Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Transsion Holdings (688036) [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 49.54 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.33%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.15 billion yuan, down 44.97% year-on-year [7] - The decline in net profit is attributed to a decrease in gross margin and an increase in operating expenses [7] - The company is actively developing practical AI features to enhance local user experience in Africa and South Asia [7] - The mobile internet business has reached a monthly active user count exceeding 10 million, with significant progress in monetization [7] - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down from 74.2 billion yuan to 70.3 billion yuan, and net profit forecast has been reduced from 6.2 billion yuan to 4.1 billion yuan [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 68.72 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.3% [6] - For 2025, total revenue is expected to be 70.31 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2.3% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is forecasted at 4.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 26.2% [6] - The gross margin is expected to be 20.3% in 2025, slightly recovering from 19.5% in 2025Q1-3 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 16.6% in 2025, up from 10.7% in 2025Q1-3 [6]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the pig farming industry, indicating that the downward cycle is nearing its end, with a potential upward turning point expected in 2026 [3][19] - The pet economy remains a key growth area, highlighting investment opportunities in niche sectors [4] Group 1: Industry Overview - The agricultural sector, particularly the pig farming segment, is experiencing a downturn, with 2025 expected to see continued losses, leading to a price bottom in the first half of 2026 [5][19] - The chicken farming sector is also under pressure, with expectations of supply-side stabilization and demand recovery in 2026 [20] - The cattle farming sector is projected to face a supply contraction starting in 2026, which may last until 2027 [21] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The pet food industry is anticipated to maintain its growth trajectory, with leading companies increasing their market share despite challenges in export performance [5][4] - The blueberry market in Yunnan is expected to see profit realization from 2024 to 2025, with growth potential continuing into 2026-2027 [5] - The artificial cultivation of Cordyceps is gaining traction as natural production declines, with early movers in this space likely to see performance improvements [5] Group 3: Key Companies to Watch - The report identifies several key companies for investment consideration, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, DeKang Agriculture, TianKang Biological, and others in the pet food sector [5]

Investment Strategy Overview - The mechanical sector has shown strong performance in 2025, with a 32% increase, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 14 percentage points [3][11] - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes "value reversal" and "technology empowerment" as the main themes for 2026, focusing on original innovation and breakthroughs in key technologies [4] Emerging Industries - Robotics is expected to accelerate commercialization in 2026, with attention on Tesla's humanoid robot product iterations and changes in the domestic supply chain [5][27] - Unmanned logistics is gaining traction globally, driven by reduced labor costs and improved economic efficiency, positioning it as a key player in manufacturing upgrades [5][38] - The low-altitude economy is being supported by government initiatives, with a focus on logistics and emergency rescue applications [42][43] Economic Drivers - The PCB industry is experiencing increased demand for drilling equipment due to the expansion of AI PCB production [50] - The tool industry is seeing a cyclical price transmission, with a notable recovery expected in Q3 2025 [66] - The lithium battery sector is witnessing explosive growth in demand, with global shipments projected to reach 5,127 GWh by 2030 [69] - The gas turbine market is experiencing significant demand growth, driven by AI infrastructure expansion [79] Equipment Updates - The engineering machinery sector is seeing unexpected growth in excavator sales, with a 7.77% year-on-year increase in October 2025 [88] - The railway investment is entering a critical phase, with fixed asset investments expected to reach historical highs in 2025 [99] Key Companies - Notable companies in the robotics sector include Tesla, Huawei, and various startups like UBTECH and Figure AI, which are rapidly advancing their product offerings [30][31] - In the PCB equipment market, companies like Dazhu CNC and Ding Tai High-Tech are maintaining strong market positions with significant revenue growth [51][54] - The gas turbine supply chain includes major players like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Siemens Energy, with a focus on domestic component replacement [79]

