Core Insights - The report highlights a differentiated recovery in consumer spending, emphasizing structural opportunities within the service sector, particularly in dining, education, and travel industries [3][5]. Group 1: Sector Review - The consumer confidence index in China has shown a slight recovery, but consumer willingness remains cautious, with a notable increase in savings and a decline in credit consumption [9][10]. - Service consumption is growing significantly faster than goods consumption, with a widening gap in growth rates, indicating a shift towards experience and service-oriented spending [21][25]. - Lower-tier cities are outperforming higher-tier cities in terms of consumption growth, driven by rising disposable incomes and stable property values [28][35]. Group 2: Dining Sector - The dining sector is experiencing a weak recovery, with a focus on cost-effectiveness and freshness. Recommendations include high-value brands like Xiaocaiyuan and Guming, as well as industrialized tea brands like Mixue [5][73]. - The average dining price has been under pressure, with a decline from 85 yuan in October 2023 to 73 yuan in November 2025, reflecting a shift towards more affordable dining options [72][76]. - The market share is increasingly concentrated among leading dining enterprises, with the revenue share of large-scale dining businesses rising from 20.2% in 2019 to 28.6% in 2025 [72][73]. Group 3: Education Sector - The education sector is witnessing strong demand, with improved competitive dynamics and reduced uncertainty due to clearer policies. Key players include TAL Education and Xueda Education, which leverage AI capabilities [5]. Group 4: Travel and Hospitality Sector - The domestic leisure travel market is growing, with inbound tourism contributing to incremental growth. Recommendations include focusing on scenic areas with strong operational capabilities like Emei Mountain and Changbai Mountain [5]. - The hotel sector is seeing a gradual recovery, with mid-to-high-end hotels performing better than budget hotels. The average daily rate (ADR) for high-end hotels has returned to pre-pandemic levels [60][63].

2026 年 1 月 16 日 行业研究 M2 增速升至 8.5%，财政货币一揽子政策蓄势待发 ——2025 年 12 月份金融数据及财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策点评 银行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 信贷投放较早呈现年末收官特征——2025 年 11 月 份金融数据点评 贷款增长再现"小月"，社融与货币降速——2025 年 10 月份金融数据点评 事件： 贷款熨平波动，货币持续活化——2025 年 9 月份 金融数据点评 社融遇拐点，货币见活化——2025 年 8 月份金融 数据点评 1、2026 年 1 月 15 日，央行公布了 12 月金融统计数据，数据显示： （3）新增人民币贷款 9100 亿，同比少增 800 亿，增速 6.4%，同 11 月末持平； 信贷扩张季节性回落，存款资金入市节奏提速 —— ...

