Core Viewpoint - The report from Minsheng Securities highlights the cyclical recovery in the livestock industry, emphasizing the valuation shift for leading companies in the sector [1] Livestock Industry - The domestic livestock cycle is expected to reverse, with both domestic and international beef and raw milk markets likely to experience upward momentum [1] - Official capacity regulation in the pig industry is anticipated to accelerate cash flow improvements for leading enterprises, potentially transforming them into dividend stocks as industry capacity contracts [1] - In the poultry sector, limited supply fluctuations are expected, with market conditions likely to improve alongside demand recovery, allowing leading companies to achieve higher cash flow and dividend returns [1] Feed Industry - The deepening industrialization of livestock and poultry farming, along with clear industry segmentation, positions leading feed companies to further enhance their competitive advantages through technology and service [1] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a scarce growth sector, expected to benefit from demographic changes [1] Investment Recommendations - Recommended livestock companies include: - For livestock: Youran Dairy, Modern Dairy, and China Shengmu [1] - For pigs: Huazhong Holdings, Dekang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, Tiankang Biological, and Shennong Group [1] - For poultry: Lihua Stock, Yisheng Shares, and Shennong Development [1] - For feed: Haida Group [1] - For pets: Guibao Pet [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector, particularly focusing on the livestock industry and its cyclical recovery [1][4]. Core Insights - The livestock industry is experiencing a reversal of internal competition, which is expected to support long-term pig prices. As of November 21, the price of live pigs was 11.67 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.4% [1]. - The beef market is entering a new price increase phase, with the average price of beef at 66.38 CNY/kg, showing a year-on-year increase of 8% [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the livestock sector, suggesting that their cash flow will improve due to official capacity control measures [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview and Data Summary - The report provides a weekly summary of agricultural product data, highlighting trends in livestock prices and supply dynamics [12]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Swine - The swine industry is seeing orderly progress in reversing internal competition, which is expected to stabilize profitability [13]. 2.2 White Chicken - A slight increase in supply is noted, with attention on seasonal consumption recovery [13]. 2.3 Yellow Chicken - Supply remains at a low level, with potential benefits from improved domestic demand [13]. 2.4 Eggs - The egg market faces significant mid-term supply pressure, with wholesale prices at 3.63 CNY/jin, down 28% year-on-year [13]. 2.5 Beef - A new round of beef price increases is anticipated, with a focus on the upward trend in the beef cycle for 2025 [13]. 2.6 Raw Milk - The report suggests that the de-stocking of dairy cows may accelerate in Q4, potentially leading to a price turning point for raw milk [13]. 2.7 Soybean Meal - Short-term supply is expected to be ample, while medium-term demand and supply dynamics are projected to strengthen [13]. 2.8 Corn - Domestic supply and demand balance is tightening, with prices expected to maintain a moderate upward trend [13]. 2.9 Sugar - Short-term increases in imports are noted, with attention on the rhythm of arrivals and fluctuations in crude oil prices [13]. 2.10 Rubber - Prices are expected to stabilize in the short term, with a positive outlook for the medium term [13]. 2.11 Palm Oil - Short-term performance is weak, with medium-term policy support being a focus [13]. 2.12 Cotton - Inventory pressure is neutral, with demand still needing recovery [13]. 2.13 Red Dates - Limited demand recovery is noted, with attention on weather conditions in new production areas [13]. 3. Market Trends - The report discusses market trends and price movements across various agricultural products, indicating a complex interplay of supply and demand factors [12].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - The report highlights that the national breeding sow inventory has fallen below 40 million heads as of the end of October, indicating a significant reduction in production capacity. This situation presents a left-side layout opportunity in the pig farming sector [2][12] - The report emphasizes that the pig farming industry is currently in a loss-making state, with average losses per self-bred pig reaching 135.9 yuan and 234.63 yuan for purchased piglets. However, proactive and reactive capacity reduction measures are expected to accelerate, leading to a potential increase in domestic pig prices in the medium to long term [2][12] - The report suggests that the future trend in the pig industry will focus on "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," with the gradual elimination of backward production capacity and an increase in market share for financially sound and low-cost producers [2][12] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting to promote the revitalization of the seed industry, emphasizing the importance of enhancing responsibility and focusing on high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The meeting also highlighted the revolutionary role of genetically modified technology in improving yield [11] 2. Market Review - The agricultural sector index decreased by 3.45% during the week from November 17 to November 21, with the pig farming sector experiencing price fluctuations close to cash costs [14][19] 3. Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - The average price of live pigs was reported at 11.72 yuan/kg, down 1.50% week-on-week. The average price of pig feed was 2.6 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.78% increase [26][51]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the agricultural sector, particularly highlighting the need to focus on capacity reduction in the pig farming industry due to ongoing losses and low prices [1][2]. Core Insights - The agricultural index fell by 3.4% this week, with significant individual stock movements, including a notable increase in companies like Zhongshui Fishery (61.0%) and Quanyin High-Tech (27.4%) [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing losses in pig farming due to low prices, suggesting that the industry is entering a phase of accelerated capacity reduction, which may present left-side investment opportunities [1][2]. - The pet food sector showed strong sales performance during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, indicating growth potential for leading companies in this space [1][2]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The report notes a decline in pig prices, with the average price for external three yuan pigs at 11.61 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.43% but a decrease of 2.11% compared to the previous week [1]. - Losses for self-breeding sow enterprises have increased, with losses reported at 96.61 yuan per head, a week-on-week increase of 24.66 yuan [1]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on pig supply through Q4 2025 and into H1 2026, with prices likely to remain low [1]. Pet Food - October data shows a decline in China's pet food exports, with a total export value of 772 million yuan (approximately 109 million USD), down 15.8% year-on-year [1]. - Despite short-term challenges due to trade friction, the domestic pet food market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with a focus on leading brands [1][2]. Chicken Farming - The report highlights stable prices for white feather broiler chicks and chicken meat, with the average price for chicks at 3.35 yuan each and for chicken meat at 3.50 yuan/kg [1]. - The supply of broilers is expected to remain ample, but improvements in demand due to economic recovery could lead to a rebound in industry profitability [1].

