Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, recommending investment in AI computing, cloud vendors, AI applications, and AI social networking sectors [4][6]. Core Insights - Meta's acquisition of Manus for over $2 billion signals a strong commitment to monetizing AI capabilities, with Manus achieving an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $125 million through a subscription model for AI agents [2][7]. - Continuous capital investment in advanced AI models has led to a new phase of "ample funding + rapid iteration" for AI labs, with significant investments from SoftBank totaling $40 billion in OpenAI, raising its valuation to approximately $500 billion [8]. - OpenAI is venturing into AI hardware, expected to launch its first product, potentially a "smart pen" or wearable audio device, by 2026 or 2027, marking a shift towards an integrated software-hardware ecosystem [9]. Summary by Sections Weekly Overview - Meta's acquisition of Manus is highlighted as a pivotal move, emphasizing the transition from AI capability competition to a focus on mature products and cash flow [7]. Capital Investment Trends - The report notes that major investments in AI labs are alleviating financial pressures, allowing for accelerated technological iterations and product deployments [8]. AI Hardware Development - OpenAI's upcoming hardware project, produced by Hon Hai, aims to enhance user interaction with AI, indicating a strategic expansion into hardware [9]. Market Performance - The report provides a market performance overview, noting fluctuations in major indices and specific stock performances within the tech sector [10][12]. AI Industry News - Key developments include Baidu's submission of an IPO application for Kunlun Chip, signaling growth in China's semiconductor sector, and the launch of Tencent's translation model [22][24].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The derivatives business of securities firms has experienced rapid growth, with key factors being changes in customer demand and regulatory policies. From 2018 to 2022, the nominal principal of the over-the-counter derivatives business increased from 346.7 billion to 2,086.8 billion, achieving a CAGR of 57% [6][7][8]. - The report emphasizes that the derivatives business will be a critical factor in differentiating the profitability of securities firms as their proprietary trading models evolve. Firms that can leverage derivatives for stable growth will have a competitive edge [6][21][34]. - The regulatory environment for derivatives is becoming more standardized, and the report anticipates steady growth in this sector, particularly for leading firms with strong customer bases and competitive advantages [6][36][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Historical Development and Key Factors - The derivatives business has undergone significant growth from 2018 to 2022, with the nominal principal increasing significantly across the industry [7][8]. - Key factors influencing this growth include changes in customer demand and the gradual improvement of regulatory policies [10][11]. 2. Evolution of Proprietary Trading Models - The derivatives business is expected to provide growth certainty, which will be crucial for differentiating profitability among securities firms [21][31]. - The report highlights that the derivatives business benefits from market activity and exhibits strong economies of scale, making it a stable revenue source [21][24][27]. 3. Regulatory Developments and Future Outlook - The regulatory framework for derivatives is becoming more structured, with a focus on promoting steady growth in the sector [36][37]. - The report expresses optimism about the long-term development potential of leading firms in the derivatives market, particularly as regulatory conditions improve [36][37].

Geopolitical Risks - The U.S. military action against Venezuela is expected to cause significant fluctuations in international oil prices, with short-term production and exports being impacted, leading to a potential rise in oil prices[1] - If the U.S. invests in Venezuelan oil, it may lead to a downward shift in the price equilibrium in the medium to long term[1] Economic Impact - Short-term oil price increases may exacerbate inflation expectations in the U.S., potentially affecting the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule[1] - The U.S. refinery utilization rate slightly increased to 94.7% in the week of December 26, 2025, compared to 94.6% the previous week[9] Market Performance - Emerging market stock indices rose by 2.27%, while developed market indices fell, with the S&P 500 down by 1.03%[8] - Commodity prices mostly declined, with the S&P-Goldman Commodity Index down by 0.37% and COMEX copper down by 2.62%[8] Inflation and Interest Rates - The 10-year inflation expectation in the U.S. rose by 3 basis points to 1.94% as of January 2, 2026[15] - The Federal Reserve is expected to be cautious with interest rate cuts due to geopolitical tensions affecting inflation[25] European Economic Indicators - Germany's manufacturing PMI decreased to 47.0%, while France and the UK saw increases to 50.7% and 50.6%, respectively[19] - Eurozone bond yields fell, with the 1-year yield decreasing from 2.0269% to 2.0237%[19]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" [6] Core Insights - The average price of liquid argon has doubled year-on-year, while the average price of rare gases remains low and fluctuating [2][6] - The operating load rate of China's industrial gas sector has decreased on a month-on-month basis, averaging 66.73% as of December 31, 2025, down by 1.88 percentage points [4][8] - Hangyang Group has joined the Controlled Nuclear Fusion Innovation Consortium, adding 42,000 Nm³/h of industrial gas services [4][6] Price Trends - Liquid argon price: 1,193 RMB/ton, up 3.56% month-on-month and up 106.35% year-on-year [6] - Liquid oxygen price: 346 RMB/ton, down 1.7% month-on-month and down 7.5% year-on-year [6] - Liquid nitrogen price: 367 RMB/ton, down 1% month-on-month and down 6% year-on-year [6] - Rare gases prices: - High-purity helium (cylinder): 89.17 RMB/m³, down 2.01% month-on-month and down 8.54% year-on-year [6] - Xenon: 21,250 RMB/m³, down 1.16% month-on-month and down 27.97% year-on-year [6] - Krypton: 196.67 RMB/m³, down 4.73% month-on-month and down 43.81% year-on-year [6] - Neon: 110 RMB/m³, unchanged month-on-month and down 12% year-on-year [6] Company Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Hangyang Co. and Shandong Energy Group, with related stocks being Zhengfan Technology, Fostar, and Zhongtai Co. [6][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is recommended to adopt a balanced and growth - oriented style allocation, emphasizing the technology mainline while taking into account pro - cyclical and large - finance sectors. For equity - hybrid funds, emerging technology remains the mainline in 2026, with a focus on the transformation of cyclical and consumer sectors and continued optimism about large - finance. For bond funds, the pressure in the first quarter of 2026 is relatively limited, with a "weak - first - then - strong" rhythm [1][4][14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Review A - Share Market - The A - share market was volatile and structurally differentiated. The petrochemical, national defense and military industry, and media sectors led the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index had an 11 - day consecutive rise. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13% to 3968.84 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.58% to 13525.02 points. Among the major indices, the Shanghai 50 Index fell 0.47%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.59%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.09%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.25%, and the STAR 50 Index fell 0.12%. The total trading volume of the two A - share markets was 6.33 trillion yuan, with the average daily trading volume increasing by about 163.6 billion yuan compared to the previous week. In the industry aspect, 12 out of 31 Shenwan primary industries rose, and 19 fell. The top - performing industries were petrochemical, national defense and military industry, media, automobile, and machinery and equipment, rising 3.92%, 3.05%, 2.13%, 1.44%, and 1.32% respectively; the bottom - performing industries were public utilities, food and beverages, power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, and non - bank finance, falling 2.72%, 2.26%, 2.18%, 2.06%, and 1.84% respectively [6]. Bond Market - The bond market declined, with both short - and long - term interest rates rising. The central bank's net open - market operation injection of 1.17 trillion yuan to maintain cross - year liquidity was offset by high cross - year capital demand, pushing up capital interest rates. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield rose 5BP to 1.34%, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 1BP to 1.85%; the 1 - year CDB bond yield rose 2BP to 1.55%, and the 10 - year CDB bond yield rose 2BP to 2%. In the credit bond market, the grade spread widened, and the term spread was differentiated. The AAA - rated corporate bond yield rose 1BP, the AA - rated corporate bond yield rose 2BP, and the urban investment bond yield rose 1BP. The ChinaBond Total Net Price Index fell 0.23%, the ChinaBond Treasury Bond Total Net Price Index fell 0.31%, the ChinaBond Financial Bond Total Net Price Index fell 0.12%, and the ChinaBond Corporate Bond Total Net Price Index fell 0.04%. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.27% [7]. Global Market - Global stock markets showed mixed performance, with oil prices rising and gold prices falling. The US stock market declined due to reduced interest - rate cut expectations and increased concerns about AI valuation bubbles. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.33%, the S&P 500 Index fell 1.03%, and the Nasdaq Index fell 1.52%. European stock markets generally rose, with the French CAC40 Index rising 1.13%, the German DAX Index rising 0.82%, and the British FTSE 100 Index rising 0.82%. The Asia - Pacific markets were also differentiated, with the Nikkei 225 Index falling 0.81%, the Taiwan Weighted Index rising 2.78%, the South Korean Composite Index rising 4.36%, and the Hang Seng Index rising 2.01%. The US Dollar Index rose 0.43%. In the commodity market, global oil prices rose, and the precious metal market experienced a sharp correction after the CME Group raised trading margins, with the precious metal index falling 5.20%, COMEX gold falling 4.63%, and COMEX silver falling 6.39% [8]. 