Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 42.09 CNY based on a projected PE ratio of 23 times for 2026 [2][5][11]. Core Views - The Canadian government's ban on Hikvision's operations is expected to have a limited impact, as the Canadian market accounts for less than 0.3% of the company's revenue. The company continues to focus on global operations and aims to provide services to Canadian clients despite the ban [1][10]. - The company reported a 10.1% year-on-year growth in overseas revenue for 2024, reaching 31.895 billion CNY, which constitutes 34.5% of total revenue. This indicates a strong momentum in international markets [10]. - The company is committed to its globalization strategy, implementing localized management across various regions to enhance competitiveness and drive growth [10]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 1.57 CNY, 1.83 CNY, and 2.12 CNY for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [2][11]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 89.341 billion CNY in 2023 to 130.399 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12% [4][14]. - Operating profit is forecasted to increase from 16.040 billion CNY in 2023 to 23.268 billion CNY in 2027, with a notable recovery in profit margins after a dip in 2024 [4][14]. Key Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin is projected to remain stable around 44% from 2025 to 2027, indicating effective cost management [4][14]. - The net profit margin is expected to improve from 12.9% in 2024 to 15.0% in 2027, showcasing enhanced profitability [4][14]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to rise from 15.3% in 2024 to 18.4% in 2027, reflecting better utilization of equity capital [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the home appliance industry, indicating a relative strength compared to the market benchmark index [4]. Core Insights - The leading companies in the cleaning and small home appliance sector are undergoing governance optimization, which is expected to improve operations. The overall demand for home appliances is anticipated to rise due to favorable policies and a vibrant new consumption landscape [2][7]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the cleaning and small appliance segments, with significant year-on-year increases in online retail sales for key products such as robotic vacuums and washing machines [7]. - The report suggests that the upcoming air conditioning season may benefit from higher temperatures and lower inventory levels, leading to increased demand for home appliances [2]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends focusing on companies like Stone Technology (688169, Buy) and Bear Electric (002959, Hold) due to their positive changes and internal governance improvements. It also suggests monitoring major white goods leaders like Midea Group (000333, Not Rated) and Haier Smart Home (600690, Buy) for their efficiency and policy benefits [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies that are actively expanding overseas and improving their operational efficiency, such as Hisense Electric (000921, Not Rated) and Hisense Visual (600060, Hold) [2]. - It also points out the potential for kitchen appliance companies like Boss Electric (002508, Buy) and Vatti (002035, Not Rated) to adapt to the easing of real estate pressures and adjust their strategies for overseas markets [2]. Market Trends - The report notes that the demand for cleaning appliances and small home appliances has been robust, with significant growth rates in online sales for key categories. For instance, sales of robotic vacuums increased by 45.93%, washing machines by 41.66%, and health pots by 28.66% year-on-year [7]. - The report anticipates that the growth momentum in these segments will continue, driven by sustained government subsidies and increasing consumer acceptance of these products [7]. Company-Specific Developments - Stone Technology is undergoing a strategic shift with a new management team, which is expected to enhance its operational and governance capabilities. The company plans to issue H-shares in Hong Kong, reflecting a commitment to global expansion [7]. - Bear Electric is also adjusting its management structure to improve strategic alignment and operational efficiency, which may lead to better profit margins in the short term [7].

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 7 月流动性或仍宽松 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 利率债市场周观察 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 债市"抢跑"行情或将延续：固定收益市 | 2025-06-23 | | --- | --- | | 场周观察 | | | 超长信用债行情能持续多久：固定收益市 | 2025-06-23 | | 场周观察 | | | 临近季末关注机构行为冲击：固定收益市 | 2025-06-16 | | 场周观察 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The appointment of Zhang Yujin as the chairman of AVIC Engine Group indicates a potential return to high growth for the engine sector, with a broad market outlook [3][7] - The core technologies in the aviation engine industry are maturing, and the pressure on profitability from high investment in model development is expected to ease [7] - The maintenance, commercial aviation, and gas turbine sectors are opening up broader development opportunities for the aviation engine segment [7] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The aviation engine industry has made significant progress over the past five years, achieving independence from imported engines for military applications and actively participating in the development of domestic commercial engines [7] Market Dynamics - The demand for weaponry and equipment is expected to expand due to ongoing international tensions, which will benefit the military trade market [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific segments within the aviation engine industry, including maintenance, commercial aviation, and gas turbines, as they present substantial growth potential [3][7] - Listed companies under AVIC Group include AVIC Power (600893), AVIC Control (000738), AVIC Technology (600391), and AVIC Materials (688563) [7]

