随着市场情绪转暖,双硅价格震荡向上。首先是当前国内经济韧性, 地产短期企稳复苏迹象明显,其次是板块轮动效应强 化,黑色受低估值强支撑,再者是市场资金充盈,流动性推动叙事不可小觑,而产业情绪谨慎,中下游低库存,补库需求释 放可期。需求端,直接需求和终端需求整体平淡,需求端短期暂时难有改善。供给端,整体合金厂利润不佳,但产量依旧偏 高。合金厂自身减产或控产的驱动不足,中期供给过剩压力仍不减。宏观方面,国内宏观政策加速出台,岁末年初稳经济需 求下,刺激政策利好为主。"双碳"和反内卷目标下,产业政策对双硅的供给形成扰动和成本支撑预期。总体看来,近期双 硅基本面延续承压,供给偏高而需求走弱。但短期市场情绪主导为主,双硅价格或偏强震荡 as ■ 焦煤基差(右轴) 大津港:库提价:主焦煤(蒙古,A10%,V27% 期货收盘价(活跃合约 400 3000 2500 200 500 ■ 焦炭基差(右轴) - 青岛港:出库价(含税):准一级冶金焦(A13,SO - 期货收益价(活跃合约):焦 1200 1000 | 铁矿基差(右轴) | 800 【焦煤焦炭】产业淡季驱动不足,跟随叙事震荡运行 | E .. . | 国贸期货出品 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, although external disturbance factors have intensified, the stock index itself maintains strong resilience driven by domestic capital. The space for short - term stock index shock adjustment is expected to be limited. Long - term investors can gradually build long positions during this period [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Interest Rate and Bond Market - The closing price of DRO01 is 1.33, with a change of - 3.36bp compared to the previous value; DR007 is 1.59, with a change of 0.19bp; GC001 is 1.61, with a change of 0.50bp; SHBOR 3M is 1.59, with a change of - 0.20bp; GC007 is 1.61, with a change of - 1.50bp; LPR 5 - year is 3.50, with a change of 0.00bp; 1 - year treasury bond is 1.30, with a change of 0.02bp; 5 - year treasury bond is 1.58, with a change of - 0.23bp; 10 - year treasury bond is 1.81, with a change of - 0.97bp; 10 - year US treasury bond is 4.26, with a change of 2.00bp [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 1761.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market. With 1181 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, the net injection was 580.5 billion yuan. In addition, 200 billion yuan of MLF matured last week, and 150 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations were carried out [4] - This week, 1761.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will mature, with 150.5 billion, 402 billion, 377.5 billion, 354 billion, and 477.5 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. Also, 700 billion yuan of 91 - day repurchase agreements will mature on Wednesday [5] Stock Index Futures and Stock Market - The closing price of CSI 300 is 4706, down 1.00% compared to the previous day; IF current - month contract is 4710, down 1.4%; SSE 50 is 3066, down 1.43%; IH current - month contract is 3068, down 1.8%; CSI 500 is 8371, down 1.73%; IC current - month contract is 8377, down 1.8%; CSI 1000 is 8255, down 0.93%; IM current - month contract is 8282, down 0.8% [6] - The trading volume of IF is 179201, up 12.1%; the open interest is 332644, up 2.8%; the trading volume of IH is 77049, down 10.3%; the open interest is 122366, down 4.6%; the trading volume of IC is 248185, up 21.5%; the open interest is 349459, down 1.2%; the trading volume of IM is 275842, up 11.2%; the open interest is 408840, down 0.7% [6] - Last week, CSI 300 rose 0.08% to 4706.3; SSE 50 rose 1.13% to 3066.5; CSI 500 fell 2.56% to 8370.5; CSI 1000 fell 2.55% to 8254.9. Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, communication (5.8%), non - ferrous metals (3.4%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (1.8%), food and beverage (1.6%), and non - bank finance (1%) led the gains, while national defense and military industry (- 7.7%), power equipment (- 5.1%), automobile (- 5.1%), computer (- 4.8%), and comprehensive (- 4.7%) led the losses. The daily trading volumes of A - shares last week were 3280.6 billion, 2921.5 billion, 2992.3 billion, 3259.4 billion, and 2862.4 billion yuan respectively, and the average daily trading volume increased by 264.3 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] - Last week, the selling pace of broad - based ETFs slowed down. For example, the scale of CSI 300ETF decreased by 95.8 billion yuan on January 27, and the reduction amplitudes on January 28 and 29 narrowed to 26.9 billion and 13.6 billion yuan respectively. On Friday, overseas disturbances intensified. The newly nominated Fed Chairman Waller is hawkish, the US dollar index rebounded sharply, the precious metals sector tumbled, and the US Nasdaq index fell sharply during the session, dragging down the A - share opening. However, due