Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price raised to 18.45 RMB, reflecting a significant increase from the previous target of 10.95 RMB [1][8]. Core Insights - The company demonstrates steady operational performance with a strong order backlog, transitioning its new business from an investment phase to a harvest phase by 2025. Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 7.42 billion RMB, 8.03 billion RMB, and 8.78 billion RMB respectively, with net profits attributable to shareholders expected to be 241 million RMB, 316 million RMB, and 376 million RMB [1][8]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.90 billion RMB, marking a 4.5% increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 124 million RMB, a decrease of 42.81% primarily due to increased investments in new business and asset impairment [1][8]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 1.65 billion RMB, a 0.76% increase, and a net profit of 72 million RMB, a substantial increase of 271.83%, driven by exchange rate gains and increased fiscal subsidies [1][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 7.42 billion RMB, 8.03 billion RMB, and 8.78 billion RMB respectively, with net profits of 241 million RMB, 316 million RMB, and 376 million RMB [3][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.41 RMB, 0.54 RMB, and 0.64 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][5]. - The company’s net asset return rate is expected to improve from 3.0% in 2024 to 7.3% by 2027 [3][5]. Business Development - The company is focusing on expanding its new business lines, particularly in digital agriculture and smart energy, while maintaining stability in its traditional business [1][8]. - In digital agriculture, the company is developing a comprehensive technology system that includes smart farming and fisheries, winning several key projects in 2024 [1][8]. - The company is also enhancing its ecosystem partnerships with major cloud providers like Alibaba Cloud and Tencent Cloud to accelerate AI applications in various industries [1][8].

Consumption - Auto consumption shows significant improvement with a notable increase in wholesale and retail sales, leading to a strong performance in this sector[9] - Service consumption experiences fluctuations due to holidays but shows a marginal improvement overall[49] Investment - Infrastructure bond issuance accelerates, with a total of CNY 1.37 trillion issued as of May 11, 2025, including CNY 177.6 billion in the first ten days of May[16] - Real estate market remains under pressure, with new home transaction area in 30 cities dropping from a year-on-year growth of 10.6% to 1.2%[16] Trade - Vietnam's exports grow by 21.0% year-on-year in April, driven by re-export and transshipment activities[21] - Domestic port operations slow down, with a decline in the number of ships docking and departing from major ports[21] Production - Overall production indicators show a marginal decline, particularly in power generation, steel, petrochemicals, and automotive sectors[28] - Coal consumption for power generation experiences a seasonal decline, indicating a potential short-term reduction in industrial electricity usage[28] Inventory and Prices - Industrial inventories, except for cement, are generally on the rise, with coal inventories nearing historical highs[38] - Consumer prices (CPI) show a marginal increase, while industrial prices (PPI) decline, reflecting a mixed pricing environment[43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price raised to RMB 147.19 [1][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to solidify its leading position in the domestic EDA market, planning a full acquisition of Chip and Semiconductor to enhance its EDA product matrix. The change in control to China Electronics Group is anticipated to provide substantial industry resources, supporting long-term growth [1][12][14]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 15.98 billion, RMB 21.37 billion, and RMB 27.55 billion, respectively, with EPS estimates of RMB 0.43, RMB 0.57, and RMB 0.72 [11][12]. - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 1.22 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.98%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 109 million, down 45.46% due to increased share-based payment expenses and higher personnel costs [12][14]. Financial Summary - **Revenue**: - 2023A: RMB 1,010 million - 2024A: RMB 1,222 million (26.6% YoY) - 2025E: RMB 1,598 million (30.8% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 2,137 million (33.7% YoY) - 2027E: RMB 2,755 million (28.9% YoY) [3][8] - **Net Profit (Attributable to Shareholders)**: - 2023A: RMB 201 million - 2024A: RMB 109 million (-45.5% YoY) - 2025E: RMB 232 million (111.7% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 308 million (33.1% YoY) - 2027E: RMB 391 million (26.7% YoY) [3][8] - **EPS**: - 2023A: RMB 0.37 - 2024A: RMB 0.20 - 2025E: RMB 0.43 - 2026E: RMB 0.57 - 2027E: RMB 0.72 [3][8] - **R&D Investment**: - 2024 R&D investment grew by 26.77%, accounting for 71.02% of revenue [12][14]. Market Position - The company maintains a top market share among local EDA firms, with nearly 700 global clients and a strong demonstration effect in the industry. It has achieved coverage of the full analog circuit design process and supports advanced nodes like 5nm, 14nm, and 28nm [12][14].