Group 1: Export Trends and Tariff Impacts - The recent Geneva joint statement is seen as a breakthrough in easing US-China trade tensions, but subsequent tariff policy reversals have exceeded expectations, indicating a complex trade environment[4] - The "front-loading + shrinkage" strategy is identified as a key characteristic of China's exports and global trade in 2025, with significant implications for trade volume[4] - Despite concerns about limited "rush exports" before the August tariff exemption expiration, there is still potential for increased exports during this period, particularly in consumer goods[4] Group 2: Inventory and Consumer Behavior - US inventory levels have shown a notable increase, with nominal inventory growth reaching 2.54% year-on-year in March 2025, the second-highest since June 2023, primarily driven by wholesalers[10] - The divergence in inventory and sales ratios suggests that US consumers are beginning to stockpile goods, which may extend the current import replenishment cycle but could lead to greater future demand depletion[15] - The difference between inventory growth and import growth has expanded to over 20 percentage points, indicating significant stockpiling behavior among US residents[15] Group 3: Future Trade Risks and Projections - The long-term risk of increased tariffs from the US remains, with indirect trade channels becoming increasingly important for maintaining trade relations between China and the US[4] - The estimated weighted tariff rate for Chinese exports to the US is approximately 44.3%, with the "Tariff 2.0" expected to have at least double the impact of "Tariff 1.0" on trade volume[42] - Global trade growth risks are significant, with the export-to-GDP ratio likely turning negative in 2025, reflecting a broader trend of trade contraction, particularly in North America[42]

- The report introduces a dividend forecast model to predict the impact of dividends on index futures contracts, specifically for the July contracts of SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices [6][10][19] - The model's construction involves estimating component stocks' net profits, calculating pre-tax dividend totals, assessing the impact of dividends on indices, and predicting the influence on futures contracts based on historical dividend timelines and weights [19][20][22] - The formula for estimating stock weights in the index is provided as: $$\mathrm{w_{it}={\frac{w_{i0}\times\mathrm{\(\1+R\)}}{\sum_{1}^{n}w_{i0}\times\mathrm{\(\1+R\)}}}}$$ where \(w_{i0}\) is the initial weight, and \(R\) is the price change ratio over the period [20] - The theoretical pricing model for futures under discrete dividend distribution is: $$F_t = (S_t - D)(1 + r)$$ where \(F_t\) is the futures price, \(S_t\) is the spot price, \(D\) is the present value of dividends, and \(r\) is the risk-free rate [25] - For continuous dividend distribution, the pricing model is: $$F_t = S_t e^{(r-d)(T-t)}$$ where \(d\) is the annualized dividend yield, and other variables are as defined above [26] - The model predicts dividend points for July contracts as follows: SSE 50 (28.77), CSI 300 (27.38), CSI 500 (13.98), and CSI 1000 (12.41) [6][10][13] - The annualized hedging costs (excluding dividends) for July contracts are: SSE 50 (-3.60%), CSI 300 (1.05%), CSI 500 (6.74%), and CSI 1000 (9.50%) [6][10][13] - The remaining impact of dividends on July contracts is estimated as: SSE 50 (1.06%), CSI 300 (0.70%), CSI 500 (0.24%), and CSI 1000 (0.20%) [13] - The report evaluates the model as a useful tool for identifying arbitrage opportunities and managing hedging costs, particularly in the context of dividend season [6][7][10]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has stated that there will be no interest rate cuts until economic data becomes clearer, suggesting a potential policy adjustment window in September [2][11] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with traders anticipating three rate cuts in 2025, following Powell's hints and dovish signals from other Fed officials [2][11] - Global markets reacted positively to the rising expectations of rate cuts, with major indices such as Nikkei rising by 4.55%, Nasdaq by 4.25%, and Hang Seng by 3.2% [2][11] Group 2 - The report suggests that the A-share market is experiencing a recovery in risk appetite, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.91% and breaking the long-held resistance at 3400 points [3][12] - Short-term risks are identified, including the potential signing of the "Beautiful America Act" by Trump before July 4, 2025, and the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" if trade agreements are not reached by July 9 [3][12] - The report believes that the impact of the "Beautiful America Act" will be less than expected, and the market has already priced in the worst-case scenarios regarding tariffs [3][12][13] Group 3 - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the technology and financial sectors, recommending investments in artificial intelligence, military, semiconductors, and financial technology [5][14] - The focus on the technology sector includes areas such as autonomous driving, innovative pharmaceuticals, solid-state batteries, robotics, commercial aerospace, and nuclear fusion [5][14] - The report also highlights the importance of the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly copper and aluminum [5][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][3]. Core Views - The company held a comprehensive ecosystem launch event on June 26, 2025, introducing products such as the Xiaomi YU7 SUV, Xiaomi AI glasses, and the Xiaomi MIX Flip 2 smartphone [2][11]. - The Xiaomi YU7 has shown strong sales momentum, with over 289,000 pre-orders within the first hour of its launch, significantly surpassing the previous model's performance [12][10]. - The Xiaomi AI glasses are positioned as a personal AI device, featuring advanced hardware and capabilities for smart interaction and enhanced battery life compared to competitors [23][10]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share of 1.35, 1.82, and 2.27 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a target price of 75.95 HKD based on a 38x PE ratio for 2026 [3][26]. - Revenue forecasts indicate a growth trajectory from 270,970 million CNY in 2023 to 690,216 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [5][28]. - Operating profit is expected to increase significantly, from 20,009 million CNY in 2023 to 65,077 million CNY in 2027, indicating strong operational efficiency [5][28]. Product and Ecosystem Development - The Xiaomi YU7 SUV features high performance with a range of 835 km and advanced driving assistance technologies, positioning it competitively in the electric vehicle market [10][18]. - The launch of multiple new products across smartphones, tablets, wearables, and home appliances strengthens the company's ecosystem, enhancing its market presence and growth potential [24][10].