to the abundant liquidity of the A - share market itself and good bullish sentiment, the A - share market rebounded in a "V" shape [7] Futures Contract Premium and Discount - The premium and discount rates of IF are - 1.49% for the current - month contract, - 0.77% for the next - month contract, 0.37% for the current - quarter contract, and 1.74% for the next - quarter contract; for IH, they are - 1.07%, - 1.90%, - 1.16%, and 0.69% respectively; for IC, they are - 1.53%, 0.75%, 2.23%, and 3.06% respectively; for IM, they are - 6.41%, - 0.54%, 3.56%, and 4.99% respectively [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX market strength leads the rise of chemical products, with significant capital inflow into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market significantly increases the allocation of chemical products, and polyester leads the entire chemical sector [3]. - Domestic PTA production continues to grow. With no new PTA capacity in the country, existing plants need to maintain high loads to match the growth of polyester. India's PTA operates at full capacity, and the new project GMPL has purchased PX for commissioning, further boosting regional demand [3]. - Overseas ethylene glycol prices rebound after a long - term slump. Reduced ethylene glycol exports from the Middle East boost market confidence. Supply contraction creates room for ethylene glycol price increases [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 472.5 yuan/barrel on January 29, 2026, to 470.8 yuan/barrel on January 30, 2026, a decrease of 1.7 yuan/barrel [3]. - **PTA**: PTA主力期价 decreased from 5332 yuan/ton to 5270 yuan/ton, a drop of 62 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 rose from 5245 yuan/ton to 5280 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee increased by 63.5 yuan/ton to 477.3 yuan/ton, while the disk processing fee decreased by 13.5 yuan/ton to 467.3 yuan/ton [3]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 decreased from 3957 yuan/ton to 3913 yuan/ton, a drop of 44 yuan/ton. MEG内盘 rose from 3829 yuan/ton to 3835 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton [3]. - **PX**: CFR中国PX decreased from 921 to 913, a decrease of 8; PX - naphtha spread decreased from 337 to 317, a decrease of 20 [3]. - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F price rose by 90 yuan/ton; FDY150D/96F and DTY150D/48F prices both rose by 100 yuan/ton. 1.4D直纺涤短 price decreased by 15 yuan/ton, and semi - light slice price decreased by 10 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX开工率 remained unchanged at 85.82%; PTA开工率 remained unchanged at 75.63%; MEG开工率 decreased from 60.66% to 60.29%, a decrease of 0.37%; polyester load decreased from 81.05% to 80.82%, a decrease of 0.23% [3]. 3.3 Device Maintenance - An East China 3.6 - million - ton PTA plant is currently reducing its load and is expected to shut down for maintenance as planned on the 15th. A South China 1.25 - million - ton PIA plant is expected to shut down on the 16th and is initially expected to restart in early March [4]. 3.4 Market Transaction Suggestions - PTA: The strong PX market drives the rise of chemical products, and capital flows into the chemical sector. Domestic PTA production grows, and existing plants need to maintain high loads. The new Indian project boosts demand, while PX supply is affected by plant maintenance [3]. - MEG: Overseas ethylene glycol prices rebound. Reduced Middle East exports and a domestic plant's production switch plan increase speculative demand and create price - rising space [3].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【一国贸易报 性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标 财务状况或需要,投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,拥 此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以 方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法律责任。 险,入市需谨慎。 ITG国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 入 用 市 市 lle 41 客 官 方 网 站 服 热线 la 风 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 2026/2/2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | 指标 | 2026/1/29 | 2026/1/30 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 5245 | 5280 | 35 | | | MEG内盘价格 | 3829 | ...