Revenue Insights - In the first four months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%[6] - In April 2025, the monthly revenue growth rate was 1.9%, up from 0.3% in March[6] - Tax revenue for the same period was 65,556 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 2.1%[8] Expenditure Insights - General public budget expenditure from January to April 2025 was 93,581 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.6%[9] - In April 2025, the expenditure growth rate was 5.8%, slightly higher than March's 5.7%[9] - Social security and education expenditures maintained high growth rates, indicating a focus on welfare[11] Government Fund Insights - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 6.7% year-on-year to 12,586 billion yuan in the first four months of 2025[17] - In April 2025, the revenue growth rate rebounded to 8.1%, compared to -11.7% in March[17] - Government fund budget expenditure grew by 17.7% year-on-year, with April's growth rate reaching 44.7%[17] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The fiscal policy is expected to accelerate, focusing on urban renewal projects and infrastructure improvements[22] - There is an emphasis on increasing local government special bonds and long-term special treasury bonds to support economic growth[22] - Risks remain due to uncertainties in overseas demand, which could impact future fiscal performance[23]

外部扰动，仍有韧性 [Table_Authors] 李林芷(分析师) 2025 年 4 月经济数据点评 登记编号 S0880525040087 本报告导读： 4 月，虽然外部不确定性提升，但在政策承托下国内经济仍有韧性 投资要点： 梁中华(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040019 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏 观 研 究 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.19 2025-05-23 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 专 题 021-38676666 宏观专题 1. 4 月经济：仍有韧性 4 月，经济在外部冲击下仍有韧性。4 月 8 日至 12 日，中美关税逐步加码， 对我国外需短期造成一定影响，不过，国内需求在政策支撑下仍有一定韧 性，生产、消费增速虽较前月有所回落，但仍保持 6.1%和 5.1%的较高增速。 [Table_Summary] 4 月，经济在外部冲击下仍有韧性。关税变化使得外需短期有一定 回落，不过国内需求在政策支撑下仍有一定韧性。生产、消费增速 虽较前月有所回落，但仍保持较高增速，其中新兴行业生产、政策 利好型消费均有亮眼表现。投资方 ...

Consumption - Automotive consumption remains high, with wholesale and retail sales showing a slight decline due to seasonal factors, but the four-week average year-on-year growth rate remains stable[4] - Service consumption is relatively flat, with urban congestion indices decreasing and subway passenger flow rebounding, although overall numbers are slightly down year-on-year[4] Investment - Infrastructure investment is accelerating, with special bond issuance reaching CNY 1.48 trillion as of May 18, 2025, and CNY 285.2 billion issued in the first 18 days of May[11] - Real estate transactions in 30 cities show a seasonal rebound but year-on-year growth has dropped from 6.3% to -15.0%[14] Trade and Port Operations - Import and export activities have rebounded due to tariff adjustments, with port operations improving and the number of ships docking at ports increasing significantly[17] - Export freight rates have seen a notable increase, with Shanghai and Ningbo export rates rising by 10.0% and 6.5% respectively[17] Production - Power generation coal consumption has rebounded, indicating marginal recovery in production, with some industries showing improved operating rates[19] - The steel and petrochemical sectors have seen slight improvements in operating rates, although some areas still face year-on-year declines[20] Inventory and Prices - Most inventories have decreased, except for coal and cement, which have seen increases, with coal inventories reaching historical highs[32] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) has decreased while Producer Price Index (PPI) has increased, indicating a stabilization in industrial product prices overall[34] Currency and Liquidity - The Chinese Yuan has appreciated to 7.20 against the US dollar, with the dollar index rising by 56 basis points due to favorable US economic data[39] - Funding rates have slightly increased, with R007 and DR007 rising by 5 and 10 basis points respectively[36]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Outperform" for the company, expecting a relative return exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% in the next 12-18 months [19]. Core Insights - The company's operating revenue for the 2024/25 fiscal year was 27.01 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year, with the decline in the second half narrowing to 5.4% compared to 7.9% in the first half [2][8]. - The retail business, the main revenue source, saw a 6.8% decline to 23.03 billion yuan, with improvements in the second half attributed to online sales initiatives [2][8]. - The gross margin decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 38.4%, while net profit fell by 41.9% to 12.85 billion yuan, influenced by increased discount rates and changes in sales channel mix [4][10]. - The company maintained a strong cash flow, with net cash flow from operating activities increasing by 20% to 3.76 billion yuan, supporting a high dividend payout ratio of 135% [5][12]. Revenue Performance - The company's revenue for the 2024/25 fiscal year was under pressure, primarily due to a weak consumption environment and reduced offline foot traffic [2][8]. - Retail revenue declined by 6.8% year-on-year, with the main brand's sales down 6.1% to 23.31 billion yuan [2][8]. - The online business segment showed double-digit growth, contributing to an increase in its share of overall direct business to 30%-40% [3][9]. Margin and Profitability - The overall gross margin decreased to 38.4%, with a notable decline in net profit by 41.9% year-on-year [4][10]. - The company is focusing on expense control, with total expenses decreasing by 5.6% year-on-year, while aiming to improve profit margins through efficiency [4][10]. Cash Flow and Dividends - The company reported a robust cash generation capability, with free cash flow at 3.38 billion yuan, 2.6 times the net profit for the same period [5][12]. - A final dividend of 0.02 yuan per share and a special dividend of 0.12 yuan per share were proposed, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio [5][12].