- The Beta factor showed a significant positive return of 6.95% this week, indicating a strong market preference for high Beta stocks [10] - The Liquidity factor also performed well with a return of 5.53%, reflecting increased demand for highly liquid assets [10] - The Volatility factor improved significantly with a return of 4.19%, showing heightened market interest in high-volatility assets [10] - The Trend factor experienced a notable decline, with a return of -1.76%, indicating a reduced market preference for trend-following strategies [11] - The Size factor showed a significant drop with a return of -3.30%, indicating a decreased market focus on small-cap stocks [11] - The Value factor also declined sharply, with a return of -3.55%, reflecting a reduced market preference for value investment strategies [11] - The one-year momentum factor performed well across various indices, including the CSI 500 and CSI 1000, indicating strong performance in the past year [7][24][30] - The DELTAROE factor showed strong performance in indices like the CSI 800 and CSI 2000, indicating robust profitability growth [27][33] - The three-month reversal factor also performed well in multiple indices, reflecting a strong short-term reversal trend [7][24][27] - The UMR factors, including one-month, three-month, and six-month UMR, generally performed poorly across various indices, indicating weak momentum [7][24][27][30] - The public fund index enhancement products for the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 showed varying levels of excess returns, with the CSI 300 products generally outperforming the others [7][46][48][50] - The MFE (Maximized Factor Exposure) portfolio construction method was used to evaluate the effectiveness of individual factors under various constraints, ensuring controlled industry and style exposures [51][52][54][55]

Group 1: Geopolitical Risks and Market Reactions - The recent ceasefire between Israel and Iran has led to a rapid decline in geopolitical risk premiums in oil prices, although further retaliatory actions are expected[5] - The market is currently pricing in two main risks: the overall escalation of the situation and the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with a 52% probability assigned to the latter by Polymarket[11][12] - Despite the recent military actions, both the US and Iran appear to be seeking a temporary de-escalation of tensions, with the US aiming to control the situation rather than eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities[13] Group 2: Economic Implications and Strategic Outlook - A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would benefit oil-producing countries outside the Gulf region, particularly the US and Russia, while harming Gulf states and major consumers like China and Europe[14] - Iran's strategic focus is on repairing its security environment and consolidating a de-escalation of tensions, which contradicts the high-risk nature of a potential blockade[14] - The upcoming EU-China summit on July 23, 2025, may influence market dynamics, although recent criticisms from EU leaders could hinder negotiations[15] Group 3: Market Trends and Financial Indicators - Global stock markets have shown fluctuations, with significant attention on Middle Eastern developments impacting investor sentiment[6] - The 10-year government bond yields have also experienced changes, reflecting market reactions to geopolitical events[8] - The overall atmosphere for EU-China economic negotiations remains cautiously optimistic despite recent tensions, with potential agreements on electric vehicles and rare earth exports[15]