2. Last Week's Fund Market Review - Stock - type funds fell 0.45%, with index stock - type funds falling 0.38% and active stock open - type funds falling 0.76%. Active hybrid open - type funds fell 0.48%. Funds heavily invested in humanoid robots and commercial aerospace sectors performed well. Among index funds, aerospace, robot, and media theme funds were among the top performers [10]. - Bond - type funds fell 0.06%. Partial - debt bond funds and convertible - bond funds with equity allocations in non - ferrous metals, TMT, or military industries performed well. The annualized yield of money market funds was 1.25%. Among QDII funds, equity QDII funds fell 0.68%, with funds heavily invested in Asia - Pacific technology sectors and crude - oil theme funds performing better. QDII bond - type funds rose 0.04%. Gold ETFs and their linked funds fell 3.18%, and commodity - type funds fell 2.76% [10][11][12]. 3. Future Investment Strategies Macroeconomy - The macro policy in 2026 will be more proactive and front - loaded. The new local government debt quota for 2026 has been pre - allocated. The National Development and Reform Commission has issued the list of the first - batch of "two major" construction projects and the central budgetary investment plan for 2026, totaling about 295 billion yuan, and will accelerate the allocation and use of funds. The first - batch of 62.5 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special Treasury bond funds for consumer goods trade - in has been pre - allocated [13]. Stock Market - The Chinese stock market is expected to cross and stabilize at important levels. Emerging technology remains the mainline, and there is a focus on the transformation of cyclical and consumer sectors. Large - finance is still favored. Recommended sectors include technology growth (such as Hong Kong - listed internet, media, computer, and computing power, as well as globally competitive manufacturing going overseas in power equipment and machinery), large - finance (securities and insurance), and pro - cyclical sectors (consumer stocks in food and beverages, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, hotels, and tourism services, as well as cyclical sectors like non - ferrous metals and chemicals) [14][15]. Bond Market - In the first quarter of 2026, the bond market's core concerns are policy expectations and bond issuance rhythm. The government bond issuance progress may be slower than in 2025, with the net financing in the first quarter accounting for about 25% of the whole year. The bond market may be under pressure due to the potential spring rally in the stock market. The probability of a reserve - requirement ratio cut is higher than an interest - rate cut. In 2026, there will be new features in the bond market, such as more timely support from MLF, repurchase, and Treasury bond trading, possible lower funds volatility and lower certificate - of - deposit interest rates, a possible change in the bond - market configuration power around the Spring Festival, and a lower and more short - term impact of equity and commodity markets on the bond market, with a possibility of "double - bull" in stocks and bonds [15][16]. Fund Investment - For equity - hybrid funds, a balanced and growth - oriented style allocation is recommended. Long - term attention should be paid to technology - themed funds, and products mainly investing in pro - cyclical and financial sectors should also be considered. For bond funds, given the expected volatility in early 2026, interest - rate bond funds with flexible duration adjustments or products heavily invested in high - liquidity credit bonds are recommended. Money market funds have no trend - based investment opportunities, and gold ETFs can be appropriately allocated for long - term and hedging investments [17]. 4. Latest Fund Market Developments Impact of New Fund Fee Regulations on Bond Funds - The new regulations partially exempt the redemption fees of bond funds and index funds. For individual investors holding index funds and bond funds for more than 7 days and institutional investors holding bond funds for more than 30 days, the fund managers can negotiate the redemption fee standards. The transition period for non - compliant existing funds is set at 12 months. Short - term bond funds may face challenges as the exemption threshold for institutional investors is raised, and funds may flow to money market funds or bond ETFs. Bond ETFs may expand in scale but shorten their duration [18][19]. Total Public - Offering Fund Assets Exceed 37 Trillion Yuan - As of the end of November 2025, the total net asset value of public - offering funds in China reached 37.02 trillion yuan for the first time, with continuous growth since the end of April. Compared with the end of October, the scale of bond funds, money market funds, FOF, and other funds increased, while the scale of stock funds and hybrid funds decreased. However, investors' subscriptions for equity - type funds were still active, and equity - type funds were the main focus of public - offering institutions in November [20][21]. New Fund Launches Last Week - A total of 33 new funds were established last week, including 12 passive index funds, 7 enhanced index funds, 6 partial - stock hybrid funds, 3 hybrid bond - type secondary funds, 2 ordinary stock funds, 2 hybrid FOFs, and 1 passive index bond fund. The average subscription period was about 15 days, and the average raised share was 361 million shares, with a total of 11.916 billion shares [22]. Fund Dividends Next Week - There will be 30 fund share ex - rights registrations next week. The most notable is the Zhongjin Shanjiao Group Expressway REIT, which will distribute a dividend of 1.24 yuan per 10 shares [23].

