1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Copper, Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Canola Oil [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Alumina, Zinc, Non - ferrous Metals, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum - Palladium, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Iron Ore, Other Metals, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Crude Oil, Bitumen, Shanghai Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Polyester Staple Fiber, Styrene, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, SS, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Before the holiday, the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm, and market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. The stock index is expected to have limited short - term shock adjustment space and mainly show a shock - strong trend [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Although the industrial drive is limited, the market risk preference has increased, and the prices of copper and aluminum are rising. The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing, and there is room for a supplementary increase in zinc prices. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and short - term nickel prices are running at a high level [1]. - The supply of stainless - steel raw materials is unstable, and the futures are oscillating at a high level. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar has limited incremental supply in the first quarter, and there is upward potential for tin prices [1]. - Due to the tense geopolitical situation in Iran, the prices of precious metals have risen strongly, but short - term fluctuations are severe. The prices of platinum and palladium fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to allocate platinum at low prices [1]. - The production of industrial silicon in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December has decreased [1]. - The new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season, but the energy - storage demand is strong. The price of lithium carbonate has risen significantly [1]. - The expected increase in rebar and iron - ore prices is not strong, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. The supply and demand of other metals are in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation [1]. - The supply of soda ash is more relaxed in the medium term, and the price is under pressure. The market is pessimistic about the coking - coal 05 contract, and the previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed [1]. - The purchase rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and the price of palm oil is expected to be shock - strong. The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are strong, and the price is bullish [1]. - The import of Canadian rapeseed is restricted, and the supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. The cotton market is currently supported but lacks driving force [1]. - The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply is increasing. The upward momentum of corn prices before the holiday is insufficient [1]. - The Brazilian soybean supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing up the soybean - meal price. The paper - pulp price has fallen, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - The price of logs is expected to have limited further decline space and will fluctuate within a certain range. The pig - production capacity needs to be further released [1]. - Due to OPEC+ suspending production increase, tense Middle - East geopolitics, and the US cold wave, the price of crude oil is affected [1]. - Bitumen follows the trend of crude oil, and its profit is relatively high. Shanghai rubber is driven by cost and market sentiment to rise [1]. - The fundamentals of BR rubber are mixed, with short - term wide - range fluctuations and medium - long - term upward expectations. The PTA and polyester staple - fiber markets are affected by the strong PX market [1]. - The price of styrene has rebounded, and the inventory pressure has decreased. The methanol market is affected by the Iranian situation and downstream feedback [1]. - The supply of PE and PP is under pressure, and the PVC market has both positive and negative factors. The SS market fundamentals are weak [1]. - The LPG market is affected by multiple factors, and the price is expected to weaken. The freight rate of container shipping on European routes has peaked and fallen before the holiday [1] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index - Before the holiday, the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm, and market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. The short - term shock adjustment space is limited, and it will mainly show a shock - strong trend [1] Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Copper - Although the industrial drive is limited, the market risk preference has increased, and copper prices have risen further [1] Aluminum - Recently, the industrial drive is limited, but the decline of the US dollar index supports the price. Coupled with the tense situation in the Middle East, which causes concerns about the supply side, aluminum prices are running strongly [1] Alumina - The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the industrial situation is weak. The price is under pressure, but it is currently near the cost line and is expected to fluctuate [1] Zinc - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing. Recently, the North American cold wave has increased energy prices, which is unfavorable for the resumption of overseas smelters. There is room for a supplementary increase in zinc prices [1] Non - ferrous Metals - The market risk preference has recovered, which boosts non - ferrous metals. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and short - term nickel prices are running at a high level, still affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous metals sector. In the medium - long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect [1] Stainless Steel - The supply of raw - material nickel - iron prices has been rising continuously, the spot trading of stainless steel is weak, the speed of social - inventory reduction has slowed down, and the steel mills' production schedule in January has increased. The supply - side disturbances are repeated, and the stainless - steel futures are oscillating at a high level [1] Tin - In the short term, the market sentiment is changeable. Although the approval of explosives in Myanmar is a negative news, the incremental supply of tin ore in Myanmar in the first quarter is still limited. Under the situation of fragile supply and rigid demand, there is upward potential for tin prices [1] Precious Metals - Due to the tense geopolitical situation in Iran, the demand for hedging and the wave of de - dollarization have accelerated, and the prices of precious metals have risen strongly again. However, as the market sentiment has fermented to the extreme, the prices of gold and silver have plunged at a high level, with severe short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to participate with a light position [1] Platinum - Palladium - The macro - drive has weakened, and the liquidity is relatively insufficient, resulting in large price fluctuations of platinum and palladium. In the medium - long term, the supply - demand prospects of platinum and palladium are different. There is still a supply - demand gap for platinum, while palladium tends to have a loose supply. It is recommended to allocate platinum at low prices or focus on the [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy [1] Industrial Silicon - The production in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased [1] Polysilicon - The new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season, the energy - storage demand is strong, there is a rush for battery exports, and the price has risen significantly [1] Lithium Carbonate - The expected increase is strong, but the spot market is weak, and the sentiment has not been smoothly transmitted to the spot market. The upward momentum is insufficient [1] Rebar - The expected increase is strong, but the spot market is light, and the sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth. The upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to close the long - single position and participate in the cash - and - carry arbitrage [1] Iron Ore - There is sector rotation, but the upward pressure on iron - ore prices is obvious. It is not recommended to chase up at this position [1] Other Metals - There is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The current supply and demand continue to be weak, but energy - consumption dual control and anti - involution may have an impact on the supply [1] Soda Ash - It mainly follows the trend of glass. The medium - term supply and demand are more relaxed, and the price is under pressure [1] Coking Coal - The market is pessimistic about the coking - coal 05 contract. After the first - round price increase of coke was shelved on Monday, funds began to anticipate the downstream's active de - stocking after the holiday. The short - position increased, and the price of coking - coal 05 broke through the previous important multi - empty boundary and support levels. The previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed [1] Coke - The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Palm Oil - The purchase rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and the production area is expected to reduce production and inventory. Coupled with the possible fermentation of the biodiesel theme, it is expected to be shock - strong [1] Soybean Oil - The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are strong, and coupled with the rebound of US soybeans and positive news about US biodiesel, it is bullish [1] Canola Oil - Due to the influence of the US, the relationship between China and Canada is still uncertain, the continuous import of Canadian rapeseed is blocked, and the short - term supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. Positive news about US biodiesel is beneficial to the oil market [1] Cotton - The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate is low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new - crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "supported but lack of driving force" [1] Sugar - Globally, there is a sugar surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Attention should be paid to the change in the capital side [1] Corn - Before the holiday, the stocking is almost over, the regional price difference is at a low level, and the domestic grain - reserve inventory is sufficient. The funds have taken profit, and the upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate and回调 before the holiday [1] Soybean Meal - In February, there is an expectation of rainfall return in the Argentine production area, and the total supply of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient. The expected logistics congestion has postponed the selling pressure of Brazilian premiums. Unilaterally, there are no conditions for a significant trend - like increase. Currently, the domestic soybean - purchasing and crushing profit is at a high level, and from the perspective of crushing profit, the valuation of the soybean - meal futures is relatively high. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [1] Pulp - Today, the pulp price has fallen due to the decline of the commodity macro - market, but it has not broken through the oscillation range. The short - term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] Logs - The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottom - rebounding recently, and the futures price is expected to have limited further decline space. However, the January overseas offer has still slightly decreased, and the spot and futures markets of logs lack upward - driving factors. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] Pigs - Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the slaughter weight not fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Crude Oil - OPEC+ has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has heated up, and the cold wave in the US has increased energy demand [1] Bitumen - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th - Five - Year Plan rush - work demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit of bitumen is relatively high [1] Shanghai Rubber - The raw - material cost has strong support, the sharp rise of synthetic rubber has driven the sector to strengthen, and the overall atmosphere of the commodity market is bullish [1] BR Rubber - The cost - end butadiene still has strong bottom support, and the overseas cracking - device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long - term domestic butadiene export expectation. Recently, the profit of private cis - butadiene rubber plants has been severely lost, and the expectation of maintenance and production reduction has increased, and the short - term downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. Fundamentally, butadiene is in the process of inventory reduction, and the high inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring - Festival inventory reduction of cis - butadiene rubber and the performance of butadiene inventory. The short - term futures price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation and a callback, and there is an upward expectation for BR in the medium - long term [1] PTA - The PX market has strongly led the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds have flowed into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market has significantly increased the allocation of chemical products. Polyester has led the rise of the entire chemical sector. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, there is no new PTA production capacity in China, the domestic PTA has maintained a high - operation rate, the domestic demand has declined, and the production reduction of polyester factories has had a limited negative feedback on PTA [1] Polyester Staple Fiber - The PX market has strongly led the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds have flowed into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market has significantly increased the allocation of chemical products. Polyester has led the rise of the entire chemical sector. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, there is no new PTA production capacity in China, the domestic PTA has maintained a high - operation rate, the domestic demand has declined, and the price of polyester staple fiber continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1] Styrene - There is news that the styrene plant in the Middle East has shut down. As the supply - demand fundamentals of styrene have improved marginally, the styrene futures price has rebounded rapidly. The Asian styrene market has stabilized, supported by the increase in domestic export opportunities and the rise of domestic prices. The styrene - benzene price difference has widened, and the economy has been slightly repaired. The styrene inventory has decreased, and the overall inventory pressure has been reduced [1] Methanol - Methanol is generally affected by the situation in Iran, and it is expected that the future import will decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious, with