2026 年 01 月 21 日 兴业银行 (601166) ——营收超预期，风险再收敛，期待利润表持续修复 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 证券分析师 郑庆明 A0230519090001 zhengqm@swsresearch.com 林颖颖 A0230522070004 linyy@swsresearch.com 冯思远 A0230522090005 fengsy@swsresearch.com 李禹昊 A0230525070004 liyh2@swsresearch.com 联系人 冯思远 A0230522090005 fengsy@swsresearch.com 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2026 年 01 月 21 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 19.61 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 25.45/19.35 | | 市净率 | 0.5 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 5.41 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 415,004 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 4,116.94/14,255.13 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Dongpeng Beverage (605499) [1] Core Insights - The company achieved revenue performance in line with expectations for 2025, with projected revenue of 20.76 to 21.12 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.1% to 33.3% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be between 4.34 to 4.59 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.5% to 38.0% [5] - The company is focusing on a platform strategy for 2026, aiming for comprehensive development and nurturing a second growth curve [5] - The beverage market share for energy drinks is expected to continue increasing, with new products like "Brewed Tea" anticipated to contribute to growth [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2024 to 2027 are as follows: - 2024: 15.839 billion yuan - 2025: 21.042 billion yuan (32.8% growth) - 2026: 26.157 billion yuan (24.3% growth) - 2027: 31.476 billion yuan (20.3% growth) [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as: - 2025: 4.466 billion yuan (34.2% growth) - 2026: 5.546 billion yuan (24.2% growth) - 2027: 6.728 billion yuan (21.3% growth) [4] - The report indicates a consistent gross margin around 45.6% to 45.7% from 2025 to 2027 [4] Market Data - As of January 20, 2026, the closing price is 257.38 yuan, with a market capitalization of 133.841 billion yuan [1] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 30x for 2025, 24x for 2026, and 20x for 2027 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported that its revenue performance for 2025 is in line with expectations, forecasting a revenue of 20.76 to 21.12 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.1% to 33.3% [6] - The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.34 to 4.59 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 30.5% to 38.0% [6] - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027, predicting net profits of 4.466, 5.546, and 6.728 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.2%, 24.2%, and 21.3% [6] - The company is advancing its platform strategy, focusing on multi-category development and enhancing its market share in energy drinks [6] - The report highlights potential catalysts for stock price performance, including better-than-expected growth in core products and new product launches [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: 15.839 billion yuan - 2025: 21.042 billion yuan - 2026: 26.157 billion yuan - 2027: 31.476 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected at 40.6% for 2024, 34.1% for 2025, 24.3% for 2026, and 20.3% for 2027 [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be: - 2024: 3.327 billion yuan - 2025: 4.466 billion yuan - 2026: 5.546 billion yuan - 2027: 6.728 billion yuan - The report indicates a gross margin of approximately 45.6% for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 45.3% [5]

市公司 叶研究公司书 任杰 A0230522070003 reniie@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 报告原因:有业绩公布需要点评 | 市场数据: 2026年01月21日 | | --- | | 收盘价（元） 21.65 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） 22.17/13.85 | | 市净率 3.5 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） 5.21 | | 158,767 流通 A 股市值 (百万元) | | 上证指数/深证成指 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 基础数据: | 2025年09月30日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 6.27 | | 资产负债率% | 49.10 | | 总股本/流通 A 股 (百万) | 7,333/7,333 | | 流通 B 股/H 股 (百万) | | 年内股价与大盘对比走势： 沪深300指数 相关研究 证券分析师 投资要点: C 25Q4 业绩基本符合预期，短期业绩承压不改公司中长期成长性。公司发布 2025 年年度业绩预增公告， 公司预计 ...

