [3] Group 2 - Both companies have evolved into key national leaders in agricultural industrialization since their inception in the 1980s and 1990s [3] - The collaboration between these two industry giants from different regions is expected to attract attention and potentially lead to the establishment of a healthier and more sustainable industry ecosystem [3]

Market Overview - In 2025, the A-share market achieved a historic breakthrough driven by enhanced national governance and increased confidence in technology, with major indices significantly rising and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching above 4000 points [3] - The total market capitalization surpassed 100 trillion yuan, with active trading and a clear focus on technology growth [3] - The outlook for 2026 suggests a consolidation phase for the A-share market, characterized by "sideways fluctuations with slight strengthening," supported by positive expectations for national governance and long-term development [3] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of mid-cap blue-chip stocks as a stabilizing force during market fluctuations, with a shift in investor preference from extreme technology and dividend styles to mid-range options [4] - It is recommended to explore opportunities in the long-dormant consumer sector and to wait for new catalysts in technology growth [4] Industry Focus: Swine Industry - The report highlights a pessimistic outlook for the swine industry, suggesting that the current market conditions present significant investment value [5] - Recent policies and market dynamics are expected to drive capacity reduction in the swine industry, leading to long-term performance improvements [5] - The report notes that market expectations for swine prices in 2026 are extremely low, which may underestimate the inventory and capacity reduction situation [5] - Historical trends indicate that when prices for fat pigs and piglets are low, the industry is likely to initiate market-driven capacity reductions, supported by ongoing policy restrictions on leading producers [5] Industry Focus: Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is anticipated to see rapid advancements in motion control in 2025, with mass production becoming a key focus in 2026 [6] - The report identifies the brain model as a significant challenge for mass production, with expectations for accelerated progress in the first half of 2026 [6] - Companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in the components sector are expected to benefit from this trend [6]

Group 1 - The core focus of the recent visit by Wens Foodstuff Group's Vice President and Technical Director Zhang Xiangbin to Muyuan Group was on large-scale breeding, disease prevention, cost control, and digital applications in the industry [1][3] - During the visit, both parties engaged in deep technical exchanges, including discussions on breeding stock and health management, feed nutrition, and pig farm design and environmental protection [3][5] - Muyuan Group is committed to building a new ecosystem of industry exchange and collaborative innovation, aiming to inject new momentum into the high-quality development of the pig industry [5] Group 2 - Muyuan Group shared its innovative technologies such as multi-story pig houses, air filtration management, and the cyclical model of breeding and farming, while Wens Foodstuff Group shared its experiences in refined management and collaborative development in the livestock industry [5] - The pig industry is transitioning from scale expansion to a new stage of high-quality development, with industry innovation and transformation entering a "deep water zone" [5] - The formation of a new ecosystem characterized by "open connectivity and collaborative innovation" among leading breeding enterprises and small-scale farmers is expected to open new growth opportunities for the pig industry [5]

Core Viewpoint - The yellow feather chicken market in 2025 experienced a "roller coaster" with significant losses in the first half, followed by a rapid recovery in prices after August, leading to a potential balance between profit and loss for the year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The market faced a downturn in the first half of 2025, with prices hitting a low of 11.8 yuan/kg in July, and companies like Wen's Foodstuffs (温氏股份) reported a sales average of 10.29 yuan/kg in June, a 24.78% year-on-year decline [1][2]. - August marked a turning point, with prices increasing by over 20% month-on-month, allowing profitability to return, with profits of 3-4 yuan per chicken reported [2]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The industry is witnessing a polarization trend, with small farmers exiting the market while leading companies continue to grow rapidly. For instance, Wen's Foodstuffs and other listed companies reported significant increases in chicken sales, with Wen's selling 1.194 billion chickens, a year-on-year growth of 8.55% [3]. - The concentration of the industry is expected to increase, with leading companies projected to maintain a growth rate of around 10% in 2026, driven by cost advantages and a "company + farmer" model [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The industry is anticipated to shift from "cyclical speculation" to "value growth," with a focus on fresh and processed products as key growth areas. Price recovery is expected to be moderate, supported by supply adjustments and steady demand [3].

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes a structural transformation in the capital market, focusing on rebuilding confidence and addressing external demand pessimism [3][4] - The investment logic suggests a shift from cyclical growth to cyclical value, with a resilient cycle expected in 2026, highlighting the value attributes of leading companies [9] - Key assumptions include a gradual decrease in the breeding sow inventory and proactive capacity control by pig companies, which may lead to reduced supply pressure and potential price recovery for pigs in 2026 [8] Group 2 - The report identifies specific companies to focus on, such as leading low-cost and high-certainty firms like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, as well as high-growth smaller pig companies [7] - The report outlines potential risks, including the possibility of breeding sow inventory not decreasing as expected, which could lead to an oversupply of pigs and downward pressure on prices [8] - The report also discusses the beef market, indicating that if the import impact continues, it could lead to downward pressure on beef prices, affecting the profitability of beef companies [16][24] Group 3 - In the poultry sector, the report highlights that the yellow chicken market may see price increases if breeding stocks continue to decline, while the white chicken market is expected to recover as macroeconomic activities improve [25][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer demand in the poultry market, noting that weak demand could lead to price declines and pressure on company performance [27][32] - The report suggests that the animal health sector will benefit from the recovery of livestock profitability, with a focus on companies that have strong R&D capabilities and product pipelines [33][36] Group 4 - The grain sector is expected to see upward price trends due to adverse weather conditions affecting crop yields, with a focus on companies involved in seed production and transgenic varieties [40][41] - The report warns of potential risks in the seed industry, including weak demand for new varieties, which could lead to price declines and increased pressure on seed companies [44][45] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring government policies regarding the commercialization of new seed varieties, as delays could impact market expectations [46][48] Group 5 - The report provides a risk assessment for recommended stocks, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, indicating potential risks related to pig output and price declines [50][56] - The report emphasizes the need for continuous monitoring of key indicators, such as breeding sow inventory and market prices, to assess the performance of the companies in the livestock sector [56]

S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 2025 年 12 月 30 日 生猪养殖行业深度报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，东莞证券研 究所 超配（维持） 关注产能去化 布局盈利拐点 深 农林牧渔行业 | 图 | 27：SW 生猪养殖板块单季营收同比增速（%） 12 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 图 | 28：SW 生猪养殖板块单季归母净利润同比增速（%） 12 | | | 图 29：SW | 生猪养殖板块单季度毛利率净利率（%） 13 | | | 图 | 30：SW 生猪养殖板块单季度期间费用率（%） 13 | | | 图 | 31：我国生猪养殖年出栏户数占比（%） | 14 | | 图 | 32：我国生猪行业规模化程度（%） | 14 | 推荐 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： 我国是全球最大的生猪及猪肉产需国。根据美国农业部2025年4 月份《牲畜和家 ...