Market Overview - The US added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly exceeding the expected 51,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%[3] - The US dollar index increased by 0.87% to 100.2, indicating the end of a weak dollar environment[3] - Global risk assets mostly declined, with significant drops in equity markets, particularly in A-shares and the Hang Seng Tech Index[3] Fund Flows - In the week ending November 19, 2025, foreign capital inflows into the Chinese stock market totaled $318 million, while domestic capital inflows reached $3.677 billion[3] - The US equity market saw a substantial inflow of $11.8 billion, while fixed income funds in the US attracted $10.99 billion[15] Valuation Metrics - As of November 21, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index's valuation percentile was at 81.9%, second only to the S&P 500 and France's CAC40, but still significantly lower than US equities[3] - The risk-adjusted return percentile for the S&P 500 decreased from 47% to 39%, while the Nasdaq's dropped from 46% to 35%[3] Risk Sentiment - The S&P 500 closed at 6,602.99, below the 20-day moving average, with an implied volatility trend on the rise[3] - The put-call ratio for the S&P 500 decreased to 1.03 from 1.14, indicating a marginal increase in market optimism[3] Economic Data - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December rose to 71% from 44.4% the previous week, with an 80% chance of rates falling to 3.5%-3.75% by January 2026[3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry, suggesting that the industry is expected to perform in line with the overall market [23]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a decline of 6.9% this week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 3.9% [3][5]. - The overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector stands at 28.9 times earnings, ranking it 10th among 31 primary sectors [5][3]. - Key events include the acceptance of a new drug application for 百利天恒's drug iza-bren, which showed promising results in clinical trials for nasopharyngeal cancer [9]. - 泽璟制药's ZG006 received orphan drug designation from the FDA, indicating its potential in treating neuroendocrine cancer [10]. - 盟科药业 decided to terminate its stock issuance plan due to disagreements among major shareholders [11]. Market Performance - The pharmaceutical index's performance ranked 26th out of 31 sectors, with various sub-sectors showing significant declines, including raw materials (-8.6%) and chemical preparations (-6.8%) [3][5]. - The report highlights a focus on innovative drug sectors and medical devices, with specific companies recommended for investment [2]. Recent Key Events - 百利天恒's drug iza-bren demonstrated a complete response rate of 54.6% compared to 27.0% for standard chemotherapy, indicating its effectiveness [9]. - ZG006 showed an overall response rate of 38.5% in late-stage neuroendocrine cancer patients, with no severe adverse reactions reported [10]. - 盟科药业's stock issuance plan was halted due to internal conflicts, which may impact its operational stability [11].

Group 1: Employment Data Analysis - In September, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding market expectations[4] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4% in September[4] - The labor force participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.4%[4] Group 2: Wage Growth and Job Quality - Average hourly earnings increased by only 0.2% month-on-month in September, down from 0.4% in August[4] - The quality of non-farm data is questioned, as the response rate for the survey was 80.2%, significantly above historical averages, indicating higher reliability[4][18] Group 3: Interest Rate Outlook - Market expectations for a December rate cut fluctuated, with probabilities rising to nearly 70% following dovish comments from Fed officials[6][8] - The FOMC's internal division on rate cuts shows a support-to-opposition ratio of approximately 4:5[7] Group 4: Broader Economic Indicators - High-frequency ADP data showed weakness in October, while initial jobless claims remained stable, suggesting mixed signals in the labor market[5][26] - The U.S. government announced a trade framework to lower food tariffs, while Japan proposed a fiscal stimulus plan worth 21.3 trillion yen[8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis this period, but are expected to increase significantly next period. The issuance/net financing of local government bonds in this period (2025.11.17 - 2025.11.23) was 184.659 billion yuan/126.343 billion yuan, and the expected issuance/net financing for next period (2025.11.24 - 2025.11.30) is 351.461 billion yuan/326.313 billion yuan [2]. - The issuance of new local government bonds slowed down this period and is expected to speed up significantly next period. As of November 21, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 90.3% and 95.6% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to be 91.4% and 100.7% considering the expected issuance next period [2]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds from November to December 2025 is 713.3 billion yuan in total, with new special bonds amounting to 347.5 billion yuan [2]. - The spreads between local government bonds and treasury bonds for 10 - year and 30 - year terms narrowed this period, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week - on - week basis. As of November 21, 2025, the spreads were 14.34BP and 18.24BP respectively, narrowing by 1.26BP and 3.95BP compared to November 14, 2025 [2]. - The spreads between 15/20/30 - year, especially 15 - year, local government bonds and treasury bonds still have certain value for investment [2]. 