招商积余 001914.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 | | 买入 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年04月14日） | 12.26 元 | | 目标价格 | 14.04 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 13.33/8.16 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 106,035/106,034 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 13,000 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 房地产 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 04 月 15 日 | 1 周 1 月 3 月 12 月 绝对表现% 8.88 13.1 24.21 29.93 相对表现% 4.15 19.28 25.82 21.78 沪深 300% 4.73 -6.18 -1.61 8.15 赵旭翔 zhaoxuxiang@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860521070001 | sunyixuan@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | | 孙怡萱 | 业绩稳健，非住业态优势显著 2024-03-21 营收业绩双增，基础物管毛利率改善 核心观点 事件：公司 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 28.59 CNY [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing pressure on profitability, but its overseas business is growing rapidly. The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 1.378 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [2][9]. - The company has narrowed its losses significantly, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of -0.18 billion CNY in 2024, a reduction of 74.5% compared to the previous year [9]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, achieving a 121.85% increase in overseas revenue, amounting to 1.01 billion CNY [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 1.286 billion CNY, with a projected increase to 1.802 billion CNY in 2025, representing a growth rate of 30.8% [5][11]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 69.9% in 2024 to 76.4% in 2025 [5][11]. - The net profit margin is projected to turn positive by 2025, reaching 8.6% [5][11]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to recover from -0.05 CNY in 2024 to 0.39 CNY in 2025 [5][11].

传媒行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 阿里 AI 势能大会召开，加强 AI agent 布局 ——AI 周度跟踪 2025 年第 6 期 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 看好 AI 新周期带动算力-算法-应用生态三端依次持续推进，我们建议增加港股互联 网板块配置仓位，核心推荐处于产业链前端，云消费弹性明显+算法具备优势的阿 里巴巴-W(09988，买入)，多模态视频生成模型技术全球领先的快手-W(01024，买 入)，以及卡位最佳社交场景，具备数据+应用生态优势的腾讯控股(00700，买 入)。 风险提示 行业发展及 AI 应用落地不及预期，宏观经济风险，海外政策风险。 | | 看好（维持） | | --- | --- | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 传媒行业 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 04 月 14 日 | | 项雯倩 | 021-63325888*6128 xiangwenqian@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517020003 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQP120 | | 李雨琪 | 021-63325 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 8.14 CNY based on a 2025 PE valuation of 11X [2][5][10]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant improvement in performance due to ongoing high-end project developments and a favorable outlook for downstream demand in the oil and gas sector [1][9]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, predicting earnings per share of 0.74, 0.83, and 0.92 CNY respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.99 and 1.10 CNY for 2025 and 2026 [2][10]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 56.96 billion CNY, a decrease of 14.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.34 billion CNY, down 19.0% [9]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 showed a significant improvement, with a net profit of 2.23 billion CNY, reflecting a 161.08% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 38.04% increase year-on-year [9]. - The company's gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 16.76%, with a slight improvement in the fourth quarter to 17.45% [9]. - The projected financials for 2025-2027 include revenues of 61.94 billion CNY, 69.14 billion CNY, and 74.25 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding net profits of 6.69 billion CNY, 7.51 billion CNY, and 8.32 billion CNY [4][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on high-end product development, particularly in specialized oil casing pipes and high-performance boiler tubes, which are expected to see increased demand due to global energy security strategies [9]. - The company is advancing its high-end projects, with several key product lines entering trial production phases, which are anticipated to contribute positively to future earnings [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 7.52, based on a calculated equity value of RMB 634 billion [2][9][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown a focus on enhancing product structure and shareholder returns, with a significant dividend payout of RMB 27.5 billion and a dividend payout ratio of 78% [8]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 20.75 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 3.57 billion, up 5.3% year-on-year [4][8]. - The company is experiencing a strong performance in its premium product lines, particularly the "卓睿" brand, which is expected to see sales growth exceeding 60% [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: RMB 21.61 billion (2025E), RMB 22.99 billion (2026E), and RMB 24.31 billion (2027E), with respective year-on-year growth rates of 4.1%, 6.4%, and 5.7% [4]. - The forecasted earnings per share for 2025-2027 are RMB 0.44, RMB 0.47, and RMB 0.51, respectively [2][9]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve to 67.1% by 2025, while the net profit margin is projected to reach 18.6% [4][8]. Valuation Metrics - The report utilizes the FCFF valuation method, resulting in a calculated equity value of RMB 634 billion, translating to a target price of HKD 7.52 [2][9]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 15.4 in 2023 to 11.3 by 2027, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [4][8]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown strong performance, with a 62.87% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the Hang Seng Index [6].