证 券 研 究 报 告 盈利新周期，估值新起点，迎银行长牛 2026年银行业投资策略 证券分析师： 郑庆明 A0230519090001 林颖颖 A0230522070004 冯思远 A0230522090005 李禹昊 A0230525070004 联系人： 郑庆明 A0230519090001 2025.11.18 投资要点 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 站在当下，我们更为坚定地看好银行板块正处于长牛修复的起点：2018年以来银行板块从"破净"到估值深度承压（最低0.49倍PB）再到当前行业整体 仍仅约0.7倍PB，核心压制无外乎两点："看不清的风险趋势"、"难以扭转的盈利下行"。相对乐观的是，这两点在当下都已"拨云见日"。 ◼ 不容忽视，银行板块价值回归的资金驱动力：1）"前所未有的低利率环境"是带动增量资金流向红利板块最直接驱动，银行板块性价比更优。对标美国 和日本，低利率环境中红利高股息策略总体跑赢，也是险资更为青睐的投资方向；而当前银行指数股息率约4.3%，较十年国债利率溢价位居过去十年超 70%分位，在红利板块中性价比更为突出。2）耐心资本入市仅是开端，以险资为代 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 49.54 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.33%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.15 billion yuan, down 44.97% year-on-year [7] - The company is actively developing practical AI features to enhance user experience in local languages, particularly in Africa and South Asia [7] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts downward due to lower-than-expected smartphone shipments and gross margins, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on comparative PE ratios [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 70.31 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.3% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is estimated at 4.10 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 26.2% [6] - The gross margin is expected to be 20.3% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 16.6% [6] Market Position - The company ranks third globally in smartphone market share with a 14.0% share, and fourth in global smartphone market share with 8.7% [7] - In Africa, the company holds over 40% market share in the smartphone segment, leading in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India as well [7] Business Development - The company's mobile internet business has reached over 10 million monthly active users, exploring localized business models [7] - The company has invested 2.14 billion yuan in R&D for the first three quarters of 2025, representing 4.32% of its revenue [7]

Group 1: Global Asset Allocation Strategy - The global asset allocation environment is expected to transition from preemptive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to a re-inflation cycle driven by both fiscal and monetary policy easing [2][8] - The focus for 2026 will be on the liquidity turning point's impact on asset rotation, with a gradual shift from liquidity-driven to fundamental trend-driven asset logic in domestic markets [8][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inflation trends as a tactical timing cue for investment strategies, suggesting a balanced allocation between equities and bonds in the first quarter of 2026 [8][11] Group 2: Industry Investment Strategies - The defense and military industry is entering a new cycle driven by both domestic demand growth and external potential release, with a focus on modernization and technological advancements [2][15] - The young manufacturing industry is highlighted for its global supply chain opportunities, emphasizing the irreversible trend of globalization and the competitive landscape for Chinese enterprises [3][14] - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including defense, aerospace, and advanced manufacturing, driven by government policies and market demand [15][16] Group 3: Economic and Market Outlook - Economic demand is expected to stabilize and recover in 2026, with PPI bottoming out and turning positive, leading to a rotation in industry styles from technology growth to cyclical assets [10][11] - The report predicts that the overall market will see a recovery in corporate earnings, particularly in sectors benefiting from the recovery of industrial product inflation [11][12] - The analysis indicates that the current valuation of cyclical consumer assets remains below historical averages, suggesting potential for future appreciation [12][13]

Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes the stabilization of global tariff negotiations, which does not alter the core competitiveness of global manufacturing, and highlights optimism towards two major industrial chains and a price increase cycle [3][4]. Industry Performance Review - As of November 14, 2025, the SW textile and apparel index has increased by 16.9%, ranking 17th in relative performance across the market. The manufacturing sector shows higher certainty compared to brands still in recovery [4][8]. - Domestic demand is at a low point in 2025 but is expected to recover in 2026-2027, focusing on the characteristics of young consumer groups to explore high-growth areas in new consumption [4][21]. New Consumption Trends - High-performance outdoor apparel is identified as a growth area with low penetration and high potential, with the market size projected to reach 102.7 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 17% year-on-year [4][33]. - Discount retail is highlighted as a scarce high-growth area within the consumption sector, with rapid expansion in urban outlets and hard discount specialty stores [4][46]. - The personal care and cleaning market, particularly wet wipes, is noted for its rapid growth and increasing necessity among young consumers, with a market size in China expected to reach 100 billion yuan [4][62]. - The sleep economy is emerging as a significant market, with explosive growth in household textile products, driven by young consumers' acceptance [4][20]. - The report discusses Nike's innovation cycle, which is expected to benefit from inventory replenishment and product innovation, similar to Adidas's recovery cycle [4][20]. - The Australian wool price increase cycle is anticipated due to supply contraction and demand highlights, with potential market space comparable to previous high points in 2011 and 2018 [4][20]. - The healthcare material upgrade cycle presents broad replacement opportunities for overseas non-woven fabrics [4][20]. Global Manufacturing Insights - The report notes that the resolution of tariff variables is expected to lead to a new growth phase for leading companies [4][27]. - The textile industry has undergone a pressure test for external demand, with recent tariff negotiations expected to boost export chain expectations for 2026 [4][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-growth new consumption areas and the competitive strength of global manufacturing as key investment strategies [4][27].

