固定收益 | 动态跟踪 4 月或是供给压力缓和期 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 08 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | 继续做波段，把握利率下行机会：2025 年 3 月小品种月报 2025-04-04 二季度债市或可乐观一点：固定收益市场 周观察 2025-03-31 央行多投放流动性了吗？：固定收益市场 周观察 2025-03-25 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 徐沛翔 xup ...

投资策略 | 定期报告 关税风暴，关注国内政策对冲 ——策略周报 0407 研究结论 风险提示 17 张书铭 021-63325888*5152 zhangshuming@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860517080001 张志鹏 zhangzhipeng@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860522020002 段怡芊 duanyiqian@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860524010001 香港证监会牌照：BVI649 薛俊 021-63325888*6005 xuejun@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860515100002 | 从政策博弈到基本面验证：——策略周报 | 2025-03-30 | | --- | --- | | 0331 | | | 情绪退潮、A 股高位回落：——策略周报 | 2025-03-24 | | 0324 | | | A 股延续强势，建议关注科技产业趋势的 | 2025-03-16 | | 反弹行情：——策略周报 0316 | | | 港股表现强势，继续关注科技股中长期行 | 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating and adjusts the target price to HKD 1.73 [4][7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of approximately CNY 6.97 billion for 2024, which is essentially flat year-on-year; the net loss attributable to the parent company is about CNY 451 million, an increase in loss of 3.7% year-on-year; the core net profit attributable to the parent company is approximately CNY 800 million, also flat year-on-year [3][11] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2022 was CNY 7.126 billion, decreasing to CNY 7.010 billion in 2023, and projected to be CNY 6.970 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 0.6% [6] - The operating profit showed a loss of CNY 730 million in 2022, improving to a loss of CNY 412 million in 2023, but projected to worsen again to a loss of CNY 604 million in 2024 [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of CNY 482 million in 2022, a loss of CNY 435 million in 2023, and is projected to be a loss of CNY 451 million in 2024 [6] - The gross margin is expected to be 21.9% in 2024, down from 23.8% in 2023 [6] Business Segment Performance - The property management business revenue reached CNY 6.38 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, accounting for 91.5% of total revenue; community service revenue was CNY 440 million, down 6.5% year-on-year; non-owner value-added services continued to shrink, with revenue decreasing by 61.0% to CNY 147 million [11] - The company’s managed area remained stable at 291 million square meters by the end of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7% [11] - The company focused on core cities, with the signing amount in core cities accounting for approximately 98% of total contracts in 2024 [11] Adjustments and Provisions - The company made a provision for bad debts of CNY 1.087 billion in 2024, with a significant portion (CNY 763 million) related to receivables from related parties, which severely impacted profits [11] - After excluding the effects of provisions and amortization, the core net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was CNY 800 million, remaining flat year-on-year [11]

特宝生物 688278.SH 公司研究 | 年报点评 | | 买入 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年04月03日） | 78.35 元 | | 目标价格 | 87.04 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 88.38/46.3 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 40,680/40,680 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 31,873 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 医药生物 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 04 月 07 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | -2.82 | -2.82 | 6.58 | 23.93 | | 相对表现% | -1.02 | -2.13 | 4.29 | 15.7 | | 沪深 300% | -1.8 | -0.69 | 2.29 | 8.23 | | 伍云飞 | wuyunfei1@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524020001 ...

固定收益 | 专题报告 2025Q1 信用债市场回顾与展望 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预期；数据统计可能存在遗误。 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 07 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 系人 === | | --- | 徐沛翔 xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn 2 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 一季度信用债市场回顾：（1）发行融资：虽受债市波动影响，取消或推迟发行规模 环比提升，但最终总发行量环比基本持平，叠加到期量环比小幅下降，全季净融资 额环比增加 17%。城投债方面，一季度城投债累计发行 1.43 万亿元，环比下降 2%，与此同时到期量环比下降 3%至 1.34 万亿元，最终实现累计净融入 925 亿元， 再次创下同期净融资额新低。产业债方面，一季度产业债合计发行 1.77 万亿元，同 比下降 6%、环比增长 1 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 消费环境新阶段——月度宏观经济回顾与 研究结论 | 高技术行业推升 PMI——3 月 PMI 点评 | 2025-04-02 | | --- | --- | | "关税日"：信息回顾与展望 | 2025-04-02 | | 区域的视角系列（4）：什么是高质量发展 | 2025-03-28 | | 激励资金？ | | 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 07 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 孙国翔 | sunguo ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][18]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2024 met expectations, with significant long-term growth potential driven by its AI tool, KuaLing [1][5]. - The report highlights a stable user base with daily active users (DAU) exceeding 400 million, and a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [5]. - Advertising revenue grew by 13.3% year-on-year, reaching 20.6 billion CNY, although slightly below market expectations [5]. - E-commerce gross merchandise volume (GMV) increased by 14.4% year-on-year to 462.1 billion CNY, with a notable rise in active buyers [5]. - Live streaming revenue showed a smaller decline than expected, down 2.0% year-on-year, indicating improved content quality and user engagement [5]. - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 was 4.7 billion CNY, aligning with expectations, and the company anticipates a net profit of 43 billion CNY in Q1 2025 [5][7]. Summary by Sections User Metrics - DAU remained above 400 million, with MAU increasing by 5.0% to 736 million [5]. - Average daily usage time per user rose by 0.9% to 125.6 minutes [5]. Advertising Performance - Q4 2024 advertising revenue reached 20.6 billion CNY, accounting for 58.3% of total revenue [5]. - The external circulation advertising segment grew significantly, with short dramas and other content types driving growth [5]. E-commerce Insights - E-commerce GMV for Q4 2024 was 462.1 billion CNY, with a 14.4% year-on-year increase [5]. - The number of active buyers rose by 10% year-on-year, reaching 143 million [5]. Live Streaming Developments - Live streaming revenue decreased by 2.0% year-on-year to 9.8 billion CNY, better than market expectations [5]. - The number of signed-up agencies and hosts increased significantly, indicating a healthier ecosystem [5]. Financial Performance - Adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 was 4.7 billion CNY, with a net profit margin of 13.3% [5][7]. - The company expects an adjusted net profit of 194 billion CNY for the full year of 2025 [7]. KuaLing AI Tool - KuaLing's commercial potential is viewed positively, with expectations for significant revenue growth in the medium to long term [6][8]. - The tool has already generated over 100 million CNY in revenue since its monetization began [6].