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agricultural sector, particularly in the pig farming and pet food industries, highlighting potential growth opportunities and ongoing challenges in supply and pricing [2][4][6]. Pig Farming - The pig farming sector is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with the average price of live pigs at 11.60 CNY/kg as of November 20, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.11% [29][30]. - The number of breeding sows has decreased, with a reported month-on-month decline of 0.77% in October, indicating ongoing supply pressures [20][6]. - Profitability remains a concern, with losses reported at -135.90 CNY per head for self-bred pigs and -234.63 CNY per head for purchased piglets as of November 21 [33][38]. Poultry Farming - The poultry sector is seeing a rise in white chicken prices, with an average price of 7.15 CNY/kg as of November 21, up 0.42% week-on-week [39][36]. - The outbreak of avian influenza in overseas markets is creating uncertainty in the supply chain, which may benefit the white feather chicken industry in the long term [36][37]. Animal Health - The animal health industry is expected to rebound as demand for biological products increases, driven by a recovery in livestock profitability and inventory levels [44]. - Recent developments in vaccine research, particularly for African swine fever, are anticipated to stimulate interest in the sector [44]. Seed Industry - The prices of key agricultural commodities such as wheat and corn have shown slight increases, with wheat averaging 2505 CNY/ton and corn at 2280 CNY/ton as of November 21 [47]. - The report emphasizes the importance of enhancing food security and promoting the adoption of biotechnology in the seed industry [47]. Pet Industry - The pet food market is experiencing robust growth in domestic sales, with e-commerce sales up 19% year-on-year in October [55]. - Notable performance during the Double Eleven shopping festival indicates a strong market presence for domestic brands, with significant sales increases reported for several companies [56]. - Export figures for pet food show a decline, with October exports at 772 million CNY, down 15.9% year-on-year, but the impact of tariff disruptions is expected to be limited [54][52].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The demand for pork is expected to support prices as the year-end peak season approaches, despite a decline in prices due to overproduction and accelerated culling of sows [3][12] - The suspension of imports of Japanese seafood is beneficial for the domestic aquaculture sector, as it reduces competition and supports local prices [4][18] - The pet industry is experiencing growth driven by consumer upgrades and increased domestic production, with significant market potential projected for the coming years [22] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The culling of breeding sows has accelerated, with the national average price of live pigs at 11.62 yuan/kg as of November 21, 2025, down 0.01 yuan/kg week-on-week and down 4.75% year-on-year [11][12] - The average weight of pigs slaughtered is 128.81 kg, showing a slight increase week-on-week [11] - Cold weather is expected to boost pork consumption, providing support for prices during the peak season [12] Weekly Insights - The pig farming sector is facing losses, leading to accelerated culling of sows. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [22] - The feed sector is benefiting from strong demand, with domestic production expected to improve due to recovery in livestock numbers [22] - The pet market is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on domestic brands due to rising consumer preferences and tariff barriers [22] Market Performance (November 17-21) - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 0.45 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.90% and the agricultural index down 3.45% [24] - The fishery sector led gains, with notable increases in stocks such as Zhongshui Fishery (+61.05%) and others [24][30] Price Tracking (November 17-21) - The average price of live pigs was 11.64 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the price of piglets increased to 19.15 yuan/kg [35] - The price of corn futures rose slightly to 2183.00 yuan/ton, while soybean meal futures decreased to 2427.00 yuan/ton [46][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing decline in pig prices leading to increased losses in breeding, with a focus on accelerated capacity reduction. The supply pressure for fat pigs remains significant, and the seasonal price increase is not materializing, which may further accelerate capacity reduction in the industry [2][3]. - The pet food sector showed strong sales performance during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, with recommendations to focus on leading companies with growth certainty. The core brands of listed companies performed well during the promotional period, and the logic of increasing market share continues to be validated [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the pig breeding industry, suggesting that the downward cycle is nearing its end, with a potential upward turning point expected in 2026. The report also notes that the pet economy remains a core growth area, with expectations for continued market share growth among leading companies [2][3]. Summary by Sections Agricultural Stock Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index fell by 3.4%, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 3.8%. The top five gainers included Zhongshui Fishery (61.0%), Quanyin High-Tech (27.4%), and Guolian Aquatic Products (22.5%) [3][10]. Pig Breeding - The report indicates a decline in breeding enthusiasm due to rising costs and high utilization rates of existing facilities. The average selling price of pigs was reported at 11.61 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.43% but a decrease of 2.11% compared to the previous week. Losses for self-breeding sow enterprises reached 96.61 yuan per head, a week-on-week increase of 24.66 yuan [2][3][11]. Pet Food - October data showed a