2026 年 3 月 1 日 总量研究 如何看待"HALO 交易"？ ——《光大投资时钟》第三十篇 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 "安全"的溢价：地缘政治如何重塑全球利 率曲线？——《光大投资时钟》系列第二十 九篇（2026-02-10） 黄金权重下调，需要担忧么？——《光大投 资时钟》第二十八篇（2025-12-24） "猪周期"投资的新范式——《光大投资时 钟》第二十七篇（2025-12-15） 黄金"狂欢"未歇，铜价能否共舞？—— 《光大投资时钟》系列报告第二十六篇 （2025-10-21） 黄金周：黄金上涨的三个新变量——《光大 投资时钟》系列报告第二十五篇（2025- 10-08） 美国政府停摆：可能性与市场影响——《大 国博弈》系列第八十九篇（2025-09-25） 稳定币：从数字美元到霸权上链 ——《大国 博弈》系列第八十八篇（2025-07-25） 特朗普为何加速推进 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the upward trend of copper prices in 2026, with SHFE copper closing at 103,920 CNY/ton and LME copper at 13,296 USD/ton, reflecting increases of 1.55% and 2.56% respectively [1][15]. - Supply-demand dynamics remain tight, with expectations for copper prices to continue rising due to supply constraints and improving demand [4]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 50.4% compared to February 12, 2026, while LME copper inventory rose by 5.0% [2][23]. - As of February 27, 2026, global inventory across major exchanges totaled 1.247 million tons, up 48.3% from February 13, 2026 [2][23]. Supply - China's electrolytic copper production in February 2026 was 1.1424 million tons, down 3.1% month-on-month but up 8.0% year-on-year [3][59]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 2,689 CNY/ton, down 410 CNY/ton from February 13, 2026 [2][53]. Demand - Cable manufacturing utilization rate increased by 11.5 percentage points week-on-week, reaching 27.72% [3][70]. - Air conditioning production for March to May 2026 is projected to decrease by 6.1%, followed by increases of 2.9% and 4.9% in subsequent months [3][70]. Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 46% compared to February 13, 2026, with a total of 204,000 contracts [4][29]. - The report recommends stocks such as Zijin Mining, Western Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum for investment [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the public utility sector, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The public utility sector experienced a 1.89% increase this week, ranking 6th among 31 sectors, with significant gains in thermal power (8.93%), photovoltaic power (8.25%), and comprehensive energy services (12.37%) [14]. - The report highlights a rebound in domestic and imported coal prices, with domestic coal prices rising by 24 CNY/ton and imported coal prices increasing by 20-30 CNY/ton [8]. - The total installed power generation capacity in China reached 389,134 MW by the end of 2025, marking a 16.1% year-on-year growth, with notable increases in renewable energy sources such as wind (22.9%) and solar (35.4%) [2][7]. - The report emphasizes the investment opportunity in the "Token" sector, driven by a favorable electricity price advantage and increasing electricity demand, suggesting a focus on companies with competitive valuations in power operations [3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The public utility sector's performance this week was strong, with various sub-sectors showing significant growth, particularly in thermal and renewable energy [14]. - The average clearing prices for electricity in Shanxi and Guangdong increased significantly, indicating a tightening market [9]. Coal and Electricity Prices - Domestic coal prices have rebounded, with specific increases noted for various grades of coal, reflecting market dynamics [8]. - The report notes a nationwide decline in proxy electricity purchase costs, attributed to lower long-term thermal power prices and the entry of renewable energy into the market [9][10]. Installed Capacity and Generation - The report details the growth in installed capacity across different energy sources, with thermal power showing a modest increase while renewables like solar and wind are experiencing rapid growth [2][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in "computing electricity" and those with attractive valuations, recommending specific companies such as Funiu Co., Gansu Energy, and others for potential investment [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [6]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated excellent external expansion and continues to maintain generous dividends, reinforcing its position as a comprehensive property management service provider [2]. - The company has established a stable market-oriented partnership with its affiliate, CIFI Group, which helps mitigate negative impacts from the downturn in the real estate sector [2]. - The company has significantly improved its third-party market expansion capabilities, achieving a record high in external contract revenue growth [2]. - The company’s property management revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 2.67 billion HKD, with a balanced contribution from residential and non-residential sectors [3]. - The company declared a total interim dividend of 