2025 年 12 月 6 日 总量研究 公募 REITs 扩围至商业不动产，二级市场价格波动下跌 ——REITs 月度观察（20251101-202501130） 要点 1、 一级市场 截至 2025 年 11 月 30 日，我国公募 REITs 产品数量达 77 只，合计发行规模达 1993.01 亿元（不含扩募）。从底层资产类型来看，截至 2025 年 11 月 30 日， 交通基础设施类发行规模最大，共发行 687.71 亿元，园区基础设施类 REITs 发 行规模次之，为 329.33 亿元。 根据上交所及深交所项目动态披露，截至 2025 年 11 月 30 日，共有 20 只 REITs 处于待上市状态，其中 13 只为首发 REITs，另外 7 只为待扩募 REITs。 2、 二级市场表现 价格走势：2025 年 11 月 1 日-2025 年 11 月 30 日（以下简称"本月"），我 国已上市公募 REITs 的二级市场价格整体呈现波动下行的趋势。与其他主流大类 资产相比，回报率由高至低排序分别为：黄金>纯债>REITs>原油>美股>可转债>A 股。 从项目属性来看，产权类 REITs 和 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The convertible bond market rose slightly this week, and the equity market also had a small increase. Given the current volatility in the equity market, high - price and high - valuation convertible bonds may face adjustment pressure, and trading convertible bonds is difficult. It is recommended to comprehensively consider convertible bond terms and underlying stock conditions, select bonds carefully, and focus on structural opportunities and new bonds in high - prosperity industries [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情 - From December 1, 2025, to December 5, 2025 (5 trading days), the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by +0.08% (last week's change was -0.27%), and the CSI All - Share Index changed by +0.77% (last week's change was +2.82%). Since 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index has risen by +16.27%, and the CSI All - Share Index has risen by +21.60% [1]. - By rating, high - rated bonds (AAA), medium - high - rated bonds (AA+), medium - rated bonds (AA), medium - low - rated bonds (AA -), and low - rated bonds (AA - and below) had weekly changes of +0.09%, -0.26%, -0.89%, -1.17%, and -1.31% respectively, with all but high - rated bonds declining [1]. - By convertible bond size, large - scale convertible bonds (bond balance > 2 billion yuan), medium - large - scale convertible bonds (balance between 1.5 and 2 billion yuan), medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 1 and 1.5 billion yuan), small - medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 0.5 and 1 billion yuan), and small - scale convertible bonds (balance < 0.5 billion yuan) had weekly changes of -0.93%, -0.57%, +0.46%, -0.90%, and -1.37% respectively, with all but medium - scale convertible bonds declining [2]. - By conversion parity, ultra - high - parity bonds (conversion value > 130 yuan), high - parity bonds (conversion value between 120 and 130 yuan), medium - high - parity bonds (conversion value between 110 and 120 yuan), medium - parity bonds (conversion value between 100 and 110 yuan), medium - low - parity bonds (conversion value between 90 and 100 yuan), low - parity bonds (conversion value between 80 and 90 yuan), and ultra - low - parity bonds (conversion value < 80 yuan) had weekly changes of -2.74%, -1.23%, -1.67%, +0.11%, -0.89%, -1.31%, and -0.30% respectively, with all but medium - parity bonds declining [2]. Convertible Bond Price, Parity, and Conversion Premium Rate - As of December 5, 2025, there were 407 outstanding convertible bonds (410 at the end of last week), with a balance of 556.996 billion yuan (561.091 billion yuan at the end of last week). The average convertible bond price was 129.56 yuan (130.12 yuan at the end of last week), with a percentile of 90.38% (from the beginning of 2023 to December 5, 2025). The average convertible bond parity was 100.82 yuan (100.90 yuan at the end of last week), with a percentile of 87.69%. The average convertible bond conversion premium rate was 30.76% (30.39% at the end of last week), with a percentile of 34.51% [3]. Convertible Bond Performance and Allocation Direction - Given the current situation, it is recommended to comprehensively judge based on convertible bond terms and underlying stock conditions, select bonds carefully, and focus on structural opportunities and new bonds in high - prosperity industries [4]. Convertible Bond Increase Situation - The top 15 convertible bonds in terms of weekly increase are listed, including YaKe Convertible Bond, WeiDao Convertible Bond, etc., along with their underlying stocks, industries, latest closing prices, convertible bond increases, and underlying stock increases [20].

