Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is stable for 2026, with emerging sectors expected to gain higher investment opportunities due to the implementation of major national strategies [3][4]. Core Insights - The construction and decoration industry saw a weekly increase of 5.72%, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index [4][6]. - Key sectors with the highest weekly gains included steel structures (+14.51%), professional engineering (+11.49%), and ecological landscaping (+7.63%) [3][6]. - Notable companies with significant weekly stock performance included Zhite New Materials (+148.84%), China Nuclear Engineering (+34.50%), and Yaxiang Integration (+31.41%) [3][9]. Industry Performance - The construction industry outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 5.72% compared to the index's 2.79% [4][6]. - The top three sub-sectors for weekly performance were steel structures, professional engineering, and ecological landscaping, with corresponding company performances highlighted [6][9]. Major Changes in the Industry - The Ministry of Transport emphasized accelerating the construction of major railway projects and promoting multimodal transport [10][11]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, along with other departments, initiated actions to promote green consumption and low-carbon production methods [10][11]. Key Company Updates - Jinggong Steel Structure signed 698 contracts in 2026, with a total contract value of 24.27 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [12]. - Honglu Steel Structure reported a total new contract value of 29.102 billion yuan, with a steel structure output of 5.0207 million tons, marking an 11.3% year-on-year increase [12][13]. - The company Di Tie Design's subsidiary signed a contract worth 311 million yuan, accounting for 11.32% of its 2024 revenue [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for quality real estate companies and commercial properties [2][24]. Core Insights - The real estate sector is experiencing a bottoming out phase, with positive policy factors accumulating. Recent central government directives emphasize stabilizing the real estate market, indicating a potential shift in policy support [2][24]. - The report notes that the current valuation levels for some quality companies are at historical lows, making them attractive investment opportunities [2][24]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transaction Volume - In the week of January 3-9, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.784 million square meters, a decrease of 57.3% week-on-week. First and second-tier cities saw a 58.2% decline, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 40.2% drop [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home transactions in January (up to January 9) decreased by 40.9% compared to the same period last year, with first and second-tier cities down 40.6% and third and fourth-tier cities down 44.2% [4][6]. Second-Hand Home Transaction Volume - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.26 million square meters, reflecting a 12.6% increase week-on-week. However, year-to-date transactions are down 23.3% compared to the same period last year [10][12]. Inventory and Sales Ratio - In the week of January 3-9, 2026, 15 cities launched 770,000 square meters of new homes, with total sales of 640,000 square meters, resulting in a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.83. The average monthly inventory turnover for the last three months is 21.6 months, a decrease of 0.24 months [18][24]. Policy and News Tracking - Recent policy updates include an extension of loan financing for white-listed projects from 2 years to 5 years, aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [2][24]. - Local governments are implementing various supportive measures, such as tax relief for property taxes in Shanghai and talent attraction policies in Nanjing, which include living subsidies and expanded housing rental support [24][27].