0.0949 HKD per share, resulting in an attractive dividend yield of 5.3% [3]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 6.54 billion HKD in 2023 to 7.37 billion HKD by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.2% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline slightly in 2025 to 4.43 billion HKD, before recovering to 5.47 billion HKD by 2027 [5]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to be 6.1 for 2025, decreasing to 5.0 by 2027, indicating an attractive valuation [5]. - The report notes a temporary slowdown in growth but emphasizes the company’s long-term sustainable growth potential and generous dividend policy [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The report discusses the implementation of a self-regulatory mechanism for interbank deposit pricing, which aims to manage liquidity and stabilize the banking sector's cost of liabilities. The focus has shifted from merely controlling the scale of interbank liabilities to regulating pricing behavior [4][5][6]. - The introduction of self-regulation for non-bank interbank demand deposit rates is expected to enhance the efficiency of monetary policy transmission and alleviate pressure on bank interest margins [6][9]. - The report highlights the historical evolution of interbank liability management, emphasizing the transition from risk prevention to cost control, and outlines the regulatory framework established over the past decade [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Regulatory History Review - The regulatory framework for interbank liabilities has evolved through three main phases: establishing a risk prevention framework, deepening regulation to reduce leverage and prevent fund turnover, and focusing on cost control through pricing management [4][5][6]. Cost Management of Interbank Liabilities - The report notes that the cost of interbank liabilities remains relatively high, with significant room for further reduction. The average cost of interbank liabilities for state-owned banks was reported at 2.01%, compared to 1.52% for deposits, indicating a 48 basis point spread [13][20]. - The report emphasizes the need for enhanced management of interbank deposit pricing, particularly for time deposits, which currently do not fall under self-regulatory constraints [20][21]. Future Pathways for Self-Regulation - The report suggests that future regulatory measures may include setting upper limits on the scale of interbank demand deposits priced above self-regulatory levels and implementing self-regulation for time deposit rates [22][25]. - Preliminary estimates indicate that the self-regulation of interbank time deposits could lead to a reduction in interest expenses for banks, improving net interest margins by approximately 2 basis points [25][29]. Impact on Wealth Management Products - The report assesses the impact of interbank deposit self-regulation on wealth management products, indicating that the influence on net asset values is relatively limited due to the diverse nature of interbank deposit configurations [34][37]. - It highlights that wealth management products will continue to maintain a strong allocation to deposit-like assets, with expected fluctuations in allocation ratios [34][37].

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both the power equipment and environmental sectors [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential revaluation of power operators due to the advantages of Token deployment overseas, including lower electricity costs and digital tax exemptions [3]. - It highlights a cyclical bottom and expected reversal in the electricity market, suggesting that power operators are currently undervalued and may enter a new upward cycle post-2027 if economic growth accelerates [3]. - The report anticipates that carbon policies will become a key focus in the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan," with specific measures to control carbon emissions and enhance carbon pricing mechanisms [3]. Summary by Sections Power Operators - Focus on power operators due to the advantages of Token deployment overseas, including low electricity costs and digital tax exemptions [3]. - Current electricity supply-demand dynamics suggest a cyclical bottom, with potential for upward movement if economic conditions improve [3]. - Investment strategy includes selecting companies with computational power layouts and low PB valuations, with a preference for regional and clean energy companies [3]. Carbon Policy Outlook - The report predicts that carbon constraints will be a significant aspect of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with specific targets for carbon emissions and consumption [3]. - It suggests that carbon pricing mechanisms will mature, promoting international certification and market development [3]. Investment Recommendations - Continued