Banking Sector - The banking sector has shown weak absolute and relative performance since Q3 2025, but its attributes of high dividends and low valuations are becoming more prominent [2] - The resilience of the banking fundamentals is strong, with listed banks expected to have slightly better performance growth in Q3 2025 compared to H1 2025, providing a stable foundation for the year [2] - There are six positive factors supporting the current valuation of bank stocks, indicating a potential reallocation opportunity in the banking sector [2] Real Estate Sector - From January to September 2025, the transaction volume of residential land in 100 cities decreased by 6.2% year-on-year, with a total area of 1.54 billion square meters [3] - The average transaction price of land increased by 17.1% year-on-year to 6,847 yuan per square meter, with first-tier cities seeing an average price of 41,137 yuan per square meter, up 42.0% year-on-year [3] - The overall premium rate for the top 30 cities is 11.1%, an increase of 5.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a deepening regional differentiation in the real estate market [3] - Investment recommendations focus on companies like China Merchants Shekou, China Jinmao, China Merchants Jiyu, and China Resources Mixc Life [3] Oil and Gas Sector - The company reported a steady growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, achieving a total revenue of 33.95 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was 1.02 billion yuan, down 4.5% year-on-year and 17.2% quarter-on-quarter [4] - Forecasts for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 are 4.262 billion, 4.698 billion, and 5.215 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating for the company [4] Electronics Sector - The company exceeded profit expectations in Q3 2025, with revenue meeting expectations and cash flow, accounts receivable, and gross margin data indicating a significant improvement in operational quality [5] - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to 14.031 billion, 16.132 billion, and 18.831 billion yuan, reflecting an upward adjustment of 2%, 2%, and 0.1% respectively [5] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 21X, 19X, and 16X for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [5] Internet Media Sector - The company is actively promoting cooperation with Douyin, which is expected to boost advertising gross revenue and overall performance [6] - The SaaS business has stabilized after adjustments, and the company is restructuring its client base in the advertising business by reducing low-margin operations [6] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 remain unchanged, while 2026-2027 revenue forecasts have been slightly revised up to 1.79 billion and 2.00 billion yuan, representing increases of 3% and 6% respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Add" [6] Core Insights - In the first nine months of 2025, the transaction area of residential land in 100 cities decreased by 6% year-on-year, while the average transaction floor price increased by 17% [1] - The overall premium rate for residential land transactions in 30 core cities is 11% [4] - The top three companies in terms of newly added land reserve value are China Overseas Land & Investment (112.4 billion), China Merchants Shekou (94.1 billion), and Greentown China (63.2 billion) [2][90] Summary by Sections 1. Supply and Demand of Land/Residential Land in 100 Cities - In the first nine months of 2025, the supply of land area in 100 cities decreased by 11.9% year-on-year, while the transaction area decreased by 7.2% [11] - The supply of residential land area in 100 cities decreased by 16.5% year-on-year, with a transaction area decrease of 6.2% [20] 2. Transaction Prices of Land/Residential Land - The average transaction floor price of residential land in 100 cities increased by 17.1% year-on-year, reaching 6,847 yuan per square meter [55] - The average transaction floor price in first-tier cities was 41,137 yuan per square meter, up 42% year-on-year [66] 3. Top 50 Real Estate Companies' Land Acquisition - The top 50 real estate companies saw a 63.9% year-on-year increase in newly added land reserve value, totaling 847.6 billion in the first nine months of 2025 [82] - The newly added land reserve area for the top 50 companies increased by 5.5% year-on-year [87] 4. Transaction Situation of Residential Land in 30 Core Cities - In September 2025, the transaction area of residential land in the 30 core cities increased by 16% year-on-year, with a total transaction price of 1,358 billion [96] - The total transaction area for the first nine months was 7,430 million square meters, accounting for 48.1% of the total transaction area in 100 cities [104] 5. Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with strong brand reputation and sales performance in core cities, such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and China Jinmao [118] - Look for companies with rich existing resources and operational brand competitiveness, such as China Resources Land and Shanghai Lingang [118] - Consider the long-term development potential of property services, recommending companies like China Merchants Jiyu and China Resources Vientiane Life [118]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 2.39 HKD per share [4]. Core Insights - The company is actively promoting collaboration with Douyin, which is expected to boost advertising gross revenue and overall performance. The partnership will provide integrated marketing solutions across various platforms under Douyin Group, potentially leading to significant revenue growth in the coming years [1]. - The company anticipates a slight decline in advertising gross revenue for 2025, estimated at approximately 17 billion RMB, due to the strategic elimination of low-quality clients. However, revenue is expected to exceed 20 billion RMB in 2026, driven by the Douyin channel [2]. - The company has secured a 200 million USD investment from Infini Capital, which will be utilized to enhance AI integration in SaaS, expand media channels, and promote overseas business development [3]. Summary by Sections Business Solutions - The company expects advertising gross revenue to reach approximately 17 billion RMB in 2025, with a potential increase to over 20 billion RMB in 2026 due to the Douyin partnership. The net rebate rate improved from 2.1% to 3.85% in the first half of 2025, indicating a positive trend in revenue and profit growth [2]. SaaS Business - The SaaS business is showing signs of stabilization, with expectations for positive growth in 2026. Revenue growth is anticipated from AI-related products and the expansion into local life industries, such as pet services [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly adjusted upwards to 17.9 billion RMB and 20.0 billion RMB, respectively. The report maintains the revenue forecast for 2025 while adjusting the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 upwards by 3% and 6% [3]. Profitability - The company is expected to report a net profit of 217 million RMB in 2026, with a further increase to 367 million RMB in 2027, indicating a recovery in profitability after previous losses [8].

