Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the improvement in PPI year-on-year will drive corporate profit recovery, which is a key factor for foreign capital returning to Chinese assets [3] - It is anticipated that the RMB exchange rate will continue to appreciate in 2026, leading to a re-evaluation of Chinese assets by foreign investors [3][12] - The report highlights that during historical phases of PPI recovery, both A-share and Hong Kong stock ROE have shown significant improvement, indicating a positive correlation between PPI growth and corporate profitability [16] Historical Review - Historical data shows a strong positive correlation between the RMB exchange rate and PPI year-on-year growth, particularly during phases of PPI recovery and RMB appreciation [7][9] - The report outlines four cycles of RMB appreciation and depreciation since 2015, noting that during appreciation phases, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks generally experienced price increases [10][12] - The report identifies that the leading sectors during the appreciation phases were internet and cyclical stocks, benefiting from improved profitability expectations [15] Profitability Trends - The report indicates that during periods of PPI year-on-year growth, there is a notable improvement in ROE for both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, suggesting a direct impact of PPI on corporate earnings [16] - The report notes that as of the third quarter of 2025, A-share ROE has stabilized at the bottom, and Hong Kong stock ROE is expected to improve alongside PPI growth in 2026 [3][22] Foreign Investment Insights - The report highlights that foreign capital has been reassessing Chinese assets, with a significant increase in foreign participation in Hong Kong IPOs in 2025, indicating heightened interest in core assets [4] - The report mentions that the A-H premium is expected to continue narrowing, reflecting increased foreign interest in Hong Kong-listed core assets [4] - It is noted that over 30 major market cap companies in the A-share and Hong Kong markets belong to sectors such as technology, high-end manufacturing, and quality dividend stocks, which are expected to benefit from improving profitability [3][4] Sector Focus - The report identifies key sectors expected to benefit from improving ROE in 2026, including power equipment, internet (AI-related core assets), and cyclical sectors [3] - It emphasizes that sectors with strong competitive advantages, such as high-end manufacturing and specialty consumption, are likely to attract foreign investment [3] - The report also points out that domestic funds have room to increase their holdings in Hong Kong stocks, with significant portions of public fund portfolios allocated to Hong Kong [4][22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's performance met expectations, with potassium fertilizer market conditions continuing to improve, and ongoing projects expected to be completed within the year [1][2] - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for Q1-Q3 2025, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 55.76% and net profit growth of 163.01% [7] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 18.87 billion, 31.14 billion, and 43.59 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE valuations of 21X, 13X, and 9X [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are 6,550 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 84.6% [3] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 1,887 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 98.5% [3] - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 54.7% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 13.7% [3] Market Data - As of November 17, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 42.44 yuan, with a market capitalization of 34,453 million [4] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 3.0 and a net asset value per share of 14.13 yuan [4] Recent Developments - The company has seen a rise in potassium fertilizer demand driven by domestic agricultural policies and changes in consumer dietary habits [7] - The company’s major shareholder, Huineng Group, has increased its stake to 14.05%, providing financial support for future growth [7] - The company is on track to achieve a production capacity of 5 million tons of potassium fertilizer annually, with plans to expand further based on market demand [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the ultra-pure metal sputtering target sector, recognized as one of the top ten semiconductor material companies in China [6] - The company plans to raise 1.95 billion yuan through a private placement to invest in projects related to electrostatic chucks, ultra-pure metal targets, and to supplement working capital [6] - The semiconductor components business is experiencing rapid revenue growth, accounting for over 20% of total revenue [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 3,605 million yuan in 2024 to 7,346 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 27.8% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 401 million yuan in 2025 to 923 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 37.9% [5] - The company’s gross margin is forecasted to remain stable around 28.5% to 28.9% over the next few years [5]