optimism for hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol sectors, with specific companies recommended for investment [4]. - Emphasis on the synergy between electricity and computational power in new energy operators, with a focus on specific companies [4]. - Recommendations for investments in green electricity connections and zero-carbon parks, highlighting relevant companies [4]. Wind Power - Forecasts for wind power installations indicate a significant increase in onshore and offshore capacities for 2024 and 2025, with specific growth percentages noted [7][11]. - The report highlights the competitive bidding landscape for wind power equipment, with substantial increases in tender capacities [11][20]. Lithium Battery Sector - The report discusses the dynamics of lithium carbonate pricing and the impact of supply constraints on market sentiment [21]. - It notes the expected recovery in production rates for large-scale energy storage batteries, driven by demand trends [23]. - Investment logic focuses on the supply-demand gap and the anticipated recovery in lithium battery demand [23][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the recent airstrikes by the US and Israel on Iran, has heightened the long-term value of oil, gas, oil services, and shipping sectors [1][10] - Oil prices have surged due to concerns over the disruption of the Iran nuclear deal negotiations and increased risks in oil transportation, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices rising by 20.2% and 17.2% respectively since the beginning of the year [2][11] - The geopolitical conflict is expected to alleviate supply-demand concerns in the oil market, potentially leading to sustained increases in oil prices [3][16] - The "Three Barrel Oil" companies and oil service sectors are highlighted as having significant investment value due to their performance elasticity during rising oil prices [4][18] - The report suggests a focus on investment opportunities in the oil transportation sector due to ongoing tensions affecting shipping routes in the Middle East [19] Summary by Sections Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Prices - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has escalated, with significant military actions impacting oil transportation routes, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [1][10] - Oil prices have increased sharply, with Brent and WTI prices reaching $73.21 and $67.29 per barrel respectively, reflecting a significant rise since the start of the year [2][11] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has adjusted its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 850,000 barrels per day, down by 80,000 barrels from previous estimates [3][16] - Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, geopolitical risks are expected to maintain upward pressure on oil prices, with OPEC+ likely to pause production increases to balance market conditions [3][17] Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes the long-term growth potential of the "Three Barrel Oil" companies, which are expected to maintain high capital expenditures and expand their market presence in natural gas and refining sectors [4][18] - The oil service sector is poised to benefit from increased upstream capital expenditures, enhancing operational quality and international competitiveness [4][18] - The report recommends focusing on investment in oil transportation due to rising shipping rates and ongoing geopolitical tensions [19]

Current Strategy Viewpoints - The capital market experienced fluctuations in early February but rebounded later in the month, primarily due to reduced trading activity before the Spring Festival and short-term policy guidance [1] - The market is expected to enter a phase of economic data and policy verification, with a seasonal increase in trading activity post-Spring Festival, laying a foundation for future market performance [1] - Upcoming economic and corporate profit data, along with the National People's Congress in March, will be crucial for setting the annual policy tone and economic targets, which are significant for the capital market [1] Sector Focus - Short-term focus on safe-haven assets and resource products due to tensions in the Middle East, including precious metals and oil sectors [2] - Long-term focus on growth and cyclical sectors, with particular attention to small-cap stocks that typically perform well in spring [2] - Key sectors to watch include humanoid robots, computing, and AI, benefiting from sustained industry enthusiasm and increased risk appetite among investors [2] Macro Overview - The upcoming National People's Congress will set the tone for the annual economy, with GDP growth targets expected to be set between 4.5% and 5% [8] - Fiscal policy is anticipated to include a deficit rate of 4.0% and new special bonds totaling 5 