Group 1: Banking Sector Insights - The report anticipates a continued decline in credit activity due to insufficient demand and seasonal factors, with November loan growth expected to show a year-on-year decrease [1] - Government bonds remain the primary contributor to social financing, with the month-end growth rate projected to drop to approximately 8.4% [1] - M2 growth is expected to remain stable, while M1 growth is forecasted to decline, leading to a slight widening of the M2-M1 growth differential compared to the previous month [1] Group 2: Company Research on Andisu - Andisu is set to launch a new generation of sodium butyrate products, Sanion Tetra, and has released the latest version of the "Mackev Nutrition Guide" to assist global feed manufacturers [2] - The company's projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is estimated at 1.318 billion, 1.535 billion, and 1.784 billion respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continued decline in credit activity, with November's loan growth expected to remain lower year-on-year. The social financing growth is primarily supported by government bonds, with a projected month-end growth rate of around 8.4% [4][10]. - The economic environment shows signs of weak recovery, with corporate production activities slightly improving and external uncertainties diminishing. However, overall demand remains weak [4]. - The report predicts that November will see new RMB loans between 250 billion to 400 billion, with a month-end growth rate dropping to 6.3% to 6.4% [4][13]. - The structure of credit shows a seasonal rebound in corporate loans, while retail loans continue to face pressure, particularly in the mortgage sector [6][7]. Summary by Sections Credit Activity - November's new RMB loans are expected to be between 250 billion to 400 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 180 billion to 300 billion, leading to a month-end growth rate of 6.3% to 6.4% [4][10]. - Corporate short-term loans are anticipated to see a seasonal increase, while medium to long-term loans will also rise but remain limited due to weak demand [6]. Social Financing - The report forecasts new social financing of 2 to 2.2 trillion, with a month-end growth rate of 8.4% to 8.5%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 160 billion to 360 billion [10][11]. - Government bonds are expected to contribute significantly to social financing growth, accounting for approximately 60% of the increase [11]. Monetary Supply - M2 growth is expected to remain stable, while M1 growth is projected to decline due to a high base effect from the previous year [17]. - The report notes a shift in government deposits towards resident and corporate deposits, impacting the overall deposit growth dynamics [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is set to launch a new generation of sodium butyrate products, Sanion Tetra, to strengthen its leadership in animal health management. Additionally, the updated McCaw® Nutrition Guide will provide global feed manufacturers with systematic vitamin nutrition references [1][2]. - The company is expanding its product and service matrix, focusing on high-concentration sodium butyrate solutions, which align with the global trend of reducing antibiotic use in livestock and promoting sustainable nutrition [2][3]. - The company is accelerating the development of specialty products and deepening its layout in the animal nutrition and health sector, supported by a "dual pillar" strategy that aims to balance its business structure while maintaining its global leadership in methionine [3]. Summary by Sections Product Development - The launch of Sanion Tetra aims to enhance the company's product matrix in animal health resilience management and respond to industry trends [2]. - The updated McCaw® Nutrition Guide expands the classification of animal species and production stages, providing comprehensive updates on recommended values based on current feed efficiency levels and new formulation technologies [2]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to benefit from its dual pillar strategy while maintaining its leadership in the methionine industry. The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is as follows: net profit of 1.318 billion, 1.535 billion, and 1.784 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.49, 0.57, and 0.67 yuan per share [4][10]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 17.866 billion, 20.545 billion, and 23.627 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15.01%, 15.00%, and 15.00% respectively [10]. Profitability and Efficiency - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of 28.8% in 2025, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 7.97% [12][13]. - The operating profit margin is forecasted to be 11.1% in 2025, indicating a strong operational efficiency [12].