3. Summary Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 This period, the issuance volume of local government bonds increased, and the weighted issuance term lengthened - The issuance volume of local government bonds decreased this period compared to the previous period, but is expected to increase next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 14.30 years, longer than 13.90 years in the previous period [2][5][10]. - As of November 21, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 90.3% and 95.6% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to be 91.4% and 100.7% considering the expected issuance next period. The cumulative issuance progress is lower than that of the same period in 2023 and 2024 [2][13][16]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds from November to December 2025 is 713.3 billion yuan in total, with new special bonds amounting to 347.5 billion yuan. As of November 21, 2025, 29 regions have disclosed the planned issuance [2][24][25]. - This period, special new special bonds worth 4.9 billion yuan were issued, and special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts were issued at 0 billion yuan and 40 billion yuan respectively [2][20][21]. 3.2 This period, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week - on - week basis - As of November 21, 2025, the 10 - year and 30 - year spreads between local government bonds and treasury bonds were 14.34BP and 18.24BP respectively, narrowing by 1.26BP and 3.95BP compared to November 14, 2025, and are at the 18.00% and 69.70% historical quantiles since 2023 [2][30][34]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.80%, up from 0.71% in the previous period [2][37][38]. - The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Xiamen, Beijing, and Jiangxi are better than the national average [2]. - The spreads between 15/20/30 - year, especially 15 - year, local government bonds and treasury bonds still have certain value for investment. Since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread [2].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry, suggesting it is expected to perform in line with the overall market [24]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a decline of 6.9% this week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 3.9% [3][5]. - The overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector stands at 28.9 times earnings, ranking it 10th among 31 primary sectors [5][12]. - Key events include the acceptance of a new drug application for 百利天恒's drug iza-bren, which showed promising results in clinical trials for nasopharyngeal cancer [9]. - 泽璟制药's ZG006 received FDA orphan drug designation for treating neuroendocrine cancer, demonstrating significant efficacy and safety in clinical trials [10]. - 盟科药业 decided to terminate its stock issuance plan due to disagreements among major shareholders, which may impact its operational stability [11]. Market Performance Summary - The pharmaceutical index ranked 26th among 31 sub-industries this week, with various segments showing declines, including raw materials (-8.6%) and chemical preparations (-6.8%) [3][5]. - The report highlights a focus on innovative drug sectors and medical devices, recommending specific companies for investment [2].

Group 1 - The effectiveness of the transmission of policy interest rates to the financial market and the real economy has significantly improved, but there is still room for improvement in the transmission to bond yields [2][7][10] - A reasonable interest rate comparison relationship is essential for the transmission of monetary policy, and different types of interest rates should maintain a reasonable relationship without long-term significant deviations [7][10] - The transmission of funding rates to bond yields has shown an overall improvement trend since 2025, but there remains considerable room for improvement in this area [7][10] Group 2 - The current representative interest rate comparison indicates that the government bond yield has returned to a relatively reasonable range, with limited short-term downward space [10][11] - The downward adjustment of deposit rates is likely to outpace that of loan rates, suggesting that institutional investors may consider early positioning [14][18] - The relative comparison of loan rates and bond rates shows limited short-term compression space for bond yields, emphasizing the need to focus on the certainty of mid-to-short-term credit bond arbitrage value [19][20] Group 3 - The static value of ultra-long-term bonds is highlighted for bank institutions, while the current configuration value of loan rates is not apparent [27][30] - For public funds, the cost-effectiveness of mid-to-short-term credit bonds is relatively higher, as the long-term bond yields face limited downward expectations and upward space [27][33] - The bond market is expected to continue a narrow fluctuation trend, with a recommendation to focus on the certainty of mid-to-short-term credit bond arbitrage value [34]