Core Insights - The report indicates that China's defense equipment construction is entering a new cycle driven by both "steady growth in domestic demand" and "release of external potential" [15] - The global asset allocation environment is expected to transition from preventive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to a re-inflation cycle driven by both fiscal and monetary policy easing [8][10] - The manufacturing industry is anticipated to experience a structural recovery, with a focus on cyclical assets as economic demand stabilizes and PPI (Producer Price Index) begins to rise [10][11] Group 1: Global Asset Allocation Strategy - The report outlines three major trading themes for 2025, including the breaking of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, the impact of a weak dollar, and the tightening of liquidity due to government shutdowns [8] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring liquidity turning points and their effects on asset rotation, suggesting a shift from liquidity-driven to fundamental-driven asset logic in China [8][10] - Tactical strategies for 2026 include balancing equity and bond allocations initially, then shifting to an overweight position in equities as inflation and corporate earnings recover [8][10] Group 2: Industry-Specific Investment Strategies - The defense and military industry is highlighted as a key area for investment, with a focus on modernization and technological advancements in military equipment [15] - The report identifies opportunities in the light manufacturing sector, particularly in global supply chain shifts and the competitive advantages of leading companies [15][16] - It suggests that cyclical assets, particularly in sectors like power equipment, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals, will benefit from the anticipated recovery in PPI and economic demand [12][15] Group 3: Economic and Market Trends - The report predicts a stabilization in economic demand and a gradual recovery in PPI, which will influence market style factors and lead to a rotation from technology growth to cyclical assets [10][11] - It notes that the historical relationship between M1-M2 growth rates and A-share performance suggests a potential upturn in corporate profitability and stock market performance in 2026 [11][12] - The report also highlights the importance of government policies, such as the "Fifteen Five" plan, which emphasizes economic construction and modernization of industries [12][15]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the rapid development of China's innovative pharmaceuticals, highlighting that the number of clinical trials has reached a global leading position, with a significant increase in new drug approvals [3][5][7] - Chinese pharmaceutical companies are transitioning from a "fast follower" to an "innovation leader" model, actively engaging in cutting-edge fields such as ADC, bispecific antibodies, and mRNA vaccines, with a notable increase in the number of products in late-stage development [8][11][18] - The report identifies two main investment directions: the transformation of biotech companies into biopharma and the revaluation of traditional pharmaceutical companies during their innovation transition, suggesting specific companies to watch in both categories [3][4] Group 2 - China's integration into the global innovative drug value chain is deepening, with a growing number of global multi-center clinical trials led by Chinese companies, indicating a shift in the global drug development landscape [3][24] - The report notes that the contribution of Chinese companies to global clinical trials has significantly increased, with a projection of 1,903 innovative drug clinical trials registered in China by 2024 [7][24] - The report highlights the increasing competitiveness of Chinese companies in high-potential therapeutic areas, particularly in oncology, metabolic diseases, and autoimmune diseases, with substantial market shares in these segments [18][19] Group 3 - The report discusses the rising trend of BD (business development) transactions involving Chinese assets, with a notable increase in transaction amounts and numbers, indicating China's growing influence in the global pharmaceutical innovation landscape [33][44] - It highlights that the majority of license-out projects are now in early stages, reflecting the international interest in early-stage Chinese innovations, particularly in oncology and metabolic therapies [39][44] - The report points out that major multinational corporations (MNCs) are increasingly seeking next-generation blockbuster products from China to fill revenue gaps due to impending patent expirations [62][66]

Group 1 - The report suggests that the Hong Kong stock market is at the beginning of a systematic valuation uplift, with the implied equity risk premium (ERP) reaching a low of approximately 5%, indicating potential for further downward adjustment in the long term [10][20][28] - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market's industry structure has significantly changed over the past decade, with new economy sectors like technology surpassing traditional sectors in market capitalization and trading volume, which should lead to an upward adjustment in valuation levels [28][31] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in driving growth in the technology sector, with companies like Alibaba Cloud showing strong revenue growth and profitability improvements due to AI-related services [87][90] Group 2 - The report discusses the interwoven dynamics of fundamentals and liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market, noting that improvements in the Producer Price Index (PPI) are expected to enhance risk appetite and attract foreign investment [4][62] - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a significant inflow of foreign capital, particularly through the Stock Connect program, which is expected to reduce the offshore discount and align valuations more closely with global markets [31][35] - The report identifies the cyclical themes and dividend-paying stocks as attractive investment opportunities, particularly in sectors like non-bank financials and utilities, which are expected to benefit from improving economic indicators [91]