both long and short factors intertwined. The downstream MTO leading plant has shut down, and some enterprises have reduced production, but Fude will restart on January 25th. The situation in Iran has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. Affected by the cold air, the freight in the inland area has increased, and the northwest enterprises have a large pressure to reduce inventory and sell at a reduced price [1] PE - The overseas ethylene glycol price has rebounded after a long - term slump. The reduction of ethylene glycol exports in the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 - million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu plans to switch the production of a 900,000 - ton EG production line in mid - February due to profit reasons. Driven by this news, the speculative demand in the market has significantly increased [1] PP - There are few maintenance operations, the operation load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream improvement is less than expected. The price has returned to a reasonable range. The geopolitical conflict has intensified, and there is a risk of crude - oil price increase [1] PVC - In 2026, the global new production capacity is relatively small, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. The fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate has been cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing for exports later. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the elimination of PVC production capacity [1] SS - The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, and the futures price is expected to react to the fundamentals again. The fundamentals are weak, and the absolute price is at a low level. The factory is facing continuous inventory accumulation, and the spot price may still be reduced [1] LPG - The March CP is expected to decline compared with February, and the futures sentiment will switch between fundamentals and sentiment. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has cooled down, and the short - term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave is gradually weakening, the futures price is expected to weaken, and the basis is expected to gradually widen. The domestic PDH operation rate has declined, the profit is expected to be seasonally repaired, the global civil - combustion rigid demand is stable, the demand for MTBE

Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating Core Views - The steel market is in a seasonal off - peak, with limited demand support, and the strategy is to treat it with a sideways thinking. The hot - rolled coil basis is favorable for spot - futures positions, and the hot - rolled coil spot - futures positive spread can still be rolled [2]. - The price of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese may fluctuate strongly in the short term due to market sentiment, although the fundamentals continue to be under pressure with high supply and weak demand [3]. - The coking coal and coke market has limited upward drive. After the first round of coke price increase is implemented and there is speculation in related materials, pay attention to cashing in spot at high prices and shorting opportunities on the futures market [5]. - Iron ore is in a short - term sideways - strong pattern, but there is obvious upward pressure in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term low - buying and long - term short - selling at pressure levels are recommended [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On January 29th, for far - month contracts, RB2610 closed at 3203.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 35.00 yuan (1.10%); HC2610 closed at 3330.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 30.00 yuan (0.91%); J2609 closed at 1791.50 yuan/ton with a gain of 50.00 yuan (2.87%); JM2609 closed at 1242.50 yuan/ton with a gain of 41.00 yuan (3.41%). For near - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3157.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 35.00 yuan (1.12%); HC2605 closed at 3308.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 26.00 yuan (0.79%); J2605 closed at 1723.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 53.50 yuan (3.20%); JM2605 closed at 1165.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 44.00 yuan (3.93%) [1]. - The cross - month spreads on January 29th: RB2605 - 2610 was - 46.00 yuan/ton; HC2605 - 2610 was - 22.00 yuan/ton; 12605 - 2609 was 19.50 yuan/ton; J2605 - 2609 was - 68.50 yuan/ton; JM2605 - 2609 was - 77.50 yuan/ton [1]. - The spreads/ratios/profits on the January 29th for the main contracts: the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread was 151.00 yuan/ton; the rebar to iron ore ratio was 3.95; the coal to coke ratio was 1.48; the rebar futures profit was - 79.78 yuan/ton; the coking futures profit was 173.55 yuan/ton [1]. Spot Market - On January 29th, Shanghai rebar was priced at 3280.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 50.00 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3190.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 50.00 yuan; Guangzhou rebar was 3410.00 yuan/ton with no change; Tangshan billet was 2950.