Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 124.57, reflecting a 30% premium over the estimated PE ratio of 40 times for 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company has established itself as a leading brand in China's trendy toy market, with significant growth potential in international markets [1][7]. - The company's revenue and net profit have shown impressive growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 65% and 61% respectively from 2018 to 2023 [19][20]. - The company’s artist IP products are the main revenue driver, contributing approximately 77% of total revenue in 2023 [20][21]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecasted net profits for the company from 2024 to 2026 are expected to be CNY 25.68 billion, CNY 38.58 billion, and CNY 50.37 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of CNY 1.91, CNY 2.87, and CNY 3.75 [2][4]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of CNY 11.77 billion, CNY 16.46 billion, and CNY 21.05 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 86.7%, 39.9%, and 27.9% [4][20]. Company Overview - The company has transitioned through three phases since its establishment in 2010: exploration, rapid growth, and diversification [14][15]. - The company has a strong market position in the trendy toy industry, with a market share of approximately 12% in 2022, up from 9% in 2019 [35][36]. Industry Analysis - The trendy toy market in China has been growing rapidly, with a retail market size of CNY 352 billion in 2022 and a CAGR of 28% from 2015 to 2022 [30][32]. - The global trendy toy market is expected to reach USD 41.8 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 16% from 2019 to 2024 [30][32]. Sales Channels - The company’s main sales channels include offline retail stores, online platforms, and innovative sales methods such as robot stores, contributing 48%, 30%, and 10% to total revenue respectively in 2023 [22][24]. - The company has been expanding its international presence, with overseas revenue accounting for 30% of total income as of 2024 [12][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the textile and apparel industry [5] Core Insights - The high-end outdoor sports market remains vibrant both domestically and internationally, with a notable shift in China's consumer market towards a more competitive landscape where strong brands outperform [4][25] - The report highlights the competitive advantages and moats of leading brands, recommending investments in Anta Sports (02020, Buy), Li Ning (02331, Buy), and Xtep International (01368, Buy), while suggesting to pay attention to Biyinlefen (002832, Buy) and Baoxini (002154, Buy) [4][25] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Amer Sports reported a revenue of $5.183 billion for 2024, an 18% year-on-year increase, exceeding the guidance of 16-17% [7][8] - The adjusted operating profit margin for 2024 was 11.1%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, also above the guidance of 10.5-11% [7][8] - In Q4 2024, revenue reached $1.636 billion, a 23% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 56.1%, up 3.7 percentage points [9][19] Segment Performance - Functional apparel drove overall revenue growth in Q4 2024, with revenue of $745 million, a 33% increase year-on-year [12][14] - Outdoor apparel revenue was $594 million, up 13% year-on-year, primarily driven by Salomon brand [12][14] - Revenue from ball sports and racquet sports reached $296 million, a 22% increase year-on-year [13][14] Regional Insights - The Greater China region remains a key growth engine, with Q4 revenue increasing by 54% year-on-year, followed by the Asia-Pacific region at 52% [16][19] - The Americas and EMEA regions saw revenue growth of 15% and 8% respectively [16][19] Future Guidance - For 2025, Amer Sports projects a revenue growth rate of 13-15%, with specific guidance for functional apparel at 20%, outdoor apparel in the low double digits, and ball sports in the low to mid double digits [21][22] - The company anticipates an operating profit margin of 11.5%-12% for 2025, leaning towards the lower end of the range due to macro uncertainties [21][22] Store Expansion Plans - Amer Sports plans to open 200 stores for the Arc'teryx brand in North America, 75-100 in Europe, 75-100 in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China), and 150-200 in China by 2025 [24][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 21.40 CNY, based on a 20x PE valuation for the comparable companies in 2025 [2][5]. Core Views - The company's overall sales have shown positive growth both year-on-year and month-on-month, indicating that the reforms are beginning to take effect [1][8]. - The company has seen significant improvements in its sales performance, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment and overseas markets, with February wholesale sales increasing by 41.9% year-on-year and 11.7% month-on-month [8]. - The company is undergoing substantial reforms, including a restructuring of its passenger vehicle segment and a deep cooperation agreement with Huawei, which is expected to enhance its brand influence and sales performance [8]. Financial Forecasts and Key Metrics - The forecasted EPS for 2024-2026 is 0.15 CNY, 1.07 CNY, and 1.16 CNY respectively [2]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 611,672 million CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 15.8%, followed by a recovery in 2025 with a growth of 10.2% [4]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 10.2% in 2023 to 11.0% in 2026, while the net profit margin is projected to stabilize around 1.9% by 2026 [4]. - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to drop significantly to 1,771 million CNY in 2024, before rebounding to 12,377 million CNY in 2025 and 13,389 million CNY in 2026 [4].