2026 年 1 月 16 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】结构性降息影响几何？——2025 年 12 月金融数据&国新办会议点评 12 月金融数据平稳收官：企业信贷增长加快是一大亮点，但考虑春节错位因素，持 续性值得关注；人民币升值推动居民结汇，居民存款大幅增长；股市持续活跃仍将提 振 M2 增速。货币政策结构性降息以及扩大并优化结构性工具的使用，更有利于提振 风险偏好，短期内股强债弱的格局将持续。风险提示:财政刺激政策落地不及预期； 流动性投放有缺口导致资金面出现波动。 【宏观】消费反弹，美国一季度经济继续偏强——2025 年 11 月美国零售数据点评 考虑到关税政策与政府停摆扰动影响收敛，叠加 11 月是传统消费旺季，美国消费数 据回升在"意料之中"，11 月零售环比增速录得+0.6%，高于预期。展望看，基数效 应下，如果 2026 年一季度政府可以顺利完成运转，则在政府预算集中支出和税收返 还的影响下，2026 年一季度美国各项经济数据或显著上行，短期内进一步降息必要 性不强，待新一届美联储主席上任后，降息节奏或有所加快。 行业研究 【电新】渠道与场景加持，光伏组件企业大举进入储 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the solar component companies entering the energy storage sector, suggesting a new growth space for these companies [4]. Core Insights - Leading solar component companies are accelerating their entry into the energy storage market, with notable players like Canadian Solar, Trina Solar, Jinko Solar, JA Solar, and LONGi Green Energy making significant moves [3][9]. - The entry of these companies into the energy storage sector is supported by two main advantages: strong customer channels and the ability to leverage existing global networks [3][13]. - The energy storage market is characterized by a strong binding trend between solar and storage projects, particularly in regions with rapidly growing electricity demand [21]. Summary by Sections 1. Accelerated Layout of Leading Component Companies in Energy Storage - Major solar component companies are focusing on large-scale energy storage, with significant market potential and a trend towards joint development of solar-storage projects [9][11]. 2. Competitive Advantages: Reusing Global Networks in Customer and Channel - Solar and energy storage customers overlap significantly, providing solar companies with inherent customer acquisition advantages [13][17]. - Leading solar companies have established global sales and service systems, enhancing their ability to develop energy storage businesses [17][20]. 3. Competitive Advantages: Strong Binding of Scenarios and Applications - The trend of integrating solar and energy storage projects is becoming mainstream, especially in countries with less developed electricity markets [21]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes that the entry of solar component companies into the energy storage sector is expected to open new growth opportunities, with a focus on three key indicators for assessing growth potential: commitment to energy storage, overseas market expansion in the next 1-2 years, and profitability contributions [4][24]. - Specific companies to watch include Canadian Solar, which has already seen significant profit contributions from its energy storage business, and Trina Solar, which is rapidly expanding its overseas energy storage operations [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the electric power equipment and new energy sector, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months compared to the market benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the State Grid's fixed asset investment exceeded 2.85 trillion yuan, with a record high of over 650 billion yuan in 2025. The planned investment for the "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, representing a 40% increase from the previous period, with an average annual investment of 800 billion yuan and a compound annual growth rate of 7% from 2026 to 2030 [1][4]. - The State Grid aims to focus on green transformation, targeting an average annual increase of 200 million kilowatts in installed wind and solar energy capacity, with non-fossil energy consumption expected to reach 25% and electricity's share in terminal energy consumption to reach 35% [2]. - The State Grid plans to enhance its transmission capacity by over 30% by the end of the "15th Five-Year Plan," supporting the development of clean energy bases. The construction of ultra-high voltage projects is expected to continue to thrive, with significant investments in both main and distribution networks [3][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Plans - The State Grid's fixed asset investment is projected to reach 4 trillion yuan during the "15th Five-Year Plan," with a 40% increase from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1]. - The average annual investment is set at 800 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 7% anticipated from 2026 to 2030 [1]. Green Transformation - The State Grid is committed to achieving national emission reduction targets, with significant increases in renewable energy capacity and consumption [2]. - The focus will be on enhancing system regulation capabilities and supporting the development of new energy storage solutions [2]. Infrastructure Development - The State Grid aims to build a new type of grid platform that integrates main, distribution, and micro grids, with a focus on digital infrastructure [3]. - The construction of ultra-high voltage transmission lines is expected to continue, with a goal of increasing cross-regional transmission capacity significantly [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth potential in the main grid construction, distribution networks, and digital transformation of the grid [4].