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 20.00 yuan; the Platts Index was 104.15 with a decrease of 1.45 [1]. - Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3310.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 50.00 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3330.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 50.00 yuan; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3300.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 30.00 yuan; the billet - to - product spread was 330.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 30.00 yuan; Rizhao Port's PB powder was 797.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 5.00 yuan [1]. - Qingdao Port's Super Special powder was 666.00 yuan/ton with a decrease of 1.00 yuan; Ganqimaodu's coking refined coal was 1235.00 yuan/ton with no change; Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke (ex - warehouse) was 1430.00 yuan/ton with no change; Qingdao Port's PB was 799.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 6.00 yuan [1]. - The basis on January 29th: HC main contract was 2.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 22.00 yuan; RB main contract was 123.00 yuan/ton with a decrease of 16.00 yuan; J main contract was - 150.37 yuan/ton with a decrease of 39.00 yuan; JM main contract was 100.00 yuan/ton with a decrease of 30.50 yuan [1]. Steel - The steel market is in a seasonal off - peak. The demand support is limited. The price initiative to sell under pressure is not large. The steel mills have the willingness to resume production, but the actual strength and rhythm may be slow. Traders are not willing to do open - position winter storage and it is more suitable to participate in the basis way. The strategy is to treat it with a sideways thinking, and the hot - rolled coil spot - futures positive spread can be rolled [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - With the warming of market sentiment, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuate upward. The direct and terminal demand is weak and difficult to improve in the short - term. The alloy plants' production is still high with poor profits, and the medium - term over - supply pressure remains. The macro - policies are mainly favorable. In the short - term, the prices may fluctuate strongly [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, but the market is not optimistic about the future. The downstream procurement is cautious. The coking coal online auction has many unsold lots. The futures market is affected by the relaxation of the "three red lines" for real - estate enterprises and the stock market rotation. The steel market is in the off - peak season, with weak industrial data. The coal mine supply is gradually recovering, and the downstream has pre - holiday replenishment, but the upward drive for prices is limited. After the short - term rebound, pay attention to cashing in spot at high prices and shorting opportunities on the futures market [5]. Iron Ore - The steel mills' in - plant inventory is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The expectation of steel mills' accelerated resumption of production in February and pre - holiday replenishment support the short - term high price. After the replenishment expectation is fully digested, the port inventory pressure will be the source of pressure. It is recommended to go long in the short - term and short at pressure levels in the long - term [6].

| | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2026/1/30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦敦金现 (美元/盎司) | 伦敦银现 (美元/盎司) | COMEX黄金 (美元/盎司) | COMEX白银 (美元/盎司) | | AU2602 | AG2602 (元/千克) | AU (T+D) (元/克) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 | | | | | | | (元/克) | | | (元/千克) | | 格眼踪 | 2026/1/29 | 5565. 88 | 118. 95 | 5595. 50 | 119. 05 | | 1252. 10 | 30055.00 | 1245. 20 | 29925.00 | | (本表数 | 2026/1/28 | 5264.93 | 114. 87 | 5258 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 铂把数据日报 注:因收盎时间不一致,铂、肥库存及持仓数据部分滞后。 1月29日，铂、纽价格整体冲高，尾盘稍有回落:PT2606合约收跌1.94%至714.1元/克，PD2606合约收跌2.99%至526.6元/克。宏观 层面,国际秩序不确定性仍旧高企,尤其是美国对伊朗极限施压且伊朗表态亦较为强硬,使得伊朗地缘紧张局势持续升温,避险需求 和去美元化演潮加速驱动贵金属价格大幅走强，亦带动针、把价格偏强运行。基本面方面，暂未有较大变化，海外铂把现货相对紧缺 或可继续支撑价格维持高位;但美国决定暂缓对关键矿产加征进口关税,缓解铂、把的关税风险,未来需关注纽约库存是否流出,若 小结 确认,可能会对其上行空间构成压制。综上,预计铂、纽价格短期或高位运行,但波动幅度仍会较大。中长期来看,铂把供需前景存 在差异，铂供需缺口仍存、锂则趋于供应宽松，故策略上建议以单边逢低配置铂为主，或继续关注【多知空肥】套利策略。（仅供参 考) 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，国贸期货力求准确可靠。