Group 1: Policy Signals - The Ministry of Finance and the central bank are focusing on stimulating domestic demand, enhancing support for technological innovation, and activating private investment as key areas for policy collaboration[1] - Personal consumption loan interest subsidies have increased significantly, with the maximum subsidy per loan rising from 500 yuan to 3000 yuan, and credit card installment payments now included[1] - The central bank has lowered the interest rates on various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points to guide financing costs down[1] Group 2: Addressing Key Issues - In 2025, new household loans dropped to 3600 billion yuan, a decrease of 22910 billion yuan from 2024, indicating a significant decline in consumer credit growth[2] - The overall credit growth rate fell to 6.4% in 2025, with a 1.0 percentage point decline attributed to the drop in household loans[2] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8% in 2025, with equipment purchases showing a growth rate of 11.8%, highlighting the need for policy support to stabilize investment[3] Group 3: Expected Outcomes - Fiscal interest subsidies are expected to stabilize financial data and stimulate domestic demand, despite challenges in loan write-offs and low net interest margins for commercial banks[4] - The expansion of consumer loan interest subsidies is anticipated to support stable consumer spending, particularly in service consumption, as households shift their spending patterns[4] - New policy financial tools, if further enhanced, could provide an additional 1.5 percentage points in fiscal interest subsidies, thereby boosting investment in new infrastructure projects[4]

Investment Rating - The textile and apparel industry is rated as "Neutral" for the upcoming period, indicating that the industry is expected to perform in line with the overall market [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence in performance within the textile and apparel sector, with high-end outdoor and niche sports brands showing strong potential despite an overall slowdown in demand [3]. - Domestic retail sales for clothing and textiles reached 1.52 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, with a notable slowdown in December due to warmer winter temperatures [3]. - Export figures for the textile and apparel sector showed a decline, with total exports amounting to 293.8 billion USD, down 2.6% year-on-year, indicating a shift in supply chain dynamics towards countries like Vietnam [3]. Summary by Sections Domestic Demand - Retail sales for clothing and textiles in China reached 1.52 trillion yuan in 2025, with growth rates of 6.3%, 3.5%, and 0.6% in October, November, and December respectively [3]. - The warmer winter led to a slowdown in winter clothing sales, impacting overall performance [3]. International Demand - Textile and apparel exports totaled 293.8 billion USD in 2025, with textiles at 142.6 billion USD (up 0.4%) and apparel at 151.2 billion USD (down 5.2%) [3]. - Vietnam's textile exports grew by 7.0%, indicating a shift in orders due to tariff policies affecting different production regions [3]. Brand Performance - High-end outdoor brands and niche sports brands are expected to maintain strong growth, while traditional brands like Anta and Li Ning are projected to see varied performance, with Anta's revenue expected to decline slightly [3]. - Women's apparel is facing challenges, but companies like Xinha and Ge Li Si are expected to show improvements in profitability due to prior adjustments [3]. Home Textiles - Companies like Luolai and Water Mercury are expected to perform steadily, while Fuanna is still in a destocking phase [3]. Non-woven Fabric Industry - The non-woven fabric sector is anticipated to benefit from quality upgrades and expanding demand, with companies like Nuo Bang and Yan Jiang expected to see significant revenue growth [3]. Textile Manufacturing - The report notes that the performance of the sports manufacturing chain is under pressure due to fluctuations in brand orders, but the Australian wool industry is expected to see a rebound in demand and pricing [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-performance outdoor brands, discount retail, personal care, and sleep economy sectors for potential investment opportunities [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the building materials industry, indicating a "Look Forward" investment rating [3][4]. Core Insights - The real estate sector has experienced a downturn for five consecutive years, but there are emerging positive signals that warrant attention. The building materials industry has faced pressures such as declining demand, credit risk expansion, cost disturbances, and intensified competition [4][5]. - Over the past five years, the industry has undergone significant capacity clearance, with a cumulative decline of 38% in waterproof materials production from 2021 to 2024. In contrast, the top three companies in this sector have seen a revenue decline of only 20.9%, indicating a rapid increase in industry concentration [4][5]. - Strategic transformations have been completed by several leading building materials companies, enhancing their competitive positions and adapting to market changes. Companies like Dongfang Yuhong and Keshun have successfully restructured their channels and expanded into new markets [6]. - There is an anticipated surge in renovation demand due to the aging housing stock, with a significant portion of homes being over 20 years old. The report predicts that by 2025, second-hand housing transactions will account for 70% of the market, which will likely stimulate renovation activities [7][9]. - Policy adjustments have been noted, with government signals indicating support for the real estate sector, including tax incentives for housing transactions. This is expected to positively influence market sentiment and investment in the building materials sector [9]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The building materials industry has faced five years of challenges, but recent developments suggest a potential recovery. The report emphasizes the importance of viewing the industry from a long-term perspective [4][5]. Capacity and Production - The report highlights a significant reduction in production capacity across various segments, including a 38% decline in waterproof materials and a 1.6 billion ton reduction in cement capacity, which has alleviated supply pressures [4][5]. Strategic Transformations - Notable companies have successfully navigated strategic transformations, with improvements in asset quality and revenue growth. For instance, Dongfang Yuhong has seen a substantial increase in retail business revenue [6]. Demand Dynamics - The report anticipates a shift in demand dynamics, particularly in the renovation market, driven by an aging housing stock and changing consumer preferences. This is expected to lead to increased demand for building materials [7]. Policy Environment - Recent policy changes are viewed as supportive of the real estate market, with indications of government backing for housing transactions and urban renewal initiatives [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on core consumer building materials stocks, particularly those positioned to benefit from anticipated increases in construction activity and renovation demand [9].

