人民财讯1月2日电，温氏股份1月2日在互动平台表示，公司2025年年初制定2025年肉猪（含毛猪和鲜 品）销售目标约3300万—3500万头。截至2025年11月末，公司已累计销售肉猪3190万头（含毛猪和鲜 品，不含仔猪）。 转自：证券时报 ...

Core Insights - The visit of Guangdong Wens Group to Henan Muyuan Group focused on key topics such as large-scale breeding, disease prevention, cost control, and digital applications [1][3] - Both companies engaged in an unprecedented level of technical exchange in the Chinese pig farming industry, discussing details on breeding systems, feed nutrition standards, and pig house site selection [3] Group 1 - Wens Group's visit was not a superficial tour but involved in-depth exploration of Muyuan's technical core areas, including innovative practices in building design and environmental control systems [3] - The two companies held substantial technical dialogues in three main areas: breeding and health management, feed nutrition, and pig farm design and environmental protection [3] - Muyuan emphasized its commitment to an open and shared approach, aiming to advance the pig farming industry collaboratively with peers [3] Group 2 - Both companies have evolved into key national leaders in agricultural industrialization since their inception in the 1980s and 1990s [3] - The collaboration between these two industry giants from different regions is expected to attract attention and potentially lead to the establishment of a healthier and more sustainable industry ecosystem [3]

Market Overview - In 2025, the A-share market achieved a historic breakthrough driven by enhanced national governance and increased confidence in technology, with major indices significantly rising and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching above 4000 points [3] - The total market capitalization surpassed 100 trillion yuan, with active trading and a clear focus on technology growth [3] - The outlook for 2026 suggests a consolidation phase for the A-share market, characterized by "sideways fluctuations with slight strengthening," supported by positive expectations for national governance and long-term development [3] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of mid-cap blue-chip stocks as a stabilizing force during market fluctuations, with a shift in investor preference from extreme technology and dividend styles to mid-range options [4] - It is recommended to explore opportunities in the long-dormant consumer sector and to wait for new catalysts in technology growth [4] Industry Focus: Swine Industry - The report highlights a pessimistic outlook for the swine industry, suggesting that the current market conditions present significant investment value [5] - Recent policies and market dynamics are expected to drive capacity reduction in the swine industry, leading to long-term performance improvements [5] - The report notes that market expectations for swine prices in 2026 are extremely low, which may underestimate the inventory and capacity reduction situation [5] - Historical trends indicate that when prices for fat pigs and piglets are low, the industry is likely to initiate market-driven capacity reductions, supported by ongoing policy restrictions on leading producers [5] Industry Focus: Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is anticipated to see rapid advancements in motion control in 2025, with mass production becoming a key focus in 2026 [6] - The report identifies the brain model as a significant challenge for mass production, with expectations for accelerated progress in the first half of 2026 [6] - Companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in the components sector are expected to benefit from this trend [6]

Group 1 - The core focus of the recent visit by Wens Foodstuff Group's Vice President and Technical Director Zhang Xiangbin to Muyuan Group was on large-scale breeding, disease prevention, cost control, and digital applications in the industry [1][3] - During the visit, both parties engaged in deep technical exchanges, including discussions on breeding stock and health management, feed nutrition, and pig farm design and environmental protection [3][5] - Muyuan Group is committed to building a new ecosystem of industry exchange and collaborative innovation, aiming to inject new momentum into the high-quality development of the pig industry [5] Group 2 - Muyuan Group shared its innovative technologies such as multi-story pig houses, air filtration management, and the cyclical model of breeding and farming, while Wens Foodstuff Group shared its experiences in refined management and collaborative development in the livestock industry [5] - The pig industry is transitioning from scale expansion to a new stage of high-quality development, with industry innovation and transformation entering a "deep water zone" [5] - The formation of a new ecosystem characterized by "open connectivity and collaborative innovation" among leading breeding enterprises and small-scale farmers is expected to open new growth opportunities for the pig industry [5]