元旦"微度假"热度高 [Table_Authors] 李林芷(分析师) 国内高频指标跟踪（2026 年第 1 期） 本报告导读： 消费复苏动能较强，但投资、生产仍需政策进一步提振。 投资要点： | | 021-23185646 | | --- | --- | | | lilinzhi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040087 | | | 邵睿思(研究助理) | | | 010-83939827 | | | shaoruisi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880125070011 | | | 应镓娴(分析师) | | | 021-23185645 | | | yingjiaxian@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040060 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 金银铜续创新高，人民币汇率破 7 2025.12.28 消费温和改善 2025.12.28 内需有 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a rich pipeline for the company in 2026, with expectations for significant clinical data readouts, including results for HER2 ADC, B7H3 ADC, and TROP2 ADC [12][19]. - The target price for the company has been raised to HKD 455.56 based on DCF valuation methods, reflecting increased confidence in the potential global sales peak for several ADC products [8][12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from RMB 1,462 million in 2023 to RMB 2,516 million by 2027, with a notable increase of 23% in 2026 [3]. - Gross profit margin is expected to improve from 34% in 2025 to 51% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [3]. - Net profit is forecasted to decrease from RMB -757 million in 2025 to RMB -321 million in 2027, showing a gradual reduction in losses [3]. Pipeline Developments - HER2 ADC DB1303 is undergoing global registration clinical trials for multiple indications, with expected results in 2026 [12][11]. - B7H3 ADC DB1311 is anticipated to initiate a global Phase III clinical trial for 2L CRPC in 2026, following promising data from earlier studies [13][12]. - TROP2 ADC DB1305 is expected to demonstrate comparable efficacy to competitors in the market, with a focus on combination therapies [19][21]. Market Position - The company is positioned to compete effectively in the ADC market, with a strong emphasis on innovative therapies and strategic partnerships [12][19]. - The report notes the potential for the company's ADCs to become next-generation standard treatments in oncology, particularly in combination with other therapies [12][19].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the dairy industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the stabilization of raw milk prices and the expected upward trend in 2026 are driven by the reduction in supply-side expansion and decreased breeding stock, alongside the release of processing capacity on the demand side. The domestic beef demand is anticipated to be boosted by the implementation of import beef safeguard policies, leading to a sustained upward cycle in the beef industry [2][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the dairy industry will benefit from the easing of supply-side pressures and a reduction in breeding stock, with a strong likelihood of an upward trend in profitability for leading companies such as YouRan Dairy and Modern Farming [4][7]. Import Beef Safeguard Measures - The report details that starting January 1, 2026, a 55% tariff will be imposed on beef imports outside of the quota, with a nearly 6% reduction in quotas for major supplying countries. This policy is expected to enhance domestic beef demand and support the beef industry's growth cycle [2][4]. Beef Import Data - In 2024, the total beef import volume was 2.87 million tons, with Brazil, Argentina, and Australia being the largest suppliers, accounting for over 93% of imports. The report notes a projected decrease of 5.7% in quotas for 2026 compared to the previous 12 months, with significant reductions for Brazil and Australia [6][4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for key companies, with YouRan Dairy expected to achieve an EPS of 0.33 yuan in 2026, and Modern Farming projected to reach 0.05 yuan. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies are also discussed, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [7].

新店型、新周期 巴比食品(605338) ——公司跟踪报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 021-23183952 | yanhuijing@gtht.com | S0880525040022 | | 程碧升(分析师) | 021-23185685 | chengbisheng@gtht.com | S0880525040031 | | 陈力宇(分析师) | 021-38677618 | chenliyu@gtht.com | S0880522090005 | 本报告导读： 小笼包新店型的开店速度有望超预期，竞争担忧短期无虞，打开成长新周期。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the bond market experienced significant volatility at the end of 2025, with a notable increase in trading volume contrary to typical year-end trends, indicating a dominant position of short positions and profit-taking strategies [7][8]. - The report identifies two main reasons for the observed market behavior: persistent bearish sentiment and speculative trading strategies that exploit low trading volumes to create market fluctuations [8][9]. - It suggests that in a low-interest-rate and high-volatility environment, such phenomena are likely to increase, recommending two strategies for investors: hedging strategies for those seeking to smooth volatility and reverse trading strategies for those looking to capitalize on price corrections [9][11]. Group 2 - The report discusses the outlook for government bond futures, indicating that the cost-effectiveness of positive spread strategies is currently low due to a significant bearish sentiment, with IRR values for main contracts showing a decline [16]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring long-end basis convergence opportunities, as recent market conditions have led to a widening of basis spreads, suggesting potential for mean reversion [19]. - The report notes limited short-term trading opportunities in cross-period strategies due to consistent price movements across contracts, recommending a cautious approach [21]. Group 3 - The report outlines a curve strategy that suggests potential for flat trading opportunities post-holiday, as the long-end and ultra-long-end segments have shown significant declines, indicating a possible rebound [24].