但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议, 也未针对个别投资者持殊的投 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 II GER期货 航运衍生品数据日报 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钉毅 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind 投资咨询号: Z0021177 从业资格号: F03101843 2026/1/30 | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | 業 | 现值 | 1458 | 1209 | 2084 | 1294 | 2896 | 1595 | | | 前値 | 1574 | 1210 | 2194 | 1305 | 3163 | 1676 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -7.39% | -0.09% | -5.01% | -0.84% | -8.44% | -4.83% | | HS te | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 | | | | | | 数 | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA: The strong PX market leads the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds flow into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market significantly increases the allocation of chemical products, with polyester leading the entire chemical sector. Domestic PTA production continues to grow, and existing domestic PTA plants need to maintain high loads to match the growth of polyester. Indian PTA is operating at full capacity, and a new project has purchased PX for commissioning, further boosting regional demand. Some domestic PX plants are under maintenance, and the PX - naphtha spread continues to expand, prompting refineries to focus on aromatics extraction. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the reduction of polyester factories has a limited negative impact on PTA [2] - Ethylene glycol: After a long - term slump, the price of overseas ethylene glycol has rebounded. The reduction of ethylene glycol exports in the Middle East boosts market confidence. A 1.8 - million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu plans to switch to polyethylene production on one of its 900,000 - ton EG production lines in mid - February due to profit considerations. The supply contraction creates room for price increases [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **INE Crude Oil**: The price on January 28, 2026, was 460.3 yuan/barrel, and on January 29, 2026, it was 472.5 yuan/barrel, with an increase of 12.20 yuan/barrel [2] - **PTA - SC**: The value on January 28, 2026, was 2025.0 yuan/ton, and on January 29, 2026, it was 1898.3 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 126.66 yuan/ton [2] - **PTA/SC Ratio**: It was 1.6054 on January 28, 2026, and 1.5528 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 0.0525 [2] - **CFR China PX**: The price was 924 on January 28, 2026, and 921 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 3 [2] - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: It was 356 on January 28, 2026, and 337 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 19 [2] - **PTA Main Contract Futures Price**: It was 5370 yuan/ton on January 28, 2026, and 5332 yuan/ton on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 38.0 yuan/ton [2] - **PTA Spot Price**: It was 5235 yuan/ton on January 28, 2026, and 5245 yuan/ton on January 29, 2026, with an increase of 10.0 yuan/ton [2] - **Spot Processing Fee**: It was 369.1 yuan/ton on January 28, 2026, and 413.7 yuan/ton on January 29, 2026, with an increase of 44.7 yuan/ton [2] - **Disk Processing Fee**: It was 504.1 yuan/ton on January 28, 2026, and 480.7 yuan/ton on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 23.3 yuan/ton [2] - **MEG Main Contract Futures Price**: It was 3970 yuan/ton on January 28, 2026, and 3957 yuan/ton on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 13.0 yuan/ton [2] - **MEG - Naphtha**: It was (159.45) yuan/ton on January 28, 2026, and (158.64) yuan/ton on January 29, 2026, with an increase of 0.8 [2] - **MEG Inner - Market Price**: It was 3832 on January 28, 2026, and 3829 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 6.0 [2] 3.2 Industry Chain Operating Conditions - **PX Operating Rate**: It remained at 85.82% from January 28 to 29, 2026, with no change [2] - **PTA Operating Rate**: It remained at 75.63% from January 28 to 29, 2026, with no change [2] - **MEG Operating Rate**: It increased from 60.17% on January 28, 2026, to 60.66% on January 29, 2026, with an increase of 0.49% [2] - **Polyester Load**: It decreased from 81.96% on January 28, 2026, to 81.05% on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 0.91% [2] 3.3 Product Prices and Cash Flows - **POY150D/48F**: The price was 7055 on January 28, 2026, and 7030 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 25.0 [2] - **POY Cash Flow**: It decreased from 44 on January 28, 2026, to 13 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 31.0 [2] - **FDY150D/96F**: The price remained at 7220 from January 28 to 29, 2026, with no change [2] - **FDY Cash Flow**: It decreased from (291) on January 28, 2026, to (297) on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 6.0 [2] - **DTY150D/48F**: The price remained at 8110 from January 28 to 29, 2026, with no change [2] - **DTY Cash Flow**: It decreased from (101) on January 28, 2026, to (107) on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 6.0 [2] - **1.4D Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price was 6705 on January 28, 2026, and 6700 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 5 [2] - **Polyester Staple Fiber Cash Flow**: It decreased from 44 on January 28, 2026, to 33 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 11.0 [2] - **Semi - Bright Chip**: The price was 6010 on January 28, 2026, and 6000 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 10.0 [2] - **Chip Cash Flow**: It decreased from (101) on January 28, 2026, to (117) on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 16.0 [2] 3.4 Product Sales Ratios - **Long - Fiber Sales Ratio**: It remained at 30% from January 28 to 29, 2026, with no change [2] - **Short - Fiber