Group 1: Market Trends - The pace of new listings has slowed, with 12 new private placement projects added in the last two weeks, a decrease of 10 projects compared to the previous period[2] - The number of terminated projects also decreased by 8, totaling 8 terminations in the same period[2] - The number of projects approved by the review committee increased by 5, totaling 12 approvals, while the number of projects registered by the CSRC decreased by 13, totaling 2 registrations[2] Group 2: Project Analysis - Fangzheng Technology plans to raise up to 1.98 billion CNY for an AI and high-density interconnect circuit board project, expected to generate an annual output value of approximately 2 billion CNY[2] - Deler Co. intends to acquire 100% of Aizhuo Technology and raise 0.83 billion CNY for smart upgrades, with the target company's valuation at 270 million CNY, reflecting a 203.33% increase[2][26] Group 3: Pricing and Discount Rates - The average base discount rate for the newly listed projects was approximately 14.34%, with a market price discount rate of 21.94% for the only competitive project listed in the last two weeks[30] - The average market price discount rate for two pricing projects was 48.99%[31] Group 4: Lock-up Period Returns - Among the three competitive projects that were unlocked, two had positive returns, with an average absolute return of 21.56% and an average excess return of -22.25%[42] - The average market price discount rate for these projects was 11.04%, indicating a slight increase from the previous period[42] Group 5: Risk Factors - Risks include slower-than-expected progress in private placement reviews, fluctuations in secondary market stock prices, and changes in the market environment for private placement pricing[49]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the bull market is not over, with a significant shift in Chinese residents' asset allocation towards equities still in its early stages [3][34][51] - The transition from "following" to "leading" in external circulation is a key theme, highlighting the need for A-shares to embrace competitive thinking [3][12][20] - The report outlines a two-phase bull market, with "Bull Market 1.0" expected to peak in spring 2026 and "Bull Market 2.0" potentially starting in the second half of 2026 [4][6][7] Group 1: Competitive Landscape - Global competition is intensifying, and A-shares must adopt a competitive mindset to navigate this environment [3][20][22] - The shift in external circulation from "following" to "leading" reflects China's growing competitiveness and the need to enhance its global influence [3][12][19] - The report suggests that the A-share market can reflect the outcomes of competitive events, impacting pricing and risk preferences [3][22] Group 2: Asset Allocation Trends - The report introduces a "resident asset allocation migration degree indicator," indicating that the migration towards equities is still in its early phase, with significant potential for growth [34][36] - Historical data shows that the peak of equity allocation occurred in 2021, followed by a decline until 2024, with a rebound expected in 2025 [36][51] - The report highlights that the accumulation of profit-making effects in the A-share market is undergoing a qualitative change, which will improve conditions for capital inflow over time [3][34][51] Group 3: Bull Market Phases - "Bull Market 1.0" is characterized by a focus on technology sectors, particularly AI, which may face short-term adjustments but is expected to continue its long-term trend [4][6][7] - "Bull Market 2.0" is anticipated to be a comprehensive bull market driven by cyclical improvements in fundamentals, emerging industry trends, and increased asset allocation towards equities [4][6][7] - The report predicts that by mid-2026, a clearer visibility of supply-demand dynamics will emerge, supporting the transition to "Bull Market 2.0" [4][6][7] Group 4: Industry Outlook - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including technology, manufacturing, and emerging industries, which are expected