Economic Indicators - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in mainland China decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, marking two consecutive months of decline[2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding for the fifth consecutive month[2] - The GDP for the third quarter grew by 4.8% year-on-year and 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, both exceeding market expectations[2] - For the first three quarters, the economic growth rate was 5.2%[2] Currency Trends - The offshore RMB initially targeted a level of approximately 7.12 against the USD, reaching a high of about 7.0851 on September 17[1] - Following a slight rise in the USD, the offshore RMB fluctuated around 7.12, with a temporary rise to 7.1535 but failing to break the 50-day moving average[1] - The RMB is expected to test the high of approximately 7.085 again in the fourth quarter, despite uncertainties from U.S. trade policies[1][3] - The People's Bank of China has signaled moderate easing, which may support the RMB as the economy continues to stabilize[3]

2025 年 10 月 22 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】黄金"狂欢"未歇，铜价能否共舞？——《光大投资时钟》系列报告第二十 六篇 近期在中美贸易风波再起、鲍威尔透露未来结束缩表、美国地区银行爆雷等多重事件 发酵下，国内外资金加速流入黄金市场。短期内利多因素交易相对充分，金价涨势或 有所放缓，但长期看，本轮牛市行情远未结束。在金价加速上涨后，铜价有望迎来补 涨行情。一则，铜金比处在历史极低水平；二则，在全球能源转型、AI 革命的双轮驱 动下，铜的战略地位日益凸显，正进入一轮结构性紧缺周期。 【食饮】门店端积极调整，冻干业务带来新增量——煌上煌（002695.SZ）2025 年三 季报点评(增持) 煌上煌发布 2025 年三季报，公司 25Q3 单季度实现营业收入 3.94 亿元，同比增长 0.62%；归母净利润 0.24 亿元，同比增长 34.31%。预测 2025-2027 年归母净利润 预测至 1.11/1.53/1.77 亿元，对应 EPS 为 0.20/0.27/0.32 元，当前股价对应 P/E 分 别为 65/47/41 倍，公司产品力优秀，品牌力良好，维持"增持"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 33.95 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.85 billion yuan, up 6.1% year-on-year [4][5] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement while enhancing its core capabilities, which is expected to drive long-term growth [6][7] - The company is actively responding to the "seven-year action plan" for oil and gas resource increase, which is anticipated to open up long-term growth opportunities [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 11.35 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.7% year-on-year and 9.4% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 1.02 billion yuan, down 4.5% year-on-year and 17.2% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - The annualized ROE for the first three quarters was 20.5%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the cost-to-profit margin improved to 9.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [5] Cost Management and Efficiency - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 16.16%, an increase of 1.55 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting the company's commitment to cost control and efficiency enhancement [6] - The company is advancing its traditional industries towards high-end, intelligent, and green transformations, with significant investments in digitalization and smart factory initiatives [6] Industry Outlook - The domestic oilfield service industry is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity due to the ongoing "resource increase" initiatives, which will benefit the company [8] - The company is enhancing its core capabilities through technological innovations and domestic replacements, which are expected to shift its growth from volume-driven to value-driven [7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.26 billion yuan, 4.70 billion yuan, and 5.22 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.42 yuan, 0.46 yuan, and 0.51 yuan [8][10]

2025 年 10 月 21 日 总量研究 黄金"狂欢"未歇，铜价能否共舞？ ——《光大投资时钟》系列报告第二十六篇 要点 核心观点： 近期在中美贸易风波再起、鲍威尔透露将在未来结束缩表、美国地区银行爆雷等 多重事件发酵下，国内外资金加速流入黄金市场。考虑到短期内金价的利多因素 基本交易充分，预计金价上涨动能或有所放缓，但长期看，本轮牛市行情远未结 束。在金价加速上涨后，铜价有望迎来补涨行情。一则，铜金比处在历史极低水 平，存在向上修复空间；二则，在全球能源转型、AI 革命的双轮驱动下，铜的 战略性地位日益凸显，供给约束叠加需求扩张的背景下，铜正进入一轮结构性紧 缺周期，其价格中枢或长期抬升。 上周五（2025 年 10 月 17 日）市场情绪急剧释放后，金价自高位回调。近期在 中美贸易风波再起、鲍威尔透露将在未来结束缩表、美国地区银行爆雷等多重事 件发酵下，国内外资金加速流入黄金市场。考虑到年内剩余两次降息空间已完全 计价，叠加中美贸易摩擦边际降温，短期内金价的利多因素基本交易充分，我们 预计短期金价的上涨动能或有所放缓。但若未来有黑天鹅事件发生，不排除黄金 价格继续冲高的可能。 