Core Viewpoint - The yellow feather chicken market in 2025 experienced a "roller coaster" with significant losses in the first half, followed by a rapid recovery in prices after August, leading to a potential balance between profit and loss for the year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The market faced a downturn in the first half of 2025, with prices hitting a low of 11.8 yuan/kg in July, and companies like Wen's Foodstuffs (温氏股份) reported a sales average of 10.29 yuan/kg in June, a 24.78% year-on-year decline [1][2]. - August marked a turning point, with prices increasing by over 20% month-on-month, allowing profitability to return, with profits of 3-4 yuan per chicken reported [2]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The industry is witnessing a polarization trend, with small farmers exiting the market while leading companies continue to grow rapidly. For instance, Wen's Foodstuffs and other listed companies reported significant increases in chicken sales, with Wen's selling 1.194 billion chickens, a year-on-year growth of 8.55% [3]. - The concentration of the industry is expected to increase, with leading companies projected to maintain a growth rate of around 10% in 2026, driven by cost advantages and a "company + farmer" model [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The industry is anticipated to shift from "cyclical speculation" to "value growth," with a focus on fresh and processed products as key growth areas. Price recovery is expected to be moderate, supported by supply adjustments and steady demand [3].

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes a structural transformation in the capital market, focusing on rebuilding confidence and addressing external demand pessimism [3][4] - The investment logic suggests a shift from cyclical growth to cyclical value, with a resilient cycle expected in 2026, highlighting the value attributes of leading companies [9] - Key assumptions include a gradual decrease in the breeding sow inventory and proactive capacity control by pig companies, which may lead to reduced supply pressure and potential price recovery for pigs in 2026 [8] Group 2 - The report identifies specific companies to focus on, such as leading low-cost and high-certainty firms like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, as well as high-growth smaller pig companies [7] - The report outlines potential risks, including the possibility of breeding sow inventory not decreasing as expected, which could lead to an oversupply of pigs and downward pressure on prices [8] - The report also discusses the beef market, indicating that if the import impact continues, it could lead to downward pressure on beef prices, affecting the profitability of beef companies [16][24] Group 3 - In the poultry sector, the report highlights that the yellow chicken market may see price increases if breeding stocks continue to decline, while the white chicken market is expected to recover as macroeconomic activities improve [25][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer demand in the poultry market, noting that weak demand could lead to price declines and pressure on company performance [27][32] - The report suggests that the animal health sector will benefit from the recovery of livestock profitability, with a focus on companies that have strong R&D capabilities and product pipelines [33][36] Group 4 - The grain sector is expected to see upward price trends due to adverse weather conditions affecting crop yields, with a focus on companies involved in seed production and transgenic varieties [40][41] - The report warns of potential risks in the seed industry, including weak demand for new varieties, which could lead to price declines and increased pressure on seed companies [44][45] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring government policies regarding the commercialization of new seed varieties, as delays could impact market expectations [46][48] Group 5 - The report provides a risk assessment for recommended stocks, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, indicating potential risks related to pig output and price declines [50][56] - The report emphasizes the need for continuous monitoring of key indicators, such as breeding sow inventory and market prices, to assess the performance of the companies in the livestock sector [56]

S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 2025 年 12 月 30 日 生猪养殖行业深度报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，东莞证券研 究所 超配（维持） 关注产能去化 布局盈利拐点 深 农林牧渔行业 | 图 | 27：SW 生猪养殖板块单季营收同比增速（%） 12 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 图 | 28：SW 生猪养殖板块单季归母净利润同比增速（%） 12 | | | 图 29：SW | 生猪养殖板块单季度毛利率净利率（%） 13 | | | 图 | 30：SW 生猪养殖板块单季度期间费用率（%） 13 | | | 图 | 31：我国生猪养殖年出栏户数占比（%） | 14 | | 图 | 32：我国生猪行业规模化程度（%） | 14 | 推荐 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： 我国是全球最大的生猪及猪肉产需国。根据美国农业部2025年4 月份《牲畜和家 ...