基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 03 日 看好（维持） | 倪吉 | 021-63325888*7504 | | --- | --- | | | niji@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517120003 | | 顾雪莺 | guxueying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080005 | 寻找景气复苏的周期行业之十三：乙二醇 2025-01-23 站在新秩序的起点：化工行业 2025 年度投 资策略 2024-12-18 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 ⚫ 项目进展不及预期；需求不及预期；海外销售不及预期；原材料价格大幅波动。 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 本周化肥产品持续涨价 ⚫ 我们监测的 188 种化工产品中，本周价格涨幅前 3 名的产品分别为硫酸（上涨 16.6%）、硫磺（上涨 13.4%）、氯化钾（上涨 11.2%）；跌幅 ...

造纸轻工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 3 月智利纸浆外盘报价继续提涨 ——造纸产业链数据每周速递（2025/03/01） 核心观点 ⚫ 本周轻工制造行业指数上涨 0.19%，跑赢大盘 2.41pct；造纸子板块下跌 0.12%， 跑赢大盘 2.11pct。本周沪深 300 指数下跌 2.22%，轻工制造(申万)指数上涨 0.19%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.41pct，在 28 个申万一级行业中位列第 7 位；二级行 业中，造纸子板块下跌 0.12%，跑赢大盘 2.11pct。本周轻工四大子板块按涨幅由大 到小分别为家具、文娱用品、造纸以及包装印刷板块，其中家具板块上涨 0.89%， 文娱用品、造纸以及包装印刷板块分别下跌 0.07%、0.12%、0.41%。 产业链数据跟踪 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 近期 Suzano 宣布 2025 年 3 月阔叶浆报价环比提涨 20 美元/吨、国内现货价格亦开 始触底回升，成本支撑下文化纸、白卡纸有望延续价格修复态势，推荐林浆纸一体 化行业龙头太阳纸业(002078，买入)。同时回溯历史来看，特种纸企业在浆价上行 之后的半年内通常会呈现出盈利扩张，推荐特种纸领军企业仙鹤 ...

有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 2 月制造业 PMI 超预期，关注钢铁板块投 资机会 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 9 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 国内宏观经济增速放缓；美国通胀增速放缓；原材料价格波动 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 03 日 看好（维持） 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | 供给优化需求改善，积极关注稀土产业链 | 2025-02-23 | | --- | --- | | 投 资 机 会 ： — — 有 色 钢 铁 行 业 周 观 点 | | | （2025 年第 8 周） | | | 欧洲引领非美市场制造业前景改善，关注 | 2025-02-16 | | 铜矿股投资机会：——有色钢铁行业周观 | | | 点（2025 年第 7 周） | | | 关税或推升避险与通胀，关注黄金股投资 | 2025-02-09 | | 机会：——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年 | | | 第 ...

核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 按照上述分析，我们预计成品油景气度将维持较好水平，同时销售份额将逐步向正 规渠道转移。正规炼油企业有望受益于炼油利润与成品油份额双重提升，建议关注 荣盛石化、恒力石化、中国石化、中国石油。 风险提示 ⚫ 政策风险；汽油需求不及预期；炼厂项目风险；假设条件变化；产能统计偏差风 险。 国家/地区 中国 行业 石油化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 02 日 看好（维持） 石油化工行业 行业研究 | 深度报告 地炼规范整顿加紧，炼油行业趋势如何 | 倪吉 | 021-63325888*7504 | | --- | --- | | | niji@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517120003 | | 顾雪莺 | guxueying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080005 | 非正规市场份额退出，看好成品油高景气 2023-07-23 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 小型 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and parts industry [5] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential growth in humanoid robotics and the automotive supply chain, suggesting that related companies may see both profit and valuation increases [2][13] - It forecasts that competitive domestic brands and new forces in intelligent driving technology will continue to expand their market share by 2025 [2][13] - The report highlights the strong sales performance of various automotive brands in February, with significant year-on-year growth for both traditional and new energy vehicles [10][27] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends continued focus on humanoid robotics and automotive supply chain investment opportunities, with specific companies expected to benefit [2][13] - Suggested companies for investment include SAIC Motor, BYD, Changan Automobile, and several others in the automotive and parts sectors [2][14] Market Performance - The automotive sector experienced a decline of 3.0%, underperforming compared to the broader market [16] - Notable stock performances included HaiTaiKe and Dele Shares, which saw significant gains, while others like Longsheng Technology faced substantial losses [16][17] Sales Tracking - February sales data indicates a strong performance in the automotive sector, with a 53% year-on-year increase in wholesale sales [25] - New energy vehicle brands like XPeng and Li Auto reported remarkable growth, with XPeng's deliveries increasing by 570% year-on-year [27] Industry Dynamics - The report notes that Tesla is preparing to update its software in China to deploy Full Self-Driving (FSD) features, which could enhance its competitive position in the market [48]