长期来看，我们看多黄金的大 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.379 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 5.08%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 101 million yuan, an increase of 28.59% [1]. - The company is actively adjusting its store model and integrating freeze-dried products, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth [2]. - The gross margin improved to 35.65% in Q3 2025, reflecting a recovery in profitability despite a slight year-on-year decline [3]. - The acquisition of a 51% stake in Lixing Food for 495 million yuan is anticipated to enhance revenue and profit, leveraging Lixing's strong market position in freeze-dried products [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 394 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.62%, and a net profit of 24 million yuan, up 34.31% [1]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 33.02%, with Q3 showing a margin of 35.65%, indicating a recovery trend [3]. Business Strategy - The company is closing unprofitable stores and experimenting with new store models that include non-marinated snacks and beverages, which have shown improved performance in pilot locations [2]. - The integration of Lixing Food is expected to diversify product offerings and reduce transportation costs associated with the hot marinated food model [2]. Profitability and Valuation - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 111 million, 153 million, and 177 million yuan respectively, with significant upward revisions of 26%, 50%, and 59% from previous estimates [4]. - The estimated EPS for 2025-2027 is projected at 0.20, 0.27, and 0.32 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 65, 47, and 41 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 370 to 400 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 13.75% to 20.22%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 29 to 34 million yuan, a decline of 66.42% to 71.36% year-on-year [1] - The materials business is anticipated to grow steadily, with expected revenue of 310 to 330 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.68% to 9.31%. The equipment business, however, is expected to see a revenue drop of 56.66% to 62.85% [2] - A strategic cooperation framework agreement has been signed with BOE Technology Group, focusing on comprehensive collaboration in equipment and materials, which is expected to enhance the company's performance and growth potential [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 2025, the company forecasts a net profit of 127 million yuan, with a growth rate of 40.85% in 2026 and 91.30% in 2027 [4][5] - The revenue growth rate is projected to be 31.30% in 2025, 56.49% in 2026, and 35.88% in 2027 [5] Financial Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.51 yuan in 2025, increasing to 0.98 yuan in 2026 and 1.42 yuan in 2027 [5] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 7.03% in 2025 to 15.78% in 2027 [12] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 47 in 2025 to 17 in 2027, indicating a potential increase in valuation attractiveness [5][13] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to be 3.3 in 2025, decreasing to 2.7 by 2027 [5][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company has shown significant profit growth in Q3 2025, with a net profit increase of 60.83% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin has steadily improved, and the expense ratio has decreased, contributing to the substantial profit growth [2] - The company is solidifying its leading position in the anti-aging agent industry and is expanding its lubricant additive customer base [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027 upwards due to continuous gross margin recovery and expense optimization [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.509 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.72%, and a net profit of 392 million yuan, up 24.92% year-on-year [1] - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.514 billion yuan, a 4.77% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 151 million yuan, reflecting a 60.83% year-on-year growth [1][2] Margin and Expense Analysis - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 21.97%, an increase of 1.37 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company reduced its sales, management, and R&D expenses by 0.45%, 17.37%, and 37.95% respectively in Q3 2025 [2] - The operating cash flow for Q3 2025 reached a net inflow of 339 million yuan, marking the highest quarterly operating cash flow in the company's history [2] Strategic Developments - The company is enhancing its production capacity in anti-aging agents and lubricant additives, with plans to establish an overseas R&D and production base in Malaysia [3] - The company is actively involved in setting standards for engine lubricants in China and collaborating with major international and domestic additive companies [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 555 million yuan, 652 million yuan, and 744 million yuan respectively, reflecting an increase from previous estimates [3] - The company’s projected revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are 17.71%, 17.12%, and 10.63% respectively [5]