4 月件量维持较高增速，各快递份额分化 [Table_Industry] 运输 ——快递行业 2025 年 4 月月报 本报告导读： 4 月快递件量同比+19.1%，维持较高增速。头部企业份额逐步分化。建议关注电商快 递龙头份额上升催化估值修复机会，与时效快递顺周期底部时机。 投资要点： 业 跟 踪 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 行 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.21 [Table_Invest] [table_Authors] 2025-05-23 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 4 月快递件量同比+19.1%，仍保持较快的增速，超邮管局全 年增速预测。1）全行业：2025 年 4 月全国快递企业件量 163.2 亿 件，同比增长 19.1%；2025 年 1-4 月件量 614.5 亿件，同比增长 20.9%。 小件化趋势持续、电商促销且退换货便捷，共同驱动 2025 年前 4 月 件量增速超过邮管局对 2025 年全年件量增速超 8%的预测。此外， 4 月多电商平台取消"仅退款"，不仅短期可释放部分电商逆向件需 求 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the thermal power sector as the most promising area for investment, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [2][4]. Core Insights - Thermal power remains the most favored sector, with recent performance showing Huaneng up by 0.4%, Huadian by 0.5%, Changjiang Power by 1.9%, and Longyuan H by 3% during the week of May 12-16, while the Shanghai Composite increased by 0.8% and ChiNext Index by 1.4%. Despite thermal power underperforming compared to wind and solar, northern thermal power prices are expected to be favorable, and weak coal prices suggest promising profit growth for Q2 [3][4]. - The Henan spot market trial in May allows for 10% new energy in the spot market, with a cost structure where 90% is still based on auxiliary service fees. The energy market price range is set between RMB 50-1200/MWh [5]. - In Guizhou, peak shaving compensation is set at RMB 2/kWh, with valley filling prices ranging from RMB 0-2/kWh. The demand for peak shaving is stronger than for valley filling, indicating a potential upward adjustment in pricing structures that could favor thermal power [6]. - The Shandong 2025 New Energy High-Level Consumption Plan includes the construction of large coal units and flexibility retrofits, aiming to enhance the regulation capacity of coal power [7]. - The Hebei 2025 Power Load Management Plan anticipates summer peak loads of 55 million kW and 51.5 million kW for the South Grid, indicating a supply shortfall during peak times [8]. - Key data from Q1 2025 shows that Inner Mongolia's multi-party trading volume reached 71.9 billion kWh, with a year-on-year price decrease of 2%, saving users RMB 450 million. Xinjiang's power capacity stands at 201 million kW, with 112 million kW from new energy sources [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high gross margin of 15.6% in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.1 percentage points. The net loss narrowed to RMB 660 million, a reduction of 51% year-on-year and 50% quarter-on-quarter [9]. - The company is expected to benefit from a strong product cycle and enhanced smart features, projecting revenues of RMB 90.9 billion, RMB 130.3 billion, and RMB 152.7 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits attributable to shareholders of RMB -1.1 billion, RMB 3.2 billion, and RMB 6.7 billion for the same years [9]. - The company delivered 94,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, marking a 331% increase year-on-year and a 3% increase quarter-on-quarter, with key models contributing significantly to sales [9]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2022 to 2027, the company’s projected revenue shows a significant growth trajectory, with expected revenues of RMB 90.9 billion in 2025, up from RMB 40.9 billion in 2024, representing a 122% increase [3][7]. - The gross profit is projected to increase from RMB 5.8 billion in 2024 to RMB 14.9 billion in 2025, indicating a strong improvement in profitability [3][7]. - The net profit is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 5.8 billion in 2024 to a loss of RMB 1.1 billion in 2025, with a return to profitability projected in 2026 [3][7]. Market Position and Valuation - The report assigns a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 1.9x for 2025, leading to a target price of HKD 98.58, based on peer comparisons [9]. - The company’s stock has traded within a range of HKD 26.05 to HKD 97.45 over the past 52 weeks, indicating significant volatility and potential for growth [4].