Group 1: U.S. Real Estate Market Challenges - The U.S. real estate market is currently facing a significant contradiction, primarily due to insufficient demand, with supply shortages being secondary[2] - As of January 2025, the average monthly cost of homeownership is $3,060, accounting for 43.2% of household income, significantly higher than the $2,227 monthly rental cost[2] - To bring homeownership costs down to rental levels, mortgage rates would need to decrease from the current 6.2% to 3.7%[2] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Impact on Housing Demand - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates 1-2 times in 2026, but the long-term interest rates may not decline significantly due to resilient consumer spending and other economic factors[3] - The mortgage rates are closely tied to the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is projected to remain around 4.0% by the end of 2026, limiting the potential for substantial reductions in mortgage rates[3] Group 3: Trump's Real Estate Policies - Trump's administration has proposed five key policies aimed at stimulating the real estate market, including transferable mortgages and a ban on large institutional purchases of single-family homes[4] - However, the effectiveness of these policies is questionable, as only about 1% of U.S. homes are owned by large institutional investors, and the proposed measures may have limited impact on demand[4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market performance [2][25]. Core Insights - The construction sector has shown a strong performance with a weekly increase of 5.72%, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index [4][5]. - Key sub-sectors like steel structures and professional engineering have demonstrated significant growth, with notable companies like Zhite New Materials and Honglu Steel Structure showing exceptional stock performance [4][7]. - The report highlights the government's focus on infrastructure development, particularly in railway projects and green consumption initiatives, which are expected to drive investment opportunities in the sector [11][14]. Industry Performance - The construction industry outperformed major indices with a weekly increase of 5.72%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 2.79% [4][5]. - The best-performing sub-sectors for the week included steel structures (+14.51%), professional engineering (+11.49%), and ecological landscaping (+7.63%) [7][10]. Key Company Updates - Honglu Steel Structure signed contracts worth 291.02 billion yuan in 2026, marking a 2.84% year-on-year increase, with a steel structure output of 502.07 million tons, up 11.3% [14]. - Zhite New Materials experienced a remarkable stock increase of 148.84% in the week, reflecting strong market interest [11][10]. - Precision Steel Structure secured 698 new contracts with a total value of 242.7 billion yuan, representing a 10.5% year-on-year growth [14]. Government Initiatives - The Ministry of Transport emphasized accelerating major railway project construction and promoting multi-modal transport systems [11][14]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, along with other departments, launched initiatives to promote green consumption and low-carbon production methods [11][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2]. Core Views - The fundamentals of the real estate industry are still bottoming out, but positive policy factors are accumulating. Recent policies include extending loan financing for whitelist projects from 2 years to 5 years and various local government initiatives to support housing and talent retention [2][26]. - The report highlights that the real estate market has undergone a deep adjustment, and with recent central government calls to stabilize the market, there is an expectation for positive policy changes ahead. The current valuation levels for quality companies are attractive [2][26]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transaction Volume - For the week of January 3-9, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.784 million square meters, a decrease of 57.3% week-on-week. Among these, first and second-tier cities saw a 58.2% decline, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 40.2% drop [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home transactions in January (up to January 9) decreased by 40.9% compared to the same period last year, with first and second-tier cities down 40.6% and third and fourth-tier cities down 44.2% [4][6]. Second-Hand Home Transaction Volume - For the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.26 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 12.6%. However, year-on-year, January's cumulative transactions were down 23.3% compared to last year [10]. Inventory and Sales Ratio - In the week of January 3-9, 2026, 15 key cities launched 770,000 square meters of new homes, with total sales of 640,000 square meters, resulting in a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.83. The average monthly inventory turnover for the last three months was 21.6 months, a decrease of 0.24 months [19]. Policy and News Tracking - Recent policies include the Shanghai announcement for tax relief on land use for eligible taxpayers, and Nanjing's new talent policies offering living subsidies and expanded housing rental support [26][29]. - The establishment of the first local government-guided REITs fund in Xiamen, with a target size of 5.5 billion over 10 years, aims to revitalize existing assets [26][30]. Company Dynamics - December sales data for major real estate companies showed significant declines, with China Overseas Development reporting 39.83 billion yuan (-1%), and CIFI Holdings down 58.3% to 1 billion yuan [35]. - Notable changes in shareholding include the reduction of shares by the controlling shareholder of Binhai Group, decreasing their stake to 60% [35].

