Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. In the short - term, the near - month contracts may be in a wide - range low - level oscillation state. The far - month contracts are expected to perform better than the near - month ones due to the expected decline in production capacity, and investors can try to go long on the far - month contracts with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price (active contract) of eggs is 3066 yuan/500 kilograms, with a month - on - month increase of 59 [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of eggs is 4977 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 16845 [2]. - The registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is - 408 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 8 [2]. - The futures position volume (active contract) of eggs is 260145 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 4638 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.54 yuan/jin, with a month - on - month increase of 0.04 [2]. - The basis (spot - futures) is 477 yuan/500 kilograms, with a month - on - month decrease of 16 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The laying hen inventory index nationwide is 112.03 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month decrease of 2.21 [2]. - The culled laying hen index nationwide is 101.18 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month decrease of 13.26 [2]. - The average price of laying hen chicks in the main producing areas is 2.9 yuan per chick, with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 [2]. - The new chick index nationwide is 93.62 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month increase of 26.53 [2]. - The average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.8 yuan/kg, with no week - on - week change [2]. - The breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.29 yuan per hen, with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 [2]. - The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas is 8.16 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.26 [2]. - The average age of culled chickens nationwide is 500 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 18 yuan/kg, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.06 [2]. - The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.5 yuan/kg, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 [2]. - The average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.58 yuan/kg, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.2 [2]. - The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.21 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.09 [2]. - The weekly inventory in the production link is 1.09 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.09 [2]. - The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13394.53 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 178.74 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation The weekly consumption volume of eggs in the sales areas is 7377 tons, with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, the main producing area, is 7.09 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday [2]. - The average price of eggs in Hebei is 6.60 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan from yesterday [2]. - The average price of eggs in Guangdong is 7.67 yuan/kg, up 0.20 yuan from yesterday [2]. - The average price of eggs in Beijing is 7.04 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday [2]. - Continuous losses in the breeding end have led to a decline in replenishment enthusiasm and an increase in the number of old hens culled, and the laying hen inventory has continued to decline from a high level, with the market atmosphere slightly improving [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The stainless - steel futures price is expected to adjust strongly, with the price range between 14,200 - 15,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 14,415 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 490 yuan/ton; the 02 - 03 contract price difference is - 5 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 12,915 lots, a decrease of 4,552 lots; the main contract position is 145,444 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 46,118 tons, a decrease of 413 tons [2] 现货市场 (Spot Market) - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 14,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 500 yuan/ton; the market price of 304 scrap stainless steel in Wuxi is 9,650 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of stainless steel is 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 22,100 metal tons, a decrease of 800 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons, an increase of 2,900.84 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 895,400 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons [2] - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 150,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,600 yuan/ton; the average price of 7 - 10% ferronickel nationwide is 1,030 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 20 yuan/nickel point [2] - China's monthly chromite output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 产业情况 (Industry Situation) - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7617 million tons, a decrease of 38,300 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 540,500 tons, a decrease of 13,300 tons [2] - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 下游情况 (Downstream Situation) - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 534,567,000 square meters, an increase of 43,953,100 square meters [2] - The monthly output of excavators is 33,600 units, an increase of 2,700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 22,600 units, an increase of 700 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, unchanged [2] 行业消息 (Industry News) - In November in the US, retail sales unexpectedly strengthened with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, significantly driven by automobile and holiday consumption; energy cost increases pushed the US PPI in November to rebound to 3% year - on - year, with the core PPI month - on - month lower than expected; US existing home sales in December were the strongest since 2023, far exceeding expectations, and house price growth was the weakest in two and a half years [2] - In 2026, Fed voter Kashkari supported Powell and advocated keeping interest rates unchanged in January; voter Paulson maintained a cautious stance; 2025 voter Goolsbee emphasized the importance of independence in combating inflation; Fed Governor Milan found a new reason for interest - rate cuts: the Trump administration's deregulation [2] - China's foreign trade accelerated its recovery in December. Exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. Steel exports reached a record high, rare - earth quotas increased by 32% year - on - year, and annual imports of soybeans, iron ore, and crude oil all broke records, while coal imports fell by the largest margin in a decade [2] 观点总结 (Viewpoint Summary) - On the raw material side, the Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the nickel ore grade is decreasing. The raw material inventory of domestic ferronickel plants is tightening. Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota next year. In the case of raw material supply contraction, ferronickel production will face pressure to reduce output [2] - On the supply side, the production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved. Although it has bid farewell to the traditional peak demand season, the expected decline in production is actually limited, and supply pressure still exists [2] - On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually turning to the off - season, and the stainless - steel export volume is showing a downward trend. The impact of previous export squeezes is starting to be felt. Market procurement willingness is low, and overall inquiries and transactions are average. However, there is also not much inventory in the market, so the national social inventory of stainless steel maintains a seasonal slight decline [2]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on the synthetic rubber industry dated January 15, 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 12,190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan [2] - The main contract's open interest for synthetic rubber was 99,182 contracts, a decrease of 1,394 contracts [2] - The spread between the second and third contracts of synthetic rubber was -60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan [2] - The total warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber were 6,530 tons, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 12,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 12,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 12,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 12,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber was -190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan [2] - Brent crude oil was at 66.52 dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.05 dollars [2] - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 725 dollars/ton [2] - The price of naphtha CFR Japan was 560.25 dollars/ton [2] - The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,140 dollars/ton [2] - WTI crude oil was at 62.02 dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.87 dollars [2] - The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 275 yuan [2] Group 3: Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 15.93 million tons/week, unchanged [2] - The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 71.31%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points [2] - The port inventory of butadiene was 41,300 tons, a decrease of 3,400 tons [2] - The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric - vacuum distillation units was 54.57%, a decrease of 0.37 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.01 million tons, a decrease of 0.75 million tons [2] - The weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 79.15%, an increase of 1.97 percentage points [2] - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was -335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 669 yuan/ton [2] - The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.31 million tons, a decrease of 0.14 million tons [2] - The weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 26,350 tons, an increase of 50 tons [2] - The weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 6,770 tons, a decrease of 410 tons [2] Group 4: Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 65.89%, a decrease of 3.46 percentage points [2] - The weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 58.02%, a decrease of 1.53 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, an increase of 590,000 pieces [2] - The monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, an increase of 6.63 million pieces [2] - The weekly inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 44.62 days, a decrease of 2.43 days [2] - The weekly inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 47.36 days, an increase of 0.31 days [2] Group 5: Industry News - As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points. Output increased as the production of overhauled enterprises stabilized, and some semi - steel tire enterprises had more foreign trade orders [2] - In December, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 14.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.35 million tons (10.38%) and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. The capacity utilization rate was 72.13%, a 4.65 - percentage - point increase from the previous month and a 2.68 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year [2] - As of January 14, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 3.49 million tons, a 0.18 - million - ton (5.50%) increase from the previous period [2] Group 6: Core View - The production cost of cis - butadiene rubber has increased significantly due to strong demand for raw material butadiene and export deal rumors, but downstream resistance to high prices has led to a difference in negotiations. The inventory of producers and traders has increased, and there is no sign of supply reduction in the short term. The downstream end lacks the willingness to stock up at high prices, and the inventory of producers and traders is expected to remain high [2] - The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased significantly this week as the production of overhauled enterprises stabilizes. In the short term, some semi - steel tire enterprises will maintain a high operating rate supported by foreign trade orders, and the overall production schedule is expected to be stable. All - steel tire enterprises still control production to manage inventory [2] - The BR2603 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,900 - 12,650 yuan/ton in the short term [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The current domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the off - season, while the Thai producing area is still in the peak production season. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate. The total inventory accumulation rate has narrowed month - on - month, but the inventory accumulation intensity remains high. The inflow of goods at Qingdao Port shows a seasonal reduction trend, with the overall inflow decreasing month - on - month, and the downstream rigid demand improving, increasing the overall outflow. In terms of demand, the operating rates of domestic tire enterprises have increased significantly month - on - month. In the short term, the output of some semi - steel tire enterprises will remain high due to the support of foreign trade orders, and the overall equipment production schedule is expected to remain basically stable. For all - steel tire enterprises, there is still a phenomenon of production control to manage inventory. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15750 - 16400 in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12700 - 13250 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 15995 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan; the closing price of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 12850 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan. The Shanghai rubber 5 - 9 spread is 30 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 20 - number rubber 2 - 3 spread is - 10 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3145 yuan/ton, unchanged. The position of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 198380 lots, down 1357 lots; the position of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 69423 lots, down 1250 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 53013 lots, up 2438 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 11091 lots, up 2003 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 105590 tons, unchanged; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 57758 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15650 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16200 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1935 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1925 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15150 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 345 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the Shanghai rubber main contract is - 1010 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13428 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan; the basis of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 578 yuan/ton, up 273 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 60.65 Thai baht/kg, up 0.65 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 57.05 Thai baht/kg, up 0.7 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 58 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 24 US dollars/ton, up 21 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 16.88 million tons, up 4.27 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 30.22 million tons, up 4.58 million tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 58.02%, down 1.53 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 65.89%, down 3.46 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 44.62 days, down 2.43 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 47.36 days, up 0.31 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 0.59 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 14.47%, up 0.26 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.75%, up 0.21 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.9%, up 0.62 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.91%, up 0.64 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,800 tons, an increase of 3.62%. The bonded area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory of domestic urea enterprises decreased this week, but as the urea price rises, the downstream trend of chasing up the price may slow down, and the short - term de - stocking range of urea enterprises is expected to be limited. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1770 - 1830 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 1801 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan; the 5 - 9 price difference was 29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan [2] - The position volume of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 250303 lots, a decrease of 3453 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 19065, an increase of 2022 [2] - The number of Zhengzhou urea exchange warehouse receipts was 13355, with no change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui were 1740, 1750, 1760, 1760, and 1760 yuan/ton respectively. The prices in Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui increased by 10, 10, 20, and 10 yuan respectively, while the price in Hebei remained unchanged [2] - The FOB price in the Baltic Sea was 367.5 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price at the main Chinese port was 402.5 US dollars/ton, both with no change [2] - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was - 41 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory was 140,000 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons; the enterprise inventory was 986,100 tons, a decrease of 36,100 tons [2] - The urea enterprise operating rate was 83.22%, an increase of 2.93 percentage points; the daily urea output was 195,900 tons, an increase of 1700 tons [2] - The urea export volume was 600,000 tons, a decrease of 600,000 tons; the monthly output of urea was 6,000,330 tons, an increase of 129,060 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate was 37.17%, an increase of 3.28 percentage points; the melamine operating rate was 54.35%, an increase of 6.7 percentage points [2] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China was 244 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea was - 152 yuan/ton, a decrease of 106 yuan [2] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer was 4.3825 million tons, an increase of 753,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine was 28,300 tons, a decrease of 1900 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of January 14, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 986,100 tons, a decrease of 36,100 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53%. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises decreased slightly this cycle [2] - As of January 15, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 134,000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons month - on - month, a decline of 4.29%. The overall port goods fluctuated little this week, with both departure and collection of goods [2] - As of January 15, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.4051 million tons, an increase of 33,500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.44%; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises was 85.25%, an increase of 2.03 percentage points from the previous period, and the trend continued to rise [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were relatively stable, with the annual export value of $293.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%, better than expected. The ICE cotton futures were generally stable on Wednesday. In the domestic market, the national cotton inspection is accelerating, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. With the quota issuance, port pick - up increases, Brazilian cotton arrives in a concentrated manner, and inventory continues to rise. Downstream textile enterprises have limited orders, lower than previous years, and some weaving factories may have early holidays. The expected decline in cotton planting area in the new year supports the cotton market to some extent, but recently, the external macro - environment has weakened, and cotton prices have adjusted accordingly [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 14,675 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 174,613 lots, up 2,644 lots; main contract open interest of cotton: 835,832 lots, down 6,537 lots; cotton warehouse receipts: 9,329 lots, up 493 lots; China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,972 yuan/ton. - Cotton yarn main contract closing price: 20,665 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 1,721 lots, up 1 lot; main contract open interest of cotton yarn: 15,580 lots, down 176 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts: 70 lots, unchanged; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 21,300 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 12,634 