Group 1: Industry Research - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the expansion of public REITs into the commercial real estate sector, providing opportunities to revitalize a trillion-yuan asset market and accelerate market expansion [1] - The introduction of public REITs comes at a time when the real estate sector is under pressure, prompting a shift from "heavy development" to "heavy operation" for companies [1] - The report emphasizes the need for regulatory alignment and the importance of product valuation and operational quality in the short term, while anticipating accelerated market development with the expansion of product categories and regulatory improvements [1] Group 2: Company Research - The report notes that the company, Jerry Holdings (002353.SZ), has secured over 100 million USD in orders from North American data centers, leading to an upward revision of the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 by 0.6%, 5.1%, and 9.4% to 3.07 billion, 3.80 billion, and 4.58 billion yuan respectively [2] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 3.00, 3.71, and 4.47 yuan respectively [2] - The report indicates that as electricity demand in North America continues to grow, the company's service scope is expanding, and the power sector is expected to create a third growth curve for the company, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On November 28, 2025, the CSRC issued the "Announcement on Launching the Pilot Program of Commercial Real Estate Investment Trusts (Request for Comments)" to solicit opinions on the pilot program of commercial real estate investment trusts. On December 1, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission expanded the industry scope of infrastructure REITs to include commercial office facilities and urban renewal facilities, and added sub - categories such as stadiums, commercial complexes, and four - star and above hotels in consumer infrastructure [3][10][14]. - Launched during the real estate downturn, it provides an opportunity to revitalize the trillion - dollar commercial and office market. It can improve the asset structure of enterprises, help the real estate industry transform into a new development model, and enrich the types of underlying assets in the domestic public REITs market [3][10]. - It is necessary to pay attention to the institutional connection, and detailed rules are still awaited. The overall institutional framework of commercial real estate REITs follows that of infrastructure public REITs, and the specific categories and review mechanisms need further clarification. Implementing a dual - track review system may improve efficiency and accelerate market expansion. The applicability of the key expansion and recruitment mechanism and pilot tax policies in commercial REITs also needs attention [3]. - The secondary market of infrastructure public REITs is under short - term pressure. The valuation and operation quality of new products are the keys. The historical average dividend yields of Japanese office building REITs and hotel REITs are similar to those of current infrastructure public REITs equity - type products [3]. - Investment advice: In a low - interest - rate environment, high - dividend public REITs have an obvious interest - rate spread advantage. With the expansion of categories and improvement of the system, the market is expected to develop rapidly. Attention should be paid to the progress of new - category projects, products with strong underlying asset demand, and expansion and recruitment [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Public REITs Expand to the Commercial Field - On November 28, 2025, the CSRC solicited opinions on the pilot program of commercial real estate investment trusts, with the feedback deadline on December 27, 2025 [10]. - The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting the expansion of infrastructure REITs to more industries and asset types. On December 1, 2025, it issued the "List of Industry Scope of Infrastructure Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Projects (2025 Edition)", expanding to commercial office facilities, urban renewal facilities, and adding sub - categories in consumer infrastructure [14]. - In Q3 2024, there were 736 five - star hotels in China, accounting for 43.5% of the operating income of star - rated tourist hotels, and 2073 four - star hotels, accounting for 37.6%. The scope of the new expansion includes commercial office facilities (super - A and A - grade commercial buildings in super - large and large cities) and urban renewal projects (old - block and old - factory renovation projects), with isolation mechanisms set up [12]. 3.2 The CSRC Solicits Opinions on the Commercial REITs Pilot - Product definition: A commercial real estate investment trust fund is a closed - end publicly offered securities investment fund that invests in commercial real estate asset - backed securities to obtain the ownership or operating rights of commercial real estate, operates and manages commercial real estate to obtain stable cash flows such as rent and fees, and distributes the main income to fund share holders [15]. - Application process: To apply for the raising of a commercial real estate investment trust fund, the fund manager should submit the registration application materials stipulated by the "Securities Investment Fund Law" and the CSRC to the CSRC [20]. - Current situation of infrastructure public REITs: The current application process is "local NDRC - national NDRC - CSRC", with a long review process and a relatively small market scale. As of November 30, 2025, the issuance scale of the public REITs market (initial offering and expansion and recruitment) was about 209.5 billion yuan, and the market value was about 219.9 billion yuan. For commercial real estate assets with a higher degree of marketization, applying only to the CSRC can shorten the review process and accelerate market expansion [25]. - The scale of China's commercial real estate is huge, about 40 - 50 trillion yuan. Some enterprises are preparing for relevant application work, such as Fosun's progress in the independent listing plan of Sanya Atlantis through the REITs model [25]. 