Investment Rating - The textile and apparel industry is rated as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the market during the week of January 5 to January 9, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 2.7%, lagging behind the SW All A index by 2.5 percentage points [1][3] - Recent industry data shows that from January to November, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles totaled 1.3597 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [2] - The export value of China's textile and apparel in November was $23.87 billion, down 5.2% year-on-year, with textile yarns, fabrics, and products seeing a slight increase of 1.0% [2][27] - Cotton prices have seen an increase, with the national cotton price B index reported at 15,720 yuan per ton, up 1.4% [2][31] - The New Zealand wool market has shown positive trends, with prices continuing to rise, indicating a favorable outlook for Australian wool prices [9] Summary by Sections Textile Sector - The regulatory focus on smokeless tobacco products is beneficial for companies developing non-woven fabrics for tobacco use, with significant potential for commercial development [8] - The New Zealand wool market has resumed auctions, with all wool types seeing price increases, suggesting a positive trend for the upcoming Australian wool auctions [9] Apparel Sector - Fast Retailing's FY26Q1 performance exceeded expectations, with sales reaching 1.03 trillion yen, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, and net profit of 147.4 billion yen, up 11.7% [10][11] - The demand for winter clothing is expected to rise due to colder weather and the upcoming Chinese New Year, which may enhance sales for apparel brands [11] - The apparel sector is anticipated to see improved sales performance in January and February, with a focus on brands that have strong product offerings and operational capabilities [11] Market Dynamics - The domestic retail market is projected to gradually recover, with new consumption trends emerging in high-performance outdoor apparel and discount retail [2] - The global tariff situation is stabilizing, which is not expected to affect the core manufacturing competitiveness of the industry [2] - The Australian wool price cycle is expected to continue its upward trend, with companies like New Australia Holdings positioned to benefit from this [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor sector, particularly for high-quality companies like Guizhou Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while also highlighting the potential of other brands such as Wuliangye and Yangjiao Gongjiu [2][6] Core Insights - The liquor market is undergoing a restructuring phase, with expectations of a double-digit decline in sales year-on-year for Q1 2026, but a potential stabilization in Q2 and a turning point in Q3 [2][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer price index (CPI) as a key indicator for systemic opportunities in the consumer goods sector, predicting gradual improvement in food CPI throughout 2026 [2][6] - Guizhou Moutai is implementing comprehensive market-oriented reforms focusing on product, pricing, and channel strategies, which are expected to enhance operational efficiency and stabilize pricing [7][20] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - As of January 10, 2026, the price of Moutai's scattered bottles is 1540 RMB, up 50 RMB from the previous week, while the price for a case is 1545 RMB, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 40 RMB [7][20] - Moutai's market-oriented reforms are aimed at enhancing efficiency and expanding consumer reach, which is expected to lead to a balance between supply and demand, reducing downward price risks [7][20] - Anticipated strong sales growth for Moutai during the upcoming Spring Festival due to improved price-performance ratio and increased consumer access [7][20] Consumer Goods Sector - The report recommends focusing on the supply chain related to condiments, frozen foods, and dairy products, with specific mentions of companies like Anjui Foods, Yili, and Tianwei Foods [8][9] - Yili's operational trends remain positive despite recent stock price fluctuations due to insider selling, with expectations of improved industry supply-demand dynamics and profitability growth [8][9] - Forecasted net profits for Yili from 2025 to 2027 are projected to be 11.3 billion, 12.2 billion, and 12.9 billion RMB, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 34%/7%/6% [9]

Overview - In December, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 50,000 jobs, which was below the market expectation of 65,000 jobs[2] - The unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, while the labor force participation rate also fell by 0.1 percentage points to 62.4%[2][8] Market Reaction - Following the release of the employment data, market reactions were relatively muted, with slight rebounds in the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield and the U.S. dollar index after initial declines[2][13] - U.S. stock markets experienced a brief uptick before retreating, while gold prices continued to rise, indicating market concerns over the lower-than-expected non-farm payrolls[2][13] Employment Structure - The weak performance in December's job growth was particularly evident in the goods-producing sector, with construction jobs decreasing by 11,000 and manufacturing jobs showing a larger decline[3][18] - Private service sector jobs increased by 58,000, up from 32,000 in the previous month, indicating some resilience in this area[3][18] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to maintain a "low-growth balance" in employment, characterized by a "no-job prosperity" due to simultaneous supply and demand contractions[3][4] - The anticipated tax