2200 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 展望后市，本次贵金属市场的崩盘给原本的上涨趋势踩下刹车、短期市场或继续释放风险。但在经历了近期的太幅调整后、市场风险也得到一定释放、随着杠 杆的去化，叠加伊朗地缘仍旧复杂和美国政府正式部分停摆等，预计金银价格后续进一步大幅下挫空间或相对有限。白银方面，现货仍旧偏紧、库存持续回落，且 隐波高达100以上，短期玻动料仍较为તી?。中长朝来看，本次贵金属价格的崩盘并不意味着贵金属牛市格局的结束，在美联储年内仍有降息概率，全球地缘不确定 性持续和美国巨额债务将不断推进去美元化浪潮等背景下，全球央行/机构/居民的配置需求有望延续，贵金属价格重心仍有上行空间、可关注本次暴跌后带来的逢 低配置机会。 体我告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，但更期货力求准确可靠。但不对上越信息的准确性及完熟性依任何保证、本报告不构成个人投资建议。也未分对个别投资者保持知投资目标、财务优况或需要、投资 者需三行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其标定状况，融此投资。责任会负。本报告仅向标定客户推送，来组国资降货资政许可，任何引用、转载以及可第三方传播的行为少购成或回贸贸股权规 声明 我司 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 铂把数据日报 国贸期货研究院 贵金属与新能源研究中心 投资咨询号: Z0013700 从业资格号:F3023916 注:因收盘时间不一致,铂、兜库存及持仓数据部分滞后。 1月30日，铭、纽价格整体大幅下挫：PT2606合约收跌11.79%至630.55元/克:PD2606合约收跌11.87%至46405元/克。此外，上周五 夜盘,外盘铂把价格继续大幅下跌,伦敦现货锐金盘中暴跌超24%,终根收2180.8美元/盎司,目内跌16.72%;伦敦现货投盘盘中暴跌超 20%，终损收771.美元/盎司。日内映14.69%。宏观层面，特朗普提名近什出任新美联随主席，国其相较于其它候选人更加鹰派,市场普 遍预期其不会采取大规模范松货币政策，同时派什的提名也缓解了市场对美联情独立世丧失的担忧，提振美元指数、美债收益率大幅 走强,加上资金的大规模流出,贵金属市场出现恐慌性抛售并发生了"踩踏式"下跌，钳、史亦不例外跟随暴跌。基本面方面,暂未 有较大变化,美国决定督援对关键矿产加征进口关税,缓解的、把的关税风险,未来需关注组织库存是否流出,若确认,可能会对其 上行空间炮成压制。综上。基于 ...

rr C 国贸 n1X _120 TG 国 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[ 2012 ]31号 [ TC 国贸期货 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年到 在 | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询证:20017251 | 2026/02/02 | | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格证:F3066728 = | | | | | | | 现货综述 | 指标 | 变动值 | 2026/01/29 | 2026/01/30 | | | | 65. 42 | WTT | 63.21 | 2.21 | 原油& | | | | 68. 4 | 70.71 | 2.31 | Brent | 石 脑 油 | 苯乙烯:江苏市场低开反弹,整理抬升。消息着, | 本 | | 11.5 | 石脑油 | 584. 5 | 596 | 乙烯主力合约回软,原油、纯苯、主力合约反弹,苯 | 乙烯盘面成交向好,货市场有点价商谈8000/8050 | | | 石烯 CFR东北亚 | 700 | 700 | 0 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The steel market is in a slow season with limited demand support. Steel prices are expected to move sideways, and hot-rolled coil basis trading and futures-cash arbitrage can be considered. [2] - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to rebound due to improved market sentiment, but the fundamentals remain under pressure in the medium term. [3] - The coking coal and coke market is affected by the off-season and limited upward and downward drivers. After the first round of coke price increase, pay attention to selling opportunities on rallies. [5] - Iron ore prices are supported in the short term by the "restart + restocking" expectation but face long-term pressure from port inventories. [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On January 29, the closing prices of far-month contracts RB2610, HC2610, 12609, J2609, and JM2609 were 3203.00, 3330.00, 779.00, 1791.50, and 1242.50 yuan/ton respectively, with varying increases. [1] - The closing prices of near-month contracts RB2605, HC2605, 12605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3157.00, 3308.00, 798.50, 1723.00, and 1165.00 yuan/ton respectively, also with varying increases. [1] - The cross-month spreads of RB2605 - 2610, HC2605 - 2610, 12605 - 2609, J2605 - 2609, and JM2605 - 2609 were -46.00, -22.00, 19.50, -68.50, and -77.50 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - The spreads/ratios/profits such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, coal - coke ratio, rebar disk profit, and coking disk profit had specific values and changes on January 29. [1] Spot Market - On January 29, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, Guangzhou rebar, Tangshan billet, and the Platts Index were 3280.00, 3190.00, 3410.00, 2950.00, and 104.15 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes. [1] - The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, Guangzhou hot - rolled coil, billet - product spread, and Rizhao Port PB had specific values and changes on January 29. [1] - The spot prices of Qingdao Port super - special powder, etc. also had corresponding values and changes on January 29. [1] - The basis values of HC, RB, etc. and their changes on January 29 were provided. [1] Steel - The steel market is in a slow season with limited demand support. Steel prices are expected to move sideways. The actual resumption of production by steel mills may be slow. Traders are less willing to do open - position