3.3 Pay Attention to the Institutional Connection - The overall institutional framework of commercial real estate REITs follows that of infrastructure public REITs. The "Request for Comments on Commercial REITs" is more concise in terms of the requirements for fund managers and custodians, fund manager responsibilities, and asset requirements. The asset sub - types in the "List of Industry Scope of Infrastructure Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Projects (2025 Edition)" are more specific [26]. - Implementing a dual - track review system for infrastructure public REITs and commercial real estate REITs can provide more choices for issuers, improve review efficiency, and accelerate market expansion. The applicability of the expansion and recruitment mechanism and pilot tax policies in commercial REITs needs attention [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company has secured multiple contracts exceeding $100 million for gas turbine generator sets, marking a significant entry into the North American data center market [1] - The company aims to create a comprehensive lifecycle solution starting with gas turbine generator sets, leveraging its modular and intelligent power generation solutions to meet the growing electricity demand in North America [2] - Strategic partnerships with international giants like Baker Hughes and Siemens have been established to ensure core production capacity for future order demands in data centers [3] Financial Projections - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards by 0.6%, 5.1%, and 9.4% to reach 3.07 billion, 3.80 billion, and 4.58 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.00, 3.71, and 4.47 yuan [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 16.50 billion, 19.65 billion, and 22.84 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 23.58%, 19.06%, and 16.25% respectively [5] - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of approximately 33% over the forecast period, with a projected return on equity (ROE) increasing from 12.7% in 2023 to 15.0% in 2027 [10] Market Position - The company is positioned to develop its power segment as the third growth curve following its drilling and natural gas segments, driven by expanding electricity demand in North America [2][4] - The current market capitalization is approximately 61.35 billion yuan, with a total share count of 1.024 billion shares [6] Valuation Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 25 in 2023 to 13 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [11] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 3.2 in 2023 to 2.0 in 2027, reflecting a strengthening balance sheet [11] Operational Highlights - The company’s gas turbine generator sets are designed for rapid transport and flexible expansion, addressing challenges such as tight project timelines and limited space [2] - The company has initiated business and team development in various lifecycle service areas, including small modular reactor (SMR) power supply and data center management [2] Strategic Partnerships - The company has signed a global strategic cooperation agreement with Baker Hughes for the NovaLT™ gas turbine, ensuring future production capacity [3] - A strategic cooperation agreement with Siemens has also been established to enhance the company’s capabilities in gas turbine technology [3]

Group 1: Automotive Industry - The delivery data for new forces in November shows a weakening of the year-end peak season effect, with significant purchase discounts from automakers [1] - Recommended stocks include NIO and Xpeng Motors, with a focus on low valuation and performance realization [1] - In the parts sector, recommended stocks are Fuyao Glass for its strong performance and overseas expansion, and Wuxi Zhenhua, Huguang Co., and Bojun Technology for their cheap valuations [1] Group 2: Aerospace and Construction Materials - The commercial aerospace sector is entering a new phase of rapid development, with a three-year action plan recently announced [2] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in the rocket sector with companies like Chaojie Co., Gaohua Technology, and Zhongheng Design, as well as in the satellite sector with firms such as Shaanxi Huada and Shanghai Port [2] Group 3: Real Estate - The sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies in November was 244.