Market Overview - In 2025, the A-share market achieved a historic breakthrough driven by enhanced national governance and increased confidence in technology, with major indices significantly elevated and the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 4000 points [3] - The total market capitalization exceeded 100 trillion yuan, with active trading and a clear focus on technology growth [3] - The outlook for 2026 suggests a consolidation phase for the A-share market, characterized by "sideways fluctuations with slight strengthening," supported by positive expectations for national governance and long-term development [3] Sector Strategy - The mid-cap blue-chip stocks are positioned as a stabilizing force in the market, with a shift in risk appetite leading funds from extreme technology and dividend styles to the mid-range, providing opportunities for mid-cap blue chips [4] - The performance of cyclical sectors (non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals) and manufacturing (communications, military) has been validated by the market, suggesting a focus on the long-dormant consumer sector and waiting for new catalysts in technology growth [4] Industry Insights - The pig farming sector is viewed as having significant value due to extremely pessimistic expectations, with recent policies and market dynamics driving capacity reduction, which is expected to enhance long-term performance [5] - The market's pessimism regarding pig prices for 2026 is seen as underestimating inventory and capacity reduction, with historical trends indicating a likely market-driven capacity reduction [5] - The humanoid robot sector is anticipated to see rapid advancements in motion control in 2025, with mass production becoming a key focus in 2026, driven by the evolution of brain models [6] - Companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in the components sector are expected to benefit from the future of mass production in humanoid robots [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Wens Foodstuff Group Co., Ltd. has seen a stock price increase of 1% on December 30, reaching 17.09 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 113.716 billion yuan [1] - Wens Foodstuff's main business involves the breeding and sales of meat chickens and pigs, with revenue composition being 65.67% from pig breeding, 30.34% from chicken breeding, and other segments contributing the remainder [1] - The stock has experienced a cumulative increase of 1.74% over the past three days, indicating positive market sentiment [1] Group 2 - Huashang Fund has a significant holding in Wens Foodstuff, with its Huashang Consumer Industry Fund increasing its stake by 8,200 shares in the third quarter, making it the second-largest holding in the fund [2] - The fund's current net asset value is 185.482 million yuan, with a year-to-date return of 0.62% and a one-year loss of 0.5% [2] - The fund manager, Cui Zhipeng, has a tenure of nearly two years, with the best fund return during this period being 74.09% [3]

未来，在非洲猪瘟等重大疫病的区域净化、种猪遗传改良的"卡脖子"技术突破、养殖废弃物资源化利用 的前沿探索等方面，两大巨头均有潜力开展更具实质性的联合研发或数据共享，从而降低整个行业的系 统性风险，提升中国生猪产业的核心竞争力。 生猪养殖行业龙头企业多年来不断向外透露出共赢发展的理念。 作为生猪养殖行业的两大巨头，牧原股份与温氏股份近年来在生产规模及养殖技术等方面实现大幅提 升，成为行业践行高质量发展的典范。 2025年接近尾声之际，12月26日至27日，温氏股份副总裁张祥斌一行到访牧原股份，双方团队在种猪与 健康管理、饲料营养、猪场设计与环保等方面坦诚交流分享，在经验互学互鉴中实现了共同提升。 在生猪行业当前大力践行"反内卷"的背景下，此番两家龙头企业的深入交流，无疑传递出了养殖企业正 从过往以规模扩张和价格竞争为主导的"内卷"泥潭中抽身，积极探索以开放协同、技术共享、生态共建 为特征的"竞合"新路径，为破局"猪周期"困局、构筑长期健康发展的产业新生态提供了关键范本。 据了解，本次交流中双方已凝聚了一个关键共识，即生猪养殖行业当下的核心矛盾已非简单的市场份额 之争，而是如何共同应对生产效率瓶颈、资源环境约束与 ...