3 元 3 - 1 - 2025 年 11 月 23 日 本周重磅发布策略报告,挖掘新消费、看好全球制造 本期投资提示: -纺织服装行业周报 20251123 相关研究 《 澳毛价格企稳回升，全运会开幕提振户 外运动板块——纺织服装行业周报 20251116》 2025/11/16 《 10 月纺服出口承压,中美磋商利好有望 修复出口链一 -- 纺织服装行业周报 20251110》 2025/11/10 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanqlp@swsresearch.com 求佳峰 A0230523060001 qiujf@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱本伦 A0230125090001 zhubl@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱本伦 (8621)23297818× zhubl@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 时代小 本周纺织服饰板块表现强于市场。11 月 17 日 ~ 11 月 21 日, SW 纺织服饰指数下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The North - China Stock Exchange (NSE) 50 index dropped 9.04% this week, with trading volume and turnover decreasing. Market sentiment is cautious, and industry structure has a significant impact on the NSE. The proportion of strong stocks in the NSE has fallen to 7.4%, and short - term rebounds are expected, but medium - term rebounds require policy and macro - environment support. [6][9][13] - It is recommended to focus on index - weighted component stocks and companies about to enter the NSE 50 index under the expectation of NSE 50 ETF, and also pay attention to the technology + cycle combination, such as Tongli Co., Ltd., BTR New Energy Materials Inc., etc. [13][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Dapeng Industry Rose 12 - fold on the First Day, and the Proportion of Strong Stocks in the NSE Approached the Extreme Value - The NSE 50 dropped 9.04% this week, and trading volume decreased by 16.2%. The sharp adjustment of the Shanghai Composite Index and the decline of micro - cap stocks led to a large - scale adjustment of the NSE index. The lithium battery, chemical, and other sectors with strong previous performance had a large adjustment range. [9] - The industry structure has a great influence on the NSE. The lithium battery, automobile, and basic chemical industries have a high proportion in the NSE. The fluctuations in industry expectations and the decline of leading companies at home and abroad have led to the decline of specialized and sophisticated companies. The lithium battery + automobile sector accounts for about 30% of the NSE 50 weight, dragging down the NSE 50. [10] - The market sentiment index of the NSE has entered the freezing point again. Short - term rebounds are expected, but medium - term rebounds need policy and macro - environment support. Attention should be paid to value - type stocks with rapidly falling valuations. [13] 2. The 50 Index Declined, and the Turnover Decreased Month - on - Month - From November 17th to November 21st, 2025, the NSE 50 dropped 9.04%. The median PE of NSE companies was 40.72 times, a month - on - month decline. The weekly turnover was 89.573 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 16.21%. As of Thursday, the margin trading balance was 7.76 billion yuan, a decrease of 128 million yuan from last week. [16] 3. New Stocks on the NSE - This week, two new stocks, Beikuang Testing and Dapeng Industry, were listed on the NSE. As of November 21, 2025, there were 284 listed companies on the NSE. Jingchuang Electric applied for listing, and Aide Technology, Tongling Technology, and Jingqiang Technology passed the review. Next week, 0 companies will be listed, 0 will apply for listing, and 3 companies (Yongda Chemical, Medela, and Haifeiman) will be on the review meeting. [3][28][35] - Beikuang Testing (920160.BJ) belongs to the social service industry, with a first - day increase of 295.52%. Dapeng Industry (920091.BJ) belongs to the machinery and equipment industry, with a first - day increase of 1211.11%. [28][31] 4. The Rise - to - Fall Ratio of Individual Stocks on the NSE was 0.04, and Haixi Communication and Meideng Technology Led the Gains 4.1 Individual Stock Price Changes - Among NSE stocks this week, 10 stocks rose, 271 fell, and 1 remained flat, with a rise - to - fall ratio of 0.04. The top five gainers (excluding new listings this week) were *ST Yunchuang, Haixi Communication, Meideng Technology, Chengdian Optoelectronics, and Dadi Electric. The top five losers were Luqiao Information, Taipeng Intelligent, Litong Technology, Anda Technology, and Lijia Technology. [37] 4.2 Top Five Weekly Turnovers - The top five stocks in terms of weekly turnover (excluding new listings this week) were Dana Biotech, Gaishi Food, Meideng Technology, Tianhong Lithium Battery, and Dier Chemical. [42] 4.3 Important Announcements - Many companies such as Zhisheng Information, Tianrun Technology, and Aweite made important announcements, including signing contracts, obtaining patents, and adjusting investment projects. [44][45] 5. This Week's Important News - The NSE issued the "Guidelines for