Economic Performance - In November 2025, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month, surpassing market expectations of 0.4%[6] - Core retail sales (excluding automobiles and gasoline) rose by 0.5%, also above the expected 0.4%[5] - The consumer confidence index reached 54.0 in January 2026, up from 51.0 in October 2025 and 52.9 in November 2025, indicating improved consumer sentiment[23] Market Reactions - Following the release of retail data, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices fell by 0.09%, 0.53%, and 1.00% respectively[2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 3 basis points to 4.15%, while the 2-year yield fell by 2 basis points to 3.51%[2] Future Outlook - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 is expected to decline to 1.1% from 4.3% in Q3, but a rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in Q1 2026 due to a low base effect[8] - Tax refunds in Q1 2026 are projected to total between $100 billion and $150 billion, potentially boosting GDP growth by 0.2-0.3 percentage points[9] Interest Rate Projections - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve may first cut interest rates in June 2026, with a 47.0% probability of a 25 basis point reduction[26] - The likelihood of a government shutdown at the end of January 2026 is currently estimated at 30%, considered a low probability event[10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future investment returns [4][6]. Core Insights - The coating and developing equipment market is highly concentrated, with a pressing demand for domestic alternatives. The company is the only domestic provider capable of offering mass production front-end coating and developing equipment, positioning it well to benefit from this urgent need for domestic substitution [1]. - The semiconductor equipment market remains robust, with global sales expected to reach $115.7 billion in 2025, driven primarily by advanced logic and memory demand. The company is poised to benefit from this growth as domestic semiconductor equipment companies are likely to see increased bidding activity [2]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 990 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 10.35%, but overall orders showed a year-on-year increase. The front-end equipment orders accounted for 60% of total orders, with significant growth in orders for high-end chemical cleaning machines [3]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 1,717 million yuan in 2023 to 3,508 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 39.42% [5][10]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 64 million yuan, a decrease of 81% from previous estimates, with projections of 255 million yuan for 2026 and 525 million yuan for 2027 [4][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to decline to 0.32 yuan in 2025, before rebounding to 1.26 yuan in 2026 and 2.60 yuan in 2027 [5][10]. Market Position and Performance - The company has established itself as a leader in the domestic market for advanced packaging and developing equipment, securing repeat orders from major clients such as TSMC and other leading domestic manufacturers [3]. - The company's financial metrics indicate a projected return on equity (ROE) of 15.14% by 2027, reflecting a recovery in profitability as the market conditions improve [12].

2026 年 1 月 15 日 公司研究 净利润增速稳健，不良率稳中略降 ——中信银行（601998.SH）2025 年业绩快报点评 增持（维持） 当前价：7.60 元 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-50578031 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：董文欣 执业证书编号：S0930521090001 010-57378035 dongwx@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 556.45 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 4,229.03 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 6.11/8.69 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 15.02% | 股价相对走势 资料来源：Wind | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | -1.75 | 0.12 | -5.73 | | 绝对 | 2.43 | 3.06 | 18.39 | 资料来源：Wind 要点 事件： 不良贷款率较 3Q 末下降 1bp 至 1.15%，拨备 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates optimism for China's export performance in 2026, driven by high-tech products, integrated circuits, and automobiles, despite facing a high year-on-year comparison base [2] - The report highlights that the easing of inflation concerns in the U.S. is not sufficient to influence the interest rate cut schedule for the year, with a low probability of cuts in the first quarter [3] - The chemical industry is transitioning from mere digitization to intelligence under the guidance of national "AI+" policies, with companies adopting three main paths for implementation [4] Group 2 - The report provides a detailed analysis of the A-share market performance, noting a slight decline in major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index showed positive growth [5] - It outlines the closing prices and percentage changes for various commodities, indicating a rise in gold, fuel, and copper prices, while also providing insights into the foreign exchange market with the USD/CNY exchange rate [5]

Export Performance - In December 2025, China's exports reached $357.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, surpassing the expected 2.2%[2] - The cumulative year-on-year growth for exports in 2025 was 5.5%[3] - High-tech products, integrated circuits, and automobiles were the main drivers of export growth, while labor-intensive products showed weak contributions[3] Import Trends - Imports in December 2025 totaled $243.64 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, up from 1.9% in November[2][18] - Key imports included copper and iron ore, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 33.2% and 10.1%[18] Trade Balance - The trade surplus for December 2025 was $114.14 billion, slightly up from $111.68 billion in the previous month[2] Regional Export Dynamics - Exports to the EU and ASEAN grew by 11.6% and 11.1% respectively, while exports to the US fell by 30.0%[5] - The combined share of exports to the US, EU, and ASEAN accounted for 42.6% of total exports[5] Future Outlook - The outlook for 2026 remains optimistic, driven by fiscal expansion in major economies and alignment of China's competitive industries with global demand[22] - Potential impacts from easing US-China trade tensions and possible changes in tax policies in the EU and Japan are expected to have limited effects on exports[22] Risks - Risks include potential inflation in the US, high interest rates affecting global demand, and escalating international trade conflicts[25]