传媒行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 阿里 AI 势能大会召开，加强 AI agent 布局 ——AI 周度跟踪 2025 年第 6 期 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 看好 AI 新周期带动算力-算法-应用生态三端依次持续推进，我们建议增加港股互联 网板块配置仓位，核心推荐处于产业链前端，云消费弹性明显+算法具备优势的阿 里巴巴-W(09988，买入)，多模态视频生成模型技术全球领先的快手-W(01024，买 入)，以及卡位最佳社交场景，具备数据+应用生态优势的腾讯控股(00700，买 入)。 风险提示 行业发展及 AI 应用落地不及预期，宏观经济风险，海外政策风险。 | | 看好（维持） | | --- | --- | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 传媒行业 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 04 月 14 日 | | 项雯倩 | 021-63325888*6128 xiangwenqian@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517020003 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQP120 | | 李雨琪 | 021-63325 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 7.52, based on a calculated equity value of RMB 634 billion [2][9][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 20.75 billion for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 3.57 billion, up 5.3% year-on-year. The company has a strong focus on shareholder returns, with a dividend payout of RMB 2.75 billion and a dividend yield of 6% [8][9]. - The product structure has improved, with significant growth in high-end products, particularly the "Zhuo Rui" brand, which saw sales increase by over 60%. The company is also diversifying its product offerings to drive revenue growth [8][9]. - The gross margin improved to 66.3%, benefiting from lower raw milk prices and enhanced product structure, although the net margin slightly decreased to 17.2% due to reduced government subsidies [8][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 21.61 billion, RMB 22.99 billion, and RMB 24.31 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 4.1%, 6.4%, and 5.7% [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be RMB 0.44, RMB 0.47, and RMB 0.51 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][9]. - The company’s financial ratios indicate a gross margin of 67.1% in 2025, a net margin of 18.6%, and a return on equity (ROE) of 13.6% [4][8].

高端项目蓄势待发，业绩改善前景可期 ——常宝股份 2024 年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据公司 2024 年报，我们做出下调公司钢管产品销量、小幅下调公司产品毛利率等 调整，预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益为 0.74、0.83、0.92 元（2025-2026 年原预 测值为 0.99、1.10 元）。根据可比公司 2025 年 11X 的 PE 估值，对应目标价 8.14 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 下游油气及火电资本开支不及预期风险、汽车精密管及特材项目释放不及预期风险、原 材料价格波动风险、汇率大幅波动及出口环境变化风险、宏观经济不及预期风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 6,661 | 5,696 | 6,194 | 6,914 | 7,425 | | 同比增长 (%) | 7.0% | -14.5% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 7.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 852 | 76 ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 固定收益市场周观察 利率方向回归下行后，幅度取决于资金 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 14 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 转债市场 25 年一季度回顾及展望 | 2025-04-08 | | --- | --- | | 4 月或是供给压力缓和期：固定收益市场 | 2025-04-08 | | 周观察 | | | 2025Q1 信用债市场回顾与展望 | 2025-04-07 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研 ...

核心观点 原油相关信息： ⚫ 原油及相关库存：2025 年 4 月 4 日美国原油商业库存 4.423 亿桶，周增加 260 万 桶；汽油库存 2.360 亿桶，周减少 160 万桶；馏分油库存 1.111 亿桶，周减少 350 万桶；丙烷库存 0.45651 亿桶，周增加 150.9 万桶。美国原油产量及钻机数：2025 年 4 月 4 日美国原油产量为 1345.8 万桶/天，周度减少 12.2 万桶/天，较一年前增加 35.8 万桶/天。2025 年 4 月 11 日美国钻机数 583 台，周度减少 7 台，年减少 34 台； 加拿大钻机数 138 台，周减少 15 台，年度减少 3 台。其中美国采油钻机 480 台，周 度减少 9 台，年度减少 26 台。 价格变化： 价差变化： 投资建议与投资标的 基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 继续关注内需及国产替代新材料机会 风险提示 ⚫ 项目进展不及预期；需求不及预期；海外市场供需情况变化；油价大幅波动。 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 14 日 看好（维持） | 倪吉 | 021-63325888*7504 ...