Continuous Supervision of Listed Companies No. 14 - Continuous Supervision of Sponsoring Institutions" to standardize the continuous supervision of sponsoring institutions over listed companies. [46] 6. This Week's New Third - Board Situation - As of November 21, 2025, there were 6,058 listed companies on the New Third - Board. This week, 8 new companies were listed, and 9 were delisted. The planned new financing was 56 million yuan, and the completed financing was 372 million yuan. [47][49]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the petrochemical sector, highlighting specific companies for investment opportunities [10]. Core Insights - The IEA projects that under the Current Policies Scenario (CPS), global oil demand will steadily increase, reaching 105 million barrels per day by 2035 and 113 million barrels per day by 2050, with an average annual growth of approximately 500,000 barrels per day [3][4]. - In the Established Policies Scenario (STEPS), oil demand is expected to peak around 2030, with a decline anticipated thereafter, primarily driven by the rapid growth of electric vehicles in China [6][10]. - Emerging markets, particularly India, Southeast Asia, and Africa, are expected to account for nearly all oil demand growth, while developed economies will see a decline in consumption [4][6]. Summary by Sections Oil Demand Projections - Under CPS, oil demand is projected to rise to 105 million barrels per day by 2035, with significant contributions from petrochemical, aviation, and industrial sectors [3][4]. - In STEPS, oil demand is expected to peak around 2030, with a subsequent decline influenced by the rise of electric vehicles, particularly in China [6]. Regional Demand Insights - India is projected to lead global oil demand growth, increasing from 5.5 million barrels per day in 2024 to 8 million barrels per day by 2035 [4]. - Africa's oil demand is expected to grow by one-third to approximately 6 million barrels per day by 2035, driven by road transport needs [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, due to tightening supply and improving market conditions [10]. - It also suggests focusing on major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which are expected to benefit from improved cost structures and competitive advantages [10]. Price Trends and Market Conditions - As of November 21, Brent crude oil prices were reported at $62.56 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 2.84% from the previous week [15]. - The report notes that the overall oil price is expected to maintain a neutral level through 2026, with limited downside potential [10].

Group 1: A-Share Valuation Overview - The overall valuation of the A-share market as of November 21, 2025, shows the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) with a PE of 20.6x and a PB of 1.7x, positioned at the 74th and 36th historical percentiles respectively [2][5] - The Shanghai 50 Index has a PE of 11.9x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 64th and 43rd historical percentiles [2][5] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 37.7x and a PB of 4.9x, which are at the 27th and 51st historical percentiles, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to other indices [2][5] Group 2: Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Real Estate, Retail, and IT Services [2][7] - The Semiconductor and Communication sectors have PB valuations above the 85th historical percentile, indicating high market expectations [2][7] - The Medical Services industry is noted for having both PE and PB valuations below the 15th historical percentile, suggesting potential undervaluation [2][7] Group 3: Industry Midstream Economic Tracking - In the New Energy sector, the photovoltaic industry chain is experiencing a decline in spot prices, with upstream polysilicon prices rising by 7.8% while downstream battery and module prices are under downward pressure [2][3] - The real estate chain shows a slight increase in rebar prices by 0.6% and cement prices by 0.4%, while glass prices are under pressure due to high inventory levels [2][3] - In the consumption sector, pork prices have decreased by 0.8%, while the aviation sector shows a recovery with a 8.9% year-on-year increase in passenger turnover in October 2025 [2][3] Group 4: Technology and TMT Sector Insights - The domestic integrated circuit and optoelectronic device production increased by 10.2% year-on-year from January to October 2025, indicating growth in the technology sector [2][3] - The communication sector has seen a 16.9% year-on-year decline in optical communication module export value, reflecting challenges in international markets [2][3] Group 5: Commodity and Cyclical Industry Trends - The metals market is under pressure with copper prices down by 0.6% and aluminum down by 1.8%, influenced by tighter liquidity conditions [2][3] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.8% to $62.51 per barrel, reflecting global supply dynamics [2][3] - The coal market remains stable with prices for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal holding steady, while coking coal prices decreased by 2.0% [2][3]