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 11.7% [3] - Cumulative sales for the top 100 companies from January to November reached 3 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 18.8%, indicating a worsening trend [3] - Investment suggestions focus on structural alpha opportunities, recommending China Jinmao, China Merchants Shekou, China Resources Mixc Life, and Greentown Service [3] Group 4: Company Research - Water Sheep Co. has announced an employee stock ownership plan, reflecting confidence in long-term development [4] - The plan involves up to 938 participants and a funding source of no more than 51.04 million yuan, with shares repurchased at 20.46 yuan per share [4] - The repurchased shares will not exceed 2.49 million shares, accounting for 0.64% of the total share capital [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Commercial space is experiencing intensive catalysts, and investment opportunities in the industry are worth attention [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commercial Space Faces Intensive Catalysts, Focus on Industry Investment Opportunities - **Three - year Action Plan for Commercial Space**: On November 25, 2025, the National Space Administration issued the "Action Plan for Promoting the High - quality and Safe Development of Commercial Space (2025 - 2027)", aiming to achieve high - quality development of commercial space by 2027, with significant growth in industry scale and innovation [3]. - **Establishment of the Commercial Space Department**: The National Space Administration has recently established the Commercial Space Department, which will promote the high - quality development of China's commercial space industry and benefit the entire industrial chain [4]. - **Satellite Internet of Things Business Commercial Test**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has launched a two - year commercial test of satellite Internet of Things business, marking the transition of China's satellite Internet industry to the commercial application exploration stage and bringing investment opportunities for the entire industrial chain [4]. - **Recommended Stocks**: In the rocket direction, recommended stocks include Chaojie Co., Ltd., Gaohua Technology, Zhongheng Design, etc.; in the satellite direction, recommended stocks include Shaanxi Huada, Shanghai Harbor, Shanghai Hanxun, etc. [4]. 3.2 Main Covered Company Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report provides earnings forecasts, valuations, and ratings for 28 companies from 2024 to 2027, including China National Building Material Group Corporation, Conch Cement, and China State Construction Engineering Corporation. Most of the investment ratings are maintained [13]. 3.3 Weekly Market Review - **Industry Index Performance**: The building and building materials industries showed certain increases this week. The building index increased by 2.43%, and the building materials index increased by 2.21%. Among them, the garden engineering index had the highest increase of 8.40% in the building sub - sectors, and the ceramic index had the highest increase of 5.60% in the building materials sub - sectors [17][19][22]. - **Stock Performance**: In the building materials industry, Hainan Ruizhe had the highest weekly increase of 22.16%, and *ST Lifang had the highest weekly decrease of 30.00%. In the building industry, Guosheng Technology had the highest weekly increase of 57.69%, and *ST Dongyi had the highest weekly decrease of 22.36% [25]. - **Infrastructure Public REITs Performance**: The average weekly increase of infrastructure public REITs was - 0.13%, the average monthly increase was - 1.23%, the average increase since the beginning of the year was 9.67%, the average 250 - day increase was 14.38%, and the average increase since IPO was 13.06% [28]. 3.4 Aggregate Data Tracking - **Real Estate Data**: It includes new construction, construction, completion, and sales area cumulative year - on - year data, land transaction data, real estate transaction data, social financing data, and infrastructure investment growth data. For example, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of national real estate new construction area continued to decline [31]. - **Eight Major Construction Central Enterprises' New Contract Signing**: The report shows the quarterly new contract signing amounts and year - on - year growth rates of eight major construction central enterprises from 2022Q1 to 2025Q3 [73]. - **Special Bond Issuance**: It includes monthly and cumulative new special bond issuance amounts and replacement special bond issuance amounts from 2022 to 2025 [75][77][79][81]. 3.5 High - frequency Data Tracking - **Cement Data**: It includes national PO42.5 cement average price, East China regional cement price trend, cement - coal price difference index, cement inventory ratio, and cement production monthly year - on - year growth rate [84][85][87][91]. - **Float Glass Data**: It includes glass spot price, glass futures price, and glass inventory [91][92][96]. - **Photovoltaic Glass Data**: It includes glass daily melting volume, soda ash price, 2mm photovoltaic glass price, and photovoltaic glass inventory [98][102][99][104]. - **Glass Fiber Data**: It includes the prices of various types of glass fiber yarns and glass fiber inventory [106][109][110][116]. - **Carbon Fiber Data**: It includes carbon fiber average price, carbon fiber raw silk price, carbon fiber production, carbon fiber inventory, carbon fiber operating rate, carbon fiber gross profit margin, carbon fiber cost, and carbon fiber gross profit [113][117][120][122][124][126][129]. - **Magnesia and Alumina Prices**: It includes the ex - factory tax - included price of large - crystal electro - fused magnesia and alumina price [126][130]. - **Upstream Raw Material Prices**: It includes asphalt price, waste paper price, PVC price, HDPE price, etc. [134][137][135][139]. - **Physical Workload Data**: It includes acrylic acid price, titanium dioxide price, high - machine rental rate, and asphalt average operating rate [141][143][144][146].