Sales Ratio**: It remained at 59% from January 28 to 29, 2026, with no change [2] - **Chip Sales Ratio**: It decreased from 70% on January 28, 2026, to 62% on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 8% [2] 3.5 Device Maintenance - An East China 3.6 - million - ton PTA plant is currently reducing its load and is expected to shut down for maintenance as planned on the 15th [2] - A South China 1.25 - million - ton PIA plant is expected to shut down on the 16th and is initially expected to restart in late March [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank carried out 354 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 143.8 billion yuan on the day, and 1.181 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open - market this week, along with 200 billion yuan of MLF maturing on Monday [3][4] - The central bank emphasized expanding the scope of macro - prudential policies and maintaining financial stability [4] - The stock index trends were divided, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating, and the market showed a rotation between sectors. The market's trading volume remained high, and it is expected that the short - term shock adjustment space of the stock index is limited, and it will mainly show a relatively strong shock before the Spring Festival [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.36% with a - 0.39bp change, DR007 at 1.59% with a 4.28bp change, GC001 at 1.60% with a 12.50bp change, etc [3] - **Bond Yields**: The 1 - year treasury bond yield was 1.29% with a - 0.50bp change, the 5 - year treasury bond yield was 1.58% with a 0.50bp change, and the 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.26% with a 2.00bp change [3] 3.2 Stock Index Futures and Stock Market Data - **Stock Index Futures**: IF当月 rose 1.0% to 4775, IH当月 rose 1.9% to 3124, IC当月 fell 1.1% to 8531, and IM当月 fell 0.7% to 8351 [5] - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.76% to 4753.9, the Shanghai 50 rose 1.65% to 3110.9, the CSI 500 fell 0.97% to 8517.8, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.8% to 8332.2 [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM had different changes, such as IF trading volume increasing by 11.8% to 159,804 and IF open interest decreasing by 0.7% to 323,557 [5] - **Sector Performance**: In the stock market, precious metals, mining, and brewing industries performed strongly, while electronic chemicals, semiconductors, etc. declined [6] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - **IF**: The premium and discount rates for the next - month, current - quarter, next - quarter, and current - month contracts were - 7.23%, - 4.63%, - 0.97%, and 0.89% respectively [7] - **IH**: The premium and discount rates for the next - month, current - quarter, next - quarter, and current - month contracts were - 7.09%, - 4.57%, - 1.80%, and 0.12% respectively [7] - **IC**: The premium and discount rates for the next - month, current - quarter, next - quarter, and current - month contracts were - 2.60%, 0.02%, 1.67%, and 2.66% respectively [7] - **IM**: The premium and discount rates for the next - month, current - quarter, next - quarter, and current - month contracts were - 3.82%, 0.28%, 4.12%, and 5.37% respectively [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PX market strongly leads the rise of chemical products, with significant capital inflow into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cyclical reversal" narrative, the market significantly increases the allocation of chemical products, and polyester leads the entire chemical sector [2] - Domestic PTA production continues to grow. With no new PTA capacity in the country, existing plants need to maintain high loads to match the growth of polyester; India's PTA runs at full capacity, and the new project GMPL has purchased PX for commissioning, further boosting regional demand [2] - Two domestic PX plants are still under maintenance, and the shutdown of some reforming units in Zhejiang Petrochemical restricts aromatic raw materials. There are also planned shutdowns in the Middle East; South Korean plants have the intention to increase load or restart, and the current PX - mixed xylene spread is maintained at about $150 [2] - The PX - naphtha spread continues to expand, significantly higher than the gasoline blending profit, prompting refineries to continuously favor aromatic extraction. Domestic PTA maintains high开工, domestic demand declines, and the production cuts of polyester factories have limited negative feedback on PTA, with bottle - chip profits expanding and short - fiber profits declining [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Indicators Price Indicators - PTA spot price increased from 5235 to 5245, a change of 10 [2] - MEG domestic price decreased from 3835 to 3829, a change of - 6 [2] - PTA closing price decreased from 5370 to 5332, a change of - 38 [2] - MEG closing price decreased from 3970 to 3957, a change of - 13 [2] - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6705 to 6700, a change of - 5 [2] - Short - fiber basis decreased from - 4 to - 18, a change of - 14 [2] - 3 - 4 spread decreased from - 48 to - 56, a change of - 8 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6 [2] - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5300 [2] - The spread between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 1405 to 1400, a change of - 5 [2] - East China water - bottle chip price increased from 6343 to 6351, a change of 8 [2] - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 6343 to 6351, a change of 8 [2] - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 6443 to 6451, a change of 8 [2] - Outer - market water - bottle chip price remained unchanged at 845 [2] - Bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 582 to 584, a change of 1 [2] - T32S pure - polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10700 [2] - T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3995 to 4000, a change of 5 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16800 [2] - Cotton 328 price increased from 15735 to 15880, a change of 145 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1407 to 1355, a change of - 51 [2] - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7300 [2] - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 339 to 333, a change of - 7 [2] - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7895 [2] Market Conditions - Short - fiber: The short - fiber main futures contract rose 32 to 6720. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production plants were mainly stable, and the prices of traders fluctuated slightly with the futures price. Downstream demand was weak, and there was not much trading in the market [2] - Bottle - chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 6380 - 6430 yuan/ton, with the average price rising 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated slightly, the cost - side support was average, most supply - side offers were stable, the market spot supply was tight, downstream terminal demand was mainly for rigid restocking, and the market negotiation focus rose slightly [2] Operating Rate and Production and Sales - Direct - spinning staple fiber load (weekly) decreased from 88.84% to 86.77%, a change of - 2.07% [3] - Polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 60.00% to 55.00%, a change of - 5.00% [3] - Polyester yarn operating rate (weekly) increased from 70.00% to 70.32%, a change of 0.32% [3] - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 55.44% to 54.81%, a change of - 0.63% [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - Recently, the concentrated registration of pulp futures warrants limits the further upward space. The price of hardwood pulp has slightly loosened, and the overall outlook is bearish [6]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On January 29, 2026, SP2601 was priced at 5,584 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.47% and a weekly increase of 1.01%; SP2609 was 5,420 yuan/ton with a 0.52% daily and 0.44% weekly rise; SP2605 was 5,374 yuan/ton, up 0.60% daily and 0.26% weekly [5]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5,380 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 0.37% weekly; Russian Needle was 5,200 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 0.95% weekly; Hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4,600 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 1.08% weekly [5]. - **Foreign Quotes and Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star's foreign quote rose 2.94% to 700 dollars/ton, and its import cost increased 2.91% to 5,721 yuan/ton; Japanese West American Fish's foreign quote rose 1.89% to 540 dollars/ton, and Brazil's Huiyu's import cost increased 1.87% to 4,425 yuan/ton; Chilean Venus's foreign quote remained at 620 dollars/ton, and its import cost stayed at 5,073 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In December 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 77.8 tons, a 7.31% monthly increase; hardwood pulp imports were 135.2 tons, a 23.40% monthly decrease. The shipment volume to China in November 2025 was 178 thousand tons, a 3.00% increase. From January 22 - 29, 2026, hardwood pulp production was 24 tons, and chemimechanical pulp production was 23.7 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper decreased. Double - offset paper production was 18.70 tons; coated paper was 8.30 tons; tissue paper was 29.87 tons; and cardboard was 33.10 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: As of January 29, 2026, the sample inventory of China's major pulp ports was 216.9 tons, a 4.9% increase from the previous period, and the port sample inventory had been increasing for four consecutive weeks [5].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 股指期权数据日报 投资咨询号: Z0000116 国贸期货研究院 2026/1/29 金融行生品中心 李泽矩 从业资格号: F0251925 数据来源: Wind, 国贸期货研究院 行情回顾 成交量(亿) 指数 收盘价 涨跌幅 (8) 成交额(亿元) 2526. 23 上证50 96. 37 3060. 557 0. 27 4717. 9914 沪深300 8294. 14 382. 26 0. 26 0. 21 6273. 57 8399. 7938 349. 66 中证1000 中金所股指期权成交情况 期权成交量 认购期权 认活期权 期权持仓量 认购期权 认活期权 持仓量 日成交量 指数 持仓量 持仓量 (万张) 成交量 成交量 (万张) PCR PCR 上证50 3. 58 2. 51 3.11 0. 42 8. 39 5. 28 0. 59 1. 06 沪深300 6. 29 3. 21 0. 51 20. 24 12. 30 7. 94 9. 49 0. 65 中证1000 21. 88 13. 07 31. 68 15. 92 15. 77 8. 81 ...