decline in both the export value and volume of pet food from China, with a total export value of 772 million yuan (approximately 109 million USD), reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 15.8%. Despite this, the domestic pet food market is viewed as a high-certainty growth area, with strong sales during the "Double Eleven" event [2][3]. Chicken Breeding - The report notes that the prices of white feather broiler chicks and chicken meat have remained stable, with the average selling price of broiler chicks at 3.35 yuan per chick. The supply of white feather chickens is expected to remain ample in 2025, with potential demand recovery in 2026 [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that in Q3 2025, the profitability of listed pig companies has significantly declined due to falling pig prices and rising raw material costs, while the cost variance within the industry remains substantial, leading to an expansion of cost advantages for high-quality pig companies. The overall demand is showing signs of recovery in the later cycle, suggesting a potential increase in pig prices in 2026 due to accelerated sow capacity reduction [1][2]. Group 1: Swine Farming - In Q3 2025, the profitability of 18 listed pig companies dropped to 5.54 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 71% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 38% [2]. - The cost variance in the industry remains significant, with high-quality pig companies further enhancing their cost advantages [2]. - The operational cash flow of listed pig companies continues to improve, while capital expenditures remain low and debt ratios are high [2]. - The report anticipates an acceleration in sow capacity reduction, which may elevate the average pig price in 2026 [2]. - Recommended companies include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, with additional attention on Shennong Group, Dekang Agriculture, Dongrui Co., and COFCO Joycome [2][5]. Group 2: Poultry Farming - The white feather chicken market is expected to see an increase in the import of grandparent stock chickens in 2024, but it will not return to pre-disruption levels until 2025 [3]. - The supply of parent stock chickens is expected to tighten in the second half of 2025, impacting the supply of commercial chickens in 2026 [3]. - The yellow feather chicken sector is experiencing a reduction in parent stock numbers to historically low levels, which may support future price increases [3]. - Recommended companies in poultry farming include San Nong Development for white feather chickens and Lihua Food for yellow feather chickens [3][5]. Group 3: Post-Cycle Demand - The demand for feed in the swine and poultry sectors is gradually recovering, leading to a notable improvement in feed demand [4]. - The demand for aquaculture feed is also expected to rise as the aquaculture sector recovers [4]. - The report forecasts continued demand growth for livestock feed in Q4 2025, while aquaculture feed demand may enter a seasonal decline [4]. - Recommended companies for feed include Haida Group, which is expected to benefit from overseas expansion [4][5]. - In the animal health sector, demand is recovering due to sustained profitability in the downstream farming sector, with major animal health companies expected to see improved profitability [4]. Recommended companies include Kexin Biological and attention on BioStock and Reap Biological [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities emphasizes the importance of identifying and capturing turning points in the agricultural sector in 2026, focusing on core indicators and finding entry points within a relatively reasonable valuation range [1] Group 1: Swine Breeding - The swine breeding sector is expected to benefit from changes in supply and demand, with a continued emphasis on a balanced approach of offense and defense [1] - The investment opportunities in the swine breeding sector arise from changes in production capacity affecting pig price expectations, with a recommendation to focus on major players like Muyuan Foods (002714) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), as well as smaller companies like Tiankang Biological (002100) and Shennong Group (605296) [1] - Despite a generally pessimistic outlook on pig prices based on current data, there is potential for changes within the industry that could lead to investment opportunities [1] Group 2: Pet Food - The pet food sector is characterized by sustained growth and significant market share expansion potential, with export growth serving as a shield for performance and the development of proprietary brands as a spear for future market share increases [2] - The report suggests that companies in the pet food industry should focus on maintaining or exceeding growth expectations for their proprietary brands while leveraging multi-brand operations [2] - Key companies to watch in the pet food sector include Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891), Guibao Pet (301498), and Petty (300673), with additional attention on Yuanfei Pet (001222) [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective decline in the three major indices, with the agricultural sector showing strong performance in certain stocks, such as Luoniushan, which rose over 7% [1] - The newly launched Tianhong Agricultural ETF (512620) closely tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, covering sectors like breeding and agrochemicals, and includes leading agricultural companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region government announced a plan to modernize agricultural facilities, aiming to renovate 30,000 acres and add 20,000 acres of modern agricultural production by the end of 2028 [1] Group 2 - Zhongjin Company highlighted that policy support and technological innovation will be key drivers for the future development of the planting industry chain, with a positive outlook on investment opportunities in leading agricultural enterprises [2] - The company believes that under the paradigm shift and the trend of stronger players becoming stronger, leading enterprises possess greater development potential [2]