trillion yuan, indicating a significant increase in fiscal deficit compared to last year [8] Financial Engineering - The A-share market has seen a rise in industry crowding, particularly in media and resource sectors, with the media sector showing a crowding degree of 98.25% [12][14] - The resource sector continues to perform well, with price fluctuations leading to a decrease in crowding indicators, suggesting a potential for continued upward movement [13] Electronic Communication Industry - The upcoming GTC conference is expected to showcase new chip developments from NVIDIA, reinforcing AI as a core investment theme [24] - The demand for storage products is projected to rise significantly, driven by strong AI customer needs and price increases in the DRAM market [25] Computer Industry - The rapid iteration of domestic AI large models is expected to drive significant growth in computing power investments, with a focus on world model technology advancements [28] - The demand for AI-driven applications is anticipated to increase, leading to a surge in computing needs and infrastructure investments [29] New Energy Industry - Focus on hydrogen and ammonia projects, with government support for integrated energy bases expected to drive growth in this sector [32] - The electric power equipment sector is poised for growth due to ongoing global energy demands and potential easing of import restrictions in India [32] High-end Manufacturing Industry - The humanoid robot sector is entering a phase of mass production, with significant advancements showcased during the Spring Festival [35] - The North American AI supply chain remains robust, with ongoing demand for advanced equipment and materials expected to drive growth [36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the pharmaceutical sector, emphasizing a positive outlook for the recovery of the industry [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The report expresses a strong belief in the recovery of the pharmaceutical sector, reiterating the investment thesis based on the "three stages of clinical value": 1) "0→1" technological breakthroughs in innovative drugs and devices; 2) "1→10" clinical validation of high-quality domestic innovative drugs; 3) "10→100" efficiency in the Chinese pharmaceutical industry [2][19][20]. - The report highlights the acceleration of BD (Business Development) for innovative drugs and the growth of domestic CXO (Contract Research Organization) companies, as well as the rise of high-end medical devices and high-value consumables [2][20]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Last week, the A-share pharmaceutical index rose by 0.50%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.58 percentage points and the ChiNext index by 1.82 percentage points, ranking 25th among 31 sub-industries [1][14]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Medical Health Index fell by 6.07%, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 4.96 percentage points [1][14]. R&D Progress - Recent clinical applications include CMS-D008 injection from Kangzhe Pharmaceutical and KC1036 tablets from Kangchen Pharmaceutical, both newly undertaken; IND applications for HSK46575 tablets from Haishike and other products are also in progress [1][24]. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their potential in the innovative drug sector and medical devices: - Innovative drugs: Innovent Biologics (H), Yifang Biologics (U), Tianjin Pharmaceutical - CXO companies: WuXi AppTec (A+H), Proprius - High-end medical devices: Mindray Medical, United Imaging Healthcare, Weisi Medical [2][20]. Financial Forecasts and Valuations - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for their financial performance [3]. - For instance, Tianjin Pharmaceutical is projected to have an EPS of 0.77 yuan in 2025 with a PE of 19, while Innovent Biologics is expected to reach an EPS of 0.49 yuan with a significantly higher PE of 154 [3]. Important Updates - The report includes updates on clinical trial approvals and progress for various companies, indicating ongoing innovation and development within the sector [23][24]. - It also notes the stability of prices for key pharmaceutical raw materials and the overall performance of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry, which saw a year-on-year revenue decline of 1.2% [28][45].

2026 年 3 月 1 日 行业研究 聚变登上春晚，Helion 宣布重大突破，国内多项目进展值得期待 建议关注：1、链主公司：合锻智能、联创光电、国光电气； 2、上游供应链：1）真空室及内部件：合锻智能、国光电气、安泰科技、派克 新材、久立特材、天工国际（H）；2）磁体系统：联创光电、永鼎股份、精达 股份；3）电源系统：王子新材、旭光电子、四创电子、赛晶科技（H）。4）低 温系统：中泰股份、杭氧股份、冰轮环境、雪人集团。 风险提示：产业进展不及预期风险，产业政策风险，产业链竞争加剧风险。 机械行业 买入（维持） 作者 ——可控核聚变行业系列报告之五 要点 合肥夸父园区亮相央视春晚合肥分会场，看好聚变产业的发展确定性。 2 月 16 日央视春晚合肥分会场，合肥夸父园区亮相；中国工程院万元熙院士入镜，并提 出期许，"核聚变的'太阳'，必将点亮万家灯火"。夸父园区即"聚变堆主机 关键系统综合研究设施"，主要作用是为聚变实验堆和工程堆核心部件的研发及 建设保驾护航。万院士是合肥等离子体所的核心专家，也是国家重大科学工程东 方超环（EAST）装置的项目负责人。而 EAST 装置是世界上第一个实现全超导、 非圆截面的 ...