cuts from the "Beautiful America Act" in the first half of 2026 may boost consumer spending and inflation, potentially delaying the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts[4] Risks - Key risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts, a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the U.S. economy, and the Federal Reserve adopting a more hawkish stance than anticipated[4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The long - end interest rate bonds in the bond market in 2025 were restricted by low odds, and the long - end interest rates tried to break through the previous lows multiple times but failed, showing a rounded bottom state. The leverage strategy's effectiveness increased, and there was still a large carry space for medium - and short - duration credit bonds. The performance of major asset classes in 2025 was metal commodities > equities > credit > interest rates [3][5][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Bond Market Trends - **Long - end rate constraints**: Long - end interest rate bonds were restricted by low odds throughout 2025 [3]. - **Multiple attempts to break through lows**: The 10Y Treasury yield attempted to break through the previous low 5 times in 2025 but failed. Different attempts were influenced by factors such as the economic data window period, central bank policies, institutional behavior, and overseas environments [5][6]. - **Leverage strategy effectiveness**: The effectiveness of the leverage strategy increased in 2025, and there was still a large carry space for medium - and short - duration credit bonds. The 10 - 1Y Treasury term spread first compressed and then widened, and the 30Y - 10Y Treasury spread widened after oscillation. The holding experience of long - duration Treasury bonds in Q4 2025 was average, while the volatility of the Wind All - A Index decreased and the returns were stable [9][10][13]. 2025 Performance of Major Asset Classes - The performance ranking of major asset classes in 2025 was metal commodities > equities > credit > interest rates. In Q4 2025, metal commodities outperformed equities, and credit outperformed interest rates [22][23]. 2025 Stock - Bond Performance - The stock - bond performance in 2025 implied relatively high economic growth expectations [24]. Bond Supply and Demand - The supply - demand structure of ultra - long - duration bonds changed, with the net buying volume of ultra - long - term Treasury bonds by funds and insurance companies declining [34]. Fundamentals - The "anti - involution" trend promoted the expectation of rising prices. The report also provided forecasts for PPI and CPI, and presented data on social financing scale and manufacturing PMI [39]. Institutional Behavior - **Fund performance differences**: In 2025, the returns of medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds were significantly lower than those of credit bond funds [62]. - **Insurance asset allocation**: In Q3 2025, insurance institutions reduced their allocation of bonds and bank deposits and increased their allocation of equities. The static YTM requirements of insurance institutions for fixed - income assets could be used to infer the corresponding points of 30Y Treasury bonds [67][69]. - **Wealth management product characteristics**: In 2026, wealth management products may have incremental liabilities, but they prefer short - duration assets and have relatively limited leverage utilization. The demand for controlling net - value drawdown of wealth management products may increase [71].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [3]. Core Insights - The software sector is expected to experience a rebound in revenue and profit in 2025, driven by cost reduction and improved fundamentals, with AI application commercialization being a key growth driver in 2026 [3][4]. - Customization in the Chinese software industry is a unique characteristic, making it less likely for large models to completely replace applications, as software companies accumulate significant industry know-how through deep interactions with clients [4][7]. - The report identifies the timeline for AI applications to impact valuations, suggesting that significant valuation increases occur when new technology revenue exceeds 10% of total revenue, with 2026 being a pivotal year for software companies [3][15]. - The report highlights four areas where AI applications are likely to commercialize quickly: AI Agents, multimodal applications, AI coding, and AI marketing [15][19][21]. Summary by Sections AI Application Commercialization - The software sector is entering a favorable phase for investment, with AI application commercialization expected to drive revenue growth in 2026 [4]. - Key areas for AI application commercialization include: - **AI Agents**: Enhanced capabilities for complex tasks through multi-agent systems and persistent memory [15][16]. - **Multimodal Applications**: Video and image generation are expected to monetize quickly due to high user willingness to pay [19]. - **AI Coding**: Rapid commercialization with significant ARR growth, exemplified by Cursor's $500 million ARR [21]. - **AI Marketing**: High digitalization and error tolerance in marketing make it a prime area for AI application [23]. Recent Developments in AI Healthcare - OpenAI launched ChatGPT Health, integrating personal health data for personalized health analysis, indicating a rapid penetration of AI in consumer health management [27][30]. - Ant Group's AI health assistant, Antifufu, has seen significant user growth, with monthly active users surpassing 30 million [29][30]. Key Investment Themes - Recommended investment themes include: - Digital economy leaders - AIGC applications - AIGC computing power - Data elements - Medical information technology [36].