| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) -127 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) | 9807 | | 131160 | -13467 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) -1186 | 6907 | | | | | | 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, | 5.25 | 0 | 2.4 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | | | | | | | 元/斤) 陕西洛川苹果现货价格(纸袋70#以上半 元/斤) 山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80#以上一 | 4.2 | 0 | 3.7 | -0.3 | | 上游情况 | 商品)(日,元/斤) 二级果农货)(日,元/斤) 全国:苹果产量(年,万吨) | 5128.51 | 168.34 | | | | 产业情况 | | 9.33 | | 9.17 | -0.02 | | | 水果批发价:苹果(周,元/公斤) -0.1 平均 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The acquisition of grey jujubes in Xinjiang production areas has ended. The raw material acquisition in the production areas is priced according to quality, adhering to the principle of high - quality products commanding high prices. The market focus has shifted to the consumer end. Traders commonly hoard raw materials in Xinjiang. As the twelfth lunar month approaches, the holiday stocking demand is expected to drive the market into a phased peak in sales. Currently, the spot price remains generally stable, and there may be short - term fluctuations in jujube prices [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main jujube futures contract was 9,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 122,345 lots, an increase of 1,227 lots - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 20,619 lots, a decrease of 1,738 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 3,211, an increase of 232 - The total valid warehouse receipt forecast was 411, a decrease of 93 [2] 现货市场 - The unified price of Kashgar jujubes was 6.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 4.1 yuan/jin, unchanged - The unified price of Alar jujubes was 5.65 yuan/kg, unchanged; the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Henan was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged - The unified price of Aksu jujubes was 5.15 yuan/kg, unchanged; the price of special - grade jujubes in Henan was 9.47 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan - The price of special - grade jujubes in Hebei was 9.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the price of special - grade jujubes in Guangdong was 10 yuan/kg, unchanged - The price of first - grade jujubes in Guangdong was 8.8 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] Upstream Market - The annual jujube output was 6.069 million tons, an increase of 3.187 million tons. The jujube planting area was 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2] Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory was 15,300 tons, a decrease of 349 tons. The monthly jujube export volume was 3,537,566 kg, an increase of 1,332,346 kg - The cumulative monthly jujube export volume was 29,291,188 kg, an increase of 3,537,566 kg [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative quarterly sales volume of jujubes by Hao Xiang Ni was 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons. The cumulative year - on - year jujube production growth rate was 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points - The average daily number of incoming trucks at Ruyifang Market was 6.2, an increase of 0.8. The monthly average wholesale price of jujubes was 10.33 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.46 yuan - In Hebei Cuierzhuang Market, 5 trucks of jujubes arrived, including sub - standard and finished products. Local processing factories mainly processed and sold their own goods, and holders were actively selling [2] Industry News - Downstream merchants made purchases as needed. Some holders reported improved sales. In the Guangdong market, 8 trucks of jujubes arrived, the market was full, prices were stable, and market transactions were acceptable [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage of slightly increasing supply and cautious demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 163,220 yuan/ton, up 1,280 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was -143,409 lots, down 17,892 lots; the position of the main contract was 443,942 lots, down 8,641 lots; the spread between near and far contracts was -200 yuan/ton, down 4,920 yuan/ton [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 159,000 yuan/ton, down 4,000 yuan; the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 155,500 yuan/ton, down 4,000 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was -4,220 yuan/ton, down 5,280 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 1,935 US dollars/ton, up 55 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite was 17,850 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 56,820 tons, up 2,840 tons; the monthly import volume was 22,055.19 tons, down 1,825.51 tons; the monthly export volume was 759.24 tons, up 513.33 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 49%, up 2 percentage points [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The monthly output of power batteries was 176,300 MWh, up 5,700 MWh; the price of lithium manganate was 42,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 154,000 yuan/ton, down 35,000 yuan; the price of lithium cobalt oxide was 396,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Option Situation - The total subscription position was 74,764 lots, up 7,757 lots; the total put position was 127,899 lots, up 12,286 lots; the total position put - call ratio was 171.07%, down 1.4684 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.70%, down 0.0186 percentage points [2] Industry News - The 2026 working meeting of the Inter - ministerial Joint Conference on the Development of Energy - saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry emphasized enhancing the independent controllability of the industrial chain and supply chain, accelerating the breakthrough of technologies such as all - solid - state batteries and high - level autonomous driving [2] - Deputy Director Wang Jun of the General Administration of Customs stated that in the past 5 years, the average annual growth rate of high - tech product imports and exports was 7.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate in 2025 further accelerated to 11.4% [2] - In 2025, the exports of lithium batteries and wind turbine generators increased by 26.2% and 48.7% respectively; the exports of electric motorcycles and bicycles increased by 18.1%, and the exports of railway electric locomotives increased by 27.1% [2] - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 34 million vehicles, and new energy vehicle production and sales both exceeded 16 million vehicles, accounting for over 50% of domestic new car sales [2] - Musk announced that Tesla's lithium refinery is now in operation, claiming it to be the largest in the United States [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines reduce production at the end of the year. Domestic smelters face increased competition in purchasing domestic ores, and both domestic and foreign processing fees have significantly declined. Domestic smelter profits are shrinking, and production is expected to continue to be restricted. However, the recent decline in LME zinc prices and the rebound of the SHFE-LME ratio may lead to the re - closure of the export window. [3] - On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening. The policy support in the automotive and other fields brings some bright spots. Downstream markets mainly purchase on demand at low prices. The recent rapid increase in zinc prices has led to weak downstream purchasing, a decline in spot premiums, a slight decrease in domestic inventories, stable LME zinc inventories, and low spot premiums. [3] - Technically, with increasing trading volume and open interest, prices are rising, showing a strong bullish sentiment and breaking through the upper edge of the upward channel. It is expected that SHFE zinc will have a strong adjustment. Pay attention to the support of MA10, with the range of 24,500 - 25,500 yuan/ton. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract is 25,090 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 615 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 02 - 03 contracts of SHFE zinc is - 45 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton. [3] - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,276 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 74.5 US dollars/ton. The total open interest of SHFE zinc is 260,851 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 27,188 lots. [3] - The net open interest of the top 20 in SHFE zinc is 4,378 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 734 lots. The SHFE zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons. [3] - The SHFE inventory is 73,852 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4,059 tons. The LME inventory is 106,725 tons, with a day - on - day decrease of 175 tons. [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 25,410 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 840 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 26,230 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,460 yuan/ton. [3] - The basis of the ZN main contract is 320 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 225 yuan/ton. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 14.32 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5.03 US dollars/ton. [3] - The ex - works price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,470 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 220 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,900 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 300 yuan/ton. [3] Upstream Situation - According to WBMS, the monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 14,700 tons. According to ILZSG, the monthly zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 27,600 tons. [3] - The global zinc mine output in the current month (monthly) is 1,066,600 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 31,000 tons. The domestic refined zinc output is 665,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons. [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 164,500 tons. [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,840.75 tons. The refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,040.84 tons. [3] - The social zinc inventory is 111,700 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,600 tons. [3] Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets in the current month is 2.34 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons. The sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 140,000 tons. [3] - The newly started housing area is 534.567 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 43.9531 million square meters. The completed housing area is 348.61 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 37.3212 million square meters. [3] - The automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, with a month - on - month increase of 240,000 vehicles. The air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.8908 million units. [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 28.68%, with a month - on - month increase of 5.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 28.67%, with a month - on - month increase of 5 percentage points. [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 21.26%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.79 percentage points. The 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 12.62%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.06 percentage points. [3] Industry News - In the US, retail sales in November unexpectedly strengthened, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. The growth was significantly driven by automobile and holiday consumption. Rising energy costs pushed the US PPI in November to rebound to 3% year - on - year, and the core PPI was lower than expected month - on - month. Existing home sales in December reached the strongest level since 2023, far exceeding expectations, and the housing price increase was the weakest in two and a half years. [3] - In 2026, Fed voter Kashkari supported Powell and advocated keeping interest rates unchanged in January. Voter Paulson maintained a cautious stance. In 2025, voter Goolsbee emphasized the importance of independence in combating inflation. Fed Governor Milan found a new reason for interest rate cuts: the deregulation of the Trump administration. [3] - China's foreign trade has accelerated its recovery. In December, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. Steel exports reached a new high, and rare earth exports increased by 32% year - on - year. The annual imports of soybeans, iron ore, and crude oil all broke records, while the decline in coal imports was the largest in a decade. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai Tin will undergo short - term high - level adjustments. Attention should be paid to the support at MA5 and the resistance between 430,000 - 440,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 433,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 19,830 yuan/ton; the closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai Tin is - 700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 180 yuan/ton [3] - LME 3 - month tin is 53,462 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3,934 US dollars/ton; the position of the main contract of Shanghai Tin is 38,434 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,968 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures in Shanghai Tin is - 2,306 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,850 lots; LME tin total inventory is 5,930 tons, with no change [3] - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,935 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,001 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 135 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 tons [3] - The warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 9,526 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,419 tons [3] 3.2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 426,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20,500 yuan/ton; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 435,640 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 25,030 yuan/ton [3] - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai Tin is - 7,670 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 8,540 yuan/ton; LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 105.98 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 40.7 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore concentrates is 11,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,900 tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrates is 393,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 36,950 yuan/ton [3] - The average price of 60% tin concentrates is 397,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 36,950 yuan/ton; the average processing fee of 40% tin concentrates is 11,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 500 yuan/ton [3] - The average processing fee of 60% tin concentrates is 7,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 500 yuan/ton [3] 3.4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 518.38 tons [3] 3.5. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 269,460 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 12,610 yuan/ton; the cumulative output of tinplate is 1.3901 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 144,700 tons [3] - The monthly export volume of tinplate is 222,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 25,000 tons [3] 3.6. Industry News - In the US, retail sales in November unexpectedly strengthened with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, significantly driven by automobile and holiday consumption. Energy cost increases pushed the US PPI in November back to a year - on - year increase of 3%, and the core PPI month - on - month increase was lower than expected. US existing home sales in December were the strongest since 2023, far exceeding expectations, and the housing price increase was the weakest in two and a half years [3] - Some Federal Reserve officials have different stances on interest rates. Kashkari supports Powell and advocates keeping interest rates unchanged in January, Paulson maintains a cautious stance, Goolsbee emphasizes the importance of independence in combating inflation, and Fed Governor Milan finds a new reason for interest rate cuts [3] - China's foreign trade is accelerating its recovery. In December, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. Steel exports reached a new high, and rare earth exports increased year - on - year. The annual imports of soybeans, iron ore, and crude oil all broke records, and the decline in coal imports was the largest in a decade [3] 3.7. Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, the domestic supply of imported tin ore is still relatively tight, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a low level. The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply of tin ore, but the supply in other regions is still highly unstable, and the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level. At the smelting end, the current tin ore raw materials are in short supply, the raw material inventory of most enterprises is still low, and most enterprises are in a loss situation. It is expected that the production of refined tin will continue to be restricted and there will still be no year - on - year increase. In terms of imports, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply restrictions in Indonesia. Recently, the import window is approaching, increasing import pressure [3] - On the demand side, the tin price has risen recently, the downstream procurement demand has weakened again, the inventory has increased, and the spot premium is 500 yuan/ton. The LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has decreased [3] 3.8. Technical Analysis - The position has decreased while the price has increased, with a strong long - position atmosphere, and there may be an adjustment [3]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责 任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用 、删节和修改。 贵金属期货日报 2026/1/15 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 1035.200 | -5.4↓ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 22665 | -98.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 93,276.00 | -7403.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 1,470.00 | +32.00↑ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | 190,086.00 | -11001.00↓ ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - It is expected that Shanghai nickel will undergo a strong short - term adjustment, and attention should be paid to the support of MA10 [3][4] - The Philippines has entered the rainy season, leading to a downward trend in nickel ore imports. Indonesia's plan to significantly cut the RKAB quota next year has raised market concerns about raw material supply shortages, but the long - term impact depends on the transmission process [3] - On the smelting side, Indonesia's nickel iron production remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. China has large refined nickel production capacity, and with the recent rebound in nickel prices and improved profits, the production of refined nickel is expected to rise again [3] - On the demand side, the cost of nickel iron for stainless steel has decreased, improving steel mill profits and leading to expected high production. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, contributing a small increase in demand for ternary batteries [3] Group 3: Summary according to the Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 146,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5,810 yuan/ton. The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 18,785 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1,185 dollars/ton [3] - The 02 - 03 month contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 270 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 72,182 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,730 lots [3] - The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 101,498 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 8,357 lots. LME nickel inventory is 284,658 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 510 tons [3] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 46,650 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,106 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 13,296 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 702 tons [3] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 41,972 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,700 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 150,050 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3,600 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 149,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3,300 yuan/ton [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 33,250 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 500 yuan/ton. The basis of the NI main contract is 3,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,210 yuan/ton [3] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 198.76 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.11 dollars/ton [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 333.95 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 134.33 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,319.77 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 12.26 million tons [3] - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 72.18 dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 14.84 dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, with no week - on - week change [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly production of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly production of nickel iron is 2.21 million metal tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 million metal tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons, with an increase of 2,900.84 tons. The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 176.17 million tons, with a decrease of 3.83 million tons [3] - The weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 89.54 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.97 million tons. The weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel in stock is 54.05 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.33 million tons [3] 6. Industry News - In the US, retail sales in November unexpectedly strengthened, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. Energy cost increases pushed the US PPI in