winter storage and are more suitable to participate through basis trading. Hot - rolled coil basis is favorable for futures - cash positions, and hot - rolled coil futures - cash arbitrage can be rolled. [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - With the warming of market sentiment, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are oscillating upwards. The demand is weak in the short term, and the supply is high in the medium term. The domestic macro - policy is favorable. In general, the short - term market sentiment dominates, and the prices may be strongly oscillating. [3] Coking Coal and Coke - The first round of coke price increase has finally landed, but the market is not optimistic about the future. The downstream procurement is cautious. The coking coal online auction has many unsuccessful bids. The futures market is affected by the relaxation of the "three red lines" for real - estate enterprises and the stock market rebound. The steel market is in a slow season, and the industry data is weak. The coal mine supply continues to recover, and the downstream has pre - Spring Festival restocking. The short - term first - round price increase and news drive the disk rebound, but pay attention to selling opportunities on rallies. [5] Iron Ore - The steel mill's in - plant inventory is low. The expectation of steel mill restart and pre - Spring Festival restocking supports the iron ore price in the short term. After the restocking expectation is fully digested, the port inventory pressure will be the source of pressure. The short - term pattern is oscillating strongly, but the medium - long - term pressure is obvious. [6]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 股指期权数据日报 投资咨询号: Z0000116 国贸期货研究院 2026/1/30 金融行生品中心 李泽矩 从业资格号: F0251925 数据来源: Wind, 国贸期货研究院 行情回顾 成交量(亿) 指数 收盘价 涨跌幅 (8) 成交额(亿元) 上证50 2948. 88 100. 71 3110. 9135 1.65 沪深300 4753. 8697 0. 76 9179. 66 415. 51 8332. 2067 6777. 36 -0. 80 中证1000 401. 99 中金所股指期权成交情况 认购期权 期权成交量 认购期权 认活期权 认活期权 持仓量 日成交量 期权持仓量 指数 持仓量 持仓量 (万张) 成交量 成交量 (万张) PCR PCR 上证50 6. 93 0. 37 5.06 1.87 7. 97 3. 10 4. 87 0. 64 沪深300 8. 23 13. 48 9.11 4. 38 20. 85 12. 63 0. 65 0. 48 中证1000 33. 22 18. 22 32. 21 15. 00 0. 82 16. 1 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - The absolute price of soybean meal is relatively low. Recently, affected by weather speculation in Argentina and logistics congestion in Brazil, the futures market has been strong. However, there is an expectation of rainfall return in the Argentine production area in February, and the total supply of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient. The expected logistics congestion will shift the selling pressure of Brazilian premiums later. There is no condition for a significant unilateral upward trend. Currently, the domestic purchase and shipping profit is at a high level. From the perspective of profit, the valuation of the soybean meal futures is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up unilaterally. The domestic supply and demand is expected to be loose in the first quarter, the spot basis is expected to weaken, and M3 - M5 is biased towards reverse arbitrage [13] Group 2: Data Summary Basis Data - On January 29th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 438, in Tianjin was 378 (down 20), in Rizhao was 318 (down 20), in Zhangjiagang was 328 (down 10), in Dongguan was 318 (down 20), in Zhanjiang was 348 (down 20), and in Fangcheng was 338 (down 20). The basis of rapeseed meal in Yue was 147 (down 24). M3 - 5 was 294 (down 4), and RM5 - 9 was - 8 [4] Spread Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 477 (down 8), and the futures spread of the main contract was not clearly stated in the text [5] Inventory Data - The text shows the inventory data of Chinese port soybeans, national major oil mills' soybeans, national major oil mills' soybean meal, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal, but specific data on January 29th is not clearly summarized [5][7][8] Other Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.9146, and the futures crushing profit was 153 yuan/ton. The text also shows the CNF premium trend chart of soybeans in 2025 and the futures crushing profit chart of imported soybeans in 2025 [5]