基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 关注内需及国产替代新材料机会 核心观点 原油相关信息： ⚫ 原油及相关库存：2025 年 3 月 28 日美国原油商业库存 4.398 亿桶，周增加 620 万 桶；汽油库存 2.376 亿桶，周减少 160 万桶；馏分油库存 1.146 亿桶，周增加 30 万 桶；丙烷库存 0.44141 亿桶，周增加 98.3 万桶。美国原油产量及钻机数：2025 年 3 月 28 日美国原油产量为 1358.0 万桶/天，周度增加 0.6 万桶/天，较一年前增加 48 万 桶/天。2025 年 4 月 4 日美国钻机数 590 台，周度减少 2 台，年减少 30 台；加拿大 钻机数 153 台，周减少 10 台，年度增加 17 台。其中美国采油钻机 489 台，周度增 加 5 台，年度减少 19 台。 价格变化： 价差变化： 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 ⚫ 项目进展不及预期；需求不及预期；海外市场供需情况变化；油价大幅波动。 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 07 日 看好（维持） | 倪吉 | 021-63325888*7504 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][18]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2024 met expectations, with significant long-term growth potential driven by its AI capabilities [1][5]. - Daily Active Users (DAU) remained above 400 million, with a year-over-year increase of 4.8%, while Monthly Active Users (MAU) grew by 5.0% to 736 million [5]. - Advertising revenue in Q4 2024 increased by 13.3% year-over-year to 20.6 billion CNY, slightly below market expectations [5]. - E-commerce Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) rose by 14.4% year-over-year to 462.1 billion CNY, with a notable increase in active buyers [5]. - Live streaming revenue decreased by 2.0% year-over-year to 9.8 billion CNY, but the decline was less than expected due to improved content quality [5]. - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 reached 4.7 billion CNY, aligning with expectations, and the company anticipates a full-year adjusted net profit of 19.4 billion CNY for 2025 [5][7]. Summary by Sections User Engagement - DAU maintained over 400 million, with MAU reaching 736 million, indicating strong user retention and engagement [5]. - Average daily usage time per user increased by 0.9% year-over-year to 125.6 minutes [5]. Advertising Performance - Q4 2024 advertising revenue was 20.6 billion CNY, accounting for 58.3% of total revenue, with external circulation growth in the high teens [5]. - The company expects a slowdown in advertising revenue growth in Q1 2025, projecting a year-over-year increase of 7.0% [5]. E-commerce Growth - E-commerce GMV reached 462.1 billion CNY, with a 14.4% year-over-year increase, and the number of active buyers grew by 10% [5]. - The proportion of general merchandise in e-commerce reached 30%, indicating a shift towards diversified product offerings [5]. Live Streaming Insights - Live streaming revenue saw a smaller decline than anticipated, with a year-over-year decrease of 2.0% to 9.8 billion CNY [5]. - The number of signed-up agencies and hosts increased significantly, suggesting a strengthening of the live streaming ecosystem [5]. Financial Performance - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 was 4.7 billion CNY, with a full-year projection of 19.4 billion CNY for 2025 [5][7]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 54.0%, reflecting operational efficiency [5]. Future Outlook - The report highlights the potential of the company's AI tool, KuaLing, which is expected to enhance advertising and e-commerce capabilities [6][8]. - Long-term revenue projections for KuaLing suggest a market potential of 20-25 billion USD, with significant contributions from both B2B and C2C segments [6][9].

核心观点 原油相关信息： ⚫ 原油及相关库存：2025 年 3 月 28 日美国原油商业库存 4.398 亿桶，周增加 620 万 桶；汽油库存 2.376 亿桶，周减少 160 万桶；馏分油库存 1.146 亿桶，周增加 30 万 桶；丙烷库存 0.44141 亿桶，周增加 98.3 万桶。美国原油产量及钻机数：2025 年 3 月 28 日美国原油产量为 1358.0 万桶/天，周度增加 0.6 万桶/天，较一年前增加 48 万 桶/天。2025 年 4 月 4 日美国钻机数 590 台，周度减少 2 台，年减少 30 台；加拿大 钻机数 153 台，周减少 10 台，年度增加 17 台。其中美国采油钻机 489 台，周度增 加 5 台，年度减少 19 台。 基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 关注内需及国产替代新材料机会 价格变化： 价差变化： 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 ⚫ 项目进展不及预期；需求不及预期；海外市场供需情况变化；油价大幅波动。 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 07 日 看好（维持） | 倪吉 | 021-63325888*7504 | | ...