November to rebound to 3% year - on - year, and the core PPI month - on - month was lower than expected. US existing home sales in December were the strongest since 2023, far exceeding expectations, and the housing price increase was the weakest in two and a half years [3] - Some Fed officials in 2026 support maintaining the interest rate in January, while others hold a cautious stance. A Fed governor has found a new reason for interest rate cuts [3] - China's foreign trade has accelerated its recovery. In December, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. Steel exports reached a new high, and rare earth exports increased by 32% year - on - year. Annual imports of soybeans, iron ore, and crude oil all broke records, while coal imports had the largest decline in a decade [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and slightly increasing demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and cautious demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and off - season demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 24,375 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan; the main - second - continuous contract spread was - 220 yuan, down 110 yuan; the main contract position was 346,831 lots, down 22,129 lots; the LME aluminum cancellation warrant was 45,425 tons, unchanged; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 3,186 US dollars/ton, down 11.5 US dollars; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was - 69,279 lots, down 3,792 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.65, down 0.04 [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,789 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the main - second - continuous contract spread was - 271 yuan, down 50 yuan; the main contract position was 508,785 lots, down 9,236 lots; the total inventory of alumina was 196,081 tons, up 2,727 tons; the LME aluminum inventory was 492,000 tons, down 2,000 tons [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 23,155 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan; the main - second - continuous contract spread was 45 yuan, up 125 yuan; the main contract position was 21,628 lots, down 382 lots; the registered warehouse receipts of cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 70,668 tons, up 1,837 tons; the inventory of cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 73,288 tons, down 505 tons [2]. Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 24,190 yuan/ton, down 480 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 24,690 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 24,000 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the basis of cast aluminum alloy was 845 yuan, down 200 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 185 yuan, down 260 yuan; the Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium/discount was - 140 yuan, down 20 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was 16.58 US dollars/ton, down 5.51 US dollars [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,575 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of alumina was - 214 yuan, up 11 yuan; the price of pre - baked anodes in the northwest region was 5,910 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 18,850 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap was 18,300 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 162,756.17 tons, up 4,396.16 tons; China's export volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 71.53 tons, up 39.07 tons; the export volume of alumina was 170,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; the import volume of alumina was 232,400 tons, up 43,100 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was - 108,700 tons, up 83,400 tons; the import volume of primary aluminum was 146,109.72 tons, down 101,652.54 tons; the total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,536.20 million tons, up 120,000 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum was 53,047.69 tons, up 28,474.13 tons; the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum was 98.31%, up 0.10%; the production of aluminum products was 593.10 million tons, up 23.70 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 545,000 tons, down 25,000 tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 684,000 tons, down 16,000 tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 30,600 tons, down 300 tons; the total built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 1.26 million tons, unchanged; the national real estate climate index was 91.90, down 0.52 [2]. Downstream and Application - The production of automobiles was 3.519 million vehicles, up 240,000 vehicles [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 21.49%, up 0.41%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 17.93%, down 0.15%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 29.61%, up 0.0075; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.64, down 0.071 [2]. Industry News - Philadelphia Fed President Paulson reiterated that if inflation continues to fall as expected and the labor market stabilizes, the Fed may further cut interest rates later this year. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari advocated maintaining the interest rate unchanged at the end - of - month monetary policy meeting [2]. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that eight of the 12 Fed districts had slight to moderate growth in overall economic activity, three reported no change, and one reported a slight decline. Consumer spending in most banks had slight to moderate growth during this period, mainly due to the holiday shopping season [2]. - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed that the US PPI and core PPI in November last year both rose 3% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 2.7%. The rise in energy costs was the main driver of the PPI increase [2]. - The central bank stated that China's price level had shown positive changes, and the coordinated effect of China's macro - policies was continuously strengthening, which would continue to promote a better match between supply and demand, smooth the real - economy cycle, further boost market confidence, and continue to affect prices [2]. - People's Bank of China Deputy Governor Zou Lan announced on January 15 that the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools would be cut by 0.25 percentage points, and the one - year interest rates of various re - loans would be reduced to 1.25%. This structural interest - rate cut aimed to guide commercial banks to accurately invest credit resources in major national strategies, key areas, and weak links [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 102,810.00 | -1310.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 13,028.50 | -160.00↓ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -250.00 | 0.00 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 235,877.00 | -5355.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -60,872.00 | +8097.00↑ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 141,625.00 | +75.00↑ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 180,543.00 | +35201.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 51,000.00 | -825.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 162,717.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 102,575.00 | -134 ...

玉米系产业日报 2026-01-15 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) | 2295 | 23 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ | 2565 | 22 | | | 玉米月间价差(5-9):(日,元/吨) | -18 | 2 玉米淀粉月间价差(3-5):(日,元/吨) 吨) | -32 | 5 | | 期货市场 | 期货持仓量(活跃 ...