to benefit from cyclical improvements and policy support [4][6][7] - The anticipated recovery in the manufacturing sector and the emergence of new demand sources are crucial for the overall market outlook [4][6][7] - The report suggests that the transition from "Bull Market 1.0" to "Bull Market 2.0" will involve a shift in investment focus from high-growth technology stocks to cyclical and value-oriented sectors [4][6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for InnoCare Pharma [8][16] Core Insights - InnoCare Pharma's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 60% year-on-year, reaching RMB 1.12 billion, with a net loss of RMB 64 million, which is a 77% year-on-year reduction [5][12] - The company has raised its sales target for its key product, orelabrutinib, from over 35% year-on-year growth to over 40% for 2025, following strong sales performance [6][13] - The company has a robust pipeline for both liquid tumors and autoimmune diseases, with several products in various stages of development [7][14][15] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, orelabrutinib sales reached RMB 1.01 billion, a 46% increase year-on-year, with third-quarter sales of RMB 373 million, reflecting a 35% year-on-year and 14% quarter-on-quarter growth [5][12] - Research and development expenses for the first three quarters of 2025 were RMB 676 million, a 10% increase year-on-year, while selling expenses rose by 41% to RMB 386 million [5][12] - As of September 2025, the company had approximately RMB 7.76 billion in cash on hand [5][12] Future Outlook - The company plans to submit a New Drug Application (NDA) for orelabrutinib for the treatment of ITP in the first half of 2026 and expects to read out phase IIb data for SLE by the end of 2025 [7][14] - InnoCare Pharma anticipates submitting 5-7 IND applications targeting malignant tumors and autoimmune diseases in 2026 [15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating based on the AHP score, with a score of 3.39 indicating a position in the upper-middle tier of the AHP model for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [8][11]. Core Insights - The company focuses on the research, design, and sales of self-developed full-function GPUs, with a strategic shift towards high-margin, high-performance segments, particularly in AI computing [11][19]. - The company has achieved significant advancements in GPU architecture, enabling breakthroughs in computing power and product performance that meet international standards [19][20]. - The AI chip market in China is projected to reach 1.3368 trillion yuan by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 53.7% from 2025 to 2029, indicating substantial growth potential for the company [19][24]. Summary by Sections 1. AHP Score and Expected Allocation Ratio - The AHP score for the company is calculated at 3.39, placing it in the 56.1% percentile of the AHP model, indicating a strong position in the market [8][10]. 2. Highlights and Features of the New Stock 2.1 Core Team and Self-Developed GPU Architecture - The core team comprises professionals with extensive experience from leading international companies, focusing on self-developed full-function GPUs [11][15]. 2.2 Full-Function GPU Achievements - The company has developed a comprehensive product system that includes AI computing, cloud computing, and personal computing applications, with significant revenue growth expected from AI computing products [11][19]. 2.3 Capitalizing on AI and Graphics Opportunities - The company plans to invest in the development of next-generation AI training and inference chips, graphics chips, and AI SoC chips, aiming to strengthen its product performance and technology barriers [24][26]. 3. Comparable Company Financial Metrics 3.1 Revenue and Profit Trends - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 0.46 billion yuan in 2022, increasing to 7.02 billion yuan by the first half of 2025, while net losses are expected to narrow [28][30]. 3.2 R&D Expenditure Trends - R&D expenses have been increasing, with the company spending 11.16 million yuan in 2022 and 5.57 million yuan in the first half of 2025, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [34][36]. 3.3 Profitability and Debt Levels - The company’s gross margin has improved significantly, with a gross margin of 70.71% in 2024, while the debt-to-asset ratio has been relatively high, indicating potential financial risks [39][40]. 4. Fundraising Projects and Development Vision - The company plans to raise funds for the development of new AI training and inference chips, graphics chips, and AI SoC chips, which are expected to enhance its competitive position in the GPU market [42][43].