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 01-21 02-21 03-21 04-21 05-21 06-21 07-21 08-21 09-21 10-21 11-21 12-21 01-21 宝丰能源 沪深300指数 (收益率) 相关研究 证券分析师 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 证 券 研 究 报 告 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | 市场数据： | 2026 年 01 月 21 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 21.65 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 22.17/13.85 | | 市净率 | 3.5 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 5.21 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 158,767 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 4,116.94 ...

2026 年 01 月 21 日 叶传动/分别 邵翼 A0230524120001 shaoyi@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 本期投资后示: O 永达汽车：豪车经销商业绩触底反弹确定性强，现金流与股息率具备吸引力。公司作为 宝马渠道核心豪车经销商，依托主机厂盈利扶持，经营周期底部复苏信号明确。一方 面，宝马等主机厂保障经销商新车毛利，叠加行业低效门店出清，BBA 等豪车车企亏损 见底；另一方面，新能源业务贡献增量，新车毛利率可观，2025年渠道上量叠加华为系 品牌起量，该业务盈利空间广阔。公司 2025 上半年净现金流超 11 亿元,配置吸引力突 出；后续宝马车型周期下半年落地，业绩弹性拐点将进一步明确，整体观点偏乐观。 相关研究 《整车出海、机器人预期强化;同时关注 业绩确定性白马 -- 2026/1/12- 2026/1/18 汽车周报》 2026/01/19 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 联系人 天成、福达 周一刻钟，大事快评（W141） 看好 O 天准科技：核心业务高增确定性强，内存短缺引发行业成本压力预警。公 ...

Group 1: Policy Signals - The Ministry of Finance and the central bank are focusing on stimulating domestic demand, enhancing support for technological innovation, and activating private investment as key areas for policy collaboration[1] - Personal consumption loan interest subsidies have increased significantly, with the maximum subsidy per loan rising from 500 yuan to 3000 yuan, and credit card installment payments now included[1] - The central bank has lowered the interest rates on various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points to guide financing costs down[1] Group 2: Addressing Key Issues - In 2025, new household loans dropped to 360 billion yuan, a decrease of 22,910 billion yuan from 2024, indicating a significant decline in consumer credit growth[2] - The overall credit growth rate fell to 6.4% in 2025, with a 1.0 percentage point decline attributed to the drop in household loans[2] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8% in 2025, with equipment purchases being a major growth driver, increasing by 11.8%[3] Group 3: Expected Outcomes - Fiscal interest subsidies are expected to stabilize financial data and stimulate domestic demand, despite banks facing challenges in expanding loan volumes due to low net interest margins of 1.4%[4] - The expansion of consumer loan interest subsidies is anticipated to support stable consumer spending, particularly in service consumption, as households shift their spending patterns[4] - New policy financial tools, if further enhanced, could provide an additional 1.5 percentage points in fiscal interest subsidies, thereby boosting investment in new infrastructure projects[4]