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 21,010 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty): 13,754 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32S): 22,418 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,328 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton: 850,000 tons, up 65,000 tons; cotton import volume: 120,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume: 150,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; imported cotton profit: 2,218 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton: 4.6836 million tons, up 1.753 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 26.33 days, up 0.21 days; grey fabric inventory days: 32.34 days, up 0.37 days; monthly cloth output: 2.81 billion meters, up 0.19 billion meters; monthly yarn output: 2.039 million tons, up 38,000 tons; monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories: $115,936,860, up $5,902,055.7; monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: $122,757,331,017,314.08 [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money cotton call options: 14.08%, up 0.96%; implied volatility of at - the - money cotton put options: 14.08%, up 0.96%; 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 13.24%, down 0.25%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 8.8%, down 0.18% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 in the short term. Although the port methanol inventory has decreased, the total volume remains at a relatively high level. Short - term attention should be paid to the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in提货量. The domestic methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate continued to decline this week, and the average weekly operating rate is expected to drop next week [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2273 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol was 1 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 829,376 lots, an increase of 5,592 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 170,691 lots, a decrease of 24,096 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 8,355, an increase of 700 [3] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 410 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port was 268 US dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia was 322 US dollars/ton, unchanged. FOB Rotterdam was 260 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between China Main Port and Southeast Asia was - 54 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.11 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.27 US dollars/million British thermal units [3] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 103.89 tons, a decrease of 8.44 tons; the inventory in South China ports was 39.64 tons, a decrease of 1.75 tons. The import profit of methanol was - 22.17 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 141.76 tons, a decrease of 19.5 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 450,900 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 91.42%, an increase of 1.11 percentage points [3] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 34.07%, a decrease of 4.17 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 2.96%, a decrease of 0.64 percentage points. The operating rate of acetic acid was 76.99%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE was 67.57%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points. The operating rate of olefins was 88.06%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points; the disk profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 1027 yuan/ton, an increase of 47 yuan/ton [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 20.16%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 18.12%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 27.55%, an increase of 2.41 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 27.56%, an increase of 2.42 percentage points [3] Industry News - As of January 14, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 45.09 tons, a slight increase of 0.32 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.71%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 23.78 tons, a slight increase of 0.03 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. As of January 14, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 143.53 tons, a decrease of 10.19 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China and South China decreased. The significant reduction in port inventory was mainly due to the small total unloading volume. Recently, the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production reduction of domestic methanol was more than the output of restored production capacity, resulting in a decrease in overall output. As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 86.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.38%. The Zhejiang Xingxing MTO plant entered a shutdown state, and some enterprises were still operating at reduced loads, causing the industry's operating rate to continue to decline passively [3]

生猪产业日报 2026-01-15 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) 期货盘面 | 11950 | -60 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 164180 | -4346 | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 855 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -52407 | -571 | | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) 现货价格 | 13100 | 100 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 12600 | 200 | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall data of the domestic sugar market is neutral to bearish, but the market's expectation of a decline in Brazil's export prospects supports the sugar market. Short - term sugar prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5280 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; the main contract position volume is 425,271 lots, down 3,694 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity is 14,126 pieces, up 4,387 pieces; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 755 pieces, down 1,074 pieces; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 67,530 lots [2] 现货市场 - The import processing estimated price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4002 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4053 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5068 yuan/ton; that of imported Thai sugar is 5134 yuan/ton; the spot price of sugar in Yunnan Kunming is 5215 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; in Guangxi Nanning is 5360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangxi Liuzhou is 5380 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, up 5.24 thousand hectares [2] 产业情况 - The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 8.94 million tons; the cumulative production volume of cane sugar in Yunnan is 4.48 million tons; Brazil's total sugar export volume is 2.913 billion tons, down 389 thousand tons; the monthly import volume of sugar is 440 thousand tons, down 310 thousand tons; the cumulative import volume is 4.34 billion tons, up 440 thousand tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production volume of refined sugar is 1.303 billion tons, up 420 thousand tons; the monthly production volume of soft drinks is 10.457 billion tons, down 505 thousand tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 9.39%, up 0.15%; that of at - the - money put options is 9.39%, up 0.15%; the 20 - day historical volatility is 11.2%, up 0.37%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.84%, up 0.21% [2] Industry News - Brazil exported 740.5 thousand tons of sugar in the first two weeks of January, with a daily average export volume of 123.4 thousand tons, a 32% increase compared to the daily average export volume of 93.7 thousand tons in January of the previous year. The total export volume in January of the previous year was 2.062 billion tons. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fell 0.21 cents or 1.40% to settle at 14.68 cents per pound [2] 观点总结 - In December, the sugar production in Guangxi was 1.808 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 431 thousand tons, and the sales volume was 795.4 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 551.8 thousand tons. As of December 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in Yunnan was 392.3 thousand tons, higher than 326.9 thousand tons in the same period of the previous season; the cumulative sales volume was 281.4 thousand tons, compared with 267.1 thousand tons in the same period last year [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - The rapeseed meal market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, generally fluctuating with soybean meal. Affected by the bearish USDA report and the rising expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed meal continued to decline and maintained a weak oscillation [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is also in a weak oscillation recently. Although the current de - stocking mode supports the price and the basis remains high, the increasing long - term supply pressure due to the arrival of Australian rapeseeds and the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations needs attention [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) was 8828 yuan/ton, down 121 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) was 2283 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) was 629.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 2.3 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) was 5550 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - Spreads: Rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (5 - 9) was 14 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (5 - 9) was - 68 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - Positions: Main contract positions of rapeseed oil were 258828 lots, up 12208 lots; main contract positions of rapeseed meal were 869905 lots, down 1046 lots. Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were - 20583 lots, up 650 lots; for rapeseed meal were - 201431 lots, down 19790 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 2142 sheets, down 80 sheets; rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 84 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2350 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8490 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 8650 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Averages and spreads: The average price of rapeseed oil was 9706.25 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed was 7540.97 yuan/ton, down 45.57 yuan. The oil - meal ratio was 3.95, down 0.03. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 772 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 67 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1110 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 770 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and imports: Global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; rapeseed production annual forecast was 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. Rapeseed import volume was 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil were 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; imports of rapeseed meal were 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. - Inventory and开机 rate: Total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the weekly开机 rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged [2]. - Pressing profit: The imported rapeseed disk pressing profit was 365 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0 million tons, unchanged. East China rapeseed oil inventory was 25.15 million tons, down 1.55 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory was 15.7 million tons, down 1 million tons. Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 0.1 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory was 25.7 million tons, up 1.1 million tons [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 was 0.18 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; rapeseed meal weekly提货量 was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production for the month was 2977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; edible vegetable oil production for the month was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. - Consumption: Social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue for the month were 6057 billion yuan, up 858 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: The at - the - money call option implied volatility of rapeseed meal was 22.73%, down 0.45%; the at - the - money put option implied volatility of rapeseed meal was 22.73%, down 0.45%. The at - the - money call option implied volatility of rapeseed oil decreased by 0.15% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 16.67%, down 0.39%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 12.82%, down 0.06%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.08%, down 0.73%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.1%, down 0.05% [2]. Industry News - On January 14th, ICE rapeseed futures declined, in line with the trend of Chicago soybean oil. The ICE March rapeseed futures contract fell 4.50 Canadian dollars, settling at 628.30 Canadian dollars per ton. The rapeseed trade is closely watching the news related to Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China [2]. Rapeseed Meal View Summary - The USDA monthly supply - demand report was bearish for soybeans, dragging down rapeseed meal. Domestically, the supply of near - month Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal is restricted, and oil mills are shut down, but the arrival of Australian rapeseed increases marginal supply. The market expects an improvement in China - Canada trade relations, increasing long - term supply pressure. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and fluctuates with soybean meal, maintaining a weak oscillation [2]. Rapeseed Oil View Summary - The USDA supply - demand report shows a relatively loose supply - demand pattern for global and Canadian rapeseed, which restricts the market price. The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China raises the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations, which may support the Canadian rapeseed market. Domestically, oil mills are shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a de - stocking mode, supporting the price, but the long - term supply pressure increases [3].