- The report tracks the first batch of Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market) bond funds, with multiple fund companies submitting applications for the Shanghai AAA Sci-Tech Innovation Corporate Bond Index Initiated Fund[1][3][7] - The second batch of Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETFs has started to be listed, with Guotai Fund announcing the issuance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Composite Index ETF from February 24 to March 7, and Tibet Dongcai Fund announcing the issuance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Composite Index ETF from March 3 to March 14[3][7] - The report provides detailed data on the performance of various types of funds, including stock funds, mixed funds, bond funds, and quantitative products, with specific performance metrics such as average returns and net value growth rates[5][21][24] - The report highlights the dynamics of on-exchange funds, noting that the largest ETF tracking target is the CSI 300, with a total scale of 962.894 billion yuan, followed by the CSI A500 and the STAR 50[5][29][31] - The report includes data on the issuance and establishment of new funds, detailing the number and scale of newly established funds in the past year, as well as the specific details of newly issued funds in the current period[8][12][14] - The report provides information on fund manager changes, listing the funds that experienced manager changes in the past week and the fund companies with the most changes[17][19] - The report discusses the potential risks associated with quantitative models, including the impact of extreme market environments and the possibility of model failure based on historical data analysis[5][42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking industry [5]. Core Insights - The banking sector is entering a period of intensive stable growth policies, with monetary easing followed by fiscal measures, significantly impacting the fundamentals of banks in 2025. The central government's fiscal deficit rate has considerable room for improvement, and incremental fiscal policies are expected to support social financing and credit, boosting economic expectations. This environment is likely to benefit cyclical stocks [3]. - The net interest margin for banks is under short-term pressure due to a broad decline in interest rates, but the concentration of high-interest deposits entering a repricing cycle, along with regulatory measures against high-interest deposit solicitation, will provide important support for bank margins in 2025 [3]. - 2025 is anticipated to be a year of solidifying asset quality for banks, with policy support expected to significantly improve risk expectations in real estate and urban investment assets. Certain personal loan categories that have adequately addressed risk exposure and disposal may also see a turning point in asset quality [3]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report highlights three main investment themes: 1. High dividend stocks, particularly state-owned banks like Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398) [3]. 2. Cyclical stocks and quality city commercial banks, recommending attention to China Merchants Bank (600036), Ningbo Bank (002142), Shanghai Bank (601229), Nanjing Bank (601009), and Hangzhou Bank (600926) [3]. 3. Stocks with improving risk expectations, suggesting focus on Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077) and Ping An Bank (000001) due to anticipated improvements in asset quality for consumer loans and credit cards [3]. Financial Performance - As of Q4 2024, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of commercial banks' net profit decreased by 2.3%, with significant performance divergence among different types of banks. State-owned and joint-stock banks showed improvements, while city commercial and rural commercial banks experienced declines [6]. - The total assets and liabilities of commercial banks grew at a rate of 7.2% and 7.3%, respectively, with state-owned banks showing a slowdown in expansion [6]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks was 1.52% for the entire year of 2024, with slight declines observed in city commercial banks and joint-stock banks, while rural commercial banks showed improvement [6]. - The asset quality indicators improved, with non-performing loans decreasing by 97.7 billion yuan and the non-performing loan ratio dropping to 1.50% [6]. Risk Weighted Assets and Capital Adequacy - The growth rate of risk-weighted assets for commercial banks continued to decline, with capital adequacy ratios showing improvement across various bank categories [6].