室 坑车工 2025 年 11 月 17 日 时代小说书 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 册 分歧污 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 关注军贸及消耗类武器, 配置周期 国防军工行业周报（2025年第 47 周） 本期投资提示: 上周申万国防军工指数下跌 2.15%，中证军工龙头指数下跌 1.53%，同期上证综指下 ● 跌 0.18%, 沪深 300 下跌 1.08%, 创业板指下跌 3.01%, 申万国防军工指数跑赢创业 板指、跑输沪深 300、跑输上证综指、跑输军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，上周 国防军工板块 2.15%的跌幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 27 位。2、从我们构建 的军工集团指数变化来看，上周中证民参 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the recent week, most A - share ETFs declined, while gold ETFs led the gains with a 3.26% increase, and the technology sector mostly fell. Funds were deployed in the science - innovation sector against the trend, and the ETFs targeting SGE Gold 9999 had the largest net inflow of funds [2][9] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Index Product Establishment, Raising, and Application - **Product Establishment and Listing**: Five products were listed, with a concentration on Hong Kong Stock Connect products. Eight products were established, including index - enhanced products such as Zhongjia Beizheng 50 Component Index Enhanced A and Huatai Baorui Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board Comprehensive Index Enhanced A [1][4] - **Product Issuance Information**: Two index products ended their fundraising in the coming week, and no index products were set to start fundraising [6] - **Product Application Information**: A total of 28 index products were applied for in the recent week, maintaining the diversified characteristics of industry themes, including 18 theme funds and 6 linked funds [7] 2. ETF Market Review - **Overall ETF Performance**: Most A - share ETFs declined, with the declines of Kechuang 50ETF, ChiNext 50ETF, and CSI 500ETF being - 3.83%, - 3.67%, and - 1.24% respectively. Among Hong Kong - stock ETFs, only the Hang Seng ETF rose by 1.30%, and among US - stock ETFs, the S&P 500ETF rose by 2.68%. In commodity ETFs, the non - ferrous ETF rose by 1.26%, and gold rebounded strongly by 3.26% [2][9] - **Industry - based A - share ETF Performance**: The medical category rose significantly, with the Chinese medicine ETF having the highest increase of 3.61%. The chemical ETF also had a relatively high increase of 3.38%. The technology category declined significantly, with the communication ETF, electronic ETF, and chip ETF having declines of - 6.99%, - 5.62%, and - 4.81% respectively [2][13] - **Cross - border ETF Performance**: In the recent week, the major broad - based indices of cross - border markets had mixed performance. The France CAC40 had the highest increase of 2.77%. Among corresponding ETFs, Boshi Hang Seng Healthcare ETF and Hua'an France CAC40ETF rose significantly, while Huatai Baorui CSI Korea Exchange Sino - Korean Semiconductor ETF declined by 4.20% [16] 3. ETF Fund Flow - **Overall ETF Scale**: As of November 14, 2025, there were 1304 ETFs in the entire market, with a total scale of 563.3719 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.914 billion yuan from the previous week. A - share and cross - border ETFs ranked first and second in scale [22] - **Non - monetary ETF Fund Inflow and Outflow**: Among non - monetary ETFs, the ETFs targeting SGE Gold 9999 had the largest net inflow of 5.567 billion yuan, while the ETFs of CSI A500 had the largest net outflow of 4.04 billion yuan [24] - **High - Inflow and High - Liquidity ETFs**: Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board 50ETF and Southern ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF had high fund inflows of 2.495 billion yuan and 2.028 billion yuan respectively. Haifutong CSI Short - term Financing ETF and E Fund CSI Hong Kong Securities Investment Theme ETF had high liquidity [26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][7][15] Core Insights - The company has raised its 2025 sales target from a year-on-year growth of over 35% to over 40% due to strong sales performance of its key product, orelabrutinib, which saw a 46% year-on-year increase in sales to RMB 1.01 billion in the first three quarters of 2025 [4][5][12] - The company reported a revenue of RMB 1.12 billion for the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a 60% year-on-year growth, with a net loss of RMB 64 million, which is a 77% reduction compared to the previous year [4][11] - The company has a robust pipeline in both oncology and autoimmune diseases, with several products in various stages of development, including orelabrutinib and ICP-332 [5][6][13][14] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company recorded a revenue of RMB 1.12 billion, with a net loss of RMB 64 million, and a third-quarter revenue of RMB 384 million, marking a 38% year-on-year increase [4][11] - Research and development expenses for the first three quarters were RMB 676 million, a 10% increase year-on-year, while selling expenses rose by 41% to RMB 386 million [4][11] - The company had approximately RMB 7.76 billion in cash as of September 2025, providing a solid financial foundation for ongoing and future projects [4][11] Sales and Product Development - Orelabrutinib's sales reached RMB 373 million in the third quarter of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 35% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 14% [5][12] - The company is advancing its autoimmune pipeline, with plans to submit a new drug application for orelabrutinib for ITP in the first half of 2026 and to read out phase IIb data for SLE by the end of 2025 [6][13] - The company expects to submit 5-7 IND applications targeting malignant tumors and autoimmune diseases in 2026, indicating a strong early-stage pipeline [14]